Monday, November 21, 2011

Down on the Farm: Right Handed Starting Pitcher Depth Chart

The final installment in the Depth Chart series comes down to RH starting pitching. Just one comment before we get started on the rundown: While the Giants have been excellent at developing their elite pitching prospects, they really haven't been all that with the second and third tier guys. They need to come up with a solid #4 or #5 starter from these ranks every once in awhile.

AA

Justin Fitzgerald 6'5", 225 lbs. BD: 3/3/1986. 9-9, 3.51, 146.1 IP, 55 BB, 111 K's. Local fellow from Cloverdale and Santa Rosa. College closer at UC Davis. Big, strong RHP who can pound the zone. Seemed to get stronger as the year went on finishing with 53 K's and 19 BB's in 61 IP over his last 10 games. Has put up very consistent numbers at each stop in his pro career. Should get a rotation spot in Fresno in 2012 and be close to the front of the line if an emergency callup is needed.

Daryl Maday 6'2", 225 lbs. BD: 8/12/1985. AA 4-10, 4.47, 116.2 IP, 39 BB, 92 K's. AAA 0-2, 7.07, 14 IP, 7 BB, 7 K's. AFL 1-2, 4.91, 11 IP, 5 BB, 11 K's. Drafted way back in 2006, Maday has kicked around the organization more as an organizational player than prospect. Rule 5 eligible this year, unprotected, low probability of being picked.

HIGH A

Chris Heston 6'4", 185 lbs. BD: 4/10/1988. 12-4, 3.16, 151.0 IP, 40 BB, 131 K's, GO/AO= 2.20. Heston had a stellar season for San Jose improving on his numbers from Augusta in 2010. Particularly strong down the stretch with a 1.78 ERA over his last 10 starts. I didn't get to see him pitch, but the reports I've seen indicate that his success is more due to pitchability than stuff.

Craig Westcott 6'4", 225 lbs. BD: 3/1/1986. 13-4, 3.42, 155.1 IP, 33 BB, 87 K's, GO/AO= 1.49. Repeater at High A after failing a promo to AA in 2010. Pitch-to-contact guy. I'd be concerned about the low K rate.

Andy Reichard 6'4", 235 lbs. BD: 12/4/1984. 9-4, 3.38, 112 IP, 25 BB, 61 K's, GO/AO= 0.98. Reichard has always been a personal favorite of mine for some reason. He's getting awfully old and the low K combined with a flyball tendency does not bode well for the future.

LOW A

Shawn Sanford 6'0", 200 lbs. BD: 8/28/1988. 10-10, 2.55, 169.2 IP, 30 BB, 107 K's, GO/AO= 1.63. Sanford won the SAL Most Outstanding Pitcher award, but those peripheral numbers scream older prospect dominating with pitchability. I just don't see them translating to higher levels.

Taylor Rogers 6'4", 200 lbs. BD: 6/5/1987. 12-10, 2.91, 154.2 IP, 38 BB, 86 K's, GO/AO= 2.11. Even older than Sanford. The groundball tendency is mildly interesting.

Justin Schumer 6'0", 180 lbs. BD: 8/2/1988. Low A 5-5, 5.24, 80.2 IP, 30 BB, 49 K. AA 1-0, 1.29, 14 IP, 10 BB, 4 K's. Nothing in this line suggests any potential. I think it's pretty clear he got lucky in his AA stint.

SHORT SEASON

Cameron Lamb 6'3", 195 lbs. BD: 5/29/1989. 4-6, 5.09, 74.1 IP, 15 BB, 58 K's, GO/AO= 2.16. Signed as a 17 yo FA out of Australia in 2007. Missed the 2008 season presumably to TJ surgery. Pitched very little in 2010, so even though he's getting older, he is still quite inexperienced. Needs a breakout of sorts. Like the control and GB tendencies.

Lorenzo Mendoza 5'10", 190 lbs. BD: 8/6/1991. 5-5, 4.19, 73 IP, 16 BB, 68 K's. Like the K/BB and he has age vs level going for him.

