MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2023 First Round

1.  Pirates:  Paul Skenes RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.99, 27.1 IP, 14.82 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 1.86 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  11-3, 1.96, 133 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.66 GB/FB.

Dylan Crews was the consensus top prospect throughout the draft cycle but Skenes had a tremendous college season and word got out in the week leading up to the draft that the Pirates were seriously considering him.  Although Crews may well end up being the more valuable MLB player in the long run, it's hard to remember any 1-1 draft pick making such a huge immediate impact as Skenes.  Maybe he will be among the handful of durable super-ace pitchers in baseball history like Justin Verlander but given his high 90's velocity and touching triple digits, chances are there is a TJ surgery in his future at some point.  But for now, home run pick by the Pirates!

2.  Nationals:  Dylan Crews OF, College.

2024(AA):  .274/343/.446, 5 HR, 15 SB, 7.6 BB%, 23.7 K%, 211 PA.

2024(AAA):  .265/.340/.455, 8 HR, 10 SB, 8.4 BB%, 17.6 K%, 238 PA.

2024(MLB):  .218/.288/.353, 3 HR, 12 SB, 8.3 BB%, 19.7 K%, 132 PA.

The Nationals were going to draft either Crews or Skenes but had to wait for the Pirates to dictate which it would be.  Crews didn't quite set the minor leagues on fire and scuffled a bit in his small sample MLB debut but there is no reason to not expect him to be an impact player for a long time.

3.  Tigers:  Max Clark OF, HS.

2024(A):  .286/.386/.421, 7 HR, 26 SB, 14.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 333 PA.

2024(A+):  .264/.344/.421, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.3 BB%, 22.9 K%, 157 PA.

Modest power which may increase with maturity, excellent speed and defense in CF.  A+ is an agressive level for a HS draftee to reach in his first full pro season so Clark is on track to be a future impact player at he MLB level.

4.  Rangers:  Wyatt Langford OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .253/.325/.415, 16 HR, 19 SB, 9.2 BB%, 20.6 K%, 557 PA.

That's an impressive MLB debut even for a top college player in his first full pro season.  Plenty to build on here and should be in impact player for many years.

5.  Twins:  Walker Jenkins, OF, HS.

2024(FCL):  .393/.514/.571, 3 SB, 21.6 BB%, 5.4 K%, 37 PA.

2024(A):  .273/.404/.413, 3 HR, 4 SB, 18.5 BB%, 11.3 K%, 151 PA.

2024(A+):  .290/.382/.481, 3 HR, 8 SB, 11.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 152 PA.

2024(AA):  .160/.250/.200, 2 SB, 10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%, 28 PA.

Again, A+ is aggressive advancement for a HS draftee in his first full pro season.  The late season cameo at AA just gives him a look at what he has to get ready for in 2025. Super-impressive numbers at A and A+ levels.

6.  A's:  Jacob Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .455/.473/.705, 3 HR, 2 SB, 2.2 BB%, 10.8 K%, 93 PA.

2024(AAA):  .396/.448/.613, 4 HR, 7.8 BB%, 4.3 K?%, 116 PA.

2024(MLB):  .250/.314/.315, 7.8 BB%, 9.7 K%, 103 PA, 0.1 fWAR.

Wilson is the son of a former major leaguer and has an extremely advanced skill set.  Modest MLB debut impressive for first full pro season with plenty to build on.

7. Reds:  Rhett Lowder RHP, College.

2024(A+):  2-0, 2.49, 25.1 IP, 10.30 K/9, 2.13 BB/9.

2024(AA):  4-4, 4.31, 77.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.09 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 10.5 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-2, 1.17, 30.2 IP, 6.46 K/9, 4.11 BB/9.

Ratios dropped dramatically after MLB debut.  Is that second-half fatigue setting in or did he reach his talent ceiling?  I wasn't a huge Lowder fan going into the draft.  2025 should be a telling season.

8.  Royals:  Blake Mitchell C, HS.

2024(A):  .238/.376/.439, 18 HR, 25 SB, 17.0 BB%, 30.5 K%, 466 PA.

2024(A+):  .111/.200/.111, SB, 5.0 BB%, 35.0 K%, 20 PA.

HS catchers are the highest risk draft demographic.  A level is appropriate for first full season and those numbers look quite good except for a high K rate.  Would ignore the extremely small A+ sample and consider it a head start on 2025.

9.  Rockies:  Chase Dollander RHP, College.

2024(A+):  4-1, 2.83, 70.0 IP, 14.27 K/9, 3.60 BB/9.

2024(AA):  2-1, 2.25, 48 IP, 10.88, 3.56 BB/9.

Dollander was the consensus top pitcher in the draft at the start of the cycle and was #1 overall on one early ranking.  He had an OK but disappointing junior season but looks fine so far in pro ball with normal progression.

10.  Marlins:  Noble Meyer RHP, HS.

2024(A):  2-2, 2.65, 34 IP, 11.38 K/9, 6.09 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-5, 5.18, 40.0 IP, 9.45 K/9, 7.20 BB/9.

Premium HS arm who needs to develop better command of his pitches.

11.  Angels:  Nolan Schanuel, 1B, College.

2024(MLB):  .250/.343/.362, 13 HR, 10 SB, 11.2 BB%, 17.0 K%, 607 PA.

Good numbers that should get better considering he's being force-fed at the MLB level.

12.  D'Backs:  Tommy Troy SS, College.

2024(A+):  .227/.319/.347, 5 HR, 16 SB, 10.4 BB%, 22.2 K%, 288 PA.  

Somewhat polarizing prospect out of Stanford who was widely projected to go to the Giants.  Probably a good thing for the Giants D'Backs took him off the board, not that he's a failed prospect at this point.

13.  Cubs:  Matt Shaw SS, College.

2024(AA):  .279/.373/.468, 14 HR, 25 SB, 12.1 BB%, 17.5 K%, 371 PA.

2024(AAA):  .298/.395/.534, 7 HR, 6 SB, 11.2 K%, 19.7 BB%, 152 PA.

The rap on Shaw coming out of college was he might not stick at SS.  Well, the bat looks like it will play anywhere!  He is working at SS/3B and 2B in the pros.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who loves colorful descriptions said "Shaw is a power-hitting stick of dynamite who crushed pro ball after the draft.  With Nico Hoerner post-surgery, expect Shaw in the Cubs lineup somewhere from Opening Day.

14.  Red Sox:  Kyle Teel C, College.

2024(AA):  .298/.390/.462, 11 HR, 9 SB, 12.6 BB%, 22.8 K%, 382 PA.

2024(AAA):  .255/.374/.343, 2 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 123 PA.

Given FZ's fetish with catchers, I thought Teel would be the Giants pick if he fell that far.  That didn't happen but he would have been a fine pick if it did.

15. White Sox:  Jacob Gonzalez SS, College.

2024(A+):  .273/.364/.399, 3. HR, 7 SB, 11.5 BB%, 10.3 K%, 165 PA.

2024(AA):  .225/.284/.321, 5 HR, 10 SB, 6.9 BB%, 14.0 K%, 407 PA.

AA is an aggressive placement for first full pro season.  He can repeat the level and still be in good development position.

16. Giants:  Bryce Eldridge 1B/OF/RHP, HS.

2024(A):  .263/.323/.478, 10 HR, 2 SB, 7.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 229 PA.

2024(A+):  .335/.442/.618, 12 HR, 3 SB, 16.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 215 PA.

2024(AA):  .270/.325/.459, HR, SB, 7.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.

2024(AAA):  .226/.314/.226, 11.4 BB%, 31.4 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .293/.348/.512, 2 HR, 3 BB, 16 K, 46 PA.

It's still early but this is shaping up to be a draft for the ages.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants didn't miss the party with Eldridge.  Drafted as a 2-way athlete, he never pitched and hit so well out of the gate decided to concentrate on that.  Could well make his MLB debut in 2025.

17.  Orioles:  Enrique Bradfield Jr OF, College.

2024(A+):  .267/.345/.363, 3 HR, 59 SB, 10.0 BB%, 16.6 K%, 349 PA.

2024(AA)):  .287/.395/.396, HR, 15 SB, 12.5 BB%, 11.7 K%, 120 PA.

Blazing speed but not much power.  That's demographic has had it tough for over a decade but Bradfield's ratios look like he might overcome that.  Given some of Buster's statements about how he envisions constructing the Giants roster to fit the ballpark, you have to wonder if he might have popped Bradfield instead of Eldridge if he was the POBO then.

18.  Brewers:  Brock Wilken 3B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.312/.363, 17 HR, 13.4 BB%, 28.2 K%, 471 PA.

Might have been the top power hitter in the draft.  Looks like a classic 3-true outcomes guy which is a demographic I am skeptical of at the minor league level.

19.  Rays:  Brayden Taylor 3B, College.

2024(A+):  .269/.389/.513, 14 HR, 26 SB, 15.9 BB%, 24.9 K%, 383 PA.

2024(AA):  .194/.290/.435, 6 HR, 3 SB, 12.0 BB%, 36.8 K%, 125 PA.

Some analysts thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  A+ is an appropriate level with AA being an aggressive promotion.

20.  Blue Jays:  Arjun Nimmala SS, HS.

2024(FCL):  .238/.467/.571, HR, 30.0 BB%, 23.3 K%, 30 PA.

2024(A):  .232/.313/.476, 16 HR, 9 SB, 8.3 BB%, 31.3 K%, 361 PA.

Eric's take on Fangraphs:  "Nimmala is a tooled-up teenage hitter with huge power projection and a risky hit tool caused by poor breaking ball recognition."  Has time to develop skills to back back up the tools.

21.  Cardinals:  Chase Davis OF, College.

2024(A):  .232/.337/.401, 8 HR, 5 SB, 12.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, 315 PA.

2024(A+):  .301/.388/.451, 3 HR, 10.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 129 PA.

2024(AA):  .250/.323/.429, HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 16.1 K%, 31 PA.

Late helium in the draft cycle.  Not sure what to make of these numbers his A+ and AA numbers are better than his A line but smaller samples.  2025 could be a pivotal season for him.

22.  Mariners:  Colt Emerson SS, HS.

2024(A):  .293/.440/.427, 2 HR, 6 SB, 18.1 BB%, 14.0 K%, 193 PA.

2024(A+):  .225/.331/.317, 2 HR, 9 SB, 10.8 BB%, 21.6 K%, 139 PA.

Again, promotion to A+ is aggressive but seems to be the new normal and gives him a head start on 2025.

23.  Guardians:  Ralphy Velasquez C, HS.

2024(A):  .243/.362/.414, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15.0 BB%, 20.1 K%, 373 PA.

2024(A+):  .176/.275/.250, HR, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K%, 80 PA.

Ditto.

24.  Braves:  Hursten Waldrep RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-4, 2.92, 49.1 IP, 8.76 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB.

2024(AAA):  2-2, 3.38, 40.0 IP, 9.68 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 1.42 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  0-1, 16.71, 7 IP, 3.86 K/9, 10.29 BB/9, 1.10 GB/FB.

Faceplanted at MLB level but it was an aggressive promotion and a small sample.  Looks like command needs some refinement.

FB 95.8 MPH.

25.  Padres:  Dillon Head OF, HS.

2024(A, Padres):  .237/.317/.366, HR, 3 SB, 8.7 BB%, 24.0 K%, 104 PA.

