Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Carlos Rodon

The Giants moved quickly once the lockout ended to fill the last slot in their starting rotation, except they filled one of the top two slots and bumped everyone else down a slot.  On paper, Carlos Rodon was the best available free agent SP and by a large margin, but comes with significant injury concerns which is probably what enabled them to sign him to a short-term deal.  The reported contract calls for 2 years/$44 M with an opt out for Rodon after the first season.  The $44 M is split as $21.5 M this season and $22.5 M in 2023.  That difference is unlikely to impact his decision on whether to opt out.  So, what are the Giants getting here?  Let's break it down:

Carlos Rodon LHP.  DOB:  12/10/1992.  6'3", 245 lbs.

2021(White Sox):  13-5, 2.37, 132.2 IP, 12.55 K/9, 2.44 BB/9.

Carlos Rodon was the #3 overall draft pick by the White Sox in 2014.  He was known for having an above average FB and a killer slider in college.  He pitched 139.1 innings the following season.  On the surface, there is nothing to detract from his 2021 performance which would ordinarily get him to a 9-figure contract similar to what Kevin Gausman got from the Blue Jays.  There are two issues with Rodon that limited his value:  1.  A history of injuries limiting his innings and effectiveness in 2017-2020.  2.  A dramatic and sustained drop in FB velocity after a midseason start 7/18/2021.  Was this velocity drop due to expected fatigue of a full season after several seasons of low IP, or was it a harbinger of injury?  He did come back from a 12 day layoff to throw 96 MPH FB's in a playoff start but lasted just 2.2 innings.  

If he is fully healthy, Rodon gives the Giants a much needed co-ace and someone who can take the pressure off Logan Webb.  He seems to carry a significant risk of recurrent injury but the worst case scenario is the Giants are only on the hook for 2 years.  FZ has never shied away from pitchers with injury histories apparently viewing them as undervalued commodities.  He also appears to hate anything longer than a 3-year commitment for any pitcher, so he's willing to take the injury risk in return for a shorter window of risk.  I, for one, can't wait to see Rodon twirl that slider in a Giants uniform.

Down on the Farm: Potential Midseason Rookies

The Lockout is finally over and a new CBA ratified.  Organizations can resume transactions immediately. A few things are settled.  NL and the Giants add a DH.  Other items are still under negotiation including a possible temporary roster expansion and several other rule changes.  MLB has a 45 day window to implement certain rule changes for 2023 including pitch clock, limitations on defensive positioning, increase in base size and....get this....automated ball/strike calling.  Hmm.....seems like the umps union might have a say in the ball/strike thing.  There is a big change in the draft with all 18 non-playoff teams entering a lottery for the top 6 picks.  The old "draft and follow" system will return.  This year's Rule 5 draft is cancelled(whew!).  The two sides have an extended window until June 25 to negotiate an international draft and elimination of the Qualifying Offer starting in 2024.  If they fail to reach an agreement, current rules for both will remain in place.  Got all that?  Good!  While we wait for the Hot Stove to explode,  let's take a look at some Giants prospects who have a chance for a midseason promotion to The Show:

Heliot Ramos OF-  Ramos is just starting his age 22 season and is just starting his option clock so there is no rush but if a need arises and Ramos breaks out in AAA, he should be in line for an early promotion which is more likely if the Giants fail to sign another RH hitter such as Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos or Seiya Suzuki in the free agent rush.

Kervin Castro RHP- We mentioned him as a longshot to be on the Opening Day roster.  Renewed roster limit of 13 pitchers makes that less likely so he will likely open in Sacramento and be in line for an early call back.

David Villar 3B- Villar quietly had a great season for AA Richmond last year.  He definitely stays in the organization since the Rule 5 Draft is cancelled.  But he's not currenly on the 40 man roster so is unlikely to open the season in the major leagues.  He should be considered as soon as Evan Longoria suffers his annual extended injury.  Villar could also be trade bait.

