Friday, February 21, 2014

AQA

As we wait for the Cactus League season to start, I thought it might be a good time to do a All Questions Answered post since it's been a long time.  Ask any baseball related question in the comments thread Giants, prospects, draft, college, fantasy?  I will do my best to answer it.
Posted by at

40 comments:

  1. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 8:57 AM

    Is it reasonable for the Giants to lock up Belt now? With the chunk of change Freeman got I'd bet Belt will use it for leverage. Can they afford to keep Belt AND Panda?
    J

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:27 PM

      Reasonable, but not essential. The Giants have plenty of time with Brandon Belt. What to do about Pablo longterm is a much more pressing concern.

      Delete
  2. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 9:04 AM

    One more. I'm hearing some buzz about ASU starter Ryan Burr and getting comparisons to Gerrit Cole. What do you know about him?
    J

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:27 PM

      Haven't heard of him. I'll check it out and maybe post a Scouting the Draft Profile. Thanks for the tip.

      Delete
    2. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:45 PM

      Looks like a sophomore, so most likely will be in the 2015 draft class. I'll start looking for his name in draft previews and college box scores.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 2:01 PM

      Thanks Doc. Yeah as for 2014 I'll be looking forward to seeing some draft prospects up close like Zimmer, Conforto, D Davis, Brian Anderson, Blandino and Vanegas
      Just curious what the reeeeeeaaaallllyyyyy early thought on 2015's draft

      Delete
    4. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 8:42 PM

      Gotta think Alex Bregman of LSU is the early favorite to go 1-1 in the 2015 draft.

      Delete
    5. AnonymousFebruary 22, 2014 at 8:22 AM

      I think it was either you or shank who compares Arroyo to him but is his body type similar as well?
      J

      Delete
    6. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 22, 2014 at 9:59 AM

      Bregman is listed at 6'0", 190 lbs, Arroyo at 6'1", 180 lbs. Give Arroyo a couple of years to fill out and yeah, they are pretty much 2 peas in a pod!

      Delete
    7. AnonymousFebruary 22, 2014 at 10:29 AM

      Hmmm but there aren't questions about Bregman's ability to stick at ss?
      J

      Delete
    8. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 22, 2014 at 10:42 AM

      Oh yes, I'm sure there are, but the bat will play at 3B or 2B just fine. Both Bregman and Arroyo are bat-first guys. You draft them for the bat and worry about where they are going to play later.

      Delete
  3. RyanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:29 PM

    How do you feel about lineup configurations? Do you think Bochy could squeeze a few more runs out of the lineup by batting Belt 2nd and Scutaro 7th or 8th?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:37 PM

      I believe there is no evidence that lineup configuration makes much if any difference in run production other than a general principle that you want your best hitters getting more PA's. You also want your best overall power hitter batting 4'th because it is more likely he will come up in the first inning with runners on base than any other spot in the batting order.

      Delete
    2. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:42 PM

      You generally want your high OBP guys at the top of the lineup and the hackers lower down. I say Scutaro vs Belt in the 2 hole is a tossup.

      Delete
    3. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:44 PM

      I believe there are formulas that will tell you optimal lineup configuration. I've never had much interest in those. It just seems to me that they come up with something that is intuitively obvious or it's so off the wall that nobody is going to implement it in real life anyway.

      Delete
  4. RyanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:31 PM

    If you were a betting man, where would you put your money on which position the Giants draft in the first round? Pitcher, outfielder, infielder, catcher?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:39 PM

      1. Pitcher, just because there are more good pitchers available in this draft so the probabilities are it will be a pitcher. 2. Infielder- When the Giants take a position player in the first round, they tend to take an up-the-middle type. Of those types, the most available in this draft are middle infielders. 3. OF 4. Catcher. 5. Corner IF.

      Delete
    2. RyanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:48 PM

      Stick with what they know best. I like it.

      Delete
    3. baseballjunkieFebruary 21, 2014 at 1:22 PM

      The draft is a long way off but would anyone venture to put a guess on the actual player the Giants select at #14? I agree with Doc's thoughts that the Giants are more likely to go with a pitcher given the strength of this draft class. And because left handed pitching is a bit of a rarer commodity than righties, I am going to throw out the name Brandon Finnegan as my prediction for Giants 1st round draft pick. If his first start of the season is an indication of his talent, I would definitely be ok with this pick. If he doesn't make it as a starter he might have the makings of a Billy Wagner-type closer.

      Delete
    4. Spike 1000February 21, 2014 at 3:18 PM

      baseballjunkie, I like where your head is at! Did you see the article about Finnegan and his time with Team USA after going 0-8 last season? It really pumps me up for the chance at him at #14, though he may climb if he has a huge year and his slider is as dominant now as the article makes it out to be (though his size may push him down some teams' boards). Here's the link, I actually posted this to Doc's first post on Friday Night Starts:
      http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/07/26/5033189/tcus-brandon-finnegan-leaves-0.html
      Here's the part of the article on the slider:
      A pointer from North Carolina State left-hander Carlos Rodon before the Japan series helped turn Finnegan’s average slider into a devastating out pitch.
      Rodon, who has the most effective slider in the college game, Schlossnagle said, showed Finnegan how he holds the ball.
      “He told me to throw it like a fastball, to throw it as hard as I could,” Finnegan said. “Before my slider was pretty much 78 to 81, maybe. Changing the grip and the way I thew it I was getting it up to 89 mph the whole game.”
      Before making the change, Finnegan said, the pitch looked more like a slurve, a bit too loopy to be consistently effective.
      “It makes it a lot sharper and a lot harder for guys to hit, obviously,” he said. “It just dives out of the zone real quick. I got to where I could repeat it every game I pitched.”

