I'm not making any commitment to keep up with Farhan Zaidi's roster churning through the full Hot Stove League season, but this seems like it could be a significant pickup. The Giants claimed LHP Tyler Anderson off waivers from the Rockies. Anderson is a former first round draft pick, #20 overall, in 2011. He's been a decent pitcher for the Rockies, but missed almost all of last season after requiring knee surgery. Before you get too excited about his mid-4 ERA's while pitching half his game in Coors Field, his career splits are much better at home than on the road. He's arbitration eligible and projected by MLBTR to make $2.6 M which is probably why the Rockies cut him loose. Farhan may have no intention of offering him arbitration either, but he'll probably try to strike a deal avoiding arbitration.
In an apparently corresponding move, the Giants designated RHP Kyle Barraclough for assignment. Barraclough is also arbitration eligible and projected to make $2.1 M by MLBTR. There is no way the Giants want to to be on the hook for $2.1 M to Kyle Barraclough or even close to that, so not much of surprise he was let go.
I really like this move. Home-road splits notwithstanding, I think moving from Coors Field to Oracle Park can only help Anderson's numbers. A healthy knee and a tweak or two in his repertoire and I could seem him being a solid rotation member either helping the Giants make the postseason or bringing back a nice prospect or two at the trade deadline. We'll see if he makes it through The Churn.
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Armchair GM: 2020 Big Dollar Energy Rosterbation
OK, team. This is just for fun and is not at all close to what I think the Giants roster will look like on Opening Day 2020. It's just one of many possibilities the Giants could do and can afford to do given their current roster and financial flexibility. Our target is to build a competitive roster and keep the payroll under the CBT threshold of $208 M(first we have to subtract the estimated $17.5 M for the minor league portion of the 40 man roster and Benefits package which puts us at $191.5 M. Salaries will be in AAV for the CBT calculation(rounded to the closest 0.5 M). So, here it is, my Big Dollar Energy Rosterbation roster for 2020:
Lineup:
C Buster Posey- $18.5 M
1B Brandon Belt- $14.5 M(let's see what he can do with Triples Alley moved in).
2B Mauricio Dubon- $0.6 M
3B Evan Longoria- $11 M
SS Brandon Crawford- $12.5 M(Full no-trade clause, not that expensive in AAV, short leash).
LF Alex Dickerson- $1 M(agrees to contract before arbitration deadline).
CF Mike Yastrzemski- $0.6 M
RF Marcel Ozuna- $20 M(5 year FA contract. Can play RF if Triples Alley moved in enough).
Bench:
Steven Vogt- $3 M.
Donovan Solano- $1 M
Drew Robinson- $0.6 M
Joey Rickard- $1 M
Austin Slater- $0.6 M.
Rotation:
Madison Bumgarner- $20 M(4 yr FA contract).
Jeff Samardzjia- $18 M
Johnny Cueto- $21.5 M
Jake Odorizzi- $20 M(4 yr FA contract).
Logan Webb- $0.6 M
Bullpen:
Tony Watson- $3 M(Exercises Player Option).
Drew Pomeranz- $1.5 M(1 year FA)
Tyler Rogers- $0.6 M.
Enderson Franco- $0.6 M
Jandel Gustave- $0.6 M
Shaun Anderson- $0.6 M
Tyler Beede- $0.6 M
Melvin Adon- $0.6 M
Total Payroll in AAV: $173 M.
Left to spend midseason: $18.5 M.
Note: Rosters expand to 26 with at least 13 position players for 2020.
Let's see your Big Dollar Energy Rosterbation roster in the Comments.
Note: This is just for fun. "Flame" comments will not be published.
Lineup:
C Buster Posey- $18.5 M
1B Brandon Belt- $14.5 M(let's see what he can do with Triples Alley moved in).
2B Mauricio Dubon- $0.6 M
3B Evan Longoria- $11 M
SS Brandon Crawford- $12.5 M(Full no-trade clause, not that expensive in AAV, short leash).
LF Alex Dickerson- $1 M(agrees to contract before arbitration deadline).
CF Mike Yastrzemski- $0.6 M
RF Marcel Ozuna- $20 M(5 year FA contract. Can play RF if Triples Alley moved in enough).
Bench:
Steven Vogt- $3 M.
Donovan Solano- $1 M
Drew Robinson- $0.6 M
Joey Rickard- $1 M
Austin Slater- $0.6 M.
Rotation:
Madison Bumgarner- $20 M(4 yr FA contract).
Jeff Samardzjia- $18 M
Johnny Cueto- $21.5 M
Jake Odorizzi- $20 M(4 yr FA contract).
Logan Webb- $0.6 M
Bullpen:
Tony Watson- $3 M(Exercises Player Option).
Drew Pomeranz- $1.5 M(1 year FA)
Tyler Rogers- $0.6 M.
Enderson Franco- $0.6 M
Jandel Gustave- $0.6 M
Shaun Anderson- $0.6 M
Tyler Beede- $0.6 M
Melvin Adon- $0.6 M
Total Payroll in AAV: $173 M.
Left to spend midseason: $18.5 M.
Note: Rosters expand to 26 with at least 13 position players for 2020.
Let's see your Big Dollar Energy Rosterbation roster in the Comments.
Note: This is just for fun. "Flame" comments will not be published.
Monday, October 28, 2019
Scouting the Hot Stove League: Giants Pre-Hot Stove Snapshot
We completed our Giants Depth Chart series which is one way of assessing the Giants current strengths and needs for the Hot Stove season as well as Hot Stove Leagues into the future. The Hot Stove will fire up in earnest as soon as the World Series ends, which could be as soon as tomorrow night, so this will be our tee up for the fun to come. I'm going to approach this in a similar format to the MLBTR breakdowns. Contract information comes from Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll and Tax Tracker. A reminder that there is a significant difference between salary owed for 2020 and the AAV that gets charged against the CBT. Here's the breakdown:
Guaranteed Contracts:
Buster Posey: 2020 Salary- $22, 177, 778. AAV for CBT- $18, 555, 555.
Johnny Cueto: 2020 Salary- $21 M. AAV for CBT- $21,666, 667.
Jeff Samardzija: 2020 Salary- $19, 800, 000. AAV for CBT- $18 M
Brandon Belt: 2020 Salary- $17, 200, 000. AAV for CBT- $14,560, 000.
Brandon Crawford: 2020 Salary- $15, 200, 000. AAV for CBT- $12, 500, 000.
Evan Longoria: 2020 Salary- $15, 166,667. AAV for CBT- $11, 165, 000.
Tony Watson(Player Option): 2020 Salary- $2,500, 000. AAV for CBT- $3,000,000.
*********************************************************************
Total: 2020 Guaranteed Salary- $113, 044, 445. AAV for CBT- $99,447, 222.
Arbitration Eligible(Estimated Salary per MLBTR)(Salary=AAV for CBT):
Kevin Pillar: $9.7 M
Kyle Barraclough: $2.1 M
Alex Dickerson: $1.2 M
Wandy Peralta: $800 K
Joey Rickard: $1.1 M
Donovan Solano: $1.2 M
***********************
Total Estimated Salary for Arbitration Eligibles: $16.1 M
Non-Tender Candidates: Barraclough, Peralta, Pillar.
Doubt Giants will actually offer arbitration to any of these. Any who don't come to terms prior to the deadline will likely be non-tendered.
Free Agents:
Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Pablo Sandoval
Fernando Abad
Steven Vogt
Tony Watson(if he does not exercise his Player Option- see above).
CBT Factors(per Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll and Tax Tracker):
40-Man Players- Minors- $2,250, 000.
Est. Player Benefits- $15 M.
Projected 40-Man CBT Payroll(including 40-man minors and EPB's above; Excluding Estimated Arbitration Salaries)- $116, 697, 222.
CBT Threshold- $208, 000, 000.
Amount Under Threshold- $91, 302, 778(Note: you do not have to subtract Player Benefits and Minor League Salaries from this Amount Under Threshold per Cot's).
Hot Stove Priorities:
1. #1 or #2 SP
2. #3 or #4 SP
3. Closer
4. Upgrade OF offense
5. Upgrade offense at SS and/or 1B(corollary: Dump at least one of the Brandons).
Guaranteed Contracts:
Buster Posey: 2020 Salary- $22, 177, 778. AAV for CBT- $18, 555, 555.
Johnny Cueto: 2020 Salary- $21 M. AAV for CBT- $21,666, 667.
Jeff Samardzija: 2020 Salary- $19, 800, 000. AAV for CBT- $18 M
Brandon Belt: 2020 Salary- $17, 200, 000. AAV for CBT- $14,560, 000.
Brandon Crawford: 2020 Salary- $15, 200, 000. AAV for CBT- $12, 500, 000.
Evan Longoria: 2020 Salary- $15, 166,667. AAV for CBT- $11, 165, 000.
Tony Watson(Player Option): 2020 Salary- $2,500, 000. AAV for CBT- $3,000,000.
*********************************************************************
Total: 2020 Guaranteed Salary- $113, 044, 445. AAV for CBT- $99,447, 222.
Arbitration Eligible(Estimated Salary per MLBTR)(Salary=AAV for CBT):
Kevin Pillar: $9.7 M
Kyle Barraclough: $2.1 M
Alex Dickerson: $1.2 M
Wandy Peralta: $800 K
Joey Rickard: $1.1 M
Donovan Solano: $1.2 M
***********************
Total Estimated Salary for Arbitration Eligibles: $16.1 M
Non-Tender Candidates: Barraclough, Peralta, Pillar.
Doubt Giants will actually offer arbitration to any of these. Any who don't come to terms prior to the deadline will likely be non-tendered.
Free Agents:
Madison Bumgarner
Will Smith
Pablo Sandoval
Fernando Abad
Steven Vogt
Tony Watson(if he does not exercise his Player Option- see above).
CBT Factors(per Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll and Tax Tracker):
40-Man Players- Minors- $2,250, 000.
Est. Player Benefits- $15 M.
Projected 40-Man CBT Payroll(including 40-man minors and EPB's above; Excluding Estimated Arbitration Salaries)- $116, 697, 222.
CBT Threshold- $208, 000, 000.
Amount Under Threshold- $91, 302, 778(Note: you do not have to subtract Player Benefits and Minor League Salaries from this Amount Under Threshold per Cot's).
Hot Stove Priorities:
1. #1 or #2 SP
2. #3 or #4 SP
3. Closer
4. Upgrade OF offense
5. Upgrade offense at SS and/or 1B(corollary: Dump at least one of the Brandons).
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Armchair GM: Should the Giants Give Will Smith A Qualifying Offer?
Another big decision coming right up for Farhan and the Giants braintrust is whether to make a QO to Closer Will Smith. The QO actually went down this year, I think for the first time and is right around $18 M. I looked up the FA contracts signed by Closers over the past 2 years. The closest in AAV is Wade Davis who signed for 3 years with an AAV of $17.3 M. At the time, Davis was considered an elite closer, although cracks were starting to show. If the Rockies had a do-over, I don't think they would sign that contract again but mainly for the length. Other recent AAV's for FA Closers are more in the $10-$13 M range.
Will Smith was arguably the best Closer in baseball last year, but does not have a long track record in the role. Without a QO, his value on the open market would likely fall somewhere around 3/$39 M. A QO is likely to suppress his market value significantly which would make 1/$18 M look quite attractive to him. So, Farhan has to figure if he makes the QO, there is a fairly high probability Smith will accept. I'm guessing Farhan does not want to pay that much for a Closer and probably thinks he can churn one out who will get the job done for a very small fraction of the cost.
Putting all that together, here's my outcome probabilities(rough estimates):
No QO- 60%
QO/Accepted- 20%
QO/Rejected- 20%.
Market alternatives include Cody Allen, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Kintzler and Arodys Vizcaino.
BTW, as a commenter just pointed out in the previous post, teams signing a QO FA no longer lose their top pick but losing second picks was enough to suppress the markets for Dallas Keuchal and Craig Kimbrel last year.
Will Smith was arguably the best Closer in baseball last year, but does not have a long track record in the role. Without a QO, his value on the open market would likely fall somewhere around 3/$39 M. A QO is likely to suppress his market value significantly which would make 1/$18 M look quite attractive to him. So, Farhan has to figure if he makes the QO, there is a fairly high probability Smith will accept. I'm guessing Farhan does not want to pay that much for a Closer and probably thinks he can churn one out who will get the job done for a very small fraction of the cost.
Putting all that together, here's my outcome probabilities(rough estimates):
No QO- 60%
QO/Accepted- 20%
QO/Rejected- 20%.
Market alternatives include Cody Allen, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Kintzler and Arodys Vizcaino.
BTW, as a commenter just pointed out in the previous post, teams signing a QO FA no longer lose their top pick but losing second picks was enough to suppress the markets for Dallas Keuchal and Craig Kimbrel last year.
Saturday, October 26, 2019
Armchair GM: Should the Giants Re-Sign Madison Bumgarner?
With the World Series heading into its middle or final stages(BTW, baseball has to do something about the pace of games. Last night's game had zero reason to not move right along and it clocked in a well over 4 hours. Ugh!), the moment of truth for the Giants and Madison Bumgarner fast approaches. There are multiple factors at play here which will undoubtedly lead to a chess match between Farhan Zaidi along with Giants management and Madison Bumgarner and his representatives.
I believe I was one of the first to write in the Giants blogosphere that they should trade Bumgarner and get prospect talent back in a preemptive rebuild rather than waiting to sign another big, longterm contract with an aging pitcher with ton of mileage on his arm. Circumstances evolved to cause me to re-evaluate my position including 1. It's now too late to get talent back in return. 2. Bummy had a modest bounceback last year after two years of missing time with injuries. Fortunately, the second of those injuries, the fractured hand, should not be a longterm problem and the infamous shoulder separation seems to have fully resolved. At this point it looks like a decent bet he has a few more seasons left in the tank. 3. While 2 years ago, it appeared he would be wildly overvalued as a free agent, the two injuries, industry trends and the QO may have suppressed his market value to the point of being seriously undervalued.
There are plenty of reasons why both sides want to gauge his market value before agreeing to a new contract so there is close to zero chance he won't reach free agent status. The no brainer is the Giants making a Qualifying Offer. At this point, a 1 year contract for $18 M for a pitcher of his caliber is a sweet deal for the team. The chances of a QO are close to 100%. Now, it's possible Bumgarner and his advisors have estimated his market in the context of a QO, looked at what happened to Dallas Keuchal last year and Hyun-Jin Ryu this year, and he's decided to bet on himself. In this scenario he would accept the QO, hope he stays healthy all season with stats at least as strong as 2019 and be free of the QO weight next offseason. I'll say there is maybe a 10% chance of this outcome.
This brings us to the 90% chance he turns down the QO and goes on the market. Let me pause right here to say the Giants can easily afford whatever Bummy's market turns out to be, now and into the future. Even if we stipulate an absolute salary cap at the CBT threshold, with Mark Melancon's contract off the books they are about $90 M under for 2020. Shark's contract comes off next year, the Brandons, Buster and Johnny Cueto come off after 2021 and Longo comes off after 2022 except for some relatively small buyouts, but books are clear after that. The narrative that the Giants are hamstrung by a bunch of albatross contracts or that they cannot field a competitive team until said albatross contracts have run their course has been grossly blown out of proportion. Not only can the Giants easily afford to sign a free agent contract with Madison Bumgarner, but they can sign him plus Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and still have payroll flexibility going forward!
There are a whole host of business reasons why re-signing Madison Bumgarner is beneficial for the Giants which we won't detail here. Unless his market unexpectedly goes crazy and he commands a Scherzeresque contract, the baseball factors have caught up to the business factors. A 3-5 year contract for $70-100 M would make a lot of sense for both Bummy and the Giants although if that happens, it can't be their only big move of the offseason. Farhan has to stop thinking he's still working for the A's or trying to help the Dodgers get under the CBT threshold and spend money on more help for MadBum.
I believe I was one of the first to write in the Giants blogosphere that they should trade Bumgarner and get prospect talent back in a preemptive rebuild rather than waiting to sign another big, longterm contract with an aging pitcher with ton of mileage on his arm. Circumstances evolved to cause me to re-evaluate my position including 1. It's now too late to get talent back in return. 2. Bummy had a modest bounceback last year after two years of missing time with injuries. Fortunately, the second of those injuries, the fractured hand, should not be a longterm problem and the infamous shoulder separation seems to have fully resolved. At this point it looks like a decent bet he has a few more seasons left in the tank. 3. While 2 years ago, it appeared he would be wildly overvalued as a free agent, the two injuries, industry trends and the QO may have suppressed his market value to the point of being seriously undervalued.
