Thursday, October 31, 2024

Hot Stove Update: Zack Minasian is Posey's Pick for GM; Soler Traded Again

It didn't take long for the Hot Stove to heat up as the morning after the World Series ended. We saw a flurry of options picked up and declined plus a couple more significant moves.  

I'm guessing Buster Posey knew who his GM was at least a few days ago and was waiting for the end of the postseason to announce it.  He went inside the organization to elevate Zack Minasian from VP of Professional Scouting to GM.  While Zack has an interesting and extensive pedigree, I think that quite irrelevant to the decision.   What I think is relevant is he was one of Farhan Zaidi's first hires out of the Brewers organization and FZ promoted him to the professional scouting role.  I also think it's relevant that his experience is on the professional scouting side as opposed to amateur.  To me, this suggests Buster want to hit the ground running at the upcoming GM and Winter Meetings and wants someone in the GM seat who already has extensive knowledge of the players they may pursue in trades and free agent signings.  That seems like a smart move on Buster's part, especially if his agenda is not to work through a 5-year rebuild.  

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Poor Jorge Soler is getting passed around like a hot potato.  The other very early Hot Stove League news was the Braves trading him to the Angels for Griffin Canning RHP.  The trade was straight up, no money changing hands and no other players.  The move makes more sense from the Braves end as Soler was redundant with Marcel Ozuna and they get an innings-eating SP in return.  The Angels had the second worst pitching in MLB last season and the third worst hitting, so this trade seems like a bit of wheel spinning.  I will say the free agent pitching class this Hot Stove League season seems a lot deeper than the hitting class so maybe the Angels figure Canning is easier to replace than signing a hitter or two.

Giants Depth Charts: Designated Hitter

Ironically, despite the double of the number of available DH jobs there are fewer dedicated full-time DH's in the game as the industry has moved toward using the role as a rotational way to give position players a rest day while keeping them in the lineup.  I tend to favor a full time DH as it offers a chance to significantly upgrade the lineup with a hitter who would otherwise be a liability on the field.  

Last season FZ went out and signed a DH, Jorge Soler, who got off to a slow start with disappointing power numbers.  I read somwhere that Soler blamed his power outage on Oracle Park but to my eye the biggest problem was while he hit the ball hard, he rarely got enough loft on the ball to hit it out of any park.  As the season progressed, Bob Melvin put him in the leadoff spot where he thrived and was one of the better hitters in a weak lineup.  FZ traded him at the deadline and didn't really replace him in a move that seemed both petulant and running up the white flag on the season.   The trade did clear $12 M/yr from payroll for the next two seasons which can now be allocated elsewhere but it not like it was an albatross contract.  

The other point I'll make about the DH position is while you want to fill it with your best available hitter who otherwise would not contribute in the field, all things being equal I think if you use a primary DH, it should preferably be a lefty batter to give you the matchup advantage 75% of the PA's which is why I advocated for Brandon Belt for the the role last season.  Buster might still want to consider bringing the bigger Brandon back for one more rodeo at the DH position in 2025.

Of players currently on the 40-man roster, Jerar Encarnacion is probably #1 on the depth chart. Although part of me is curious to see what Jerar could do with 600 PA's as DH you really want a more seasoned hitter in the role.  Wilmer Flores would also be a consideration if the Giants let him hang around after he exercises his player option.

I also don't count out David Villar, Marco Luciano or Wade Meckler for the role and I am sure Bryce Eldridge will do his share of DH'ing after he makes his MLB debut.

Free agents who MLBTR lists as DH's includes J. D. Martinez(37 yo), Andrew McCutchen(38 yo), Anthony Santander(30 yo, also listed for RF), Justin Turner(40 yo) Tyler O'Neill(30 yo) and Jesse Winker(30 yo).  Not exactly an exciting bunch there.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Right Field

 Right field is a position primed for upgrade this offseason.  

MLB:

Mike Yastrzemski:  .231/.302/.437, 9 3B, 18 HR, 3 SB, 474 PA.
Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.  

YtY is the current incumbent, possibly in a R-L platoon with Jerar or Luis Matos.  This is one of the more likely positions for Buster to look for an upgrade starting with the consensus #1 free agent on the market, Juan Soto.  Speaking of Juan Soto, is it just me or has his defense in much easier RF's to play been disastrous in the World Series?  Other free agent RF's include Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander.  If one is signed by the arbitration tender deadline, I could see YtY not getting a contract offer or he could be moved to a 4'th OF role backing up all 3 positions.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .248/.318/.388, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

If Bishop can build on a healthy season after missing all of 2023, I could see him getting a midseason call up depending on organizational needs at the MLB level.  2025 is probably his last chance to find traction on his pro career.

AA:  

Victor Bericoto:  .261/.309/.384, 11 HR, 6 SB, 479 PA.

As commenters have said, don't sleep on Victor Bericoto.  He's a hitter.  I could see him busting out in Sacramento and getting a midseason callup, again determined by needs at the MLB level.

A+:

James Tibbs III:  A:  .415/.429/.512, 2.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, 42 PA.  A+:  .134/.216/.239, 2 HR, 9.5 BB%, 33.8 K%, 74 PA.  
Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 10.9 BB%, 35.3 K%, 275 PA.

Tibbs had a disappointing pro debut for a first round draft pick out of a major college conference, but it's a small sample.  He needs to start 2025 at A+ and get his K rate below 30% while keeping his BB% closer to 10 than 0.  Nolasco has in interesting power/speed combo but needs to cut down on his K rate.

A:  

Cesar Quintas:  .228/.320/.386, 12 HR, 3 SB, 8.6 BB%, 21.8 K%, 440 PA.

Saw him play. Good looking young hitter.  Smoked a HR to LF that went out on a line.  K/BB looks good but needs to hit for more average.  Maybe his low BABIP of .270 will positively regress?  

ACL:

None

DSL

Carlos Concepcion:  .244/.362/.366, 3 HR, 7 SB, 11.6 BB%, 30.7 K%, 199 PA.

18 yo who regressed a little in his second DSL season.

Summary:

Opportunity to upgrade RF seems to align with available free agents.  Buster's challenge is getting one signed.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Centerfield

On paper, this critically important position is locked down by for at least the next 3 seasons by Jung Hoo Lee but he is coming off a major injury/surgery, fortunately on his non-throwing shoulder.  

MLB:

Jung Hoo Lee:  .262/.310/.331, 2 HR, 2 SB, 6.3 BB%, 8.2 K%, 156 PA.
Grant McCray:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 5 SB, 4.6 BB%, 43.1 K%, 130 PA.
Luis Matos:  .202/.238/.379, 5 HR, 3.2 BB%, 15.4 K%, 156 PA.
Wade Meckler:  AAA:  .288/.357/.508, 8 HR, 3 SB, 196 PA.