Diego Rincones OF- Another Rule 5 Draft eligible who isn't going anywhere.  Could be an option for adding a RH OF bat if Heliot Ramos fails to gain traction in his AAA season.

Will Bednar RHP- It would be aggressive promoting, but I see Bednar in a similar mold as other college pitchers from elite programs who have pitched in the majors their first full pro season.

Sean Hjelle RHP- Hjelle is on the 40 man roster so may be in line in front of Bednar, but despite his carnival side-show size, he does not have Bednar's velocity or command.

RJ Dabovitch RHP- Dabovich has elite velocity and even more elite K rates last season.  He could jump to the head of the reliever pack when it comes time to replenish the bullpen midseason.

Late-season callups are now limited by limitations on September roster expansion.

Down On The Farm: Opening Day Rookies

Let's break down the Giants top prospects by ETA to the major leagues.  This is not an exhaustive list but we'll try to include as many of the top prospects as possible.  We'll list them by ETA and give a short scenario of why they may arrive in The Show when we estimate.  As always, E stands for Estimate not Prediction. We'll start with prospects who we think will be on there on Opening Day 2022.

Joey Bart C- There are several reasons why Joey Bart is almost a certainty to be on the Giants 26 man Active Roster on Opening Day and probably the starting catcher that day.  1.  There are very few, if any, reasonable options.  The free agent market is dismal.  The minor league free agent market is full of guys who are in that situation for a reason.  They might be OK as fallback plans but they aren't going to be your Opening Day catcher.  There are a couple of intriguing options on the trade market but does FZ really want to pay the trade cost in prospects for Willson Contreras?  2.  FZ came right out and stated at the beginning of the Hot Stove season that Joey Bart is "ready".  So far, at least, FZ is like Brian Sabean in that he may not give a straight answer often, but when he does, he's not lying.  3.  While Joey Bart could probably stand a little more salt in AAA, ultimately he's going to have to adjust to MLB pitching.  Why not let him get a head start on that by putting him out there Opening Day? Of course, the corollary to that is the Giants need to prepare to be patients as rookie slumps are almost inevitable.  This is the dawning of the age of Joey Bart!

Camilo Doval RHP- Doval was the Giants Closer at the end of last season and into the postseason.  He may not be on Opening Day but barring a massive loss of command in spring training, he's a lock to be on the Opening Day Roster and will likely close a significant number of games over the course of the season, although look for Gabe Kapler to not get too dependent on any one reliever as his Closer.

Kervin Castro RHP-  Let's take a look at two pitching lines from 2021:

Player 1:  

AAA:  6-1, 2.86, 44 IP, 12.27 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

MLB:  1-1, 0.00, 13.1 IP, 8.78 K/9, 2.70 BB/9.

Player 2:

AAA:  3-0, 4.99, 30.2 IP, 12.91 K/9, 7.04 BB/9.

MLB:  5-1, 3.00, 27 IP, 12.33 K/9, 3.00 BB/9. 

Player 1 is Kervin Castro.  Player 2 is Camilo Doval.  Doval may have the edge based on stuff and velocity, but Castro actually pitched better at both AAA and MLB levels and in not a tiny sample size. Castro may not be there Opening Day due to options and numbers but it's also not impossible he could outpitch Doval in spring training by enough of a margin to send Doval down in favor of Castro.

Jason Krizan 2B/UT-  Krizan is really a post-prospect but he has yet to play a MLB game.  He's here purely for depth, but that may work in his favor if Tommy La Stella is not ready by Opening Day.  Krizan is a very similar player who bats from the same side of the plate.  It's unlikely the Giants will sign a LH batting 2B or trade for one if they think La Stella will be ready anytime before the All-Star Break.

Heliot Ramos OF- There is an outside chance that if the Giants fail to sign or trade for a RH OF bat post-lockout, that Ramos could win the role in Spring Training.  More likely he starts the season in AAA and waits for an opening.