There are plenty of reasons why both sides want to gauge his market value before agreeing to a new contract so there is close to zero chance he won't reach free agent status. The no brainer is the Giants making a Qualifying Offer. At this point, a 1 year contract for $18 M for a pitcher of his caliber is a sweet deal for the team. The chances of a QO are close to 100%. Now, it's possible Bumgarner and his advisors have estimated his market in the context of a QO, looked at what happened to Dallas Keuchal last year and Hyun-Jin Ryu this year, and he's decided to bet on himself. In this scenario he would accept the QO, hope he stays healthy all season with stats at least as strong as 2019 and be free of the QO weight next offseason. I'll say there is maybe a 10% chance of this outcome.
This brings us to the 90% chance he turns down the QO and goes on the market. Let me pause right here to say the Giants can easily afford whatever Bummy's market turns out to be, now and into the future. Even if we stipulate an absolute salary cap at the CBT threshold, with Mark Melancon's contract off the books they are about $90 M under for 2020. Shark's contract comes off next year, the Brandons, Buster and Johnny Cueto come off after 2021 and Longo comes off after 2022 except for some relatively small buyouts, but books are clear after that. The narrative that the Giants are hamstrung by a bunch of albatross contracts or that they cannot field a competitive team until said albatross contracts have run their course has been grossly blown out of proportion. Not only can the Giants easily afford to sign a free agent contract with Madison Bumgarner, but they can sign him plus Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and still have payroll flexibility going forward!
There are a whole host of business reasons why re-signing Madison Bumgarner is beneficial for the Giants which we won't detail here. Unless his market unexpectedly goes crazy and he commands a Scherzeresque contract, the baseball factors have caught up to the business factors. A 3-5 year contract for $70-100 M would make a lot of sense for both Bummy and the Giants although if that happens, it can't be their only big move of the offseason. Farhan has to stop thinking he's still working for the A's or trying to help the Dodgers get under the CBT threshold and spend money on more help for MadBum.
Giants Depth Charts: Closer
We'll finish up with Closer. Other relief roles are just too fluid and sprawling to really do any kind of depth chart so we won't go there. Will Smith is a free agent. Current in-house options to replace him including Shaun Anderson, Jandel Gustave, Enderson Franco, Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Gott and Melvin Adon don't exactly inspire confidence. Much like Madison Bumgarner's situation, it looks like the Giants will either have to find a way to re-sign Will Smith or bring in someone else from outside the organization to fill the role if they want to field a competitive team.
AAA:
Sam Wolff
Tyler Cyr
Chase Johnson
The best Closers are often former SP's who have a SP repertoire of pitches and are able to gain velocity in shorter appearances. On that theory, Chase Johnson might be the best bet here. He closed in college.
AA
Raffi Vizcaino
Rodolfo Martinez
Dylan Davis
Vizcaino fits the former SP profile. Martinez has elite velocity but has never been able to stay healthy. Davis, of course, is a converted OF who could surprise in a RP role.
A+:
Camilo Doval
Jesus Tona
Frank Rubio
Patrick Ruotolo
Solomon Bates
Doval has elite velocity and is working his way up the organizational ladder. Tona is a converted catcher who has thrived in Closer roles. Rubio has a funky delivery but not much velocity. He's likely more of a setup guy. We'll see what Patrick Ruotolo does in 2020 after missing much of 2019. I included Bates because he has the physicality you look for a in a Closer.
A:
Norwith Gudino
Gregory Santos
I'm double listing Gudino and Santos on the SP and Closer depth charts. They are currently being used as SP's but both look like candidates to move to the bullpen by the time they are ready for the majors.
Short Season:
Garrett Cave
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro
Garrett Cave is a hard thrower with control/command issues. Ditto Berroa who is listed on the SP depth chart too. Castro seems like a candidate to move to the bullpen at higher levels. At these levels, you just look for guys who throw hard.
Rookie(AZL)/DSL:
Not seeing much to get excited about amongst pitchers on these rosters.
AAA:
Sam Wolff
Tyler Cyr
Chase Johnson
The best Closers are often former SP's who have a SP repertoire of pitches and are able to gain velocity in shorter appearances. On that theory, Chase Johnson might be the best bet here. He closed in college.
AA
Raffi Vizcaino
Rodolfo Martinez
Dylan Davis
Vizcaino fits the former SP profile. Martinez has elite velocity but has never been able to stay healthy. Davis, of course, is a converted OF who could surprise in a RP role.
A+:
Camilo Doval
Jesus Tona
Frank Rubio
Patrick Ruotolo
Solomon Bates
Doval has elite velocity and is working his way up the organizational ladder. Tona is a converted catcher who has thrived in Closer roles. Rubio has a funky delivery but not much velocity. He's likely more of a setup guy. We'll see what Patrick Ruotolo does in 2020 after missing much of 2019. I included Bates because he has the physicality you look for a in a Closer.
A:
Norwith Gudino
Gregory Santos
I'm double listing Gudino and Santos on the SP and Closer depth charts. They are currently being used as SP's but both look like candidates to move to the bullpen by the time they are ready for the majors.
Short Season:
Garrett Cave
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro
Garrett Cave is a hard thrower with control/command issues. Ditto Berroa who is listed on the SP depth chart too. Castro seems like a candidate to move to the bullpen at higher levels. At these levels, you just look for guys who throw hard.
Rookie(AZL)/DSL:
Not seeing much to get excited about amongst pitchers on these rosters.
Giants Depth Charts: Starting Pitchers
Sorry for the break in posts. I've been crazy busy and had some writer's block. I guess we'll go ahead and finish up the depth charts before branching out into other topics. Starting pitching, which was an overwhelming strength during the run of championships is suddenly very thin. It also feels very strange that Madison Bumgarner, who is a free agent, is not on the depth chart.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Jeff Samardzija
Johnny Cueto
Tyler Beede
Logan Webb
Dereck Rodriguez
I suppose you might count Shaun Anderson, Andrew Suarez, Conner Menez and Burch Smith, but all those guys seem to be more on the reliever track at this point. If the Giants don't re-sign Bummy, their going to have to supplement this rotation with another FA or two or make a trade or two if they want to maintain any semblance of competitiveness in 2020. In other words, their going to have to either pay Bummy or pay someone else.
AAA:
Caleb Baragar
That's it. Just one SP currently listed on the River Cats roster and not a name you expect to see holding down a rotation spot in SF anytime soon. So, help is not on the way!
AA:
Sean Hjelle
Garrett Williams
Hjelle seems promising, but needs to show he's read to dominate higher levels out of spring training. Williams still struggles with control/command.
A+:
Tristan Beck
Jake Wong
Matt Frisbee
Jose Marte
Aaron Phillips
Tristan Beck showed promise after being acquired in the Mark Melancon trade. Jake Wong was a bit disappointing after promotion to SJ. Frisbee was a lower round draft pick who is putting up interesting numbers.
A:
Seth Corry
Norwith Gudino
Blake Rivera
Gregory Santos
Kai-Wei Teng
Keaton Winn
Corry had a breakout season in 2019. Can he keep it going at higher levels? Santos could be a future ace, but needs to stay healthy. Gudino, Rivera, Teng and Winn showed varying degrees of promise in a relatively pitcher-friendly environment.
Short Season
Kervin Castro
Conner Nurse
Caleb Kilian
Jasier Herrera
Bryce Fehmel
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro showed he most in 2019, although I think Kilian might be a sleeper.
Rookie(AZL):
Trevor McDonald
Freddery Paulino
Sonny Vargas
Jesus Gomez
Marco Gonzalez
Juan Sanchez
Nick Morreale
Trevor McDonald got a significant over-slot bonus out of the 11'th round of the 2019 draft. Extremely small pro sample size so far. The DSL graduate lefties struggled a bit in their stateside debuts.
DSL:
None.
Nobody on the DSL Giants pitching staff stood out in 2019 as we saw mostly high scoring games all season.
Overall SP is the thinnest position in the organization, the worst in my memory. The 2019 draft and 2018 international signings did not add much.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Jeff Samardzija
Johnny Cueto
Tyler Beede
Logan Webb
Dereck Rodriguez
I suppose you might count Shaun Anderson, Andrew Suarez, Conner Menez and Burch Smith, but all those guys seem to be more on the reliever track at this point. If the Giants don't re-sign Bummy, their going to have to supplement this rotation with another FA or two or make a trade or two if they want to maintain any semblance of competitiveness in 2020. In other words, their going to have to either pay Bummy or pay someone else.
AAA:
Caleb Baragar
That's it. Just one SP currently listed on the River Cats roster and not a name you expect to see holding down a rotation spot in SF anytime soon. So, help is not on the way!
AA:
Sean Hjelle
Garrett Williams
Hjelle seems promising, but needs to show he's read to dominate higher levels out of spring training. Williams still struggles with control/command.
A+:
Tristan Beck
Jake Wong
Matt Frisbee
Jose Marte
Aaron Phillips
Tristan Beck showed promise after being acquired in the Mark Melancon trade. Jake Wong was a bit disappointing after promotion to SJ. Frisbee was a lower round draft pick who is putting up interesting numbers.
A:
Seth Corry
Norwith Gudino
Blake Rivera
Gregory Santos
Kai-Wei Teng
Keaton Winn
Corry had a breakout season in 2019. Can he keep it going at higher levels? Santos could be a future ace, but needs to stay healthy. Gudino, Rivera, Teng and Winn showed varying degrees of promise in a relatively pitcher-friendly environment.
Short Season
Kervin Castro
Conner Nurse
Caleb Kilian
Jasier Herrera
Bryce Fehmel
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro showed he most in 2019, although I think Kilian might be a sleeper.
Rookie(AZL):
Trevor McDonald
Freddery Paulino
Sonny Vargas
Jesus Gomez
Marco Gonzalez
Juan Sanchez
Nick Morreale
Trevor McDonald got a significant over-slot bonus out of the 11'th round of the 2019 draft. Extremely small pro sample size so far. The DSL graduate lefties struggled a bit in their stateside debuts.
DSL:
None.
Nobody on the DSL Giants pitching staff stood out in 2019 as we saw mostly high scoring games all season.
Overall SP is the thinnest position in the organization, the worst in my memory. The 2019 draft and 2018 international signings did not add much.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
2019 Giants Depth Charts: Right Field
Right field in Oracle Park is a unique defensive challenge as it requires someone with the standard RF arm strength but also enough speed to track down balls in Triples Alley. Remember the catch Grego Blanco made to save Matt Cain's perfect game? I bet you do!
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mike Yastrzemski
Austin Slater
Jaylin Davis
Joe McCarthy
You might want to flip-flop Slater and Davis. The top guy will be the weaker half of a L-R platoon. The strong half is YtY's to lose unless Farhan decides to sell high on him over the winter. Personally, I have mixed feelings about that notion. YtY is great story and kept on producing throughout the season. On the other hand, I can't quite shake the feeling he just had the best season of his career. Is Joe McCarthy a nugget or just more gravel in Farhan's sluice box?
AAA:
None.
AA:
None.
Wouldn't be shocked if Heliot Ramos ended up in RF, though.
A+:
Sandro Fabian
Dalton Combs
Fabian is an interesting prospect. 2020 is a critical year in his development, like close to make-or-break. Dalton Combs is a hitter, but probably more of a 1B type. Definitely won't be covering RF in Oracle Park unless they completely cut off Triples Alley.
A:
Franklin Labour
Mikey Edie
Labour hit for power in 2019. Not sure he has the defensive chops to play RF at higher levels. Mikey Edie has some tools but has never found traction on his career.
Short Season:
Harrison Freed
Any of the CF's on the roster, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario or Jairo Pomares could move over to RF in the future. At this point, Freed is more than just an organizational guy, but not much more.
Rookie(AZL):
George Bell
Bryan Hernandez
A couple of lotto tickets.
DSL:
Robert Gomez
Yohan Polanco
I have no clue about either of these kids!
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mike Yastrzemski
Austin Slater
Jaylin Davis
Joe McCarthy
You might want to flip-flop Slater and Davis. The top guy will be the weaker half of a L-R platoon. The strong half is YtY's to lose unless Farhan decides to sell high on him over the winter. Personally, I have mixed feelings about that notion. YtY is great story and kept on producing throughout the season. On the other hand, I can't quite shake the feeling he just had the best season of his career. Is Joe McCarthy a nugget or just more gravel in Farhan's sluice box?
AAA:
None.
AA:
None.
Wouldn't be shocked if Heliot Ramos ended up in RF, though.
A+:
Sandro Fabian
Dalton Combs
Fabian is an interesting prospect. 2020 is a critical year in his development, like close to make-or-break. Dalton Combs is a hitter, but probably more of a 1B type. Definitely won't be covering RF in Oracle Park unless they completely cut off Triples Alley.
A:
Franklin Labour
Mikey Edie
Labour hit for power in 2019. Not sure he has the defensive chops to play RF at higher levels. Mikey Edie has some tools but has never found traction on his career.
Short Season:
Harrison Freed
Any of the CF's on the roster, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario or Jairo Pomares could move over to RF in the future. At this point, Freed is more than just an organizational guy, but not much more.
Rookie(AZL):
George Bell
Bryan Hernandez
A couple of lotto tickets.
DSL:
Robert Gomez
Yohan Polanco
I have no clue about either of these kids!
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Thoughts on Minor League Reform and Giants Manager Search
We have a request for thoughts on MLB's proposed minor league reform. I agree there is a huge amount of room for improvement in the whole talent acquisition/minor league/player development axis, but as always, the devil is in the details. The proposal, as I understand it, is a radical reorganization of the minor leagues eliminated A- and R+ short season leagues. Camp leagues like the AZL and GCL would remain. The draft would be held later in the summer after the college playoffs are completed. Whole new leagues would be carved out of current ones to create more regionality for organizations. Cities with substandard facilities would be at risk for elimination. The draft would be shortened to around 20 rounds as there would be less need to draft players just to fill rosters. The benefits would be increased regionality, improved facilities and presumably higher pay for players, although jobs would be contracted. There would be a creation of a "Dream League" for undrafted players and minor league free agents which would be some sort of hybrid between affiliated leagues and independent leagues presumably with more support from MLB than indy leagues currently receive.
Comments:
1. The draft needs to be shortened. Some teams already start punting picks at about round 25. Most teams punt picks after round 30.
2. There is a need for more regionality as distances right now are ridiculous and not conducive to player health and development.
3. It is true that many players are currently drafted and signed for no other reason than to fill out rosters, so there is room for consolidation.
4. The trend toward more teaching and applying learned skills and less reliance on simply relying on more innings and more PA's for player development, which I think is a good thing.
5. Most organization currently use AAA more as an extended MLB bench than for player development. It's not clear if reorganization would change this.
Concerns:
1. There are already large gaps in talent and skills between levels which may get worse with reorganization.
2. Elimination of jobs to fund a pay raise seems unnecessary and disingenuous.
3. Converting the Northwest League to full season is going to produce a lot of rainouts in April and May.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants manager search grinds on. Early word was Zaidi planned to interview 7-8 candidates. I think he's already done that but we keep hearing more names added to the list. I honestly don't have much of an opinion about who would make a good manager except this: I think Gabe Kapler would be a big mistake and I am intrigued by Will Venable.
I saw all I need to see of Kapler during a in-game interview in a game against the Giants. After pulling Jake Arrieta from the game, he had what appeared to be a tense discussion in the dugout. When asked about what he said to Arrieta, Kapler responded in a faux drill sergeant voice "I told him he was a warrior and had given everything he had and left it on the field and it was time to let his teammates take if from here" or something to that effect. My reaction was the same as when I heard Bobby Valentine talk on broadcasts, "Sheesh! Can you imagine listening to that every day you go to work?" So, it's a definite no for me on Kapler.
Will Venable might be the perfect mix of new blood and Giants history. He's young, Princeton educated. Has experience in several organizations.....and he's Max and Molly's kid! He has also lived in Japan and the Dominican Republic. I'll assume he is well versed in statistics and how to use them. The next Giants manager is going to be constantly compared to Bruce Bochy which could lead to difficult relationships with the press and fans. What he would have going for him is Kruk and Kuip who absolutely fawned over him every time he came to town with a visiting team. So, I'd be on board with Will Venable. The only downside for me would be how many times I had to listen to Kruk and Kuip go on about "Max and Molly's Kid"!
Comments:
1. The draft needs to be shortened. Some teams already start punting picks at about round 25. Most teams punt picks after round 30.
2. There is a need for more regionality as distances right now are ridiculous and not conducive to player health and development.
3. It is true that many players are currently drafted and signed for no other reason than to fill out rosters, so there is room for consolidation.
4. The trend toward more teaching and applying learned skills and less reliance on simply relying on more innings and more PA's for player development, which I think is a good thing.
5. Most organization currently use AAA more as an extended MLB bench than for player development. It's not clear if reorganization would change this.
