How Accurate Are MLBTR Free Agent Contract Estimates?

Every year MLBTR posts a list of their top 50 MLB free agents with predictions of what their contract will be both in number of years and in total money.  This is a list of MLBTR's top 50 free agents who have already signed with a comparison to what the players actually received in their contracts.  Coloumns will be Name, Team, Predicted Years, Actual Years, Variance of Actual Years from Predicted Years, Predicted Money($), Actual Money($), Variance of Actual Money from Predicted Money, Percent Variance(+/-).  At the end, we'll post Average Variances and Average Absolute Value of Variances and see how accurate MLBTR is in prediction free agent contracts.

Corey Seager(Rangers):  10 yr.  10 yr.   0 yr.  $305 M. $325 M. +$20 M. +6.6%.

Kevin Gausman(Blue Jays):  6 yr.  5 yr.  -1 yr.  $138 M.  $110 M.  -$28 M. -25.5%. 

Marcus Semien(Rangers):  6 yr.  7 yr.  +1 yr.  $138 M.   $175 M.  +$37 M.  +$26.8%. 

Robbie Ray(Mariners):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $130 M.  $115 M.  -$15 M.  -11.5%.

Max Scherzer(Mets):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $120 M.  $130 M.  +$10 M.  +8.3%.

Marcus Stroman(Cubs):  5 yr.  3 yr.  -2 yr.  $110 M.  $71 M.  - $29 M.  -26.3%.

Javier Baez(Tigers):  5 yr.  6 yr.  +1 yr.  $100 M.  $140 M.  +$40M.  +40%.

Starling Marte(Mets):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $80 M.  $78 M.  -$2 M.  -2.5%.

Eduardo Rodriguez(Tigers):  5 yr.  5 yr.  0 yr.  $70 M.  $77 M.  +$7 M. +10%.

Chris Taylor(Dodgers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $64 M.  $60 M.  -$4 M.  -6.3%.

Raisel Iglesias(Angels):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $58 M.  +$2 M. +3.6%.

Jonathan Gray(Rangers):  4 yr.  4 yr.  0 yr.  $56 M.  $56 M.  0 M.  0%.

Anthony DeSclafani(Giants):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $42 M.  $36 M.  -6 M.  -14.3%.

Justin Verlander(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $40 M.  $50 M.   +10 M.  +25%.

Avisail Garcia(Marlins):  3 yr. 4 yr.  +1 yr.  $36 M.  $53 M.  +$17 M.  +47.2%.

Alex Wood(Giants):  3 yr.  2 yr.  - 1 yr.  $30 M.  $25 M.  - $5 M.  -16.7%.  

Steven Matz(Cardinals):  3 yo.  4 yr.  +1 yr.  $27 M.  $44 M.  +$17 M.  +62.8%.

Kendall Graveman(White Sox):  3 yr.  3 yr.  0 yr.  $27 M.  $24 M.  -$3 M.  -$11.1%.

Mark Canha(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $24 M, $26.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +10.4%.

Eduardo Escobar(Mets):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $20 M.  $20 M.  0%.

Brandon Belt(Giants):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr(QO).  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $18.4 M(QO).  $0.  0%.

Noah Syndergaard(Angels):  1 yr(accepts QO).  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18.4 M(QO).  $21 M.  +$3 M.  +14.1%.

Corey Knebel(Phillies):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $18 M.  $10 M.  -$8 M.  -44.4%.

Alex Cobb(Giants):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $16 M.  $20 M.  +$4 M.  +25%.

Hector Neris(Astros):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Mark Melancon(D'Backs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $14 M.  $14 M.  $0.  0%.

Corey Kluber(Rays):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $12 M.  $8 M.  -$4 M.  -33.3%.

Yan Gomes(Cubs):  2 yr.  2 yr.  0 yr.  $10 M.  $13 M.  +3 M.  +30%.

Andrew Heaney(Dodgers):  1 yr.  1 yr.  0 yr.  $6 M.  $8.5 M.  +$2.5 M.  +41.7%.

Average Variance= +$2.5 M

Average Variance(absolute values)= $9.2 M

Average Percent Variance(% of predicted)= 4.9%.

Average Percent Variance(absolute value, % of predicted)= 18%.  

Cumulative Percent Variance= +4.1%

Cumulative Percent Variance(absolute value)= $15.4%

Conclusions:  MLBTR slightly underestimated the overall market.  While variance for individual contracts was fairly high, they overestimated and underestimated approximately equally so their average estimated contract is quite close.  They got the number of years right most of the time and of the ones they missed on most were by just one year.

Based on MLBTR's estimates, it appears both Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood gave significant discounts to stay with the Giants while they slightly overpaid Alex Cobb to sign coming from the Angels.  And of course, almost everybody thought the Giants would give Brandon Belt a QO and that he would accept.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 1

 Round 1(#10 overall):  Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.  

