Friday, November 4, 2011

Down on the Farm: First Base Depth Chart

First base for the Giants has been a revolving door of reclamation projects since JT Snow retired. Aubrey Huff is the current incumbent first baseman. Despite a lot of anger at his wretched performance in 2011 when he was quite obviously out of shape and out of sorts, he will almost certainly be the starting first baseman on opening say 2012. How long he stays there probably depends on his apparent conditioning and performance. He will likely not be with the Giants in 2013. Brandon Belt is the heir apparent to JT's old position. The questions about Belt are whether he will be the starting LF in 2012 or start the year in AAA, and whether he will take over at first base sometime in mid-season or in 2013. Of course, Brett Pill might sneak in and have something to say about all that. Belt has too many MLB AB's to qualify as a prospect, but he is not an established MLB player either. Let's take a look at who might challenge Brandon down the road:

AAA

Brett Pill 6'4", 210 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 9/9/1984. AAA .312/.341/.530, 36 2B, 25 HR. MLB .300/.321/.560, 3 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR in 50 AB. Pill has taken his time climbing through the organization. He's always been a doubles machine, but found his HR stroke in 2011. Impressed almost everybody including Brian Sabean with a major league approach at the plate in a September look-see. He's an excellent fielder to boot and even played some 2B for Fresno in a pinch. Did he put himself into position to challenge for the starting first base gig in SF should Aubrey Huff falter again?

HIGH A

Luke Anders 6'6", 225 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 10/2/1986. .246/.326/.423, 24 2B, 13 HR. Unimpressive performance for the big guy in San Jose. Probably an organizational player. Will probably get a chance to show something in Richmond just because there isn't anyone else to play the position there!

LOW A

Josh Mazzola 6'2", 195 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 4/10/1986. .259/.342/.427, 22 2B, 13 HR. Mazzola was signed as an undrafted FA in 2008. He missed almost all of 2010 with an injury. Probably an organizational player at this point.

Ryan Scoma 6'2", 180 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 9/12/1987. .254/.310/.358, 26 2B, 6 HR. Scoma showed some doubles power but will have to hit more to be a 1B prospect, although Pill had similar struggles in the low minors.

SHORT SEASON

Brice Cutspec 6'4", 250 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 12/7/1987. .240/.286/.479, 6 HR in 96 AB's. Cutspec was signed as an undrafted FA in 2010. Put up good numbers in the AZL. Showed a bit of power at the higher level, but not much else. Last game was 7/29. Injury? Lost his job to Ben Thomas?

Ben Thomas 6'1", 240 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 6/3/1989. AZL .346/.380/.569, 9 2B, 6 HR in 130 AB. S-K .302/.340/.417 in 96 AB. Wide body late round college draftee. Batting line for Xavier was .350/.435/.632 with 15 HR's. Seems to be be a hitter and John Barr seems to know hitters when he sees them. Will have to prove it at higher levels.

ROOKIE AZL

Brian Nicholson 6'2", 225 lbs. B-L, T-L. BD: 10/31/1989. .274/.336/.402 in 117 AB. Another late round college draftee out of NAIA Concordia in SoCal. Modest start to pro career and was old for the league.

DSL

Alexis Almeida 6'3", 215 lbs. B-R, T-R. BD: 2/16/1993. .248/.267/.288. Don't know anything about this kid but he's got the size to play 1B and he's not too old for the level. That's enough for me to include him.

2011 DRAFTEES

Ricky Oropesa 6'3", 225 lbs. B-L, T-R. BD: 12/15/1989. USC .322/.402/.481, 10 HR. 2010 .353/.454/.711 with 22 HR. As most of you know, I work with Ricky's mom and have followed his career since he was a junior in high school. Imagine my excitement when I realized Ricky had been drafted by the Giants, the team I have been obsessed with since I was about 10 years old! I plead no contest to any charges of bias here! Rickey is a classic power hitting first baseman, the kind the Giants have tended to not draft during Brian Sabean's tenure as GM. He tore up the Pac 10, a conference that generally has pretty good pitching, in 2010. His 2011 was not as impressive which is probably why his draft stock slipped. He may have been pressing a bit during his draft year. There was also the BBCOR bats that are not as lively as the old metal ones. A couple of other factors that are not as well known: 1. There were not BBCOR bats available in Ricky's preferred size for the first month or so of the 2011 season so he had to adjust and then readjust when his bat finally came. 2. The new coach at USC wanted him to use a more level, line drive swing. I'm pretty sure the Giants will have no problem letting him use his natural power stroke in the pros. I think Ricky is athletic enough to play 3B or even LF, but he will probably stay at 1B. He'll go as far as his bat takes him at that position. I have faith in the bat!