2024(A, Marlins):  .333/.333/.500, 2 SB, 0.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 12 PA.

2024(ACL, Marlins):  .167/.286/.667, HR, 14.3 BB%, 28.6 K%, 7 PA.

Traded by the Padres to the Marlins for Luis Arraez.  Beset by a series of injuries after that.  Had surgery for a hip acetabular impingement. Yikes!  

26.  Yankees:  George Lombard SS, HS.

2024(A):  .232/.344/.348, 5 HR, 30 SB, 12.8 BB%, 24.0 K%, 366 PA.

2024(A+):  .226/.321/.296, 9 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.8 K%, 131 PA.

Familiar development pattern shows up again.

27.  Philies:  Aiden Miller 3B, HS.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

2024(A):  .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 10 SB, 14.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 182 PA.

2024(A+):  .258/.353/.444, 6 HR, 12 SB, 11.6 BB%, 22.1 K%, 258 PA.

2024(AA):  .190/.227/.190, SB, 0.0 BB%, 18.2 K%, 22 PA.

I read one predraft analyst who thought Miller was the best pure HS hitter in the draft.  These numbers don't contradict that notion.

28.  Astros:  Brice Matthews SS, College.

2024(A+):  .321/.423/.580, 6 HR, 10 SB, 14.4 BB%, 26.8 K%, 97 PA.

2024(AA):  .252/.376/.497, 9 HR, 16 SB, 13.3 BB%, 33.7 K%, 181 PA.

2024(AAA):  .143/.250/.190, 3 SB, 6.3 BB%, 39.6 K%, 48 PA.

Should start 2025 in AAA and should hit better.  A Mining the News note in Fangraphs says he has fringy arm strength for both SS and 3B and could move to 2B or CF in the majors.

Summary:

Wow! What first round!  It's still early and there will undoubtedly be dropouts but the early returns point to this possibly being one of the greatest draft classes of all time.  Fortunately it looks like the Giants did not miss out on drafting a gem with Eldridge at #16.

Thoughts on Brandon Crawford

 Brandon Crawford announced his retirement from Major League Baseball today in a lengthy heartfelt Instagram post.  As you read through it you can almost see crestfallen little kid leaning on the rail at Candlestick Park after what could have been the last game the San Francisco Giants ever played except now that kid has awakened from a very long dream and is still trying to convince himself it is all true.

We all know his story by now so I am not going repeat it again here but what a career and what a great Giants player!  He probably won't be a Hall of Famer in Cooperstown NY, but he's a hall of famer in my book.  He is easily the best Giants shortstop in my lifetime and arguably the best in franchise history.  He didn't have a classic shortstop body and he probably didn't have the greatest range but he had incredible balance and eye-hand coordination enabling him to make plays other shortstops don't make. Then there was the arm.  The arm was special.  An absolute cannon with pinpoint accuracy that also allowed him to make plays other shortstops don't make.  He was an incredible pleasure to watch play for 13 seasons including two World Series Championships that I am pretty sure the Giants don't win without him.  

I wish he had retired as a Giant after the 2023 season but I also understand he had to be convinced in his own mind it was time.  The Giants already announced they will honor him on April 26 which happens to be when the Texas Rangers managed by Bruce Bochy will be in town.  That's going to be some ovation!  

Hot Stove League Update: Snell To Dodgers

Several sources report that Blake Snell LHP agreed to terms with the Evil Empire for 5 years/$182 M.  Reports say $60 M is deferred reducing the AAV for "Luxury Tax" purposes from $36.4 M to around $32-33 M.  The deal includes a signing bonus of $52 M, no opt-outs, a partial no-trade clause and a $5 M "assignment bonus" in the event of a trade. 

This news likely comes as a blow to a large segment of the Giants fanbase but it may be a blessing in disguise in the long run.  Snell is for sure one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is healthy and has his pitches going.  On the other hand, that is a whole lot of money to commit to a guy who is not getting any younger and and has only had 2 seasons with an fWAR 4.0 or above.  bWAR is even more brutal. While fWAR credits him with 2 other seasons >3.0, bWAR shows two seasons of 7+ WAR but no others greater than 2.2.  The rap on Snell is he has trouble putting a whole season together, a notion he did not dispel last season, and he has trouble getting past the 5'th inning in his starts, also not dispelled last season.

Of course, since it's the Dodgers watch him win 5 consecutive Cy Young Awards.  On the other hand, the Dodgers have a horrendous recent record with injured pitchers. Perhaps the last thing their roster needs is another injury-prone pitcher?  Maybe they figure if they stockpile enough, five will be healthy at any given time?

Blake Snell would have checked off a lot of boxes for the Giants but perhaps spending less $$ on a couple of pitchers who will keep them in games and get to the 6'th and 7'th innings more often will check off more?

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Max Stassi

The Giants continued to sign players to minor league contracts.  This time they extended their catching depth by signing a veteran catcher with local ties, Max Stassi.  Stassi is from Yuba City, CA and was a 4'th round draft pick by the A's out of HS in 2009.  He has not played since 2022 due to a chronic hip condition for which he underwent surgery.  The White Sox declines their team option for 2025 making him a free agent.  

Stassi is considered a good defensive catcher but has had some decent years at the plate, the best being with the Angels 2020-2022.  He hit .278 with 7 HR in 105 PA's in 2020, .241 with 13 HR in 319 PA in 2021 and .180 with 9 HR, in 375 PA in 2022.  

I am sure the deal comes with a spring training invite and a chance to win a backup catcher role with the Giants in 2025.

MLB Draft Reviews: 2022 Giants Draft

1.  Reggie Crawford LHP, College.

As we discussed in last post, the Giants swung for the fences on a 2-way athlete which is a very reasonable approach if you are drafting in the #30 slot.  Crawford was on the fast track as a reliever but then underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in September and will likely most or all of 2025.

2.  Carson Whisenhunt LHP, College.

2024(AAA):  3-5, 5.42, 104.2 IP, 11.61 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, 1.12 GB/FB.

The Giants took chances in the first two rounds on players whose stock dropped for different reason.  With Reggie Crawford it was TJ surgery his junior year of college.  With Whisenhunt it was a PED suspension.  The injury bug came back to bite Crawford but Whisenhunt appears to be on a track to the major leagues(those actually pretty good numbers considering the extreme hitter-friendly environment of the PCL).  Whisenhunt's big pitch is the changeup which Fangraphs grades out as a 70 now with a future 80.  The fastball is not as good but still low-mid 90's.  The curveball needs improvement to be a viable third pitch.  There are pitchers ahead of him on the SP depth chart but he's on track to make his MLB debut, if needed, sometime around mid-season.

3.  William Kempner RHP, College.

2024(AFL):  0-0, 7.36, 3.2 IP, 3 BB, 7 K.

Missed all of the 2024 regular season with foot and shoulder injuries.  Made 4 appearances in the AFL.  College reliever who is on the reliever track.  Could move fast if he can stay healthy.

4.  Spencer Miles RHP, College.

2024(ACL):  0-0, 4.91, 7.1 IP, 12.27 K/9, 2.45 BB/9, 3.33 GB/FB.

Missed all of 2023 and most of 2024 with back issues.  

5.  Liam Simon RHP, College.

2024(ACL):  1-2, 112.19, 10.1 IP, 13.94 K/9, 16.55 BB/9.

Hard throwing college reliever who the Giants appeared to be converting to a bulk-innings guy when he underwent TJ surgery early in 2023.  Came back for a rehab assignment in July 2025 and was wild.  Hopefully that smooths out in his first full season back in 2025.  Potential fast mover on the reliever track.

6.  Hayden Birdsong RHP, College.

2024(AA):  4-2, 2.05, 48.1 IP, 11.36 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  1-0, 5.00, 9 IP, 14.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  5-6, 4.75, 72 IP, 11.00 K/9, 5.38 BB/9.

I forgot that Hayden Birdsong was drafted out of college.  He looks so young I just assumed he must be an overslot HS draftee like Kyle Harrison.  He is the second member of the Giants 2022 draft class to reach the majors after Wade Meckler.  He sure showed flashes of ace potential with a mid-90's FB he throws up in the zone and a hammer curveball and a pretty decent changeup too.  There was inconsistency you might expect from a rookie.  Although his place in the rotation is not assured, he seems to be near the top of the large mix of young Giants pitchers for the rotation of the future.

7.  Zach Morgan C, College.

2024(A+):  .206/.328/.302, 3 HR, 5 SB, 14.2 BB%, 17.2 K%, 239 PA.

2024(AA):  .226/.293/.333, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.6 BB%, 23.7 K%, 93 PA.

If I remember correctly he was a bat-first college catcher.  As is often the case with catching prospects, the bat has not developed and even regressed.

8.  Wade Meckler OF, College.

2024(ACL):  .228/.343/.263, 5 SB, 13.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 67 PA.

2024(A):  .235/.339/.314, HR, 13.6 BB%, 16.9 K%, 59 PA.

2024(A+):  .429/.526/.500, 21.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 19 PA.

2024(AA):  .324/.405/.378, 11.9 BB%, 23.8 K%, 42 PA.

2024(AAA):  .268/.357/.508, 8 HR, 3 SB, 9.7 BB%, 12.8 K%, 196 PA.

Meckler was the first of the 2022 Giants draftees to reach the majors in 2023 on the strength of his excellent contact and plate discipline skills.  Unfortunately he lacked power and MLB pitchers took advantage by pounding the strike zone on him.  He reportedly vowed to bulk up and get stronger.  That did not seem to make much difference through 4 rehab stops but he put on an impressive power surge for Sacramento over the final 6 weeks of the season while maintaining the contact and plate discipline.  Meck is kind of the forgotten man but he's still on the 40-man roster and the numbers scream for him to get another shot at least as a 4'th OF option.  You can now consider me the official driver of the Wade Meckler Bandwagon.

9.  Jack Choate LHP, College.

2024(A+):  1-3, 2.90, 77.2 IP, 10.08 K/9, 2.20 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-4, 5.82, 34 IP, 10.85 K/9, 4.76 BB/9.

Big, tall left with a low arm slot.  Per Eric Longenhagen his FB is fringy but backed by a much better sweeper and changeup.  Has worked as a SP so far but arm slot and pitch mix may project him more as a lefty reliever type although the changeup gives him a great weapon against RH batters too.

10.  John Bertrand LHP, College.

2024(AA):  7-9, 4.32, 146 IP, 7.34 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.96 GB/FB.

2024(AAA):  1-0, 1.80, 10 IP, 5.40 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.33 GB/FB.

FB hovers around 90 MPH so he depends on a 6-pitch mix which allows him to be an effective SP.  Has performed above expectations. Profile reminds me of Forever Giant Ty Blach.

11. Sam Bower RHP, College.

Still in the organization on the San Jose Giants roster but has never pitched a pro inning due to injuries.

12.  Tyler Vogel RHP, College.

2024(A+):  3-1, 4.74, 24.1 IP, 8.03 K/9, 4.38 BB/9.

On the reliever track.  Was on the IL from 4/25- 7/13.  Unable to find info on nature of injury.

13.  Thomas Gavello 3B, College.

2024(A+):  .193/.322/.307, 7 HR, 9 SB, 11.8 BB%, 34.2 K%, 304 PA.

