Scouting the 2023 Draft: Chase Dollander RHP

 Chase Dollander RHP, College(Tennesee).  DOB:  10/26/2001.  6'3", 200 lbs.

2021(Georgia Southern)- 4-3, 4.04, 49 IP, 28 BB, 64 K.

2022(Tennessee)- 10-0, 2.39, 79 IP, 13 BB, 108 K.

Dollander is the consensus top college pitcher in the draft and at least and Prospects Live ranks him #1 overall.  Lightly scouted and recruited out of high school, he demonstrated a jump in velocity during his freshman season at Georgia Southern then tranferred to the SEC school for his sophomore campaign where he dominated the toughest college conference.  Scouting reports have him with a mid-90's FB up to 98 MPH which he can throw both up and down in the strike zone.  He has 3 advanced secondary offerings including a slider, curve and changeup.  On video, he has an easy compact 3/4 delivery with lightning quick arm speed producing pitches that explode from behind his right ear with almost no time for the batter to start tracking pre-release.  Barring injury, which is always the fear with highly drafted pitching prospects, he should move through a farm system quickly with MLB ETA as early as midseason 2024 and it's not out of the question that he could pitch in the majors immediately after the draft.

Hot Stove League Update: Astros Sign Jose Abreu

 The Jose Abreu era came to an end on the South Side of Chicago as Jose Abreu 1B/DH signed a 3 yr/$58.5 M contract to play for the World Series Champion Astros.  Abreu is coming off his age 35 season in which his HR's dropped from 30 to 15 but his BA increased by .043 and his doubles increased from 30 to 40.  Fangraphs credits him with an fWAR of 3.9 despite negative defensive metrics at 1B.  This move has several ripple effects for both teams.  

The Yuli Gurriel era is apparently over for the Astros and the Andrew Vaughn era is about to begin for the White Sox.  This move considerably strengthens the defending champs as Abreu's 3.9 fWAR replaces Gurriel's -0.9.  Vaughn is coming off a decent year at the plate, .271/.321/.429, 17 HR but his defensive metrics are way worse than even Abreu's which dragged his fWAR down to -0.4 so he will need to continue his upward offensive trajectory and get better in the field.

The Chisox rebuild, which a couple of seasons ago looked like they were building a championship contender, seems to have plateaued.  It's a bit unclear what direction they are headed now.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Dylan Crews

 We'll start off our draft profiles with the player most mentioned as a potential 1-1, Dylan Crews.  Crews is not a new name in draft discussions as he was a likely Day 1 pick out of HS in 2020 but withdrew from that draft to play college ball at LSU.  I remember there were analysts who liked him a lot out of HS with some even comparing him to Mike Trout!  He has absolutely raked in college while playing in the toughest conference.

Dylan Crews OF.  DOB:  2/26/2002.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 203 lbs.  

2021(LSU)- .362/.453/.663, 18 HR, 12 SB, 39 BB, 44 K, 287 PA.

2022(LSU)- .349/.463/.691, 22 HR, 5 SB, 42 BB, 56 K, 307 PA.

Crews has 5 plus tools with the hit tool probably being #1.  He has a muscular frame that is fully filled out so not a lot of projection there, but he already has the strength to hit for power in the major leagues.  BTW, I would like to see a study looking at how strong a predictor of MLB success a "projectable frame" actually is.  He may be borderline for covering CF but is fast enough to be a league average fielder there.  His plus arm will also play in RF.   On video, he eschews a leg kick for an approach similar to Wilmer Flores where he leans back on his right leg and while loading his hands and torso and uncoils while keeping his front elbow bent to produce a short, quick, powerful swing path.  Best comp is Alex Bregman who took a similar path to the draft and quickly became a very solid MLB player though not a superstar.  Like Bregman, there may be players in the draft with higher ceilings but none with a higher floor.

Hot Stove Update: Notes From Around the League

 While most of the Hot Stove League remains in suspended animation waiting for an announcement from Aaron Judge, some lower levels deals went down, mostly involving the Angels who appear to be finally trying to put a supporting cast around their superstars.  

It was the Angels who kicked off the Hot Stove League action with what might be an overpay of former Giants LHP Tyler Anderson.  Anderson is coming off a career season with the Dodgers at age 33 but was always a league-average or worse pitcher before that.  The Dodgers were impressed enough to give him the QO worth $19.65 M.  The Angels bit and forked over a 3 yr/$39 M contract which will also cost them a second round draft pick and $500 K in international bonus pool money.  Thankfully the Dodgers compensation pick falls between the 4'th and 5'th rounds.  Anderson adds another lefty arm to an Angels rotation that includes Shohei Ohtani RHP, Patrick Sandoval LHP, Reid Detmers LHP and Jose Suarez LHP.  Gotta question the Angels paying so much so soon for Anderson as the pitching if this free agent class is quite deep.