From what I can gather, the Giants were looking at Ricky in round 2 of the draft. That still would have been a good value as BA had him ranked in the supplemental first round. When Andrew Susac fell to the Giants in round 2, they made the adjustment and grabbed him only to find Ricky still on the board at their pick in round 3! I'm sure falling that far was disappointing to Ricky and his family, but what a great drafting job by the Giants! I understand the clincher to the Giants interest came when John Barr himself was in the stands at the game where Ricky took Gerritt Cole deep late in the college season. Based on his college pedigree and draft position, I would expect to see Ricky playing for the San Jose Giants next spring.

WILD CARD

Angel Villalona Angel V was a raw teenage prospect when we last saw him play for the San Jose Giants in 2009. Since then, he's been on a painful journey, an experience that likely either ruined his baseball career forever or forced him to grow up in a big hurry. Accused of murdering a man in his home country of Dominican Republic, and then left to twist in the wind by the prosecutor after the family of the deceased withdrew their claims after a reported 5 figure payoff. Whether Angel is truly guilty or not, the whole episode exposed what must be a very corrupt and ineffectual law enforcement and judicial system in that country. Angel has been reported to be in much better shape than when he last played. He recently came to terms with the Giants in a dispute over his bonus money. It will be interesting to see where he surfaces in 2012. My guess? AZL.

The Giants seldom draft first basemen in the higher rounds preferring up-the-middle players. I understand the concept that it's easier to fill corner positions from outside the organization, but the Giants haven't always been able to do that. Historically, first base has brought the highest return on first round draft picks of any position. The Giants philosophy may be changing a bit under John Barr with the recent drafting of Brandon Belt, who was a major sleeper, and now Ricky Oropesa, who is more of a classic power hitting first baseman with great pedigree. Here's my ranking of the organizational first base prospects:

1. Ricky Oropesa(by a large margin, BTW)
2. Brett Pill
3. Luke Anders
4. Ben Thomas
5. Ryan Scoma
6. Josh Mazzola
7. Brice Cutspec
8. Brian Nicholson
9. Alexis Almeida
?? Angel Villalona(could be ranked as high as #2 or as low as #10. I'm gonna say maybe #3 as there is a pretty big drop off between Pill and Anders.)

Brandon Belt would top the list if he still had prospect eligibility. It's hard to tell who might be the Giants first baseman of the future. The cupboard is not as bare as this list makes it look. There's Belt, of course. Then either Buster Posey or Pablo Sandoval could slide over there at any time. Adam Duvall could move over from third base and Tommy Joseph could still end up there. Alex Burg is a deep sleeper.

21 comments:

  1. Great, as usual, DrB!

    Per your point near the end on Belt and Oropesa, I would include Joseph. Even though he is not 1B now, he fits that power profile to a T, and most draft experts did not think he would stay at C, they viewed him as a future 1B. Kudos to the Giants for giving him a chance to improve there AND for getting him to the point where it actually looks viable for him to stay there.

    Yeah, I think Villalona is third on the list, for now, based solely on potential. He could be better than Pill, kudos to Pill for putting himself there. And yeah Ricky is first by a wide margin.

    Now I would like to hear your views on a couple of possibilies. First, if Joseph does end up at first, where would you put him on this list? Obviously, Belt and Oropesa are the two up top. Second, if Villalona were to come back where he left off, where do you put him on this list? OK, third, what do you see happening in 2012 if V is hitting like he was when he left? Thanks.

    My thoughts are, second to Belt, but V coming back would vault him to top of list, and would push Belt to LF because there is no where else he can play, and if he hits, I see him being pushed fast to AA.

