The trade market heated up as the Padres continued to remake their OF situation by acquiring Tommy Pham from the Rays for Hunter Renfroe. SS prospect Xavier Edwards is also moving from the Padres to the Rays with a PTBNL coming back. Pham is probably more of an all-around player than Renfroe, but Renfroe has tremendous power that he may be just starting to tap into. Fangraphs also surprisingly(at least to me) grades Renfroe out as a better fielder. The Padres seem to be making aggressive challenge trades this hot stove season and it's a challenge to see how they have really helped themselves.
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The Brewers acquired left-handed hitting C Omar Narvaez from the Mariners for a prospect and a CB round draft pick. I always like the setup of a left-handed hitting primary catcher paired in a straight platoon with a righty hitter. The Mariners apparently see Tom Murphy emerging as their primary catcher which made Narvaez, who seems to be a bit defensively challenged, expendable.
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The Astros shipped OF Jake Marisnick to the Mets for a couple of minor leaguers. Marisnick has all the tools in the world but struggles at the plate against RHP's so is limited to the the short end of a platoon and late-inning defensive replacement. It's not clear how this trade moves the needle much for the Mets.
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The Giants announced a couple of hires: 33 yo Donnie Ecker will be the new hitting coach. Ecker was the assistant hitting coach for the Reds and is credited with helping Aristides Aquino unlock his power. Ecker's playing career never got past the low minors and indy ball but he has made a name for himself as a coach at the HS, college and pro levels. The Giants also announced the addition of Mets Director of Pro Scouting Jim D'Aloia to the Giants scouting staff. Aloia is reported to have argued strongly against including Jarred Kelenic in the Cano/Diaz trade. So far, it looks like he was right in that argument. I'll give credit to Farhan for casting a wide net and creating new roles for his coaching and scouting hires while bringing in young guys who appear to be very innovative and forward thinking with strong emphasis on getting better performance out of talent already in the organization. We look forward to seeing results in the field.
Friday, December 6, 2019
Thursday, December 5, 2019
Thoughts on Payroll
LG read someplace the Giants payroll target for 2020 is around $140 M. Now, $140 M is a whole lot of money and quite a bit more than some teams are planning to pay their players, so if that's what the Giants feel they can spend, I should not begrudge them. It's the rationale that bugs me. They don't want to get boxed into a corner with more big, longterm contracts. Again, I don't know what "cap" Giants ownership has given Farhan to work with. Attendance is down dramatically over the past two seasons. Spending more money in preceding years has admittedly not resulted in winning and a sold out ballpark. I have a sneaking suspicion, based on nothing more than suspicion, that perhaps a side project or two may not be progressing as smoothly as drawn up. Maybe there's a reason why family members of the financial heavy hitters in the ownership group have recently become dramatically more involved? But all that aside, the Giants are still widely believed to be one of the most financially successful teams in MLB and should be able to afford a payroll close to the CBT target of about $210 M. So I'm still working with the theorem that the Giants can easily afford whatever the CBT threshold is for a given season.
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting the Giants need to saddle up with a bunch of contracts that get all the way up to the CBT, not just this year but for 5-7 years down the road, but you have to remember their current payroll obligations are not static going forward either. $140 M is a full $70 M under that target. On top of that, there is at least another $18 M coming off the books after 2010 and another close to $70 M coming off after 2021 and yet another $13 M after 2022. I mean, how much payroll flexibility is enough? Working off the CBT as the "cap", my target for 2020 would be more in the range of $180 M which still gives them $30 M of payroll freedom this year, close to $50 for 2021 and almost unlimited amounts for 2022.
Not that they should spend money just to meet a minimum target, but if there is a player(s) who can help this team now and for 3-5 years into the future, there is no reason to hold back to maintain payroll "flexibility" now or into he future. Just my opinion.
Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting the Giants need to saddle up with a bunch of contracts that get all the way up to the CBT, not just this year but for 5-7 years down the road, but you have to remember their current payroll obligations are not static going forward either. $140 M is a full $70 M under that target. On top of that, there is at least another $18 M coming off the books after 2010 and another close to $70 M coming off after 2021 and yet another $13 M after 2022. I mean, how much payroll flexibility is enough? Working off the CBT as the "cap", my target for 2020 would be more in the range of $180 M which still gives them $30 M of payroll freedom this year, close to $50 for 2021 and almost unlimited amounts for 2022.
Not that they should spend money just to meet a minimum target, but if there is a player(s) who can help this team now and for 3-5 years into the future, there is no reason to hold back to maintain payroll "flexibility" now or into he future. Just my opinion.
Wednesday, December 4, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Pitchers Fly Off Shelves
Each Hot Stove season has it's own character and rhythm. Last year it seemed like forever before the first major signing took place and several big names remained on the market into February and even beyond. This year the pace has picked up a lot earlier with pitchers leading the way. The biggest signing today was Zack Wheeler going to the Phillies on a 5 year/$118 M contract. That's a long contract for a lot of money for a pitcher with a pretty extensive injury history. On the other hand, after missing all of 2015 and 2016 and only pitching 86 innings in 2017, the Giants former first round draft pick has turned in two solid seasons of 182 and 195 IP with sub-4.00 ERA's. As long as he stays healthy, Wheeler should be a solid addition to the Phillies rotation.
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Veteran Cole Hamels signed a 1 year/$18 M contract with the Braves. Hamels is 36 years old and not the dominating pitcher he once was, but recorded a 3.81 ERA in 141.2 IP last season for the Cubs. Hamels was reportedly offered 2-year deals but went against the grain and preferred to go 1 year at a time. Also interestingly, the Giants were rumored to be in on him and actually in serious contention to sign him until the end.
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The Zack Wheeler contract may have set the market for Madison Bumgarner who seems to be in demand by several teams and also seems virtually assured of landing at least a $100 M deal. There is a report out there that he wants to stay with the Giants but the Giants have already moved on, which is certainly the sense you get from the whole Giants vibe right now. If I was the Giants GM, would I go for a 5 year/$100 M deal for Bumgarner? That's $20 M AAV. Yes, I would do that and double down by trying to add Gerrit Cole too!
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The Angels traded 4 minor league pitchers for RHP Dylan Bundy. Bundy has settled into a solid innings-eating role and his numbers should benefit from moving out of Camden Yards and the AL East. He is arbitration eligible this year and next before free agency.
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The Giants hired former MLB pitcher Brian Bannister to be Director of Pitching. Bannister has been the Red Sox Vice President of Pitching Development for the past several years, but got let go in a reorganization. If I remember correctly, Bannister was one of the early advocates for incorporating analytics into his own approach to pitching during his playing career. He is the son of former MLB LHP Floyd Bannister. Brian was born in Scottsdale, Arizona and pitched college ball at USC, but lives in the Bay Area.
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Veteran Cole Hamels signed a 1 year/$18 M contract with the Braves. Hamels is 36 years old and not the dominating pitcher he once was, but recorded a 3.81 ERA in 141.2 IP last season for the Cubs. Hamels was reportedly offered 2-year deals but went against the grain and preferred to go 1 year at a time. Also interestingly, the Giants were rumored to be in on him and actually in serious contention to sign him until the end.
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The Zack Wheeler contract may have set the market for Madison Bumgarner who seems to be in demand by several teams and also seems virtually assured of landing at least a $100 M deal. There is a report out there that he wants to stay with the Giants but the Giants have already moved on, which is certainly the sense you get from the whole Giants vibe right now. If I was the Giants GM, would I go for a 5 year/$100 M deal for Bumgarner? That's $20 M AAV. Yes, I would do that and double down by trying to add Gerrit Cole too!
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The Angels traded 4 minor league pitchers for RHP Dylan Bundy. Bundy has settled into a solid innings-eating role and his numbers should benefit from moving out of Camden Yards and the AL East. He is arbitration eligible this year and next before free agency.