Disappointing stat line in A+ ball after a solid performance at A level in 2023.

14.  Nomar Diaz C, HS.

2024(ACL):  .250/.406/.458, HR, SB, 12.5 BB%, 25.0 K%, 32 PA.

Total of just 102 PA's over 3 pro seasons.

15.  Tanner O'Tremba OF, College.

2024(A+):  .194/.320/.312, 4 HR, 10 SB, 10.7 BB%, 30.4 K%, 224 PA.

Released 8/1/2024.

16.  Andrew Kachel 2B, College.

2024(A+):  .261/.383/.335, 2 HR, 11 SB, 13.6 BB%, 25.9 K%, 228 PA.

2024(AA):  .228/.343/.386, 2 HR, SB, 10.4 BB%, 23.9 K%, 67 PA.

Strong plate discipline numbers that did not drop off after late promotion to AA.  Should get a chance to see if he can improve his AA numbers in 2025.

17.  Justin Bench 3B, College.

2024(A):  .230/.337/.329, 2 HR, 3 SB, 8.5 BB%, 23.3 K%, 189 PA.

2024(A+):  .203/.261/.250, 2 SB, 2.8 BB%, 21.1 K%, 71 PA.

Released 8/2/2024.

18.  Tanner Thach 1B, HS.  Not Signed.

19.  Cade Perkins LHP, HS.  Not Signed.

20.  Ethan Long 1B, College.  Not Signed.

Summary:  Despite selecting at the back end of the draft and the apparent loss of first round pick Reggie Crawford, 2022 is shaping up to be another strong draft for the Giants with Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt on tract to be at least mid-rotation MLB SP's.  Jack Choate has a good chance to be at least a lefty reliever and John Bertrand could have a Ty Blach/6'th starter type MLB career.  Wade Meckler looks like a potential 4'th OF.  Of course hitting on 1 or 2 first round picks can transform an organization and failing that hurts but if you look at the full draft, at least 3 of FZ's first 4 drafts were quite strong by drafting standards.  Scouting and drafting is a tough business!

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2022 First Round

 Some of you may be wondering why I keep grinding out these draft reviews, especially the first round for all MLB teams.  Two reasons:  1.  I learn a lot about the players.  Opening their Fangraphs page is like opening a Christmas present!  2.  I have the time.  So, let's break down the 2022 draft next.  

1.  Orioles:  Jackson Holliday 2B, HS.

2024(AAA):  .271/.431/.477, 10 HR, 8 SB, 21.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, 346 PA.

2024(MLB):  .189/.255/.311, 5 HR, 4 SB, 7.2 BB%, 33.2 K%, 208 PA, 0.0 fWAR.

Son of Matt Holliday but we won't hold that against him.  Long considered an elite prospect.  Sailed through the Orioles system with incredible BB% and K/BB's although light on power.  Struggled in MLB callup but he's still very young.

2.  D'Backs:  Druw Jones OF, HS.

2024(A):  .275/.409/.405, 6 HR, 21 SB, 18.0 BB%, 28.0 K%, 471 PA.

Son of former MLB CF Andruw Jones.  Like father, like son.  He's an excellent defensive CF but the bat is a project.

3.  Rangers:  Kumar Rocker RHP, Independent Pro.

2024(ACL):  0-1, 6.43, 7 IP, 10.29 K/9, 1.29 BB/9.

2024(AA):  0-0, 0.46, 19.2 IP, 13.27 K/9, 1.37 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 1.80, 10.0 IP, 16.20 K/9, 0.90 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-2, 3.86, 11.2 IP, 10.80 K/9, 4.63 BB/9.

Big bodied pitcher(Dad was a football lineman) considered an elite prospect out of HS.  Chose to take scholarship to Vanderbilt.  Drafted #10 overall by the Mets in 2021 but the Mets withdrew their bonus offer after reviewing his medical report.  He subsequently underwent shoulder surgery.  Pitched in Indy ball prior to the 2022 draft and moved up to #3 overall pick.  Should be ready to move into the Rangers rotation in 2025.

4.  Pirates:  Termarr Johnson 2B, HS.

2024(A+):  .242/.427/.414, 13 HR, 20 SB, 16.0 BB%, 21.6 K%, 487 PA.

2024(AA):  .229/.316/.396, 2 HR, 2 SB, 12.3 BB%, 19.3 K%, 57 PA.

Early pro career slowed by injuries.  Developing at a steady pace.  Elite K/BB's carried over into the Arizona Fall League.

5.  Nationals:  Elijah Green OF, HS

2024(A):  .208/.293/.355, 13 HR, 39 SB, 9.8 BB%, 44.0 K%, 468 PA.

Defensive CF with power and speed.  Extreme contact concerns.

6.  Marlins:  Jacob Berry 1B, College.

2024(AA):  .238/.306/.360, 9 HR, 12 SB, 7.3 BB%, 20.5 K%, 425 PA.

2024(AAA):  .242/.311/.374, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9.7 BB%, 17.5 K%, 103 PA.

Not the offensive numbers you want to see from a 1B only prospect drafted out of college in his 3'rd professional season.

7.  Cubs:  Cade Horton RHP, College.

2024(AA):  1-0, 1.10, 16.1 IP, 9.92 K/9, 1.10 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  1-1, 7.50, 18 IP, 11.00 K/9, 5.50 BB/9.

Put up great numbers at 3 levels in 2023 but shut down in May 2024 with shoulder issues.  He was apparently cleared to start a throwing program a few days ago.

8.  Twins:  Brooks Lee SS, College.

2024(AAA):  .308/.368/.606, 8 HR, 8.8 BB%, 14.0 K%, 114 PA.

2024(MLB:  .221/.265/.320, 3 HR, 3 SB, 5.9 BB%, 14.6 K%,  185 PA.

Minor league numbers look good. Probably just needs more PA's at MLB level to get over the hump.

9.  Royals:  Gavin Cross OF, College.

2024(AA):  .261/.342/.428, 15 HR, 30 SB, 10.3 BB%, 24.1 K%, 436 PA.

Normal organizational progress with strong peripherals.  Should start 2025 in AAA.

10.  Rockies:  Gabriel Hughes RHP, College.

Underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023 and missed all of 2024.  Should be ready to resume competition in the spring.

11.  Mets:  Kevin Parada C, College.

2024(AA):  .214/.304/.359/.13 HR, 9.9 BB%, 33.7 K%.  

K rates are way too high and reportedly not a great defensive catcher.  I general catchers are the riskiest draft demographic but if you are fortunate enough get a Buster Posey the payoff is tremendous.

12.  Tigers:  Jace Jung 3B, College.

2024(AAA):  .257/.377/.454, 14 HR, 16.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, 415 PA.

2024(MLB):  .241/.362/.304, 16.0 BB%, 30.9 K%, 94 PA.

Looks like kind of a 3 true outcomes guy but maybe more successful than most?

13.  Angels:  Zach Neto SS, College.

2024(MLB):  .249/.318/.443, 23 HR, 30 SB, 6.5 BB%, 23.3 K%, 602 PA, 3.5 fWAR.

Angels have been drafting college prospects and rushing them to the majors.  Nice numbers and a solid improvement on Neto's 2023 rookie season.  Unfortunately underwent shoulder surgery and will likely start 2025 late.

14.  Mets:  Jett Williams SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .172/.287/.241, 9.9 BB%, 24.8 K%, 101 PA.

2024(AAA):  .364/.533/.545, 26.7 BB%, 23.3 K%, 30 PA.

Missed most of 2024 with a wrist injury but finished strong at AAA in a small sample.

15.  Padres:  Dylan Lesko RHP, HS.

2024(A+, 2 Teams):  2-12, 6.96, 84 IP, 10.71 K/9, 7.46 BB/9.

Consensus #1 HS pitcher in the draft but Senior HS season ended early by TJ surgery.  Pro career delayed until 2023.  Severe command/control issues.  Traded from Padres to Rays with 2 other prospects at 2024 trade deadline for Jason Adams RHP.

16.  Guardians:  Chase DeLauter OF, College.

2024(AA):  .252/.328/.441, 5 HR, 10.9 BB%, 14.8 K%, 128 PA.

2024(AAA):  .304/.407/.739, 2 HR, 14.8 BB%, 7.4 K%, 27 PA.

2024(AFL):  .340/.475/.511, 12 BB, 6 K's, 59 PA.

Elite strike zone management and above average contact skills.  Limited power so far.

17.  Phillies:  Justin Crawford OF, HS.

2024(A+):  .301/.349/.438, 6 HR, 27 SB, 6.6 BB%, 20.2 K%, 317 PA.

2024(AA):  .333/.380/.455, 3 HR, 15 SB, 6.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 180 PA.

Classic contact/speed CF prospect. Power starting to develop as his body matures.

18.  Reds: Cam Collier 3B, JC.

2024(A+):  .248/.355/.443, 20 HR, 13.0 BB%, 25.0 K%, 507 PA.

Classic 3-true outcomes corner IF.  K% rising with each advancing level something to watch going forward.

19.  A's:  Daniel Susac C, College.

2024(AA):  .257/.300/.434, 12 HR, 7 SB, 4.3 BB%, 25.9 K%, 370 PA.

Walk rates this low rarely play at higher levels.

20.  Braves:  Owen Murphy RHP, HS.

2024(A+):  4-2, 1.54, 41 IP, 13.17 K/9, 2.63 BB/9.

2024 season ended early for TJ surgery.

21.  Mariners:  Cole Young SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .271/.369/.390, 9 HR, 23 SB, 12.1 BB%, 15.8 K%, 552 PA.

Fangraphs calls him a "OBP prodigy."  May move to 2B in the majors.

22.  Cardinals:  Cooper Hjerpe LHP, College.

2024(A+):  0-3, 3.35, 37.2 IP, 13.38 K/9, 4.78 BB/9.

2024(AA):  2-1, 3.07, 12.27 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.

Great numbers but has pitched sparingly over two seasons due to recurrent elbow injuries.  Had surgery to remove loose bodies in 2023 and was shut down after 7/2/2024 with an elbow injury.

23.  Blue Jays:  Brandon Barriera LHP, HS.

Shut down after one appearance in 2024 at A level and undewent "hybrid surgery" on his elbow.

24.  Red Sox:  Mikey Romero SS, HS.

2024(A+):  .271/.319/.498, 10 HR, 5.8 BB%, 21.0 K%, 276 PA.

2024(AA):  .243/.257/.543, 6 HR, 2.7 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.

Impressive power for a young SS prospect but watch the ratios.

25.  Yankees:  Spencer Jones OF, College.

2024(AA):  .259/.336/.452, 17 HR, 25 SB, 9.9 BB%, 36.8 K%, 544 PA.  

Looks like the Yankees may have found late first round value again.  Former 2-way player who now projects as a CF.  6' 6" height may cause issues with strike zone control but Yanks have experience developing tall hitter, don't they?

26.  White Sox:  Noah Schultz LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  0-1, 3.95, 27.1 IP, 13.83 K/9, 2.30 BB/9.

2024(AA):  0-3, 1.48, 61 IP, 10.77, 2.51 BB/9.

May project as a reliever due to reliance on dominant slider.

27.  Brewers:  Eric Brown SS, College.

2024(AA):  .185/.270/.262, 4 HR, 20 SB, 9.3 BB%, 18.8 K%, 441 PA.  

