The Giants moved quickly once the lockout ended to fill the last slot in their starting rotation, except they filled one of the top two slots and bumped everyone else down a slot. On paper, Carlos Rodon was the best available free agent SP and by a large margin, but comes with significant injury concerns which is probably what enabled them to sign him to a short-term deal. The reported contract calls for 2 years/$44 M with an opt out for Rodon after the first season. The $44 M is split as $21.5 M this season and $22.5 M in 2023. That difference is unlikely to impact his decision on whether to opt out. So, what are the Giants getting here? Let's break it down:
Carlos Rodon LHP. DOB: 12/10/1992. 6'3", 245 lbs.
2021(White Sox): 13-5, 2.37, 132.2 IP, 12.55 K/9, 2.44 BB/9.
Carlos Rodon was the #3 overall draft pick by the White Sox in 2014. He was known for having an above average FB and a killer slider in college. He pitched 139.1 innings the following season. On the surface, there is nothing to detract from his 2021 performance which would ordinarily get him to a 9-figure contract similar to what Kevin Gausman got from the Blue Jays. There are two issues with Rodon that limited his value: 1. A history of injuries limiting his innings and effectiveness in 2017-2020. 2. A dramatic and sustained drop in FB velocity after a midseason start 7/18/2021. Was this velocity drop due to expected fatigue of a full season after several seasons of low IP, or was it a harbinger of injury? He did come back from a 12 day layoff to throw 96 MPH FB's in a playoff start but lasted just 2.2 innings.
If he is fully healthy, Rodon gives the Giants a much needed co-ace and someone who can take the pressure off Logan Webb. He seems to carry a significant risk of recurrent injury but the worst case scenario is the Giants are only on the hook for 2 years. FZ has never shied away from pitchers with injury histories apparently viewing them as undervalued commodities. He also appears to hate anything longer than a 3-year commitment for any pitcher, so he's willing to take the injury risk in return for a shorter window of risk. I, for one, can't wait to see Rodon twirl that slider in a Giants uniform.
I like the signing. He's a young power left hander, high ceiling who slots as the #1 or #2 starter if he stays healthy, and was signed to a much shorter contract 2 yr $44 mil then Gausman 5 yr $110 mil with the Blue Jays which is in line with the type of pitching contracts FZ prefers to give out.
ReplyDeleteYES! Super excited now about the Giants' pitching rotation. I am thinking that the relief staff with McGee, Rogers, Doval Brebia, Leone and others will take the wear and tear off of Rodon's shoulder. The other thing is with the 162 game schedule still on, there will have to be a fair amount of double headers. Beede, Hjelle and Long will get opportunities to start and need to step up. Any thoughts on which one of those pitchers may rise to the occasion? Looking forward to see if the Giants can continue their success from last year.
ReplyDeleteSeems like it's a make-or-break/all-or-nothing year for Tyler Beede. He's already shown he can pitch like an ace at his best. He's also shown what his floor is and it's really low. I think I am higher on Sean Hjelle than a lot of analysts. Love the height although I understand it can work against him. Between the height and strong command, I think he can be at least a #3/4 SP in the majors. I'm less optimistic about Long. Good stuff but the command has not been there yet.
DeleteDon't sleep on Will Bednar making his MLB debut in 2022.
DeleteThis is great news! I think when Gausman and Robbie Ray signed big deals Rodon was arguably the most attractive pitcher left. The best part was not getting locked in on a long term deal with a starter who could be just as good as those two. I was hoping Giants would get him, and they did - yay!
ReplyDeleteSeems like Farhan is looking at this as a one-year deal. If it goes well and Rodon excels, someone other than Farhan will give him a four- or five-year megadeal, and he'll be gone. If he underperforms or his arm goes kablooey, Farhan will be stuck with the large 2023 salary. Apparently Farhan thinks that's fairly remote and was willing to risk it. All in all, then, it is a bridge until more of the young starters can become established. Could work out well for this year. I'll certainly trust Farhan's judgment about Rodon's balky arm.
ReplyDeleteBTW Doc, I'm glad you're still posting!
I've got a feeling that this might be another Jeff Samardzija situation. High ceiling, but I wouldn't bet the franchise on this pickup.
ReplyDelete...except Smarj was signed for 5 years and this is just a 2-year deal.
DeleteAlso except the part where Smarj was never even remotely as good as Rodon's 2021.
DeleteThat too!
DeleteWow Doc, I remember a post about Carlos Martinez as being a good pickup for pitching depth, and guess what the Giants just signed him. Good pickup he can start and pitch out of bullpen and he's still young only 30 years old.
ReplyDelete