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The Giants hired former MLB pitcher Brian Bannister to be Director of Pitching. Bannister has been the Red Sox Vice President of Pitching Development for the past several years, but got let go in a reorganization. If I remember correctly, Bannister was one of the early advocates for incorporating analytics into his own approach to pitching during his playing career. He is the son of former MLB LHP Floyd Bannister. Brian was born in Scottsdale, Arizona and pitched college ball at USC, but lives in the Bay Area.
Scouting the 2020 Draft: JT Ginn
J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St). 6'2", 200 lbs.
2019: 8-4, 3.13, 86.1 IP, 19 BB, 105 K.
Draft eligible sophomore. Did not sign with the Dodgers after being drafted #30 overall in the 2019 draft. Physically mature. Two plus pitches: A mid-90's FB with command and a "wipeout" slider. Ceiling limited due to physical maturity, but may have the highest floor of any draft prospect pitcher we've profiled so far due to command and strength of college competition. This type of pitcher tends to rise on boards late in the draft cycle as teams retreat to safety in the first round. Draft eligible sophs obviously have more signing leverage so drafting teams will have to plan on full slot bonus.
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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:
1. Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2. Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St.).
3. Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5. Zac Veen OF, HS.
6. Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
8. J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
9. Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
10. Mick Abel RHP, HS.
11. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
2019: 8-4, 3.13, 86.1 IP, 19 BB, 105 K.
Draft eligible sophomore. Did not sign with the Dodgers after being drafted #30 overall in the 2019 draft. Physically mature. Two plus pitches: A mid-90's FB with command and a "wipeout" slider. Ceiling limited due to physical maturity, but may have the highest floor of any draft prospect pitcher we've profiled so far due to command and strength of college competition. This type of pitcher tends to rise on boards late in the draft cycle as teams retreat to safety in the first round. Draft eligible sophs obviously have more signing leverage so drafting teams will have to plan on full slot bonus.
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DrB's Updated 2020 Draft Board:
1. Austin Martin SS, College(Vanderbilt).
2. Spencer Torkelson 1B, College(Arizona St.).
3. Emerson Hancock RHP, College(Georgia).
4. Cole Wilcox RHP, College(Georgia).
5. Zac Veen OF, HS.
6. Robert Hassell OF, HS.
7. Pete Crow-Armstrong OF, HS.
8. J.T. Ginn RHP, College(Mississippi St).
9. Jared Kelley RHP, HS.
10. Mick Abel RHP, HS.
11. Austin Hendrick OF, HS.
Tuesday, December 3, 2019
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Free Agent Pitcher
So, the good news is the Giants signed a free agent left-handed pitcher today. The bad news is he was only a free agent because they did not tender him a contract yesterday. How's that? Some of us were scratching our heads yesterday wondering why Farhan non-tendered LHP Tyler Anderson after claiming him off waivers from the Rockies. I'm sure if you dig deep enough into the intricacies of waiver claims and the arbitration process there is a perfectly logical explanation for the entire sequence of events. The simple answer is apparently Anderson was willing to agree to a contract presumably for a significantly lower amount than the $2.1 MLBTR projected him to get in arbitration. Why this was not announced until after the non-tender became official, we may never know. I'll guess negotiations came down to the wire and they just did not have time to work out the details before the tender deadline.
I wrote something up on Tyler Anderson after the Giants picked him off waivers. He's a guy who I think has a decent shot at a bounceback season, especially given a change of scenery from Coors Field to Oracle Park. In addition, he's coming off surgery on a knee that was bothering him last year. That is worth the risk of a very small MLB guaranteed salary. If it doesn't work out, the monetary risk is minimal. If it does, I could see Anderson becoming a solid #4 SP in the rotation or a lefty reliever capable of going multiple innings at a time. If the Giants stay in contention through the season, great. If not, I could see him bringing back a nice prospect a la Drew Pomeranz.
Again, I don't understand all the machinations, but in the end, Farhan got the result I hoped for so we'll give him a thumbs up on this one.
I wrote something up on Tyler Anderson after the Giants picked him off waivers. He's a guy who I think has a decent shot at a bounceback season, especially given a change of scenery from Coors Field to Oracle Park. In addition, he's coming off surgery on a knee that was bothering him last year. That is worth the risk of a very small MLB guaranteed salary. If it doesn't work out, the monetary risk is minimal. If it does, I could see Anderson becoming a solid #4 SP in the rotation or a lefty reliever capable of going multiple innings at a time. If the Giants stay in contention through the season, great. If not, I could see him bringing back a nice prospect a la Drew Pomeranz.