The next Angels move was a trade for Gio Urshula 3B/SS from the Twins.  Urshula came to the Twins last offseason in the trade that sent Josh Donaldson 3B to the Yankees.  Urshula is a solid player who put up a bWAR of 3.1(fWAR of 2.4) with a line of .285/.338/.429, 13 HR in 551 PA.  He is an average fielding 3B who can hold his own at SS but in a SSS.  He will probably be the Angels primary SS if Anthony Rendon 3B is healthy.  Urshula is arbitation eligible and projected to earn about $9.5 M in 2023.  The Twins get 19 yo pitching prospect Alejandro Hidalgo RHP back in the deal. Hidalgo struck out 58 batters in 39 IP for A Inland Empire last season.  He may turn out to be a good one but it seems like a small pay for a pretty solid position player for the Angels.

The next move by the Angels was to acquire Hunter Renfroe OF from the Brewers for 3 pitching prospects.  The much traveled Renfroe has always had light-tower power but was a one-dimensional player until the last two seasons in which he has hit 31 and 29 HR's while bringing his BA up from the low .200's to the .250's.  

In summary, after years of shopping in the MLB equivalent of Rodeo Drive, the Angels seem to have decided to ignore the top of the market and try to build a supporting cast for their superstars by shopping at the equivalent of Target and have done a solid job of it.  Now watch them be the "mystery team" that signs Aaron Judge!  Just kidding.....I think.....

Other lesser deals include the Reds trading for Kevin Newman IF from the Pirates, Carlos Santana 1B/DH signing with the Pirates and Mike Clevinger RHP agreeing to terms with the White Sox.

Scouting the 2023 Draft: Could the Giants Pick #1 Overall?

 ......The answer is yes, the Giants have a chance to pick #1 overall in the 2023 draft.  That's because the draft rules changed dramatically in the last Basic Agreement signed when the 2022 lockout was settled.  So just what are the Giants chances of selecting #1 overall?  Well, not great but not zero.  Here's how it works:

The 18 non-playoff teams from 2022 enter a draft lottery for the top 6 picks to be held on December 6 at the Winter Meetings.  The odds are weighted to favor the teams with worse records.  By the old system of ranking worst to best records, the Giants would be drafting #16.  I have not done the math myself but others who have say the Giants have approximately a 90% chance of drafting #16.  There is approximately a 5% chance they move up to one of the top 6 spots and approximately a 5% chance they move down to #17.  The chance they draft #1 overall is 0.5% compared to 16.5% each for the Nationals, A's and Pirates.  

Wherever the Giants pick, they will not lose their first round selection even if they sign Aaron Judge.  If they sign a free agent with a QO, they will lose a second round pick but they will almost certainly gain a pick when Carlos Rodon signs with another organization.

So, all you baseball draftniks out there make sure to circle the date 12/6, 5:30 PM PST on MLB channel to see if the Giants move up in the draft, possibly all the way to #1 overall!

I am hoping to feature expanded draft coverage this year.  Last year between a lost 2020 season and the Giants drafting last in the queue, coverage it seemed like a difficult and almost pointless task.  We'll start by profiling some of the more highly ranked draft prospects then start to rank them as the draft approaches.  

A shoutout to Prospects Live, linked to the right.  Check it out for much more complete and knowledgeable draft coverage.

Hot Stove Update: Is Dave Winfield A Comp For Aaron Judge?

 As Giants fans wait with baited breath for any word, sign, smoke signal or tea leaf that Aaron Judge might be signing a free agent contract with the Giants, I have racked by brain to think of any reasonable comp to this unique and uniquely talented player.  There is no question that Aaron Judge would instantly address most of the Giants roster deficiencies, especially on the positional side, in one single move.  Middle-of-the-order-bat?  Check.  Plus defensive outfielder?  Check.  Star power to get butts in seats?  Check.  fWAR boost to a postseason win total?  Check.  

The obvious concern, which is always brought up, is length of contract and injury risk.  Whether true or not, conventional wisdom is that physically large players tend to not age well.  But is this an inevitability for Judge?  Today, as I was thumbing through my brain's Rolodex, I suddenly thought of a similar sized and talented outfielder who had an extraordinarily long career:  Dave Winfield!  As I dug through their Fangraphs stat sheets, I was struck by the similarities.  So let's do a comp/contrast and see what turns up.

Dave Winfield OF, 6'6", 220 lbs(I am pretty sure he weighed more at the peak of his career and later).  B-R, T-R.  Drafted Age 21 1973 Round 1, Pick #4 out of college(Minnsota).  Did not play an inning of minor league ball. Had 158 MLB PA's in 1973.  