Giants are in a bit of a weird situation in that Lee is paid a whole lot of money to be the starting CF for at least the next 3 years(I think he has a opt out after his 4'th season.  The weirdness comes from Grant McCray obviously having louder tools and a higher ceiling.  That situation can be easily defused by giving McCray the salt he needs with more time in AAA.  The other reason for optimism is almost everybody expected a transition period from the KBO to MLB for Lee.  There were signs he might be coming out of his early season struggles with .310 BA over his last 7 games before he was hurt, but does he start over now?  Also note Mike Yastrzemski would be #2 except he's the starter in RF.  One likely scenario is the Giants sign a RF in free agency and move YtY to a 4'th OF role in which he would be the #2 CF.  Less likely the Giants will not tender him a contract offer at the arbitration deadline and he becomes a free agent.

AAA:

Hunter Bishop:  (2 teams) .245/.315/.380, 11 HR, 15 SB, 518 PA.  

Bishop is probably not a CF at the MLB level but played about 1/3 of his games there in the minors this season.

AA

Carter Howell:  .272/.347/.391, 30 2B, 7 3B, 3 HR, 15 SB, 9.3 BB%, 19.6 K%, 505 PA.
Turner Hill:  A+:  .270/.383/.414, 3 HR, 15 SB, 13.5 BB%, 10.1 K%, 207 PA.  AA:  .266/.364/.324, 14 SB, 10.8 BB%, 14.0 K%, 222 PA.

A couple of UDFA's who more than held their own in a notoriously hitter-unfriendly environment.  No defensive scouting reports but both appear to have enough speed to play CF.  Both need a bit more HR power.

A+:

Jonah Cox:  A:  .297/.412/.384, 2 HR, 38 SB, 13.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, 275 PA.  A+:  .225/.324/.350, 3 HR, 20 SB, 11.9 BB%, 31.9 K%, 185 PA.

A:  

Bo Davidson:  .328/.438/.608, 7 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 14.2 BB%, 23.9 K%, 226 PA.
Jose Ortiz:  ACL:  .306/.455/.400, HR, 10 SB, 12.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 112 PA.  

Bo Davidson is another UDFA with some size and tools.  Probably too advanced for A ball.  Getting a few more higher level PA's in the AFL.  Should start next season at A+ and we'll get a better feel for his potential.  Ortiz was a HS draftee out of Puerto Rico in 2023 so still has some time to develop.

ACL:

Rayner Arias:  .250/.371/.364, 8 2B, 3 SB, 11.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 105 PA. 

Don't forget about Rayner Arias.  One of the most highly rated international prospects from the 2023 cycle.  Early development slowed by a wrist injury.  Looking forward to seeing what he can do another winter of recovery.

DSL:

Oliver Tejada:  .300/.405/.488, 5 HR, 13 SB, 10.7 BB%, 18.5 K%, 205 PA.
Miguel Blanco:  .255/.398/.336, 5 SB, 17.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 171 PA.
Luis Frias:  .224/.327/.329, HR, 13 SB, 10.8 BB%, 29.9 K%, 143 PA.

Baseball America had high praise for the Giants 2024 international signing cycle.  Tejada was one of those signings who performed well in his pro debut.  Blanco and Frias are 19 and 20 yo respectively and probably too old to be considered Dominican Dandies.

Summary

The Giants have a lot riding on a comeback from Jung Hoo Lee after a devastating injury.  Grant McCray has a higher ceiling but needs more seasoning.  There are some intriguing prospects in between but Rayner Arias is the next highly rated CF prospect but he's been long projected to end up in a corner OF position. Time will tell.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Left Field

Outfield depth charts get tricky since many outfielders can play more than one defensive OF position.  The rule for this exercise is if a player is listed as the starter at one position they can't be a back up at another position but a back up player can back up multiple position.  Got it?  Good!  

MLB:  

Heliot Ramos:  .269/322/.469, 22 HR, 6 SB, 518 PA.  
Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.
Wade Meckler:  Minors(5 teams):  .280/.366/.423, 9 HR, 9 SB, 383 PA.

Ramos had a breakthrough season and was one of the more consistent producers at the plate.  His numbers did regress some in the second half, but did not crater.  Can he apply the lessons he learned from this season and take it to the next level in 2025?  He certainly deserves that opportunity and is the presumptive staring LF.  Encarnacion has tremendous raw power but needs to cut down on the K's to turn it into game power.  Wade Meckler put on an impressive power surge over the final 6 weeks of the season in the minors. The rest of his game has always been solid so he deserves another look at the MLB level at some point.

AAA:  

Hunter Bishop:  .245/.316/.386, 9 HR, 10 SB, 413 PA.  

This was by far Bishop's best pro season.  His development has been delayed by COVID and a series of injuries.  Will the Giants keep him around for another season to see if he can build on his modest success?

AA:

Ismael Munguia:  AA:  .317/.404/.461, 5 HR, 11 SB, 194 PA.  AAA:  .250/.368/.368, 2 HR, 7 SB, 178 PA.
Jairo Pomares:  .238/.280/.434, 12 HR, 9 SB, 336 PA.
Matt Higgins:  .262/.339/.330, HR, 2 SB, 119 PA.

A+:

Rodolfo Nolasco:  .234/.331/.418, 10 HR, 9 SB, 275 PA.
Alexander Suarez:  .282/.323/.475, 9 HR, 15 SB, 217 PA.
Scott Bandura:  A:  .276/.389/.362, 5 SB, 126 PA.  A+:  .227/.332/.374, 6 HR, 19 SB, 247 PA.

Nolasco was acquired from the Pirates in May for Daulton Jeffries in The Churn.  He's got some tools but needs to make more contact.  Suarez is as tooled up as anyone in the organization but has developed slowly.  Bandura also has some tools but needs to get bigger and stronger.

A:  

Lisbel Diaz: ACL:  .329/.411/.539, 4 HR, 90 PA.  A:  .279/.333/.433, 6 HR, 8 SB, 255 PA.
Jakob Christian:  .267/.378/.500, HR, 37 PA.  

Diaz is going to jump way up on prospect lists after an excellent age 18 season.  Christian is a big college slugger who needs a bigger pro sample to get a read on.

Summary:  

Left Field looks like Heliot's job to lose for the next 4-5 seasons.  I am excited long term for Lisbel Diaz but he has at least 2-3 seasons of development ahead of him. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: AAA Sacramento River Cats

 MLB teams using their AAA affiliates for roster depth is nothing new but under Farhan Zaidi's regime the Sacramento River Cats were integral to The Churn with resulting roster chaos for the affiliate.  FZ did deploy more younger, rising prospects at the level but they tended to not stay long due to his peripatetic promotions over the past two seasons and if they flamed out with the Giants, well, they just got sent back down!  Here are the numbers:

Batting Average(min. 100 PA's): 

Jerar Encarnacion OF:  .352
Donovan Walton IF:  .306
Trenton Brooks 1B/OF:  .302
Brett Wisely IF:  .301
Heliot Ramos OF:  .296.

