Well, we can finally stop debating about whether the Giants should sign Pete Alonso. He is finally, officially going back to the Mets for a a little over half of what he turned down in the past. The deal is what we've come to expect from Scott Boras clients after he's badly misread the market: 2 yr/$54 M. It includes $10 M signing bonus and a player option for 2026. He reportedly will make $30 M in 2025. Here's where the numbers don't completely add up. MLBTR reports the player option would be for $24 M but $30 M + $24 M + $10 M = $64 M. So, we'll need some clarification on this.
That's probably a reasonable price for Alonso but would not fit into the Giant payroll structure due to the QO hit, CBT tax hit and the hated opt-out, although again, the front-loading of the contract makes the opt-out a bit more palatable. Again, I am excited to see what Juan Encarnacion, Luis Matos and Marco Luciano can do with their opportunities in 2025.
I think it's worth mentioning that this is the second year in a row where Scott Boras appeared to misjudge the market on not just one, but several players. Last year it was the "Boras Four". This year's it's the Boras Three", Jack Flaherty, Alonso and Alex Bregman(in fairness, we don't know what Bregman will ultimately get but with less than 10 days before spring training camps open, his market is not looking great). For Alonso's part, he once turned down a $100 M extension a year ago and Jon Heyman reports he turned down a 3 yr/$71 M deal earlier this offseason. That was a bigger guarantee but the current contract holds open the possibility that he could ultimately make more than $71 M over the next 3 seasons.
Next year, Alonso should get a new agent. In terms of Encarnacion, he doesn’t have any more options left, does he? That means he either makes the big league team in spring training, or he’ll have to go through waivers. Luciano only has one left, if I remember correctly. His time to shine is under the gun, too!
ReplyDeleteNot mad that the Posey didn't sign Alonso..nor that upset that they didn't sign GRICHUK either but I am upset that no improvements were made to the OF and the sorry state of it going into the season...Not a singe one of the the three starters (Lee, Ramos, Yaz) doesn't have a huge question mark next to their name..and then you have a never was never will be in Encarnacion...and then a little potential (but also possible to be potentially Bad) in the likes of McCRay, Matos, Lucianno, Meckler....But they will get their chances....well unless Jake Lamb and Brad Wisley are the OFs! Are we sure FZ is gone??? And OF is even better than 1B! Disappointed big time in BUSTER so far..well unless the job is to tank this year.
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
SteveVA
I'm going to write a post about it but I was looking at the Giants Opening Day lineup and roster on the 2010 team. The starting pitching was better in 2010 and they had a couple of monster prospects almost ready in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, but beyond that the current roster is quite a bit better.
DeleteHow does Buster and the Giants figure out which of that list of young players is going to blossom into stars without playing them and how do they play them if they sign a veteran that blocks them? Do you just give up on all of them? Yes, I know it's possible, even likely, that they all end up washing out, but I will be exhilarated when 1 or 3 turn into cornerstones for future greatness.
DeleteSign Bregman, trade YtY and Wade to pay for it (+$15M) with open slots in the outfield, infield, 1B, DH, and days off (for everyone).
DeleteDoc, I guess I just don't see it..will wait for your post...The way I see it, for a competent, winning MLB team, How are Lee,(huge questions) Ramos (1/2 Good year) and Yaz (really only good in the field now) not question marks?? Followed by all the unproven kids who have shown nothing at their brief shots in MLB (I think only MATOS might be near ready --give him a full time shot)? But i do agree, the only way to find out which of the bunch will rise above is to play them but then winning becomes secondary and you aer kinda tanking the season or making it a developmental one.... To add to the OF question marks, it may even be worse at 1B for this year (Wade/FLores) , 2B (nobody, but I want to see if SCHMIDT can succeed) I'll save the SP question marks and the LHRP arson squad for another post..Bottom line to me is that, if winning matters, the Giants are in for a rough season....If winning is secondary then, yeah, pitch and play the kids and let them learn and see who you want o move forward with...Trying to do both will not be possible in my opinion.
DeletesteveVA
Sorry anon, Bregman is not going to be a Giant. I just read he is still holding out for a 6 or 7 year contract.
DeleteI just don't think it's realistic to think Buster could have or should have tried to build a team with comparable talent to the Dodgers in one offseason. I see this offseason as the first step in 2 or 3 to build a stable, contending roster. In the meantime I will keep hope alive and as in 2010 think maybe a few things break right and they get into the playoffs where anything can happen.
DeleteI think it's a false dichotomy to say it's either winning or tanking with no in-between.
DeleteNot so sure doc, i've seen too many times in too many sports where GMs try to modify/retool instead of rebuilding or going for it and end up being in the morass of o the middle mediocrity like theGgiants were under FZ. Perhaps an adroit GM can walk that tightrope..is Buster that Guy? If I look at the player he has so far, i say no but i'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt..and hope..
DeleteSteveVA
Alonso is very unhappy with Boras and reports say that he is going to fire Boras. H-S Kim also unhappy. Jordan Montgomery fired Boras last season and Chapman and Burnes had to come up with something on their own. I don't see a mass exodus from Boras but I think players are going to think twice before hooking up with him.
