DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #5 Logan Webb

Logan Webb RHP.  DOB:  11/18/1996.  6'2", 220 lbs.

2019(MLB):  2-3, 5.22, 39.2 IP, 8.39 K/9, 3.18 BB/9. GB/FB= 2.11, 4.12 FIP, 3.89 xFIP.

Pretty much every Giants top prospect list has a top 4 of Bart, Ramos, Luciano, Bishop with some reversing Ramos and Luciano.  Once you get past that top tier though, the lists start to diverge.  My thought on Logan Webb is you have to be quite a prospect to rank higher than a guy who already showed he could compete at the MLB level.  Webb still qualifies as a prospect with less than 50 IP.  His MLB ERA is a bit ugly but the peripherals are strong.  While he doesn't have any significant physical projection, he has opportunity to refine his game which he has already shown the ability to do.

Webb appeared to be ready for an early MLB debut before getting popped for a PED suspension early in 2019.  He insists he does not know how the substance got into his body, but has stated it could have been a contaminated supplement.  Given the utter lack of evidence for supplement efficacy, he might want to just lay off those entirely going forward.  Anyway, the FB was down a tick for two from 2018, but per Fangraphs scouting report, he backs it up with a "dastardly" slider and an "improved" changeup.  The two-seam FB produces solid groundball numbers.  He'll have to watch out for the launch-angle hitters in MLB.  I'm thinking we could see the FB back up a tick in 2020 and he should continue to improve his command and pitch sequencing.

Farhan seems to want to find out what he has in Webb and Tyler Beede, but I could also see Webb starting out the 2020 season back in AAA if Farhan adds more depth in the Hot Stove season.  In any event, he should get plenty of innings at the MLB level.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Lose Nemesis

Over the past 6 seasons, Hyun-Jin Ryu made 18 Starts against the Giants with a 7-6 record and a 2.60 ERA.  Not only will he not be pitching for the Dodgers anymore, he'll be pitching in another league as he signed a 4 yr/$80 M contract with the Blue Jays.  This represents a major offseason win for the Giants without them having to spend a penny.  Although Ryu pitched like an ace when he was healthy, he missed huge chunks of time with injuries during his Dodgers career.  He's 33 years old to boot which makes this an extremely risky contract for the BJ's.  So no thank you.  Better he's with the Jays and out of the league than having that potential millstone of a contract around the Giants necks.  So much winning!

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Before the Winter Meetings, Farhan Zaidi said he was looking for a lefthanded hitting infielder.  One free agent who fit that description was Travis Shaw.  That option is off the market as he signed with the Blue Jays for 1 yr/$4 M guarantee with another $675 K in incentives.  Although Shaw was a terror at the plate in 2017 and 2018, his numbers cratered in 2019 to the point he was demoted to AAA and then non-tendered by the Brewers this fall.  $4 M guaranteed seems like a lot to see if he can bounce back.

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After the Ryu signing, LHP Alex Wood is suddenly MLBTR's top rated pitching free agent left on the market so a true replacement for Madison Bumgarner is not apparent at this point.  I look for Farhan to make a couple more depth signings.  Possible targets include Wood, RHP's Taijuan Walker, Homer Bailey, Andrew Cashner, Jerad Eickoff, Jimmy Nelson, Danny Salazar, and LHP's Drew Smyly and Rich Hill.  Farhan seems to be waiting for the market to come to him, but right now it sure seems like the market is running away.

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Left-handed hitting infielders left on the market include Asdrubal Cabrera(S), Scooter Gennett, Cesar Hernandez(S), Brock Holt, Brad Miller, Joe Panik, Yangervis Solarte(S), Neil Walker(S) and Ben Zobrist(S).

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #4 Hunter Bishop

Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.

2018(College):  .250/.352/.407, 5 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 4 SB, 10.91 BB%, 30.30 K%, 165 PA.
2018(Cape Cod League):  .233/.369/.350, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 SB, 16.11 BB%, 30.20 K%, 149 PA.
2019(College):  .342/.479/.748, 16 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 12 SB, 17.86 BB%, 21.79 K%, 280 PA.
R(AZL):  .250/.483/.550, 3 2B, HR, 2 SB, 31.0 BB%, 37.9 K%, 29 PA.
Short Season:  .224/.427/.400, 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 6 SB, 24.8 BB%, 23.9 K%, 117 PA.