Terrible performance for a college draftee in 3'rd pro season.  Solid ratios and a BABIP of .221 may offer hope of a positive regression.

28.  Astros: Drew Gilbert OF, College.

2024(Mets):  .215/.313/.393, 10 HR, 3 SB, 10.1 BB%, 20.6 K%, 247 PA.

Traded to the Mets 8/1/2023 for Justin Verlander. Disappointing numbers at AAA after a strong AA campaign in 2023.

29.  Rays: Xavier Isaac 1B, HS.

2024(A+):  .287/.381/.535, 15 HR, 14 HR, 12.3 BB%, 30.1 K%, 302 PA.

2024(AA):  .211/.346/.349, 3 HR, SB, 15.8 BB%, 40.6 K%, 133 PA.

Extreme 3-true outcomes guy as you might expect from the Rays organization.

30.  Giants:  Reggie Crawford LHP/1B, College.

2024(AA):  1-1, 4.66, 9.2 IP, 17.69 K/9, 4.66 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 1.04, 8.2 IP, 11.42 K/9, 7.27 BB/9.

Drafted as a 2-way player out of college after he underwent TJ surgery.  Abandoned hitting for for 2024 and Giants tried to fast track him as a reliever.  Unfortunately he underwent reconstructive shoulder surgery in September and will probably miss most or all of 2025.

Summary:

This is a late-maturing draft due to strong HS presence so way too early to judge.  The injury news on Reggie Crawford does not bode well for his future but the Giants swung for the fences on a high-risk/high-ceiling guy which is a reasonable approach at the end of the first round.

Hot Stove League Update: Reds/Royals Trade

The Hot Stove heated up yesterday as the Reds and Royals made a significant trade on top of all the last minute contract negotiations with the arbitration-eligible players.  The Reds acquired Brady Singer RHP for Jonathan India IF and Joey Wiemer OF.  Pretty straightforward:  Pitching for hitting and vice versa.  Let's take a look at the players traded:

Brady Singer RHP:  2024:  9-13, 3.71, 179.2 IP, 8.52 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 1.62 GB/FB, 2.5 fWAR.

 Former #18 overall draft pick in 2018.  Singer had a bit of a bounceback year after putting up a 5.52 ERA in 2023.  Peripherals look similar so the difference is probably mostly BABIP noise.  He's increased his IP every season since his 2020 rookie season.  Caution:  He'll be moving from a pitcher-friendly park to one of the most unfriendly parks in MLB.  The strong GB tendency should help mitigate that.

Jonathan India IF:  

2024:  .248/.357/.392, 28 2B, 15 HR, 13 SB, 12.6 BB%, 19.6 K%, 637 PA, 2.8 fWAR.

Royals wanted a true leadoff hitter and got one.  Unclear where India will play as the Royals already have a 2B and 3B who are better defenders. Fangraphs has him penciled in as the DH on their Depth Chart.  Power may take a hit moving to a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark but he's more of a doubles/gap hitter than HR power.  

Joey Wiemer OF:  

2024(AAA, Brewers):  .242/.387/.358, 3 HR, 6 SB, 18.3 BB%, 26.0 K%, 235 PA.

2024(AAA, Reds):  .190/.280/.229, 4 SB, 10.2 BB%, 31.4 K%, 118 PA.

2024(MLB, 2 Teams):  .154/.214/.154, SB, 7.1 BB%, 32.1 K%, 28 PA, -0.3 fWAR.

Has some raw power but strikes out way too much to access it.  As much as the analytics guys love the three true outcomes guys, to my eye contact skill translates better to the major leagues.

Summary:  

On paper it's an even trade.  I'd probably rather be the team controlling Singer's contract for the next 3 seasons and it's not clear how the Royals are going to replace him in their rotation as they don't have any high-ceiling SP's coming up in their farm system.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Retain Five Arbitration Eligible Players, DFA Two

Members of the Giants fanbase who were hoping for a wholesale non-tender of arbitration eligible players to clear payroll for a run at Juan Soto or other super-high priced free agents were disappointed yesterday as they agreed to term with Mike Yastrzemski OF and Austin Warren RHP, tendered contracts to Lamonte Wade Jr 1B, Tyler Rogers RHP and Camilo Doval RHP.  They no-tendered Kai-Wei Teng RHP(announced two days ago) and Ethan Small LHP.  Although there were many non-tenders of recognizable names around the league, all of the retained Giants players are projected to generate positive value compared to market prices for equal performance so retaining them is a smart move.  They can still be traded if the Giants decide they need the payroll space to sign a star free agent or two, but Alex Pavlovic commented that the Giants starting OF is likely set with YtY in RF, Jung Hoo Lee in CF and Heliot Ramos in LF.  If that' turns out to be the case, it will also likely not resonate well with certain corners of the fanbase.  Here is the list of transactions:

Mike Yastrzemski- $9.25 M($250 K under MLBTR projected salary).

Lamonte Wade Jr- Contract tendered.  MLBTR projected salary- 

Tyler Rogers RHP- Contract tendered.  MLBTR projected salary- 

Camilo Doval RHP- Contract Tendered.  MLBTR projected salary-

Austin Warren RHP- "major league deal".  Likely league minimum($740 K).

Kai-Wei Teng RHP- Non-tender(can still be resigned as a minor league FA).

Ethan Small LHP- non-tendered(can still be resigned as a minor league FA).

The flurry of transactions leaves the Giants with 39 players on the 40-man roster which would seem to indicate they may be planning to sign a free agent in the near future or they have plans to be active in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2021 Giants Draft

1.  Will Bednar RHP, College.  Underslot $390 K.

Development derailed by extended back issues.  2025 is probably Bednar's last chance to find traction on his pro career.  When your first round draft pick struggles, it puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the selections.

2.  Matt Mikulski LHP, College.  Underslot $270 K.

2024(A+):  1-4, 5.58, 59.2 IP, 8.30 K/9, 6.18 BB/9.

I saw him pitch in San Bernardino in 2022 and was not impressed by his stuff.  Two main pitches appeared to be a cutter that struggled to hit 90 MPH and a nice tailing changeup.  Command was very inconsistent.  Pitched exclusively out of the bullpen last year but with similar numbers.  Nothing in his stat lines changes my initial impression.  Very tough to see a MLB future at this point.

3.  Mason Black RHP, College.  Slot.

2024(AAA):  5-6, 4.59, 84.1 IP, 9.28 K/9, 4.16 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  1-5, 6.44, 36.1 IP, 7.68 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, -0.3 fWAR.  

Had several strong starts at the MLB level but got lit up in others.  Can be a back-end SP if he finds consistency.

4.  Eric Silva RHP, HS.  Overslot $977 K.

2024(AA, Giants):  4-2, 4.35, 41.1 IP, 11.10 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 2 Saves.

2024(AA, Tigers):  0-2, 5.60, 17.2 IP, 9.17 K/9, 3.06 BB/9.

Paying overslot for a HS pitcher did not work out as well for the Giants here as with Kyle Harrison.  Numbers improved a bit in a pitcher-friendly environment and working strictly out of the bullpen.  Traded to the Tigers for Mark Canha.  That might not end up being a great trade for the Giants as Silva is still just 21 y.o.  

5.  Rohan Handa LHP, College.  Underslot $24, 100.

Pop up prospect after his FB velocity jumped from the 80's to 97 MPH after going through a private performance training program.  Pitched will in a summer league.  Never pitched in affiliated minor league ball. Underwent shoulder surgery in September 2022 and announced an extended break from baseball in January 2024.

6.  Seth Lonsway LHP, College.  Overslot $18, 200.

2024(A+):  2-3, 3.86, 63 IP, 8.14 K/9, 2.86 BB/9.  

2024(AA):  2-1, 1.38, 32.2 IP, 7.16 K/9, 1.93 BB/9. 

Has always had good stuff but inconsistent command/control.  Walk rates improved dramatically in 2024.  Has a legitimate shot at a MLB lefty reliever if he can maintain it.

7.  Nick Sinacola RHP, College.  Underslot $22, 700.

2024(A+):  4-1, 2.68, 40.1 IP, 8.48 K/9, 1.56 BB/9.

2024(AA):  5-2, 4.08, 68.1 IP, 7.77 K/9, 2.37 BB/9.

Probably not a super-high ceiling but a strong 2024 campaign at 2 levels keeps him on track to a possible MLB career.

8.  Ian Villers RHP, College.  Overslot  $41, 200.

2024(ACL):  1-1, 3.46, 13 IP, 11.08 K/9, 2.77 BB/9.

2024(A):  2-2, 5.97, 34.2 IP, 5.97 K/9, 4.41 BB/9, 4 Saves.

Big righty.  Missed all of 2023 and the first month of 2024.  Needs to find traction in 2025.

9.  Mat Olsen RHP, JC.  Underslot $7, 800.

2024(AA):  1-2, 4.02, 47 IP, 7.47 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 5 Saves.

Reliever track.  Peripherals took a step back in 2024.

10.  Vaun Brown OF, College.  Underslot $138, 200.

2024(ACL):  .286/.429/.429, HR, 10.7 BB%, 14.3 K%, 28 PA.

2024(A+):  .167/.231/.278, 3 SB, 2.6 BB%, 46.2 K%, 39 PA.

2024(AA):  .144/.188/.265, 3 HR, 8 SB, 4.8 BB%, 49 K%, 145 PA.

Burst on the prospect scene with a sensational 2022 season.  Struggled at higher levels and with injuries.  Future cloudy at this point.

11.  Donovan McIntyre OF, HS.  Overslot $197, 500.

2024(ACL):  .200/.333/.356, HR, SB, 14.5 BB%, 41.8 K%, 55 PA.

Apparently still in organization but after 4 seasons in the ACL he has yet to hit above .203.

12.  Landen Roupp RHP, College.  Underslot $25 K

2024(AAA):  0-1, 3.80, 21.1 IP, 12.66 K/9, 5.91 BB/9, 1.77 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  1-2, 3.58, 50.1 IP, 8.40 K/9, 4.65 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.

Roupp is looking like the strongest Giants pick in this draft.  Appears to have a real shot at a role on the MLB squad next season.

13.  Jared Dupere OF, College.  Overslot $25 K

Had some HR power in his bat but struggled with high K rates.  Released 7/23/2024 after a series of injuries.

14.  Tyler Myrick RHP, College.  Overslot $25 K.

2024(AA):  1-3, 5/14, 28 IP, 9.32 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, 6 Saves.

2024(AAA):  3-2, 3.18, 34 IP, 9.79 K/9, 5.03 BB/9, 7 Saves.

Steady rise through system on Closer track.  Has a chance to be a relief option at the MLB level.

15. Brooks Baldwin 2B, College.  Not Signed.

Drafted in the 12'th round by the White Sox in 2022.  Has done well in the White Sox system and made his MLB debut on 7/19/2024.  Maybe the Giants should have tried harder to sign him?

16. Julian Bosnic LHP, College.  Not Signed.

Drafted by the Pirates in Round 14 in 2022.  Recorded a 3.03 ERA with the Pirates A+ affiliate in 2024.

17.  Brett Standlee RHP, College.  Underslot $25 K.

Did not play in 2024.  Apparently still in the organization.  Spent two seasons at A+ in 2022 and 2023 with fairly pedestrian numbers.