Doubles:  

David Villar IF:  26
Luis Matos OF:  22
Jakson Reetz C:  20

Triples:

Brett Auerbach UT:  4
Grant McCray OF:  4
Donovan Walton IF:  4

Home Runs:

David Villar:  16
Luis Matos:  14
Casey Schmitt IF:  13.

Stolen Bases:

Casey Schmitt:  11
Blake Sabol C/OF:  11
Hunter Bishop OF:  10
Trenton Brooks:  10

ERA(min 50 IP):

Tommy Romero RHP:  3.14
Justin Garza RHP:  3.42
Mason Black RHP:  4.59
Carson Seymour RHP:  4.82

Strikeouts:

Carson Whisenhunt LHP:  135
Carson Seymour RHP:  132
Clay Helvey RHP:  97

Summary

Buster Posey and his new GM will have quite a task sorting through this rather motley crew deciding who are keepers and who to move on from.  Hopefully they will dial back on The Churn and the frantic promotion schedule, or non-schedule, and concentrate on skill development which takes time and patience.

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Shortstop

As we head into the Hot Stove League, the Giants have a clear #1 on their shortstop depth chart, Tyler Fitzgerald.  The question is whether he will still be #1 when spring training starts.  We'll look at who is backing him up and who the Giants might bring in during Hot Stove action.  

MLB:

Tyler Fitzgerald:  .280/.334/.497, 15 HR, 17 SB, 341 PA.
Brett Wisely:  .238/.278/.345, 4 HR, 272 PA.
Donovan Walton:  .136/.240/.273, 25 PA.
Casey Schmitt:  .252/.283/.477, 6 HR, 113 PA.

Fitz' numbers took a nosedive over the final month of the season.  Was he out of gas or did the league's pitchers get a book on him?  He wasn't great on defense but was he that bad?  IMO, the best metric for defense is Fangraphs UZR/150.  Fitz was at -2.0 which ranked #22 out of SS's who played at least 500 innings.  For reference, Anthony Volpe of the Yankees was at 0.0, Trea Turner was at -1.1, Masyn Winn was at -3.8, Elly De La Cruz -9.5 and Carlos Correa -9.7.  If Fitz can maintain or improve his offensive production and overcome some rookie mistakes, he's a viable starting SS, IMO. That's not to say if the Giants have a chance to sign Willy Adames they shouldn't do it.

AAA

Christian Koss(3 teams):  .299/.376/.496, 9 HR, 13 SB. 
Dariel Lopez:  DNP
Will Wilson(2 teams):  .216/.299/.296.

Koss is an interesting depth option.  Lopez spend the entire season on the IL and has not played since 2022.  We've discussed Will Wilson several times. Hard to see him not being released by the new management regime.

AA:

Diego Velasquez(2 teams):  .288/.368/.384, 4 3B, 4 HR, 21 SB, 488 PA.

Velasquez is a serious prospect who was an international bonus baby in 2021, is still just 21 yo and has another year of development before he has to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.  He more than held his own after a promotion to AA which is where many positional prospects hit the wall.  Prospects who can play at AA are generally considered almost ready to play MLB.  He might actually be #2 on the depth chart behind Fitzgerald.

A+

Aeverson Arteaga(2 teams):  .209/.308/.319, HR, 3 SB, 104 PA.
Cole Foster(2 teams):   .213/.293/.318, 11 HR, 9 SB, 335 PA.

I've been bullish on Arteaga but he lost most the the season to an injury.  2025 will be critical to see if he can fully recover.  He's a guy who still needed a lot of development before the injury.  Foster has been a disappointment at the plate since he was a 3'rd round draft pick in 2023.

A:  

Zander Darby:  .234/.351/.489, 4 HR, 57 PA.
Walker Martin(2 levels):  .218/.391/.362, 8 HR, 6 SB, 128 K, 312 PA.
Maui Ahuna(2 levels):  .268/.369/.394, 4 HR, 8 SB, 149 PA.
Ramon Peralta(2 levels):  .239/.352/.374, 194 PA.

An interesting collection of prospects here.  Darby is the new draftee out of college who could be a fast riser.  Martin is a bit of an enigma so far.  Shows great size and tools but the K rate is through the roof even for a HS draftee in his first full season.  Will need to figure out how to cut those down.  Ahuna is a plus defensive SS when healthy.  Can he stay healthy and will he hit enough?  Peralta has been slow riser.  Signed in the same internations cycle as Diego Velasquez.

ACL:  

None.  

Martin, Ahuna and Peralta took most of the innings at SS here before moving up late.

DSL:

Jhonny Level:  .275/.393/.517, 10 HR, 18 SB, 215 PA.
Yosneiker Rivas:  .245/.408/.345, 181 PA.
Keiberg Camacaro:  .225/.398/.314, 4 SB, 133 PA.

Jhonny Level is one of the more exciting young prospects in the Giants system.  I am pretty sure I will rank him in at least the top 10 of my Top 50 Giants prospect list.  I was hoping to see more of a progression from Camacaro after he got a full DSL season at age 16 and showed some pop and speed.

2024-2025 Free Agent Shortstops:

Willy Adames
Ha Seong Kim($8 M mutual option with $2 M buyout):
Nick Ahmed
Tim Anderson
Brandon Crawford

I only put Ahmed, Anderson and Crawford on the list to show how shallow it is.  Adames and Kim are really the only upgrades available and Kim comes with significant injury concerns.

Summary:  I would say the Giants should go after Kim except he just had surgery to repair the labrum on his shoulder and throwing is kind of important for a SS.  He is also not expected to be ready to start the season although may be fairly early.  I just think we saw enough of signing players coming off injuries in the FZ EraWilly Adames is definite substantial upgrade, but the only one on the market and there will be a whole lot of teams pursuing him.  If it's not Adames, I would say stick with Fitzgerald with Diego Velasquez coming up fast as depth.  Beyond Velasquez the organization has multiple interesting prospects in the pipeline and could get a big addition if they sign the #1 international prospect in January as expected.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Thoughts on Juan Soto

Let's take a break from grinding through the Giants Minor League Season Reviews and Depth Charts and dream a little.  As you may have noticed, I haven't had much to say about the postseason since the mission of this blog is to chronicle my thoughts on Giants baseball and the Giants aren't in the postseason!  I have been half-heartedly watching the games, though, and a couple of things are striking to me:  1.  The talent gap between the Dodgers and Yankees and everybody else but especially between them and the Giants.  Hint:  It's not narrow!  2.  Almost every postseason team has a Hall of Fame level hitter in in their lineup and several of them have two or even three.  

