Scouting The Hot Stove: International Free Agents and a Non-Tender Candidate

Hey team!  Hope everybody had a happy and safe Thanksgiving.  Not much action around the Hot Stove since Kevin Gausman accepted his Qualifying Offer.   Talk of replacing that with a negotiated long term deal has died down and it's looking like KG will pitch for his $18.9 M payday and enter free agency again next year without the QO.

Meanwhile, let's take a look at a couple of emerging options on the international market as two Japanese pitching stars take the posting plunge.  With Gausman secured, I expect FZ to mostly sit back and let the rest of the market come to him, but Japanese pitchers that come through the posting system have proven to be solid, if unspectacular values over the years.  I expect FZ to at least kick the tires on both of these players.

Kohei Arihara RHP.  28 yo.  6'2", 210 lbs.  

2019:  2.46, 164.1 IP, 161 K, 40 BB.

2020:  3.46, 137.2 IP, 106 K, 30 BB.  

Sturdily built RHP with a strong lower half who looks like he can be a workhorse.  On video, looks like a bigger version of Kenta Maeda who will succeed with solid command of several pitches and changing speeds to keep hitters off balance.

Tomayuki Sugano RHP.  31 yo. 6'1", 185 lbs.

2020:  1.97, 137.1 IP, 131 K, 25 B.  

Ace pitcher in the Nippon league.  Coming off a stronger season than Arihara but 3 years older.  Similar profile.  Delivers from a lower arm angle than Arihara.  

For whatever reason, the Giants have never been a significant factor in the Asian market.  Personally I think it's about time FZ did something about that.  I could see either one or both of these pitchers helping the Giants a lot and being a solid investment.

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The Non-Tender deadline is expected to dump a large cohort of additional free agents on the market.  That's an area where FZ might be lurking to grab some upside potential.  One name I find intriguing is Carlos Rodon LHP, who fits the profile of a former elite prospect who has seen their value drop due to injures and/or ineffectiveness.  If you recall, Rodon was a #3 overall draft pick by the White Sox on 2014.  Since making his MLB debut in 2015, he has seen his ERA rise every season:  3.75, 4.04, 4.15, 4.18, 5.19, 8.22.   It is very unlikely the White Sox will tender him a contract with an estimated arbitration value of over $ 4 M.  Two reasons he may be a bounceback candidate with some fresh coaches and new scenery, especially in Oracle Park and the NL West:  1.  His FIP's for the past two seasons are considerable better than his ERA at 3.62 and 4.89 respectively.  2.  His average FB velocity was still a very respectable 92.9 last season.  

He would definitely be worth a low level MLB contract or a MILB contract with a spring training invitation.  Between the coaching staff and Oracle Park, the Giants are a destination team for pitchers looking to rebuild they market value.

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Who do you have on your Hot Stove radar?

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Minor League Free Agents And Reset 40-Man Roster

 The Giants made some minor league free agent signings this week.  Let's get to know them a bit better:

Sam Long LHP.  DOB:  7/8/1995.  6'0", 180 lbs.  

2019 A(White Sox):  8-5, 97.0 IP, 10.39 K/9, 2.60 BB/9.

Another in a long line of LHP signings by FZ.  Long had a distinguished college career at Sacramento St and was drafted in round 18 of the 2016 draft by the Rays.  He put up excellent numbers in 2019 but at a low level for his age.  As with most minor leaguers now, we have no recent data to analyze.  Long is assigned to the AAA Sacramento roster.  

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Jason Krizan OF.  DOB:  6/28/1989.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.

2019 AA(Mets):  .257/.335/.443, 22 2B, 12 HR, 10.4 BB%, 9.8 K%, 367 PA.

2019 AAA(Mets):  .365/.467/.603, 9 2B, 2 HR, 15.8 BB%, 11.8 K%, 76 PA.

Krizan is a grizzled minor league veteran who was drafted in round 8, 2011 by the Tigers.  He has spent parts of 5 seasons in AAA not counting 2020.

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Daniel Alvarez RHP.  DOB:  6/28/1996.  6'2", 190 lbs.  

2019 AA(Yankees):  7-2, 2.31, 58.1 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 21 Saves.

Alvarez was an IFA signed out of Venezuela by the Yankees and made is pro debut way back in 2014, but is still just 24 yo.  He put up nice numbers as the Closer for the AA Trenton Thunder in 2019.