Concerns:
1. There are already large gaps in talent and skills between levels which may get worse with reorganization.
2. Elimination of jobs to fund a pay raise seems unnecessary and disingenuous.
3. Converting the Northwest League to full season is going to produce a lot of rainouts in April and May.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants manager search grinds on. Early word was Zaidi planned to interview 7-8 candidates. I think he's already done that but we keep hearing more names added to the list. I honestly don't have much of an opinion about who would make a good manager except this: I think Gabe Kapler would be a big mistake and I am intrigued by Will Venable.
I saw all I need to see of Kapler during a in-game interview in a game against the Giants. After pulling Jake Arrieta from the game, he had what appeared to be a tense discussion in the dugout. When asked about what he said to Arrieta, Kapler responded in a faux drill sergeant voice "I told him he was a warrior and had given everything he had and left it on the field and it was time to let his teammates take if from here" or something to that effect. My reaction was the same as when I heard Bobby Valentine talk on broadcasts, "Sheesh! Can you imagine listening to that every day you go to work?" So, it's a definite no for me on Kapler.
Will Venable might be the perfect mix of new blood and Giants history. He's young, Princeton educated. Has experience in several organizations.....and he's Max and Molly's kid! He has also lived in Japan and the Dominican Republic. I'll assume he is well versed in statistics and how to use them. The next Giants manager is going to be constantly compared to Bruce Bochy which could lead to difficult relationships with the press and fans. What he would have going for him is Kruk and Kuip who absolutely fawned over him every time he came to town with a visiting team. So, I'd be on board with Will Venable. The only downside for me would be how many times I had to listen to Kruk and Kuip go on about "Max and Molly's Kid"!
Sunday, October 20, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Selected Picks From #21
This will be the last installment of the series. Rather than just plow through #21-30, I'll review selected picks we scouted and profiled before the draft just to see how their pro debuts turned out. Again, grades are for fun and not necessarily predictive of future success or failure.
#21 Braves: Braden Shewmake SS. College(Texas A&M).
A: .318/.389/.473, 18 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 201 AB.
AA: .217/.288/.217, 46 AB.
Skipped short season entirely in an aggressive assignment. Solid performance. Hyperaggressive late promotion to AA which did not go so well. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#22 Rays: Greg Jones SS. College(UNC Wilmington).
Short Season: .335/.413/.461, 13 2B, 4 3B, HR, 19 SB, 191 AB.
Strong numbers at an appropriate level although with a lot of K's. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
#23 Rockies: Michael Toglia 1B. College(UCLA).
Short Season: .248/.369/.483, 7 2B, 9 HR, 145 AB.
Switch-hitting power hitter with deceptive athleticism. As you can probably tell, I'm not in love with true outcomes approaches at low levels, but that's Moneyball come of age, the new orthodoxy. It's going to be interesting to follow these guys development and see how it turns out. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#24 Indians: Daniel Espino RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 0-1, 1.98, 13.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K.
Short Season: 0-2, 6.30, 10 IP, 5 BB, 18 K.
Unusually aggressive promotion for a HS pitcher. Maintained dominant K rate in SSS against the older competition. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#29 A's: Logan Davidson SS. College(Clemson).
Short Season: .239/.345/.332, 7 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 205 AB.
More 3 true outcomes without much power. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#31 Dodgers: Michael Busch 2B. College(UNC).
2 levels: .125/.371/.125, 24 AB.
Pro debut season cut short by injury. Grade Incomplete. I think this guy was a defensively challenged 1B/OF/DH in college so the 2B designation is inneresting. Maybe the Dodgers think they are grooming the next Max Muncy?
*********************************************************************************
#33 D'Backs: Brennan Malone RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 1-2, 5.14, 7 IP, 5 BB, 7 K's.
Pitched one inning of Short Season ball. Grade C(SSS)(BTW, I really liked what I saw in pre-draft videos).
*********************************************************************************
#34 D'Backs: Drey Jameson RHP. College(Ball St).
Short Season: 0-0, 6.17, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 12 K.
Small RHP who put up interesting numbers for Ball St. Very small sample here, but the walks are not encouraging. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#35 Marlins: Kameron Misner OF. College(Missouri).
2 Levels: .270/.388/.362, 9 2B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 163 AB.
Intriguing athleticism. Nice plate discipline but no power. Aggressive early promotion to A ball where he got most of his AB's. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#39 Twins: Matt Wallner OF. College(Southern Mississippi).
2 Levels: .258/.357/.452, 21 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 24 BB, 80 K's, 252 AB.
Twins like to draft toolsy HS kids in round 1 and college sluggers in round 2. Nice power here, but K rate is off the charts in Rookie+ league. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#46 Marlins: Nasim Nunez SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .211/.340/.251, 5 2B, 3B, 28 SB, 175 AB.
Defensive HS SS. Bat was always going to be a project. Intriguing SB's. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#49 Reds: Rece Hinds SS. HS.
Rookie+: .000, 8 AB.
Huge power potential. Not sure what happened here. He assigned on June 18 but got only 8 AB's. Injur? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#51 Giants: Logan Wyatt 1B. College(Louisville).
3 Levels: .278/.388/.377, 6 2B, 3 HR, 26 BB, 29 K, 151 AB.
Nice ratios. More power would be nice. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#54 Twins: Matt Cantarino RHP. College(Rice).
2 levels: 1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 8 BB, 31 K.
I might have preferred the Giants draft this college pitcher instead of Wyatt at #51 given how thin pitching is in the organization. Will watch their respective development with interest. Grade B+.
*********************************************************************************
#55 Angels: Kyren Paris SS. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .300/.462/.400, 10 AB.
Extreme tools. Nice spot in the draft to take a shot. Very SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#84 Padres: Hudson Head OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .283/.383/.417, 7 2B, 3 3B, HR, 3 SB, 120 AB.
Signed way above slot. Solid rookie ball debut. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#89 Mets: Matthew Allan RHP. HS.
2 Levels: 1-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 14 K.
Another way above slot sign. Has kind of a Matt Cain feel about him. SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#94 Nationals: Drew Mendoza 3B. College(Florida St).
A: .264/.377/.383, 12 2B, 4 HR, 34 BB, 57 K, 201 AB.
3 true outcomes approach even in college. Aggressive to start him off in A ball, but needs to produce more dingers. Eh, Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#122 D'Backs: Glenallen Hill Jr. SS. HS.
Rookie AZL: .206/.289/.363, 4 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 17 BB, 63 K, 160 AB.
A name of interest to Giants fans. You can see the tools in the numbers, but extreme plate discipline and contact issues. Grade C-.
*********************************************************************************
#128 Rays: Graeme Stinson LHP. College(Duke).
Rookie(GCL): 0-1, 13.50, 0.2 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.
Top ranked college pitcher this time last year. Spectacular stock crash. Injury? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
# 149 Twins: Will Holland SS. College(Auburn).
Rookie+: .192/.299/.376, 7 HR, 8 SB, 125 AB.
Low assignment out of a major college program. Some power and speed but extreme contact issues. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#204 Reds: Eric Yang C. College(UCSB).
Rookie+: .290/.428/.420, 9 2B, 4 HR, 162 AB.
I liked Yang's numbers for UCSB. Thought he was one of the top players in that conference. Placement a bit low and an extreme hitter's league. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
#234 Reds: Quin Cotton OF. College(Grand Canyon).
Rookie+: .283/.376/.409, 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 8 SB, 8 CS, 237 AB.
Stock fell off his junior season. Low placement in an extreme hitter's league. Decent numbers but the speed won't play with 50% CS rate. Grade C+.
#21 Braves: Braden Shewmake SS. College(Texas A&M).
A: .318/.389/.473, 18 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 201 AB.
AA: .217/.288/.217, 46 AB.
Skipped short season entirely in an aggressive assignment. Solid performance. Hyperaggressive late promotion to AA which did not go so well. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#22 Rays: Greg Jones SS. College(UNC Wilmington).
Short Season: .335/.413/.461, 13 2B, 4 3B, HR, 19 SB, 191 AB.
Strong numbers at an appropriate level although with a lot of K's. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
#23 Rockies: Michael Toglia 1B. College(UCLA).
Short Season: .248/.369/.483, 7 2B, 9 HR, 145 AB.
Switch-hitting power hitter with deceptive athleticism. As you can probably tell, I'm not in love with true outcomes approaches at low levels, but that's Moneyball come of age, the new orthodoxy. It's going to be interesting to follow these guys development and see how it turns out. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#24 Indians: Daniel Espino RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 0-1, 1.98, 13.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K.
Short Season: 0-2, 6.30, 10 IP, 5 BB, 18 K.
Unusually aggressive promotion for a HS pitcher. Maintained dominant K rate in SSS against the older competition. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#29 A's: Logan Davidson SS. College(Clemson).
Short Season: .239/.345/.332, 7 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 205 AB.
More 3 true outcomes without much power. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#31 Dodgers: Michael Busch 2B. College(UNC).
2 levels: .125/.371/.125, 24 AB.
Pro debut season cut short by injury. Grade Incomplete. I think this guy was a defensively challenged 1B/OF/DH in college so the 2B designation is inneresting. Maybe the Dodgers think they are grooming the next Max Muncy?
*********************************************************************************
#33 D'Backs: Brennan Malone RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 1-2, 5.14, 7 IP, 5 BB, 7 K's.
Pitched one inning of Short Season ball. Grade C(SSS)(BTW, I really liked what I saw in pre-draft videos).
*********************************************************************************
#34 D'Backs: Drey Jameson RHP. College(Ball St).
Short Season: 0-0, 6.17, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 12 K.
Small RHP who put up interesting numbers for Ball St. Very small sample here, but the walks are not encouraging. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#35 Marlins: Kameron Misner OF. College(Missouri).
2 Levels: .270/.388/.362, 9 2B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 163 AB.
Intriguing athleticism. Nice plate discipline but no power. Aggressive early promotion to A ball where he got most of his AB's. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#39 Twins: Matt Wallner OF. College(Southern Mississippi).
2 Levels: .258/.357/.452, 21 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 24 BB, 80 K's, 252 AB.
Twins like to draft toolsy HS kids in round 1 and college sluggers in round 2. Nice power here, but K rate is off the charts in Rookie+ league. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#46 Marlins: Nasim Nunez SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .211/.340/.251, 5 2B, 3B, 28 SB, 175 AB.
Defensive HS SS. Bat was always going to be a project. Intriguing SB's. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#49 Reds: Rece Hinds SS. HS.
Rookie+: .000, 8 AB.
Huge power potential. Not sure what happened here. He assigned on June 18 but got only 8 AB's. Injur? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#51 Giants: Logan Wyatt 1B. College(Louisville).
3 Levels: .278/.388/.377, 6 2B, 3 HR, 26 BB, 29 K, 151 AB.
Nice ratios. More power would be nice. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#54 Twins: Matt Cantarino RHP. College(Rice).
2 levels: 1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 8 BB, 31 K.
I might have preferred the Giants draft this college pitcher instead of Wyatt at #51 given how thin pitching is in the organization. Will watch their respective development with interest. Grade B+.
*********************************************************************************
#55 Angels: Kyren Paris SS. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .300/.462/.400, 10 AB.
Extreme tools. Nice spot in the draft to take a shot. Very SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#84 Padres: Hudson Head OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .283/.383/.417, 7 2B, 3 3B, HR, 3 SB, 120 AB.
Signed way above slot. Solid rookie ball debut. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#89 Mets: Matthew Allan RHP. HS.
2 Levels: 1-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 14 K.
Another way above slot sign. Has kind of a Matt Cain feel about him. SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#94 Nationals: Drew Mendoza 3B. College(Florida St).
A: .264/.377/.383, 12 2B, 4 HR, 34 BB, 57 K, 201 AB.
3 true outcomes approach even in college. Aggressive to start him off in A ball, but needs to produce more dingers. Eh, Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#122 D'Backs: Glenallen Hill Jr. SS. HS.
Rookie AZL: .206/.289/.363, 4 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 17 BB, 63 K, 160 AB.
A name of interest to Giants fans. You can see the tools in the numbers, but extreme plate discipline and contact issues. Grade C-.
*********************************************************************************
#128 Rays: Graeme Stinson LHP. College(Duke).
Rookie(GCL): 0-1, 13.50, 0.2 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.
Top ranked college pitcher this time last year. Spectacular stock crash. Injury? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
# 149 Twins: Will Holland SS. College(Auburn).
Rookie+: .192/.299/.376, 7 HR, 8 SB, 125 AB.
Low assignment out of a major college program. Some power and speed but extreme contact issues. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#204 Reds: Eric Yang C. College(UCSB).
Rookie+: .290/.428/.420, 9 2B, 4 HR, 162 AB.
I liked Yang's numbers for UCSB. Thought he was one of the top players in that conference. Placement a bit low and an extreme hitter's league. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
#234 Reds: Quin Cotton OF. College(Grand Canyon).
Rookie+: .283/.376/.409, 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 8 SB, 8 CS, 237 AB.
Stock fell off his junior season. Low placement in an extreme hitter's league. Decent numbers but the speed won't play with 50% CS rate. Grade C+.
Giants Dept Charts: Center Field
Kevin Pillar stabilized an extremely unstable CF situation for the Giants last year. The position is one of strength in the minor league system with multiple high ceiling prospects manning the position, the big question being who winds up as the Giants CF of the future. At least it appears the Giants won't have to go outside the organization for CF's in the future.
MLB 40 Man:
Kevin Pillar
Steven Duggar
Mike Gerber
Joey Rickard and Mike Yastrzemski can also play the position in a pinch, but as long as Pillar is on the active roster, he's going to be out there every day. Pillar is in his last year of arbitration and projected to make $9-10 M. The Giants might not want to go that high. Look for them to try to negotiate a 2 year deal at a lower AAV. Duggar needs to stay healthy and get AB's. Gerber had a great AAA season but couldn't make contact in small samples at the MLB level.
AAA:
None.
Michael Reed is listed on the roster as a CF, but I'm pretty sure he is a FA.
AA:
Heliot Ramos
Johneshwy Fargas
Bryce Johnson
Heliot Ramos is one of the Giants top 3 prospects. Maybe he's not a lock to play CF at the MLB level? Fargas has intriguing speed but not enough bat. Bryce Johnson has no power.
A+:
Aaron Bond
The tools are there, but he hit just .185 across 3 levels in 2019. Will have to fight to stay in the organization.
A:
Jose Layer
Jose Layer's offense cratered in his 4'th pro season. Another fight to stay in the organization.
Short Season:
Hunter Bishop
Alexander Canario
Jairo Pomares
Bishop is listed as OF but played exclusively CF in his pro debut. Canario and Pomares are both also top 10 prospects in the organization. Question is where do they all play next season? I'll guess Bishop plays CF for San Jose while Canario stays in the middle for Augusta and while Pomares moves to a corner
Rookie AZL:
Luis Matos
Grant McCray
Javeyon Williams
Richgelon Juliana
PJ Hilson
Raiber Gutierrez
There is probably not enough room for everybody in the organization. Matos and McCray will get first dibs on playing time, but even they will have to fight for spots.
DSL:
None.
Luis Matos played CF for the DSL Giants most of last summer and got a late callup to Arizona. No clear successor.
MLB 40 Man:
Kevin Pillar
Steven Duggar
Mike Gerber
Joey Rickard and Mike Yastrzemski can also play the position in a pinch, but as long as Pillar is on the active roster, he's going to be out there every day. Pillar is in his last year of arbitration and projected to make $9-10 M. The Giants might not want to go that high. Look for them to try to negotiate a 2 year deal at a lower AAV. Duggar needs to stay healthy and get AB's. Gerber had a great AAA season but couldn't make contact in small samples at the MLB level.
AAA:
None.
Michael Reed is listed on the roster as a CF, but I'm pretty sure he is a FA.
AA:
Heliot Ramos
Johneshwy Fargas
Bryce Johnson
Heliot Ramos is one of the Giants top 3 prospects. Maybe he's not a lock to play CF at the MLB level? Fargas has intriguing speed but not enough bat. Bryce Johnson has no power.
A+:
Aaron Bond
The tools are there, but he hit just .185 across 3 levels in 2019. Will have to fight to stay in the organization.
A:
Jose Layer
Jose Layer's offense cratered in his 4'th pro season. Another fight to stay in the organization.
Short Season:
Hunter Bishop
Alexander Canario
Jairo Pomares
Bishop is listed as OF but played exclusively CF in his pro debut. Canario and Pomares are both also top 10 prospects in the organization. Question is where do they all play next season? I'll guess Bishop plays CF for San Jose while Canario stays in the middle for Augusta and while Pomares moves to a corner
Rookie AZL:
Luis Matos
Grant McCray
Javeyon Williams
Richgelon Juliana
PJ Hilson
Raiber Gutierrez
There is probably not enough room for everybody in the organization. Matos and McCray will get first dibs on playing time, but even they will have to fight for spots.
