Spring Training Game Wrap 2/29/2024: D'Backs 2 Giants 1

Jung Hoo Lee's HR in the third inning accounted for the Giants only run.  A throwing error by Marco Luciano SS led to an unearned run that was the difference in the game.  Key Lines:

Jung Hoo Lee CF- 2 for 3, 2B, HR(1).  BA= .500.  It's early but so far Lee has been everything the Giants and their fans could have dreamed possible.  Unfortunately other than Luis Matos there are not many other bright spots among players who hit baseballs for their roster spot.

Logan Webb RHP- 3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, GO/AO= 7/0.  ERA= 5.40.  It's great to put the ball on the ground but then your fielders have to make the plays.

Tommy Romero RHP- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K.  ERA= 2.25.  Romero had a high walk rate in AAA last year in the Mariners(who else?) organization.  He may be another victim of the tight automated K zone.  He's made two appearances of 2 IP each.  He appears to be competing for a multi-inning relief role.

Ryan Walker RHP, Cody Stashak RHP and Carson Seymour RHP all pitched a scoreless inning each.

Kyle Harrison LHP makes his second spring start tomorrow in Scottsdale facing Adrian Sampson RHP of the Rangers.

*************************************************************************************

The news on Tristan Beck RHP was about as bad as it gets.  Aneurysm in his right upper arm.  Yikes!  From the description of his symptoms, it sounds like the enlarged section of artery pressed on a nerve causing the pain and cold sensation in his hand.  He is now consulting with vascular surgeons at Stanford and weighing his options.  Pitchers have come back from this in the past but it seems likely he won't be able to start throwing again until mid-season at the earliest.

Spring Training Game Wrap 2/27/2023: A's 7 Giants 4

 Home Runs by J. D. Davis and Luis Matos weren't enough to overcome early pitching struggles as the Giants remained winless in spring training games.  Key Lines:

J. D. Davis 3B- 1 for 3, HR(1).  BA= .286.  Davis got the Giants on the board with a solo HR in the second inning.

Luis Matos LF- 1 for 2, HR(1).  BA= .375.   Matos bulked up over the winter to help get some of those warning track flies from last year over the fence.  He's off to a hot start this spring and this one went over the fence for a 3-run HR to narrow the A's lead to 6-4.  Alas, this was the end of the Giants scoring.

Sean Hjelle RHP- 2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 K, GO/AO= 5/0.  ERA= 12.00. Another frustrating line from Hjelle.  He induced 9 groundballs while the A's failed to get a ball into the air.  Unfortunately 4 of those groundballs went for hits with one a 2-run triple.  I am here to tell you, a BABIP of .444 is not sustainable!

Logan Webb RHP makes his second start of the spring tomorrow against the D'Backs at Talking Stick.

Spring Training Game Wrap 2/27/2024: Giants 10 Mariners 10

 The Giants battled the Mariners to tie in another high-scoring game in Scottsdale.  Key Lines:

Jung Hoo Lee- 1 for 3.  In what the Giants hope is a preview of many games to come, Lee led off the Giants first inning with a single, hurried the shortstop into an error allowing Thairo Estrada to reach base then scored from 2B on a single by Lamonte Wade Jr.  

Thairo Estrada 2B- 2 for 3,  BA= .375.

Patrick Bailey C- 1 for 2, HR(1).  BA= .250.  Bailey's HR was a grand slam in the first inning from the left side of the plate.  Bailey hit much better from the left side than the right in the minors but reversed that at the MLB level.  Better offense from the left side by Bailey would go a long way toward making this year's team better than last.

Otto Lopez SS- 1 for 2, BB.  BA= .286.  If the reserve SS role is open to performance-based competition, Otto Lopez has the early lead.

Ismael Munguia RF- 2 for 2.  BA= .750.  Is Munguia a sleeper in the system?

Jordan Hicks RHP- 1.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  Hicks pitched better than the line looks.  He gave up a soft IF single to leadoff hitter Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver followed with a 1-out 2-run HR.  Hicks sat in the upper 90's and hit 100 MPH.

Daulton Jeffries RHP- 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  Seeing as how he has not pitched in a game since 2022, just completing 2 innings has to feel like a huge accomplishment.  Is Jeffries a dark horse for an Opening Day roster spot?  Maybe even the starting rotation?

*************************************************************************************

In another uh-oh moment, Tristan Beck RHP was sent to San Francisco to have his painful hand evaluated.  Knock on wood it's not a serious problem and will improve with anti-inflammatories and a little rest.

Spring Training Game Wrap 2/26/2024: Angels 11 Giants 9

What a difference a day makes!  The Giants followed up a scoreless tie yesterday by losing a slugfest.  Key Lines:

Ismael Munguia PR/CF- 1 for 2, HR(1).   Munguia hit a 2-run HR in the 6'th inning to give the Giants 9-7 lead which they gave away in the top of the 7'th.  Is Munguia a sleeper in the system?