Free agency after age 28 season(1980):  .276/.365/.450, 20 HR, 23 SB, 12.3 BB%, 12.9 K%, 643 PA, fWAR= 3.6.  Signed a 10 yr/$23 M contract with the Yankees which made him at the time the highest paid player in MLB(George Steinbrenner was apparently unaware of a COLA in the contract which increased its total value from $16 M to $23 M, a misunderstanding that led to their infamous feud).

Age 30 Season(1982):  .280/.331/.560, 37 HR, 5 SB, 7.5 BB%, 10.7 K%, 597 PA, fWAR= 3.5.

Age 31 Season(1983):  .283/.345/.513, 32 HR, 15 SB, 8.7 BB%, 11.6 K%, 664 PA, fWAR= 3.0.

Age 36 Season(1988):  .322/.398/.530, 25 HR, 9 SB, 10.0 BB%, 13.9 K%, 631 PA, fWAR= 5.0.

Age 40 Season(1992):  .290/.377/.491, 26 HR, 2 SB, 12.2 BB%, 13.3 K%, 670 PA, fWAR= 3.8.

Notes:  670 PA at age 40 is....well, stupendous!  fWAR's dragged down by horrendous fielding metrics as early as 1980, his age 28 season.

Aaron Judge OF, 6'7", 280 lbs(I will add he carries his weight well).  B-R, T-R, Drafted Age 21, 2013 Round 1, Pick #32 out of college(Fresno St).  MLB debut 2016 Age 24.  

Age 29 Season(2021):  .287/.373/.544, 39 HR, 6 SB, 11.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, 633 PA, fWAR= 5.5.

Age 30 Season(2022):  .311/.425/.686, 62 HR, 16 SB, 15.9 BB%, 25.1 K%, 696 PA, fWAR= 11.4.

Notes:  Judge missed considerable playing time in 2018(age 26) and 2019( age 27) to injuries but still put up fWAR's of 5.3 and 4.3 respectively.  In addition to his explosive bat, Judge has been an average to plus defensive OF including in CF(more on that later) which helped his fWAR numbers.  Unable to comp age 28 seasons(the year before Winfield hit free agency due to COVID-shortened 2020 season).

Conclusion:  Although comps are far from a guarantee or predictor of mutual success, Dave Winfield was a strikingly similar player both in size, skillset and age at similar milestones.  Like Aaron Judge, Winfield had down seasons and injury shortened seasons but was able to maintain a high level of production all the way to age 40.  Again, while Judge may not enjoy similar longevity, the Winfield comp shows it is at least possible.

Back to the CF thing.  Although Aaron Judge clearly has the speed and athleticism to play RF for the Giants in Oracle Park, lefty throwers have an angle advantage on balls hit deep into Triples Alley(think Gregor Blanco's catch that saved Matt Cain's perfect game).  While a righty thrower has a similar angle advantage from CF.  Judge put up solid fielding metrics in CF.  It might be a better defensive alignment(at least against RHP's) to play Judge in CF and a lefty thrower like YtY in RF.

Happy Thanksgiving

 The Hot Stove League is on Aaron Judge break.  Pretty much nothing happens until he decides where to play the rest of his career.  As a Giants fan, I am thankful for three championship seasons in my lifetime and sending up positive thoughts to the baseball gods to allow Aaron to make the right decision and sign with the Giants.

Down on the Farm: AAA Sacramento River Cats Season Review

 The River Cats season review has to start with David Villar IF not only winning the PCL MVP but graduating to the major leagues and finishing the season strong enough to not pick up Evan Longoria's option.   The Giants are possibly lucky to have Villar at all after he was left off the 40-man roster and exposed to the Rule 5 Draft after a strong AA season in 2021.  Fortunately the Rule 5 Draft was cancelled due to the agreement ending the lockout and Villar started his season in Sacramento where he raked.  After a rough first call up to the majors, he went back to Sacramento, worked on some things and came back looking like a legitimate MLB player.

David Villar IF:  DOB:  1/27/1997.  6'1", 215lbs.  B-R, T-R.  Drafted in 2018 Round 11 out of South Florida.  

2022 AAA:  .275/.404/.617, 27 HR, 15.0 BB%, 25.4 K%, 366 PA.  MLB:  .231/.331/.455, 9.9 BB%, 32 K%, 9 HR, 181 PA(.269/.327/.570 with 8 HR in 101 PA after return from AAA in Sept).

With Evan Longoria gone, we have to think Villar has the inside tract at the starting 3B job out of spring training.  