Again, I don't understand all the machinations, but in the end, Farhan got the result I hoped for so we'll give him a thumbs up on this one.
Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign 3, Non-Tender 4
It was Contract Tender Day across baseball today. Is it just me or were there a lot more non-tenders this year than any I can recall? Wow! Almost every team in MLB had failed to tender a contract to at least one player and often to several. The Giants were no exception. Much as I predicted, the Giants either agreed to terms of a contract to avoid arbitration with the player or the player was not tendered a contract making them an instant free agent. The Giants agreed to terms with OF Alex Dickerson, LHP Wandy Peralta and IF Donovan Solano. Dick settled for a reported $925 K which is about $300 K below his MLBTR projected arbitrations award of $1.2 M. Peralta's contract came in right at his projected arbitration value of $805 K. I have not seen a number on what Solano's contract is for. His projected value was $1.2 M. As we all know, Alex Dickerson will give you some left-handed pop when and if he is healthy. Peralta is a hard throwing lefty reliever who has had trouble performing up to his stuff. Solano is coming off a near-career year while filling a reserve IF role in 2019.
Perhaps more interesting than who agreed to contracts are those who did not. This list included CF Kevin Pillar, LHP Tyler Anderson and OF Joey Rickard. The Giants also did not offer a contract to RHP Rico Garcia who is not arbitration eligible. While not exactly shocking, at least two of these non-tenders certainly raises some eyebrows as well as some questions. Nothing Kevin Pillar did in 2019 was significantly different than he has ever done as a player: nice power, nice speed, horrible OBP, flashy D which UZR is not impressed by, hustle, engaging with fans and teammates. Pillar has always been all of those things except he also led the team in several offensive categories and impressed his teammates enough to win the Willie Mac Award after joining the team after the season started. His projected arbitration value was well within his anticipated WAR value, even with the low OBP and stat-unfriendly D. So, the question here is if his OBP and D were such big negatives, why was he the best Farhan could find for CF last season and who is out there who is better this season? Farhan did talk of perhaps moving some younger, faster corner OF's like YtY and Jaylin Davis to CF, while acquiring a bat with more pop for one of the corner OF positions. OK, I'm on board with that notion and I'm going to hold Farhan to it. We'll be checking back on that one at the end of the Hot Stove season.
The other eyebrow raiser, at least for me, was non-tendering Tyler Anderson on the heels of claiming him off waivers from the Rockies. Anderson is a guy, much like Drew Pomeranz last year, who appears to have a decent chance of mounting a bounceback season which would create all kind of interesting option as the trade deadline approached. I'll guess the Giants tried to get him to accept a deal at well below his projected $2.1 M and he refused. I'm going to take a wild guess here and say hell will freeze over before the Giants tender an arbitration contract to a player in the Farhan era. Brian Sabean was well known for trying to avoid arbitration. I'm thinking Farhan takes it a step further and is so allergic to arbitration he carries an EpiPen at all times, just in case. So the waiver claim on Tyler Anderson was for the chance to offer him a lowball contract to see if he would bite and nothing more. Churn on!
Joey Rickard is an interesting OF platoon bat, but definitely not someone you would take even the slightest risk with by offering arbitration. I never quite figured out what Rico Garcia was doing on the 40 man roster in the first place, so no big surprise there. I'm sure there is Rule 5 eligible player Farhan has his eye on for that roster spot.
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Remember Jonathan Villar? I have to confess I am not sure exactly how these things work, but apparently the Marlins placed a claim on him and then worked a trade with the Orioles. I think the Marlins were first in line to place a claim due to their poor record which means the Giants were out of the loop. The Marlins give up a LHP I've never heard of. They are still on the hook for arbitration which MLBTR estimates at $10 M but could go higher with Villar coming off a 4-WAR season unless they work out a deal pre-hearing.