Jorge Soler DH- 2 for 2.  Soler singled twice in his preseason debut.  The hits were a sharp grounder up the middle and a looper that he was off-balance and reaching for but used his strength to muscle it over SS.  

Cooper Hummel PR/DH- 2 for 2, 2B.  BA= .667.  Giants DH's went 4 for 4.  Hot Stove League acquisition who is listed as a C but played more games at 1B and RF last season in the Mariners organization.  He is a switch-hitter giving him near max versatility.

Tyler Fitzgerald SS- 1 for 3, HR(1).  BA= .250.  Fitz hit a grand slam HR in the 5'th inning to tie the game at 7.

Joey Bart C- 2 for 2.  BA- .667.  Bart is off to a hot start at the plate.  Should note the Angels stole 5 bases on the afternoon.  3 off Bart and 2 off Sabol.  The SB's were off 5 different pitchers.  Something to keep an eye on.

Wade Meckler CF- 1 for 3, 3B.  BA= .143.  The Triple went to  CF so he must have put a charge into it.  

Mason Black RHP- 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 0 K, GO/AO= 3/2.  Not a great line until you look at some others from the day.  We'll call it rookie jitters since he came back with a scoreless second inning.

Ethan Small LHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  Dominant appearance for the lefty competing for a lefty reliever roster spot.

Trevor McDonald RHP- 0 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 0 K.  We'll call this one rookie jitters too.  Remember McDonald has not pitched above A+ ball.

Camilo Doval RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  Spring debut for the Giants Closer.

************************************************************************************

The Giants signed Nick Ahmed SS to a minor league deal.  Ahmed has struggled with injuries and a weak bat for several years now but is still a plus defender at SS per Fangraphs.  Is he a better option for a reserve MI role than Tyler Fitzgerald, just to name one?

The Brandon Crawford era is officially over in San Francisco and what an era!  Crawford is by far the best Giants SS in my memory and I go back to 1965.  He might be the best in franchise history.  Starting SS for two World Series winners.  Signed with the Cardinals today.  Wish him the best but it will be a bit tough to see him wearing another uniform.

Reggie Crawford LHP and Thomas Szapucki LHP were reassigned to minor league camp.  Neither are expected to make the Giants Opening Day roster.

Spring Training Game Wrap 2/25/2024: Giants 0 Rangers 0

There's an old early spring training cliche, "the pitchers are ahead of the hitters".  That narrative was on display in full force out in Surprise, AZ today as a combined 15 pitchers for both teams allowed zero runs in the game.  Of course, the Giants pitchers have been ahead of their hitters for going on 3 years now.  Key Lines:  

Tyler Fitzgerald SS- 0 for 2, 2 BB, SB(1).   I guess I should have included Austin Slater's two walks from yesterday.  Fitz drew 2 walks and stole 3B in this one. 

Luis Matos CF- 1 for 2, 2B.  BA= .500.  Matos singled in yesterday's game and doubled on a line drive to left in this one so he is off to the best start among Giants hitters.

Kyle Harrison LHP- 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K.  Dominant first spring appearance for Harrison.  Tom Murphy C raved about the FB saying he could have used it exclusively and gotten the same results.

Tyler Rogers RHP, Ryan Walker RHP, Cody Stashak RHP, Juan Sanchez LHP, Randy Rodriguez RHP, Jose Cruz RHP and Spencer Bivens RHP pitched 1 scoreless inning each.  Sanchez recorded 2 K's. 

Mason Black RHP takes the mound to start tomorrow's game in Scottsdale against the Angels.

Keaton Winn RHP is cleared to start throwing.

Spring Training Game Wrap: Cubs 8 Giants 4

It was a hard to find bright spots as the Giants scored 4 runs in the 9'th inning to make the game appear closer than it was.  Key Lines:

Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B- 1 for 2.  FZ seems to see something in Tsutsugo but the 1B/DH demographic is crowded including a certain Giants legend who is in the Best Shape of His Life.

Otto Lopez SS- 1 for 2, HR(1).   Nice to see what he actually looks like.  He's never hit more than 5 HR's in a season but he sure teed off on one to drive in 3 runs in the 9'th and looked jacked.

Logan Webb- 2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 2 K.  Webb looked like Webb in the first inning.  Comebacker GIDP then ending the inning with a K.  Second frame didn't go as well.  

Hayden Birdsong- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  Best and most exciting performance of the day from any player.  Electric might be too strong a word, but he looked really sharp.  

*************************************************************************************

Lots of nagging injuries but spring training is way too long anyway.  

Jung Hoo Lee has a sore side and Marco Luciano has what sounds like a mild hammy.  Both are expected to start playing in games next week.