18.  Hunter Dula RHP, College. Overslot $25 K.

2024(A+):  1-2, 3.19, 36.2 IP, 9.08 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 5 Saves.

2024(AA):  0-0, 5.40, 1.2 IP, 10.80 K/9, 5/40 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-0, 11.57, 4.2 IP, 2.86 K/9, 3.86 BB/9.

Really hasn't pitched above A+ except for cameo appearances.  This tends to be a sign he's an "organizational player" who they plug in wherever needed.

19.  Irvin Murr III 3B, HS.  Overslot $25 K.

Played two seasons at the ACL level with sub-.200 BA's.  Released in Sept 2023 after missing the entire 2023 season with injuries.

20.  Vance Honeycutt OF, HS.  Not Signed.

Played college ball for North Carolina.  #22 overall pick by the Orioles in 2024 draft.

Summary:

The Giants went pitcher heavy in this draft and may end up with 2 or 3 MLB pitchers out of it but overall a weak draft for them starting with the likely failure of the first round pick.

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Two Pitchers To Minor League Deals

 Let's meet a couple more newcomers to the Giants farm system and I'm actually pretty excited by these two.

Juan Mercedes RHP:  DOB:  4/3/2000.  6' 2", 190 lbs.  

2024(AA, Mariners):  10-5, 2.87, 144.1 IP, 7.86 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 0.66 GB/FB.

Worked exclusively as a SP in the Mariners system.  Outstanding walk rate but subpar K rate which is concerning for a fly ball pitcher.  Fangraphs:  "Mercedes is a slider-heavy starter at Double-A who has good peripherals, but I don't trust that he actually has good command and he's at best a 40 athlete."  Giants can assign him to AAA Sacramento where he will provide depth for both the MLB rotation and bullpen.

Joel Peguero RHP:  DOB:  5/5/1997.  5' 11", 160 lbs.  

2024(AA, Tigers):  3-0, 3.14, 51.2 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.

Minor league reliever.  Spent 7 seasons in the Rays organization before hitting the minor league free agent circuit.  Fangraphs rates his FB as a 70, slider a 55.  To my eye the K, BB and GB/FB numbers are all positives.

MLB Draft Reviews: 2021 First Round

 1.  Pirates:  Henry Davis C, College.  

2024(AAA):  .307/.401/.555, 13 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 22.4 K%, 254 PA.

2024(MLB):  .144/.242/.212, 1 HR, 10.7 BB%, 36.9 K%, 122 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Polarizing choice as #1 overall as a hit-first college catcher who was widely considered a signability pick.  Better defender at C than OF in small samples.  Has put together excellent offensive lines in AAA but faceplanted in 2 MLB trials with a .191 BA in 377 cumulative PA's.  Can he make the adjustment with more MLB experience or is he a AAAA player?

2.  Rangers:  Jack Leiter RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  6-4, 3.51, 77 IP, 12.86 K/9, 4.09 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-3, 8.83, 35.1 IP, 7.82 K/9, 4.29 BB/9, -0.2 fWAR.

First 3 pro seasons did not go well with ERA's and BB/9's over 5.  2024 AAA was better but midseason call up to the Rangers did not go well.

3.  Tigers:  Jackson Jobe RHP, HS

2024(AA):  4-2, 1.95, 73.2 IP, 9.90 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 4.04 xFIP.  

Peripheral numbers don't match the ERA.  Also pitched 9 innings at AAA and 4 innings at MLB levels with even worse ratios.  His FB was 97 MPH in his MLB cup of coffee.  Maybe profiles more as a reliever than SP?

4.  Red Sox:  Marcelo Mayer SS, HS

2024(AA):  .307/.370/.480, 8 HR, 13 SB, 9.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 335 PA.

The numbers look good.  Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs mentions issues with soft stuff low and away.  His last two seasons ended early with relatively minor injuries.  Still projects as at least a solid starting MBL SS.

5.  Orioles:  Colton Cowser OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .242/.321/.447, 24 HR, 9 SB, 9.3 BB%, 30.7 K%, 561 PA, 4.0 fWAR.  

K rate is a bit high but otherwise about all you could expect from a rookie season for a first round draft pick.

6.  D'Backs:  Jordan Lawlar SS, HS.

Battled a hamstring injury for much of 2024 and got only 104 PA at 3 levels.  Numbers are good when healthy and should graduate to MLB in 2025 if healthy.

7.  Royals:  Frank Mozzicato LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  5-10, 3.45, 101.2 IP, 8.06 K/9, 5.49 BB/9.  

Not the numbers you want to see from a first round draft pick in their third pro season even if they were drafted out of HS.

8.  Rockies:  Benny Montgomery OF, HS.

2024(AA);  .283/.313/.500, 2 HR, 3 SB, 4.2 BB%, 41.7 K%, 48 PA.

Underwent shoulder surgery in May and did not return in 2024.  Had been progressing at a reasonable pace before that setback.

9.  Angels:  Sam Bachman RHP, College.

Made the majors in 2023 and pitched to a 3.18 ERA but with poor peripherals.  Missed the second half of 2023 with shoulder inflammation and underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason.  Pitched at 3 levels in second half of 2024.  2025 should be a telling year.

10.  Mets:  Kumar Rocker RHP, College.

Did not sign.  Pitched indy ball for a year and was drafted by the Rangers in 2022.  Pitched at 4 levels in 2024 with excellent stat lines including 11.2 IP with the MLB Rangers.

11.  Nationals:  Brady House SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .234/.310/.423, 13 HR, 5 SB, 7.8 BB%, 24.5 K%, 306 PA.

2024(AAA):  .250/.280/.375, 6 HR, SB, 3.0 BB%, 28.8 K%, 236 PA.  

Projected to play 3B for the Nationals in 2025.  Offensive profile similar to Casey Schmitt.

12.  Mariners:  Harry Ford C, HS.

2024(AA):  .249/.377/.367, 7 HR, 35 SB, 14.5 BB%, 22.0 K%, 523 PA.

Power down a bit after hitting 15 HR in 2023 in A+ ball.  Excellent plate discipline.  Fangraphs notes improve catcher D.

13.  Phillies:  Andrew Painter RHP, HS.

Had a great Arizona Fall League with a 2.08 ERA and 12 K's, 2 BB's in 13 IP after missing 2 full seasons with a UCL tear.  Fangraphs comped him to Justin Verlander!

14.  Giants:  Will Bednar RHP, College.

2024(A):  1-0, 3.60, 10 IP, 11.70 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

2024(A+):  0-2, 3.18, 11.1 IP, 15.88 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-2, 7.71, 32.2 IP, 11.85 K/9, 9.92 BB/9.

Bednar has been quite the enigma.  I really liked him coming out of the draft.  I figured a top pitcher from the top college conference would be a fast mover to the majors and be a rotation fixture for years.  I saw him pitch in San Bernardino early in 2022.  He took a no-hitter into the 5'th inning but something seemed off.  His velocity topped out at 92 MPH with inconsistent command.  He was shut down early in 2022 and missed much of 2023 with back issues.  His velocity was reportedly up to the mid-90's in 2024 but he continued to battle command/control issues.  He was not added to the 40 man roster this offseason and is Rule 5 Draft eligible.  He's a guy who could move fast if he ever gets his command back and stays healthy but how likely is that? 

15.  Brewers:  Sal Frelick OF, College.

2024(MLB):  .259/320/.335, 2 HR, 18 SB, 7.4 BB%, 14.9 K%, 524 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Contact/speed guys seem to be coming back into vogue.  Buster Posey has indicated he wants these types of players on the Giants due to ballpark characteristics.  Most of Frelick's WAR value is in defense and baserunning.

16.  Marlins:  Khalil Watson SS, HS

2024(AA, Guardians):  .220/.305/.407, 16 HR, 15 SB, 407 PA.

Traded to Guardians with Jean Segura for Josh Bell at the 2023 trade deadline.  Off the chart tools but needs to improve contact.

17.  Reds:  Matt McLain SS, College.

2023(MLB):  .290/.357/.507, 16 HR, 14 SB, 7.7 BB%, 28.5 K%, 403 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Terrific rookie season.  Did not play in 2024 due to shoulder surgery in March. 

18.  Cardinals:  Michael McGreevy RHP, College.

2024(AAA):  9-8, 4.02, 150 IP, 8.28 K/9, 2.64 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-0, 1.96, 23 IP, 7.04 K/9, 0.78 BB/9, 0.6 fWAR.

Solid minor league record and a promising start to his MLB career.  Extreme groundball ratio with low walk rates is a recipe for sustained success.  Cardinals once again finding value in the second half of the first round.

19.  Blue Jays:  Gunnar Hoglund RHP, College. 

2024(AA, A's):  9-4, 2.84, 104.2 IP, 8.34 K/9, 2.32 BB/9.

2-24(AAA, A's):  0-3, 5.88, 26 IP, 7.62 K/9, 3.46 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in 2022 in a package for Matt Chapman.  Some inconsistent ERA's and pedestrian K/BB's.  Added to A's 40-man roster yesterday.

20. Yankees: Trey Sweeney SS, College.

2024(AAA, Dodgers):  .254/.334/.427, 13 HR, 16 SB, 10.0 BB%, 26.8 K%, 440 PA.

2024(AAA, Tigers):  .381/.447/.667, 2 HR, 4 SB, 10.6 BB%, 25.5 K%, 47 PA.

2024(MLB, Tigers):  .218/.269/.373, 4 HR, 2 SB, 5.9 BB%, 26.9 K%, 119 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Traded from the Yankees to the Dodgers for a couple of pitchers in the fall of 2023.  Traded to the Tigers for Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline 2024.  Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing."

21.  Cubs:  Jordan Wicks LHP, College.

2024(AAA):  0-4, 5.57, 21 IP, 10.29 K/9, 3.43 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 5.48, 46 IP, 8.22 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, -0.1 fWAR.

Reached MLB level in 2023 with a 4.41 ERA in 34.2 IP(0.3 fWAR).  Regressed in 2024.  Maybe the league got a book on his stuff?

22.  White Sox:  Colson Montgomery SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .214/.329/.381, 18 HR, 8 SB, 12.0 BB%, 28.6 K%, 573 PA.  

Fangraphs:  "Montgomery is probably too big for a shortstop but his on-base skills and power profile well at third base."  Will need to improve contact.

23.  Guardians:  Gavin Williams RHP, College.

2024:  3-10, 4.86, 76 IP, 9.36 K/9, 3.79 BB/9, 1.3 fWAR.

Reached the majors in 2023(1.1 fWAR) with inconsistent results so far.

24.  Braves:  Ryan Cusick RHP, College.

2024(AA):  3-3, 4.47, 56.1 IP, 10.07 K/9, 5.27 BB/9.

Traded to the A's in the package for Matt Olson.  Added to 40-man roster yesterday.  High walk rates have held him back and continue to be an issue.

25.  A's:  Max Muncy SS, HS.

2024(AAA):  .277/.374/.491, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 203 PA.

Not to be confused with THAT Max Muncy!  Really, this Max Muncy should seriously think about changing his name or going by a nickname or something.  I get PTSD just reading the name.  We'll give it a scouting grade of 20.  Will likely make his MLB debut with the A's in 2025.