Which brings us to Juan Soto who will be a free agent in less than 3 weeks.  Juan Soto is one of those Hall of Fame level hitters that the Giants currently don't have.  The conventional wisdom is the Giants have zero chance of signing Juan Soto for several reasons:  He's had a taste of playing in New York for the Yankees, the Giants recent track record of futility signing big name free agents, Oracle Park.  What?  Not so fast?  A beat writer for the San Francisco Chronicle wrote yesterday that the Giants have an inkling that the Yankees and Dodgers may not be his dream situation, that he might want to be THE guy to lead another team.  Not sure where this inkling might be coming from but Bob Melvin was his manager for 1+ seasons with the Padres.

That got me thinking.  What would it take for the Giants to convince Juan Soto to come join the legacies of Willie Mays, Barry Bonds and, ahem, Buster Posey?  And if such a thing is possible, is it something the Giants should do?  First, a few facts:

1.  Juan Soto is a very good ballplayer.  In 7 MLB seasons he's already accumulated 36.3 fWAR which averages out to a little over 5 per season.  He's already had at least 3 seasons with fWAR of at least 6.0.

2.  Soto is coming off his best season with 8.1 fWAR and has 14.1 over his last two seasons.

3.  Soto won't turn 26 years old until next week.  Think about that!  He's a 7 year veteran and is just finishing his age 25 season meaning he probably has not had his peak season(s) yet.  For comps sake, Aaron Judge signed his 9 yr/$360 M contract after his age 30 season.  Shohei Ohtani signed his 10 yr/$700 M* contract after his age 28 season.  *most of Ohtani's money is deferred making his AAV for "luxury tax" purposes $47 M.  

4.  Oracle Park is the hardest park in all of MLB to hit HR's in.  It's Park Factor for HR's is 0.78 compared to Yankee Stadium's 1.19.  There's a reason why star hitters don't want to play half their games in Oracle Park especially if they think they will want/need to sign a future contract.  But what if it's the last contract they will ever sign as players?  Hmm......

Big Question:  Should the Giants offer Juan Soto 15 yr/$600 M, no deferred money, no opt-outs.(that's an AAV of $40 M, same as Judge but for 6 years longer, less AAV than Ohtani but for 5 years longer playing time and about $150 M more than Ohtani's inflation-adjusted total)?  Corollary Question:  Would Soto accept such a deal?  Corollary Question:  What about offering an option to buy into the ownership group at retirement?  Would that change the amount money Soto would accept in the contract or would a perk of that magnitude be required over and above?

Share and support your answers in the Comments.

Friday, October 18, 2024

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: AA Richmond Flying Squirrels

 Like other Giants minor league affiliates, the Flying Squirrels probably suffered from the nearly constant flow of prospects in and out.  Not saying aggressive development is a bad thing, just that it probably holds back team performance.  On the positive side,  Richmond was a stop off on the rise of Grant McCray and Bryce Eldridge.  More on that later.  Here are the numbers for the top performers for the Giants in AA: 

Batting Average(100 or more PA's):  

Ismael Munguia OF  .317
Diego Velasquez SS  .313
Carter Howell OF  .272

Doubles:

Carter Howell 30
Victor Bericoto 22
Jairo Pomares 19

Triples:

Carter Howell  7
Jairo Pomares  3
Grant McCray  3

Home Runs:  

Jairo Pomares 12
Victor Bericoto 11
Luis Toribio 8

Stolen Bases:

Carter Howell  15
Turner Hill  14
Ismael Munguia  11

ERA(50 or more IP)

Tanner Kiest RHP  2.62
Wil Jensen RHP  3.43
Carson Ragsdale RHP  3.49

Strikeouts:

John Bertrand LHP  119
Wil Jensen RHP  99
Carson Ragsdale RHP  90

Saves:

Tyler Myrick  6
Nick Garcia  5
Mat Olsen  5
Tanner Kiest  5

Summary:

The big story in the Giants farm system is Bryce Eldridge.  He was promoted from A+ at the end of the NWL season then to Sacramento for more PA's due to the season lasting longer at the higher levels.  Given his young age and rapid rise, I would probably advocate for him to start next season at AA and make him prove it over at least a half season of PA's.  It might be frustrating for him and for fans who are dying to see the next homegrown positional superstar at the MLB level but the experience will toughen him up for what he will face once he gets there.

Beyond Eldridge, the big stories to me are Carter Howell, another UDFA success story, who played a full season at the level and did not falter and Diego Velasquez who continued to hit after promotion from A+ ball.

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Third Base

Depth charting this position seems little academic as Matt Chapman pretty much has it locked down for the next 6 seasons.  Six seasons?  Yikes!  That's a long time!  I will be in my mid-70's by then!  

MLB:  

Matt Chapman:  .247/.328/.463, 27 HR, 15 SB, 647 PA.  
Wilmer Flores:  .206/277/.318, 4 HR, 242 PA.
Casey Schmitt:  .252/.283/.477, 6 HR, 113 PA.

Chapman had a tremendous season and parlayed that into a 6-year extension.  Reminder that the best season of Wilmer's career came just one year ago.  He's almost certain to pick up his player option for $3 M.  If he's healthy, he has a decent chance to bounce back.  We'll say it again, Young Casey looked like a different hitter in his end-of-season call up, but he'll have to find another primary position or fill a utility role now with Chapman blocking him at 3B for the next 6 years.

AAA:  

Will Wilson(2 levels):  .216/.299/.296, 5 HR, 6 SB, 460 PA's. 

At this point, Wilson is more likely a candidate for release than for the depth chart at any position.  Why his bat never came around is one of the great mysteries of prospect watching.

AA: 

Justin Wishkoski:  A+:  .261/.349/.375, 5 HR, 16 SB, 324 PA.  AA: .243/.331/.340, 2 HR, 2 SB, 120 PA.
Luis Toribio:  .209/.307/.383, 8 HR, 239 PA. 

Wishkoski and Toribio have opposite issues:  Wishkoski shows surprisingly little power for a guy his size while Toribio has hit 21 HR's in a season but with K rates approaching 40%. Time is more on Wishkoski's side.

A+

Sabin Ceballos:  .269/.356/.407, 10 HR, 9 SB, 517 PA.
Charlie Szykowny: A:  .340/.405/.505, 2 HR, 242 PA.  A+:  .235/.300/.379, 4 HR, 4 SB, 170 PA.

7 of Ceballos 10 HR came after his trade from the pitching-friendly SAL to the NWL.  Szykowny is listed as a SS but most of his pro innings have come at 3B.  

A:

Robert Hipwell:  .196/.360/.402, 5 HR, 136 PA.
Elian Rayo:  .243/.328/.356, 5 HR, 305 PA.

A pair of 21 yo 3B who got to SJ by very different routes.  Hipwell was the Giants 6'th round draft pick this year.  Rayo worked his way through the DSL and ACL.  Hipwell bats LH, Rayo R.  They both draw walks but with 30% K rates which seems to be where organizational philosophy evolved in the FZ era.

ACL:  

Dario Reynoso:  .206/.381/.323, 3 HR, 8 SB, 202 PA.  