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Andy Sugilio OF/3B/SS.  DOB:  10/26/1996.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

2019  A+(Reds):  .294/.331/.360, 11 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 23 SB, 485 PA.

Thin, weak hitting OF whose speed is comped to Billy Hamilton.  Some analysts think he could turn his career around with a total revamping of his swing.  If so, the Giants coaching and development staff seems like the ticket.  Gotta say, FZ seems to have a fascination with top-end speed at the fringes of his roster building strategy.

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There were many new minor league free agents created yesterday as teams approached the deadline for protecting minor leaguers eligible for the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to the 40 man roster.  No big surprises for the Giants as they dropped Chris Shaw 1B/OF, Aramis Garcia C and Jordan Humphreys RHP.  In case you are wondering who Jordan Humphreys is, he was acquired from the Mets for OF Billy Hamilton.  

These moves plus 2 open roster spots allowed the Giants to add Alexander Canario OF, Kervin Castro RHP, Camilo Doval RHP and Gregory Santos RHP to the 4 man roster as well as Jason Vosler IF who had previously agreed to a MLB contract.  The main surprise here is keeping Kervin Castro over Tyler Cyr RHP as Cyr seems much closer to helping at the MLB level.  

Hot Stove Update: Drew Smyly Moves On And Up

Giants fans who were hoping to keep both Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly for 2021 got a shock today when the Braves signed Smyly for 1 yr/$11 M.  This is a very nice raise for Smyly who made $4 M last year and more than doubles MLBTR's prediction of a 1 yr/$5 M free agent contract which seemed very low to me considering how well he pitched in 2020.  On the other hand, he has an extensive injury history and 2020 was not exception as his missed significant time with a finger strain and pitched only 26+ innings.  Smyly was reportedly seeking a 3 yr/$30 M deal but with a veritable tidal wave of non-tenders looming, apparently decided to grab the generous 1 year offer from the Braves while it was still on the table.

So far in the current free agency cycle, teams seem to be more willing to overpay on 1 year deals than take the risk of a multi-year deal, at least for pitchers.  Smyly becomes the third free agent pitcher to sign a 1 year contract for significantly more than MLBTR's prediction after Robbie Ray signed with the Blue Jays for 1 yr/$8 M and Kevin Gausman accepted a 1 yr/$18.9 M qualifying offer contract from the Giants(Gausman and the Giants may still negotiate an extension at a lower AAV).  

Alex P of NBC Bay Area points out that the Giants and Oracle Park have become a destination for pitchers looking to build value out of a 1 year contract after Drew Pomeranz, Gausman and now Smyly parlayed modest 1 year contracts into substantial raises in free agency.  There are already a large number of free agent pitchers who would seem likely to benefit from a deal like that and Fangraphs is projecting a "deluge" of coming non-tenders via the arbitration process.  I am sure FZ is pouring over secondary stats PitchFx data as I write this.  Churn on!

Hot Stove Update: Kevin Gausman Accepts Giants Qualifying Offer

Kevin Gausman RHP.   DOB:  1/6/1991.  6'3", 190 lbs. 

2020:  3-3, 3.62, 59.2 IP, 11.92 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 3.09 FIP.

Kevin Gausman accepted the Giants Qualifying Offer and is under contract for 2021 for $18.9 M.  While that is a large number, Gausman's numbers in 2020 put him in the top 15 most valuable pitchers in all of MLB so you knew he was going to get a large raise in free agency from his $9 M last season.  $18.9 M is not that far off from what Gausman could expect to get in AAV even in a multi-year FA contract.  FZ was starting the offseason without one reliable SP.  If he is serious about believing the Giants can contend for the postseason in 2021, he had to get a frontline SP and Kevin Gausman was always the surest target for that role.  The one year contract does not preclude the two sides from continuing to work on a longer contract.  While Gausman would logically want the security of a longer contract and the Giants might want a slightly lower AAV, this is a great deal for both sides, as is.  