Prospect Retrospective: Ehire Adrianza

 One of our readers commented in a previous post that Ehire Adrianza carved a remarkable and surprisingly lucrative professional baseball career out of the last roster spot of every team he's been a member of.  Once upon a time, I had high hopes for Adrianza as a prospect in the Giants minor league system.  While he never became the player I hoped for, he managed to spend time on a MLB active roster for nine straight seasons starting in 2013, a remarkable record for longevity.  On top of that, he has signed contracts paying at least $1 M in each of the last four seasons.  Let's take a look back at his professional career and see how it developed.

Adrianza was an international free agent from Venezuela signed by the Giants in 2006.  He was a lean-framed SS who made his professional debut at at 16 the same year and hit just .156 but with a 15.5 BB%.  He repeated the DSL in 2007 and improved his slash line to .241/.351/.325.  What got my attention, though was another strong walk rate of 13.6% while halving his K rate to 10.3%.  He also stole 23 bases and hit 17 doubles in 302 PA.  Hey!  A SS who can get on base, steal a base and play great defense is a valuable commodity.  I also felt like he could develop future power.

His "breakout" season was 2010 with A+ San Jose.  His .256 BA was not so impressive, but walked 9.3% with 17.1% K's and stole 33 bases.  Scouting reports said he had excellent range at SS with an adequate arm. I again envisioned a player who could at least provide great defense at SS while getting on base and stealing bases at the top of the batting order.  I still felt the power might come as the body matured.  John Sickels at Minor League Ball had positive things to say about him in some notes from 2013 but was quite bearish on any future power development, which is what I kept hoping for.  While praising his defense, Sickels called Adrianza "a switch-hitter, he has better-than-average speed and is an effective stealer.  He also controls the strike zone reasonably well, doesn't strike out that much, will take a walk and is a good bunter, all positive traits of course.  The problem is lack of power:  he doesn't have any and even when he makes solid contact the ball doesn't go very far."  

Unfortunately, the power never developed and the SB's dropped off at higher levels.  The numbers were good enough to stay in the organization but not enough to project a significant MLB career.  By the time he made his MLB debut in 2013, Brandon Crawford was firmly ensconced as the Giants SS.  Adrianza rode the shuttle to Fresno for the next 4 seasons.

His time with the Giants ran out in 2017 and he hit the waiver wire landing with the Twins where he found more playing time.  His first 7 digit contract was for $1 M in 2018 and he earned an estimated combined $7 M in 6+ years of service time.  He is currently a free agent and was by MLBTR as being in the mix for an open starting SS position with the Twins.

Adrianza's stat lines have been remarkably consistent throughout his minor and major league career.  His career slash line of .244/.313/.379 with 8.0 BB% and 19 K% is pretty much what he was doing in the low minors back in the 2000's.  

So, what held the power back?  I think the answer is in his approach.  If you look at his GB/FB ratios through the minors, they were up and down but mostly up in the 1.5 range.  I'm pretty sure the Giants coaches, like me, envisioned him as a potential leadoff batter with on-base/SB skills and taught him to slap down on the ball and let the magic of BABIP combined with his better than average walk rate get him on base where his speed would be a plus.  Unfortunately that skill set doesn't play in today's major leagues and the SB's disappeared anyway.

Ehire Adrianza's career is remarkable for it's longevity.  He has now been a professional baseball player for 15 years.  He's shown that a fringe player can have a long professional baseball career and make a comfortable living while doing it.  

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #1 Marco Luciano

 Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.  

2021(A):  .278/.373/.556, 18 HR, 5 SB, 12.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, 308 PA.

2021(A+):  .217/.283/.295, HR, SB, 6.9 BB%, 37.2 K%, 145 PA.

2021(AFL):  .253/.356/.373, 12.6 BB%, 32.2 K%, 87 PA.