DSL:
None.
Luis Matos played CF for the DSL Giants most of last summer and got a late callup to Arizona. No clear successor.
Saturday, October 19, 2019
2019 First Round Draft Review: #11-20
When I evaluate a draft pick, I want to know the 5-10 players who went right after. If there are several who were clearly better than your team's pick, it's a poor draft. It probably does not mean much in one draft, but if it happens several drafts in a row, it may be time to evaluate the scouring and drafting process.
#11. Blue Jays: Alek Manoah RHP. College(West Virginia).
Short Season: 0-1, 2.65, 17 IP, 5 BB, 27 K's.
Dominating numbers at appropriate level in SSS. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
#12. Mets: Brett Baty 3B. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .350/.480/.650, 3 2B, HR, 20 AB.
R+: .222/.339/.437, 12 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 158 AB.
Short Season: .200/.529/.300, 10 AB.
Late riser in draft. Extreme true outcomes approach. 7 HR in 188 AB's pretty impressive pop for a pro debut, but will the lack of contact play at higher levels? Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#13. Twins: Keoni Cavaco SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .172/.217/.253.
Another late riser in the draft bases on tools. High ceiling, huge bust potential. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#14. Phillies: Bryson Stott SS. College(UNLV).
Rookie(GCL): .667/.727/1.333, 2B, 3B, HR, 9 AB.
Short Season: .274/.370/.446, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 5 SB, 157 AB.
Solid start at an appropriate level. I'll watch his career closely because he seemed like the main alternative to Hunter Bishop for the Giants at #10. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#15. Angels: Will Wilson SS. College(NC State).
R+: .275/.328/.439, 10 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 189 AB.
Nothing wrong with those numbers except it's too low a level and an extreme hitter-friendly league. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#16 D'Backs: Corbin Carroll OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .288/.409/.450, 6 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 16 SB, 111 AB.
Short Season: .326/.408/.581, 3 2B, 4 3B, 2 SB, 43 AB.
Impressing perforamance after promotion to Short Season even if SSS. Comps are Y2Y and Andrew Benintendi. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#17 Nationals: Jackson Rutledge RHP. JC.
Rookie(GCL): 0-0. 27.00, 1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 3 BB, 6 K's.
A: 2-0, 2.30, 27.1 IP, 11 BB, 31 K.
Hard to know where to place JC draftees. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#18 Pirates: Quinn Priester RHP. HS.
Rookie(GCL): 1-1, 3.03, 32.2 IP, 10 BB, 37 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 4.50, 4 IP, 4 BB, 4 K's.
First HS arm taken in this draft. Command and pitchability is his edge. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#19 Cardinals: Zack Thompson LHP. College(Kentucky).
Rookie(GCL): 0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 0 BB, 4 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 4.05, 13.1 IP, 4 BB, 19 K's.
SSS. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#20 Mariners: George Kirby RHP. College(Elon).
Short Season: 0-0, 2.25, 23 IP, 0 BB, 25 K.
Somewhat small sample at appropriate level. Grade B+.
*********************************************************************************
Still fairly happy with the Hunter Bishop pick. He has a higher ceiling than any of the subsequent 10 picks, although the extreme true outcomes approach scares me. It will be interesting to compare his career with Bryson Stott and Corbin Carroll, the 2 guys you could make a case for the Giants drafting at #10.
#11. Blue Jays: Alek Manoah RHP. College(West Virginia).
Short Season: 0-1, 2.65, 17 IP, 5 BB, 27 K's.
Dominating numbers at appropriate level in SSS. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
#12. Mets: Brett Baty 3B. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .350/.480/.650, 3 2B, HR, 20 AB.
R+: .222/.339/.437, 12 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 158 AB.
Short Season: .200/.529/.300, 10 AB.
Late riser in draft. Extreme true outcomes approach. 7 HR in 188 AB's pretty impressive pop for a pro debut, but will the lack of contact play at higher levels? Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#13. Twins: Keoni Cavaco SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .172/.217/.253.
Another late riser in the draft bases on tools. High ceiling, huge bust potential. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#14. Phillies: Bryson Stott SS. College(UNLV).
Rookie(GCL): .667/.727/1.333, 2B, 3B, HR, 9 AB.
Short Season: .274/.370/.446, 8 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 5 SB, 157 AB.
Solid start at an appropriate level. I'll watch his career closely because he seemed like the main alternative to Hunter Bishop for the Giants at #10. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#15. Angels: Will Wilson SS. College(NC State).
R+: .275/.328/.439, 10 2B, 3 3B, 5 HR, 189 AB.
Nothing wrong with those numbers except it's too low a level and an extreme hitter-friendly league. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#16 D'Backs: Corbin Carroll OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .288/.409/.450, 6 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 16 SB, 111 AB.
Short Season: .326/.408/.581, 3 2B, 4 3B, 2 SB, 43 AB.
Impressing perforamance after promotion to Short Season even if SSS. Comps are Y2Y and Andrew Benintendi. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#17 Nationals: Jackson Rutledge RHP. JC.
Rookie(GCL): 0-0. 27.00, 1 IP, 1 BB, 2 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 3.00, 9 IP, 3 BB, 6 K's.
A: 2-0, 2.30, 27.1 IP, 11 BB, 31 K.
Hard to know where to place JC draftees. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#18 Pirates: Quinn Priester RHP. HS.
Rookie(GCL): 1-1, 3.03, 32.2 IP, 10 BB, 37 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 4.50, 4 IP, 4 BB, 4 K's.
First HS arm taken in this draft. Command and pitchability is his edge. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#19 Cardinals: Zack Thompson LHP. College(Kentucky).
Rookie(GCL): 0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 0 BB, 4 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 4.05, 13.1 IP, 4 BB, 19 K's.
SSS. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#20 Mariners: George Kirby RHP. College(Elon).
Short Season: 0-0, 2.25, 23 IP, 0 BB, 25 K.
Somewhat small sample at appropriate level. Grade B+.
*********************************************************************************
Still fairly happy with the Hunter Bishop pick. He has a higher ceiling than any of the subsequent 10 picks, although the extreme true outcomes approach scares me. It will be interesting to compare his career with Bryson Stott and Corbin Carroll, the 2 guys you could make a case for the Giants drafting at #10.
Giants Dept Charts: Left Field
It is challenging to try to separate OF's into specific positions, so the list may not be perfect. It's harder to project final positions in the lower minors. Speed is generally what separates CF's from corner OF's and arm is generally what separates RF from LF, although speed to cover Triples Alley is a factor with the Giants. We'll see how much that changes with the planned new dimensions.
We'll start with LF which has been a wasteland for quite awhile now. Things looked up last season when Alex Dickerson arrived on the scene but that only lasted until he strained an oblique muscle. He gamely tried to play through it, but it obviously affected his ability to swing the bat effectively.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Alex Dickerson
Joey Rickard
Chris Shaw
Joe McCarthy
Dick and Rick actually make a pretty good straight L-R platoon. Dickerson doesn't hit lefties all that well and while Joey Rickard's overall numbers are not impressive, he OPS'd .743 agains LHP's. They are both arbitration eligible and projected to make $1.2 M and $1.1 M respectively. I say they both stick around barring some unforeseen offseason upgrade. Chris Shaw will likely start the season in Sacramento waiting for an injury, which is unfortunately likely with Dickerson. Joe McCarthy is trying to rise to the surface in the "sluice box."
AAA:
Jacob Heyward
Heyward is Rule 5 eligible but probably does not need to be protected. He's playing in the Arizona Fall League. I'm pretty sure Anthony Garcia and Courtney Hawkins are free agents.
AA:
None.
A+:
Heath Quinn
Diego Rincones
Quinn has hit pretty well when healthy, but has been hurt a lot since being drafted. Rincones seems to have a plus hit tool with extra base power, but is not athletic and may not have enough HR power for LF at higher levels.
A:
Ismael Munguia
Randy Norris
Frankie Tostado
Munguia is a small scrappy player but will never hit for enough power to be a LF. He projects more as a 5'th OF type. Norris is still trying to establish himself in the organization. Tostado is more of a 1B, but can increase his value if he can also play LF.
Short Season:
Armani Smith
Tyler Flores
Kwan Adkins
Vince Flores
Armani Smith had a nice pro debut and has the size to project some power. Kwan Adkins also has some physical projection and had a decent second pro season. Tyler Flores hit 7 HR's in 119 AB for S-K. He was an undrafted FA out of Point Loma Nazarene in 2018. Vince Flores is listed as a LF on the S-K roster but no info. It looks like he is a 2018 HS graduate who committed to Washington but redshirted his freshman season, then dropped out of school to play indy ball. Everything I could find on him indicates he's actually more of a middle IF type. Jairo Pomares is listed on the roster as a CF, but the Giants have a glut of those and I could see Pomares or Luis Matos or even Heliot Ramos eventually moving to LF.
Rookie AZL:
George Bell
Najee Gaskins
Javeyon Williams
None of the OF's currently on AZL Giants rosters are listed as LF's. Bell, Gaskins and Williams played LF more than CF or RF, so we'll put them on this list. They are all long shots to ever sniff a MLB roster.
DSL:
Jose Hernandez
Carlos Cuevas
Adolfo Valdez
None of these names appear to be serious prospects.
We'll start with LF which has been a wasteland for quite awhile now. Things looked up last season when Alex Dickerson arrived on the scene but that only lasted until he strained an oblique muscle. He gamely tried to play through it, but it obviously affected his ability to swing the bat effectively.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Alex Dickerson
Joey Rickard
Chris Shaw
Joe McCarthy
Dick and Rick actually make a pretty good straight L-R platoon. Dickerson doesn't hit lefties all that well and while Joey Rickard's overall numbers are not impressive, he OPS'd .743 agains LHP's. They are both arbitration eligible and projected to make $1.2 M and $1.1 M respectively. I say they both stick around barring some unforeseen offseason upgrade. Chris Shaw will likely start the season in Sacramento waiting for an injury, which is unfortunately likely with Dickerson. Joe McCarthy is trying to rise to the surface in the "sluice box."
AAA:
Jacob Heyward
Heyward is Rule 5 eligible but probably does not need to be protected. He's playing in the Arizona Fall League. I'm pretty sure Anthony Garcia and Courtney Hawkins are free agents.
AA:
None.
A+:
Heath Quinn
Diego Rincones
Quinn has hit pretty well when healthy, but has been hurt a lot since being drafted. Rincones seems to have a plus hit tool with extra base power, but is not athletic and may not have enough HR power for LF at higher levels.
A:
Ismael Munguia
Randy Norris
Frankie Tostado
Munguia is a small scrappy player but will never hit for enough power to be a LF. He projects more as a 5'th OF type. Norris is still trying to establish himself in the organization. Tostado is more of a 1B, but can increase his value if he can also play LF.
Short Season:
Armani Smith
Tyler Flores
Kwan Adkins
Vince Flores
Armani Smith had a nice pro debut and has the size to project some power. Kwan Adkins also has some physical projection and had a decent second pro season. Tyler Flores hit 7 HR's in 119 AB for S-K. He was an undrafted FA out of Point Loma Nazarene in 2018. Vince Flores is listed as a LF on the S-K roster but no info. It looks like he is a 2018 HS graduate who committed to Washington but redshirted his freshman season, then dropped out of school to play indy ball. Everything I could find on him indicates he's actually more of a middle IF type. Jairo Pomares is listed on the roster as a CF, but the Giants have a glut of those and I could see Pomares or Luis Matos or even Heliot Ramos eventually moving to LF.
Rookie AZL:
George Bell
Najee Gaskins
Javeyon Williams
None of the OF's currently on AZL Giants rosters are listed as LF's. Bell, Gaskins and Williams played LF more than CF or RF, so we'll put them on this list. They are all long shots to ever sniff a MLB roster.
DSL:
Jose Hernandez
Carlos Cuevas
Adolfo Valdez
None of these names appear to be serious prospects.
Friday, October 18, 2019
2019 First Round Draft Review: 1-10
The most important pick for every team in every draft is the first round, especially if it is in the top half of the round. That's where game-changing talent is found and the probability of finding an impact player drops off exponentially after that. We'll review the first round of this year's draft to see how prospects performed in their first pro experience. As always, grades are for fun and for current peformance only, not a prospect rating or predictor of future performance.
1. Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C. College(Oregon St). DOB: 2/6/1998. B-S, T-R. 6'2", 216 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .143/.250/.357, HR, SB, 14 AB.
Short Season: .325/.413/.481, 7 2B, 3B, HR, 77 AB.
A(SAL): .154/.261/.333, 2B, 2 HR, 39 AB.
Rutschman raked at the level he was supposed play at. The other two stops were SSS. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
2. Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS. HS. DOB: 6/14/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 190 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .262/.317/.354, 2 2B, 5 3B, HR, 9 SB, 164 AB.
Pro debut in a hitter-friendly environment did not exactly quell questions about the bat. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B. College(Cal). DOB: 4/3/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 214 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .600/.625/.933, 2 2B, HR.
A(SAL): .253/.388/.410, 7 2B, 2 HR, 83 AB.
A+: .252/.349/.411, 8 2B, 3 HR, 107 AB.
Held his own in A+ ball, an extremely aggressive placement. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
4. Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF. College(Vanderbilt). DOB: 11/10/1997. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 205 lbs.
A+: .257/.311/.379, 8 2B, 3 HR, 130 AB.
Aggressive placement in a pitcher-friendly league. Have read some comments that speed was disappointing. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
5. Tigers: Riley Greene, OF. HS. DOB: 9/28/2000. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 200 lbs.
Rookie GCL: .351/.442/.595, 3 2B, 2 HR, 37 AB.
Short Season: .295/.380/.386, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 88 AB.
A(Midwest): .219/.278/.344, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 96 AB.
Very aggressive placement for a HS draftee. Did not disappoint those who think his bat is special. Gets a nice head start on next season with 96 AB in A ball. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
6. Padres: CJ Abrams, SS. HS. DOB: 10/3/2000. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 185 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .401/.442/.662, 12 2B, 8 3B, 3 HR, 14 SB, 142 AB.
A(Midwest): .250/.333/.375, 2B, 8 AB.
Reputed to be the fastest prospect in the draft. Abrams torched the AZL, his appropriate level, but landed on the DL with a shoulder strain 4 days after his promotion. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
7. Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP. College(TCU). DOB: 2/5/1998. 6'6", 202 lbs.
R+(Pioneer): 0-1, 2.38, 11.1 IP, 0 BB, 21 K.
A(Midwest): 0-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 0 BB, 9 K's.
Organizations have become much more conservative about placement and workload for college pitching draftees. Tough to get much better than a 30/0 K/BB no matter where you are placed. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
8. Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B. College(Texas Tech). DOB: 2/12/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .588/632/.941, 2B, 3B, HR, 17 AB.
A(SAL): .287/.363/.389, 13 2B, HR.
Fairly aggressive placement in full season ball even if it is in low A ball. Hit tool is there, but questions about power remain. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
9. Braves: Shea Langeliers, C. College(Baylor). DOB: 11/18/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
A(SAL): .255/.310/.343, 13 2B, 2 HR, 216 AB.
Langeliers calling card is his defense. Bat so-so in a fairly aggressive placement in a pitcher-friendly environment. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
10. Giants: Hunter Bishop, OF. College(Arizona St). DOB: 6/25/1998. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 210 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 20 AB.
Short Season: .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 85 AB.
Possibly the most extreme 3-true outcomes performance in a pro debut I have ever seen. Does that play at higher levels? Grade B.
1. Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C. College(Oregon St). DOB: 2/6/1998. B-S, T-R. 6'2", 216 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .143/.250/.357, HR, SB, 14 AB.
Short Season: .325/.413/.481, 7 2B, 3B, HR, 77 AB.
A(SAL): .154/.261/.333, 2B, 2 HR, 39 AB.
Rutschman raked at the level he was supposed play at. The other two stops were SSS. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
2. Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., SS. HS. DOB: 6/14/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'1", 190 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .262/.317/.354, 2 2B, 5 3B, HR, 9 SB, 164 AB.
Pro debut in a hitter-friendly environment did not exactly quell questions about the bat. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
3. White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, 1B. College(Cal). DOB: 4/3/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 214 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .600/.625/.933, 2 2B, HR.
A(SAL): .253/.388/.410, 7 2B, 2 HR, 83 AB.
A+: .252/.349/.411, 8 2B, 3 HR, 107 AB.
Held his own in A+ ball, an extremely aggressive placement. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
4. Marlins: JJ Bleday, OF. College(Vanderbilt). DOB: 11/10/1997. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 205 lbs.
A+: .257/.311/.379, 8 2B, 3 HR, 130 AB.