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The Reds came to terms with FA 3B Mike Moustakas for 4 years/$64 M. The lefty hitting Moustakas has been a steady source of power averaging 24 HR's/600 PA over the course of his career. He is entering his age 31 season.
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The Padres stayed active in Hot Stove transactions by trading for Jurickson Profar who was in line to be non-tendered by the A's. The Padres give up C Austin Allen and a PTBNL. The Padres then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year/$5.7 M contract with Profar. Profar is a versatile infielder who looked like he was finally on the verge of a breakout before a disappointing 2019, both offensively and defensively. The Padres are willing to gamble the $5.7 M and a bit of catching depth to see if he can bounce back.
Perhaps more interesting than who agreed to contracts are those who did not. This list included CF Kevin Pillar, LHP Tyler Anderson and OF Joey Rickard. The Giants also did not offer a contract to RHP Rico Garcia who is not arbitration eligible. While not exactly shocking, at least two of these non-tenders certainly raises some eyebrows as well as some questions. Nothing Kevin Pillar did in 2019 was significantly different than he has ever done as a player: nice power, nice speed, horrible OBP, flashy D which UZR is not impressed by, hustle, engaging with fans and teammates. Pillar has always been all of those things except he also led the team in several offensive categories and impressed his teammates enough to win the Willie Mac Award after joining the team after the season started. His projected arbitration value was well within his anticipated WAR value, even with the low OBP and stat-unfriendly D. So, the question here is if his OBP and D were such big negatives, why was he the best Farhan could find for CF last season and who is out there who is better this season? Farhan did talk of perhaps moving some younger, faster corner OF's like YtY and Jaylin Davis to CF, while acquiring a bat with more pop for one of the corner OF positions. OK, I'm on board with that notion and I'm going to hold Farhan to it. We'll be checking back on that one at the end of the Hot Stove season.
The other eyebrow raiser, at least for me, was non-tendering Tyler Anderson on the heels of claiming him off waivers from the Rockies. Anderson is a guy, much like Drew Pomeranz last year, who appears to have a decent chance of mounting a bounceback season which would create all kind of interesting option as the trade deadline approached. I'll guess the Giants tried to get him to accept a deal at well below his projected $2.1 M and he refused. I'm going to take a wild guess here and say hell will freeze over before the Giants tender an arbitration contract to a player in the Farhan era. Brian Sabean was well known for trying to avoid arbitration. I'm thinking Farhan takes it a step further and is so allergic to arbitration he carries an EpiPen at all times, just in case. So the waiver claim on Tyler Anderson was for the chance to offer him a lowball contract to see if he would bite and nothing more. Churn on!
Joey Rickard is an interesting OF platoon bat, but definitely not someone you would take even the slightest risk with by offering arbitration. I never quite figured out what Rico Garcia was doing on the 40 man roster in the first place, so no big surprise there. I'm sure there is Rule 5 eligible player Farhan has his eye on for that roster spot.
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Remember Jonathan Villar? I have to confess I am not sure exactly how these things work, but apparently the Marlins placed a claim on him and then worked a trade with the Orioles. I think the Marlins were first in line to place a claim due to their poor record which means the Giants were out of the loop. The Marlins give up a LHP I've never heard of. They are still on the hook for arbitration which MLBTR estimates at $10 M but could go higher with Villar coming off a 4-WAR season unless they work out a deal pre-hearing.
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The Reds came to terms with FA 3B Mike Moustakas for 4 years/$64 M. The lefty hitting Moustakas has been a steady source of power averaging 24 HR's/600 PA over the course of his career. He is entering his age 31 season.
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The Padres stayed active in Hot Stove transactions by trading for Jurickson Profar who was in line to be non-tendered by the A's. The Padres give up C Austin Allen and a PTBNL. The Padres then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a 1 year/$5.7 M contract with Profar. Profar is a versatile infielder who looked like he was finally on the verge of a breakout before a disappointing 2019, both offensively and defensively. The Padres are willing to gamble the $5.7 M and a bit of catching depth to see if he can bounce back.