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  2. Thanks for the great rundown Drb! I like the Giants depth at 1st base. Huff - he's had a good ML Career and I have a feeling he'll bounce back because he'll play for his next contract. Belt - pleased to read in the latest BA that scouts still feel he has a special bat. The Giants need to have a plan for him in 2012 to avoid yoyoing him back and forth on the Fresno train.. Pill - I think he has a chance to crack the ML roster as a backup 1st baseman. Why didn't they call him up earlier in the 2011 season? Oropesa - I like how the org seems to be looking for power hitters in the draft. I liked him when USC played here in Hawaii 2 years ago, very good height 6-5 and he showed off his power hitting a couple of hrs.

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  3. I want to correct my typo on Ricky's height 6-3.. I just saw a video of Ricky's homerun againt Gerritt Cole, wow very impressive night when you collect 3 hits against the #1 pick in the entire draft.

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  4. I really don't think Belt is in play for 1B. We need his bat in the rotation so I think he will play LF. With Pill's bat at the end of the year I think they will start Huff, but if he struggles, Pill could take over. Oropesa sounds interesting but I doubt we will see him at all in 2012. Villalona could also be interesting but he had problems with weight. Hopefully he comes back strong and in shape. This time last year almost everybody wrote him off so anything good is a bonus. Maybe he will turn into a good trade chip.

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  5. belt is headed to lf, that is where he is playing in in winter ball...funny, he isnt tweeting from mexico

    monell is tweeting from pr and having a great time...still think he ends up in fresno and goes to 4 in depth chart (depending who is posey's backup)



    i predict that pill makes the club if huff doesnt have a great spring and sabean finds a super utility

    they may start ricky out with augusta...but he should move up pretty fast

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  6. Thanks for the comments, as always everybody! Any conjecture re. Angel V is pure speculation at this point. First things first. The Giants need to get him back to the states and figure out what they have and we'll have to see him in action and go from there. As Roger said, anything good from him at this point is 100% bonus.

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  7. My feeling about a guy like Angel V is that I hope he has the mindset that this could be it for him... that he better show up focused and physically ready to play. I like the above comment, maybe he turns himself into a trade chip?

    I also agree about Huff. I haven't heard anything to make me believe he is done in MLB after this year... He'll be playing for a contract and also for some pride, as his season was very dissapointing.

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  8. The reports when he sued to get reinstated was that he had lost weight and looked better. Apparently he worked out while under arrest so that is a good sign that he is serious about coming back and making the majors. Some said that he had a lot of baby fat that would go as he matured, and that turned out. So his mindset appears to be in as good a place as one could expect.

    If so, he should be more than a trade chip, 40 HR power is hard to find. Or we better get a heck of a good player for that.

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  9. First trade of the offseason! J. Sanchez is gone, along with Ryan Verdugo for Melky Cabrera. Cabrera is cheap, switch hits, plays an average to below average CF, and is pretty young for Sabean: 27. Giving up a prospect hurts, and I think this isn't much return for Sanchez. However, I'll trust the Giants to evaluate their pitchers. How this stacks the OF dominos will be interesting.

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  10. When we make trades that actually bring us a player that fits a need, such as CF, then I like it. I just hate it when we make trades when the player we receive is not necessarily better than what we had; Brandon Crawford vs. Orlando Cabrera. Basically we just gave Thomas Neal to Cleveland for nothing with was dumb. Melky should be a decent pickup for us. Hopefully he hits the ground running and we can get him an extension if he deserves it. He is still pretty young and his power may or may not be totally developed which is a plus. I have heard on some players their true power potential does not arrive until 27-29. This should give us an extra 2-3 million to spend as well. I still think we should bring back Ross or Torres on a decreased salary just in case.

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  11. Oops. With his arbitration it will be about the same as Sanchez. I was thinking Cabrera was a little cheaper. I was looking at his 1.25 million 2011 salary.

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  12. The real positive is this might keep Coco Crisp from signing a 2-3 year deal with Los Gigantes. That I can get behind. Yeah, they'll save about 800K-1.5MM depending on how it shakes out Roger.

