The Arizona Fall League is wrapping up with their championship game today. The Giants assigned several players to the Scottsdale Scorpions who are not one of the finalists so we can take a look at how their prospects fared. The Arizona Fall League was started as a showcase league for top prospects in AA and AAA. The Giants have never seemed enthusiastic about the league and tend to use it more as a place for prospects who missed time due to injury can get extra PA's or IP. Below are the stat lines for Giants AFL participants. Remember it's an extremely small sample and historically unprojectable. For example, Buster Posey played in the AFL once upon a time and had a terrible stat line.
Luis Matos CF- .233/.280/.360, 2 HR, 93 PA. Matos was one of a handful of 20 year olds on the Scorpions team and has not played above A+. He started off hot the struggled. Just getting some extra PA's in.
Logan Wyatt 1B- .306/.500/.347, 17 BB, 7 K, 68 PA. The latest god of walks. Still no power. Missed most of 2022 with injuries.
Adrian Sugastey C- .385/.429/.423, 28 PA. Just turned 20 yo in Oct and never played above low A ball. Don't sleep on him as a prospect.
Andy Thomas C- .182/.372/.212, 10 BB, 8 PA, 43 PA. Midseason trade acquisition with strong K/BB's.
Spencer Bivens RHP- 0-0, 0.87, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 11 K. Older pitcher signed as UDFA out of indy ball.
Tyler Myrick RHP- 0-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 5 BB, 10 K.
Carson Whisenhunt LHP- 0-1, 2.84, 6.1 IP, 3 BB, 11 K. A couple of impressive starts for the Giants 2022 second round draft pick. Changeup is reportedly MLB quality now. Should be a fast mover through the farm system.
Hunter Dula RHP- 0-0, 4.82, 9.1 IP, 6 BB, 10 K.
Will Bednar RHP- 0-0, 16.20, 3.1 IP, 2 BB, 3 K's. First round pick from 2021 continues to struggle.
Is Bednar's problem primarily control – too many walks? Can that work it's way out, maybe developing a pitch he can control? He does get beaucoup K's so he's not easy to hit. Usually.
ReplyDeleteHe has had some good outings...
I think he's lost a tick or two off the FB too. Loss of velocity and command are generally thought to be signs of the dreaded UCL tear. I would think they have checked that out but you have to wonder.
DeleteHe's not gotten off to a good start but the dude has only 50 innings to his name so let's give him a year or two to develop.
DeleteBednar? I think you mean he's off to a bad start. Yes, it is a small sample size but it's not like the concern is based only on numbers. He has shown a significant loss of both velocity and command from what he had in college and was not being challenged at a high level. Sure, maybe it's just come mechanical think he will get worked out but he hasn't yet and that combination is widely considered a red flag for UCL injury.
DeleteYeah, I agree I wouldn't be surprised if it's injury-related and if so, all the more reason to give him some time to recover or develop.
ReplyDeleteWho is not giving him time?
Delete4:26 AM!
DeleteWhen do you sleep?
LOL! I am up and down.
DeleteThere are a lot of Bednar's a bust sentiment going around the interwebs.
ReplyDeleteAnything can happen but the track record of elite college SP's with pro career starts like Bednar's is not encouraging.
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DeleteAnd the point I'm trying to make is it appears to be more than a mere sample size problem.
I'm not disagreeing with the track record, but would you put Bednar in the category of elite college SPs? When I think of elite college SPs, I think of top 3, top 5, heck even top 10 guys like Strasburgh, Mize, etc. But regardless, Bednar seems to me more like Chris Stratton, who saw his velocity climb before the draft and then his velocity came down again post draft. I guess it remains to be seen whether Bednar's velocity drop is due to some kind of hidden injury or if it's just temporary.
DeleteBednar was a Friday starter in an elite conference(SEC) for a team that won the College World Series and was drafted in the top half of the first round. The first red flag for me was when the Giants placed him in low A. Maybe that's their organizational philosophy but pitchers with that pedigree generally start no lower than A+ and sometimes in AA. Then when he struggled for San Jose in an extremely conservative assignment it's red flag #2. And maybe the drop in velocity is mechanical and temporary but when it comes with bouts of extreme wildness, red flag #3. So maybe he was pitching hurt and his stay on the IL got him healthy and he's ready to show his true stuff in the AFL? Hm....nope. Red flag #4. So I hope Bednar and the Giants development coaches figure it out and he becomes the fast mover he appeared to be when he was drafted. I am not saying it can't happen, but it's currently not looking good. BTW, this will be my final comment for this thread.
DeleteThe results seem encouraging with the Giants playing lower level players against top prospects in AA and AAA.
ReplyDeleteAn A or A+ prospect doing well against higher prospects has got to be a good sign.
Whisenhunt is ++, seems to be a high end SP along with Harrison and Crawford and others to join Webb down the road.
Some 20-yo's hanging in there is positive.
Don't know if a slick-fielding-get-on-base 1Bman can compete unless the outfield is full of bashers. Maybe a Judge in the lineup can make up for 2, but you still need a couple more power guys. Maybe a SS with pop would help – it's got to come from somewhere.
We would rather see a player perform well in the AFL than not but it's a very small sample in an atypical environment.
DeleteYea, yea, Joc ties LaStella as the most overpaid Giant – both are about $10M overpays!
ReplyDeleteI disagree. In terms of WAR value, Joc is only about a $3 M overpay. Add in that it does not come with the risk of a multiyear contract and I think it's a great deal for both sides.
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