26.  Twins:  Chase Petty RHP, HS.

2024(AA):  10-5, 4.39, 127 IP, 8.72 K/9, 3.97 BB/9.

Traded to the Reds for Sonny Gray RHP.  Unexciting peripheral stats.

27.  Padres:  Jackson Merrill OF, HS.

2024(MLB):  .292/.326/.500, 24 HR, 16 SB, 4.9 BB%, 17.0 K%, 593 PA, 5.3 fWAR.

Best player in the draft so far.  Contact, power, speed.  He's the whole package.  Can he sustain it with that walk rate?  When a team gets a player like this at #27 is it drafting luck or skill? I mean the Angels got Mike Trout at #25 and he was their only good pick for a decade.

28.  Rays:  Carson Williams SS, HS.

2024(AA):  .256/.352/.469, 20 HR, 33 SB, 11.5 BB%, 28.5 K%, 505 PA.  Fangraphs:  "Williams has hit tool risk, but his power and shortstop defense make him a potential star.

29.  Dodgers:  Maddux Bruns LHP, HS.

2024(A+):  0-1, 2.22, 28.1 IP, 11.75 K/9, 6.35 BB/9.

Severe command/control issues limit potential.  May end up as lefty reliever.

Summary:

Strange draft in that the back half of the first round looks a lot stronger than the front half so far.  Maybe too early to completely give up on Bednar but the probability is the Giants get no value from this first round pick and that hurts.

Hot Stove League Update: Buster Adds Advisors; Rule 5 Draft Roster Moves

Giants POBO, Buster Posey, made a couple of hires which caused a mini-meltdown in the Giants blogosphere.  Buster hired former Giants GM Bobby Evans and Buster's own former agent, Jeff Berry, as advisors.  The meltdowns are related to a perception that Bobby Evans tenure as GM was a disaster while Jeff Berry was recently quoted in The Athletic complaining about Moneyball groupthink and how unfair it was for some of his clients.  

I've never been as down on Bobby Evans as most Giants bloggers.  He was trying to keep an aging, declining core competitive longer than was warranted but I tend to believe that's what ownership wanted him to do.  It was the expectation of most of the fanbase.  He acquired some veteran players who didn't pan out as hoped which left the team in a payroll bind.  He also expanded the analytics department and beefed up international scouting which paid dividends with the signings of Luis Matos and Marco Luciano.  He was also GM when Heliot Ramos was drafted after several drafts that didn't work out, mostly due to the Giants relatively low drafting positions.  I am sure his top-to-bottom knowledge of organizational structure will be valuable to Buster as he acclimates to the role of POBO.  I don't know enough about Berry to comment much on what he may bring to Buster's round table, but it doesn't hurt to have some insight into how agents think about the free agent process.

*************************************************************************************

Today was the deadline for setting 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft which takes place on the last day of the Winter Meetings in December.  No big surprises as the Giants added Carson Seymour RHP and Carson Ragsdale RHP and DFA's Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  Players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft who were not protected include Aeverson Arteaga SS and Onil Perez C as well as former first round draft picks Hunter Bishop OF and Will Bednar RHP.  I do not see a high probability that any of them will be selected.

MLB Draft Reviews: Giants 2020 Draft

The 2020 draft was just 5 rounds due to the pandemic.  I'm not sure why the pandemic shortened the draft but probably mostly to save money on signing bonuses.  Anyway, we already saw how first round pick Patrick Bailey was arguably the best pick in the draft.   How did the Giants do in the other 5 rounds?  BTW, they had two extra picks at the end of round 2 due to losing Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith to free agency.

1.  Patrick Bailey C, College.

As we have discussed extensively, Bailey was an excellent first round pick in an extremely weak draft, possibly the best player in the entire draft.

2. Casey Schmitt 3B, College.

We all know Casey's story too.  He's at a crossroads in his career.  He has shown flashes of star potential or at least a solid MLB regular.  The main thing holding him back is a severe lack of plate discipline.  He was noticeably better after a late season return to the active roster.  Will he get a chance to show that wasn't a fluke in 2025?

2C.  Nick Swiney LHP, College.

2024(AA):  4-2, 5.25, 72 IP, 9.88 K/9, 4.13 BB/9.  

Those are not the kind of numbers to make you think Swiney is going to reach the big leagues anytime soon.

2C.  Jimmy Glowenke 2B, College.

2024(AA):  .199/.300/.309, 7 HR, 5 SB, 8.2 BB%, 22.4 K%, 392 PA. 

Also not the kind of numbers to make you think he will reach the majors anytime soon.

3.  Kyle Harrison LHP, HS.

2024:  7-7, 4.56, 124.1 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9, 0.8 fWAR.

Pretty solid rooking campaign for Harrison.  He seemed to tire in the second half or maybe the league got a book on him?  Finished the season on the IL with "mild" shoulder inflammation. Many analysts were calling for him to be shut down for the season anyway.  Strong candidate for a breakout in 2025 just due to normal development and added experience.

4.  R. J. Dabovich RHP, College.

Hard throwing college Closer.  Was on fast track to majors as a reliever but underwent hip surgery in 2023 and spend most of 2024 on the IL due to an undisclosed condition.  

5.  Ryan Murphy RHP, College.

2024(AA):  1-4, 3.35, 43 IP, 9.63 K/9, 2.93 BB/9.  

Pitched well before going on IL after June 1.  I was not able to find the nature or his injury.  Google search for Ryan Murphy injury showed his name but description of injury clearly referring to Tom Murphy C. Ryan Murphy spent time on the IL in 2022 with elbow inflammation.

Summary:

This would be a successful draft with Patrick Bailey alone.  Adding Kyle Harrison makes it excellent. If Casey Schmitt sustains his newfound plate discipline proves this could be one of the great Giants drafts of all time.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2020 First Round

 1.  Tigers:  Spencer Torkelson 1B, College.  

2024(AAA):  .239/.356/.442, 11 HR, 15.3 BB%, 30.9 K%, 275 PA.

2024(MLB:  .219/.295/.374, 10 HR, 8.7 BB%, 27.6 K%, 381 PA, 0.1 fWAR(1.5 in 2023).

Bat regressed badly after hitting 31 HR's at the MLB level in 2023.  Negative fielding metrics.

2.  Orioles:  Heston Kjerstad OF, College:  

2024(AAA):  .300/.397/.601, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 26.0 K%, 258 PA.

2024(MLB):  .253/.351/.394, 4 HR, 8.8 BB%, 28.9 K%, 114 PA, 0.3 fWAR

K rate is higher than ideal but appears poised to become a MLB regular with some power.

3.  Marlins:  Max Meyer RHP, College

2024(AAA):  1-3, 4.34, 58 IP, 10.71 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  3-5, 5.68, 57 IP, 7.26 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, -0.3 fWAR.

Undersized college P with a big arm.  Appeared to have the most advanced stuff of any pitcher in the draft.  May end up in retrospect as the classic high-floor/low-ceiling college prospect.

4.  Royals:  Asa Lacy LHP, College

Pitched ineffectively in 3 minor league seasons.  Has not pitched since 2022 and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2024.

5.  Blue Jays:  Austin Martin SS, College

2024(AAA, Twins):  .305/.469/.379, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21.5 BB%, 11.5 K%, 130 PA.

2024(MLB, Twins):  .253/.318/.352, 1 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 257 PA,  -0.2 fWAR.

Disappointing pro career so far from Martin who was rated as the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has never played SS in the pros.  Traded to the Twins in July 2021 with Simeon Woods Richardson for Jose Berrios.  Lack of power is his biggest deficiency hitting just 16 HR's in 1500 pro PA's. Negative defensive metrics.

6.  Emerson Hancock RHP, College

2024(AAA):  7-3, 3.43, 94.1 IP, 6.30 K/9, 3.53 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  4-4, 4.75, 60.2 IP, 5.79 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, -0.4 fWAR.

Pedestrian K/BB does not bode well for future success.

7.  Pirates:  Nick Gonzalez 2B, College

2024(AAA):  .356/.429/.600, 5 HR, 9.7 BB%, 16.2 K%, 154 PA.

2024(MLB):  .270/.311/.398, 7 HR, 4.7 BB%, 19.1 K%, 387 PA, 1.3 fWAR.

Can be a solid MLB 2B if he can improve on what was technically his rookie season with experience.

8.  Padres:  Robert Hassell III OF, HS

2024(A+):  .259/.276/.370, 3.4 BB%, 13.8 K%, 29 PA.

2024(AA):  .271/.357/.371, 11.0 BB%, 20.8 K%, 12 SB, 264 PA.

2024(AAA):  .125/.188/.156, 3 SB, 7.2 BB%, 24.6 K%, 69 PA.

Fangraphs capsule comment is his offensive performance "tanked" after trade to the Nationals for Juan Soto.  Fractured hamate after 2023 season.  Still has time to bounce back.

9.  Rockies:  Zac Veen OF, HS

2024(AA):  .268/.359/.457, 5 HR, 10 SB, 11.0 BB%, 26.2 K%, 145 PA.

2024(AAA):  .220/.281/.476, 6 HR, 6 SB, 7.6 BB%, 26.1 K%, 92 PA.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Veen's lefty swing is still vulnerable to inner-half velocity and he remains in a liminal prospect space more than he is a slam dunk big league star.

10.  Angels:  Reid Detmers LHP, College

2024:  4-9, 6.70, 87.1 IP, 11.23 K/9, 3.92 BB/9, 0.7 fWAR.  

Slightly better than league-average SP in 2022 and 2023. Pitched a no-hitter in his 2022 rookie year.  Big regression in 2024 including a demotion to AAA.

11.  White Sox:  Garrett Crochet LHP, College

2024:  6-12, 3.58, 146 IP, 12.88 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.7 fWAR.

Crochet was my highest rated pitcher in the draft.  Breakout performance in 2024.  Only deficiency is he doesn't get deep into games.  Intriguing trade target for a team willing to give up prospect capital to win now.

12.  Reds:  Austin Hendrick OF, HS

2024(AA):  .188/.243/.288, 11 HR, 14 SB, 5.3 BB%, 36.5 K%, 474 PA.

Has never had a K rate less than 35%.

13. Giants:  Patrick Bailey C, College

2024:  .234/.298/.339, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, 4.3 fWAR.

Gold glove catcher by a large margin.  Bat has faded in second half two seasons in a row.  Still has one of the highest values out of this draft.

14.  Rangers:  Justin Foscue 1B, College

2024(AAA):  .276/.420/.477, 9 HR, 17.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, 219 PA.

2024(MLB):  .048/.091/.071, 4.5 BB%, 40.9 K%, 44 PA, -0.8 fWAR.

Decent numbers at AAA but faceplanted in a small sample at the MLB level.  Not really what you are looking for in a guy who DH'd 11 games out of 14 even if he translated his AAA numbers to MLB.

15.  Phillies:  Mick Abel RHP, HS

2024(AAA):  3-12, 6.46, 108.2 IP, 9.69 K/9, 6.46 BB/9

Plus-plus stuff has not translated due to persistently high walk rates.

16.  Cubs:  Ed Howard SS, HS

2024(A+):  .234/.289/.310, 2 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 395 PA.

2024:(AAA):  .139/.205/.167, 4.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 41 PA.

Has tools but has never hit above .244 in the pros.  Stuck at A+ level for 3 seasons.

