Big day in the Hot Stove League as it was deadline day for players to accept Qualifying Offers and also the deadline to finalize 40-man rosters to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft. The biggest news here is Joc Pederson OF/DH accepting the QO. This is the 3'rd year in a row a Giants player has been offered and accepted a QO after Kevin Gausman RHP for 2021 and Brandon Belt 1B for 2022. Gausman worked out great for the Giants while Belt was a disappointment mostly due to injury.
I don't get why people keep saying this is surprising or an overpay by the Giants. Per Fangraphs, Joc earned $16.4 M in fWAR equivalents last season and that was dragged down by his overexposure on defense due to injuries to other players. Essentially that Giants are saying they think he can do that again and they are willing to pay a $3 M premium to avoid the risk of a multiyear contract, a very reasonable amount and one they can well afford. The Giants are suddenly weaker from the left side of the plate and Joc was the best pure lefthanded bat on the market. So great deal for both the Giants and Joc.
FZ made it pretty clear that Joc's primary role is expected to be DH. In response to the obvious question, he said Tommy La Stella UT will have to play multiple positions next season to have value on the roster which does not sound like a vote of confidence for La Stella being on the Opening Day roster.
It was also Rule 5 Draft Protect day and here is where things took a couple of unexpected turns. The Giants added 6 prospect to their 40-man roster: Marco Luciano SS, Luis Matos OF, Tristan Beck RHP, Jose Cruz RHP Keaton Winn RHP and Brett Wisely 2B.....wait, what? Whotheheck is Brett Wisely? Oh yeah, literally minutes before the roster deadline, the Giants traded Tristan Peters OF to the Rays(who else?) for Wisely which is interesting because Peters and Wisely appear to be similar players and Peters has two more seasons before he is Rule 5 eligible. I don't really have space to get into the details in this post. Maybe we'll do a Wisely vs Peters smackdown in another post?
The trade for Wisely and his addition to the 40-man roster raised eyebrows in another direction because Will Wilson SS, who I think could be drafted, was left off. Also a bit surprising was Keaton Winn being added in favor of Nick Avila RHP who fits the profile of a Rule 5 draftee who actually sticks with the drafting team. And while I think Jose Cruz was also a prime candidate to be drafted, protecting him over Avila, a similar pitcher at a higher level, is interesting.
So the 6 players added plus Joc's signing forced the Giants to DFA 7 players off the 40-man roster, something you knew was coming. Probably the biggest surprise was Jarlin Garcia LHP, so it's safe to say he won't be tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline. Other DFA's were Sam Delaplane RHP, Drew Strotman RHP, Dom Nunez C, Meibrys Viloria C Jason Vosler IF and Colton Welker 3B. The Giants obviously hope other teams also have big time roster crunches and that several of these players sneak through waivers.
Churn on!
The Joc acceptance of a QO is great news. Joc made it clear that he was not happy playing in games where the Giants were out of contention in the last part of the season. I am wondering if the Giant front office assured him that they would go out and get some players that would make the Giants contenders. We shall see what happens next.
ReplyDeleteEveryone seems happy about Pederson's accepting the QO. He obviously didn't have a better offer. In this, his 9th year as a major leaguer, he'll get 2/3's the total $$ he got for the first 8 years and about as much as he's made (total) in his best 3 years.
ReplyDeleteQuoting Baggardly: "The Giants made an offer that financially was too good to refuse."
The rap against Joc has been his performance against LHP, but last year it wasn't bad (at least compared to his teammates), and he was a secret weapon leading off games which he did 16 times, slashing .357/.438/.857/1.295 as the Giants were an amazing 11-5!
Seems like they should have done that more often.
YtY in 19 games leading off, the Giants were 9-10 as he slashed .294/.368/.294/.663.
Wade led off 38 games (record 20-18) as he slashed .177/.263/.353/.616.
OTOH, LaStella led off 21 games slashing .429/.429/.667/1.095, but the Giants were 6-15 which confirms anything can happen in baseball with a small sample size.
Slater led the RHBs leading off 44 times (22-22) and slashed .237/.341/.500/.841. Pederson slashed .254/.364/.556/.919 against LH starters (all AB's, not just leading off) which, in a SSS, suggests he should lead off against lefties, too.
The only negative signing him would be that $20M won't be available to add the players the Giants need to reach the playoffs, but FZ insists that ain't so.
We'll know that in about 4 months.
I couldn't understand why they moved Joc out of the leadoff spot in the lineup. He was terrific there.
DeleteIf LaStella had put up those numbers in the leadoff spot, he'd easily be the opening day leadoff hitter. Alas, I believe your numbers are off. If he did that even in 21 games, he would've had a decent year regardless of how well he did in other games. But LaStella was not good last year in any situation. And most concerning is that he was not 100% yet he still went out and performed badly. I realize almost everyone has to play through some minor aches and pains in a long season, but LaStella's injury seemed pretty extensive, as recent reports have come out. This has to be a failure of the player, coaches, and FO.