      Dan

      Delete
    5. baseballjunkieFebruary 21, 2014 at 4:34 PM

      Thanks for the link, Spike 1000! Makes me like Finnegan even more. I think Finnegan may be available to the Giants. This draft is just loaded in arms and some teams would shy away from pitchers who 1) don't fit the classic physical profile, and 2) don't have a long track record of success. The Giants have shown they can think outside the box so it seems Finnegan is someone they might spring for if available.

      Delete
    6. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 4:42 PM

      I might do my own mock draft as we get closer. Projecting a specific player is hard, especially with the Giants. Finnegan does not fit the classic mold of what the Giants seem to look for in the draft, but then again, neither did Timmy. If Matt Imhoff continues to dominate, I could see the Giants taking him as high as #14. Brady Aiken and Touki Toussaint are a couple of HS pitching names I could see them taking. I'll throw 2 more HS names out there: SS/3B Michael Chavis and RHP Michael Kopech.

      Delete
    7. baseballjunkieFebruary 21, 2014 at 6:09 PM

      Yeah, mock drafts are kind of entertaining in a twisted sort of way... just looking back and seeing how wrong all my draft board predictions have been! All except for 2008, when I nailed the first six picks (including Posey to the Giants!). But for the most part I'm happy to get even two or three correct in the first round.
      Chavis and Kopech sound like solid picks, and I'll toss out another Michael I like... Conforto of Oregon St.

      Delete
    8. AnonymousFebruary 22, 2014 at 8:26 AM

      Conforto feels too slow for my comfort. He could end up as a 1st baseman. I like Brad Zimmer and Dylan Davis a little bit more but at 14? Id go hs pitcher as well

      Delete
  5. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:31 PM

    How do you view Gary Brown`s ceiling as a MLB prospect? Will we. ever see him on a MLB roster?

    LG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:40 PM

      If he can get his feet back under him, I he can be a starting CF at the MLB level. I'll say 3 WAR is his ceiling with the majority of his value being on defense.

      Delete
    2. RyanFebruary 21, 2014 at 12:47 PM

      Sounds like Gregor Blanco and that's not a bad thing.

      Delete
    3. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 4:43 PM

      That would actually be a pretty decent return on a #24 overall draft pick.

      Delete
  6. Spike 1000February 21, 2014 at 3:10 PM

    What does everyone think of this POS article by Grant Cohn? I actually left a comment/link to your analysis of left field on 10/24/13 as a reply about Blanco, in the discussion he states that "Blanco stinks". So I dropped the Carlos Beltran WAR comp on him!
    http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/depth-edge-giants/#comment-637796

    Dan

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 3:23 PM

      I would say he needs to stick to covering football. He comes off like an internet troll who managed to land a gig at a local newspaper.

      Delete
  7. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 4:24 PM

    Is Derek Law really good enough to help the Giants bullpen this season or is he being a little over hyped? Does he profile as a future closer? Thanks.

    LG

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 4:33 PM

      I am impressed by what I see of Derek Law. He's got enough funkiness in his delivery that it will take MLB hitters some time to adjust to that alone. I wouldn't want the Giants season to depend on him being the closer or setup guy but if he broke camp as the 6'th or 7'th man in the bullpen, I'd would not see it as a negative at all. What's even better is that he will most likely start the season in Fresno and be the 1'st or second option for a bullpen callup. Future closer? That is a tough one to project, but I think it's certainly possible. More likely his ceiling is setup guy on a good team.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousFebruary 21, 2014 at 6:01 PM

    Do people give the Giants too much flak for drafting poorly when their 1st rounders don't work out (ie Brown and Panik don't look like they'll be stars)? For one, they're picking late in the 1st and regardless of where you're picking, 1st rounders still tend to be crap shoots. Not only that, they always seem to find gems later in the draft, for which they get little to no credit for.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 8:43 PM

      I would basically agree with that. The overall expected "success" rate for late first rounders is actually quite low.

      Delete
  9. RyanFebruary 21, 2014 at 7:49 PM

    Getting your homework tonight, Doc.

    Division winners and wild cards for the Senior Circuit? How many wins for Giants in 2014?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 21, 2014 at 8:46 PM

      Haven't really given it a lot of thought. Just off the top of my head I'll say the Eastern Division champ is the Nationals. Central is the Cards. Western is the Dodgers. Wild Cards are the Pirates and Giants. Giant win 92 games.

      Delete
  10. DocGrooFebruary 22, 2014 at 10:10 AM

    Dr B--
    IMO the MLB draft is long overdue for reform. What reforms would you recommend for the future?

    Off the top of my head:
    1) Allow teams to trade draft picks.
    2) Allow a lottery type system for the top picks (similar to basketball)
    3) Decide on an alternate system for picks that do not sign out of High School.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 22, 2014 at 10:50 AM

      I would advocate for limited trading of draft picks(no trading of draft picks beyond the current draft cycle). I don't like the lottery system in basketball(just me). Shorten the draft to 2 or 3 rounds. Let everybody else sign as free agents. Maintain some type of siging bonus pool with limitations in total spending. The success rate beyond the top 3 rounds is so low that it's kind of ridiculous to think extending the draft beyond those rounds makes any difference at all in competitive balance. I think you could actually make a pretty good case for the draft to be just 1 round plus the supplemental round picks. Eliminate the QO penalties but teams losing FA's could still accumulate supplemental round picks or get a larger signing bonus pool.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousFebruary 23, 2014 at 6:53 AM

      Include all international players in the draft to level out the playing field.

      Delete
    3. DrBGiantsfanFebruary 23, 2014 at 7:16 AM

      Or maybe just have one big pool of bonus money with a cap and let teams sign players from anywhere out of it. Have a 1 round draft for the very best players in reverse order of prior year's record to maintain competitive balance.

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)