Marco Luciano SS. DOB: 9/10/2001. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 178 lbs.
2021(A): .278/.373/.556, 18 HR, 5 SB, 12.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, 308 PA.
2021(A+): .217/.283/.295, HR, SB, 6.9 BB%, 37.2 K%, 145 PA.
2021(AFL): .253/.356/.373, 12.6 BB%, 32.2 K%, 87 PA.
Marco Luciano was the top international prospect signed by the Giants in 2018 for $2.6 M. Considering they also signed Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares that year, that's saying something. Although Luciano was not necessarily the top overall international prospect in 2018, he was ranked by analysts as having the top tools. So far, he has lived up to the hype. The top tool is power. With a filled out frame, 2021 was a breakout power year mostly for A level San Jose. Video of his 2021 performance put together by Sean Bialaszek shows Luciano spraying home runs to all fields with the kind of easy power you see from the top hitters in the game.
The 36 games for A+ Eugene were a bit of faceplant, but it was a late season promotion and Luciano was the youngest player in the league. His numbers recovered somewhat for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the AFL and he was likely one of the youngest players in that league too.
He's slipped a bit in Fangraphs overall prospect rankings, mainly due to a concern about whether he can remain as shortstop. Apparently the rap is with throwing accuracy, not arm strength. Giants Farm Director, Kyle Haines, was less specific but also voiced concerns. "He's not going to be Brandon Crawford. I don't see that." If Luciano has to move off SS, it obviously affects his future value in prospect rankings, but the bat looks like it should easily play anywhere on the field. I think we are talking 35-40 HR/year over multiple seasons.
Giants might get stuck with Aeverson Arteaga, 19 next month, at SS. He doesn't have Luciano's bat but he's the real thing with the glove.
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to wait and see about the highly touted 17-yo SS Ryan Reckley.
The Giants have build some serious organizational depth at multiple positions, particularly the premium positions. After the 2021 draft, the pitching depth is catching up too.
DeleteHopefully the Giants young coaching staff can do some arm accuracy whispering and keep this kid at SS. Be a huge advantage at that premium spot, especially with guys like Trea Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr in the division for the foreseeable future. Another disadvantage of the lockout is that he will not get as many reps with the MLB staff in a shortened Spring Training, and if I'm not mistaken I don't think he can go to minor league camp due to being on the 40 man? Please let me know.
ReplyDeleteAs a side note MLB Pipeline just put out a list of the best defensive player in each MLB teams system. They also put out a All Minor League Defensive team - Giants player was Casey Schmitt and he made 1st team all minors defense. That's kinda cool.
Pretty sure Marco Luciano is not on the 40 man roster. The prospects affected by that bit of lockout stupidity would be Heliot Ramos, Joey Bart, Sean Hjelle and Randy Rodriguez.
DeleteAh yes he isn't on there, thanks for that insight. That's a great point that Bart is really getting the short end of the stick here. Ramos, Hjelle, and Rodriguez could all get periods in the Bigs this year too.
DeleteThanks for the annual list Dr B. Enjoyed all your takes.
ReplyDeleteThank you for reading and commenting.
DeleteAn interesting side note. As rankings go, Arteaga was not ranked in the top 30 of international prospects by MLB.com in 2019. He's obviously boosted his status since. His power potential, especially as he fills out, is intriguing, especially given that he's expected to stick at shortstop. Unlike Velasquez, he swings from the right side only.
DeleteArteaga definitely surprised with his power display but I think it remains to be seen if it holds. It's pretty much a given he's not gonna ISO over .200 so the question will be how much regression will we see. I'd be surprised if he ends up having significantly more power than Ehire Adrianza.
DeleteRe. Arteaga vs Adrianza: Not sure how you come to that conclusion. For one thing, Arteaga's GB/FB was 0.87 while Adrianza ran between 1.30 and 1.50 most of his minor league career. That might portend a power difference. Granted, we noted that the Giants Arizona complex is a bit of a wind tunnel, but Arteaga hit 9 HR's there whereas Adrianza has never hit more than 6 in a season anywhere.
DeleteTo be honest, I never thought Adrianza would have this long a career in the majors and he actually exceeded my expectations of his power output. Aside from a strong 2011, he had hardly shown that he could be decent for glove-first backup infielder. But he's put up ISO seasons of .128, .144, and .155. If Arteaga can even match that I'd say it'd be a pleasant surprise. As we all know, even to have a career to Adrianza is really hard and is an achievement of the player and also player development.
DeleteMaybe I will do a prospect retrospective on Adrianza. Yes, he has had an under-the-radar good MLB career that's returned a total of 2.7 fWAR which averages about 1.1 per 600 PA's and enabled him to make approximately $8 M over a 9 season MLB career. I was really high on him as a prospect at one point because he had a solid walk rate, Low K rate, over 30 SB's one season and his frame looked like it had room to fill out. Unfortunately the speed disappeared and the power never developed. I'm pretty sure back in those days the coaches told him to slap at the ball and put it on the ground to take advantage of the speed. The current Giants regime would not teach or encourage that approach.
DeleteAnother SS prospect to follow is Diego Velasquez, who was ranked 22nd by MLB.com on its list of international prospects the year he was signed. He's a switch-hitter and still slight of build at age 18. He hasn't put up numbers comparable to Arteaga's, but it'll be a point of interest to see how they both develop on a similar timeline. It's increasingly likely that the organization's reinvigorated development side will result in a more fruitful harvest in the not too distant future.
ReplyDeleteLuciano, Arteaga, Velasquez, & Reckley.....this should be fun!
DeleteAdd Javier Francisco, age 19, to the mix. His claim to fame so far has been that he trained with Fernando Tatis, Sr., who compared him favorably to his own son. The Giants have an interesting stable of colts at the shortstop position. Glad for their emphasis on the international scene, especially if they're able to scout out viable prospects lower in the rankings.
DeleteDon’t think the Giants have ever had a similar collection of young shortstop prospects at the same like the present one. Of course, time will tell whether they or any will fulfill fulfill their potential and force their way to the majors. Mildly reminiscent of Speier, LeMaster, and Clayton, all first-round picks, who had varying degrees of success with the Giants at different times. Don’t think LeMaster was deserving of all the derision that came his way.
DeleteMost “experts” seem to think Luciano, with his projected physical growth will likely have to move off the position. The other prospects don’t have his power potential (few do) but are generally seen as being more athletically suited and possessing the range expected of a shortstop. Having a role model like Crawford, who’s surprisingly playing at an elite level later in his career, is a boon, to say the least.
I strongly suspect that the idea of teenage shortstops and centerfielders "outgrowing" their position is a total myth. Gaining 10 pounds of muscle doesn't make you slower and less athletic in the field--plenty of studies show that gaining muscle (within reason) increases an athlete's explosiveness.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you all think?