Spring Training Update: Burning Questions

 Spring training is for players, especially pitchers, to get ready for the season.  It's also at time to settle questions about the roster and team roles.  Nevermind that spring training is a small sample in an atypical environment but yeah, it seems roster decisions are still made based on spring performance.  With that in mind, here are some burning questions for FZ and Bob Melvin to answer by Opening Day:

Will the Giants make a significant roster addition by Opening Day?  This is the 800 lb gorilla, the elephant in the room which carries over from a very strange Hot Stove League season.  The Giants clearly need to add a reliable veteran SP.  It's so clear to everybody you have to think FZ and Melvin are either in extreme denial or playing possum trying to drive someone's price down.

Is Keaton Winn's elbow soreness serious?  Going into spring training, Winn was penciled in as at least the #4 SP on most Giants depth charts.  He's already been shut down with elbow soreness.  Recall Winn has already had TJ surgery and missed time last season with a sore elbow.  

Will Austin Slater and Mike Yastrzemski be healthy by Opening Day?  Slater also has a sore elbow and is on a throwing program.  YtY has a sore shoulder and is also on a throwing program.  Corollary:  Is there an opening for Luis Matos to show off his newly acquired muscle and have a breakout season?  Matos had promising secondary stats last season and barreled up quite a few balls that died on the warning track.  He's reportedly bulked up with about 10 added pounds of muscle.  Is that enough to send those balls over the fence?  If it is, we may have an emerging star.

Who is the reserve middle infielder?  Otto Lopez seems more like a Churn candidate.  Tyler Fitzgerald and Casey Schmitt also have MI experience.  There is also....ahem.....Brett Wisely and Donovan Walton.  BTW, Tim Anderson just signed with the Marlins for $5 M.  

What will become of Joey Bart?  Bart is out of options and appears to be blocked at the Giants MLB level.  I still think there is a non-zero chance he starts the season on the active roster.  Will Patrick Bailey's struggles to hit and wild throws from the second half of last season carry over into spring games?  Will Tom Murphy stay healthy all spring?  

What are your burning questions for the Giants spring training?

Spring Training Update: No 2-Ways; He's Baaack!

Not much to note from spring training yet but a few tidbits worth noting:

Reggie Crawford and Bryce Eldridge are both pumping the brakes on the 2-way thing.  Crawford will still take batting practice in the batting cages but will only pitch in games with a focus on starting.  Eldridge will only hit and play 1B.  Only slight surprise here is Eldridge moving from RF to 1B but 1B was his HS position. 

At age 37, Pablo Sandoval is in the Best Shape of His Life and is in camp trying to win a roster spot.  Barring injury, not sure if there's room on the roster for a guy who is limited to corner IF and DH.

More worrisome news on the pitching front as Keaton Winn RHP experienced elbow soreness after a bullpen session and will be shut down.  MRI came back with no structural damage but you may recall Winn is a TJ survivor and was shut down for awhile last year with elbow soreness. 

Hot Stove League Wrap

Were it not for the '22-'23 Hot Stove League season, I would rate the '23-'24 edition the oddest one of all time and it might be anyway.  We didn't have any last minute shocks like the infamous "Arson Judge" tweet or failed physicals minutes before the big press conference but here we are with spring training camps in full swing and four of the biggest name and biggest predicted contracts remaining unsigned.  It's a bit hard to give out Hot Stove League grades when it might not be actually over.  On the other hand, this is starting to feel like it could drag on past the start of the regular season  and we have to close it out some time.  Well, maybe we don't have to, but then what else would we write about during the spring training "silly season" when most of the stories are about how some player has cleared their head and come to camp with a renewed enthusiasm or they found a new workout regimen and are in the "best shape of their life?"  

Another factor making final grades hard to assign is the dominance of the Dodgers signings which pretty much obliterated any other Hot Stove news and made any other signings seem lilliputian in comparison.  Also, the massive, even ridiculous, dollar numbers put up by the Dodgers caused many Giants fans to start thinking of the Hot Stove League solely in terms of money spent than players acquired or team needs addressed.  Sorry to say, Giants fans, but if that is how you are going to look at it, you might as well switch sides and be Dodger fans because the Giants are never going to come close to those money numbers nor should they.  Of course, Giants management deserves some blame for the money obsession as they created the expectation they were almost certain to sign one of those gargantuan contracts with, well, with somebody which was an unrealistic expectation from the very beginning.

Having said that, let's break it down into what players they actually acquired and find a letter grade to give it all:

Departing Free Agents:  Scott Alexander LHP, Roberto Perez C, Alex Wood LHP, Jakob Junis RHP, Brandon Crawford SS, Joc Pederson DH/OF, John Brebbia RHP, Sean Manaea LHP.

Most of these are frankly addition by subtraction but the pitching half of the roster would look a bit better with Manaea and Junis and both signed contracts the Giants could easily afford on top of their other moves.