Another huge disparity in BA vs OBP due to K rate approaching 40% which also holds down SLG%.  It will be interesting to watch for changes in batting approach as we enter the Buster Posey Era.

DSL:  

Juan Colorado:  .248/.330/.309, HR, 5 SB, 185 PA.
Albert Jimenez:  .264/.339/.405, 3 HR, 186 PA.

Juan Colorado has an 80 grade name but Jimenez had the slightly better stat line for this pair of 17 yo.

Outlook:  The  cupboard is quite bare at AAA and AAA but the Giants are set at 3B for the next 6 seasons.  The challenge for 3B prospects in the system is to hit well enough to force the organization to find another position for them or trade for a position of more need.

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: A+ Eugene Emeralds

 In the last two years of FZ's regime as POBO, the Giants promoted prospects frenetically which makes for challenging season recaps for any level.  It's also likely the constant roster churning in the minor leagues made it hard for teams to sustain winning.  Let's get to the numbers:

Batting Average(100 or more PA's):  

Bryce Eldridge  .335
Sabin Ceballos  .295
Alexander Suarez  .282
Diego Velasquez  .274

Doubles:

Quinn McDaniel  20
Diego Velasquez  16
Onil Perez  15
Justin Wishkoski 15

Triples:

Quinn McDaniel 4
Jonah Cox  4
Diego Velasquez 3

Home Runs:

Quinn McDaniel  13
Bryce Eldridge  12
Rodolfo Nolasco  10
Alexander Suarez  9

Stolen Bases:

Quinn McDaniel  40
Jonah Cox  20
Onil Perez  20

ERA(50 or more IP):

Jack Choate LHP- 2.90
Seth Lonsway LHP- 3.86
Cesar Perdomo LHP- 4.00

Strikeouts:

Manuel Mercedes RHP  89
Jack Choate  87
Daniel Blair 77

Best Prospect:  

Bryce Eldridge

Runner Up Best Prospect:

Diego Velasquez

Monday, October 14, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: Second Base

Just to show how much of a train wreck the Giants second base depth chart is, there are no less than 5 players on the 40-man MOB roster who have played the position if you don't count Wilmer Flores, who really can't anymore, and the guy who most of us probably think of as the incumbent starter at the position, Thairo Estrada, is not on the MLB roster and is a minor league free agent.  So let's try to unpile the wrecked train cars:

Brett Wisely:  .218/.263/.320, 4 HR, 272 PA.  
Casey Schmitt:  .252/.283/.477, 6 HR, 113 PA.
Donovan Walton:  .136/.240/.273, HR, 25 PA.
Marco Luciano:  .211/.259/.303, 81 PA.  

I am assuming Tyler Fitzgerald is the starting shortstop until proven otherwise, but it's a high probability the Giants will sign a veteran free agent to play short which would likely bump Fitz to where he would be the frontrunner to be the starter.  Brett Wisely hit well over his last 7 games and there's really no reason to choose Walton over him.  Casey Schmitt also hit well over his last 15 games and he accumulated 3 of his 4 walks on the season over that span in which he showed dramatically improved plate discipline. He may well be the best option for at least a weak side of a platoon with the lefthanded hitting Wisely.  It was really a lost season for Marco Luciano who seemed to take his defensive struggles with him to the plate and is probably being moved to the outfield.  

AAA:

Brett Auerbach: .281/.357/.444, 4 SB, 223 PA.

Auerbach could be on the depth chart for several positions but he played the most innings at 2B.

AA

Nate Furman:  A+:  .338/.417/.500, 7 HR, 8 SB, 176 PA.  AA:  .125/.300/.200, 2 SB, 51 PA.  
Jimmy Glowenke:  .199/.300/.309, 7 HR, 5 SB, 392 PA.
Andrew Kachel:  .228/.343/.386, 2 HR, 67 PA.

Furman was acquired in an August trade with the Guardians.  He did not play for any Giants affiliate and is listed on the 60-day IL.  Glowenke and Kachel are more utility types but both played more 2B than other positions.  I am counting Diego Velasquez as a SS.

A+

Quinn McDaniel:  .236/.345/.390, 13 HR, 40 SB, 511 PA.
Thomas Gavello:  .193/.322/.307, 7 HR, 9 SB, 304 PA.  

McDaniel has a nice combination of on-base skills and speed with a little pop.  Can he hit for enough average to maintain the OBP?  Gavello played multiple positions and needs to hit more.

A:  

Jean Carlos Sio:  .240/.378/.360, 4 HR, 11 SB, 308 PA.
Ryan Reckley:  ACL:  .283/.450/.489, 4 HR, 4 SB, 120 PA.  A:  .243/.308/.343, HR, 78 PA.

Sio and Reckley have some athleticism and are still young enough to break out.

ACL:

Jose Ramos:  .283/.426/.384, HR, 13 SB.

Sent back to ACL after playing most of 2023 in A San Jose.

DSL:

Anthony Marquez:  .279/.405/.369, HR, 10 SB, 149 PA.
Dennys Riera:  .244/.383/.349, HR, 107 PA.
Franco Willias:  .260/.359/.420, 3 HR, 8 SB, 154 PA.
Yoxander Benitez:  .232/.338/.319, 4 SB, 80 PA.

Marquez and Benitez were 17 yo.  Riera and Willias 19.

Free Agent Market:

Gleyber Torres
Kevin Newman
Adam Frazier
Thairo Estrada

Outlook:

As you can see, second base is a mess at the MLB level and there is no significant help in the upper minors.  Buster Posey could bring in a free agent but the second base free agent class is less than compelling.  Everybody seems to assume he will sign a SS and move Fitz to 2B but there is really only one SS on available, Willy Adames, and how likely is it for the Giants to sign him?  Ha Seong Kim?  He just had surgery on his shoulder and won't be ready to start the season.  Best option might be a platoon of Schmitt and Wisely or even bring back Estrada!

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: San Jose Giants

 The A level San Jose Giants featured Bryce Eldridge who emerged as the top prospect in the system as well as a mix of rising international prospects and 2023 draft picks.  Later in the season, as players were promoted, we saw an influx of ACL graduates and 2024 draft picks, most of whom ended up with small sample sizes.  Here is a breakdown of the top performers in selected categories:

Batting Average(100 or more PA's):  

Charlie Szykowny .340
Bo Davidson .328
Jonah Cox .297

Doubles:

Cesar Quintas 18
Cole Foster 16
Charlie Szykowny 16

Triples:

Bo Davidson 7
Charlie Szykowny 6
Jonah Cox 4

Home Runs:

Guillermo Williamson 12
Cesar Quintas 12
Bryce Eldridge 10
Bo Davidson 9

Stolen Bases:

Jonah Cox 38
Jean Carlos Sio 11
Luke Shliger 10

ERA(50 or more IP):

Dylan Carmouche 2.74
Brayan Palencia 2.91
Esmerlin Vinicio 3.59

Strikeouts:

Josh Bostick 121
Shane Rademacher 102
Dylan Carmouche 90

2024 Draft Picks:

James Tibbs III OF:  .415 BA 42 PA
Jeremiah Jenkins 1B:  .295 BA, 2 HR, 49 PA.
Jakob Christian OF:  .267, HR, 37 PA.
Zander Darby SS:  .234/.4 HR, 57 PA.
Robert Hipwell 3B:  .196, 5 HR 136 PA.
Dakota Jordan OF:  .000, 7 PA.