2019 Minors(2 teams):  .229/.438/.429, 5 HR, 7 SB, 38 BB, 39 K, 146 PA.

2021 Minors(3 teams):  .133/.286/.178, 8 BB, 22 K, 56 PA.

2021 AFL:  .262/.373/.381, 6 BB, 20 K, 42 AB.  

Bishop is a guy with huge tools who was drafted out of a big junior season with Arizona St.  Potential red flags in college included high K rates and struggles against stronger competition.  We probably can't make too much out of his initial pro season which produced an extreme three true outcomes batting line.  2021 was mostly lost to injury.  His bat showed signs of life in the Arizona Fall League but still with an extreme K rate and the only HR he hit was in the Fall Stars game.  It's too early to call Bishop a bust, but 2022 will be a huge, almost make-or-break year for him.

What has to be frustrating for Giants fans is that Alek Manoah RHP was taken by the Blue Jays with the next pick and he's already pitching like a near-ace in the major leagues.  Bryson Stott SS was taken 4 picks later by the Phillies and hit .301 with 10 HR's in AA ball.  The Mariners got George Kirby RHP at #20.  He looks like he should break into the majors in 2022.

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Most MLB drafts are made or broken at the top of the draft.  The Giants first two picks in this draft, Bishop and Wyatt have yet to find anything resembling traction in their professional development.  The most promising picks are a couple of bullpen arms from deep in the draft.  Of the hitters, Armani Smith shows the most promise and he's not exactly a sure thing.  Again, too early to write it off, but this draft is on bust watch.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 2

 Round 2:  Logan Wyatt 1B.  DOB:  11/15/1997.  B-R, T-L.  6'4", 230 lbs.

2021 A+:  .238/.398/.295, 20.1 BB%, 18 K%, 289 PA.

The latest "God of Walks".  The walk rates are fantastic and the K rate is also quite good.  The problem here is the complete absence of power, even doubles power.  He's a 1B/DH only guy and the power simply has to come or he doesn't have a role on a MLB roster.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Two Minor League Deals

The Giants added a couple of minor league deals reported yesterday.    Let's break it down.

Bryan Brickhouse RHP.  DOB:  6/6/1992.  6'0", 195 lbs.  

2021 AA(Dodgers):  1-3, 3.45, 60 IP, 7.65 K/9, 2.40 BB/9(10 Starts in 19 Appearances).  

Brickhouse pitched 6 seasons in the Royals organization since 2012(DNP 2016 and 2017).  He was plagued by wildness until he hooked on with the Dodgers last year and produced his best BB/9 by far.  If he sustains that, he provided depth in the upper minors with potential for a midseason callup if a need arises at the MLB level.

Jason Krizan UT.  DOB:  6/28/1989.  B-L, T-R.  6'0", 185 lbs.  

2021 AAA(Giants):  .316/.367/.492, 16 HR, 8.1 BB%, 14.6 K%, 480 PA.  

Krizan has played every position but catcher in his minor league career.  His versatility is a big plus and he provided depth at multiple positions.  Similar player to Tommy La Stella.  I could see him filling in for that role if Tommy's return from Achilles Tendon surgery is delayed.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 3

Round 3:  Grant McCray OF.  DOB:  12/07/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'2", 170 lbs.

 2021 Rookie:  .309/.400/.455, HR, 3 SB, 9 BB, 20 K, 65 PA.

2021 A:  .250/.299/.400, 2 HR, 4 SB, 6 BB, 30 K, 88 PA.  

Son of Rodney McCray who had a brief MLB career but is more famous for crashing through a minor league OF wall.  Grant was always a project and pure projection pick.  If you squint hard you can see a starting MLB CF/leadoff hitter with some power, speed and OBP skills.  Important development year coming up.  Should be ready to play full season of A ball in San Jose.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 4

 Round 4:  Tyler Fitzgerald IF.   DOB:  9/15/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 205 lbs.  

2021 A+:  .262/.342/.495,  28 2B, 2 3B, 19 HR, 12 SB, 8.8 BB%, 32.2 K%, 432 PA.

Nice combination of power/speed here.  The jump in K rate from 20% to 32% is a bit alarming, but the Giants philosophy apparently is to not worry too much about K rate.  49 out of 100 hits went for extra bases.  He keeps this going at AA in he's knocking on the door.  Size projects for even more power.

2019 Giants Draft Review: Round 5

We'll slow it down here and review the last 5 picks individually.  

Round 5:  Garrett Frechette 1B.  DOB:  12/31/2000.   B-L, T-L.  6'3", 200 lbs.  

2021 Rookie:  .331/.388/.438, 13 2B, HR, 6.9 BB%, 27.7 K%, 188 PA.

2021 A:           .219/.268/.289, HR, 5.7 BB%, 31.7 K%, 123 PA.

Overslot bonus for HS draftee.  Fell to 5'th round due to injury and illness his senior year of HS.  Big, strong LH hitter with a sweet swing that projects for contact and power.  Struggled with a reasonable assignment in A ball, then destroyed the complex league.  Still shows just doubles power in games but also still filling out frame.  Needs to find traction in San Jose in 2022.