12/13/2023:  Giants sign Jung Hoo Lee CF to a 6-yr/$113 M contract.  Lee has a player option for the last 2yr/$41 M of the contract.  Lee has been the top player in South Korea for several years and is the son of a Korean superstar player.  He is a classic CF/speed/leadoff hitter who should provide much-needed upgrades in CF defense and more classic leadoff skills than last year's leadoff hitter, LaMonte Wade Jr who should also be valuable in a lower lineup position.  Lee is just 25 years old so even if he opts out, the Giants should have his services for the peak 4 years of his career.  The Giants overpayed market projections for Lee but this market produced some jaw-dropping contracts so everything is relative.  I consider it a solid, even exciting signing.  He potentially gives the Giants a dimension they have lacked for a long time.

12/23/2023:  Giants sign Tom Murphy C to a 2 yr/8.25 M contract with a $4 M club option for 2026.  What?  A club option?  What a concept!  Murphy was already a Forever Giant after being claimed off waivers on March 25, 2019 then DFA'd 3 days later when he failed to make the Opening Day roster and was traded the next day to the Mariners for someone named Jesus Osoria.  I've been in love with Murphy's bat for a long time and I hated to see him not stick with the Giants in 2019.  He is a ferocious hitter with light-tower power whose defensive reputation has been overshadowed by the offense but he is at least an average defender behind the plate to boot.  His achilles heel has been injuries which have severely curtailed his PA's but none of them seem to be the type that turns into chronic disabilities.  One of my Bold Predictions for the 2024 season is Murphy getting the most innings behind the plate and hitting at least 20 HR's.  Has a chance to be a tremendous under-the-radar move by FZ.

1/5/2024:  Giants trade Mitch Haniger RF and Anthony DeSclafani RHP and cash to the Mariners for Robbie Ray LHP.  This would be a great trade for FZ without anything in return just with the addition by subtraction.  Maybe Mitch Haniger has a good season or two left in him but he just has not been able to stay healthy and did not look good last season when he did play.  DeSclafani has also been beset by injuries and has not contributed since 2021.  Getting Ray in return creates the potential for a second-half boost to the rotation after he rehabs from TJ surgery.  Ray has an opt out after this season.  If he exercises it, it means the Giants probably got a great 3 months out of him. If not, he will be another offseason removed from TJ surgery and signed for 2 more seasons.  The only major downside is it still leaves a hole in the rotation to start the 2024 season.

1/18/2024:  Giants sign Jordan Hicks RHP to a 4 yr/$44 M free agent contract.  Hicks is best known for a FB that consistently sits above 100 MPH and has been a successful reliever/Closer.  He wants to be a SP and that's what the Giants signed him to be.  If he makes a successful transition to SP, this contract will be a bargain.  The downside is he goes back to being an effective reliever with just a slightly rich reliever price tag.  Love the out-of-box thinking here.  Relatively low risk move with tremendous upside.

2/2/2024:  Giants traded Ross Stripling to the A's for Jonah Cox OF.  Another addition by subtraction move but it feels like they need to use the saved salary and roster space on another SP upgrade for this move to make sense as Stripling only has one year left on his contract.

2/13/2024:  Giants acquired Otto Lopez SS from the Blue Jays for cash.   Light-hitting utility IF/OF who can play SS.  Giants needed a reserve MI who could be a backup plan for Marco Luciano at SS but is Lopez an upgrade over Brett Wisely, Tyler Fitzgerald or Casey Schmitt?  Feels more like a Churn move.

218/2024:  Giants sign Jorge Soler DH/OF to a 3 yr/42 M contract.   Soler replaces and upgrades Joc Pederson from last year's DH.  Joc was a platoon hitter whereas Soler is expected to be in the lineup against all pitchers.  You could also say he replaces Mitch Haniger who was traded back to the Mariners.  As we mentioned, Haniger might have a good season or two left in him but he sure didn't look like it last year and Soler represents a significant upgrade on Haniger's production at the plate while clearing out roster space on the defensive OF side.  Like Haniger, Soler's biggest challenge has been staying healthy but he seems healthier now.  Love the move.  

The Giants also acquired high variance lefty relievers Amir Garrett and Ethan Small to compete with Erik Miller for an Opening Day roster spot.

When looked at as individual moves, there are things to really like about them.  Several positions are upgraded and add dimensions the Giants lacked the last two seasons.  On the other hand, I believe I and several other analysts identified frontline/ace pitcher as the team's biggest Hot Stove League need which is why Yamamoto going to the Dodgers was such a huge disappointment.  He seemed like the perfect fit and the type of free agent worthy of a huge contract.  Just maybe not THAT huge?  While Hicks and Ray are nice under-the-radar/outside-the-box moves, they really don't fill that need.

With that in mind, I am going to give this Giants Hot Stove League a C grade with an opportunity to upgrade to a B if FZ can sign at least one pitcher in the Ryu/Lorenzen/Clevinger tier and an A if he can somehow find a way to sign Blake Snell.  Keep in mind, though, that Hot Stove League championships do not always translate into MLB championships.  In fact, they usually don't.