Reinier Roibal 6'2", 215 lbs. BD: 1/19/1989. 1-4, 3.74, 67.1 IP, 17 BB, 58 K's. Signed as a FA out of Cuba before the 2010 season. Only pitched 8.2 innings his first season, so this was really his first pro experience. Word is his stuff is not what it was touted to be coming out of Cuba. We'll see how he progresses. OK K/BB's.

Brandon Allen 6'6", 190 lbs. BD: 8/15.1991. 2-8, 6.04, 56.2 IP, 22 BB, 25 K's, GO/AO= 0.91. The Giants have started a pattern of drafting and signing at least 1 HS pitcher down the the draft. Allen was it for 2010 taken in round 18. This was his first extended pro experience. He struggled mightily but gets credit for hanging in there and improving as the season progressed. He put up an ERA of 4.86 over his last 10 appearances. The low walk rate is encouraging and he has age vs level going for him. Needs to get either a swing-and-miss pitch or a good hard sinker going forward. Goal was probably to pitch to contact and keep his walks down in his first extended pro experience.

Kendry Flores 6'2", 175 lbs. BD: 11/24/1991. 4-3, 5.06, 48.0 IP, 14 BB, 47 K's. Flores is still young, is reputed to have great stuff and has consistently put up better peripheral stats than his ERA would suggest. A kid to watch going forward.

ROOKIE AZL

Joan Gregorio 6'7", 180 lbs. BD: 1/12/1992. 3-0, 2.32, 50.1 IP, 16 BB, 43 K's. DSL graduate. Love his size. Has had good control for a guy that tall. Improved his K rate from the DSL.

Clayton Blackburn 6'3", 220 lbs. BD: 1/6/1993. 3-1, 1.08, 33.1 IP, 3 BB, 30 K's, GO/AO= 2.58. This year's lower round HS pitching draft pick in round 16. Signed early and impressed just about everybody with an excellent pro debut.

Kyle Crick 6'4", 220 lbs. BD: 11/30/1992. 1-0, 6.43, 7 IP, 8 BB, 8 K's. Supplemental round pick. Reportedly has gotten his FB up to 97 MPH. Pro debut was a mixed bag in a very small sample size. The Giants have a lot riding on him after the Wheeler trade.

This category is pretty much of a wasteland all the way down to short season ball where you start to see some interesting arms but no sure things. I'll try to rank 'em here:

1. Kyle Crick
2. Clayton Blackburn
3. Kendry Flores
4. Joan Gregorio
5. Lorenzo Mendoza
6. Cameron Lamb
7. Reinier Roibal
8. Brandon Allen
9. Justin Fitzgerald
10. Chris Heston
11. Everybody else.

I'm still hopeful that Seth Rosin will turn into at least a 2'nd tier SP prospect with Austin Fleet also possibly leaning more toward starting. The Giants need to concentrate their next draft on pitching as well as their international scouting and signings.

27 comments:

  1. pitching is very thin...sabean and evans must address this...and soon

    it really was why i was against the wheeler trade

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  2. It's not really a pressing concern yet. Plenty of time to rebuild the farm pitching, but yeah, it does need to be addressed, like in the next draft and international signing season. If and when trade discussions come up it might be a good idea to try to get some pitching back instead of sending it out.

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  3. I feel like minor league pitching depth is slightly overrated. Look at the guys we have pitching for the giants. Linc, Cain, and Bum never were considered depth. They were at the top while they were in the minors. In baseball, it is rare to see a non 1st rounder become a good starting pitcher.

    Obviously with the price of pitching these days, bullpen depth is great. But last year was proof that the giants cannot get anywhere without hitting. I know the giants were a great team and injuries really derailed the season, but that happens. We had no depth, and almost every player who could have digressed, did.

    With Tidrow, I feel like we should be able to come up with solid bullpen arms year after year. Let him take his hard throwing projects. That may be over evaluating Tidrow's influence, but I have faith.

