It was a familar scene in the Tampa Bay area as Robbie Ray LHP made a Quality Start but the Giants lineup was shut out for the 7'th time in 32 games this season. In case you wonder if that's a lot of shut outs, they are on a pace to set some sort of all time season record for being on the receiving end of shut outs. How's that? Shane McClanahan LHP scattered 6 hits and was helped by two GIDP's and another coaching error at 3B by Hector Borg who this time erred on the side of aggressiveness and got Luis Arraez 2B thrown out trying to stretch his double. The Giants once again drew no walks so 4 Rays pitchers faced just 3 batters over the minimum.
As we enter the second month of the season, not only is there no end in sight to the hitting futility, the cracks are starting to show in the clubhouse. A frustrated Robbie Ray said maybe there needs to be more of a sense of urgency. Tony Vitello came to the defense of his hitters by saying there is urgency behind the scenes but Robbie Ray is not in those meetings, but he understands where Robbie is coming from. Vitello used the old barbed wire analogy about how when you are caught in it, urgency can pull you in the wrong direction(I hadn't heard that one before but he does have a point).
I'm like Tony Vitello in that I am running out of fixes to propose. When half the lineup is routinely failing to register 4 PA's, it's hard to say a different batting order or replacing one or two players is going to make a significant difference. One thing that seems clear to me is some of this is by design and the barbed wire analogy does fit. The Giants are overcompensating for last years strikeouts by swinging at more pitches earlier in counts and the cost is fewer walks and less power.
There is a reason why OPS became THE stat of the Moneyball Era. Yes, I know there are other, newer stats but for all practical purposes it's the best predictor of run production out there. And yes, I know Oracle Park plays different than other parks but if you are going to try to win with a high contact approach, you must have great pitching, cannot make mistakes, must steal some bases and must successfully play some "small ball".
Landen Roupp RHP tries to stop the 4-game losing streak today facing Griffin Jax RHP who comes in with a 6.35 ERA.
Really the most concerning thing about the offense so far is how Adames and Devers aren’t getting walks. They were both amongst the league leaders in walks last year and are historically really good at getting walks but this year both are hard getting the free pass. Did the team try to change their approach to make them more contact oriented or something?
ReplyDeleteI do think the organization sent a team wide message to swing more and earlier to cut down on K's. Adames, in particular, looks like he's basically up there swinging at everything. As Kruk pointed out, Devers is swinging right through fastballs down the pipe. If pitchers know he can't hit the fastball for whatever reason, they have no reason to nibble around the corners and risk walking him.
DeleteMorning Doc. A couple weeks back I was getting annnoyed by all the naysayers and people with here knickers in knotts. i said I would wait until the end of April to more deeply comment > expecting the Giants to be at least at 500 ball.
ReplyDeleteI toyed with making some notes and assessing grades on the players/management etc.
I could not seem to organize my thoughts in a coherent fashion on how to rate.
Then I thought > What is the real problem? Again looked at individual players etc and could not put my finger on who are the problems.
Now as I am typing this now > all I can think is what Laurel said to Ollie > "here's another fine mess you put us into!"
So I say Buster better bust his britches along with Zack and do something soon and fast.
What could that be >look down at the farm and bring some of the lads like maybe Whiz and Seymour and our young future 1st baseman and Rodriquez and change the chemistry. Or the maybe the season from Hell!
Richard in Winnipeg
Something is way, way off with this team and it's hard to know where to start. To me, the most glaring issues are with Adames, Devers and the Closer role. Sure, you can bring up some kids but until they figure out fixes for those issues, I don't see it doing much good.
DeleteI am sure, should Buster and Minasian read this, they will be very appreciative of your insight.
DeleteI feel the Giants have become a dysfunctional franchise. I think Buster might be in over his head and the ownership group needs to modernize instead of being stuck in trying to replicate what won those three championships. Was Farhan great? No but, there has to be some embrace of analytics. My hope is the kids will come up and we can change the culture.
DeleteArraez 101 OPS+
DeleteChapman 100 OPS+ (= exactly average)
Encarnacion 24 OPS+
Bailey 24 OPS+
Bader -4 OPS+ (minus!)
Schmitt's team leading 4 HRs ranks him tied for 64th in MLB and his .883 OPS has him tied for 28th.
What happens to the Giants' "Best Player" if Eldridge is called up?
The Giants outfield (Ramos, Gilbert, and Lee) have OPS+ above 100 (106 , 109, and 123 respectively).
What can Vitello do with this mess? His team is last in HRs and next-to-last in OPS.
Doc, what are the real chances of moving on from Adames and Devers. Any chance? Or are we stuck with them. The team has $550 million tied up in Chapman, Devers and Adames. I think Devers contract expires in 2033. What a mess.
ReplyDeleteUnless things drastically change between now and the trade deadline, I think it's time for Buster to do the unthinkable and being open to trading guys like Chapman and Webb on top of trading Ray and Arraez. I'd be even open to trading Ramos. It hasn't worked and I don't think it's gonna get any better, it's time to blow it up.
ReplyDeleteRay must be feeling like Verlander last year.
ReplyDeleteI think Chapman and Adames have no trade clauses in their contracts. They would have to agree to waiving the clauses.
