While Virginia teammate Derek Fisher has gotten all the ink as a first round draft prospect, Brandon Downes may actually be the stronger prospect from this year's Cavaliers squad. Downes is a junior who plays CF in college. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 200 lbs. Downes served notice Friday night with 2 solo HR's off uber-pitching prospect, Jeff Hoffman of East Carolina to lead Virginia to a 3-2 win. Here are Downes' stat lines from the last two seasons:
2012: .321/.419/.453, 7 2B, 2 3B, HR, 3 SB, 15 BB, 27 K in 106 AB.
2013: .316/.393/.569, 20 2B, 7 3B, 10 HR, 6 SB, 27 BB, 60 K in 253 AB.
Downes led the team in HR's in 2013 with 37 of his 80 hits going for extra bases. He tends to strike out a lot which may limit his ceiling in the pros. Downes is a name to keep in mind in the later single digit rounds of the 2014 draft.
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Doc, maybe you can shed some light on this: What is a good hitting average in college ball? I seem to remember seeing guys frequently (Gary Brown, for instance) hitting above .400 in their draft years, but I don't think we see much of that now. Good job new bats!
ReplyDeleteSo, are stats essentially close to ML ball, with fewer HRs (younger, less developed players), and slightly higher averages from the sub-draft pitchers they'll face 1 or 2 times a week?
Thanks!
I heard the NCAA baseballs were different and it stifled home runs
DeleteJ
I'm really hesitant to put any number on it. I don't think there is an easy correction factor for college BA and the pros. I just look at generalities such as does he hit the ball with authority? Is he more of a power guy or a speed guy or some of both? What position does he play and can he stay there? In general, I look for BA's of .310 or above, but remember that Mac Williamson hit under .300 his junior year in college. So far, he's hit for high average in the pros. More and more, I'm looking at K and BB rates since the Giants appear to be in a pattern of relying heavily on those ratios to evaluate hitting prospects.
DeleteThe NCAA baseballs have higher seams than the pro balls. Higher seams give pitchers better grips and also restrict the flight of the ball. The NCAA did some testing and found out that lowering the seams did not make the ball get to the pitcher or infielders faster on line drives, but made the ball travel 20 or so feet farther on long flies. I think the new, smaller seamed balls don't take effect until next season, but I'm not sure.
DeleteYup, 2015.
DeleteI like this guy way more than Fisher.
ReplyDeleteEspecially since he'll probably be available later in the draft. I'd watch for him somewhere in the round 4-10 range.
DeleteAny idea where Fullerton P Justin Garza is projected to go?
ReplyDeleteGarza is listed as a sophomore so will likely be in the 2015 draft class. Cal State Fullerton tends to recruit pitchability guys and Garza is listed at 5'11", 170 lbs, so unless I see some really eye-popping stats or read a scouting report of hims throwing in the mid-90's, I'm going to classify him as a college pitcher and not much of a pro prospect.
DeleteFound a couple of references to a FB that gets up to 94 MPH. A video that's posted on BLF makes him look a bit bigger than his listed size. Could be an interesting arm in the 2015 draft.
DeleteWhoops! I thought he was a junior this season. I had seen he was hitting 94 the other night, so I was very intrigued. I believe Thomas Eshelman only throws 88-89, with some of the most impeccable control in the country. I hope he can get a little extra on his fastball by next summer!
DeleteCS Fullerton has a junior RHP named Grahamm Wiest who is their Sunday Starter. Off to a great start to his season so far. Big dude at 6'3", 200 lbs.
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