Jakob Junis Was A Good Giant

Among multiple departures of last year's forgettable and regrettable Giants roster was one that probably should have received more attention, Jakob Junis RHP signing a 1 year/$7 M free agent contract with the Brewers.  Junis signed with the Giants for the 2022 season for $1.75 M and then avoided arbitration for the 2023 season with a 1 year/$2.8 M contract.  Both those seasons were bargains for the Giants.  Junis is tailor made for ex-manager Gabe Kapler's mix and match, role-less concept of managing a pitching staff and as far as I know, did it without complaining.    Let's look at the stat lines:

Jakob Junis RHP.  DOB:  9/16/1992. 6'3", 2020 lbs.  

2022:  5-7, 4.42, 112 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 23 G, 17 Starts, FIP 3.65, xFIP 3.67.  fWAR= 1.3.  

2023:  4-3, 3.87, 86 IP, 10.05 K/9, 2.20 BB/9, 40 G, 4 Starts, 1 Save, FIP 3.79, xFIP 3.66, fWAR= 0.7.  

The higher ERA in 2022 was likely due to fatigue from overuse in a starting role after just 64.2 IP combined in 2020 and 2021.  His improved K/9 in 2023 likely due shifting more pitches to the slider(52.4% to 62.5%).

The Brewers reportedly signed him to be a SP and it is defensible for the Giants to let him go for close to market value(although this Hot Stove League season almost certainly inflated the pitching market).  I am not sure he really has a SP repertoire of pitches.  I think he is most valuable in swing-man/long relief role exactly how Kap used him the last two seasons.  No matter who is manager or what his role is, though, those innings are going to be a challenge to replace.

Best wishes to Jakob Junis.  He was a good Giant.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #1 Kyle Harrison

1.  Kyle Harrison LHP.  DOB:  8/12/2002.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2023(AAA):  1-3, 4.66, 65.2 IP, 14.39 K/9, 6.58 BB/9.

2023(MLB):  1-1, 4.15, 34.2 IP, 9.09 K/9, 2.86 BB/9.

Kyle Harrison repeats as the # 1 prospect in the Giants system.  He caused some worries with a high walk rate in  AAA but reports said he was struggling with what seems like a ridiculously tight automated strike zone.  Sure enough, the walk rate went way down in MLB, albeit in a small sample.  When he is on, he has an electric FB and a wipeout slider and really doesn't need any other pitches.  In the long run, he probably needs to keep developing the changeup if he wants to be a top-shelf MLB SP but the other two pitches are good enough he can probably develop the change at the MLB level.  

As things stand right now he might be the #2 non-injured SP on the roster going into spring training although it's still possible the Giants add a frontline veteran SP before Opening Day.  His MLB debut last season is very comparable to Cainer, Timmy and Bum so here's hoping for good health and a breakout season from the next in a long line of homegrown ace pitchers.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #2 Marco Luciano

2.  Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.  2 Options.

2023(AA):  ,263/.339/.459, 11 HR, 6 SB, 14.9 BB%, 29.8 K%, 242 PA.

2023(AAA):  .228/.339/.450, 4 HR, 12.8 BB%, 35.9 K%, 78 PA.

2023(MLB):  .231/.333/208, 13.3 BB%, 37.8 K%, 45 PA, EV= 93.0, maxEV= 111.8, 54.5 Hard Hit%.

After missing much of 2022 and winter ball with a bad back, Luciano stayed mostly healthy after a late start on the season which was task #1.  He's been a top Giants prospect for several years now, so much so that it's hard to believe he played his first MLB game at age 21 and won't turn 23 until near the end of his rookie season.  Speaking of which, barring an unexpected development between now and Opening Day, Luciano will be the Giants starting SS.  

Luciano's biggest weakness in 2023 was a sky-high K rate.  This was partially offset by a high walk rate.  When he did make contact, it was mostly hard contact. For comparison's sake, Luis Matos' EV was about 87 and his hard hit rate was about 31%, max EV of 108.4.  The just-signed Jorge Soler, who is known for hitting the ball hard, had an EV of 91.3 and a 46 Hard Hit%, 114.8 max EV.  If there were better options on the FA or trade markets I would say let him get a bit more salt in AAA but Luciano's mean projection is as good or better than any available alternatives and his ceiling is far higher.  If things don't work out, he can go down with Tyler Fitzgerald or Casey Schmitt as depth option and I do expect the Giants to add some sort of backup MI by Opening Day.

Hot Stove Update: Giants In Agreement with Soler

 Giants beat writer Susan Slusser broke the news that they reached an agreement to sign DH/OF Jorge Soler to a 3 year contract.  Terms of the agreement are not yet known but the Giants were reportedly in talks with Soler for over 1 week but were balking at the third guaranteed year.  