The first draft pick of the Farhan Zaidi era.  Wow! Where to start with Hunter Bishop?  I guess the tools:  60 speed and 65 raw power.  Probably the most likely of the Giants bevy of OF prospects to end up in CF.  Arm is average.  The big question is the hit tool.  The college stat line from his junior season looks gaudy, but he built up a lot of that in non-conference play.  He hit just .264 with 7 HR in 145 PA in Pac-12 conference play with a soaring K rate.  Fangraphs attributes this to swinging over the improved breaking balls he saw in the Pac-12.  Then there are the numbers from his pro debut which are the most extreme true outcomes I recall seeing or hearing of in a pro debut.  I mean, even with a sample size of over 100 PA's at Salem-Keizer, almost 50% of his PA's ended in either a BB or a K.

So, 2020 promises to be a most telling season for where his career is heading.  I would think we'll see him in San Jose to start the season.  The patience and the power are great, but he almost certainly has to cut down on the K's and learn to handle breaking balls if he's ever going to put those tools and skills to use at higher levels.

Like his older brother, Braden, Hunter Bishop's makeup is said to be off the charts.  The Bishop boys recently held a fundraiser for their charity, 4MOM, in honor of their mother who died from early-onset Alzheimer's disease.  New Giants manager, Gabe Kapler, attended the event.

Hot Stove Update: White Sox Sign White Soxian Pitcher

Do you remember Mark Buerhle?  Of course you do!  Soft tossing lefty.  Didn't miss many bats.  Threw a no-hitter for the White Sox.  Well, the White Sox went out and signed Mark Buerhle Part Deux, Dallas Keuchal.  Keuchal is a former Cy Young award winner for the Astros, but has settled into a Mark Buerhle type career more recently.  That netted him a 3 year/$55 M contract with the White Sox with a vesting option for a 4'th year which would bring the total to 4 yrs/$74 M.  Keuchal seemed like an option for Farhan to sign, but I'm thinking Farhan is more interested in taking risks with pitchers who throw harder and have more swing and miss stuff.

The Chisox signed another White Soxian pitcher in Gio Gonzalez who is basically and older, cheaper version of Dallas Keuchal.  Gio's deal is for 1 yr/$4.5 with $1 M in incentives plus a team option for $7 M in. 2021 with a $500 K buyout.

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Other signings around the league include:

RHP Julio Tehran:  Angels, 1 yr/$9 M.
1B/DH CJ Cron: Tigers, 1 yr/$6.1 M
2B Jonathan Schoop:  Tigers,  1 yr/$6.1 M.
C Martin Maldonado:  Astros, 2 yr/$7 M(Re-sign).
2B Ian Kinsler:  Announced his retirement.
LHP Martin Perez:  Red Sox, 1 yr/$6 M with $6.25 M club option for 2021 with $500 K buyout.
3B Maikel Franco:  Royals, 1 yr/$2.95 with $1.05 M additional incentives.
1B/DH Justin Smoak:  Brewers, 1 yr/4.4 M with $5.5 M option for 2021 with $1 M buyout.
LHP Wade Miley:  Reds, $2 yrs/$14 M with $500 K incentives per year with club option for $10 M in 2022 with $1 M buyout.
2B Eric Sogard:  Brewers, 1 yr/$4.5 M with option.
OF Matt Kemp:  Marlins, minor league deal.
3B/1B Ryon Healy:  Brewers, ? terms(nice upside play here.
LHP Kwang-Hyun Kim:  Cardinals, 2 yrs/$8 M with $1.5 M incentives + 20% posting fee to SK Wyverns( I wondered if Zaidi might be fishing in in the Asian market- Maybe not).

Listing above mainly to get a view of the market for various player types.

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In response to a couple of comments to my last post:

I would not be surprised if Farhan Zaidi has more tricks up his sleeve, but I feel like I'm pretty safe in saying a trade of YtY and Brandon Belt for David Price and Tristan Casas is not going to happen.  Too many reasons why both teams would not want that deal.

