One day after stirring up the fire in the Hot Stove with the blockbuster trade for Blake Snell, the Padres kept right on dealing signing Ha-Seong Kim IF, a very talented infielder from the KBO, and then swung a trade for Yu Darvish RHP in a move to further bolster their rotation.
The deal for Kim is 4 years/$25 M with an additional $5 M going to his former team in a posting fee. Kim has mostly played SS in the KBO but is believed to be talented at multiple defensive positions. Most analysts think he will start at 2B for the Padres or else fill a "super-utility" role. Over the last 2 KBO seasons, Kim has slashed a .307/.393/.500 line with 49 HR and 56 SB's in 1247 PA. Kim hits RH while Jake Cronenworth, they guy he is seeming to displace at 2B is a LH batter who slashed .285/.354/.477 himself, so the Padres have some serious juggling to do. Gotta think Kim will hit leadoff in the Padres lineup.
The deal for Yu Darvish is interesting in that the Padres send Zach Davies RHP the other way along with 4 second tier prospects. Darvish has a far stronger K/9 than Davies but Davies is a savvy pitchability guy who racks up Quality Starts and keeps his team in games. Davies career ERA is only a few ticks higher at 3.79 to 3,47 for Darvish and while Darvish had a spectacular 2.01 in 2020, Davies was not shabby at 2.79. So the Padres may not be getting as much of an upgrade as most people seem to think and the still might need to add a SP before the Hot Stove embers die out. The Padres also acquired Darvish' personal catcher from the Cubs in Victor Caratini.
Not much to talk about from the Cubs end. They made it clear they are rebuilding and looking to shed payroll while collecting minor league talent in volume.
Overall, the Padres are a better team than they were 3 days ago, and they were already very good. They did pay a big price for that upgrade, but the probably don't care as they appear to have locked in a seriously contending roster for the next 3 seasons.
Gotta give SD credit — they're going right at LA.
ReplyDeleteIf better pitching can win head-to-head series, whether or not LA's streak of division championships is broken, they still have to face off against their neighbors with a slight home field advantage.
Not so great for SF but the division will be exciting. And the Giants seem to go harder after the Dodgers than against the Padres.
The real question is: like waiting for the bride to show up at the alter, will there be a season?
At the rate the vaccines are rolling out, we may very well not have a 2021 season. We need to step it up.
DeleteIt's questionable trade for Cubs since they made the playoffs last year then trade their ace? FZ should stay the course build up farm and modest upgrades. How about signing SP like Sugano and Paxton, and Archie Bradley for pen. I'm wondering if FZ is setting up to strike free agency next offseason? Per cots contracts their 2021 payroll commits are currently $138 mil while 2022 is only $25 mil, wow. Also some of their good prospects like Bart, Ramos, Bishop have ETAs between 2021 - 2022. 2022 free agent class has a chance to be historic which might include players like Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Frankie Lindor, Trevor Story, Cory Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and others. I'm sure some will sign extensions with current team but not all. FZ is doing a good job acquiring under the radar talent, building up farm, while waiting for their untradable contracts to expire in 2021. 2022 may be the big year that FZ the Giants dominate the off-season.
ReplyDeleteSugano, Paxton and Bradley would complete a very nice offseason for FZ, IMO.
DeleteIf this offseason goes as it looks like it will, there will be no Paxton's or Bradley's coming here. There hasn't been any indication that any big or even medium moves will be made and with the Padres getting better it would make sense to do less than more this offseason. The questions for this team and FZ's success then become the following;
Delete1. Will there be enough FA's next offseason at the right positions to make a difference?
2. Will FZ finally do something he has never done before in spending big money on FA's?
3. Will FZ pull off a trade for star players with some of the equity he has built up in the minor leagues?
4. Will any of FZ's acquisitions contribute at the major league level over the next 2-3 years?
Everyone seems to be judging FZ's performance on him lowering the payroll and having a good farm system. The payroll was going to be lowered either way in time so not sure what exactly he has accomplished there other than not spending money but he has in fact built a top 10 farm system. Most of those players were drafted by Evans/Sabes and matured naturally over the last few years but let's give FZ credit in adding players as well and not trading away top prospects that could be stars.
Regardless of how good the farm system is, the true value of a farm is really only based on 2 things. Can you trade prospects for proven Major Leaguers or can you develop them into valuable pieces to your MLB roster. IMO, FZ has until 2023 to figure this out. Not much he has done so far has proven to be the start of a core for this team so he will need to start seeing more success from some of his acquisitions or be able to pull off a few trades with some of the prospects he has accumulated. Having a good farm and 5 losing seasons which is very likely at the end of 2023 is not enough in my opinion to keep him around.
I am starting the clock on his time in SF. If we haven't made the playoffs with a strong core for the foreseeable future after 2023 then he has failed in my opinion. He will also need to have his fingerprints on at least half of the team at that point. If the core is Bart, Luciano, Ramos, Toribio, Corry, Hjelle, Pomares, and Matos and all of FZ's guys are still farting around in the minors then that's a fail too.