Soler is a veteran power hitter of the type the Giants sorely lacked for the past several years.  He hit 36 HR's for the Marlins last year and 48 for the Royals in 2019.  He's averaged 27 HR/162 games over his career but is oft injured with only three seasons above 500 PA's.  He also tends to be streaky within healthy seasons but can carry a team for weeks when hot at the plate.  His K rate ranges from 25-35% but he has also maintained a walk rate above 10% his entire career.  Early in his career he hit the ball incredibly hard but not always with enough loft to get it out of the park.  Obviously he must have addressed that if he hit 48 in one season.  Neither the Royals ballpark nor the Marlins are particularly hitter-friendly and Oracle Park has more carry to LF than R so we probably don't have to discount his historical stats for the ballpark.

Dedicated DH was one of the Giants Hot Stove League needs.  I thought a LH DH would be a better fit, but Soler hit 22 of his 36 HR against RHP's last year and he certainly mashes lefties so it seems like he gives the Giants the best of both worlds if they can just pencil his name in the lineup at DH for 162 games.  Manager Bob Melvin is more likely to do just that than his predecessor.  

Soler turns 32 yo in less than 1 month so the Giants are buying his age 32-34 seasons.

Jorge Soler DH/OF.  DOB:  2/25/1992.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 235 lbs.

2023(overall):  .250/.341/.512, 36 HR, 11.4 BB%, 24.3 K%, 580 PA.

2023(vs LHP):  .277, 14 HR, 135 PA.  

2023(vs RHP):  .242, 22 HR, 445 PA.  

Jorge Soler is a welcome addition to the Giants.  Fingers crossed he stays healthy for the next 3 seasons.

*************************************************************************************

The Giants appear to be setting up an audition for a lefty reliever roster spot in spring training.  They signed Amir Garrett LHP to a minor league deal with a $1.3 M guarantee if he makes the Opening Day roster.  They also traded cash for Ethan Small LHP.  Both pitchers have strong K rates but also struggle with too many walks.  They will compete with Erik Miller LHP who has a similar profile for a lefty reliever role.  

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #3 Bryce Eldridge

3.  Bryce Eldridge OF/RHP.  DOB:  10/20/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6' 7", 223 lbs. 

2023(ACL):  .294/.393/.647, 5 HR, 14.8 BB%, 26.2 K%, 61 PA.

2023(A):  .293/.406/.379, HR, 15.9 BB%, 26.1 K%, 69 PA.  

For the second year in a row the Giants drafted a 2-way player in the first round but this time it was a HS player who scouts think is a hitter first compared to Reggie Crawford from 2022 who was coming out of college and most scouts think is a future pitcher.

Perhaps because they felt he already pitched enough last year between his HS season and showcased but Eldridge was limited to hitting in his first pro season and acquitted himself quite well.  He showed impressive plate discipline at two levels while hitting for power.  Well, not so much power in A San Jose but that is an aggressive placement for a HS draftee in their draft year and besides, it as a small sample.

Based on video clips, I am higher on Eldridge's pitching potential than most analysts seem to but but if he continues to hit like he did on 2023, he probably should not waste his time and take the injury risk.

I would think he starts 2023 back in San Jose but again if he continue to hit like last season he won't stay there long.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #4 Walker Martin

4.  Walker Martin SS.  DOB:  2/20/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 188 lbs.  

 Two-sport athlete out of Colorado which is not exactly a hotbed of HS baseball talent.  An eye-opening performance at the Area Code Games in 2022 put him on the scouting radar.  The Giants were known to be in on him pre-draft but analyists were not sure if for the first or second round.  He seemed like a bit of a reach for mi- round 1 but also not likely to stay on the board until mid-round 2 so it was a pleasant surprise to see the Giants land both Eldridge and Walker.  It's not clear to me why we did not see Martin's name in minor league boxscores after the draft.  He'll turn 20 yo in a few days so has come developmental catching up to do.

MLB Draft Tracker gives him 50-55 tools across the board.  Per Fangraphs Martin has a "sweet lefty stroke, a projectable frame and the arm and actions to stay at short."  FG also said in short showcase looks his feel to hit looked "quite undercooked" and concludes by saying he is a "very risky older infield prospect with a gorgeous swing."

I have a feeling the Giants will assign him to extended spring training and the ACL which delays his pro debut event further?  I would like to see him in SJ just because I think he needs to get on the field in pro ball already.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #5 Rayner Arias

5.  Rayner Arias OF.  DOB:  4/29/2006.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 185 lbs.  

2023(DSL):  .414/.539/.793, 4 HR, 4 SB, 19.7 BB%, 14.5 K%, 76 PA. 

Rayner Arias was a 7-figure international bonus baby signed in January 2023.  The Giants conservatively placed him in the DSL and he basically destroyed DSL pitching.  Maybe he would have cooled off after opposing teams got a book on him but it sure looks like he was just way too good for the level.  His season ended early due to a wrist injury which from what I have read is not expected to affect his future performance and he is expected to be ready for the 2024 season where I expect him to be assigned to the ACL after extended spring training but I am hoping the Giants are aggressive with him and place him in A San Jose where I think he would do well and catapult himself into elite prospect rankings.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #6 Keaton Winn

6.  Keaton Winn RHP.  DOB:  2/20/1998.  6' 4", 205 lbs.  

2023(AAA):  0-6, 4.81, 58 IP, 10.24 K/9, 4.03 BB/9.