ReplyDeleteYes, agree, too much money for the Giants plus losing draft picks and int'l money. Yikes, think about when the Mets play the Dodgers. To watch Alonso, Soto, Lindor, Vientos, Ohtani, Mookie, Freeman, Teoscar and more bat in one game will be interesting. Of course, some of the talent should be spread out so fans in other areas could watch these stars. But hey, this is the way pro sports have been trending. The NBA, NFL and MLB are all trending a larger gap between the haves and the have littles. The one hope we have is that the Giants (or other smaller market teams) win a wild card team, then in a playoff series catch fire.
ReplyDeleteWhat is your over under on wind for the Giants? Realistically (and perhaps optimistically), my over/under is 82 wins.
I know what the projections say as well as anyone. They are not wrong, just quantifying the most likely outcome. I'm going to be optimistic and say a lot of things are going to go right, they win 90 games and win at least one playoff round.
DeletePECOTA came up with a projection of 78-84. I feel its probably too low and I'm thinking 84-78, but that's pretty much a number out of thin air. I was reading Baseball Prospectus' article on PECOTA and PECOTA is now incorporating things like Stuffpro and Pitchpro into their calculations. The version of PECOTA now used is extremely complex but they feel its more reliable. I have a feeling DrB's estimate will come closer than PECOTA's estimate.
DeleteBookmark that!
DeleteAnd, if they win 1 series, they will go to the WS.
Bookmark that, too!
Posey came up for game 48, May 29, 2010, and played 1st base.
Giants were in 3rd place but over .500, only 2½ games out. Huff, ultimately the teams best hitter, moved to LF.
That was a very good team on both sides of the ball, mostly home grown although more than a few added players: Huff, Torres, Burrell, Sanchez, Casilla, Ross, Uribe.
MLBTR has a poll going for what division team has had the best off-season.
DeleteOf course, The Hated Ones are #1 by FAR, and the Giants are tied for last with SD (very close at the bottom).
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/poll-whos-winning-the-offseason-in-the-nl-west.html
Clarification: this is NL West division break down not MLB
DeleteI guess it depends on how you measure offseason success. If the only criteria is absolute talent regardless of cost, then yes, the Dodgers win by a mile. I have seen other analyses saying the Giants got the most value for their investment this offseason. I think we need to view this offseason as the first of 2 or 3 to build a stable contending roster. In the meantime keep a positive attitude, hope for a few breaks and maybe, like in 2010, we get the payoff ahead of schedule.
DeleteWhen Buster took over the team, one of the first things he mentioned was that he wanted the opponents to "feel them", meaning that they would become the ultimate prepared team. If he mentioned that as one of his opening remarks, it means that he felt that the Giants in previous seasons were not ready to play. Good preparation can account for a handful of wins if they learn to keep those 90 foot mistakes to a minimum.
DeleteI read the MLB trade rumors article and, while they did not provide an actual ranking, the way it was written made it seem like the Giants were ranked third, which is appropriate.
DeleteThe Giants are aware of the Dodgers' deferral strategy and could have copied them but they chose not to. Decisions of this magnitude are made by consensus so it has to be run by Jeff Barry, Minasian, Jeremy Shelley, Barr, and Evans. The main PR point is how much the Dodgers spent but no one ever mentions that the strategy carries a lot of risk.
Sometimes the best move a team can make is to not make a move for the sake of making a move. It has to make some sense.
While I can see less than .500, I will not be surprised if 90 wins. Last year we had question marks at every position but C, as well as pitchinf. Now we have question marks only at 2b, one outfield and 1b. We have a decent staff but more importantly 1-3 younger pitchers who can step up behind projected starters. I can also see 1b and OF (and dh) being really solid if Matos, etc perform close to their potential. Cautiously optimistic.
ReplyDelete"Now we have question marks only at 2b, one outfield and 1b" — and DH, that's 4 question marks and Fitz could fill 1, but there are the days off and injuries.
DeleteWho believes that the Giants "traded" Taylor Rogers just to save $6M?
ReplyDeleteCincinnati obviously thinks he's worth $6M, and they gave up a player of no known value, but better than nothing.
Apparently, Taylor wasn't worth $6M to the Giants because that's what it would have cost them to keep him.
What is this trade for, if it's not to "save" $6M?
Could Buster have a greater plan?
According to Roster-Resource, SF has $23.5M left to the 1st luxury tax threshold for 2025.
Trade YtY for a prospect and they'll have an additional $9.25M (AND an open position for Luciano, Matos, & Meckler to compete for).
Trading Wade would add $4.7M making close to $14M extra available. Maybe the Giants could get $1 or 2M relief by trading Flores with a big discount.
That makes more than $37M available below the threshold.
And, that makes Bregman and his 4 projected fWAR possible!
And possibly 90 wins for the Giants.
I've said it before, I will say it again: Alex Bregman is not going to be a Giant.
Delete