Gazing into the future is always tricky but so far FZ has been predictable and nothing he has done has shown this team will overtake LA or SD in the next 5 years. We were promised by Giants ownership a competitive roster and that they would never "rebuild" but if it hasn't worked after 5 years of FZ running things, I think I am justified in saying get rid of the bum.
It's probably too early to write off this offseason. Yes, the Padres have been hyperactive, but almost nobody else has. It's quite possible there will be some very nice bargains later as FZ lets the market come to him.
DeleteI would not hold FZ to any strict criteria at the 5 year mark. I mean, if the Giants had not been patient with Sabes, we would not have gotten that great run in the first half of the 2010's. I do want to see signs of significant organizational progress each year and ideally serious contention by 2023.
According to Heyman, 86 percent of MLB free agents remain unsigned. Market is very slow. I'm just encouraged by the progress the Giants showed based on the won/loss record in 2020. The team finished a combined 50 games under 500 in 2017 and 2018 with a bloated payroll. FZ deserves credit for fielding a competitive team while waiting for several big contracts to come off the books. FZ will have money to spend next off-season either on free agents or bringing back players like Posey as a bridge to Joey Bart, and maybe Crawford as a bridge to Luciano as SS. The Giants have a lot of good but very young prospects that might be a couple years from coming up, so I'm willing to be patient with the team building process. When veterans like Longoria have nice things to say about the youngsters at the training site last year, I take it as a good sign.
ReplyDeleteThe future looks good OFF the mound even if Yaz is gone before the Next Generation arrives.
ReplyDeleteRelievers come and go, but the Giants' recent WS success has been bolstered by the SP draft of SPs.
Future success will not mirror past success because there is not the same SPs in the system.
Perhaps it's early to start adding SP talent by trade or FA, but no matter how good the 2023 and on position player cast is, the SF starting pitchers don't represent a sustained winner.
Other than Harrison becoming a Bumgarner, the home grown SP studs have not been drafted.
If the coming position players fill the lineup with adequate RP pickups, the next dominant SP role will come from trades and FAs.
Maybe not this year or next, but SP talent must be added to complement the position players in the system.
Can FZ fill the holes?
There is evidence that the overall talent level in MLB has risen significantly in the last decade. It's probably no longer good enough to have only dominant hitting or pitching. You need both. Agree FZ will eventually have to address pitching with more than 1 year reclamation contracts.
DeleteRumor has it MLB is proposing a short season (100-120 games) beginning in very late Spring.
ReplyDeleteOr Summer. Prorate salaries or cap them.
MLBPA says 162 games. Full pay.
Sounds like "negotiations" have begun.
Except the sides don't have a common language or capable translators or desire to listen.
Owners don't see how they can make money without fans — some can survive on regional TV and social distanced fans, but the profit comes from butts in the seats.
Some teams like San Diego and NY Mets are rolling the dice, because they're ready to win NOW. The Dodgers and Yankees will go along, they are established.
This off season the 2 best AAV contracts are those who accepted their QOs.
James McCann has the best contract and the Mets and the Padres are serious.
The Cleveland Baseball Club has bailed.
Mostly it's wait-and-see: players looking for contracts their agents say they can get and the teams waiting to see if it will be 2020 deja-vu all over again.
How can a good season come out of this mess?
And close to home, how will the Giants who almost backed into 2020 contention without their Best Player (or players if Bum is included) get their future — the guys that are supposed to make 2023 and later bright — enough At Bats and Innings Pitched to develop into Stars?
It's Complete No-Win for the players — no play-no pay — and Complete Idiocy for the Owners — Cash, Assets, Opportunity, Present, Future dissolve.
Idle ability dissipates, idle assets dissolve.
Rodney King had it right: We all can get along. I mean, we’re all stuck here for a while. Let’s try to work it out. Let’s try to beat it. Let’s try to beat it. Let’s try to work it out.
Or not?
You speak the truth. Everyone should be very worried about the state of baseball for a variety of reasons. Manfred and Tony Clarke seem like the worst possible people to have the fate of baseball in their hands. Then you have almost every team trying to tank in one form or another in the hopes that they can accumulate more cheap talent then the rest.
DeleteFront offices and owners are clearly collaborating to keep salaries down and the result is hurting the game and losing fans. Players are looking at playing oversees as an option more than ever and when a pitcher supposedly as good as Sugano basically says no thanks to the MLB that should be a red flag. Tommy Lasorda is rolling over in his grave right now.
One could argue that Farhan is the face of the new state of baseball being in a large market and behaving like a team from Florida. He has sold most fans from what I can tell on building a consistent winner in a laboratory based on spreadsheets, scientific analysis, and player development while the competition is pulling of good old trades for proven players. The Giants could have easily pulled off a trade for Lindor and Carrasco and still kept most of the prospects but my guess is that Farhan doesn't plan on spending the money it would take to keep a guy like Lindor. It makes sense now that he is gone from the Dodgers they finally spend some money on Mookie.
"The Giants could have easily pulled off a trade for Lindor and Carrasco and still kept most of the prospects..."
DeleteThis is hogwash. There are 28 other teams that did not make that trade as well, and there are a myriad of reasons. Simplification of the challenges of building a team do not break down to "he could have done it easily, but he's just stupid and doesn't want the fans of this city to have a good team, and that's the whole story."