Monday, December 2, 2019
Thoughts On Rebuilding
Hey team! Sorry for so few posts lately. A respiratory infection kicked my butt last week. Between that and a total lack of Giants activity in the Hot Stove league gave me a bad case of writer's block. I am not sure if these ideas are fleshed out enough to write a coherent article, but I'll take a stab at it. Let's start with a theorem: The Giants are Rebuilding. I am not sure if this is a universally accepted theorem amongst the Giants fanbase, but it's true. It's not true because Farhan is the GM. It is not only true because the team is aging and they have a lot of under-performing contracts, although that is certainly part of it. They are rebuilding because that's how Bobby Evans designed the contracts. Here is a list of Giants contracts set to expire over the next 2 years: Jeff Samardzija, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Johnny Cueto. Add in Evan Longoria a year later. Yes, the old core is going to be history and a lot sooner than it seems. Say what you will about Evans and his contracts, but he actually did a good job of staggering them so there would be a steady stream coming off the books to make room for future contracts. Farhan's Melancon trade helped that process significantly, but the Giants have never been as in dire CBT hell as has been made out in a lot of corners.
There is a conventional wisdom out there that the Giants cannot afford any more big, longterm contracts until the current core has run it's course. There is also a conventional wisdom, starting to break down but still out there, that the farm system is barren and needs several years of high draft picks to turn it around. Both of these conventional wisdoms are false narratives. As we have detailed in previous posts, the Giants could add close to $90 M of payroll for 2020 and not pay a penny of CBT tax. Beyond that, you have the above-mentioned contracts rolling off the books and the Giants are most definitely not in a payroll box by any stretch. As for the farm system, sure, high draft picks are one way to acquire high-end talent, but fortunately Evans took care of that before he was axed too as the Farm system has high end talent which could come online as early as this year in the form of Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos with more exciting talent not that far behind in the system.
Which brings us to how this Hot Stove season can jump start the rebuild. There are definitely some types of transactions the Giants should not be making this offseason. I think we can all agree they should not trade prospects for veterans. No prospects for Andrew McCutchen. Sure, if you can get a Kevin Pillar type veteran for 3 guys who are about to be released anyway, go for it, but no trading of legitimate prospects for short term veteran help. No! They probably should also not sign a bunch of mid-level 3-4 year FA contracts that quickly balloon the payroll and might not contribute to the next seriously contending Giants team.
On the other hand, there are trades and FA signings that can be both beneficial in the short term and be part of a long term rebuild. Flip trades where you make a low cost FA signing, hope for a bounceback season then flip the player for a big league ready prospect is exciting to see now and is a great way to add future pieces. Drew Pomeranz for Mauricio Dubon is a great example. Farhan's acquisition of Tyler Anderson is possibly a prelude to another such trade(assuming Anderson is not non-tendered today). If you can unload a big under-performing contract like Farhan did with Mark Melancon last year, that also frees up more money sooner for invest in longterm pieces. Farhan even managed to get a decent prospect back in Tristan Beck.
One more way to jumpstart the rebuild is to sign a "franchise" free agent or two to longterm contracts. Just because a player is expensive and good now, does not preclude him from being part of the next championship team. Farhan made a late move to make just such a deal last year in his pursuit of Bryce Harper. It is true that there are generally only one or two of these "franchise" players available each FA cycle. I was not and am not convinced Bryce Harper is "that guy", but he fits the profile: Star player, still in prime of career, not afraid to be the focal point, years of productivity ahead.
There are two players, possibly three, who fit this profile available this offseason: Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and possibly Madison Bumgarner. Of those three, Gerrit Cole best fits the description. I put him in the same class as Max Scherzer, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling. Guys who are worth betting the farm on and who deliver on the bet. First of all, the Giants most certainly can afford Gerrit Cole, now and in the future. Like Scherzer, Cole is build to last. Like Scherzer was, he's not only still in the prime of his career, he may still be getting better! We saw once again this postseason that the surest way to a WS championship is having at least 2 ace SP's. Everything else is window dressing! The Giants championship run was Cainer, Timmy and Bum. You can add in Buster but everybody else were role players.