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Since I am writing a post anyway, the Giants signed Silvino Bracho RHP to a minor league contract.  Bracho was released by the D'Backs after pitching just one inning in 2020, but he posted a 3.19 ERA in 31 IP as recently as 2018.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Jason Vosler

One of Farhan Zaidi's stated priorities for the offseason is finding a lefty hitting third baseman to essentially platoon with Evan Longoria.  Yesterday, he turned to The Churn to sign a player who fits that description.  If you are hoping for a clone of Max Muncy, you might have found your guy in Jason Vosler.

Jason Vosler  DOB:  9/6/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 220 lbs.  

2017 AA(Cubs):  .241/.343/.429, 21 HR, 10.0 BB%, 22.6 K%, 531 PA.

2018: AA(Cubs):  .238/.351/.477, 12 HR, 13.1 BB%, 24.8 K%, 282 PA.

2018:  AAA(Cubs):  .263/.306/.458, 11 HR, 5.2 BB%, 31.3 K%, 252 PA.

2019:  AAA(Padres):  .291/.367/.523, 20 HR, 10/6 BB%, 23.9 K%, 426 PA.

Vosler spent the 2020 season as a member of the Padres player pool.  The Giants signed him to a MLB contract despite a lack of experience at the MLB level although MLB roster spots are often short-lived in The Churn.  He projects to be a classic 3 true outcomes hitter who can play 3B with limited range.  His arm is rated by Fangraphs as his best defensive tool.  

Vosler would not be able to help in the middle infield so does not represent a challenge to Daniel Robertson's roster spot.  If Vosler were to make the 25-man active roster, the Giants would likely carry 3 reserve infielders, Vosler, Daniel Robertson and Wilmer Flores with Darin Ruf and Austin Slater competing for a single reserve OF role(Robertson can also help in the outfield).  

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Mac Williamson filed a lawsuit against Oracle Park, which is a subsidiary of the Giants, for negligence in the placement of the bullpen mounds which contributed to his concussion injury which he states in the suit he is still experiencing symptoms from.  Given multiple public statements by multiple people as well as the reconfiguration of the stadium to move the mounds behind the OF fence, it seems like Mac may have a preponderance of evidence on his side.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Give Gausman A Qualifying Offer

 The Hot Stove is officially lit.  The Giants, as I (sort of) predicted, extended a Qualifying Offer to RHP Kevin Gausman.  The offer is for $18.9 M for one season.  That is a lot of money for a pitcher with mixed past performances, but makes a lot of sense when you consider he made $9 M last year and performed in near-dominant fashion in a shortened season:  3-3, 3.62, 59.2 IP, 16 BB, 79 K.  That performance extended over a 162 game schedule would be a no-brainer for a QO!  

Fangraphs Craig Edwards has Gausman ranked as the #14 FA for 2020-2021 and the #5 ranked pitcher behind Trevor Bauer RHP, Mashahiro Tanaka RHP,  Marcus Stroman RHP and James Paxton LHP with a projected contract of 2 years/$28 M.  While free agent economics is extremely difficult to project in this economy, I think that is way low and Gausman will command a much larger long term deal on the open market, even with the QO!  

Even so, Gausman has publicly said he wants to return to the Giants and particularly wants to play with Buster Posey and the QO certainly signals that the Giants think highly of him to the point of being willing to pay him if he accepts the QO.  Word from the beat writers is both sides are working on a longer term agreement, presumably at a lower AAV which is how I predict this will work out.  Either the QO or a longer term contract appears to be a good deal for both sides with Gausman being the linchpin of rebuilding a decimated starting rotation.

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The Giants really need to bring in at least 4 other staring pitchers this offseason as I don't see how they can count on any one of Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb or Tyler Anderson.  All three need to be competing for a spot rather than being considered established starters.  

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The Giants also reinstated Tyler Beede RHP, Reyes Moronta RHP, Aramis Garcia C and Joey Rickard OF from the 60 day DL.  Rickard was then outrighted to AAA Sacramento.  He is eligible to declare himself a free agent.  Tyler Heineman C and Anthony Banda LHP were also outrighted to Sacramento.  I read a note that Banda has agreed to a minor league contract with the Giants.  These moves leave the Giants with 37 players on their 40 man roster.  

Thoughts on Kevin Cash's Conundrum

 In the 6'th inning of Game 6 of the World Series, Rays Manager Kevin Cash faced a conundrum.  In case you are wondering, a conundrum is defined in the dictionary as a confusing or difficult problem.  I tend to define it as a problem for which solutions produce a new problem which is as difficult or more difficult than the original problem.  Cash's conundrum was what to do about his starting pitcher, Blake Snell, who was about as dominant as possible through the first 5 innings of the game.  