Aggressive placement in a pitcher-friendly league. Have read some comments that speed was disappointing. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
5. Tigers: Riley Greene, OF. HS. DOB: 9/28/2000. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 200 lbs.
Rookie GCL: .351/.442/.595, 3 2B, 2 HR, 37 AB.
Short Season: .295/.380/.386, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 88 AB.
A(Midwest): .219/.278/.344, 2 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 96 AB.
Very aggressive placement for a HS draftee. Did not disappoint those who think his bat is special. Gets a nice head start on next season with 96 AB in A ball. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
6. Padres: CJ Abrams, SS. HS. DOB: 10/3/2000. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 185 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .401/.442/.662, 12 2B, 8 3B, 3 HR, 14 SB, 142 AB.
A(Midwest): .250/.333/.375, 2B, 8 AB.
Reputed to be the fastest prospect in the draft. Abrams torched the AZL, his appropriate level, but landed on the DL with a shoulder strain 4 days after his promotion. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
7. Reds: Nick Lodolo, LHP. College(TCU). DOB: 2/5/1998. 6'6", 202 lbs.
R+(Pioneer): 0-1, 2.38, 11.1 IP, 0 BB, 21 K.
A(Midwest): 0-0, 2.57, 7 IP, 0 BB, 9 K's.
Organizations have become much more conservative about placement and workload for college pitching draftees. Tough to get much better than a 30/0 K/BB no matter where you are placed. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
8. Rangers: Josh Jung, 3B. College(Texas Tech). DOB: 2/12/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .588/632/.941, 2B, 3B, HR, 17 AB.
A(SAL): .287/.363/.389, 13 2B, HR.
Fairly aggressive placement in full season ball even if it is in low A ball. Hit tool is there, but questions about power remain. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
9. Braves: Shea Langeliers, C. College(Baylor). DOB: 11/18/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 190 lbs.
A(SAL): .255/.310/.343, 13 2B, 2 HR, 216 AB.
Langeliers calling card is his defense. Bat so-so in a fairly aggressive placement in a pitcher-friendly environment. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
10. Giants: Hunter Bishop, OF. College(Arizona St). DOB: 6/25/1998. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 210 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 20 AB.
Short Season: .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 85 AB.
Possibly the most extreme 3-true outcomes performance in a pro debut I have ever seen. Does that play at higher levels? Grade B.
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
Giants Depth Charts: Shortstop
Shortstop is another position where the Giants are reaching the end of an era sooner than they hoped for. Barring a very unusual turnaround, Brandon Crawford's career is rolling downhill with nothing in sight to stop it. The only question is when do they have a replacement good enough to make them wiling to just pay off the remainder of his contract.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Brandon Crawford
Mauricio Dubon
Donovan Solano
Abiatal Avelino
Crawford is on top of the Depth Chart for now. I suspect he will still be on Opening Day, but don't think he's a lock to finish the 2020 season there. My own preference would be to put Dubon at SS and then try to find an upgraded bat for 2B. Dubon appears to have the athleticism and arm to play SS and I think his bat plays better there than 2B. Also, it's easier to find a bat for 2B than SS. I did not realize Solano is arb eligible until I read Maria Guardado's Inbox on sfgiants.com today. I should have included him in the 2B depth chart. He can fill in at SS but doesn't have the defensive chops to start there. I don't think I can recall another player who got as deep in the doghouse over one play than Avelino when he blew through a stop sign at 3B and got thrown out at home, thereby likely costing the Giants a game. He was sent packing the very next day and did not return, even in September. Ouch! He's still on the 40 man roster, though.
AAA:
Ryan Howard
Howard is Rule 5 eligible but is coming off a disappointing season and probably does not have to be protected with addition to 40-man. Needs to bounce back bigly next season.
AA:
Brandon Van Horn
Van Horn has always been a glove-first SS and struggled to a .205 BA across 3 levels in 2019. Pretty much an organizational player at this point.
A+:
Manuel Geraldo
I have always been just a bit irrationally exuberant about Manuel Geraldo. I love his combination of size, wiry strength, athleticism and switch-hitting. Unfortunately, to say his is a slow starter is a massive understatement. 2019 in SJ was no exception. He couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag with a .194 BA in the first half, but then came alive in the second have with a very respectable .303/.332/.470 BA. After 6 minor league seasons, I believe he is a minor league FA? We'll see if he sticks around.
A:
Tyler Fitzgerald
Simon Whiteman
Both 2019 draftees. Whiteman got moved off SS when Fitz showed up, so we know who's ahead on the depth chart. Does Fitz move up to SJ in 2020?
Short Season:
Marco Luciano
OK, here it is folks. The great hope of the organization! Luciano was generally considered to have the top tools in the 2018 July 2 international class. So far, he's lived up to that and more. Assigning him to the AZL for his first pro experience at age 17 was an aggressive assignment and he destroyed AZL pitching to a 1.055 OPS. He got a late promotion to S-K where he was not spectacular but didn't really get a chance to find his footing as his season ended early with what is described as a minor leg injury. If healthy, gotta think he starts 2020 in Augusta which will be a big challenge. Really, if Luciano stays healthy and get anywhere near his potential, none of the other names in this depth chart mean squat. He is the SS of the future!
Rookie AZL:
Dilan Rosario
Ghordy Santos
Edison Mora
Enoc Watts
Rosario and Santos are the names to pay attention to here. Both are raw, high ceiling lottery tickets with big time bust potential.
DSL:
Nelson Marin
Roberto Monegro
Neither player made much of an impression in their first pro season.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Brandon Crawford
Mauricio Dubon
Donovan Solano
Abiatal Avelino
Crawford is on top of the Depth Chart for now. I suspect he will still be on Opening Day, but don't think he's a lock to finish the 2020 season there. My own preference would be to put Dubon at SS and then try to find an upgraded bat for 2B. Dubon appears to have the athleticism and arm to play SS and I think his bat plays better there than 2B. Also, it's easier to find a bat for 2B than SS. I did not realize Solano is arb eligible until I read Maria Guardado's Inbox on sfgiants.com today. I should have included him in the 2B depth chart. He can fill in at SS but doesn't have the defensive chops to start there. I don't think I can recall another player who got as deep in the doghouse over one play than Avelino when he blew through a stop sign at 3B and got thrown out at home, thereby likely costing the Giants a game. He was sent packing the very next day and did not return, even in September. Ouch! He's still on the 40 man roster, though.
AAA:
Ryan Howard
Howard is Rule 5 eligible but is coming off a disappointing season and probably does not have to be protected with addition to 40-man. Needs to bounce back bigly next season.
AA:
Brandon Van Horn
Van Horn has always been a glove-first SS and struggled to a .205 BA across 3 levels in 2019. Pretty much an organizational player at this point.
A+:
Manuel Geraldo
I have always been just a bit irrationally exuberant about Manuel Geraldo. I love his combination of size, wiry strength, athleticism and switch-hitting. Unfortunately, to say his is a slow starter is a massive understatement. 2019 in SJ was no exception. He couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag with a .194 BA in the first half, but then came alive in the second have with a very respectable .303/.332/.470 BA. After 6 minor league seasons, I believe he is a minor league FA? We'll see if he sticks around.
A:
Tyler Fitzgerald
Simon Whiteman
Both 2019 draftees. Whiteman got moved off SS when Fitz showed up, so we know who's ahead on the depth chart. Does Fitz move up to SJ in 2020?
Short Season:
Marco Luciano
OK, here it is folks. The great hope of the organization! Luciano was generally considered to have the top tools in the 2018 July 2 international class. So far, he's lived up to that and more. Assigning him to the AZL for his first pro experience at age 17 was an aggressive assignment and he destroyed AZL pitching to a 1.055 OPS. He got a late promotion to S-K where he was not spectacular but didn't really get a chance to find his footing as his season ended early with what is described as a minor leg injury. If healthy, gotta think he starts 2020 in Augusta which will be a big challenge. Really, if Luciano stays healthy and get anywhere near his potential, none of the other names in this depth chart mean squat. He is the SS of the future!
Rookie AZL:
Dilan Rosario
Ghordy Santos
Edison Mora
Enoc Watts
Rosario and Santos are the names to pay attention to here. Both are raw, high ceiling lottery tickets with big time bust potential.
DSL:
Nelson Marin
Roberto Monegro
Neither player made much of an impression in their first pro season.
2019 Giants Draft Review: Rounds 31-40
Round 31, #926. Tyler Wyatt 3B, College(Grand Canyon U). DOB: 12/9/1996. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 185 lbs.
3 Teams(2 levels): .244/.407/.338, 15 2B, 38 BB, 37 K, 160 AB.
2 true outcomes with a lot of doubles. Not sure how that plays at higher levels, especially from a corner IF. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 32, #956. Dylan Brewer OF, HS. Did not sign.
********************************************************************************
Round 33, #986. Nolan Dempsey IF, College(Fresno St). DOB: 9/9/1996. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .257/.398/.357, 5 2B, 3B, 8 BB, 14 K, 70 AB.
Not a great start for a college draftee in rookie ball. Grade C-.
*********************************************************************************
Rounds 34-40. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Giants draft is pretty close to proof MLB could limit their draft to 20 rounds with close to zero negative impact. As for grades, there were no A's and no D's or F's. The top 10 picks were pretty much all B's and everybody drafted and signed after that was a C. Overall I don't think this was a great draft pool to pick from. Ultimately this draft hinges on how Hunter Bishop's rather unique approach at the plate plays at higher levels. Before we turn to the 2020 draft, we'll run down all of Round 1 so you can compare Bishop's performance with those of other first rounders.
3 Teams(2 levels): .244/.407/.338, 15 2B, 38 BB, 37 K, 160 AB.
2 true outcomes with a lot of doubles. Not sure how that plays at higher levels, especially from a corner IF. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 32, #956. Dylan Brewer OF, HS. Did not sign.
********************************************************************************
Round 33, #986. Nolan Dempsey IF, College(Fresno St). DOB: 9/9/1996. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .257/.398/.357, 5 2B, 3B, 8 BB, 14 K, 70 AB.
Not a great start for a college draftee in rookie ball. Grade C-.
*********************************************************************************
Rounds 34-40. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Giants draft is pretty close to proof MLB could limit their draft to 20 rounds with close to zero negative impact. As for grades, there were no A's and no D's or F's. The top 10 picks were pretty much all B's and everybody drafted and signed after that was a C. Overall I don't think this was a great draft pool to pick from. Ultimately this draft hinges on how Hunter Bishop's rather unique approach at the plate plays at higher levels. Before we turn to the 2020 draft, we'll run down all of Round 1 so you can compare Bishop's performance with those of other first rounders.
Monday, October 14, 2019
Giants Depth Charts: Third Base
When the Giants traded for Evan Longoria, they set the top of their 3B depth chart through 2022. That's the bad news. The not so bad news is they got the Rays to pick up enough of his contract that they only have to pay him $13 M per season. In more not so bad news, since he accumulated 2.0 fWAR last year, he was worth a bit more than the $13 M the Giants paid him. Whether he can continue that production for the next 3 seasons remains to be seen, but unlike some other high priced Giants, he at least earned his keep last year.
MLB(40 Man Roster):
Evan Longoria
Zach Green(60 Day IL)
See above re. Longoria. He probably has some trade value so if Farhan wants to reduce his future payroll commitments, we could see Longo moved this winter. The problem is who would replace him. Pablo Sandoval is a free agent and probably can't play everyday anymore. He's likely to miss the first half of the season due to TJ surgery to boot. Zach Green is not a lock to be added back to the 40 Man Roster when he comes off the IL. A replacement for Evan Longoria would likely have to come via trade or free agency.
AAA:
None.
Zach Houchins is a free agent.
AA:
Ryder Jones
I didn't know Ryder Jones was still in the organization, but his name is on the Flying Squirrels roster. It was a rough season for him as he got just 37 AB with 4 different teams within the organization hitting just .189.
A+:
David Villar
Villar is a legitimate prospect. I read somewhere he was named the top defensive 3B in the Cal League in 2019. Hits for power, but struggles to make contact.
A:
Sean Roby
Jacob Gonzalez
Roby has serious power potential. He only hit 5 HR in 226 AB's in 2019, but represented the S-K Volcanoes in a HR derby and absolutely crushed one. Raked to a .338 BA for S-K, struggled to a .187 BA after promotion to Augusta, but with an SLG of .400. I suspect Jacob Gonzalez is a candidate to be released over the winter.
Short Season:
Luis Toribio
Yorlis Rodriguez
Abdiel Layer
Tyler Wyatt
Toribio is another serious prospect with a plus bat with exceptional plate discipline. YRod is another kid with a great hit tool, but power still needs to develop. Layer is a lottery ticket and Wyatt is probably roster filler.
Rookie AZL:
Jean Pena
Pena won't be going anywhere until he brings down a 50% K rate.
DSL: There are no players listed as 3B on the current DSL roster.
MLB(40 Man Roster):
Evan Longoria
Zach Green(60 Day IL)
See above re. Longoria. He probably has some trade value so if Farhan wants to reduce his future payroll commitments, we could see Longo moved this winter. The problem is who would replace him. Pablo Sandoval is a free agent and probably can't play everyday anymore. He's likely to miss the first half of the season due to TJ surgery to boot. Zach Green is not a lock to be added back to the 40 Man Roster when he comes off the IL. A replacement for Evan Longoria would likely have to come via trade or free agency.
AAA:
None.
Zach Houchins is a free agent.
AA:
Ryder Jones
I didn't know Ryder Jones was still in the organization, but his name is on the Flying Squirrels roster. It was a rough season for him as he got just 37 AB with 4 different teams within the organization hitting just .189.
A+:
David Villar
Villar is a legitimate prospect. I read somewhere he was named the top defensive 3B in the Cal League in 2019. Hits for power, but struggles to make contact.
A:
Sean Roby
Jacob Gonzalez
Roby has serious power potential. He only hit 5 HR in 226 AB's in 2019, but represented the S-K Volcanoes in a HR derby and absolutely crushed one. Raked to a .338 BA for S-K, struggled to a .187 BA after promotion to Augusta, but with an SLG of .400. I suspect Jacob Gonzalez is a candidate to be released over the winter.
Short Season:
Luis Toribio
Yorlis Rodriguez
Abdiel Layer
Tyler Wyatt
Toribio is another serious prospect with a plus bat with exceptional plate discipline. YRod is another kid with a great hit tool, but power still needs to develop. Layer is a lottery ticket and Wyatt is probably roster filler.
Rookie AZL:
Jean Pena
Pena won't be going anywhere until he brings down a 50% K rate.
DSL: There are no players listed as 3B on the current DSL roster.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 21-30
Again, grades are for fun and for current performance only. They are not a projection of future success.
Round 21 #626. Bryce Fehmel RHP, College(Oregon St). DOB: 12/16/1996. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 1.29, 14 IP, 0 BB, 13 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 9.00, 2 IP, 1 BB, 2 K's.
College senior. Level too low/SSS. Grade C. I'm kind of bullish on him.
*********************************************************************************
Round 22 #656. Javeyon Williams OF, College(Southern A&M). DOB: 6/27/1997. B-L, T-L. 5'9", 160 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .286/.369/.333, 7 2B, 18 SB, 8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%.
Another college senior. Nothing wrong with those numbers except too low a level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 23 #686. Taylor Rashi RHP, College(UCI). DOB: 1/16/1996. 6'4", 220 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 2-0, 1.32, 13.2 IP, 4 BB, 20 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 2 BB, 2 K.
5'th year college senior. Giants were very conservative with placement for most of their 2019 draftees. Too low level/SSS. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 24 #716. Evan Lumbert RHP, College(Florida Gulf Coast). DOB: 5/10/1996. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 3-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 8 BB, 7 K's.
SSS/Low level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 25 #746. Richard Rodriguez 2B, HS. DOB: 7/10/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 165 lbs.
Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 26 #776. Nick Avila RHP, College(Long Beach St.). DOB: 7/25/1997. 6'4", 195 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-2, 1.11, 24.1 IP, 6 BB, 11 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 2 BB, 3 K's.
K/BB not great. Low level/SSS. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 27 #806. Connor Beichler SS, HS. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 28 #836. Reese Sharp RHP, HS. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 29 #866. Brooks Crawford RHP. College(Clemson). DOB: 8/19/1996. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 6.14, 14.2 IP, 7 BB, 14 K, 3 Saves.
Low level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 30 #896. Justin Crump RHP, College(UNC Wilmington). DOB: 12/1/1995. 6'3", 215 lbs.
Signed but did not play. Grade Incomplete
As you can see, Giants were already punting picks on HS players who weren't going to sign by Round 25. Strong argument for drastically shortening the draft. I say absolutely no more than 20 rounds.
Round 21 #626. Bryce Fehmel RHP, College(Oregon St). DOB: 12/16/1996. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 1.29, 14 IP, 0 BB, 13 K's.