Let's not forget the Luis Gonzalez OF started the season in Sacramento too.  The White Sox cut him loose in 2021 when his season ended due to injury.  FZ was willing to pay him to rehab and picked him up off waivers.  He came back healthy in 2022 and put up a slash line of .289/.402/.539, 6 HR, 92 PA.  He took off right away after his promotion but struggled later in the season and showed a noticeable lack of HR power at the MLB level so he is at a bit of a crossroads going into 2023. Not sure if he has an option for 2023.

Isan Diaz IF- .275/.377/.574, 23 HR, 7 SB, 347 PA.  Diaz was acquired from the Marlins for cash on April 30.  He was off and on the IL but performed well when healthy.  The Giants added him to the 40-man roster this offseason so he'll get a look in spring training. He's always put up great numbers in the minors but his MLB BA is well under the Mendoza Line.

Sean Hjelle RHP was the big success story on the pitching side.  He was the Giants second round draft pick in 2018 out of Kentucky(college) and has worked his way slowly up through the system.  

2022 AAA:  6-9, 4.92, 97 IP, 38 BB, 80 K, GO/AO= 2.26.  MLB:  1-2, 5.76, 25 IP, 8 BB, 28 K, GO/AO= 2.75(1-0, 2.08, 13 IP, 3 BB, 13 K over last 3 appearances).  

I never see Hjelle mentioned as a rotation option for the Giants for 2023 but to me he showed enough to be given that opportunity.  He is able to use his unique height to get downward plane on the ball and induce dominant groundball rates.  Maybe the Giants see him in more of a swingman role?  I think he has an option left which may consign him to starting the season back in Sacramento.

The rest of the River Cats season as serving as a hub for The Churn with numerous players churning in and out of the roster.

Down on the Farm: Tristan Peters vs Brett Wisely Smackdown

 FZ's Churn was in high gear in the minutes leading up to the deadline to add players to the 40-man roster which protects them from the Rule 5 Draft.  In a fascinating move, he traded a player he acquired in a deadline trade last season, Tristan Peters OF, who still has 2 years of development before he has to be protected, for Ben Wisely 2B/UT in a deal with, who else?  The Rays!  Wisely years of free development are used up so he was added immediately to the 40-man roster, which brings up another name that was not added, Will Wilson SS.  To help us understand what happened here, let's do a smackdown, Peters vs Wisely vs Wilson.

Will Wilson SS:   DOB:  7/21/1998(24 yo), 6'0", 184 lbs.  B-R, T-R.  Drafted 2019 Round 1(#15 overall(Angels)).  

2022(Complex)- .500/.588/.750, HR, 11.8 BB%, 23.5 K%, 34 PA.

2022(AA)- .225/.324/.445, 12 HR, 12.8 BB%, 29.7 K%, 219 PA.

2022(AAA)- .182/.250/.242, 5.6 BB%, 38.9 K%, 36 PA.

FZ bought himself an additional first round draft pick from the 2019 draft by taking Zack Cozart's $12 M contract from the Angels and then releasing him.  The loss of the 2020 minor league season was probably had a strong negative impact on Wilson's development.  He performed pretty well in A+ in 2021 but hit a wall after a promotion to AA.  He did better at AA in 2022 but suffered a hamate injury which required surgery shortly after promotion to AAA and only got a few PA's late in the season.  He has power and can draw a walk but persistently high K rates drag down his slash line.  He may not quite have the defensive chops to play SS at the MLB level.  It has to sting that FZ traded for a player to add to the 40-man roster but left Wilson off.

Tristan Peters OF:  DOB:  2/29/2000(22 yo, 23 for 2023 season), 6'0", 180 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  Drafted 2021 Round 7(Brewers).

2022 A+(Brewers)- .306/.386/.485, 7 HR, 13 SB, 11.7 BB%, 15.9 K%, 383 PA.

2022 AA(Giants)- .212/.302/.303, HR, 10.1 BB%, 20.8 K%, 149 PA.  

FZ acquired Peters in a deadline trade for Trevor Rosenthal RHP.  He's a better hitter than Wilson by K and BB rates but with less power.  Lack of power might play in CF but Peters seems to be more of a corner OF type.  Interesting that FZ traded a prospect who did not have to be added to the 40-man roster for 2 more years for one that had to be added immediately.

Brett Wisely 2B/UT:  DOB:  5/8/1999(23 yo, age 24 season 2023), 5'10", 180 lbs.  B-L, T-R.  Drafted 2019 Round 15(Rays).  

2022 AA- .274/.371/.460, 15 HR, 31 SB, 12.4 BB%, 20.8 K%, 500 PA.

2022 AAA- .238/.261/.333, 4.3 BB%, 26.1 K%, 23 PA.

Very similar player to Tristan Peters but with way more positional versatility.  With Jason Vosler out of options and Tommy La Stella questionable for being able to play in the field, FZ needed a lefty IF bat with options who can ride the Sacramento shuttle as Vosler did the last several years.  His big advantage over Will Wilson is likely the B-L.