DeletePer Baseball Reference, Tommy La Stella went .429/.429/.667 in 21 PA leading off a game. He went .288/.323/441 in 62 PA leading off an inning. .253/.283/.414 in all PA's while batting first in the lineup. He did not do nearly as well batting in other positions in the lineup and this is almost surely a sample size aberration. His big problem was that he could not play in the field and did not have enough pop in his bat to be a DH, which is essentially what FZ said after Joc accepted his QO. Achilles injuries are very tough to come back from. I don't think that is something FZ and the front office could have anticipated whey they signed La Stella.
DeleteJoc isn’t an everyday player and he is streakier than a pair if tidy whiteys. $20 million for him even though its only one year still could potentially handcuff the budget at least for this season. They didn’t sign any big names last season after giving Belt a nice one year deal and spreading the money over some mediocre starting pitchers so FZ could very easily justify his off-season by spending the rest of whatever they have budgeted over 4-5 players on one year or opt outs of course.
ReplyDeleteOne year deals are safe but they also leave you in the same situation next season rolling the dice on someone else if the previous didn’t work out. If they end up worth bringing back like Gausman, Rodon, or Joc, you end up watching them leave or having to overpay them on another one year deal. Not to mention the lack of continuity it must create in a clubhouse which basically tells you how little the Giants front office values chemistry.
There is one other affect these one year deals have on the fans that doesn’t necessarily translate to wins and losses but does take away from the experience. It’s nice to have a star player or two to root for that you know will be on the team next year and beyond. So much of being a fan is looking forward to the next game or the next series or next season. The off-season is exciting when your team shows you they want to win by bringing proven talent at a premium price that will be a fixture in your lineup for years to come.
If the Giants don’t sign at least one star this off-season to a long term deal I think they will become the low market team they are acting like. SF fans didn’t show up last season and probably cost them at least 150 million in revenue compared to sell out seasons 10 years ago. I don’t know a single fan base that would continue to sell out their stadium under these circumstances and I hope Giants ownership realizes that they are losing revenue with every low risk cheap move they make.
Lets see how the rest of the Hot Stove League plays out before we start griping about Joc's contract and FZ's roster building philosophy.
DeleteWe are going on the 5th off-season under this regime. I have been patient and will try to remain optimistic but this is very similar to how past off-seasons have gone at least so far. I think most fans thought they would spend with all the talent on the market last year but they did expensive short term and opt out deals instead.
DeleteThis off-season has started with another one year overpay and if it ends with Haniger, Grienke, and Aledmys Diaz all on expensive one year deals it will be incredibly disappointing. Anything other than Judge at this point will be disappointing to most fans. Trea Turner may move the needle but a one year or opt out deal for Correa or Bogaerts or Swanson isn’t going to cut it.
I know I know I need to wait and see like last year and the year before and trust in the Front Office. They are some of the smartest minds in baseball and are building something bigger than just this off-season. How much rope do they deserve though if they continue to spend a ton of money on one year deals for borderline good players and they don’t make the playoffs next year?
I don't agree that it's Judge or bust. Judge is going to be incredibly expensive and the back end of whatever contract he gets is going to be ugly. I do agree FZ and ownership created insanely high expectations for themselves with the fans by their comments after the season ended.
DeleteI agree the comments from FZ and ownership were questionable because the Giants have a long track record starting from the Sabean era of having trouble attracting the top free agent hitters to sign since Barry Bonds.
DeleteFWIW, Pederson's $19.65M contract is the 3rd largest AAV the Giants have ever given!
ReplyDeleteRodón had the largest at $22M, Cueto the 2nd at $21.67.
It's a very big jump to the $40M that it might take to sign Judge.
LOL, not gonna happen!
The smoke signals say Aaron Judge is not coming to the Giants.
DeleteIt would be fun while it lasted: the Giants would sell out a barrel of home games before the season began and stay with great attendance as long as Judge was Bonds or almost Bonds.
DeleteFrom his 31 yo year like Judge next year, Bonds was Bonds for 9 years with one "weak" year at 34 when he “only” slashed .262/.389/.617/1.006 in 102 games.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, how many 80%-Bonds years can Judge have? If it's 6 of 8 years, maybe 5, he'd be a winner even as a ghost his last years.
And the dollars at the end will be like 3 quarters...
If Judge returns to the Yankees it will certainly be understandable and I'll continue to root for him as a local kid and apparently a great guy.
DeleteAll that will change if he signs with some third team.
Agreed that Judge is probably going to sign with the Yankees again, don't blame him. But if Judge has some interest in playing for the Giants, they owe it to themselves and the fans to make a competitive offer to sign him because of the comments they made after the season. If Judge is not interested then move on to the 4 all star shortstops to find out their interest in playing for the Giants. I'm hoping for Carlos Correa myself.
ReplyDelete