Another big decision coming right up for Farhan and the Giants braintrust is whether to make a QO to Closer Will Smith. The QO actually went down this year, I think for the first time and is right around $18 M. I looked up the FA contracts signed by Closers over the past 2 years. The closest in AAV is Wade Davis who signed for 3 years with an AAV of $17.3 M. At the time, Davis was considered an elite closer, although cracks were starting to show. If the Rockies had a do-over, I don't think they would sign that contract again but mainly for the length. Other recent AAV's for FA Closers are more in the $10-$13 M range.
Will Smith was arguably the best Closer in baseball last year, but does not have a long track record in the role. Without a QO, his value on the open market would likely fall somewhere around 3/$39 M. A QO is likely to suppress his market value significantly which would make 1/$18 M look quite attractive to him. So, Farhan has to figure if he makes the QO, there is a fairly high probability Smith will accept. I'm guessing Farhan does not want to pay that much for a Closer and probably thinks he can churn one out who will get the job done for a very small fraction of the cost.
Putting all that together, here's my outcome probabilities(rough estimates):
No QO- 60%
QO/Accepted- 20%
QO/Rejected- 20%.
Market alternatives include Cody Allen, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson, Jeremy Jeffress, Brandon Kintzler and Arodys Vizcaino.
BTW, as a commenter just pointed out in the previous post, teams signing a QO FA no longer lose their top pick but losing second picks was enough to suppress the markets for Dallas Keuchal and Craig Kimbrel last year.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Saturday, October 26, 2019
Armchair GM: Should the Giants Re-Sign Madison Bumgarner?
With the World Series heading into its middle or final stages(BTW, baseball has to do something about the pace of games. Last night's game had zero reason to not move right along and it clocked in a well over 4 hours. Ugh!), the moment of truth for the Giants and Madison Bumgarner fast approaches. There are multiple factors at play here which will undoubtedly lead to a chess match between Farhan Zaidi along with Giants management and Madison Bumgarner and his representatives.
I believe I was one of the first to write in the Giants blogosphere that they should trade Bumgarner and get prospect talent back in a preemptive rebuild rather than waiting to sign another big, longterm contract with an aging pitcher with ton of mileage on his arm. Circumstances evolved to cause me to re-evaluate my position including 1. It's now too late to get talent back in return. 2. Bummy had a modest bounceback last year after two years of missing time with injuries. Fortunately, the second of those injuries, the fractured hand, should not be a longterm problem and the infamous shoulder separation seems to have fully resolved. At this point it looks like a decent bet he has a few more seasons left in the tank. 3. While 2 years ago, it appeared he would be wildly overvalued as a free agent, the two injuries, industry trends and the QO may have suppressed his market value to the point of being seriously undervalued.
There are plenty of reasons why both sides want to gauge his market value before agreeing to a new contract so there is close to zero chance he won't reach free agent status. The no brainer is the Giants making a Qualifying Offer. At this point, a 1 year contract for $18 M for a pitcher of his caliber is a sweet deal for the team. The chances of a QO are close to 100%. Now, it's possible Bumgarner and his advisors have estimated his market in the context of a QO, looked at what happened to Dallas Keuchal last year and Hyun-Jin Ryu this year, and he's decided to bet on himself. In this scenario he would accept the QO, hope he stays healthy all season with stats at least as strong as 2019 and be free of the QO weight next offseason. I'll say there is maybe a 10% chance of this outcome.
This brings us to the 90% chance he turns down the QO and goes on the market. Let me pause right here to say the Giants can easily afford whatever Bummy's market turns out to be, now and into the future. Even if we stipulate an absolute salary cap at the CBT threshold, with Mark Melancon's contract off the books they are about $90 M under for 2020. Shark's contract comes off next year, the Brandons, Buster and Johnny Cueto come off after 2021 and Longo comes off after 2022 except for some relatively small buyouts, but books are clear after that. The narrative that the Giants are hamstrung by a bunch of albatross contracts or that they cannot field a competitive team until said albatross contracts have run their course has been grossly blown out of proportion. Not only can the Giants easily afford to sign a free agent contract with Madison Bumgarner, but they can sign him plus Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and still have payroll flexibility going forward!