Hot Stove Update: Joc Accepts QO; Rosters Set for Rule 5 Draft; Keep On Churnin'!

 Big day in the Hot Stove League as it was deadline day for players to accept Qualifying Offers and also the deadline to finalize 40-man rosters to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.  The biggest news here is Joc Pederson OF/DH accepting the QO.  This is the 3'rd year in a row a Giants player has been offered and accepted a QO after Kevin Gausman RHP for 2021 and Brandon Belt 1B for 2022.  Gausman worked out great for the Giants while Belt was a disappointment mostly due to injury.

I don't get why people keep saying this is surprising or an overpay by the Giants.  Per Fangraphs, Joc earned $16.4 M in fWAR equivalents last season and that was dragged down by his overexposure on defense due to injuries to other players.  Essentially that Giants are saying they think he can do that again and they are willing to pay a $3 M premium to avoid the risk of a multiyear contract, a very reasonable amount and one they can well afford.  The Giants are suddenly weaker from the left side of the plate and Joc was the best pure lefthanded bat on the market. So great deal for both the Giants and Joc.

FZ made it pretty clear that Joc's primary role is expected to be DH.  In response to the obvious question, he said Tommy La Stella UT will have to play multiple positions next season to have value on the roster which does not sound like a vote of confidence for La Stella being on the Opening Day roster.

As expected, Carlos Rodon LHP declined his QO, which was less than his declined option, and will hit the open market where he will likely get a 9 figure contract.  Martin Perez LHP was the only other player to accept their QO so the Giants track record of 3 consecutive acceptances is remarkably aggressive.

It was also Rule 5 Draft Protect day and here is where things took a couple of unexpected turns.  The Giants added 6 prospect to their 40-man roster:  Marco Luciano SS, Luis Matos OF, Tristan Beck RHP, Jose Cruz RHP Keaton Winn RHP and Brett Wisely 2B.....wait, what?  Whotheheck is Brett Wisely?  Oh yeah, literally minutes before the roster deadline, the Giants traded Tristan Peters OF to the Rays(who else?) for Wisely which is interesting because Peters and Wisely appear to be similar players and Peters has two more seasons before he is Rule 5 eligible.  I don't really have space to get into the details in this post.  Maybe we'll do a Wisely vs Peters smackdown in another post?

The trade for Wisely and his addition to the 40-man roster raised eyebrows in another direction because Will Wilson SS, who I think could be drafted, was left off.  Also a bit surprising was Keaton Winn being added in favor of Nick Avila RHP who fits the profile of a Rule 5 draftee who actually sticks with the drafting team.  And while I think Jose Cruz was also a prime candidate to be drafted, protecting him over Avila, a similar pitcher at a higher level, is interesting.

So the 6 players added plus Joc's signing forced the Giants to DFA 7 players off the 40-man roster, something you knew was coming.  Probably the biggest surprise was Jarlin Garcia LHP, so it's safe to say he won't be tendered a contract at the arbitration deadline. Other DFA's were Sam Delaplane RHP, Drew Strotman RHP, Dom Nunez C, Meibrys Viloria C Jason Vosler IF and Colton Welker 3B.  The Giants obviously hope other teams also have big time roster crunches and that several of these players sneak through waivers. 

Churn on!

Down on the Farm: AA Richmond Flying Squirrels Season Review

 As MLB organizations have increasingly used their AAA affiliates as an extended bench, "real" prospects tend to be found more in AA and AA is the level where prospects reach a level of competition that starts to tell how their tools will translate to MLB skills.  The Eastern League in general and Richmond in particular have been more challenging for Giants hitting prospects than for pitching prospects.  That dynamic is gradually shifting toward  hitting but it's still a bigger test for hitters than for pitchers.

The two biggest stories out of Richmond this season were from players who started the season in A+ ball, Casey Schmitt 3B and Kyle Harrison LHP.  Both got midseason promotions after dominating the Northwest League and both continued to dominate at the higher level.  In fact, Schmitt put up even better numbers after his promotion!

Casey Schmitt 3B- .342/.378/.517, 3 HR, 127 PA.  

Kyle Harrison LHP- 4-2, 3.11, 84 IP, 39 BB, 127 K.  

Look for both of these players in AAA Sacramento in the spring and both are likely to make their MLB debut sometime during the 2023 season.

Other lines of note:

Frankie Tostado 1B- .284/.330/.459, 11 HR, 315 PA.  Drafted 2017 so at least Rule 5 eligible and possibly minor league FA.

Riley Mahan 2B/1B- .266/.377/.500, 3 HR, 78 PA.  Nice numbers after promotion from A and A+ ball.  Drafted 2017(Marlins), so same boat as Tostado.