2023(MLB):  1-3, 4.68, 42.1 IP, 7.44 K/9, 1.70 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.97.

Winn keep his prospect status by sneaking in under the 50 MLB IP limit.  An impressive showing at the MLB level earns him a top 10 prospect status in DrB's list.  He has a devastating two pitch combo of a FB that averaged almost 96 MPH and an off-the-table splitter that goes about 88 MPH.  He has an average slider he doesn't throw often.  He might want to work on improving that pitch and using it more if he wants to remain a SP.  

Projection systems have him improving his ERA slightly in 2024.  Unless FZ adds more than 1 SP, Winn appears to be almost a lock for the Opening Day rotation.  He is a TJ surgery survivor and was shut down for awhile last year due to elbow soreness so his biggest challenge may be to stay healthy.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #7 Mason Black

7.  Mason Black RHP.  DOB:  12/10/1999.  6' 3", 230 lbs.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2024.

2023(AA):  1-5, 3.57, 63 IP, 11.86 K/9, 3.00 BB/9.  

2023(AAA):  3-4, 3.86, 60.2 IP, 10.68 K/9, 4.60 BB/9.

Black has been one of the Giants more consistent pitching prospects since being drafted in the third round in 2021 out of Lehigh.  He doesn't really have an outstanding pitch in his arsenal but his FB/Slider present a pair of plus pitches with above average command.  The changeup lags a bit but can develop into at least an average third pitch.  Fangraphs mideason PV/FV scouting grades:  FB= 50/55, SL= 55/55, CH= 40/50, Command= 45/55, FB sits 92-95 and tops out at 97 MPH.  Again, I guess that's considered average these days.  

What lifted Black up to near the top of Giants pitching prospect rankings for me was his performance in AAA PCL maybe the toughest pitching environments in all of baseball.  No less than Baseball America seems to agree as they named Black the Giants 2023 Minor League Player of the Year.

On video, Black has a strong, muscular lower half which he uses to drop and drive.  He delivers the ball with loose, whippy arm action that makes his FB appear faster than the radar guns seem to record.  

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #8 Carson Whisenhunt

8.  Carson Whisenhunt LHP.  DOB:  10/20/2000.  6'3", 209 lbs.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025.

2023(A):  0-0, 3.29, 13.2 IP, 13.17 K/9, 2.63 BB/9.

2023(A+):  1-0, 1.42, 25.1 IP, 12.79 K/9, 2.84 BB/9.

2023(AA):  0-1, 3.20, 19.2 IP, 12.36 K/9, 5.03 BB/9.  

Giants second round draft pick in 2022, Whisenhunt likely would have been a first round pick had he not been suspended for failed PED test before his college junior season.  Fangraphs rates his PV/FV on his pitches as FB 40/45, CB 40/45, CH 60/70!  Command 50/60.  FB sits 92-94 and tops at 96 which I guess is now pretty average.  The Changeup draws raves and is considered elite.  If he can maintain command of an average FB and curve to go with it he should be at least a mid-back end SP in MLB.  I expect him to start 2024 back in AA but with a solid chance of seeing big league action before the season is done.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #9 Trevor McDonald

9.  Trevor McDonald RHP.  DOB:  2/26/2001.  6'2", 200 lbs.  

2023(A+):  3-1, 0.96, 37.2 IP, 9.32 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, GB/FB= 4.86.  

McDonald was an above-slot HS draft pick in the 11'th round of the 2019 draft.  He quietly moved up in the Giants prospect rankings and earned a 40-man roster add this last December.  Per Fangraphs, he missed much of last season with  AC joint and hammy issues but when he came back he pounded to zone with a sinking mid-90's FB with a cutter, curve and changeup to back it up.  His K rates are average by today's standards but his walk rate is elite and his GB ratio is hyper-elite.  We should see him in the AA Richmond box scores to start 2024.  He needs to stay healthy.

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #10 Kai-Wei Teng

10.  Kai-Wei Teng RHP.  DOB:12/1/1998.  6'4", 260 lbs.  

2023(AA):  1-3, 4.75, 47.1 IP, 12.93 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.31.

2023(AAA):  6-5, 4.22, 79 IP, 10.94 K/9, 5.47 BB/9. GB/FB= 1.21.

Teng is a jumbo size pitcher who quietly had a pretty solid season last year surprisingly improving his ERA(though not his FIP) after a promotion to AAA.  But just the fact that he didn't crater up there is impressive given the natural hitter-friendly environment exacerbated by a notoriously tight automated strike zone.  