Top ProspectBryce Eldridge (who else?).  
Runner Up Top ProspectJames Tibbs III.

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Giants Depth Charts: First Base

Since the end of Brandon Belt's Giants career, they eschewed the traditional "big bat" first baseman in favor of a platoon centered around Lamonte Wade Jr who became on on-base machine but lacked the power you generally want to see from the position.  The Giants best prospect, Bryce Eldridge, primarily plays first base but Buster Posey signaled he's pumping the brakes on FZ's pushing prospects.  Whether to upgrade the first base position, at least in the short term, is one of Buster's biggest offseason decisions.  Here is the current Depth Chart:

MLB:

Lamonte Wade Jr.:  .260/.380/.381, 8 HR, 401 PA.  
Wilmer Flores:  .206/.277/.318, 4 HR, 242 PA.
Jerar Encarnacion:  .248/.277/.425, 5 HR, 119 PA.
David Villar:  MLB:  .257/.270/.457, HR, 37 PA.  AAA:  .260/.361/.441, 16 HR, 482 PA.

In defense of LMWJ, Oracle Park is still a big time suppressor of home runs.  His numbers are about what I think Joey Votto's would be if he played his home games there.  On the other hand, LMWJ's second half numbers were subpar by any measure and the right side of the platooned collapsed completely.  LMWJ is arbitration eligible.  Wilmer will likely pick up his option coming off the IL.  Encarnacion showed intriguing power but is a free swinger with a frightful K rate.  David Villar has never found traction at the MLB level and is out of options.  First base is an obvious upgrade opportunity for Buster Posey.

AAA:  

Bryce Eldridge 1B/DH:  4 Levels:  .291/.374/.516, 23 HR, 6 SB. 

Eldridge blew through 3 levels and mashed at all of them.  He's now considered a top prospect ranking #35 on MLB's Top 100.  The biggest remaining question seems to be when will he be given the starting first base job in Oracle Park?  Before he was fired, FZ stated the Giants would not pursue a top free agent first baseman so as not to block Eldridge.  One of Buster Posey's first statements was that Eldridge would be brought up when he was ready, not to meet team needs.  Trenton Brooks is listed on the River Cats roster but I am pretty sure he is eligible for minor league free agency.

AA

Andrew Kachel:  A+:  .261/.383/.335, 2 HR, 11 SB, 228 PA.  AA:  .228/.343/.386, 2 HR, 67 PA.  

Kachel is listed as a 2B but logged the most innings at 1B.  Could be a future utility player but doesn't seem to hit enough to be a starting 1B in MLB.  Logan Wyatt is listed as "voluntarily retired."

A+:  None

A

Jeremiah Jenkins:  .295/.367/.545, 2 HR, 49 PA.  

Jenkins is the Giants 14'th round draft pick in 2024.  Classic big, strong, B-L, T-L first baseman.  Got off to a great start to his pro career in a small sample.

ACL:  

Derwin Laya:  .290/.393/.384, 2 HR, 3 SB, 168 PA.

21 yo and third season in ACL. 

DSL:

Jesus Alexander:  .381/.437/.597, 5 HR, 197 PA.
Angel Guzman:  .305/.475/.523, 7 HR, 15 SB, 201 PA.

Two promising 18 yo hitting prospects.  Alexander is listed as a C and Guzman OF, but both played mostly 1B.  I would think both should be promoted to the ACL for 2025.

Top Available Free Agent First Basemen:

1.  Pete Alonso(30 yo)
2. Christian Walker(34 yo)
3. Paul Goldschmidt(37 yo)
4.  Carlos Santana(39 yo).

Summary:

After reviewing LMWJ's season stats, particularly his second half, I now believe the Giants should pursue an upgrade at 1B.  They desperately need power from any position and Alonso is an elite power hitter.  If he's signable, I would not let Bryce Eldridge veto it. While Eldridge is an exciting prospect, no prospect is a sure thing and the universal DH gives more flexibility if there is a logjam at the position.  If they can't get Alonso, they should take a serious look at Walker or Goldy on shorter term deals.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Giants 2024 Minor League Season Reviews: Arizona Complex League

 Since the start of the complex leagues was moved earlier in the season and the draft moved later, they have settled into a pattern where the rosters are made up mostly of DSL graduates and rehabbing players from higher levels.  Since most of the Giants 2024 draft prospects were college players they got assigned to to San Jose after an initial evaluation in camp.

Here is a summary of the top performers in the 2024 ACL:

Hitters:

Batting Average(at least 50 PA):  

Lisbel Diaz OF:  .329
Ramon Peralta SS:  .313
Jose Ortiz OF:  .306

Doubles:  

Ramon Peralta 9
Rayner Arias OF 8
Eliam Sandoval OF, Jose Ramos SS/2B, Dario Reynoso 3B/SS 7

Triples: 

Ramon Peralta 2
Jose Ramos 2
Ryan Reckley 2B 2

Home Runs:

Walker Martin SS- 6
Lisbel Diaz OF- 4
Ryan Reckley 2B- 4

Stolen Bases: 

Jose Ramos 13
Jose Ortiz 10
Dario Reynoso 8

Pitchers:

ERA(minimum 30 IP):

Keyner Martinez RHP  3.03
Alix Hernandez RHP 3.29
Mikell Manzano RHP 3.80.

Strikeouts:

Alix Hernandez 58
Johan Rodriguez RHP 55
Jose Rengel LHP 47

Best Prospect:

Lisbel Diaz OF, Walker Martin SS, Rayner Arias OF.  

I am calling it a tie for Best Prospect at the level.  Diaz was not previously a heralded prospect but he batted .312 in the DSL last season and played this whole season at age 18.  He got off to a slow start after a late season promotion to San Jose but finished the season strong.  He's a lean, athletic looking player with room to fill out and already mashes the ball with regularity with a high percentage of XBH's.  Martin was the Giants second round draft pick in 2023 and did not play last season.  He struggled to hit for average but showed athleticism with flashes of power.  Look for a breakout in 2025.  Arias' season ended early again after mixed results.  He has a huge ceiling but the injuries are starting to get worrisome.  He needs a healthy season in 2025.