Will Wilson SS- .225/.324/.445, 12 HR, 219 PA.  Suffered a hamate injury just as he seemed to be finally gaining some traction.  Rule 5 Draft eligible.  Tough decision.  FZ has a lot invested in him.

Tyler Fitzgerald SS- .229/.310/.424, 21 HR, 20 SB, 519 PA.  If you ignore the BA, those are pretty good numbers.  Also Rule 5 eligible.

Brett Auerbach UT- .220/.311/.398, 17 HR, 12 SB, 425 PA.  Similar line to Fitzgerald.  Ace in the hole is he can play catcher.  One more year before Rule 5 eligible.

Sean Roby 3B- .219/.286/.481, 25 HR, 353 PA.  Light tower power but a one-dimensional player.  Drafted in 2018 so at least Rule 5 eligible and possibly eligible for minor league free agency.

Diego Rincones OF and Ricardo Genoves C have elected minor league free agency.

Nick Avila RHP- 2-1, 1.33, 27 IP, 6 BB, 27 K.  Rule 5 eligible and high risk for being selected.  FZ may want to add him to 40-man roster to protect him.

Cole Waites RHP- 2-2, 1.71, 21 IP, 15 BB, 38 K.  Would be Rule 5 eligible except he's already on the 40-man roster.  Made MLB debut in 2022.

Landon Roupp RHP- 2-1, 3.76, 26.1 IP, 11 BB, 31 K.  Older later round draftee in 2021.  Worked his way through 3 levels.  Sleeper for making the major leagues in 2023.

Chris Wright LHP- 4-2, 3.86, 56 IP, 35 BB, 76 K, 6 Saves.  Lefty reliever who has put up exciting K rates at each level.  Rule 5 eligible and could be at risk of being selected.

R.J. Dabovich RHP- 4-1, 2.70, 26.2 IP, 6 BB, 38 K, 5 Saves.  High ceiling reliever with Closer potential.  Has another year before Rule 5 eligible.

Kai-Wei Teng RHP- 6-12, 5.22, 136.1 IP, 85 BB, 169 K.  Jumbo body, lots of K's but also lots of walks and hits.  Rule 5 eligible.

Down on the Farm: 2022 AFL Review

 The Arizona Fall League is wrapping up with their championship game today.  The Giants assigned several players to the Scottsdale Scorpions who are not one of the finalists so we can take a look at how their prospects fared.  The Arizona Fall League was started as a showcase league for top prospects in AA and AAA.  The Giants have never seemed enthusiastic about the league and tend to use it more as a place for prospects who missed time due to injury can get extra PA's or IP.   Below are the stat lines for Giants AFL participants.  Remember it's an extremely small sample and historically unprojectable.  For example, Buster Posey played in the AFL once upon a time and had a terrible stat line.

Luis Matos CF- .233/.280/.360, 2 HR, 93 PA.  Matos was one of a handful of 20 year olds on the Scorpions team and has not played above A+.  He started off hot the struggled.  Just getting some extra PA's in.  

Logan Wyatt 1B- .306/.500/.347, 17 BB, 7 K, 68 PA.  The latest god of walks.  Still no power.  Missed most of 2022 with injuries.

Adrian Sugastey C- .385/.429/.423, 28 PA.  Just turned 20 yo in Oct and never played above low A ball.  Don't sleep on him as a prospect.

Andy Thomas C- .182/.372/.212, 10 BB, 8 PA, 43 PA.  Midseason trade acquisition with strong K/BB's. 

Spencer Bivens RHP- 0-0, 0.87, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 11 K.  Older pitcher signed as UDFA out of indy ball.  

Tyler Myrick RHP- 0-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 5 BB, 10 K.  

Carson Whisenhunt LHP- 0-1, 2.84, 6.1 IP, 3 BB, 11 K.  A couple of impressive starts for the Giants 2022 second round draft pick.  Changeup is reportedly MLB quality now.  Should be a fast mover through the farm system.

Hunter Dula RHP- 0-0, 4.82, 9.1 IP, 6 BB, 10 K.  

Will Bednar RHP- 0-0, 16.20, 3.1 IP, 2 BB, 3 K's.  First round pick from 2021 continues to struggle.

Hot Stove League Update: Shuffling the Deck

The Hot Stove League is open and with a flurry of activity though no major acquisitions just yet.  The biggest news for the Giants was a couple of Qualifying Offers to Carlos Rodon LHP and Joc Pederson OF.  The Rodon offer was a foregone conclusion.  It's also foregone that he will decline it and go into free agencyw where he is expected to land a very large contract.  5 years/$125 M seems to be the starting point for Rodon contract speculation.  The tea leaves seem to be saying it won't be the Giants paying him.