There are a whole host of business reasons why re-signing Madison Bumgarner is beneficial for the Giants which we won't detail here. Unless his market unexpectedly goes crazy and he commands a Scherzeresque contract, the baseball factors have caught up to the business factors. A 3-5 year contract for $70-100 M would make a lot of sense for both Bummy and the Giants although if that happens, it can't be their only big move of the offseason. Farhan has to stop thinking he's still working for the A's or trying to help the Dodgers get under the CBT threshold and spend money on more help for MadBum.
I believe I was one of the first to write in the Giants blogosphere that they should trade Bumgarner and get prospect talent back in a preemptive rebuild rather than waiting to sign another big, longterm contract with an aging pitcher with ton of mileage on his arm. Circumstances evolved to cause me to re-evaluate my position including 1. It's now too late to get talent back in return. 2. Bummy had a modest bounceback last year after two years of missing time with injuries. Fortunately, the second of those injuries, the fractured hand, should not be a longterm problem and the infamous shoulder separation seems to have fully resolved. At this point it looks like a decent bet he has a few more seasons left in the tank. 3. While 2 years ago, it appeared he would be wildly overvalued as a free agent, the two injuries, industry trends and the QO may have suppressed his market value to the point of being seriously undervalued.
There are plenty of reasons why both sides want to gauge his market value before agreeing to a new contract so there is close to zero chance he won't reach free agent status. The no brainer is the Giants making a Qualifying Offer. At this point, a 1 year contract for $18 M for a pitcher of his caliber is a sweet deal for the team. The chances of a QO are close to 100%. Now, it's possible Bumgarner and his advisors have estimated his market in the context of a QO, looked at what happened to Dallas Keuchal last year and Hyun-Jin Ryu this year, and he's decided to bet on himself. In this scenario he would accept the QO, hope he stays healthy all season with stats at least as strong as 2019 and be free of the QO weight next offseason. I'll say there is maybe a 10% chance of this outcome.
This brings us to the 90% chance he turns down the QO and goes on the market. Let me pause right here to say the Giants can easily afford whatever Bummy's market turns out to be, now and into the future. Even if we stipulate an absolute salary cap at the CBT threshold, with Mark Melancon's contract off the books they are about $90 M under for 2020. Shark's contract comes off next year, the Brandons, Buster and Johnny Cueto come off after 2021 and Longo comes off after 2022 except for some relatively small buyouts, but books are clear after that. The narrative that the Giants are hamstrung by a bunch of albatross contracts or that they cannot field a competitive team until said albatross contracts have run their course has been grossly blown out of proportion. Not only can the Giants easily afford to sign a free agent contract with Madison Bumgarner, but they can sign him plus Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon and still have payroll flexibility going forward!
There are a whole host of business reasons why re-signing Madison Bumgarner is beneficial for the Giants which we won't detail here. Unless his market unexpectedly goes crazy and he commands a Scherzeresque contract, the baseball factors have caught up to the business factors. A 3-5 year contract for $70-100 M would make a lot of sense for both Bummy and the Giants although if that happens, it can't be their only big move of the offseason. Farhan has to stop thinking he's still working for the A's or trying to help the Dodgers get under the CBT threshold and spend money on more help for MadBum.
Giants Depth Charts: Closer
We'll finish up with Closer. Other relief roles are just too fluid and sprawling to really do any kind of depth chart so we won't go there. Will Smith is a free agent. Current in-house options to replace him including Shaun Anderson, Jandel Gustave, Enderson Franco, Kyle Barraclough, Trevor Gott and Melvin Adon don't exactly inspire confidence. Much like Madison Bumgarner's situation, it looks like the Giants will either have to find a way to re-sign Will Smith or bring in someone else from outside the organization to fill the role if they want to field a competitive team.