Snell made a first inning 1-0 lead hold up through those 5 innings while allowing just one hit and striking out 9.  He had thrown 73 pitches, well below the usual pitch limit for a SP.  With one out in the 6'th, Snell allowed a single to the 9'th batter in the lineup, Austin Barnes which brought one of the best RH batters in the game, Mookie Betts, to the plate.  Betts had already struck out twice against Snell, so it seemed like a no-brainer for Snell to face Betts again with only 1 runner on at 1B, but those two previous AB's were the problem as now Snell had pitched through the Dodgers lineup twice and was now turning over for a third round.

It is a fact that most pitchers are not nearly as effective when they face batters who have already batted twice against them in the same game.  The Rays, possibly more than any other organization, believe in that data and do not like to allow their pitchers to face batters who have had those two previous plate appearance.  But wait, you say.  Blake Snell is different.  He is their ace pitcher.  He was dominant up to that point.  It's an elimination game.  There were lots of reasons for Cash to see if he could get Mookie Betts out one more time then face the lefty hitting Corey Seager to get the game to the 7'th inning.

Blake Snell is the ace of the Rays staff, but he's no workhorse or innings eater in the mold of Madison Bumgarner to pick just one comparison.  In 108 career Starts, Snell has pitched 556 innings for an average of just over 5.1 innings per Start.  2020 was no different with 50 IP in 11 Starts.  For comparison sake, Bumgarner has averaged well over 6 innings per start over the course of his career.  Snell's failure to go deep into games is very likely due mostly to the Rays pitching philosophy, but do we know what happens when he does go deeper into games?

First of all, Snell does not have a significant L-R split, so Mookie Betts' righthandedness was not a reason to pull Snell.  There is, however, a significant difference when facing batters for the third time in a game.  Here's the breakdown(from B-R):

First Time Through Order:  .205/.280/.312.

Second Time Through Order:  .234/.316/.396.

Third Time Through Order:  .247/.329/.413.

But what about his pitch count which was at 73?  He certainly still had some gas left in the tank, right?  Lets look at his pitch count splits(again from B-R):

1-25:  .221/.288/.341.

26-50:  .209/.291/.354.

50-75:  .215/.307/.349.

76-100:  .255/.329/.401.

Hello!  Note the even more striking deterioration in effectiveness starting with pitch #76.  OK, but this game was different.  Snell was fired up and dealing.  Certainly you put your faith in him to at least face Mookie Betts in a relatively low-leverage situation when he's been so good, so far, right?  

Craig Edwards of Fangraphs addressed this question with some pitch analysis.  The pitch he got AJ Pollock out on to start the inning was a 78 MPH curveball he hung over the middle of the plate.  That pitch was a full 4 MPH lower than is average curveball velocity earlier in the game.  Pollock popped it up for an easy first out.  Snell then threw a 94 MPH FB which Austin Barnes lined into CF for the 1-out single.  94 MPH is still pretty good heat, but Snell had been sitting 96-97 MPH all game.  So, in addition to the pitch count concerns, Kevin Cash was also looking at two pitches which were considerably degraded from Snell's baseline stuff.

To summarize:  1.  At 5.1 IP, Blake Snell was past his average IP/Start.  2.  Snell is significantly less effective when facing batters for the third time in a game.  3.  Snell was close to the pitch count where his effectiveness is statistically significantly diminished.  4.  Snell pitches showed significant deterioration in quality.  Conclusion:  Kevin Cash was justified in removing Blake Snell from the game at that point.

When I started this, I intended to point out that the Dodgers had seen a whole lot of the Rays bullpen already in the series which could have the same effect of familiarity as seeing a starting pitcher 3 times in the same game.  In fact, the expanded rosters allowed the Rays to space out the use of their relievers so the Dodgers were not seeing the same ones game after game.  The Rays relievers just weren't that effective, probably mostly because the Dodgers are just a really good hitting team, so that was Kevin Cash's Conundrum: Does he stick with a SP who appears to be fading fast or does he go to a bullpen that has been on average less than effective all series?  I think reasonable people could argue both sides.