The Joc Pederson offer seems to have caught a lot of people by surprise but if you are a reader of When the Giants Come to Town, you were fully prepped.  Now the attention shifts to Joc and whether he will accept.  IMO, he is the best lefthanded bat on the market and may have a multi-year offer on the table large enough to make him decline, but the $19.6 M for 1 year seems significantly bigger than the AAV in any multi-year deal he would get.  He has until November 15 to decide.

The second big news of the day is the Giants declined Evan Longoria 3B's $13 M club option for 2023, will pay him the $5 M buyout and he's also a free agent.  Based on FZ's comments it does not seem like a smaller deal to bring Longoria back is going to happen.  FZ cited David Villar 3B's breakout and J. D. Davis 3B as well as the minor league success of Casey Schmitt 3B as reasons for declining Longo's option.  

FZ also indicated that the Giants intend to tender a contract to arbitration-eligible Lamonte Wade Jr. OF.  FZ believes injuries held him back and his secondary stats look good for a bounceback season in 2023.

There was some shuffling of the deck at the bottom of the 40-man roster.  The Giants outrighted Austin Dean OF, Bryce Johnson OF, Taylor Jones IF, Zack Littell RHP and Ford Proctor UT to AAA Sacramento.  Andrew Vasquez LHP and Luis Ortiz RHP were claimed off waiver by the Phillies.  Most of those roster spots were filled by players coming of the 60-day IL:  Sam Delaplane RHP, Anthony DeSclafani RHP, Mauricio Llovera RHP, Sam Long LHP, Gregory Santos RHP, Donovan Walton IF, Colton Welker IF and Alex Wood LHP.

The Churn was still active with three waiver claims:  Meibrys Viloria C and Drew Strotman RHP from the Rangers and Dom Nunez C from the Rockies.  Viloria and Nunez are both lefty, but light hitting with MLB experience.  Strotman compiled a 6.32 ERA in 52.2 IP for two minor league teams last season.  He has both a high K and high BB rate.  All 3 of these pickups seem to be fodder for The Churn.

Lastly the Giants selected Isan Diaz IF from AAA Sacramento to the 40 man roster, presumably to keep him out of minor league free agency.

The Giants 40 man roster is now full and will have to be trimmed further before the deadline to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.

2022-2023 Giants Hot Stove League Preview: QO for Joc?

 The Giants have 5 days to decide whether to offer their players entering free agency a Qualifying Offer.  This year the QO is set at $19.65 M about $1 M higher than last season.  We all know Carlos Rodon will receive a QO and will decline it.  $19.65 M is less than the the contract he opted out of.  Joc Pederson is a more interesting case with arguments in both directions.  He is coming off a really good offensive season in which he mashed RHP's and accumulated 2.1 fWAR which was worth $16.4 M per Fangraphs despite being dragged down by truly terrible defensive metrics.  His Steamer projection for 2023 is 2.0 WAR which Ben Clemons in his Fangraphs chat today notes probably undervalues him because injuries forced the Giants to overexpose his defensive liabilities.  MLBTR does not have their free agent predictions out yet, but Fangraphs Clemons has him listed as their #48 ranked with a projection of 2 yr/$18 M.  MLB.com has the Giants as "could go either way" on a QO and predicts they will work out an extension.

So, here are some arguments pro and con from the Giants perspective:

Pro:  

1.  While it is is a relatively small overpay for his projected production, it's only for 1 year so does not come with the risk of a multi-year contract.  

2.  Other than possibly Brandon Nimmo, Joc is probably the best pure lefthanded hitter on the market and even Nimmo's added value is more due to his defensive ability.  

3.  While Joc would likely accept a QO, if he did not the Giants would receive an added draft pick which FZ values more for the added flexibility the bonus slot gives him than the pick itself, which partially offsets the modest overpay.

Con:

1.  It's an overpay and about the same total value as Fangraphs projected 2 year/deal for the open market.  If the Giants really want him, they can probably sign him on the open market for 2-3 years at far lower AAV.

2.  While the FA market for lefty bats is not great, there may be some short term bargains out there similar to Joc's situation last year.

So, who are some of these lefty bats which may be undervalued alternatives to Joc Pederson?  We already mentioned Nimmo but he's more of a major longterm acquisition than Joc's niche as a left DH bat/emergency OF.  A QO to Joc and going after Nimmo are not mutually exclusive.

Michael Conforto somewhat mysteriously remained unsigned late into last year's Hot Stove League and ultimately revealed he suffered a shoulder injury working out in January which required surgery.  He is Fangraphs #30 FA with a projected 1 yr/$12 M "pillow" contract.  While that could be much more of a bargain than a QO deal for Pederson, let's remember Conforto's 2021 season was not good.  Between that and the injury/surgery, there it much more variance in his projected production than in Joc's.