Short Season: 0-0, 9.00, 2 IP, 1 BB, 2 K's.
College senior. Level too low/SSS. Grade C. I'm kind of bullish on him.
*********************************************************************************
Round 22 #656. Javeyon Williams OF, College(Southern A&M). DOB: 6/27/1997. B-L, T-L. 5'9", 160 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .286/.369/.333, 7 2B, 18 SB, 8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%.
Another college senior. Nothing wrong with those numbers except too low a level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 23 #686. Taylor Rashi RHP, College(UCI). DOB: 1/16/1996. 6'4", 220 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 2-0, 1.32, 13.2 IP, 4 BB, 20 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 2 BB, 2 K.
5'th year college senior. Giants were very conservative with placement for most of their 2019 draftees. Too low level/SSS. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 24 #716. Evan Lumbert RHP, College(Florida Gulf Coast). DOB: 5/10/1996. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 3-0, 1.50, 12 IP, 8 BB, 7 K's.
SSS/Low level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 25 #746. Richard Rodriguez 2B, HS. DOB: 7/10/2000. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 165 lbs.
Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 26 #776. Nick Avila RHP, College(Long Beach St.). DOB: 7/25/1997. 6'4", 195 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-2, 1.11, 24.1 IP, 6 BB, 11 K.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 2 BB, 3 K's.
K/BB not great. Low level/SSS. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 27 #806. Connor Beichler SS, HS. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 28 #836. Reese Sharp RHP, HS. Did not sign.
*********************************************************************************
Round 29 #866. Brooks Crawford RHP. College(Clemson). DOB: 8/19/1996. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 6.14, 14.2 IP, 7 BB, 14 K, 3 Saves.
Low level. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 30 #896. Justin Crump RHP, College(UNC Wilmington). DOB: 12/1/1995. 6'3", 215 lbs.
Signed but did not play. Grade Incomplete
As you can see, Giants were already punting picks on HS players who weren't going to sign by Round 25. Strong argument for drastically shortening the draft. I say absolutely no more than 20 rounds.
Saturday, October 12, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Drew Robinson
Well folks, the MLB postseason is still going strong, but I see the players wearing extra layers, so it's not too early to fire up the Hot Stove, and for more than interviewing manager and GM candidates. The Giants made their first minor league free agent signing which frankly has become so commonplace, I can't keep up or come close to writing up a profile on each signing.
Before I start, I have to give credit to Bryan Murphy of mccoveychronicles.com for making me take a second look at Drew Robinson. The Next Max Muncy has become something of a holy grail for Giants fans since Farhan Zaidi became the GM or whatever his title is. Up to this point, I think we can all agree that Mike Yastrzemski is the closest we've come, and we don't have anything to apologize for with him. If you are still looking for another Next Max Muncy, Drew Robinson seems like as good a candidate as any.
Robinson was drafted in 2010 Round 4 by the Rangers. He has 5 decent tools with power possibly being his best. He's played every position in the minor leagues except pitcher and catcher. Here's the capsule profile:
DOB: 4/20/1992. B-L, T-R. 6'1", 185 lbs.
Minors(career): .253/362/.449, 13.91 BB%, 27.34 K%. He has produced 28 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR per 600 PA's in the minors. His first full season in AAA was 2016 with a line very close to his minor league career average: .257/.350/.480, 24 2B, 10 3B, 20 HR, 12.24 BB%, 27.46 K%. He's split time in AAA and MLB since. His best MLB season was 2017 with a line of .224/.314/.439, 5 2B, 6 HR, 11.57 BB%, 34.71 K%, 121 PA. He struggled to a .183/.288/.294 line in 2018 and was traded to the Cardinals organization. He got just 7 MBP PA's in 2019 and was released in August.
Here's what got my attention in Bryan Murphy's MCC article, though: The videos! Ooooh! That is one sweet swing he has there! Once that got my attention, here's what stands out to me about Drew Robinson:
1. Extreme 3-true outcomes hitter. Double digit BB's, about 30% K's and power. It's not purely HR power. It's XBH power with a mix of 2B, 3B, HR. Oh, and he steals an occasional base.
2. The triples and occasional SB tell you there is some athleticism and speed.
3. Versatile defensively
4. Sweet swing!
Here are some comments John Sickels made about Drew Robinson in 2017:
....swing is smooth to the eye....
....very selective hitter and draws a lot of walks to the point that scouts think he is TOO selective and could benefit from swinging at hittable pitches early in he count rather than waiting for the perfect pitch.
....very skilled at second base and third base and has looked comfortable at all three outfield spots as well.
...if I were another team, I'd be looking to pick this guy up.
Oh, and be sure to look up the videos and check out that swing!
Before I start, I have to give credit to Bryan Murphy of mccoveychronicles.com for making me take a second look at Drew Robinson. The Next Max Muncy has become something of a holy grail for Giants fans since Farhan Zaidi became the GM or whatever his title is. Up to this point, I think we can all agree that Mike Yastrzemski is the closest we've come, and we don't have anything to apologize for with him. If you are still looking for another Next Max Muncy, Drew Robinson seems like as good a candidate as any.
Robinson was drafted in 2010 Round 4 by the Rangers. He has 5 decent tools with power possibly being his best. He's played every position in the minor leagues except pitcher and catcher. Here's the capsule profile:
DOB: 4/20/1992. B-L, T-R. 6'1", 185 lbs.
Minors(career): .253/362/.449, 13.91 BB%, 27.34 K%. He has produced 28 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR per 600 PA's in the minors. His first full season in AAA was 2016 with a line very close to his minor league career average: .257/.350/.480, 24 2B, 10 3B, 20 HR, 12.24 BB%, 27.46 K%. He's split time in AAA and MLB since. His best MLB season was 2017 with a line of .224/.314/.439, 5 2B, 6 HR, 11.57 BB%, 34.71 K%, 121 PA. He struggled to a .183/.288/.294 line in 2018 and was traded to the Cardinals organization. He got just 7 MBP PA's in 2019 and was released in August.
Here's what got my attention in Bryan Murphy's MCC article, though: The videos! Ooooh! That is one sweet swing he has there! Once that got my attention, here's what stands out to me about Drew Robinson:
1. Extreme 3-true outcomes hitter. Double digit BB's, about 30% K's and power. It's not purely HR power. It's XBH power with a mix of 2B, 3B, HR. Oh, and he steals an occasional base.
2. The triples and occasional SB tell you there is some athleticism and speed.
3. Versatile defensively
4. Sweet swing!
Here are some comments John Sickels made about Drew Robinson in 2017:
....swing is smooth to the eye....
....very selective hitter and draws a lot of walks to the point that scouts think he is TOO selective and could benefit from swinging at hittable pitches early in he count rather than waiting for the perfect pitch.
....very skilled at second base and third base and has looked comfortable at all three outfield spots as well.
...if I were another team, I'd be looking to pick this guy up.
Oh, and be sure to look up the videos and check out that swing!
Friday, October 11, 2019
Giants Dept Charts: Second Base
Joe Panik, who had been a fixture at 2B since 2014 is gone. Although things could easily change dramatically between now and Opening Day, Mauricio Dubon is the new starting 2B until proven otherwise. Second base his not a particularly strong position in the Giants minor league system, it should be fairly easy for Farhan Zaidi to find opportunities on the waiver wire to enter The Churn.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mauricio Dubon
Cristhian Adames
Abiatal Avelino
Austin Slater?
After the trade and call up, Dubon demonstrated 5 tools on the field. As always, the hit tool is the most suspect. UZR is not in love with his defense, but he has the athleticism to improve with experience and showed a high baseball IQ on multiple plays. The question is does Farhan have enough faith to had him the starting position or does he bring in a vet and make him compete for the job? Sabes/Evans would definitely be bringing in a vet. Adames and Avelino provide decent depth. Slater is unlikely to play more than occasionally as a deep backup.
AAA:
Jalen Miller
Ryan Howard
Miller and Howard both had disappointing seasons between AA and AAA. They are both Rule 5 Draft eligible, but probably no need to add them to the 40 man roster.
AA:
None.
A+:
Shane Matheny
Kyle McPherson
Neither player has impressed much in 3 seasons in the organization.
A:
Anyesber Sivira
Simon Whiteman
19 yo Sivira has flashed some tools but the bat is inconsistent. Whiteman was drafted as a SS but generally moved to 2B to make room for fellow 2019 draftee Tyler Fitzgerald.
Short Season:
Carter Aldrete
Jeff Houghtby
Yorlis Rodriguez
Aldrete and Houghtby are low-ceiling college draftees. Yorlis Rodriguez played some 2B to escape the logjam at 3B. He has shown superior contact skills at times but faded badly in the second half for Salem-Keizer.
Rookie AZL:
Ghordy Santos
Andrew Caraballo
Nolan Dempsey
Santos has been a SS but moved to 2B in the second half of 2019. He is probably the top prospect out of these 3 names.
DSL:
Jose Peralta
Diego Verbel
Yeiver Torrealba
Peralta sported a .290 BA in the DSL. Verbel held his own at age 16.
This is not an inspiring group, but MLB 2B are most often converted SS prospects who don't quite have the arm for the throw from the deep hole. They should be fairly plentiful on the waiver wires which fits right in with Farhan's game plan.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mauricio Dubon
Cristhian Adames
Abiatal Avelino
Austin Slater?
After the trade and call up, Dubon demonstrated 5 tools on the field. As always, the hit tool is the most suspect. UZR is not in love with his defense, but he has the athleticism to improve with experience and showed a high baseball IQ on multiple plays. The question is does Farhan have enough faith to had him the starting position or does he bring in a vet and make him compete for the job? Sabes/Evans would definitely be bringing in a vet. Adames and Avelino provide decent depth. Slater is unlikely to play more than occasionally as a deep backup.
AAA:
Jalen Miller
Ryan Howard
Miller and Howard both had disappointing seasons between AA and AAA. They are both Rule 5 Draft eligible, but probably no need to add them to the 40 man roster.
AA:
None.
A+:
Shane Matheny
Kyle McPherson
Neither player has impressed much in 3 seasons in the organization.
A:
Anyesber Sivira
Simon Whiteman
19 yo Sivira has flashed some tools but the bat is inconsistent. Whiteman was drafted as a SS but generally moved to 2B to make room for fellow 2019 draftee Tyler Fitzgerald.
Short Season:
Carter Aldrete
Jeff Houghtby
Yorlis Rodriguez
Aldrete and Houghtby are low-ceiling college draftees. Yorlis Rodriguez played some 2B to escape the logjam at 3B. He has shown superior contact skills at times but faded badly in the second half for Salem-Keizer.
Rookie AZL:
Ghordy Santos
Andrew Caraballo
Nolan Dempsey
Santos has been a SS but moved to 2B in the second half of 2019. He is probably the top prospect out of these 3 names.
DSL:
Jose Peralta
Diego Verbel
Yeiver Torrealba
Peralta sported a .290 BA in the DSL. Verbel held his own at age 16.
This is not an inspiring group, but MLB 2B are most often converted SS prospects who don't quite have the arm for the throw from the deep hole. They should be fairly plentiful on the waiver wires which fits right in with Farhan's game plan.
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Postseason Update: Dave Roberts Shows Why Bruce Bochy Is Going To the Hall of Fame
By now, I am sure you all know about the Dodgers meltdown in Game 5 of the NLDS, you know, the elimination winner-take-all game if you didn't watch it. Dave Roberts has made questionable postseason decisions in the past, but tonight might have been his worst and a perfect illustration of why we were so lucky to have Bruce Bochy managing the Giants postseason runs of 2010, 2013 and 2014 and why he is going to the Hall of Fame.
The postgame commentators on TBS were critical of Roberts for letting Clayton Kershaw pitch the 8'th inning after striking out Adam Eaton on 3 pitches to end the 7'th. Even though Bochy used Madison Bumgarner to close out Game 7 of the WS in 2014, I'm not sure he would be using his ace SP's in relief game after game like managers are doing this year. Nevertheless, I didn't think it was so bad for Roberts to try to let Kershaw get the game to Kenley Jansen for the 9'th. What I don't understand is why on Earth, in a tie game at home, an elimination game, no less, Roberts would not bring Jansen in after Joe Kelly walked Eaton to lead off the 10'th inning. The home closer cannot get a Save in extra innings, so you use him in the 9'th and/or 10'th innings trying to give your team a chance for a walkoff. Now, the Nationals didn't seem to be seeing Kelly well in the 9'th, so I can understand Roberts wanting to get another inning out of him, but my gosh, after he walked the leadoff batter, I'm thinking, Bruce Bochy would be walking to the mound right about now. Jansen was already warmed up!
So several narratives continued to play out tonight: 1. Dodgers futility in the postseason. 2. Clayton Kershaw's postseason struggles continue(I actually felt sorry for him tonight, but not enough to wish the Dodgers had won the game). 3. Dave Roberts continues to lose postseason games with his decisionmaking, the type of decisions opposing managers made repeatedly but Bruce Bochy did not make during the Giants 3 postseason runs.
I actually had a terrible thought after this game: I wonder if the Dodgers might fire Dave Roberts and hire Bruce Bochy to manage them in 2020?
*********************************************************************************
Speaking of terrible thoughts: Joey Bart was hit on the hand with a pitch in last night's Arizona Fall League game and suffered a non-displaced fracture of his thumb. It should be all healed in about 6 weeks and he should be ready for spring training, but a second hand fracture from a HBP in one season is just a bit disconcerting.
The postgame commentators on TBS were critical of Roberts for letting Clayton Kershaw pitch the 8'th inning after striking out Adam Eaton on 3 pitches to end the 7'th. Even though Bochy used Madison Bumgarner to close out Game 7 of the WS in 2014, I'm not sure he would be using his ace SP's in relief game after game like managers are doing this year. Nevertheless, I didn't think it was so bad for Roberts to try to let Kershaw get the game to Kenley Jansen for the 9'th. What I don't understand is why on Earth, in a tie game at home, an elimination game, no less, Roberts would not bring Jansen in after Joe Kelly walked Eaton to lead off the 10'th inning. The home closer cannot get a Save in extra innings, so you use him in the 9'th and/or 10'th innings trying to give your team a chance for a walkoff. Now, the Nationals didn't seem to be seeing Kelly well in the 9'th, so I can understand Roberts wanting to get another inning out of him, but my gosh, after he walked the leadoff batter, I'm thinking, Bruce Bochy would be walking to the mound right about now. Jansen was already warmed up!
So several narratives continued to play out tonight: 1. Dodgers futility in the postseason. 2. Clayton Kershaw's postseason struggles continue(I actually felt sorry for him tonight, but not enough to wish the Dodgers had won the game). 3. Dave Roberts continues to lose postseason games with his decisionmaking, the type of decisions opposing managers made repeatedly but Bruce Bochy did not make during the Giants 3 postseason runs.
I actually had a terrible thought after this game: I wonder if the Dodgers might fire Dave Roberts and hire Bruce Bochy to manage them in 2020?
*********************************************************************************
Speaking of terrible thoughts: Joey Bart was hit on the hand with a pitch in last night's Arizona Fall League game and suffered a non-displaced fracture of his thumb. It should be all healed in about 6 weeks and he should be ready for spring training, but a second hand fracture from a HBP in one season is just a bit disconcerting.
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Giants 2019 Draft Review: Rounds 11-20
As before, grades are for fun and present performance, not projected future value.
Round 11, #326. Trevor McDonald RHP, HS. DOB: 2/26/2001. 6'2", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 2 BB, 8 K.
Big overslot bonus. Miniscule sample size. Very projectable frame with solid present stuff. Grade C(due to sample size).
*********************************************************************************
Round 12, #356. Chris Wright LHP. College(Bryant). DOB: 10/14/1998. 6'1", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 2.03, 13.1 IP, 8 BB, 8 K. Low level of competition. ERA OK, but K and BB's not encouraging. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 13, #386. Harrison Freed OF. College(Butler). DOB: 5/13/1998. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .440/.500/.680, 3 2B, HR, 30 PA.
Short Season: .263/.325/.453, 15 2B, 7 HR, 6.7 BB%, 29.6 K%, 179 PA.
Profiles as a bad body corner OF type with some pop in his bat. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
Round 14, #416. Nick Morreale RHP. College(Georgetown). DOB: 7/27/1997. 6'5", 220 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 1.52, 23.2 IP, 8 BB, 24 K.
Big, hard throwing RHP. Ranked #193 by MLB Pipeline. Rap is he couldn't hold velocity past first few innings, so may profile as a reliever. Nice project for the Driveline crew. Grade C(level too low).
*********************************************************************************
Round 15, #446. Carter Aldrete IF. College(ASU). DOB: 10/12/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .258/.378/.348, 3 2B, HR, 15.9 BB%, 17.1 K%, 82 PA.
