2022-2023 Giants Hot Stove League Preview: QO for Joc?

 The Giants have 5 days to decide whether to offer their players entering free agency a Qualifying Offer.  This year the QO is set at $19.65 M about $1 M higher than last season.  We all know Carlos Rodon will receive a QO and will decline it.  $19.65 M is less than the the contract he opted out of.  Joc Pederson is a more interesting case with arguments in both directions.  He is coming off a really good offensive season in which he mashed RHP's and accumulated 2.1 fWAR which was worth $16.4 M per Fangraphs despite being dragged down by truly terrible defensive metrics.  His Steamer projection for 2023 is 2.0 WAR which Ben Clemons in his Fangraphs chat today notes probably undervalues him because injuries forced the Giants to overexpose his defensive liabilities.  MLBTR does not have their free agent predictions out yet, but Fangraphs Clemons has him listed as their #48 ranked with a projection of 2 yr/$18 M.  MLB.com has the Giants as "could go either way" on a QO and predicts they will work out an extension.

So, here are some arguments pro and con from the Giants perspective:

Pro:  

1.  While it is is a relatively small overpay for his projected production, it's only for 1 year so does not come with the risk of a multi-year contract.  

2.  Other than possibly Brandon Nimmo, Joc is probably the best pure lefthanded hitter on the market and even Nimmo's added value is more due to his defensive ability.  

3.  While Joc would likely accept a QO, if he did not the Giants would receive an added draft pick which FZ values more for the added flexibility the bonus slot gives him than the pick itself, which partially offsets the modest overpay.

Con:

1.  It's an overpay and about the same total value as Fangraphs projected 2 year/deal for the open market.  If the Giants really want him, they can probably sign him on the open market for 2-3 years at far lower AAV.

2.  While the FA market for lefty bats is not great, there may be some short term bargains out there similar to Joc's situation last year.

So, who are some of these lefty bats which may be undervalued alternatives to Joc Pederson?  We already mentioned Nimmo but he's more of a major longterm acquisition than Joc's niche as a left DH bat/emergency OF.  A QO to Joc and going after Nimmo are not mutually exclusive.

Michael Conforto somewhat mysteriously remained unsigned late into last year's Hot Stove League and ultimately revealed he suffered a shoulder injury working out in January which required surgery.  He is Fangraphs #30 FA with a projected 1 yr/$12 M "pillow" contract.  While that could be much more of a bargain than a QO deal for Pederson, let's remember Conforto's 2021 season was not good.  Between that and the injury/surgery, there it much more variance in his projected production than in Joc's.

Joey Gallo has as much power potential as any free agent on the market, Aaron Judge included.  He is coming off a terrible season and will undoubtedly be looking for a "pillow" deal which will likely be for under $10 M.  The upside is he's hit 38 or more HR's in 3 separate seasons.  The negative is he is an extreme 3-true-outcomes guy with a career BA at the Mendoza Line which drags down the rest of his slash line. I could see FZ being eager to take a chance on Gallo's power potential and not be dissuaded by the K rate/low BA. In fact, my bold prediction for the Hot Stove League is the Giants signing Gallo!

If Joc is going to be primarily a LH DH, it may not matter than he can be a statue in the OF.  Brandon Belt could fill the role of lefty DH and would also likely accept a significantly lower 1 year contract.  Belt's downside is he has not been able to stay healthy for a full season, pretty much ever and is coming off season-ending knee surgery so his health/availability is no sure thing and even unlikely even for one season.

Other possible options include Lamonte Wade Jr who is arbitration eligible, which is another decision the Giants need to make, and Luis Gonzalez who got off to a hot start in his rookie season but tailed off badly at the end. Wade Jr and Gonzalez are low expense but also very unlikely to come close to Joc's offensive production.

Conclusion:  The Giants should try to work out an extension with Joc over the next few days but failing that, should offer him a QO.  Worse case scenario is he accepts which is far from disaster.  If he does not, they get a draft pick with added slot bonus pool as compensation.(note the slot bonus does not give them money. It just potentially enables them to draft and sign a better player in next year's draft).