Joey Gallo has as much power potential as any free agent on the market, Aaron Judge included.  He is coming off a terrible season and will undoubtedly be looking for a "pillow" deal which will likely be for under $10 M.  The upside is he's hit 38 or more HR's in 3 separate seasons.  The negative is he is an extreme 3-true-outcomes guy with a career BA at the Mendoza Line which drags down the rest of his slash line. I could see FZ being eager to take a chance on Gallo's power potential and not be dissuaded by the K rate/low BA. In fact, my bold prediction for the Hot Stove League is the Giants signing Gallo!

If Joc is going to be primarily a LH DH, it may not matter than he can be a statue in the OF.  Brandon Belt could fill the role of lefty DH and would also likely accept a significantly lower 1 year contract.  Belt's downside is he has not been able to stay healthy for a full season, pretty much ever and is coming off season-ending knee surgery so his health/availability is no sure thing and even unlikely even for one season.

Other possible options include Lamonte Wade Jr who is arbitration eligible, which is another decision the Giants need to make, and Luis Gonzalez who got off to a hot start in his rookie season but tailed off badly at the end. Wade Jr and Gonzalez are low expense but also very unlikely to come close to Joc's offensive production.

Conclusion:  The Giants should try to work out an extension with Joc over the next few days but failing that, should offer him a QO.  Worse case scenario is he accepts which is far from disaster.  If he does not, they get a draft pick with added slot bonus pool as compensation.(note the slot bonus does not give them money. It just potentially enables them to draft and sign a better player in next year's draft).  

2022-2023 Giants Hot Stove League Preview: Giants Hot Stove League Priorities

 Back atcha.  Before we get started, congrats to Dusty Baker(his team, not so much) for finally getting the postseason monkey off his back.  Dusty is a good manager.  Every team he has taken over has gotten better under his leadership and the postseason is a crapshoot.  By the time the craps game got to the last round this year, he was managing the clearcut best team.  As we well know, best teams do not always win in the postseason and Dusty had plenty of opportunity to panic and blow it once again.  He kept his cool through the craziness of pitch-tipping third game and the fury of the Phillies fans over some of the player's history of cheating(although Dusty was not part of that and was, in fact, brought in to help clean up the mess).  Congratulations Dusty.  Giants fans should celebrate with you.

Having completed the Giants 2022-2023 Hot Stove League Depth Charts, let's take a look what the Giants need to do to make this year's Hot Stove League a success.  

1.  Middle of the Order Hitter.  Notice that every playoff team had at least one big middle of the order bat and most of them had at least two.  The most obvious positions to upgrade are the two corner OF's.  The most obvious target is Aaron Judge.  Signing him alone is probably not enough but it makes everything else easier.  

2.  Second Middle of the Order Hitter.  As we said, Judge alone is probably not enough and if the Giants fail to sign him then they definitely need two lesser bats.  If the Giants can acquire 2 middle of the order bats for the corner OF positions, they can put YtY and Austin Slater together for a straight L-R CF platoon and there's your OF.

3.  Cornerstone for the Future.  Rebuilding teams do not have to wait until they have a homegrown core to start signing big name free agents.  A free agent like Bryce Harper or one of the top tier shortstops is generally going to sign for a minimum of 5 years so the goal is to build around them and try to get a championship caliber roster within the contract window.  Of course, you have to convince the player you are serious about building a team around him but it can be and has been done.

4.  Ace Level Starting Pitcher.  Sean Hjelle looks ready to step up to the next level and future ace, Kyle Harrison is not far behind, but with Carlos Rodon a free agent and Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood coming off injuries it would be wise for the Giants to either bring Rodon back or sign another ace level pitcher.  This is less of a priority than a bat or two because FZ can likely get the rotation he wants by adding a mid-level SP or two plus a couple of bounceback candidates on minor league deals but  a co-ace to go with Logan Webb would be awfully nice to have, especially since the plan is to make the postseason where ace pitchers importance is magnified.

5.  Bullpen Setup Man who can Close.  Unlike last season, Camilo Doval is now a seasoned Closer who seems on the verge of becoming an elite closer.  He needs at least one and likely two setup men who can Close when Doval needs a breather and can step into the role in case of injury.

6.  Balance the Lineup.  This may come as a surprise to some but the Giants ended the 2022 season with a stronger right side of the lineup than left.  Of course that should not dissuade them from signing Aaron Judge, but if they do, the other bat they add, preferably corner OF, should be a lefty hitter.  That could be Joc Pederson(more on him in the next post) but if they are successful in signing Judge, they can roll the dice a bit with the other corner bat and/or DH.  You heard it here first:  FZ loves him some three-true-outcomes guys.   Joey Gallo is going to be a Giant next season!