    Dr. B, I completely agree that we need to look at the international signing season. Every team gets their 1st and 2nd rounders in the draft to pick studs up, but the international market is fair game. If we can develop one big bonus baby, that would be huge.

    At this point I don't think the Giants are at any point to discriminate in the draft. Take the best player, or at least the best value. The Giants are looking to extend both shotgun and timmy, so why not try for an impact bat? Been a while since we have seen power at the corners. Well, I guess Beltran was a taste, and I want more!

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  4. I don't think starting pitching will be an issue in 2012 unless we have some major injuries. It all depends on what we will get from Zito. In 2010, he started off 5-0 and then proceeded to go 4-14. But, he still had 19 Quality Starts and most of those losses he only gave up 1 or 2 runs. Last year we all can admit he was horrible. I am praying he will return to how he pitched in 2010 and we give him some more run support. I think Surkamp can make a few starts here and there and depending who we have for long relief we may be okay. I thought Mota was great when we needed him to pitch 3-4 innings. I believe he deserves a roster spot. As far as 2013 is concerned, depending on the contract situations of Cain and Lincecum is where we may have issues. I believe Cain will sign long term. Lincecum doesn't seem as much as a lock as Cain with his supposed "one year contracts" that he is asking for. If he is not extended by the trading deadline of 2013, we need to get as much as we can for him. The difference between compensation picks and trade value is night and day for Lincecum. I am still optimistic we can resign him but a backup plan is nice to have.

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  5. DrB - would you slot Rosin above or below Flores/Gregorio?

    So they lose Sosa, Stoffel, Tanner, Verdugo and Wheeler since the start of the 2011 season. Maybe Joaquin as well. I trust the Giants to evaluate their pitching, but that seems like a lot of talent or at least depth to let go.

    Sabean said something during the Wheeler conference - Wheeler projecting as a reliever. It stood out to me. I don't think the Giants would have traded him if they thought he was another Cain/MadBum. I don't think Sabean was doing it to be dismissive of Wheeler, he also talked about their job to develop more pitching.

    Roger - we can hope for Zito to roll out 19 quality starts but I hope we have a couple contingency plans on that one.

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  6. Shankbone,

    The fact that we could not get compensation for Beltran is enough for me to believe the Giants projected him as a end of rotation starter or reliever. I would hope that the Giants would not just give a top prospect for a rental. In addition to Zito I think we should find a few veteran starters to invite to Spring Training. Kazmir or Pineiro could use a good year to kickstart their careers. Another go around with Brad Penny? The only thing we can hope for is that Zito keeps his starts close. If he has another horrible year
    I think he will be released. Personally, I don't think he will be on the roster for 2013.

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  7. If Osich proves to be healthy, the overall pitching is not a thin as it looks from this list.

    I agree with the best player available principle, but if they get to the 20'th pick and there is a position player and pitcher who grade out approximately the same, they need to have pitching be the tie-breaker.

    I love the strategy of taking at least one HS pitcher in the teen rounds. It's still too early to give up on Matt Graham and Brandon Allen, but if Clayton Blackburn is for real, wow, 1 out of 3 is not bad at all for players drafted in that range!

    I don't know if the Giants were down of Wheeler or if they are trying to convince themselves they did the right thing in letting him go. I do know that if he was still in the organization he would easily be #1 on this list and would be in the running for #1 overall when my top 50 comes out, but that's just my opinion. I've seen Matt Cain, Timmy and Merkin Valdez pitch in the Cal league(sorry, I missed MadBum) and Wheeler has the best stuff of all of them, IMO. His performance the day I saw him was that impressive!

    Where would I slot Rosin in this list? I am irrationally exuberant about Rosin, so maybe #4 after Flores, but possibly as high as #2 after Crick.

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  8. I'm pretty sure the Giants will bring in a veteran or two on minor league deals. Somebody suggested Andrew Miller as a reclamation project and I really like that idea a lot.