ReplyDeleteEven with no trade clauses they may want a change of scenery. They are looked at as albatrosses on this team. I'm sure they don't want to be viewed this way. They still have egos. I just wonder if Buster/team will need to sweeten the pot to get someone to take them.
DeleteI think the coaches have to stop calling pitches from the sidelines. It works in college, not so much in the pros.
ReplyDeleteDo we know that is happening? Did the coaches call 7 consecutive splitters from Winn, or whatever it was?
DeleteSusan Slusser has an interesting article about this on MSN with extensive quotes from Buster.
DeleteIt appears "no, they are not," but, maybe they are suggesting things?
This is a weird link, so if you want to read it you might just google (susan slusser on calling pitches from the dugout).
Actual link:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/giants-might-not-be-quick-to-join-mlb-teams-calling-pitches-from-the-bench/ar-AA1Xw74W?apiversion=v2&domshim=1&noservercache=1&noservertelemetry=1&batchservertelemetry=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1
I’m think it’s been a rough road trip, but I think that if the relief pitching (i.e. closer situation) can be improved the G’s have a fighting chance. The two lost games after leading in the 9th were somewhat morale busting for the team and fans. I don’t think the nihilist approach is the answer yet.
ReplyDeleteFWIW from "Winners and Whiners" betting site:
ReplyDelete"San Francisco has leaned heavily on pitching early this season, but the offense continues to hold this team back. The Giants are averaging just 3.2 runs per game, ranking dead last in Major League Baseball, and that lack of production has started to show during recent losses. Luis Arraez has been the most consistent bat, hitting .303, but he has yet to hit a home run, highlighting the lack of power throughout the lineup. Casey Schmitt leads the team with just four home runs, which underscores how limited this offense has been in generating big innings.
"On the mound, Landen Roupp has been outstanding, entering this matchup at 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. He’s also struck out 37 batters across 35.1 innings, showing both control and swing-and-miss ability. The Giants bullpen has also been elite, ranking second in MLB with a 3.14 ERA, giving them a clear advantage late in games. However, San Francisco is just 6-10 on the road, and with the offense struggling to support quality pitching, the margin for error remains extremely thin.
" Both recent trends and matchup dynamics point toward a lower-scoring game. Tampa Bay has played under the total in eight of its last 10 games, while San Francisco has gone under in six of its last 10. The Giants’ offense is also one of the weakest in baseball, and even against a struggling starter, they haven’t shown the ability to consistently generate runs. On the flip side, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff is beginning to trend in the right direction, limiting opponents and keeping games under control.
"With Roupp expected to deliver another strong outing and the Rays pitching staff improving, this game sets up as a grind-it-out matchup, take the under."
https://winnersandwhiners.com/free-picks/mlb/san-francisco-giants-vs-tampa-bay-rays-picks-and-prediction-for-saturday-may-2-2026
The Under was a winner
DeleteThe Rays (20-12) are heavy favorites tomorrow — an 0 -6 road trip?
DeleteThey are coming home for 3-game series with San Diego (19-12) and Pittsburgh (18-16).
Then they have 4 in LAD (20-12), 3 in Sac (17-16), and 3 in AZ (16-16).
Next 17 games are against no team with a losing record.
Will the Giants season be all but over on May 20th?
the Giants were willing to risk defense for offense by signing Adames and Devers and it has netted them almost nothing to-date. Posey has to be surprised and dismayed at this point. the weak offense seems to have been a thing for this team for years. Why?!?! moves to solve it have failed - it's weird. i maintain the Houser/Mahle signings were Ouija level stuff and while he's new, i am laying almost none of this on Vitello. -es
ReplyDeleteWant more bad news on Devers?
ReplyDeleteJames Tibbs III leads the PCL with 11 HRs. If anyone has forgotten, he was part of the trade for Devers and is now a AAA Stud for They-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named.
Oh, and by the way, Kyle Harrison appears to be a near Ace with Milwaukee, as he is 2-1 in his 5 starts and leads the Brewers starters in ERA and WAR (tie).
It's no consolation that the Red Sox traded off both of these 2, and they and the Giants are both last in their Divisions...
Tibbs didn't do anything (fairly small sample size) in the minors with Boston either. Red Sox flat out gave Tibbs away, for few ineffective weeks of Dustin May.
DeleteNot sure what they're teaching down south, but it's been going on for a while now, fixing bats (Turner, Taylor, Muncy come to mind).
Giants seemed spooked by Harrison's loss of velocity. Doesn't seem to be an issue now. At the time of the Devers trade, both players were viewed as somewhat damaged/limited assets, and I, along with most, felt it was good trade for Giants. In my mind, the Sox were mostly dumping salary on a talented player who they'd soured on.
Not trying to read too much into it...but really, how can we not question what's happening with talent assessment and development here...
They hired 3 new pitching coaches Justin Message, Christian Wonders, and Frank Anderson to help pitching development. It was surprising the previous pitching coaches couldn't help Birdsong solve his issues, and Harrison didn't improve when he was here..Randy Winn and Buster Posey have said that they won't rush prospects thru each level which is a good thing. Patrick Bailey didn't get many abs in the higher minors. Talent assessment and development- it remains to be seen if Buster and Randy Winn can turn that around.
DeleteTalent assessment and development have not been as good since the championship years .Once that improves then the team should start winning consistently. Haven't given up on this year, too many games left. Go Giants!
Delete