I am thinking about writing a book about the 2010 Giants and was looking back at some of my posts from early in that season. Other than Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, I find it almost shocking how bad that Opening Day roster was. So here is part of my NL West Preview post from April 4, 2010(it's archived to the left if you want to read the entire post):
San Francisco Giants:
Lineup
CF Aaron Rowand
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Pablo Sandoval
1B Aubrey Huff
LF Mark DeRosa
C Bengie Molina
2B Juan Uribe
RF Nate Schierholtz
Bench
John Bowker, Andres Torres, Eugenio Velez, Eli Whiteside, Travis Ishikawa
Rotation
Tim Lincecum
Barry Zito
Matt Cain
Jonathan Sanchez
Todd Wellemeyer
Bullpen
Brian Wilson(closer), Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Brandon Medders, Dan Runzler, Waldis Joaquin, Guillermo Mota(likely).
DL Freddy Sanchez
Summary: The Giants have the worst lineup in the division, by far. The question is whether it is enough less bad than last year to support the pitching into the playoffs. Sandoval could be a superstar, but has to prove last year wasn't a fluke. Schierholtz could emerge as a solid hitter, but might not even keep his job all season, heck, he might not even be the starting RF on opening day! If every hitter in the lineup has at least a career average year, it just might be good enough. That's a fairly long bet though. The pitching staff is the best in the division if not in all of baseball. We all know about LIncecum and Cain, but Sanchez is poised to be every bit as good if he can just stay within himself and keep the walks down. Zito is an innings eater. He needs to at least equal last year's performance and Wellemeyer has to be a steady #5 but it's a very nice rotation. Wilson is an established closer now with Affeldt a solid setup man. Runzler and Joaquin both have shutdown stuff. It's the best bullpen in the division too.
Predictions
1. San Francisco Giants!
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres
This is an underrated division and the top 4 teams are really very close. They say pitching is 70% of the game. If that is true, the Giants have by far the best pitching in the division, and will overcome a bad hitting lineup that will be marginally improved from last year. Every team except the Padres has a legitimate case to be #1, but each team needs a lot of things to break right to win.
(Current Comments): John Bowker started in RF on Opening Day. I forgot Todd Wellemeyer was the #5 SP. He was long gone by the end of the season. Bengie Molina was traded to make room for Buster. Bumgarner came up and replace Wellemeyer and was great. Aubrey Huff and Juan Uribe far exceeded expectations as did Andres Torres who had his one and only good season. Sabes bolstered the team with some savvy midseason acquisitions including Pat Burrell and Cody Ross. I think that was the year he brought in Javy Lopez too. Barry Zito had a terrible season and was infamously left off the postseason roster. Rowand was terrible and I don't think Pablo had a particularly good season either. Ironically the Padres proved to be the biggest challenge to a division championship. I think it came down to the final game of the season or close to it.
What do you think of this roster and my predictions? I dare you to tell me with a straight face there was any reason to think this team could win the World Series.
Don't forget Freddy Sanchez. Pablo had a tough season and good Freddy opened up Uribe to 3rd.
ReplyDeletePretty good predictions you made!
ReplyDeleteThe 2009 Giants did finish 5th overall in the National League with 88 wins. With only 4 teams going to the playoffs, they "just missed" the post season.
In that 4-team format, 88 wins (or even fewer) did get into the playoffs a number of times. 82 wins got to the playoffs in 2005, 83 wins won the WS in 2006.
and they did that w/o Buster for most of the season
DeleteRamon Ramirez addition savvy too
ReplyDeleteJose Guillen acquisiton NOT savvy
ReplyDelete2010 was really interesting: The Giants won 1-run games 28-24, blowouts 22-13, extra innings 11-8, shutouts 17-16, and both home and away winning records.
ReplyDeleteThey also lost 9 out of 10 in June-July making things look very bleak, but then went 21-5 to go from 7 games behind to 1 game out of 1st place.
In the unlikely post season, they beat their nemesis (Braves) and the invincible Phillies.
On a personal note, my then 23-yo grandson was visiting us: his favorite team was the Texas Rangers.
Grandpa wins!
Good prediction Doc and sound reasoning on the pitching. Things can happen when you have the best GM (that year) and pitching staff in baseball. It can't be understated..I think one guy you forgot in your updated comments...was the Sabean signing the out of Oakland nowhere SANTIAGO CASILLA who had a tremendous season with the Giants and with the adroit deadline acqusititon of Lopez the Giants not only had the best bullpen in baseball but the birth of the Core Four..Simlalrly, MADBUM gave them the best rotation in the NL.
ReplyDeleteTo me, the true star of this WS was SABEAN and all the moves he made culminating with the deadline and Cody Ross. ..All his call ups and acquisitions just miraculously turned into a Perfect Storm of goodness with every role player and every Kid (Posey and MadBum).
Now, back to the other post...If everything breaks right with Verlander, Ray, Hicks and the Yutes and an LHRP comes out of nowhere...well...I'll wait for your prediction..:)
steveVA
SteveVA
Enny Romero! You heard it here first! LOL!
DeleteMore seriously, I don't think that so many things have to break all that right. Three positions that were smoking craters last season, CF, SS, 2B, should all be much better- addition of Adames, full season of Jung Hoo Lee, Fitzgerald takes over 2B. A marginal improvement at the plate for Bailey and he's at least a 6 WAR catcher. Heliot Ramos plays as well or better than last season. Then yes, one or three yutes step forward. I really don't think it's that hard to see at least a 90-Win season.
DeleteA good year and team for a book! reading your overview i thought of Posey: first year he's on a WS winning team; his last year the Giants win 107 games. so as GM he expects the 2025 team to be greater than the sum of its parts and to Compete. we will see if his vision is tenable or if this analytics driven sport does not allow for such romantic notions as "want to" to be enough to move up from 4th place in the NL West.
ReplyDeleteIf Dan Uggla got a ring for 2014, then Wellemeyer should have gotten one for 2010.
ReplyDelete