    Zito either needs to come to camp with a new pitch or with his velocity up into the high 80's. If he shows up throwing the same slop at 83-85 MPH, he's as done as I hope the turkey is on Thanksgiving!

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  9. Dr. B, I know this should be in the 3B roundup, but do you think Ricky Oropesa could still handle 3B? Have you heard from him or his family about the Giants asking him to prepare to play some 3B this upcoming season?

    I feel he should be given that chance if he is still capable and he does have a rocket of an arm for a 1B.

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  10. I have not heard anything specific about what position Ricky will play. I got the idea that in his initial workouts they looked at him at several different positions. He was drafted as a first baseman and I assume that's the position the Giants will have him play. The Giants have been quite open minded about position assignments though and it would not surprise me if they tried Ricky at 3B or even LF at some point.

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  11. That was me with the Andrew Miller idea. Got some crap for it on MCC too. I've always liked Piniero, that's another good idea. He's only 33, seems like he's been pitching forever. Apparently wants a 2 year deal, but Chris Capuano is a FA. He seems to have gotten healthy last year. Kazmir and Brandon Webb are way out there projects with those injuries.

    The video I've seen of Wheeler, well... I just don't watch it anymore. Seemed pretty sweet to me, its just one of those things that has to play out. I'll trust in their scouting and development. Maybe that lingering doubt in the Giants leads them to signing Beltran.

    Rosin is from St. Paul, couple generations in CA now but Shankbone's peoples are from there. So I say you gotta love the Minny Farm boy.

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  12. Well, if you gotten crap on MCC, you are in good company. I lurk there, but haven't posted in years. It's actually gotten a lot more strident and intolerant over there. You'd think that winning a World Series might mellow everybody out a bit, but it's definitely gotten worse.

    Pretty much every post is either a diatribe about how much they hate the latest signing or trade, or if there's nothing to complain about on this particular day, they can always post something about how much they hate a signing or trade they think Sabes MIGHT make! Unbelieveable!

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  13. Doc, I know numbers can only say so much about a player. But Timmy's Cal League numbers blow Wheeler's out of the water.

    I'm pretty simplistic, but I look at one stat when evaluating a minor league pitcher. K's per 9. If a pitcher has at least a 9.0 K/9, you're in business.

    Wheeler in the the Cal League was at 10.0 K/9. Timmy was at 15.6. (I know a lot of other things come into play. Tim was a couple of years older, etc.) Still, Tim's ERA was 1.95. Wheeler 3.99. Tim's WHIP 0.904, Wheeler's 1.375.

    Beyond being a pitcher who will make it to the Big Leagues, I can't say how good Wheeler will be. It's tough to lose him when our prospect pitching is so thin. But I don't think we should overstate his potential.

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  14. Aloha Drb, I like what the Giants Scouting and Player Development Dept have done lately. The major league roster has good homegrown talent.. Starting Pitching depth - Kyle Crick & Zack Wheeler were good early round selections because they are talented but raw pitchers..

    I noticed that the Red Sox took a favorite college pitcher of mine by the name of Noe Rameriz (Cal St Fullerton) in the 4th round. He has a low 90's heater and an outstanding changeup, not as talented as Crick and Wheeler but much more polished.. According to the BA Red Sox draft report card, Rameriz is closest to the majors from their draft list.. My suggestion to address the minor league pitching depth is for the Giants to take a closer look at drafting polished college pitchers such as Rameriz with early picks. He could move up quickly and become a #4 or #5 starter eventually..

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  15. doc,

    tweeted rosin your analysis of him....he loved it

    maybe he will stop bye and say hi

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  16. regarding mcc

    i read grants stuff...but i ceased commenting or reading comments long ago

    basically, those who post are grant clones, trying to one up each other with one liners

    re zito...unless he hired a strength and conditioning coach that can guarantee added mph on his fast ball (and i dont think such a dude exists) aint gonna happen

    zito never did weights...he does yoga

    i dont think a miracle is gonna happen over the winter

    and we can all say he is done...but the club has made it pretty clear that they will not just outright him...and they really dont have room to hide him on the roster...and they cant contractually send him to fresno for the year

    so they are pretty much effed...and the zito contract will go down as the worst in baseball history

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  17. Interesting stuff Bacci. Twitter can be a constructive medium, glad Rosin liked it. The opposite end is you have young guys saying things they shouldn't. Johnny Monell said some stuff but quickly retracted when more mature players (Ryan Verdugo) got on him quick.