17.  Red Sox:  Nick Yorke, SS, HS

2024(AA, Red Sox):  .251/.325/.366, 4 HR, 8 SB, 9.1 BB%, 18.3 K%, 197 PA.

2024(AAA, Red Sox):  .310/.408/.490, 6 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(AAA, Pirates):  .355/.431/.507, 2 HR, 7 SB, 10.3 BB%, 18.9 K%, 175 PA.

2024(MLB, Pirates):  .216/.286/.378, 2 HR, 2 SB, 9.5 BB%, 28.6 K%, 42 PA, -0.1 fWAR.

Many analysts thought Yorke was a huge reach when the Red Sox selected him in the draft.  Has put up some good batting lines but the knock on him is below average defense after moving off SS to 2B/OF.  Traded to the Pirates straight up for Quinn Priester RHP.

18.  D'Backs:  Bryce Jarvis RHP, College

2024:  1-2, 3.19, 59 IP, 5.76 K/9, 5.01 BB/9, 5.12 FIP, -0.6 fWAR.  

I have to admit I was really high on Jarvis going into the draft and was disappointed when the Giants passed on him to draft Patrick Bailey.  Hmm.....seems like Michael Holmes and FZ know more about drafting than I do.

19.  Mets:  Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS

2024(AAA, Cubs):  .255/.299/.509, 5 HR, 10 SB, 5.1 BB%, 27.4 K%, 117 PA.

2024(MLB, Cubs):  .237/.286/.384, 10 HR, 27 SB, 5.1 BB%, 23.9 K%, 410 PA, 2.7 fWAR.

Tooled up.  Traded from Mets to Cubs for Javier Baez IF and Trevor Williams RHP.  WAR value is in CF defense.  Can still develop into a 4-5 WAR player if bat progresses.

20.  Brewers:  Garrett Mitchell OF, College

2024:  .255/.342/.469, 8 HR, 11 SB, 11.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, 224 PA, 1.8 fWAR.

Tools galore with positive value in all phases of the game.  K rate limits future value unless he can bring it down.

21.  Cardinals:  Jordan Walker OF, HS

2024(AAA):  .263/.326/.445, 9 HR, 7 SB, 8.2 BB%, 19.4 K%, 377 PA.

2024(MLB):  .201/.253/.366, 5 HR, 5.6 BB%, 28.1 K%, 178 PA.

Looked like the steal of the draft when he burst on the scene in 2023 but fell victim to the "sophomore jinx".  Future now uncertain.

22.  Nationals:  Cade Cavalli RHP, College

Missed entire 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.  Reinjured elbow during rehab assignment and was on a throwing program at the end of 2024 season.

23.  Guardians:  Carson Tucker SS, HS

Released on 7/3/2024.

24.  Rays:  Nick Bitsko RHP, HS

Has only pitched a total of 28.1 innings in pro ball due to a series of injuries.

25.  Braves:  Jared Shuster LHP, College

2024(AAA, White Sox):  0-1, 6.39, 12.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 2.13 BB/9

2024(MLB, White Sox):  2-5, 4.30, 73.1 IP, 6.87 K/9, 4.05 BB/9, 0.2 fWAR.

Traded to White Sox for Aaron Bummer LHP.  LOL Fangraphs:  "In Bummer Move, Braves Land Lefty Reliever for Pile of Ex-Prospects."

26.  A's:  Tyler Soderstrom C, HS

2024(AAA):  .279/.385/.607, 10 HR, 11.2 BB%, 24.5 K%, 143 PA.

2024(MLB):  .233/.315/.429, 9 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.9 K%, 213 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Drafted as a catcher out of HS.  Now starting 1B for the A's.  Bat still has a chance to be good enough for 1B.   Son of former Giants first round draft pick Steve Soderstrom.  

27.  Twins:  Aaron Sabato 1B, College

2024(AA):  .206/.303/.350, 10 HR, 8 SB, 10.9 BB%, 29.7 K%, 350 PA.

K rate is holding bat back.

28.  Yankees:  Austin Wells C, College

2024:  .229/.322/.395, 13 HR, 11.4 BB%, 21.0 K%, 414 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

Once again, Yankees find solid value at the bottom of the draft.  Some analysts thought Wells had the best bat in the draft but had questions about his catching defense.  Ironically most of WAR value in 2024 came on D.  

29.  Dodgers:  Bobby Miller RHP, College

2024(AAA):  0-1, 5.06, 7.76 K/9, 5.74 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  2-4, 8.52, 8.36 K/9, 4.82 BB/9, -0.9 fWAR.

Very hard thrower but has not commanded his pitches at the MLB level and has been punished for it.

30.  Orioles:  Jordan Westburg IF, College

2024:  .264/.312/.481, 18 HR, 6 SB, 4.9 BB%, 21.7 K%, 447 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  

Low walk rate is concerning but looks like he can be a solid regular at the MLB level.

Summary:  2020 draft is shaping up to be extraordinarily weak, possibly related to COVID interruption in development.  Giants taking Patrick Bailey is arguably the best pick in the draft.  Garrett Crochet, Pete Crow Armstrong and Austin Wells deserve mention as good picks.

MLB Amateur Draft Reviews: 2019 Giants Draft

I think most Giants fans think the 2029 draft was a total bust.  I know that has been my general impression.  While the first two picks did not develop as hoped, the draft is actually looking quite strong in later rounds.  

1.  Hunter Bishop OF, College:  Underslot- $640 K

As discussed extensively, finally had a healthy season in 2024 but needs to stay healthy and step up his game in 2025.  Still has outside shot at a MLB career with the Giants.

2.  Logan Wyatt 1B, College:  Underslot- $442, 500

Retired 8/10/2024.  Was the new "god of walks" in college.  Never got traction on his pro career.

3.  Grant McCray CF, HS:  Overslot- $6, 200

5-tool athlete who was raw when drafted.  Slow to find traction in the pros but advanced steadily over the last 3 seasons.  Ended 2024 as the Giants starting CF.  Probably needs a bit more seasoning but has a chance to be a plus player in all phases of the game.

4.  Tyler Fitzgerald SS, College:  Underslot- $$2,500

Ended 2024 as the Giants starting SS.  Buster Posey indicated he wants to add a SS this offseason and move Fitz to 2B or utility role.

5.  Garrett Frechette 1B, HS: Overslot- $425, 900

Released from A+ Eugene 7/23/2024.  Bat never developed.

6.  Dilan Rosario SS, HS: Overslot- $368, 200

Released from AA Richmond 7/24/2024.  Bat never developed.

7.  Armani Smith LF, College:  Overslot- $77, 300

Waived by AA Richmond and claimed by the Twins 12/7/2022.  Released from developmental ball 7/15/2023.  Looked like a promising power bat at A and A+ levels in 2021 but regressed badly after that.

8.  Caleb Kilian RHP, College:  Overslot- $221,200

2024(Cubs):  0-1, 4.22, 10.2 IP.   Traded to Cubs with Alex Canario for Kris Bryant.  Had a promising 2022 minor league season but struggled in several attempts to pitch at MLB level.  Missed most of 2024 with a Teres Major strain.

9.  Simon Whiteman SS, College:  Underslot- $132, 800

Released by AA Richmond 7/25/2023.  Speedy but undersized IF from Ivy League.  Currently enrolled in law school at Univ of Chicago.  

10.  Jeff Houghtby SS, College: Underslot- $123, 200

Played just one pro season in 2019 after the draft.  Retired 5/3/2021.

11.  Trevor McDonald RHP, College: Overslot- $700 K

Added to 40-man roster November 2023.  pitched at 4 minor league levels in 2024 after starting season on IL.  Started the final game of the season for the Giants with 3 shutout innings. Has 2 remaining options.

12.  Chris Wright LHP, College: Overslot- $25 K

Has pitched well in the minors as a lefty reliever/Closer.  Missed all of 2024 with an injury.  Currently on the AAA Sacramento roster.

13.  Harrison Freed OF, College: Slot

Released 3/27/2023.

14.  Nick Morreale RHP, College:  Overslot- $25 K

2024(A+):  3-3, 3.89, 44 IP, 10.23 K/9, 2.45 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-1, 1.70, 37 IP, 7.30 K/9, 3.16 BB/9.

Big RHP who for some reason got buried at A+ level for 4 seasons despite excellent numbers.  Finally got a promo to AA last season with a low ERA but his K/BB took a hit.  A GM out there looking to add talent via the Rule 5 Draft might want to get a scouting report on him.

15.  Carter Aldrete 3B, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Nephew of former Giant Mike Aldrete.  Released 1/10/2024.  Like many other hitting prospects his bat hit the wall at AA.

16.  Brandon Martorano C, College:  Overslot- $25 K

Released 8/7/2024.  Career minor league BA .220.

17.  Connor Cannon 1B, College:  Underslot- $100 K

Released 3/12/2024.  Traded to Yankees 6/1/2021.  Released by Yanks 8/31/2022.  Resigned by the Giants 2/17/2023.  "Light tower power" but already had bad knees when drafted and was only healthy enough to play in 2 minor league seasons.

18.  Cole Waites RHP, College:  Slot

Hard-throwing reliever/Closer type who got a cup of coffee in 2023 which did not go well. He then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2024.  Some Giants-oriented bloggers are advocating for him to be added to the 40-man roster again to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.  

19.  Kanoa Pagan RHP, College:  Slot

Has pitched very sparingly due to multiple apparent injuries.  Still on the A San Jose Giants roster.

20.  Najee Gaskins OF, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/9/2022 despite a pro career BA of .285.

21.  Bryce Fehmel RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K.

Voluntarily retired 5/30/2022 after second UCL tear.

22.  Javeyan Williams OF, College: Underslot- $100 K

Released 8/12/2021 after batting .209 at two levels in his first full pro season.

23.  Taylor Rashi RHP, College: Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reno Aces in the D'Backs organization 12/7/2022.  Pitched fairly well at two levels with the D'Backs in 2024.

24.  Evan Lumbert RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Released 3/30/2022 despite a pro career ERA of 1.56

25.  Richard Rodriguez SS, HS: Not signed

26.  Nick Avila RHP, College:  Underslot- $50 K

Got some notice when he went 14-0 with a 3.00 ERA for AAA Sacramento in 2023.  A couple cups of coffee in early 2024 did not go well and he was released and signed by the Orioles then released by them 8/26/2024.  Getting to the major leagues is hard.  Staying there is harder. Tough business!

27.  Connor Beichler SS, HS:  Not signed

28.  Reese Sharp RHP,  HS:  Not signed

29.  Brooks Crawford RHP, College:  Underslot- $98 K

Claimed off waivers by the Reds organization 12/7/2022.  Looks like he is still in the Reds organization.

30.  Justin Crump RHP, College:  Underslot- $25 K

Released 8/15/2021 after recording a 5.94 ERA with the San Jose Giants.

Summary:  If McCray, Fitzgerald and McDonald become MLB regulars, which looks possible, this will be one of the stronger drafts in Giants history.  Bishop, Morreale and Waites still have outside shots at having MLB careers.

MLB Amateur Draft Review: 2019 Round One

After giving it some thought, I am inspired to get back to some draft content.  We'll do some reviews of past drafts to see what lessons might be learned and will start some scouting reports for the 2025 draft in which the Giants will likely end up selecting at #12 overall but could jump the line if they get lucky in the draft lottery.  When were the Giants last lucky in the draft?  

