Hot Stove Update: Fangraphs Publishes Five Year Projections For Seiya Suzuki

One of the more anticipated developments to follow the end of MLB's lockout, whenever that occurs, is the signing of Japanese free agent Seiya Suzuki.   Anticipation is running particularly high for Giants fans since their team is thought to be on Suzuki's short list of teams he is interested in signing with.  Suzuki put up spectacular numbers with the Hiroshima Carp in 2021:

.317/.433/.639, 38 HR, 9 SB, 533 PA.  

What that might translate to in MLB has been a mystery due to lack of MLB stats to plug into projection systems.  Dan Szymborski fixed that with a just-released ZIPS projection on Fangraphs based on comparative data from prior players with stats from both leagues.  Better yet, the projections are for 5 seasons, the projected duration of a Suzuki contract.  So without further ado, here they are:

2022:  .287/.351/.480, 23 HR, 12 SB, 529 AB, 2.6 fWAR.

2023:  .285/.350/.488, 23 HR, 10 SB, 502 AB, 2.5 fWAR.

2024:  .282/.349/.479, 21 HR, 10 SB, 489 AB, 2.2 fWAR.

2025:  .281/.347/.479, 21 HR, 9 SB, 474 AB, 2.1 fWAR.

2026:  .278/.341/.466, 19 HR, 8 SB, 457 AB, 1.6 fWAR.

It's important to understand that these numbers represent the mean of a range of possible outcomes.  Obviously it is highly unlikely that a player would put up such consistent numbers for 5 seasons.  Some seasons would likely be better and some worse.  The system also does not account for catastrophic injuries.  

You may be interested in how these projections compare to other potential free agent signings:

Kris Bryant(2022):  .261/.351/.463, 23 HR, 7 SB, 590 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Nick Castellanos(2022):  .287/.340/.534, 31 HR, 3 SB, 603 PA, 2.6 fWAR.

Tommy Pham(2022):  .246/.346/.397, 15 HR, 14 SB, 537 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Andrew McCutchen(2022):  .232/.336/.426, 19 HR, 6 SB, 470 PA, 1.0 fWAR.

J.D. Davis(2022):  .262/.342/.430, 12 HR, 2 SB, 371 PA, 1.3 fWAR.(possible trade candidate).

Of course Kris Bryant and Nick Castellanos are projected to cost significantly more than Seiya Suzuki, but I'm not so sure because Suzuki's market seems to have heated up during the lockout while Bryant's and Castellanos' seem to have cooled.  I'm not sure why Bryant's fWAR projects higher, maybe due to positional versatility?  Castellanos' value obviously takes a hit on defense.  Pham and Cutch would be bargain shopping deals and Davis' WAR value takes a hit due to a history of part time play with the Mets.