    I really like Grant's writing, but I think the pressure of cranking out something all the time for a living gets to him. He puts up puff pieces to rabble rouse these days they are generally cutesy and formulaic with no real substance. Most my time is spent in fanposts reading the 5-6 prospect hound posters who have good insight. There are a lot of people on MCC who don't know a lot about baseball but follow the crowd closely. It becomes a saber dogma, Sabean is an idiot at all costs dogma and a lot of groupthink and non-baseball stuff. Still, its a popular place for Giants fans, and Grants writing does crack me up sometimes. But overall there is a lack of respect and way too much snarky sniping. Who wants to argue about statistics with Keith Law wannabes?

    I'm maintaining my Zito stance: PR exercise to call him the 5th starter, they will bring in 2-3 other guys in addition to Surkamp. He'll get a shot, then its the bullpen, then its learning to throw the knuckleball. Maybe we'll get lucky, but chances are slim for him to return to average with a 83-84 MPH fastball. Sunk cost, no trade value, lots of drama. I think the Zito contract is 101 in avoiding Scott Boras and bidding against yourself, the Mike Hampton contract might have been worse, but its top 5 for a pitcher for sure.

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  18. Doc, I'm curious how you'd rank a combined list of LH and RH starters in our system. And, in your ranking, are you most interested in future ceiling - or in a balance of potential with likelihood to reach that potential?

    Mixing floor/ceiling, I think I might go:
    1. Crick
    2. Osich (if healthy)
    3. Kickham
    4. Blackburn
    5. Surkamp
    6. Mejia
    7. Flores
    8. Fitzgerald
    9. Gregorio
    10. Allen

    What do others think?

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  19. Bacci - you could argue the trifecta of Dodger contracts are worse, because Zito has been a league average pitcher generally worth between 8-12MM a year until last year. Schmidt (bless him), Dreifort and Kevin Brown were all pretty terrible signings, and Brown is definitely worse than Zeets. Top 5 overall is still within reach for the 126MM man for sure.

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  20. Wow! Great comments everybody!

    Bacci,

    Appreciate the shout out to Rosin. I've followed him since before he was drafted. The dude at Baseball Beginnings(now Baseball Prospect Report) really turned me on to him and I was thrilled when the Giants got a value like that in the 4'th round of the 2010 draft. I'm still very hopeful about his future with the Giants.

    BTW, Baseball Prospect Report hasn't had anything new for a long time. Hope he's out scouting and getting video to post as we get closer to the next draft. Stats are good, but there's not substitute for watching video with commentary from someone who knows how to scout a player.

    My comparison of Wheeler to Cain, Timmy and Merkin Valdez was confined only to what I saw on the days I saw them pitch. Cainer showed his bulldog personality early on but at the game I attended he gave up a lot of pop fouls and only lasted 4+ innings which turned out to be a problem for him in the majors too. Timmy was much more polished than Wheels. Bacci was at the same game I saw Timmy pitch and I think he can back me up that Timmy wasn't really overpowering that game. Topped out at 94 MPH and didn't have great FB command. Adjusted to pitching off the breaking ball mid game. The one game I saw Wheeler pitch he had more velocity and FB movement than either Cainer or Timmy on the days I saw them. Of course that doesn't mean Wheeler is a better pitcher or is going to have a better career, but the tools are there.

    I don't know about the worst in history, but Zito was a bad contract for sure. It's all spilt milk for me. No use crying about it.