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Giants Organizational Depth Charts: Catcher

 Several years ago a reader/commenter suggested reviewing depth charts for each position in the Giants organization.  That seemed like good idea. As it turned out, they have become a great way of identifying organizational needs both on the MLB roster and the farm system.  So, let's get into it starting with the Catcher position:

MLB:

Patrick Bailey:  .234/.298/.339, 8 HR, 4 SB, 8.7 BB%, 22.3 K%, Off= -9.7, Def= 36.7, fWAR= 4.3.
Tom Murphy: .118/211/.235, HR, 10.5 BB%, 36.8 K%, 38 PA
Blake Sabol:  MLB- .313/.421/.375, 13.2 BB%, 23.7 K%, 38 PA.  AAA- .246/.340/.388, 11 HR, 11 SB, 11.9 BB%, 23.7 K%, 403 PA.

As a future HOF catcher, we might think Buster Posey has some strong opinions about the catcher position.  He had some interesting things to say about Bailey which I would interpret as a less than wholehearted endorsement.  He acknowledged that we can now measure catcher defense and acknowledged that Bailey brings value on defense but he also made it clear he is looking for more offense from the position and pointed out Bailey's second half offensive collapses as something he needs to find a way to avoid.  In Bailey's defense, his offense was dragged down by a horrific .083 BA in August and he bounced back to .266 in Sept after a trip to the IL with an oblique strain which makes me think he may have been trying to play through in injury.  Maybe part of keeping Bailey strong through the season is for Buster to find a better back up catcher so Bailey can take some time off when he needs to?

Which brings us to Murphy and SabolMurphy was terrible both offensively and defensively in an extremely small sample to begin the year then went out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.  Was he already hurt when the season started?  He's signed for another season but can the Giants count on him to be adequate as a back up catcher?  Buster has another decision to make about Blake Sabol:  Is he a catcher or not?  Can he play defense at any position?  Is the bat good enough if he has to play LF or DH?  

In summary, one of Buster's offseason goals needs to be upgrading the back up catcher role.

AAA

Brett Auerbach:  AA:  .215/.311/.398, 4 SB.  AAA:  .281/.357/.444, 4 3B, 4 HR, 5 SB.  

Only played catcher in 7 games at both levels  combined so really more of a super-utility guy than catcher.  Never was able to hit a lick at AA but bat came alive in Sacramento.  There may be some team out there that really wants a 26'th man who can be slightly more than an emergency catcher.

AA

Zach Morgan:  A+:  .206/.328/.302, 3 HR, 5 SB, 239 PA.  AA:  .226/.293/.333, 2 HR, 3 SB, 93 PA.
Adrian Sugastey:  .210/.241/.304, HR, 191 PA.
Andy Thomas:  .225/.313/.312, 5 HR, 4 SB, 432 PA.  

Rough year for catchers in Richmond.  Sugastey is still just 21 yo but lost a season in 2020 so is Rule 5 eligible.  Close to zero chance he'll be selected.  

A+

Onil Perez:  .236/.334/.303, HR, 20 SB, 250 PA.
Jack Payton:  ACL:  .361/.477/.500, 70 PA.
Luke Shliger:  A:  .228/.395/.312, HR, 10 SB, 276 PA.  A+:  .279/.362/.443, 2 HR, 70 PA.

Disappointing A+ season for Perez but SB's remain intriguing.  Too early to give up on 2023 draft picks Payton and Shliger but so far not much exciting in their stat lines.

A:

Drew Cavanaugh:  A:  .230/.364/.333, 2 HR, 154 PA.  AAA:  .300/.400/.300, 35 PA.
Ty Hanchey:  ACL:  .346/.486/.731, 3 HR, 35 PA.  A:  .254/.356/.354, 3 HR, 222 PA.
Juan Perez:  ACL:  .284/.368/.330, 125 PA.  A:  .100/.250/.100, 12 PA.

Drew Cavanaugh is getting a chance for more higher level PA's in the AFL.  Perez might be the prospect to watch here as he got a 7-figure signing bonus in 2022.  His career started slowly but he's 20 yo and still has two years before Rule 5 eligibility.  

ACL:

Nomar Diaz- .250/.406/.458, HR, 32 PA.

Diaz was drafted out of Puerto Rico in 2022 round 14.  Has not played much in 3 pro seasons.

DSL:

Yohendry Sanchez(17 YO):  .241/.489/.448, HR, 45 PA.
Jesus Alexander:  .381/.437/.597, 5 HR, 197 PA.
Santiago Camacho(17 yo):  .361/.507/.549, 2 HR, 3 SB, 138 PA.
Anyelo Gonzalez:  .193/.308/.261, 108 PA.
Alessandro Duran:  .308/.444/.354, 83 PA.
Fernando Pena(17 yo):  .233/.421/.256, 57 PA
Jorge Ramirez:  .300/.424/.400, HR, 85 PA.

Sanchez got a 7-figure signing bonus.  Will watch for him in next season's boxscores.  Alexander had a breakout season at the plate but mostly played 1B.  Camacho is less heralded than Sanchez but is a switch-hitter and put up an interesting stat line.

Summary:  I was bullish on the Giants organizational catching situation at this time last season.  Unfortunately with the loss of Joey Bart and regressions from several prospects the outlook is less bright now.  Maybe 2025 will bring a positive regression?  Buster Posey needs to put backup catcher near the top of his offseason to-do list.

Monday, October 7, 2024

Arizona Fall League Preview

The Arizona Fall League kicks off today.  When I first started seriously following minor league baseball the Arizona Fall League seemed like a prospect hound nirvana.  It was supposed to be a showcase for the top prospects from each organization from AA and AAA.  It as like a whole 2 months of Futures Games.  Over the years it's lost its luster IMO as teams now seem to use it as a tool for prospects who need more PA's or more IP for whatever reason, often players who lost time during the season due to injury.  It looks like more of the same this year with one big exception:  The Giants are sending their consensus top prospect, Bryce Eldridge.  Yes, he is still young and his rise through system possibly too fast, but if he shows well in the AFL it could move his timetable up to early next season.  Here's the list:

Drew Cavanaugh C.  DOB:  1/27/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 220 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 17.

2024 A:  .230/.364/.333, 2 HR, 154 PA.
2024 AAA:  .300/400/.300, 35 PA.

Might already be an organizational player who fills in wherever needed.  Maybe a good showing in the AFL would elevate him above that?

Bryce Eldridge 1B.   DOB:  10/20/2024.  B-L, T-R.  6'7", 223 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 1.

2024 A:  .263/.323/.478, 10 HR, 2 SB, 229 PA.  
2024 A+:  .335/.442/.618, 12 HR, 3 SB, 215 PA.
2024 AA:  .270/.325/.459, HR, SB, 40 PA.
2024 AAA:  .258/.343/.258, 35 PA.

Whirlwind season for Eldridge.  Reminds me a bit of Brandon Belt's 2010 season.  Then they rushed him in 2011 and he wasn't quite ready.  Hope they let Eldridge back up that success and make sure his feet are on the ground then bring him up to stay when he's fully ready.  I am sure all eyes will be on him in the AFL as one of their marquee players this year.