    Good point about these marginal lateral trades - the Ryan Garko one springs to mind as well. On one hand, they don't hurt either way. On the other hand, why bother? Melky's UZR numbers are not good, does anybody watch the Royals? Sometimes those UZR's don't really show true D skill. I agree that Ross/Torres back still would be nice, but it looks less likely now.

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  13. wow

    had to give up verdugo too

    giants now have even less depth in the pitching dept

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  14. Bacci is right. With Verdugo and Wheeler gone we are getting thin at SP. I have seen some good things out of Kelvin Marte (12-6) and Shawn Sanford (10-10) lost a lot of games with poor run support. Sanford did have a lot of impressive starts though. I am not sure what is happening with Jorge Bucardo. He may have lost a year due to injuries because I cannot find a thing on him. I am not too familiar with any of our SP draftees from 2011 but hopefully there is one or two to watch.

    DrB, any chance of doing a SP depth chart?

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  15. Maybe Sabean dishes out a couple minor league deals with invites to ST, a la Ryan Vogelsong? We really do need a veteran guy who can go 5 innings and keep us in a game half the time just in case Zito is incapable of doing even that...

    DrB, do you think Surkamp still has growth potential to become a 5th guy?

    Melky actually hit LHP and RHP almost equally as well, which does give us a lot more flexibility. Because of Torres' poor season, I think he's the more likely of the two (he and Ross) to come back...

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  16. Seth Rosin is still projected to be a SP I think, and he was worth a roster spot on the AFL Scorpions, maybe he'll show us something this coming year and put his name in the equation as a 5th starter for 2013?

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  17. Anon,

    Just because they went to Fall/Winter ball does not mean they are a prospect or MLB ready. Maday went to Fall ball.

    Granted, I believe Rosin IS a prospect, and foing to AFL is a good sign, but do not read into that that he is ready for a mid-season call up.

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  18. On the Melky trade, I like it. Think of it as Verdugo for Cabrera. Sanchez was not going to be tendered. His reaction to not being offered arbitration was pretty likely to be negative toward the Giants.

    That's what Jonathon has right now to rationalize his poor 2011: "The Giants didn't deal with me properly. Now they non-tendered me. I need to go somewhere else."

    He's a guy that other teams would take a chance on because he has such a crazy high upside. So, I didn't realistically see him returning to the Giants. He was pretty much lost to us.

    Cabrera deals with center well enough, and fits in with buying a year (just one year, not the multi-year deal that Crisp would get) to see how Gary Brown progresses. Success in the Cal League is one thing. Lets see what happens in Richmond.

    While Reyes is tempting, I'd like to see the Giants do the same kind of thing at short with Furcal. (Yes, I know I've been such a Furcal fanboy since the trade-deadline.) Sign Furcal to a year, and see how Panik comes along.

    Then bite the bullet and sign Beltran. It's going to take a 3-year deal. But...we need the damn bat.

    This keeps the Giants low-cost options open in center and at short.

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  19. Oh, didn't mean to skip by Crawford at Short. If he starts hitting in Fresno, of course, he'd be the man in SF. I just don't think you can bank on the guy and hand him the starting position.

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  20. dont think that craw is starting out in fresno

    he has had a solid afl, with pop

    solid spring, cuz they will need his glove, he starts with the big club

    the melky trade gives the giants a lead off guy

    the available ss on the market (except for reyes) are not an upgrade

    i say craw is the captain of the if in 2012

    beltran is going to the al

    this will be his final contract....he is gonna want at least 4 with option

    his knees arent gonna hold up...but he will be a solid dh

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  21. Yeah, it's shaky ground for Giants to give Beltran even 3 years. I'm just looking for some lumber. And if you're right about Craw being the man at short, we're going to need it.

    Also, Melky is a shaky, shaky lead-off guy. Better than what we have, but that just means what we have is pretty thin.

    I'm loving the internet feedback on this trade. Everyone thinks KC pulled a swindle. Just people blown full up with numbers and stats without knowing who Jonathan is.

    No one considers that KC could have had Jonathan for less money (no arbitration) and kept Cabrera when the Giants non-tendered Sanchez.

    Even if Cabrera reverts to Atlanta form (he PROMISES not to do that) it's still a good trade. Time to let someone else deal with the head-case. This is addition by subtraction along the lines of releasing Rowand and moving on.

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