    Lyle, that's not a bad list. I'll have to sort it out and weigh one category against another before I post my top 50 Giants Prospects. I do think the LH starters are a bit stronger than the RH at this point.

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  21. Dr. B

    What is your ideal rest of the offseason for the giants?

    Free agents are expensive. I hate when people complain about not making enough moves, but think Sabean should be fired for the Zito, Rowand, and Huff signings. We have to pay to get players, no way around it. Not everyone pans out. When Barmes is getting 2 for $12 million, it is safe to assume Beltran will be costly.

    Barring some Cuddyer realization that he has always wanted to play for the giants, any good bat is going to cost a lot. The question I have been trying to ask myself, is it worth it? I sure think Fielder would look good in black and orange... and I really doubt Cain would mind (whole celebration thing).

    Last thing. Thoughts on the Nathan signing? I'm sort of shocked. I figured after Papelbon set the ridiculous market, he would have gotten at least $20 million guaranteed. Almost want him back at that price.

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  22. Hey, maybe it's time to to another Q/A, huh?

    You know, Sabes is in a can't win for losing mode right now. If he fails to sign he proverbial "big bat", he'll be excoriated around the blogosphere for being cheap and overvaluing relief pitching. If he does go out and sign Beltran for, say, 3 yrs/$45 M, those same bloggers will be screaming that he panicked and overpaid.

    Personally, I'm OK either way. If the Giants brass thinks they have the resources to sign Beltran, as long as they keep it to no more than 3 years, I'm good. On the other hand, I think there is a high enough probability that if they stuck Belt in LF for a year and just let him play through any slumps, he's almost a lock to hit 25 HR's and costs absolutely nothing. Likewise, short of signing Reyes or Rollins, the Giants are not going to find a better SS option than Crawford who also costs nothing.

    If I had to pick one big FA to sign who I think is most likely to bring the best return on investment it's Jose Reyes. Much as I'm a fan of Crawford, he'll never be the force that Jose Reyes is. It's not like the Giants have a parade of can't miss SS prospects out there either. Maybe Panik, but he might be better suited to 2B anyway. I like Reyes enough I would entertain the thought of trading Timmy or Cainer to make the salary work. Ain't gonna happen though, so it's all just talk.

    Nathan? He didn't bounce back from TJ very well last year. A somewhat risky signing by the Rangers, but with a big upside.

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  23. A Q/A would be great.

    The reason I'm torn this offseason is completely because of Belt. I want him to start and play the whole season. But then that big bat like Beltran, Reyes, Fielder, would have a huge impact.

    I used to think I would trade them for the right price, but not anymore. They should be the 1-2 for years to come. Letting our homegrown superstars is a mistake. Loyalty must be shown to certain players if we want hometown discounts and a good clubhouse in the future. It is more fun to follow these giants than bonds giants just because the teams' attitudes.

    Lastly, it may be a small sample-size fluke, but Nathan put up good numbers to end the year.

    In his last 31 games: 3.38 ERA .193 BAA 28 K 5 BB

    He also converted his last 11 save chances. To me, that is enough to take a risk that the maybe 2nd or 3rd best closer of the past decade can get anywhere close to his old season averages. I guess we'll see...

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  24. Anon - where's your handle? Come on, man! Takes 20 seconds.

    There's still hope for some more ex Gint farmhands: Aardsma and Accardo are free agents, we'll see about Jerome Williams, I doubt the Angels release him though.

    DrB - I used to think Reyes was the perfect fit and this was the time to grab him. As this market has developed, its obvious he's getting 6 years and close to 100MM, and very possible he's going into Zito/Wells territory. The thing is, speed guys with not much pop aren't going to age well. While its fun to dream of triples alley, the quads and hammies won't allow for it over time. The best place to spend huge money is on the big time bat. In a weird inverse, speed does slump over time, and power holds out the longest. In addition to the expense, Reyes strikes me as an all flash no heart player.