Again, I doubt FZ considers Marcel Ozuna an option because I think he highly values the draft pick which would be lost due to QO.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Outfield Needs

Farhan Zaidi made some nifty moves at the Winter Meetings which Giants fans should be happy about.  He essentially purchased a mid-first round draft pick(Will Wilson) for $12 M, the remaining cost of Zack Cozart's contract, signed an enigmatic pitcher who still has a high ceiling(Kevin Gausman) for the relatively low cost of $9 M and plucked an interesting arm from the Rule 5 Draft in Dany Jimenez.  What has Giants fans restless and maybe a bit confused is Farhan implied going in that he was looking to make bigger deals than those enumerating a RH slugging corner OF, LH infielder and Starting Pitcher as his needs.  So far, he has not met those expectations he created.  In fact, he appears to have fallen further behind the curve with the departure of Madison Bumgarner, the leader of the starting rotation and Kevin Pillar, last season's best OF.

After Pillar was non-tendered, Farhan explained the decision as creating opportunity to evaluate younger players like Steven Duggar and Jaylin Davis.  We've even read about Manager Gabe Kapler  checking in on Joe McCarthy and there is talk of trying Mauricio Dubon in the OF!  Farhan and Kapler have invested a ton of political capital in an army of player development zealots and why do that if you aren't going to commit to developing players?  If that is the plan, I for one am fine with it, but then why do we keep hearing about pursuits of likes of Nick Castellanos and Steven Souza Jr?  And how does player development, which generally takes time and patience, fit with The Churn?

With that background, let's break down what the Giants currently have and who they might still acquire in the free agent and trade markets:

Current 40 Man Roster:

Jaylin Davis RH:  AAA monster bat with enough speed and athleticism to play all 3 OF positions.  Farhan and Gabe have pointed to him as a guy who could be unlocked at the MLB level by the new player development gurus.

Alex Dickerson LH:  Exciting bat when healthy, but has never stayed healthy for long.  Defensively challenged and limited to LF.

Steven Duggar LH:  Probably the best defensive CF on the roster, but has had last two seasons cut short by shoulder injuries and the bat is still a question mark.

Joe McCarthy LH:  intriguing bat, but needs to prove it at AAA first.

Chris Shaw LH:  Light tower power but will the bat play?  Limited to LF or 1B.  Probably more of a backup plan for if Dickerson gets hurt again.

Austin Slater RH:  Another intriguing talent who has not quite put it all together.  Can play both corners but CF only in a pinch.

Mike Yastrzemski LH:  Last year's breakout.  Is there room to grow or will last year prove to be the peak of his career?

Mauricio Dubon RH:  Presumptive starter at 2B but can also play SS.  Talk of expanding his versatility by trying him in CF!  This would enable Gabe to run a straight platoon at all 3 OF positions:  Dickerson/Slater LF, Duggar/Dubon CF, Y2Y/Davis RF.

All that might be fun for us hardcore types to watch, but is it enough to put the butts of ordinary fans in seats?  Probably not.  The big question is how much ownership and management are willing to sacrifice butts for lower payroll in the short term and how committed they are to seeing if the investment in player development will pay off?

Now let's move on to the FA/Trade market and see what is still available after the wave of high priced signings:

Nick Castellanos:  Rumors of a mutual interest seemed to be heating up, but now seem to have cooled in the last few days.  A clear upgrade at the plate, but defensively challenged and likely limited to LF which would push Alex Dickerson off the team or at least to the bench.  Castellanos would be a significant multi-year investment.  Is he THAT guy?

Marcel Ozuna:  Seems like the best overall OF on the market, but has a QO and Farhan seems to place an incredibly high value on draft picks.  So I'm thinking Ozuna is not an option for that reason alone.

Yasiel Puig:  Losing Bumgarner and adding Puig would be an enormous outrage for a lot of Giants fans including people in my own family.  He's not a terrible fit, though, and may come at a significant discount due to off-field and clubhouse concerns.  Much more versatile defensively than Castellanos.