Marco Luciano was the top international prospect signed by the Giants in 2018 for $2.6 M.  Considering they also signed Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares that year, that's saying something.  Although Luciano was not necessarily the top overall international prospect in 2018, he was ranked by analysts as having the top tools.  So far, he has lived up to the hype. The top tool is power.  With a filled out frame, 2021 was a breakout power year mostly for A level San Jose.  Video of his 2021 performance put together by Sean Bialaszek shows Luciano spraying home runs to all fields with the kind of easy power you see from the top hitters in the game.

The 36 games for A+ Eugene were a bit of faceplant, but it was a late season promotion and Luciano was the youngest player in the league.  His numbers recovered somewhat for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the AFL and he was likely one of the youngest players in that league too.  

He's slipped a bit in Fangraphs overall prospect rankings, mainly due to a concern about whether he can remain as shortstop.  Apparently the rap is with throwing accuracy, not arm strength.  Giants Farm Director, Kyle Haines, was less specific but also voiced concerns.  "He's not going to be Brandon Crawford.  I don't see that."  If Luciano has to move off SS, it obviously affects his future value in prospect rankings, but the bat looks like it should easily play anywhere on the field.  I think we are talking 35-40 HR/year over multiple seasons.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #2 Luis Matos

Luis Matos OF.  DOB:  1/28/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 160 lbs.  

2021(A):  .313/.358/.494, 15 HR, 21 SB, 5.7 BB%, 12.4 K%, 491 PA.

I am not sure I remember the Giants having a true 5-tool CF since Willie Mays.  Maybe Chili Davis?  Let me introduce you to Luis Matos, who has a chance to be that guy.  Not the next Willie Mays, mind you.  That's an impossible ask, but Matos has a legitimate shot at being the best Giants CF since Willie Mays.  He is coming off a tremendous age 19 season in A ball with a relatively low BB% being the only question mark.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Matos has plus-plus bat speed and the wheels to stay in center field, with only his aggressive approach holding him back from the 55 tier."  In my opinion, that's being just a bit nitpicky for a 19 yo kid.  If the low BB% was tied to a high K rate, there would be real reason for worry.  As it is, he really only needs to be slightly more selective and has plenty of time to figure it out. 

Marco Luciano has more present power and probably more future power potential, but with serious questions about his ability to stick at SS, Luis Matos is closing in fast on a legitimate claim for #1 Giants prospect.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #3 Joey Bart

 Joey Bart C.  DOB:  12/15/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 238 lbs.

2021(AAA):  .294/.358/.472, 10 HR, 7.5 BB%, 29.4 K%, 279 PA.

2021(MLB):  2 for 6, 0 BB, 2 K.

Joey Bart was the Giants #2 overall draft pick in 2018 after an outstanding junior season at Georgia Tech, somewhat of a catcher factory school.  He's a huge, hulking dude but surprisingly athletic for his size.  While he does not project to be an elite defensive catcher, he's more than adequate.  The big question is with the bat.  The raw power is immense, but is it usable?  After a rough MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he was assigned to AAA last year with hopes of dominating.  Although his slash line looks solid on the surface it came with a K rate approaching the red zone.

After Buster Posey's retirement, FZ gave Bart a vote of confidence saying he showed he is ready.  That has not completely quieted the doubters and talks of the Giants going out and getting another veteran C to start the season have grown louder as the lockout has stretched on.  If you look at what's available on the FA market, any reasonable person would conclude the Giants are probably better off to role with Bart and Casali and hope Ricardo Genoves(if he doesn't get nabbed in the Rule 5 Draft) and Patrick Bailey are ready to stand in the gap if necessary.  Being handed the starting C job from day one of the season, whenever it occurs, is a tremendous opportunity that few prospects get.  It's up to Bart to grab it by the throat.  We'll all be watching with interest.  If he taps into a fraction of his power potential, he'll be a plus.  Taking over as the #1 catcher immediately after Buster Posey has to be intimidating.  Us fans need to realize nobody is going to replace Buster Posey but maybe someday we say the same about Joey Bart.