Teng has a low-mid 90's FB which, per Roger Munter of There R Giants, occasionally reaches 97 MPH, which he commands well backed by a tight downward slider.  Per Baseball he also has a changeup which projects as above-average.  On video, he shows an easy low-effort delivery which should allow him to work deep into games, a trait the Giants desperately need more of.  Per Baseball America he also has a changeup which projects as above-average.  He was acquired from the Twins in the Sam Dyson trade which at this point looks like it could be a big winner for the Giants as Dyson's career and personal life took a disastrous turn after the trade.  FZ does not like to put prospects on the 40-man roster who still need development time so I am going to take that development as a vote of confidence in Teng and a sign that we could well see him pitching in Oracle Park.  In fact, if the season started tomorrow there is a non-zero chance Teng might be the 5'th starter!

 

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #11 Hayden Birdsong

21.  Hayden Birdsong RHP.  DOB:  8/302001.  6'4", 215 lbs.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2025.

2023(A):  0-0, 2.16, 41.2 IP, 15.12 K/9, 4.75 BB/9.

2023(A+):  2-2, 3.25, 36 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.25 BB/9.

2023(AA):  0-3, 5.48, 23 IP, 12.91 K/9, 5.09 BB/9. 

Young for a college draftee, Birdsong rose through 3 levels in his first full pro season, including an 11 K's in 5 no-hit innings during his stop in A+ Eugene.  Per Fangraphs scouting report he added velocity to his FB after turning pro and now sits in the mid-90's.  He backs that up with a sharp slider/curve combo.  He'll likely need to develop a changeup to remain a SP prospect.  Expect to see him back in AA to start 2024 but with plenty of time for development.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Trade Ross Stripling to the A's

Well, another trade I didn't see coming.  The Giants today traded Ross Stripling RHP to the A's for Jonah Cox OF a minor leaguer drafted just last summer in the 6'th round.  The Giants sent $3.5 M to the A's to cover part of Stripling's $12.5 M salary.  

I am pretty sure this trade feels like addition by subtraction to a lot of Giants fans.  After a shiny 2022 season with the Toronto Blue Jays, Stripling did a face plant last year after signing a 2 year/$25 M contract with the Giants.  His HR/FB rate was a crazy 22.0% which, BTW, was not the highest of his career.  He gave up 20 HR's in just 89 IP.  His performance as so bad he elected to not exercise his opt-out clause even in what promised to be an extreme buyer's market for pitchers.  

Last week we saw some odd articles by Giants beatwriters about how Stripling was working on a new pitch, a "deathball" slider that had a similar feel to those "best shape of his life" stories we read every spring.  You now have to wonder if those beat writers were used by the Giants to write propaganda pieces to gin up trade interest from other teams.  If so, the A's, who seem to be in a total state of chaos, took the bait.

So yes, it definitely seems like this was a great trade for FZ even if the Giants got nothing but a bag of bucket of used balls in return, but they actually got an interesting prospect in return:

Jonah Cox OF.   DOB:  8/4/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6' 3", 200 lbs.  Rule 5 Eligible Dec. 2026.

2023(College- Oral Roberts):  .412/.470/.646, 11 HR, 28 SB, 30 BB, 53 K, 317 PA.  

2023(ACL):  .421/.560/.579, 6 SB, 4 BB, 1 K, 25 PA.

2023(A):  .254/.325/.373, 2 HR, 14 SB, 4.2 BB%, 33.3 K%, 120 PA.  

It's a bit unusual to find a position player of this size who is also this fast.  Cox was a HS and JC shortstop who moved to CF at Oral Roberts and played mainly CF after being drafted by he A's.  He also has some pop in his bat with room for  power development.  He's got 3 more seasons of development before his Rule 5 Draft eligible so time is on his and the Giants side as far as achieving what looks like a fairly high ceiling.

With Stripling and his huge question mark out of the rotation the imperative for FZ to sign another reliable veteran SP seems to be clear.  He could not be seriously thinking of starting the season with Logan Webb as the only established MLB SP in the rotation with Alex Cobb RHP and Robbie Ray LHP at least 2 months away from activation off the IL.  Hey!  Maybe he's passed on all those second line SPs because he's keeping his powder dry for Blake Snell?  

DrB's 2024 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #12 Joe Whitman

12.  Joe Whitman LHP.  DOB:  9/17/2001.  6' 5", 200 lbs.  

2023(College- Kent St):  9-2, 2.56, 81 IP, 29 BB, 100 K.

2023(Cape Cod League):  1-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 0 BB, 9 K.

2023(ACL):  0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 1 BB, 4 K.

2023(A):  1-0, 3.18, 5.2 IP, 2 BB, 9 K.

Whitman was a late riser in the 2023 draft and ended up as the top rated LHP in the draft with some talk of him going in the first round.  The Giants grabbed him with their second round compensatory pick for losing Carlos Rodon to free agency.  Whitman is a big lefty with a low-mid 90's FB but his best pitch is a slider with 2-plane movement.  He adds a developing changeup which he did not throw much in college.  He had a successful pro debut in limited action. I would think we'll see him start 2024 in A+ Eugene, but he has the potential to be a fast riser in the system.