Charlie Szykowny IF.  DOB:  6/30/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'4", 225 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 9.

2024 A:  .340/.405/.505, 6 3B, 2 HR, 242 PA.
2024 A+: .235/.300/.379, 4 HR, 4 SB, 170 PA.  

Listed as a SS but played mostly corner IF.  Stayed in SJ a long time despite dominating the level.  AFL will give him more advanced level PA's.

Bo Davidson OF.  DOB:  7/5/2002.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 205 lbs.  Undrafted Free Agent 2023.

2024 ACL:  .323/.432/.581, 2 HR, SB, 37 PA.
2024 A:  .328/.438/.608, 7 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 226 PA.  

5-tool player who needs PA's at higher levels.

Cale Lansville RHP.  DOB:  1/6/2003.  6' 1", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 14.

2024 A:  3-4, 4.36, 74.1 IP, 22 BB, 69 K.  

Solid 3 pitch mix.  FB sat at 92 MPH in the game I saw him pitch.  Does he have enough velocity to pitch at higher levels?

Wiliam Kempner RHP.  DOB:  6/18/2001.  6' 0", 222 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 3

2023 A:  1-3, 4.67, 27 IP, 15 BB, 29 K.  
2023 A+:  3-2, 2.91, 34 IP, 13 BB, 47 K.
2024:  DNP

 Needs IP after apparently losing a season to injury.

Marques Johnson RHP.  DOB:  7/4/2000.  6' 2", 210 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 11(Red Sox).

2024 ACL:  0-0, 0.00, 1 IP, 0 BB, 2 K. 
2024 A:  1-0, 2.84, 6.1 IP, 8 BB, 10 K's.  

Acquired in 2023 in a trade with the Red Sox for Mauricio Llovera RHP, memba him?  Obviously needs IP.

Elijah Pleasants RHP.  DOB:  5/14/2000.  6'5", 200 lbs.  Signed as a free agent out of indy ball 2024.

2024 ACL:  2-2, 4.87, 20.1 IP, 14 BB, 18 K.
2024 A:  0-0, 2.33, 27 IP, 18 BB, 23 K.

I got to see him pitch in person in Rancho Cucamonga.  What a revelation!  Long lean frame with incredibly long loose limbs.  FB sat 95 MPH with a sharp slider.  Needs IP and needs to cut down on walks.  

Tyler Vogel RHP.  DOB:  11/16/2000.  6' 0", 175 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 12.

2024 ACL:  1-0, 0.00, 4.2 IP, 3 BB, 7 K's.
2024 A+:  3-1, 4.74, 24.2 IP, 12 BB, 22 K's.

Reliever track. Missed some time due to injury so will make up innings in the AFL.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Minor League Season Reviews: DSL

The Giants fielded two DSL teams neither of which made the postseason although the Black team had strong W-L record.  What as exciting about this DSL season was the large number of players signed in 2024 who performed like true prospects and likely well enough to earn a promotion to the ACL next season.  The young performers were mostly from the positional side while most of the top pitching performers were older prospects.  Let's break it down(we will limit the lists to first year players with at least 100 PA's):  

BA:  

.363 Santiago Camacho C.
.300 Oliver Tejada OF
.290 Evan Estevez(16 yo) OF
.279 Anthony Marquez IF
.275 Jhonny Level SS

HR:

10 Jhonny Level
Oliver Tejada
2  Santiago Camacho
Evan Estevez

Triples: 

3 Oliver Tejada
2 Juan Colorado
2 Evan Estevez
2 Anthony Marquez

Doubles:

12 Albert Jimenez
11 Santiago Camacho
11 Jhonny Level
11 Oliver Tejada

SB:  

18 Jhonny Level
13 Oliver Tejada
10 Anthony Marquez
Evan Estevez.

Also worth mentioning is Jesus Alexander C/1B who broke out in his second DSL season at age 18 with a .381 BA.  We should see his name in the ACL boxscores next season.  Also Yohendry Sanchez was a bonus baby catcher who only got 45 PA and hit for just .241 but with as many walks as K's.  

On the pitching side the top performers were older prospects which may not be a big a factor for pitchers but still tends to devalue their performance at this level:

Ricardo Estrada LHP(22):  5-0, 1.22, 44.1 IP, 14 BB, 53 K.
Marlon Franco RHP(21):  3-1, 1.65, 49.0 IP, 5 BB, 46 K.
Brayan Narvaez RHP(19):  3-0, 3.92, 43.2 IP, 10 BB, 45 K.

Best first year performer was Argenis Cayama RHP, 6/1", 180 lbs:  0-1, 2.59, 24.1 IP, 9 BB, 29 K.

Top prospect is Jhonny Level by a pretty big margin.  We should see his name in the ACL boxscores next season and will eagerly look for them.

Friday, October 4, 2024

Thoughts On Farhan Zaidi and Buster Posey

 Hey team!  I am back and what a breaking story I missed!  I go back a long way in Giants history.  There have been some momentous changes in the front office but this one may be the biggest watershed moment of them all.  Tom Haller, Al Rosen, Brian Sabean, FZ himself.  All were major changes but this is the first time a future Hall of Fame Giants player, one who spent his entire career with the team took to reins of the team and in quite dramatic fashion.  Turns out Baggs had it right and Buster's involvement in the Matt Chapman negotiations was an ominous sign for FZ's future with the team.  While that and other flags made Farhan's firing less than unexpected, the announcement that Buster would be the new POBO came as an almost complete shock.

I already reviewed the pros and cons of FZ's career with the Giants so won't rehash that.  IMO, if you look at the youth of the current roster and the state of the farm system is the organization is better positioned for the future than when FZ took over, but maybe only marginally so and the last 6 years have been a litany of frustrations that apparently extended to ownership who finally had enough.  FZ's 6 year tenure was an experiment on what would happen if an analytics oriented POBO was given free reign to institute and control that approach through every level of the organization.  The results were less than compelling.

So what does Buster Posey bring to the table?  He clearly has a keen baseball mind and the adoration of the fanbase.  When Buster Posey speaks, people listen.  While I am sure he understands analytics and will make use of them he will almost certainly also bring the perspective of a recent player who had to absorb that data and put it into action on the field.  He has a unique perspective on how the analytical approach is perceived by players, what works and what doesn't from their perspective.  It's interesting that his first move as POBO was a rather emphatic reassignment of GM Pete Putila who himself came from another analytics oriented program.  Buster also pointedly emphasized that he will promote prospects like Bryce Eldridge when he thinks they are ready and will not let team needs dictate that timing which could be a shot at Putila's approach as his area of expertise was player development and the rather frantic promotion of prospects started after his arrival.  

It will be interesting to see who Buster brings in to assist him but all indications are he will bring a much more traditional approach to roster building and the types of players he thinks will help the team become the perennial postseason powerhouse it should be.

I am sure we all wish him the greatest success.