So, the thesis of this post is the Giants and Farhan need to go hard after Gerrit Cole. Not only does he make them competitive now, he is very likely to still be in his prime for at least 2-3 more seasons and possibly for the entire long term contract. If Farhan can't add the pieces for a true championship contender within 3 years, why is he the GM?
I would add that the Giants can easily afford to sign both Cole and Bumgarner which would give them a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation now with room to add in future seasons. They should seriously consider a strategy of signing both players this Hot Stove season while continuing to work The Churn and prospect development for the longterm rebuild.
There is a conventional wisdom out there that the Giants cannot afford any more big, longterm contracts until the current core has run it's course. There is also a conventional wisdom, starting to break down but still out there, that the farm system is barren and needs several years of high draft picks to turn it around. Both of these conventional wisdoms are false narratives. As we have detailed in previous posts, the Giants could add close to $90 M of payroll for 2020 and not pay a penny of CBT tax. Beyond that, you have the above-mentioned contracts rolling off the books and the Giants are most definitely not in a payroll box by any stretch. As for the farm system, sure, high draft picks are one way to acquire high-end talent, but fortunately Evans took care of that before he was axed too as the Farm system has high end talent which could come online as early as this year in the form of Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos with more exciting talent not that far behind in the system.
Which brings us to how this Hot Stove season can jump start the rebuild. There are definitely some types of transactions the Giants should not be making this offseason. I think we can all agree they should not trade prospects for veterans. No prospects for Andrew McCutchen. Sure, if you can get a Kevin Pillar type veteran for 3 guys who are about to be released anyway, go for it, but no trading of legitimate prospects for short term veteran help. No! They probably should also not sign a bunch of mid-level 3-4 year FA contracts that quickly balloon the payroll and might not contribute to the next seriously contending Giants team.
On the other hand, there are trades and FA signings that can be both beneficial in the short term and be part of a long term rebuild. Flip trades where you make a low cost FA signing, hope for a bounceback season then flip the player for a big league ready prospect is exciting to see now and is a great way to add future pieces. Drew Pomeranz for Mauricio Dubon is a great example. Farhan's acquisition of Tyler Anderson is possibly a prelude to another such trade(assuming Anderson is not non-tendered today). If you can unload a big under-performing contract like Farhan did with Mark Melancon last year, that also frees up more money sooner for invest in longterm pieces. Farhan even managed to get a decent prospect back in Tristan Beck.
One more way to jumpstart the rebuild is to sign a "franchise" free agent or two to longterm contracts. Just because a player is expensive and good now, does not preclude him from being part of the next championship team. Farhan made a late move to make just such a deal last year in his pursuit of Bryce Harper. It is true that there are generally only one or two of these "franchise" players available each FA cycle. I was not and am not convinced Bryce Harper is "that guy", but he fits the profile: Star player, still in prime of career, not afraid to be the focal point, years of productivity ahead.
There are two players, possibly three, who fit this profile available this offseason: Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and possibly Madison Bumgarner. Of those three, Gerrit Cole best fits the description. I put him in the same class as Max Scherzer, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling. Guys who are worth betting the farm on and who deliver on the bet. First of all, the Giants most certainly can afford Gerrit Cole, now and in the future. Like Scherzer, Cole is build to last. Like Scherzer was, he's not only still in the prime of his career, he may still be getting better! We saw once again this postseason that the surest way to a WS championship is having at least 2 ace SP's. Everything else is window dressing! The Giants championship run was Cainer, Timmy and Bum. You can add in Buster but everybody else were role players.
So, the thesis of this post is the Giants and Farhan need to go hard after Gerrit Cole. Not only does he make them competitive now, he is very likely to still be in his prime for at least 2-3 more seasons and possibly for the entire long term contract. If Farhan can't add the pieces for a true championship contender within 3 years, why is he the GM?
I would add that the Giants can easily afford to sign both Cole and Bumgarner which would give them a great 1-2 at the top of the rotation now with room to add in future seasons. They should seriously consider a strategy of signing both players this Hot Stove season while continuing to work The Churn and prospect development for the longterm rebuild.
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