    I follow the Mets as well as the Giants, I think the biggest indication of his value is what the Mets offer him/how they react. Yes, there are Wilpon money troubles, but talent and ticket sales will trump that. Maybe its some holdover from the awful due diligence on Edgardo Alfonso for me. Reyes is a Carl Crawford type - ultimately a great supplement but not a cornerstone to build your franchise around. Throw in his contract year push - why aren't Gints fans freaking out about his 353 BABIP, his 384 obp or his 7% K rate? All way out of his norms - as well as the nine SBs after his hammy injury and subsequent DL stints and I think its a big red flag.

    You play fantasy baseball - I do too. This is an argument that deserves to be made fun of, so I'll take my lumps, but I had Reyes for 3 straight years, 2008-10. Paid a premium for him, and was crushed by the injuries. Laid off this year, gnashed my teeth a lot, and then the hammy injury came on, familiar territory. That upside looks awesome but the downside needs to be looked at again and again. For the amount of money involved, I would prefer to spend the extra dough on Fielder for the big bat, it'll suck at the end no doubt. That guy would crush (no I don't want him but he has 3-4 awesome years coming). Beltran just looks like the play next to the risks to the franchise for the long years guys.

    I maintain SS is an offensive wasteland. There were only 4 SS's with over 800 OPS - Tulo, Reyes, Peralta and JJ Hardy. CO looks pretty good locking up Tulo, as long as he stays healthy. I don't think Reyes maintains a 800 OPS, Hanley Ramirez will eventually be moved off position as will Sterling Castro, the only other up and coming bats are the Good Cabrera on Cleveland and Escobar on Toronto. The only "stud" guys coming up are on Balto and Texas - Machado and Profar. For 30 teams that is a true wasteland. While the position scarcity and the leadoff calls, all the eggs in the basket and a career 341 OBP (nine points below Jamey Carroll!) just tells me that for the money, you have to walk away. So I applaud Sabey Sabes on this decision.

    Here's my Q&A: why does Sabean not want to be the stalking horse in FA negotiations? One too many bad experiences chasing FAs who said no or agents using him to bid up their clients?

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  25. One year, the Giants made bids on a whole bunch of guys: Pierre, Carlos Lee, I think a couple of others. I think in every case, the agents just used the Giants offer to get a better deal from the team they really wanted to sign with and it left a bad taste in Sabe's mouth. He's kind of held the grudge ever since. I don't remember if that was the year the Giants ended up with Zito or Rowand. Hmm....no wonder it left a bad taste in his mouth and no wonder he still remembers it! Funny thing is, all those players who dissed him? They didn't really turn out any better than Zito and Rowand! Maybe the lesson is just stay away from FA's!

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  26. Good point. He bid on Carlos Lee and Soriano the Zito year 2006. They used him to bid it up. The next year he tried to get Gary Matthews first, who signed with the Angels for 5/50. Juan Pierre got 5/41 from the Doyers. Sabean bid on Rowand and the rest is Warrior Spirit history. The FA market is just fraught with danger, eel infested waters.

    He came out and actually stated the stalking horse thing when Bay/Holliday were on the market I think. For being a pretty blunt tough persona, Sabey Sabes can be pretty sensitive sometimes. I think he should at least nominally be in the bidding for Rollins and Reyes in the off chance something weird happens. Not his style though. If Beltran falls through I think he'll get in on Rollins.

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  27. Oh yeah, Brian Sabean has very thin skin. He also has a long memory when things go badly. After the AJ debacle, he went into his shell and made no major trades for a long time. I think the Sanchez/Melky trade is the biggest and that just now happened. If you look back at his entire tenure as a GM, he's tended to keep going back to strategies that work until they don't work, then he won't touch them with a 10 foot pole. He hasn't made a major FA signing since the Zito/Rowand disasters. That may be a bigger factor in him not pursuing the Reyes/Fielders of the world than payroll limitations. He struck gold with Timmy in the draft and all of a sudden his disdain for that institution turned to enthusiasm. Sabes is actually very predicable if you follow him closely for long enough and look for patterns.

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