I think I was the first blogger/reporter to pick up FZ's spectacular failure in the first rounds of his drafts.  Of course the Sabean/Evans administratation also had a dismal record for at least 5 years prior but after reviewing those drafts it was apparent much of the problem was where the Giants were drafting rather than poor selecting.  We'll use the same process with FZ's drafts starting with 2019.

1. Orioles:  Adley Rutchsman C, College.  

2024 MLB:  .250/.318/.391, 19 HR, 9.1 BB%, 16.1 K%, 638 PA, 2.8 fWAR.  Down season after two 5+ fWAR seasons in 2022 and 2023.  Has fully played up to 1/1 pedigree.

2. Royals:  Bobby Witt Jr SS, HS.  

2024:  .332/.389/.588, 32 HR, 31 SB, 8.0 BB%, 15.0 K%, 709 PA, 10.4 fWAR.

Possible future HOF.  What you dream about when you draft in the top 5 of the the first round.  Locked up on an 11 year contract for $289 M which looks like a bargain for the Royals at this point.

3.  White Sox:  Andrew Vaughn 1B, College.

2024:  .246/.297/.402, 19 HR, 6.1 BB%, 21.3 K%, 619 PA, -0.2 fWAR.  

The bat has not progressed as projected and he has terrible defensive metrics away from 1B.  Got the ball in the air more in 2024 but with more pop ups and a lower HR/FB.  Intriguing trade target for a team that thinks they can unlock the bat.

4.  Marlins:  J. J. Bleday OF, College.

2024(A's):  .243/.324/.437, 20 HR, 10.4 BB%, 19.5 K%, 642 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Took longer to reach the majors than you might expect from a first round draft pick from a program like Vanderbilt.  Traded from the Marlins to the A's for A J Puk LHP.  Turned in a decent season after struggling in 2022 and 2023. 

5.  Tigers:  Riley Greene OF, HS.

2024:  .262/.348/.479, 24 HR, 11.0 BB%, 26.7 K%, 548 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

Some thought he was the best pure hitter in the draft.  Has improved his numbers each of his first 3 MLB seasons.  Probably not a future HOF but should have a long solid MLB career.

6.  Padres:  C. J. Abrams SS, HS.

.246/.314/.433, 20 HR, 31 SB, 6.6 BB%, 21.3 K%, 602 PA, 1.9 fWAR.

This guy would be considered a star in the NL of the 1960's and '70's but in today's game his WAR value takes a hit from a low walk rate and mediocre fielding numbers.  Padres traded him as part of a package for Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

7.  Reds:  Nick Lodolo LHP, College.

2024:  9-6, 4.76, 9.52 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 115 IP, 2.1 fWAR.

Put up a 3.66 ERA in 103 IP his rookie season in 2022.  Numbers partially rebounded after a disastrous sophomore season.

8.  Rangers:  Josh Jung 3B, College.

2024:  .264/.298/.421, 7 HR, 4.3 BB%, 25.5 K%, 188 PA, 0.3 fWAR.

Missed time with a wrist injury in 2024 but subpar K/BB's even when healthy don't bode well for a great career.

9. Braves:  Shea Langeliers C, College.

.224/.288/.450, 29 HR, 7.7 BB%, 27.2 K%, 534 PA, 2.0 fWAR.

High K rates will probably continue to suppress his BA but has legit power.  Disappointing defensive numbers.  Langeliers was traded from the Braves to the A's as part of a package for Matt Olson.  

10. Giants:  Hunter Bishop OF, College.

2024 AA:  .242/314/.358, 2 HR, 5 SB, 8.7 BB%, 31.4 K%, 105 PA.

2024 AAA:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 8.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, 413.

I liked the pick at the time although I have never trusted college batting stats from Arizona. I think 2024 was the first healthy season for Bishop since he was drafted and after missing all of 2023.  K rate was still way too high. Maybe a new front office philosophy will trickle down enough for him to cut down on the K's. If you squint hard that might make him a legit prospect. But yeah, not a great pick in retrospect.

11.  Blue Jays:  Alek Manoah RHP, College.

2024:  1-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9.  

Manoah was someone I liked for the Giants in this draft.  He burst on the scene in 2021 and went 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA in 2022.  He's been an enigma since.  He underwent Tommy John surgery midseason and probably won't pitch again until 2026.

12.  Mets:  Brett Baty 3B, HS.

2024:  .229/.306/.327, 4 HR, 9.4 BB%, 24.6 K%, 171 PA, 0.5 fWAR.  

Has struggled with the transition to MLB but improved his BB% each season and at 24 yo still has time to break out.

13:  Twins:  Keoni Cavaco SS, HS.

2024(A+):  .144/.202/.327, 4 HR, 6.1 BB%, 43.9 K%, 114 PA.

Popped up late in the draft cycle and like many late pop-up prospects, he was a mirage.  Draft bust for the Twins who released him midseason.  He was picked up by the Astros but has a long way to go to regain prospect status.

14.  Phillies:  Bryson Stott SS, College.

2024:  .245/.315/.356, 11 HR, 32 SB, 9.3 BB%, 16.3 K%, 571 PA, 1.9 fWAR.  

Stott is the guy I thought the Giants were most likely to draft, partly because Bishop was off my board by #10.  Stott put up a 4.2 fWAR season in 2023 but regressed last season and looks like his longterm position is 2B rather than SS. He's not a great fielder at either position.

15.  Angels:  Will Wilson SS, College.

2024(AA):  .224/.299/.315, 5 HR, 6 SB, 9.4 BB%, 19.4 K%, 360 PA.

2024(AAA):  .188/.300/.224, 10.0 BB%, 26 K%, 100 PA.

Perhaps not other deal is as symbolic of the failure of the FZ regime than him taking on Zack Cozart's $12 M contract to essentially get another first round pick from the 2019 draft.... which by now is all but a busted deal.  It's just extremely hard to see a path to a MLB career for Wilson at this point.

16.  D'Backs:  Corbin Carroll OF, HS.

2024:  .231/.322/.428, 22 HR, 35 SB, 10.7 BB%, 19.0 K%, 684 PA, 4.0 fWAR.

I don't think it's a stretch to say you don't need hindsight to know Carroll should have been the Giants pitch at #10.  Maybe they were scared off by his relatively small stature but he's a true 5-tool athlete.  Maybe they thought he was a difficult sign but he signed for near slot at #16.  He'll always be the one who got away in my mind.

17.  Nationals:  Jackson Rutledge RHP, JC.

2024(AAA):  4-9, 6.40, 122.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 5.66 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 3.24, 8.1 IP, 9.72 K/9, 2.16 BB/9.

Exciting size and velocity coming out of JC ball, but never developed command.  At this point projects as a relief arm at best.

18.  Pirates:  Quinn Priester RHP, HS.

2024(2 teams):  3-6, 4.71, 49.2 IP, 5.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.

HS pitching prospect who did not develop as hoped for the Pirates. Multi-pitch mix but none are dominant and FB is low 90's.  Traded to the Red Sox for another former first rounder who needed a change of scenery, Nick Yorke SS.  

19.  Cardinals:  Zack Thompson LHP, College.

2024:  0-2, 9.53, 17 IP, 10.59 K/9, 4.24 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  4-6, 4.40, 90 IP, 10.80 K/9, 5.60 BB/9.

Has split time between AAA and MLB last 3 seasons.  Regressed in 2024 after promising 2022 and 2023. Per Fangraphs, FB velocity was down from 94.8 in 2022 to 91.4.

20.  Mariners:  George Kirby RHP, College.

2024:  14-11, 3.53, 191 IP, 8.43 K/9, 1.08 BB/9.

Incredibly consistent workhorse with almost identical lines the past two seasons.  

21.  Braves:  Braden Shewmake SS, College.

2024(White Sox):  .125/.134/.203, 1.5 BB%, 14.9 K%, 67 PA, -0.7 fWAR.

Traded by the Braves in a package to the White Sox for Aaron Bummer P.  Numbers took a disastrous turn along with almost the entire White Sox organization.  What's going on there?

22.  Rays:  Greg Jones OF, College.

2024(Rockies, AAA):  .269/.346/.460, 16 HR, 46 SB, 9.1 BB%, 35.2 K%, 406 PA.  

2024(Rockies, MLB:  .200/.333/.800, HR, 6 PA.  

Speedy OF with some pop but with extreme K rate.  Only MLB hit is a HR.  Traded from Rays to Rockies for Joe Rock P in March 2024.

23.  Rockies:  Michael Toglia 1B, College.

2024:  .218/.311/.456, 25 HR, 11.8 BB%, 32.1 K%, 458 PA, 0.4 fWAR.

Nice power but high K rate, low BA and subpar defense at 1B limit his value.  

24.  Guardians:  Daniel Espino RHP, HS.

Last pitched in 2022 and underwent reconstructive surgery on his shoulder after a promising start to his pro career in the lower minors. That's the risk of drafting HS pitchers.

25.  Dodgers:  Kody Hoese 3B, College.

2024(AAA):  .287/.361/.474, 17 HR, 9.9 BB%, 19.8 K%, 525 PA.  

Decent line at AAA after spending 3 seasons at AA.  

26.  D'Backs:  Blake Walston LHP, HS.

2024(AAA):  3-2, 4.85, 65.1 IP, 9.42 K/9, 4.29 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  1-0, 4.42, 18.1 IP, 8.84 K/9, 4.91 BB/9.

AAA Reno is a tough place to pitch, but Fangraphs listed FB velocity of 91.4 not encouraging nor is walk rates.

27.  Cubs:  Ryan Jensen RHP, College.

2024(AAA, Twins):  4-5, 4.76, 56.2 IP, 12.86 K/9, 7.94 BB/9.

Has churned through multiple organizations since being DFA'd by the Cubs in 2023.  Tough to see a MLB future with that walk rate.

28.  Brewers:  Ethan Small LHP, College.

Hey!  He's currently in the Giants organization and on the 40-man MLB roster.  Spent most of 2024 on the IL due to an oblique strain suffered in the spring.

29.  A's:  Logan Davidson 1B, College.

2024(AAA):  .300/.366/.535, 14 HR, 7 SB, 7.8 BB%, 31.1 K%, 310 PA.

Currently listed as a SS but plays multiple positions.  Seems like the A's could give him a shot at one of them.

30. Yankees:  Anthony Volpe SS, HS.

2024:  .243/.293/.364, 12 HR, 28 SB, 6.1 BB%, 22.6 K%, 689 PA, 3.4 fWAR.

You know who Volpe is if you had the stomach to watch the World Series between the two evil empires.  Yanks have a knack for finding value with late first round draft picks.

Summary:

This was FZ's and Scouting Director Michael Holmes first draft with the Giants. On top of that, Holmes wife died from cancer complications shortly before the draft so I'm not going to be too harsh.  I am not aware of any major red flags on Hunter Bishop and he had an outstanding college batting line.  Unfortunately it looks like this was a strong draft with value throughout the first round and relatively few busts.  Probably still too early to give up on Bishop but he has to step up in 2025.  The apparent failure of Will Wilson to reward the $12 M cost of taking on Zack Cozart's contract makes this draft even more painful for Giants fans.