Short Season: .257/.347/.416, 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 11.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 118 PA.
MLB bloodlines. Kind of average low ceiling college draftee with average numbers in pro debut. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 16, #476. Brandon Martorano C. College(UNC). DOB: 1/6/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 198 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .238/.238/.524, 2B, 3B, HR, 0.0 BB%, 47.6 K%, 21 PA.
Short Season: .260/.365/.385, 3 2B, 3 HR, 14.7 BB%, 31 K%, 116 PA.
Kind of a roster-filler, low ceiling college pick. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 17, #506. Connor Cannon 1B. College(UC Riverside). DOB: 5/16/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'5", 240 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .326/.399/.689, 7 2B, 3B, 13 HR, 7.4 BB$, 25 K%, 148 PA.
Short Season: .286/.286/.286, 7 PA.
Huge power. Needs to show it at higher levels. Grade C+(level too low).
*********************************************************************************
Round 18, #536. Cole Waites RHP. College(West Alabama). DOB: 6/10/1998. 6'3", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 1-1, 6.23, 17.1 IP, 13 BB, 28 K's.
Lot of K's, lots of walks, level too low. SSS. Grade D(the K's are intriguing, though).
*********************************************************************************
Round 19, #566. Kanoa Pagan RHP. JC(CA). DOB: 9/29/1998. 6'2", 190 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 6.14, 14.2 IP, 11 BB, 21 K.
Walks obviously an issue, but SSS. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
Round 20, #596. Najee Gaskins OF. College(St Cloud St). DOB: 9/7/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 185 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .340/.474/.453, 8 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB, 14.9 BB%, 14.2 K%, 134 PA.
Speedy CF profile. Can he hit for enough power to make pitchers respect him at higher levels? Grade C+(Level too low).
Round 11, #326. Trevor McDonald RHP, HS. DOB: 2/26/2001. 6'2", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 2.25, 4 IP, 2 BB, 8 K.
Big overslot bonus. Miniscule sample size. Very projectable frame with solid present stuff. Grade C(due to sample size).
*********************************************************************************
Round 12, #356. Chris Wright LHP. College(Bryant). DOB: 10/14/1998. 6'1", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 2.03, 13.1 IP, 8 BB, 8 K. Low level of competition. ERA OK, but K and BB's not encouraging. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 13, #386. Harrison Freed OF. College(Butler). DOB: 5/13/1998. B-R, T-R. 5'11", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .440/.500/.680, 3 2B, HR, 30 PA.
Short Season: .263/.325/.453, 15 2B, 7 HR, 6.7 BB%, 29.6 K%, 179 PA.
Profiles as a bad body corner OF type with some pop in his bat. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
Round 14, #416. Nick Morreale RHP. College(Georgetown). DOB: 7/27/1997. 6'5", 220 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 1.52, 23.2 IP, 8 BB, 24 K.
Big, hard throwing RHP. Ranked #193 by MLB Pipeline. Rap is he couldn't hold velocity past first few innings, so may profile as a reliever. Nice project for the Driveline crew. Grade C(level too low).
*********************************************************************************
Round 15, #446. Carter Aldrete IF. College(ASU). DOB: 10/12/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .258/.378/.348, 3 2B, HR, 15.9 BB%, 17.1 K%, 82 PA.
Short Season: .257/.347/.416, 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 11.9 BB%, 24.6 K%, 118 PA.
MLB bloodlines. Kind of average low ceiling college draftee with average numbers in pro debut. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 16, #476. Brandon Martorano C. College(UNC). DOB: 1/6/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'2", 198 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .238/.238/.524, 2B, 3B, HR, 0.0 BB%, 47.6 K%, 21 PA.
Short Season: .260/.365/.385, 3 2B, 3 HR, 14.7 BB%, 31 K%, 116 PA.
Kind of a roster-filler, low ceiling college pick. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Round 17, #506. Connor Cannon 1B. College(UC Riverside). DOB: 5/16/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'5", 240 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .326/.399/.689, 7 2B, 3B, 13 HR, 7.4 BB$, 25 K%, 148 PA.
Short Season: .286/.286/.286, 7 PA.
Huge power. Needs to show it at higher levels. Grade C+(level too low).
*********************************************************************************
Round 18, #536. Cole Waites RHP. College(West Alabama). DOB: 6/10/1998. 6'3", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 1-1, 6.23, 17.1 IP, 13 BB, 28 K's.
Lot of K's, lots of walks, level too low. SSS. Grade D(the K's are intriguing, though).
*********************************************************************************
Round 19, #566. Kanoa Pagan RHP. JC(CA). DOB: 9/29/1998. 6'2", 190 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-1, 6.14, 14.2 IP, 11 BB, 21 K.
Walks obviously an issue, but SSS. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
Round 20, #596. Najee Gaskins OF. College(St Cloud St). DOB: 9/7/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 185 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .340/.474/.453, 8 2B, 2 3B, 19 SB, 14.9 BB%, 14.2 K%, 134 PA.
Speedy CF profile. Can he hit for enough power to make pitchers respect him at higher levels? Grade C+(Level too low).
Giants Depth Charts: First Base
If you are my age or older, you cut your teeth on a Giants lineup that included Hall of Famer Willie McCovey absolutely terrorizing opposing pitchers. If you are about 20 years younger, you grew up with a near HOF'er, Will Clark, and his sweet swing putting up MVP numbers from the position. First base is supposed to be the easiest position to find offense, but since Will Clark, Giants fans have had to watch the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Adrian Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo and Pete Alonso play for other teams. Yeah, I know, the Belt Wars. Don't tell me Brandon Belt is anywhere close to the same tier as Goldy, let alone Will Clark or Willie McCovey. Brandon Belt was supposed to be that guy, and he's been very good at times, but has never quite gotten there much to the frustration of many Giants fans. He's now coming off the worst season and appears to be about done barring some serious conditioning and/or retooling of his swing and approach. Giants fans longing for the days of Will Clark and Willie Mac will not be happy with the current depth chart, at all!
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Brandon Belt
Austin Slater
Chris Shaw
Zach Green
Buster Posey
Aramis Garcia
Belt is Belt. He has two years and about $30 M left on his contract. The Giants have 3 choices with him: 1. Keep running him out there and hope for better results. 2. Trade him and eat a big part of his contract or else take a bad contract for another position, say pitcher, back. 3. Just release him and eat the contract. The biggest problem with #2 and #3 is none of the other 40 man options are appealing to take his place. Maybe create a platoon out of Slater and Shaw? To significantly improve on the meager production Belt gives, they would have to pay retail prices in free agency or trade prospects for an upgrade in addition to eating all or most of Belt's contract.
AAA:
None.
Brock Stassi is listed on the River Cats roster, but I'm pretty sure he is a free agent and not really a depth option anyway.
AA:
Gio Brusa
The Mayor of San Jose finally gave up the keys to the city and moved to Richmond. He's strictly an organizational player at this point.
A+:
None.
David Villar played some 1B but was rated the best defensive 3B in the Cal League(I think I read that somewhere) and is being developed as a 3B.
A:
Logan Wyatt
Frankie Tostado
Jacob Gonzalez
Wyatt was the Giants second round draft pick this year. His power is questionable for the position. Frankie Tostado showed nice power. Listed as an OF on the roster. Jacob Gonzalez is probably more likely to be released than promoted for 2020.
Short Season:
Connor Cannon
Beicker Mendoza
Cannon is a late round draftee who was injured a lot in college. He showed "light-tower" power in the AZL but now needs to show it at higher levels. Mendoza has been playing in the Giants system for 5 years. He carries a .281 career BA but with just a .398 SLG%.
Rookie AZL:
Garrett Frechette
Francisco Medina
Ismael Alcantara
Victor Bericoto
Frechette has a sweet swing and got an above-slot bonus in the draft so he's someone to watch going forward. Medina showed intriguing power in the DSL way back in 2015, but not a lot since. Alcantara was signed for $300 K back in 2016 but hasn't found traction in 3 rookie league seasons. Victor Bericoto is a 17 yo who raked in the DSL and got a rare late season promotion to Arizona.
DSL:
Samuel Jorge
Ronaldo Flores
Rayner Santana
Samuel Jorge has not found traction in 3 DSL seasons. Flores split time between catcher and 1B. Santana played 1 game at 1B.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Brandon Belt
Austin Slater
Chris Shaw
Zach Green
Buster Posey
Aramis Garcia
Belt is Belt. He has two years and about $30 M left on his contract. The Giants have 3 choices with him: 1. Keep running him out there and hope for better results. 2. Trade him and eat a big part of his contract or else take a bad contract for another position, say pitcher, back. 3. Just release him and eat the contract. The biggest problem with #2 and #3 is none of the other 40 man options are appealing to take his place. Maybe create a platoon out of Slater and Shaw? To significantly improve on the meager production Belt gives, they would have to pay retail prices in free agency or trade prospects for an upgrade in addition to eating all or most of Belt's contract.
AAA:
None.
Brock Stassi is listed on the River Cats roster, but I'm pretty sure he is a free agent and not really a depth option anyway.
AA:
Gio Brusa
The Mayor of San Jose finally gave up the keys to the city and moved to Richmond. He's strictly an organizational player at this point.
A+:
None.
David Villar played some 1B but was rated the best defensive 3B in the Cal League(I think I read that somewhere) and is being developed as a 3B.
A:
Logan Wyatt
Frankie Tostado
Jacob Gonzalez
Wyatt was the Giants second round draft pick this year. His power is questionable for the position. Frankie Tostado showed nice power. Listed as an OF on the roster. Jacob Gonzalez is probably more likely to be released than promoted for 2020.
Short Season:
Connor Cannon
Beicker Mendoza
Cannon is a late round draftee who was injured a lot in college. He showed "light-tower" power in the AZL but now needs to show it at higher levels. Mendoza has been playing in the Giants system for 5 years. He carries a .281 career BA but with just a .398 SLG%.
Rookie AZL:
Garrett Frechette
Francisco Medina
Ismael Alcantara
Victor Bericoto
Frechette has a sweet swing and got an above-slot bonus in the draft so he's someone to watch going forward. Medina showed intriguing power in the DSL way back in 2015, but not a lot since. Alcantara was signed for $300 K back in 2016 but hasn't found traction in 3 rookie league seasons. Victor Bericoto is a 17 yo who raked in the DSL and got a rare late season promotion to Arizona.
DSL:
Samuel Jorge
Ronaldo Flores
Rayner Santana
Samuel Jorge has not found traction in 3 DSL seasons. Flores split time between catcher and 1B. Santana played 1 game at 1B.
Sunday, October 6, 2019
Armchair GM: Should the Giants Try to Compete in 2020?
My friend, LG, asked this question today in the AQA post. It's a great question and I'm afraid if I answer it in the response post, most readers will miss it. It's such a great question, I decided to turn my response into a separate post. The short answer, in the immortal words of Timmy Lincecum, is $&%# yeah! But let's drill down a bit here.
I am so sick of reading and listening to the false narrative that the Giants and Farhan Zaidi are so hamstrung by all these albatross contracts with no way out until 2022. I am going to start with a simple theorem: The Giants can easily afford a payroll up to the CBT threshold. Now, I'm actually pretty sure they can afford much more than that, but I'm happy to stipulate that it's a good thing for them to not exceed it, at least by more than a marginal amount. BTW, I will use Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll And Tax Tracker for my numbers.
I'm not sure how many fans realize this amidst all the moaning about all the crippling contracts for the "core", but the Giants actually came in around $30 M under the CBT threshold this season. That is $30 M that got distributed to the owners instead of to players who are better than Connor Joe. Now, I'm as thrilled as anyone that Farhan was able to churn his way to adding Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon to the organization and that he was able to find such great bench guys as Donovan Solano and Steven Vogt, but nothing about spending a few $ M in the offseason for a decent corner OF and SP would have prevented him from finding those guys. Instead, he threw away the first two months of the season with below-replacement guys like Connor Joe and Icant Rememberhisname playing OF and Erik Kratz as the backup catcher. Had the Giants been even within hailing distance of .500 for those first 2 months, they might have actually led the Wild Card race and the trade deadline might have looked a lot different. But that's water under the bridge at this point.
Again, using Cot's Payroll and Tax Tracker, the Giants are on the hook for just $117 M for 2020. Yes, that is assuming Bumgarner and Will Smith don't accept their QO's and does not count the arbitration eligible players, but it's still a whopping $91 M under the CBT Threshold. For those of you who are curious, here's a list of the Giants arbitration eligible players: Kevin Pillar, Kyle Barraclough, Alex Dickerson, Wandy Peralta, Joey Rickard, Jandel Gustave, Austin Slater and Burch Smith. The only one of those who figures to make much over $1 M is Pillar and he's not a lock to be tendered a contract. In fact, I bet he won't if he doesn't agree to terms before the arbitration deadline. Most of the rest will likely be long gone by the arbitration deadline let alone tendered a contract. So yes, the Giants really do have between $70 and 90 M to work with this offseason. Shark comes off the books after next season then the rest of the core contracts come off after 2021. The Giants are absolutely not hamstrung with bad contracts in either the short or long term. In fact, they are in such great shape they could even afford to just eat 1 or 2 of those contracts and still have plenty left over to spend on new players!
Farhan can spend it any way he wants. Does he want to put half his chips into Gerrit Cole? I'm down for it! Would he rather spread it around on 3-4 mid-range FA's on shorter contracts? I'd be OK with that too. But if he does nothing but churn the waiver wires and non-tender lists, he's cheating the fanbase out of competitive Giants baseball, simple as that! We should be demanding more.
Of course, all of the above is just my opinion.
I am so sick of reading and listening to the false narrative that the Giants and Farhan Zaidi are so hamstrung by all these albatross contracts with no way out until 2022. I am going to start with a simple theorem: The Giants can easily afford a payroll up to the CBT threshold. Now, I'm actually pretty sure they can afford much more than that, but I'm happy to stipulate that it's a good thing for them to not exceed it, at least by more than a marginal amount. BTW, I will use Cot's Baseball Contracts Payroll And Tax Tracker for my numbers.
I'm not sure how many fans realize this amidst all the moaning about all the crippling contracts for the "core", but the Giants actually came in around $30 M under the CBT threshold this season. That is $30 M that got distributed to the owners instead of to players who are better than Connor Joe. Now, I'm as thrilled as anyone that Farhan was able to churn his way to adding Mike Yastrzemski and Mauricio Dubon to the organization and that he was able to find such great bench guys as Donovan Solano and Steven Vogt, but nothing about spending a few $ M in the offseason for a decent corner OF and SP would have prevented him from finding those guys. Instead, he threw away the first two months of the season with below-replacement guys like Connor Joe and Icant Rememberhisname playing OF and Erik Kratz as the backup catcher. Had the Giants been even within hailing distance of .500 for those first 2 months, they might have actually led the Wild Card race and the trade deadline might have looked a lot different. But that's water under the bridge at this point.
Again, using Cot's Payroll and Tax Tracker, the Giants are on the hook for just $117 M for 2020. Yes, that is assuming Bumgarner and Will Smith don't accept their QO's and does not count the arbitration eligible players, but it's still a whopping $91 M under the CBT Threshold. For those of you who are curious, here's a list of the Giants arbitration eligible players: Kevin Pillar, Kyle Barraclough, Alex Dickerson, Wandy Peralta, Joey Rickard, Jandel Gustave, Austin Slater and Burch Smith. The only one of those who figures to make much over $1 M is Pillar and he's not a lock to be tendered a contract. In fact, I bet he won't if he doesn't agree to terms before the arbitration deadline. Most of the rest will likely be long gone by the arbitration deadline let alone tendered a contract. So yes, the Giants really do have between $70 and 90 M to work with this offseason. Shark comes off the books after next season then the rest of the core contracts come off after 2021. The Giants are absolutely not hamstrung with bad contracts in either the short or long term. In fact, they are in such great shape they could even afford to just eat 1 or 2 of those contracts and still have plenty left over to spend on new players!
Farhan can spend it any way he wants. Does he want to put half his chips into Gerrit Cole? I'm down for it! Would he rather spread it around on 3-4 mid-range FA's on shorter contracts? I'd be OK with that too. But if he does nothing but churn the waiver wires and non-tender lists, he's cheating the fanbase out of competitive Giants baseball, simple as that! We should be demanding more.
Of course, all of the above is just my opinion.
2019 Draft Review: Rounds 1-10
Those of you who have been around here awhile know we start scouting the draft during to offseason, because it's fun and because things get too busy once he season starts. Before we get into scouting drat prospects for 2020, let's review the 2019 draft to see the early returns. While it is generally better for a drafted and signed player to get off to a good start to their career, a good start does not mean they are a great prospect and a slow start does not mean they are a bad prospect. Grades are for fun and are for performance only not a measure of value as a prospect.