AAA:
Sam Wolff
Tyler Cyr
Chase Johnson
The best Closers are often former SP's who have a SP repertoire of pitches and are able to gain velocity in shorter appearances. On that theory, Chase Johnson might be the best bet here. He closed in college.
AA
Raffi Vizcaino
Rodolfo Martinez
Dylan Davis
Vizcaino fits the former SP profile. Martinez has elite velocity but has never been able to stay healthy. Davis, of course, is a converted OF who could surprise in a RP role.
A+:
Camilo Doval
Jesus Tona
Frank Rubio
Patrick Ruotolo
Solomon Bates
Doval has elite velocity and is working his way up the organizational ladder. Tona is a converted catcher who has thrived in Closer roles. Rubio has a funky delivery but not much velocity. He's likely more of a setup guy. We'll see what Patrick Ruotolo does in 2020 after missing much of 2019. I included Bates because he has the physicality you look for a in a Closer.
A:
Norwith Gudino
Gregory Santos
I'm double listing Gudino and Santos on the SP and Closer depth charts. They are currently being used as SP's but both look like candidates to move to the bullpen by the time they are ready for the majors.
Short Season:
Garrett Cave
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro
Garrett Cave is a hard thrower with control/command issues. Ditto Berroa who is listed on the SP depth chart too. Castro seems like a candidate to move to the bullpen at higher levels. At these levels, you just look for guys who throw hard.
Rookie(AZL)/DSL:
Not seeing much to get excited about amongst pitchers on these rosters.
AAA:
Sam Wolff
Tyler Cyr
Chase Johnson
The best Closers are often former SP's who have a SP repertoire of pitches and are able to gain velocity in shorter appearances. On that theory, Chase Johnson might be the best bet here. He closed in college.
AA
Raffi Vizcaino
Rodolfo Martinez
Dylan Davis
Vizcaino fits the former SP profile. Martinez has elite velocity but has never been able to stay healthy. Davis, of course, is a converted OF who could surprise in a RP role.
A+:
Camilo Doval
Jesus Tona
Frank Rubio
Patrick Ruotolo
Solomon Bates
Doval has elite velocity and is working his way up the organizational ladder. Tona is a converted catcher who has thrived in Closer roles. Rubio has a funky delivery but not much velocity. He's likely more of a setup guy. We'll see what Patrick Ruotolo does in 2020 after missing much of 2019. I included Bates because he has the physicality you look for a in a Closer.
A:
Norwith Gudino
Gregory Santos
I'm double listing Gudino and Santos on the SP and Closer depth charts. They are currently being used as SP's but both look like candidates to move to the bullpen by the time they are ready for the majors.
Short Season:
Garrett Cave
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro
Garrett Cave is a hard thrower with control/command issues. Ditto Berroa who is listed on the SP depth chart too. Castro seems like a candidate to move to the bullpen at higher levels. At these levels, you just look for guys who throw hard.
Rookie(AZL)/DSL:
Not seeing much to get excited about amongst pitchers on these rosters.
Giants Depth Charts: Starting Pitchers
Sorry for the break in posts. I've been crazy busy and had some writer's block. I guess we'll go ahead and finish up the depth charts before branching out into other topics. Starting pitching, which was an overwhelming strength during the run of championships is suddenly very thin. It also feels very strange that Madison Bumgarner, who is a free agent, is not on the depth chart.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Jeff Samardzija
Johnny Cueto
Tyler Beede
Logan Webb
Dereck Rodriguez
I suppose you might count Shaun Anderson, Andrew Suarez, Conner Menez and Burch Smith, but all those guys seem to be more on the reliever track at this point. If the Giants don't re-sign Bummy, their going to have to supplement this rotation with another FA or two or make a trade or two if they want to maintain any semblance of competitiveness in 2020. In other words, their going to have to either pay Bummy or pay someone else.
