The FZ era Giants have had a remarkable string of success with signing down-on-their-luck pitchers to modest 1 year contracts, getting bounceback performances while turning it all into a bigger payday for the pitcher the following season. The latest bid for such a turnaround is Anthony DeSclafani RHP. He is coming off a wretched 2020 campaign after a solid prior track record. Let's first look at a capsule profile of the Giants new pitcher:
Anthony DeSclafani RHP. DOB: 4/18/1990. 6'1", 195 lbs.
2019(Reds): 9-9, 3.89, 166.2 IP, 9.02 K/9, 2.65 BB/9.
2020(Reds): 1-2, 7.22, 33.2 IP, 6.68 K/9, 4.28 BB/9.
Career: 37-39, 4.29, 656.1 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.
2021(Steamer Projection): 9-10, 4.46, 163 IP, 7.90 K/9, 2.83 BB/9.
What's interesting about DeSclafani's Pitch Type list on Fangraphs is his FB velocity has gone up every year starting in 2014: 93.5, 93.7, 93.8, 94.1, 94.9, 95.2(his cutter is a tick slower which explains his lower total FB velocity than his main FB velocity).
So why was DeSclafani's 2020 season such a disaster? Sample size? Certainly his K/9 and BB/9 suggest he lost control of the strike zone but Eno Sarris, in a tweet reproduced on MCC, points out that both his slider and curveball flattened out in 2020, the slider more than the curve. This may have made them more hittable within the strike zone forcing him to move them out of the zone to try for swing-and-miss pitches and thus the loss of command.
Fixing Anthony DeSclafani seems to be a fairly straightforward project for the Giants cadre of coaches: Maintain FB velocity while getting back the depth on the breaking pitches which should enable him to have more confidence in throwing them for strikes and harder for batters to lay off pitches that dive out of the zone.
I am totally down with this signing. $6 M for one year is not zero risk but it is extremely low with a reasonable chance he turns in a Kevin Gausman 2020 type performance. If FZ signs a couple more contracts like this along with a couple of minor league contract dumpster dives, I'll consider it a successful offseason.
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Speaking of minor league dumpster dives....word is Andrew Suarez LHP is close to signing a contract with a KBO team. Since Suarez is not a FA, the Giants would get some compensation in return.
Happy Holidays DrB! Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteI am okay with this deal, I just don't like that he seems to be planning on running the Giants the way he ran LA: signing a bunch of maybe pitchers, and not doing all that much to develop pitching internally. I like that he has pitching coaches like Matt Daniels and Brian Bannister coming in and being pitch doctors, much like Tidrow was doing before. And I can see that picking up pitchers who have skills but for whatever reasons are free agents can be a good way of creating a good rotation, but I really believe in pitching as the key to winning championships regularly.
The dynasty showed why Farhan needs to focus more on pitching. The Giants won the three on the backs of the three guys developed: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner. There's maybe one championship with one of them (Bumgarner in 2014 exemplified the best chance; Cainer and Timmy couldn't do it in 2019). When you develop them, you have that inventory and talent level; when you go fishing, you don't go back to square one, necessarily, but you also risk that the guy sign ends up like Pomeranz, instead of Gausman, killing your chances that year.
I like to use the Twins experience with Liriano as a good example of how poor Zaidi's strategy is, as long as he is not focused on developing pitching (both first round picks have been hitters so far, also second round too; only good thing was picking up HS Harrison). Liriano (and Lincecum and Cain) shows the danger of relying on any one pitcher to be the top of the rotation. Lirano's injuries and uneven performances cost the Twins the best years of Mauer's and Morneau's careers, because without his top of rotation performance, they were screwed. It also shows the danger of trying to find top of rotation starting pitching by signing a bunch of question marks, like Pomeranz, you end up with a reliever, not a starting pitcher.
Developing them is a danger too, hence you need to be working it by every angle, through development, good free agent signings, question mark free agent signings like this one, Japanese IFA, Latin American IFA. The more, the better.
The trend toward prioritizing hitting over pitching in the draft started long before FZ took over. Here are the Giants top picks starting in 2016 3 years before FZ's first draft:
Delete2016: Bryan Reynolds, Heath Quinn
2017: Heliot Ramos, Jacob Gonzalez
2018: Joey Bart, Sean Hjelle
That's 5 of 6 top 2 picks hitters over the last 3 years of the Evans regime.
I believe you have to take the best players available at the top of the draft. Our friend, Covechatter, proved the draft demographic which produces the best value is college hitting and it's not particularly close. Sabes had a great run drafting pitchers in the late 2000's but far less success before and after. So, yeah, it worked out great once, but the game has changed a lot and we now see more teams winning it all with dominant hitting.
Oh, an I think it would be great if FZ had the same type of success with the Giants he had in LA.
I like this signing. DeSclafani has long seemed like a guy who has another level in him but has never quite been able to reach it. Hopefully the Giants coaching staff and favorable pitching environs can help him to get over the hump. The Giants might be building a reputation as a pitchers' halfway house- "come here to rebuild your career and then move on to bigger and better things." That might be a double edged sword. Success begats success and the Giants might start to attract more pitchers who revive their careers here during their brief stay. Long term contracts to pitchers are a very risky investment, especially for pitchers who have spotty records and "find themselves" one season. So it behooves the Giants to carefully analyze their rehab successes and to only keep those that are very likely to remain long term front end rotation pieces. But those successful coaching practices can be put into place throughout the organization to bolster their pitching pipeline. I like what the front office has been able to do with the offense and we may be seeing the start of the turnaround with the pitching too. There has been grumbling on this site about Farhan not making any really big moves, but I do think there will be some in the future when the next wave of young players start establishing themselves and what is needed is that one or two big pieces to complete the puzzle.
ReplyDeleteGiants WERE incredible picking pitchers back in their golden days - not just Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgarner but the 2010 WS champs' TOP 6 pitchers (by bWAR) were drafted by SF.
ReplyDeleteFailing to get another starter by draft (Wheeler might have been "the one" but he was gone and missed 2016 with TJ anyway), they made 2 good FA SP signings but the pen whiffed - even with 6 draftees in the pen they lacked THE ONE there.
They didn't quit trying with Top 3 picks going to Wheeler, Bickford, Suarez, Crick, Stratton, Beede, & Corry in the following years plus Blanch, Webb, & Coonrod in later rounds. In fact, after Joey Bart in 2018, 11 of the next 16 picks were pitchers!
But mostly picks have been swing and miss from the wrong direction.
Giants hired former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges in 2019 as national cross checker. Braves drafted good young pitchers like Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright during his time. Last time I looked Braves are loaded with top pitching prospects. Maybe he'll help with the talent evaluations of young pitchers.
ReplyDeleteDesciafani will be paid 1/2 his salary $3 mil in 2021 and $3 mil with incentives in 2022 per B. Nightengale. Not sure how Desciafani benefits having 1/2 his salary deferred, but maybe the Giants 2021 payroll might be tight since they don't know if fans will be allowed to attend games ywt
ReplyDeleteI don't think it benefits DeSclafini except his total payout in this arrangement is almost certainly more than he would have gotten in a straight 1 year deal. On the Giants side, they have a whole ship-ton of money coming off the books after 2021, plus hope to be coming off a more normal revenue season.
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