Monday, March 21, 2022

Hot Stove Update: Wrap Up

 I am calling the Hot Stove League officially done for 2021-2022.  Michael Conforto OF is the only major position player still on the market, but the signing of Joc Pederson OF made it all but certain Conforto is not coming to the Giants.  So how did FZ and company do in the Hot Stove League?  They did very well, thank you, despite the widespread disappointment of Giants fans at the failure to land a higher ranked hitter.  

To recap the Giants needs going into Opening Day of the Hot Stove League:

1.  Rebuild the starting rotation which had just one holdover, Logan Webb RHP.  

2.  A hitter, preferably a RH hitter and preferably an OF.

Here's a list of major league signings(minor league signings were too numerous to count):

Brandon Belt 1B(accepted QO):  1 yr/$18.4 M Total/$18.4 AAV.
Matthew Boyd LHP:  1 yr/$5.2 M total/$5.2 M AAV(will start season on IL.  Expected return midseason)
Alex Cobb RHP:  2 yr/$20 M total/$10 M AAV(club option for 2024).
Anthony DeSclafani RHP:  3 yr/$35 M total/$12 M AAV.
Jakob Junis RHP:  1 yr/$1.75 M total/$1.75 M AAV.
Carlos Martinez RHP(minor league contract with salary contingent on making active roster):  1 yr/$2.5 M + incentives to $4 M/AAV TBD.
Joc Pederson OF:  1 yr/$6 M total/$6 M AAV.
Carlos Rodon LHP:  2 yr/$44 M total/$22 M AAV(Opt out after 1 yr).
Alex Wood LHP:  2 yr/$25 M total/$12.5 M AAV.

That all adds up to $156.35 m total investment in players with $87.85 M for 2022.  Per Cot's, the Giants Opening Day 26-man roster payroll is currently a projected $150.38 M($166.30 CBT Payroll, $63.71 M under threshold). For comparison, last year's Opening Day 26-man roster payroll was $149.5 M).  So the Giants spent money, and a lot of it.  But did they spend well?  Did they spend enough?  I think we all agree they did a nice job rebuilding the starting rotation.  The added an ace level pitcher as well as deep depth with the additions of Junis, Martinez and Boyd.  The big question mark is if they did enough on the hitting side.

First of all, there is a myth out there that the Giants needed to replace Buster Posey's offense through the free agent market.  Granted, Buster Posey's offense will likely be missed, but it's impossible to replace Buster Posey's offense through another position.  There is one and only one player who can "replace" Buster Posey's offense and that's Joey Bart.  That's not a great position for Young Joey to find himself in but that's the reality.

Let's take a look at some of the hitting options the Giants were rumored to be in on and who Giants fans had their hopes set on:

Seiya Suzuki OF:  Signed with Cubs.  5 yr/$85 M + $14.625 M posting fee).  Suzuki did seem like a perfect fit for several reasons.  I can't honestly advocate that the Giants should have exceeded or even matched the contract he got from the Cubs.  

Kris Bryant OF/3B:  Signed with Rockies.  7 yr/$182 M.  A lot of people were down on Kris Bryant.  I think he would be a great fit for the Giants, but not at the price or length he signed for with the Rockies.

Nick Castellanos OF:  Signed with the Phillies.  5 yr/$100 M.  This does not seem like an overpay for the Phillies, but it's also not a significant underpay.  Not sure if Giants were involved or if he would have signed with the Giants at any price.

Trevor Story SS/2B:  Signed with Red Sox.  6 yr/$140 M.  No thank you at that price.

Michael Conforto OF:  Still on the market but seems like another Joc Pederson at a higher price.

So there you have it.  While it is definitely disappointing to not land a higher ranked hitter than Joc Pederson, and it's not clear Joc is an upgrade over the 3 LH hitting OF's the Giants already had, it's probably the best deal they could have made given how hot the hitting market got as well as the possible residual aversion to the ballpark despite the Giants leading the league in HR's last year.

DrB's Final Hot Stove League Grade for FZ:  B+.

Don't forget there is still a trade market out there.  I'll just throw out one possible scenario:  Marlins desperately need a CF.  Giants need a RH bat.  Steven Duggar is out of options.  Marlins have a surplus of corner OF/1B/DH types.   A Steven Duggar for Garrett Cooper trade makes a lot of sense for both teams.

4 comments:

  1. Just a thought? I may have missed his transaction, but has Tommy Pham signed on with another club and how do you see his potential fit in the Giants roster?

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    1. I have advocated for Tommy Pham several times. I think he is a classic bounceback candidate and a great fit on paper for the roster. He seems to have dropped off the map and I wonder if there are off-field issues suppressing his market? At this point, I don't see the Giants signing another free agent OF, but I think they might trade one they have to balance the roster a bit more.

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  2. With the extra teams in playoffs, pretty much only a handful teams are in rebuilding mode. But for sure Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and now Oakland. The best hitter that might be available via trade is Cedric Mullins, the Orioles might be willing to sell high on him. Normally I'd be against buying high, but Mullins is the best upgrade you can make. CF left-handed lead-off hitter with 30 hr power. Not sure what kind of package it might take but something like: Heliot Ramos, Will Bednar, Gregory Santos, and Jairo Pomares.

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  3. I'd consider the off season action a success. Yes the Giants didn't land a big time hitter, but they did get a lot of quality pitching. Lots of experienced solid pitchers. The way the Giants want to play the game those guys will all be needed. Kapler is going to continue the matchup / platoon splits. I hope the coaches find a way to get Joc playing at an everyday level. He may not be the player we wanted, but he has been mostly productive in his career. The youth movement is getting close too, and he won't block anyone down the road. This should be a fun team.

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