Round 1 #10: Hunter Bishop, OF, College(ASU). DOB: 6/25/1998. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 210 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 31.0 BB%, 37.9 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season: .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 24.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 117 PA.
Not sure what to make of Hunter Bishop's pro debut. I don't recall seeing or even hearing of a more extreme 3 true outcomes approach this early in a career. How that plays at higher levels is something to watch closely. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 2 #51: Logan Wyatt, 1B/OF, College(Louisville). DOB: 11/15/1997. B- L, T-R. 6'4", 230 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .375/.448/.417, 2B, 13.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season: .284/.385/.403, 2 2B, 2 HR, 12.8 BB%, 11.5 K%, 78 PA.
A: .233/.368/.333, 3 2B, HR, 15.8 BB%, 18.4 K%, 76 PA.
Nice plate discipline but disappointing power from a guy who projects as a 1B only. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 3 #87: Grant McCray, OF, HS. DOB: 12/7/2000. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 170 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .270/.379/.335, 5 2B, 2 3B, HR, 17 SB, 13 CS, 13.6 BB%, 24.5 K%, 220 PA.
Relatively unknown before the draft. Got off to a slow start hitting just .114 in June, but then took off, hitting .292 in July and .321 in August. Has projectable power. Needs to cut down on CS to be a base stealing threat at higher levels. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 4 #116. Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, College(Louisville). DOB: 9/15/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .273/.308/.636, 2B, HR, 13 PA.
Short Season: .284/.381/.431, 11 2B, 2 3B, 12.7 BB%, 20.3 K%, 118 PA.
A: .264/.333/.306, 3 2B, 9.6 BB%, 20.5 K%, 83 PA.
Hit for decent BA with doubles power and strong plate discipline. No word on defense at SS. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 5 #146. Garrett Frechette 1B, HS. DOB: 12/31/2000. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 200 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .290/.364/.366, 7 2B, 2 3B, 6.7 BB%, 21.1 K%, 165 PA.
Giants landed this sweet-swinging HS prospect with an above-slot bonus. Hit well at appropriate level. Power will have to develop given 1B profile. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 6, #176. Dilan Rosario SS, HS. DOB: 06/16/2001. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .214/.254/.364, 9 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 9 SB, 5.5 BB%, 35.8 K%.
Another above-slot bonus. Impressive power but with severe contact and plate discipline issues. Has time to develop those. No word on defense. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
Round 7, #206. Armani Smith OF, College(UCSB). DOB: 8/7/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .211/.318/.316, 3B, SB, 13.6 BB%, 31.8 K%, 22 PA.
Short Season: .307/.372/.454, 6 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 2 SB, 9.8 BB%, 30.1 K%, 183 PA.
Strong slash line at appropriate level. K rate needs to come down. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 8, #236. Caleb Kilian RHP, College(Texas Tech). DOB: 6/2/1997. 6'4", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 0.00, 12 IP, 8.25 K/9, 1.50 BB/9.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.
Giants finally drafted a pitcher in round 8. Extremely conservative placement and innings limits. Pitched well in extremely small sample. Grade C(I'm actually bullish on him going forward).
*********************************************************************************
Round 9, #266. Simon Whiteman SS, College(Yale). DOB: 1/28/1997. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 165 lbs.
Short Season: .279/.401/.349, 7 2B, 3B, 15 SB, 8 CS, 15.8 BB%, 14.6 K%, 158 PA.
A: .269/.371/.277, 2B, 16 SB, 3 CS, 13.2 BB$, 23.7 K%, 152 PA.
College Senior signed way underslot. Pretty strong numbers with fairly aggressive placement. Obvious lack of power may catch up at higher levels. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 10, #296. Jeff Houghtby 2B, College(San Diego). DOB: 5/13/1997. B-L, T-R. 5'11", 175 lbs.
Short Season: .235/.343/.382, 16 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 2 SB, 11.7 BB%, 20.9 K%, 239 PA.
Another college senior underslot bonus. Nice walk rate with gap power but disappointing BA. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Giants signed all 10 of their top 10 draft picks. All performed well in their pro debuts but with no outstanding performances.
Round 1 #10: Hunter Bishop, OF, College(ASU). DOB: 6/25/1998. B-L, T-R. 6'5", 210 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 31.0 BB%, 37.9 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season: .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 24.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 117 PA.
Not sure what to make of Hunter Bishop's pro debut. I don't recall seeing or even hearing of a more extreme 3 true outcomes approach this early in a career. How that plays at higher levels is something to watch closely. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 2 #51: Logan Wyatt, 1B/OF, College(Louisville). DOB: 11/15/1997. B- L, T-R. 6'4", 230 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .375/.448/.417, 2B, 13.8 BB%, 20.7 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season: .284/.385/.403, 2 2B, 2 HR, 12.8 BB%, 11.5 K%, 78 PA.
A: .233/.368/.333, 3 2B, HR, 15.8 BB%, 18.4 K%, 76 PA.
Nice plate discipline but disappointing power from a guy who projects as a 1B only. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 3 #87: Grant McCray, OF, HS. DOB: 12/7/2000. B-L, T-R. 6'2", 170 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .270/.379/.335, 5 2B, 2 3B, HR, 17 SB, 13 CS, 13.6 BB%, 24.5 K%, 220 PA.
Relatively unknown before the draft. Got off to a slow start hitting just .114 in June, but then took off, hitting .292 in July and .321 in August. Has projectable power. Needs to cut down on CS to be a base stealing threat at higher levels. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 4 #116. Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, College(Louisville). DOB: 9/15/1997. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 205 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .273/.308/.636, 2B, HR, 13 PA.
Short Season: .284/.381/.431, 11 2B, 2 3B, 12.7 BB%, 20.3 K%, 118 PA.
A: .264/.333/.306, 3 2B, 9.6 BB%, 20.5 K%, 83 PA.
Hit for decent BA with doubles power and strong plate discipline. No word on defense at SS. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 5 #146. Garrett Frechette 1B, HS. DOB: 12/31/2000. B-L, T-L. 6'3", 200 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .290/.364/.366, 7 2B, 2 3B, 6.7 BB%, 21.1 K%, 165 PA.
Giants landed this sweet-swinging HS prospect with an above-slot bonus. Hit well at appropriate level. Power will have to develop given 1B profile. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 6, #176. Dilan Rosario SS, HS. DOB: 06/16/2001. B-R, T-R. 6'0", 175 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .214/.254/.364, 9 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 9 SB, 5.5 BB%, 35.8 K%.
Another above-slot bonus. Impressive power but with severe contact and plate discipline issues. Has time to develop those. No word on defense. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
Round 7, #206. Armani Smith OF, College(UCSB). DOB: 8/7/1998. B-R, T-R. 6'4", 215 lbs.
Rookie AZL: .211/.318/.316, 3B, SB, 13.6 BB%, 31.8 K%, 22 PA.
Short Season: .307/.372/.454, 6 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 2 SB, 9.8 BB%, 30.1 K%, 183 PA.
Strong slash line at appropriate level. K rate needs to come down. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 8, #236. Caleb Kilian RHP, College(Texas Tech). DOB: 6/2/1997. 6'4", 180 lbs.
Rookie AZL: 0-0, 0.00, 12 IP, 8.25 K/9, 1.50 BB/9.
Short Season: 0-0, 0.00, 4 IP, 13.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.
Giants finally drafted a pitcher in round 8. Extremely conservative placement and innings limits. Pitched well in extremely small sample. Grade C(I'm actually bullish on him going forward).
*********************************************************************************
Round 9, #266. Simon Whiteman SS, College(Yale). DOB: 1/28/1997. B-R, T-R. 5'10", 165 lbs.
Short Season: .279/.401/.349, 7 2B, 3B, 15 SB, 8 CS, 15.8 BB%, 14.6 K%, 158 PA.
A: .269/.371/.277, 2B, 16 SB, 3 CS, 13.2 BB$, 23.7 K%, 152 PA.
College Senior signed way underslot. Pretty strong numbers with fairly aggressive placement. Obvious lack of power may catch up at higher levels. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
Round 10, #296. Jeff Houghtby 2B, College(San Diego). DOB: 5/13/1997. B-L, T-R. 5'11", 175 lbs.
Short Season: .235/.343/.382, 16 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 2 SB, 11.7 BB%, 20.9 K%, 239 PA.
Another college senior underslot bonus. Nice walk rate with gap power but disappointing BA. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
Giants signed all 10 of their top 10 draft picks. All performed well in their pro debuts but with no outstanding performances.
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Giants Depth Charts: Catcher
We'll start our annual Depth Charts series which as originally a commenter suggestion and has now become an annual ritual for When the Giants Come to Town. The purpose of doing this at the end of each season is to get a better idea of what assets the Giants have within the organization which informs their offseason needs. We start with the 40 man roster and work our way down to the DSL so we also get in a bit of prospecting in the process. We'll start off with the Catcher position.
40 man MLB Roster:
1. Buster Posey
2. Aramis Garcia
Steven Vogt is a free agent who IMO, the Giants should bring back. His left-handed bat and ability to play some LF compliments Buster Posey well. Buster Posey himself is coming off the worst season of his career, by far. Will a full offseason a full year after hip surgery give him a chance to build his leg strength back or re-tool his swing mechanics? Will that translate into improved offensive production? One minor mystery is why he had a stellar defensive season, especially throwing out baserunners, yet seemed to have no base at the plate? Aramis Garcia has toonder in his bat, but when you strike out at a rate of 45%, it's hard to tap into. Is it possible for him to cut that down significantly at this point in his career?
AAA:
None.
I'm pretty sure Francisco Pena and Ronnie Freeman are both free agents. Pena had a strong season in a crazy hitter's environment. He's probably worth bringing back for MLB depth.
AA:
Joey Bart
Joey Bart is the guy to be excited about on this list. He is coming fast after going on a small sample size tear after his late season promotion to Richmond. He's currently blasting the Arizona Fall League too. If he keeps this up, the Giants will be faced with some tough calls about how to juggle the beginning of Joey's MLB career with the end of Buster Posey's. I'm pretty sure Jin-De Jhang and Matt Winn currently listed on the Flying Squirrels roster are both free agents.
A+:
Fabian Pena
Chris Corbett
Pena was a 25'th round draft pick in 2018 out of an obscure program(Manhattan). Hit just .222 in 144 AB for the SJ Giants but this was a very aggressive placement for him. Corbett was an 18'th round pick in 2017 out of an even more obscure Rollins(FL). He has struggled to hit at all in the pros(.169 for 2 teams in 2019). Hamlet Marte is listed on the SJ Giants roster, but I think he is a free agent.
A:
Ricardo Genoves
Jeffry Parra
Andres Angulo
Genoves was a 6-figure international bonus baby way back in 2015. Hard to believe he's already played 4 professional seasons, but he's still just 20 yo. He had a bit of a power breakout in 2019 hitting 9 HR in 196 AB for Salem-Keizer and Augusta. Jeffry Parra was a 24 round draft pick in 2016 out of HS(NY). His bat has just never come around and he hit just .161 for Augusta in 2019. Angulo has played 5 pro seasons but it took him 4 seasons to get out of rookie ball. He hit just .210 in 252 AB for the Greenjackets in 2019.
Short Season:
Matt Malkin
Brandon Martorano
Martorano was drafted in the 16'th round(2019) out of North Carolina and was assigned to S-K after just 21 AB in Arizona. He slashed .260/.365/.385 with 3 HR in 96 AB. Malkin was an undrafted free agent(23 yo) who hit .309 for 4 different teams mostly with Giants Black(AZL).
Rookie AZL:
Cesar Gonzalez
Keyberth Mejias
Rodolfo Bone
Angel Guzman
Omar Medina
Gonzalez is 18 yo and OPS'd 1.032 in 37 AB for the DSL Giants in 2018. He hit just .200 in 60 AB for Giants Black in 2019. Mejias is a 20 yo DSL graduate who hit just .161 between Giants Black and S-K in 2019. Braden Frankfort is listed on the Giants Black roster but was placed on the restricted list in April. Everybody's favorite name, Rodolfo Bone(19 yo) hit .317 for the DSL Giants in 2018, .240 for Giants Orange in 2019. Angel Guzman(19 yo) was drafted in the 21'st round in 2018. He hit .289 in 45 AB for Giants Black in 2018 but just .081 in 37 AB for Giants Orange in 2019. Omar Medina(19 yo) started 2019 in his third DSL season. He hit .317 and got a midseason promotion to Arizona where he hit just .169 in 71 AB.
DSL:
Ronaldo Flores
Rayner Santana
Eduardo Jaramillo
Flores(17 yo) slashed .325/.370/.408 in his pro debut. Santana(17 yo) played most of his debut season at age 16 and led the DSL Giants in HR's with 10 while hitting .294. Jaramillo(17 yo) hit just .176 in 85 AB.
40 man MLB Roster:
1. Buster Posey
2. Aramis Garcia
Steven Vogt is a free agent who IMO, the Giants should bring back. His left-handed bat and ability to play some LF compliments Buster Posey well. Buster Posey himself is coming off the worst season of his career, by far. Will a full offseason a full year after hip surgery give him a chance to build his leg strength back or re-tool his swing mechanics? Will that translate into improved offensive production? One minor mystery is why he had a stellar defensive season, especially throwing out baserunners, yet seemed to have no base at the plate? Aramis Garcia has toonder in his bat, but when you strike out at a rate of 45%, it's hard to tap into. Is it possible for him to cut that down significantly at this point in his career?
AAA:
None.
I'm pretty sure Francisco Pena and Ronnie Freeman are both free agents. Pena had a strong season in a crazy hitter's environment. He's probably worth bringing back for MLB depth.
AA:
Joey Bart
Joey Bart is the guy to be excited about on this list. He is coming fast after going on a small sample size tear after his late season promotion to Richmond. He's currently blasting the Arizona Fall League too. If he keeps this up, the Giants will be faced with some tough calls about how to juggle the beginning of Joey's MLB career with the end of Buster Posey's. I'm pretty sure Jin-De Jhang and Matt Winn currently listed on the Flying Squirrels roster are both free agents.
A+:
Fabian Pena
Chris Corbett
Pena was a 25'th round draft pick in 2018 out of an obscure program(Manhattan). Hit just .222 in 144 AB for the SJ Giants but this was a very aggressive placement for him. Corbett was an 18'th round pick in 2017 out of an even more obscure Rollins(FL). He has struggled to hit at all in the pros(.169 for 2 teams in 2019). Hamlet Marte is listed on the SJ Giants roster, but I think he is a free agent.
A:
Ricardo Genoves
Jeffry Parra
Andres Angulo
Genoves was a 6-figure international bonus baby way back in 2015. Hard to believe he's already played 4 professional seasons, but he's still just 20 yo. He had a bit of a power breakout in 2019 hitting 9 HR in 196 AB for Salem-Keizer and Augusta. Jeffry Parra was a 24 round draft pick in 2016 out of HS(NY). His bat has just never come around and he hit just .161 for Augusta in 2019. Angulo has played 5 pro seasons but it took him 4 seasons to get out of rookie ball. He hit just .210 in 252 AB for the Greenjackets in 2019.
Short Season:
Matt Malkin
Brandon Martorano
Martorano was drafted in the 16'th round(2019) out of North Carolina and was assigned to S-K after just 21 AB in Arizona. He slashed .260/.365/.385 with 3 HR in 96 AB. Malkin was an undrafted free agent(23 yo) who hit .309 for 4 different teams mostly with Giants Black(AZL).
Rookie AZL:
Cesar Gonzalez
Keyberth Mejias
Rodolfo Bone
Angel Guzman
Omar Medina
Gonzalez is 18 yo and OPS'd 1.032 in 37 AB for the DSL Giants in 2018. He hit just .200 in 60 AB for Giants Black in 2019. Mejias is a 20 yo DSL graduate who hit just .161 between Giants Black and S-K in 2019. Braden Frankfort is listed on the Giants Black roster but was placed on the restricted list in April. Everybody's favorite name, Rodolfo Bone(19 yo) hit .317 for the DSL Giants in 2018, .240 for Giants Orange in 2019. Angel Guzman(19 yo) was drafted in the 21'st round in 2018. He hit .289 in 45 AB for Giants Black in 2018 but just .081 in 37 AB for Giants Orange in 2019. Omar Medina(19 yo) started 2019 in his third DSL season. He hit .317 and got a midseason promotion to Arizona where he hit just .169 in 71 AB.
DSL:
Ronaldo Flores
Rayner Santana
Eduardo Jaramillo
Flores(17 yo) slashed .325/.370/.408 in his pro debut. Santana(17 yo) played most of his debut season at age 16 and led the DSL Giants in HR's with 10 while hitting .294. Jaramillo(17 yo) hit just .176 in 85 AB.
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