Steven Souza Jr:  Nice bounceback candidate who would be a short term commitment at a discount, but may not be all that cheap as several other teams are reportedly interested.

Joey Rickard:  Nice cheap short half of platoon option, but probably not worth bumping Slater/Davis/Dubon from those roles.

Kevin Pillar:  Most fans would probably be happy with Pillar as the full time CF, but if Farhan wanted him, he would have likely signed him at the Non-tender deadline. Farhan seems to have moved on.

Wil Myers:  The Padres have a loaded farm system which might interest Farhan in another prospect buying deal.  Is Myers a potential project for the Player Development boys?  That's a big contract to take on!

There you have it!  Are there any other under-the-radar options out there?  How would you like to see the Giants outfield situation shake out?

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #3 Marco Luciano

Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.

R(AZL):  .322/.438/.616, 9 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 8 SB, 15.2 BB%, 21.9 K%, 178 PA.
Short Season:  .212/.316/.333, 4 2B, SB, 13.2 BB%, 15.8 K%, 38 PA.

Marco Luciano was one of the highest rated prospects in the 2018 J2 international pool and the Giants nabbed him along with several other highly rated prospects.  Arizona rookie league is an agressive placement for international prospects in their first pro season and Luciano absolutely crushed it.  Then after a 1 for 16 start after an unusually agressive late season promotion to Salem-Keizer, he went 6 for 21 with 3 doubles in his last 5 games.  His season was then cut short by some sort of tweak which is not expected to be in issue going forward.  In addition to strong slash lines, Luciano showed excellent plate discipline with a strong walk rate and relatively low K rate.

I ranked Heliot Ramos a tick ahead of Marco, because of Heliot's performance at AA at age 19, but Marco likely has the higher ceiling of the two.  Once again, the Fangraphs boys break out the colorful language to describe what sounds like an ecstatic experience watching Marco take batting practice in Arizona.  Just listen to this:  "....a few lucky scouts and media folks had a religious experience watching the sweetest-swinging teenager on Earth absolutely roast balls fed to his barrel by a high-speed pitching machine."  There is a video clip attached to Marco's line in Fangraphs Giants prospect list which I think is from this batting practice session.  Go check it out!

On video, while he is not quite as bulky as Heliot Ramos, Marco is noticeably broad shouldered, but otherwise a bit more lithe with more fluidity to his movements.  There are questions about his ability to make off-balance throws from SS and talk of ultimately moving to the OF.  Other scouts think he can stick at SS.  If he does, he could be a top 5 overall prospect in a couple of years.

Whether you favor proximity or ceiling, it's incredibly exciting to have two young prospects of the caliber of Heliot Ramos and Marco Luciano at 2 and 3.  Ramos is obviously closing in on a MLB debut having played in AA and the AFL.  Luciano might not be far behind and will likely move up the ladder much faster under the Farhan Zaidi regime than what we are used to seeing.  I could even see him making his MLB debut sometime during his age 19 season in 2021.

DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #2 Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos OF.  DOB:  9/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.

A+:  .306/.385/.500, 18 2B, 13 HR, 6 SB, 9.5 BB%, 25.1 K%, 338 PA.
AA:  .242/.321/.421, 6 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 2 SB, 9.4 BB%, 31.1 K%, 105 PA.
AFL:  .185/.250/.262, 2 2B, HR, SB, 5 BB, 23 K, 70 PA.

The Fangraphs boys strike again as they describe Heliot Ramos(pronounced Elliott) as "built like a boulder set on top of two Iberian hams."  Ramos, who struggled in low A Augusta in 2018, bounced back with a strong 2019 campaign at a young age for his level showing an ability to hit for both average and power and the ability to take a walk.  The only negative being a high K rate, although age is a consideration here and the 25% for the bulk of the season in San Jose is manageable as long as it comes with strong walk rate.

While the age vs level is favorable, Heliot probably does not have any significant physical projection due to the above described physique.  It does give him time to polish up his approach at the plate.  Unfortunately, there is already evidence of speed regression which may force him to a corner OF role.

I am still ranking him over Marco Luciano in my #2 slot due to performance at a higher level of play and proximity to the majors while admitting Luciano appears to have a significantly higher ceiling.