AAA:
Caleb Baragar
That's it. Just one SP currently listed on the River Cats roster and not a name you expect to see holding down a rotation spot in SF anytime soon. So, help is not on the way!
AA:
Sean Hjelle
Garrett Williams
Hjelle seems promising, but needs to show he's read to dominate higher levels out of spring training. Williams still struggles with control/command.
A+:
Tristan Beck
Jake Wong
Matt Frisbee
Jose Marte
Aaron Phillips
Tristan Beck showed promise after being acquired in the Mark Melancon trade. Jake Wong was a bit disappointing after promotion to SJ. Frisbee was a lower round draft pick who is putting up interesting numbers.
A:
Seth Corry
Norwith Gudino
Blake Rivera
Gregory Santos
Kai-Wei Teng
Keaton Winn
Corry had a breakout season in 2019. Can he keep it going at higher levels? Santos could be a future ace, but needs to stay healthy. Gudino, Rivera, Teng and Winn showed varying degrees of promise in a relatively pitcher-friendly environment.
Short Season
Kervin Castro
Conner Nurse
Caleb Kilian
Jasier Herrera
Bryce Fehmel
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro showed he most in 2019, although I think Kilian might be a sleeper.
Rookie(AZL):
Trevor McDonald
Freddery Paulino
Sonny Vargas
Jesus Gomez
Marco Gonzalez
Juan Sanchez
Nick Morreale
Trevor McDonald got a significant over-slot bonus out of the 11'th round of the 2019 draft. Extremely small pro sample size so far. The DSL graduate lefties struggled a bit in their stateside debuts.
DSL:
None.
Nobody on the DSL Giants pitching staff stood out in 2019 as we saw mostly high scoring games all season.
Overall SP is the thinnest position in the organization, the worst in my memory. The 2019 draft and 2018 international signings did not add much.
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Jeff Samardzija
Johnny Cueto
Tyler Beede
Logan Webb
Dereck Rodriguez
I suppose you might count Shaun Anderson, Andrew Suarez, Conner Menez and Burch Smith, but all those guys seem to be more on the reliever track at this point. If the Giants don't re-sign Bummy, their going to have to supplement this rotation with another FA or two or make a trade or two if they want to maintain any semblance of competitiveness in 2020. In other words, their going to have to either pay Bummy or pay someone else.
AAA:
Caleb Baragar
That's it. Just one SP currently listed on the River Cats roster and not a name you expect to see holding down a rotation spot in SF anytime soon. So, help is not on the way!
AA:
Sean Hjelle
Garrett Williams
Hjelle seems promising, but needs to show he's read to dominate higher levels out of spring training. Williams still struggles with control/command.
A+:
Tristan Beck
Jake Wong
Matt Frisbee
Jose Marte
Aaron Phillips
Tristan Beck showed promise after being acquired in the Mark Melancon trade. Jake Wong was a bit disappointing after promotion to SJ. Frisbee was a lower round draft pick who is putting up interesting numbers.
A:
Seth Corry
Norwith Gudino
Blake Rivera
Gregory Santos
Kai-Wei Teng
Keaton Winn
Corry had a breakout season in 2019. Can he keep it going at higher levels? Santos could be a future ace, but needs to stay healthy. Gudino, Rivera, Teng and Winn showed varying degrees of promise in a relatively pitcher-friendly environment.
Short Season
Kervin Castro
Conner Nurse
Caleb Kilian
Jasier Herrera
Bryce Fehmel
Prelander Berroa
Kervin Castro showed he most in 2019, although I think Kilian might be a sleeper.
Rookie(AZL):
Trevor McDonald
Freddery Paulino
Sonny Vargas
Jesus Gomez
Marco Gonzalez
Juan Sanchez
Nick Morreale
Trevor McDonald got a significant over-slot bonus out of the 11'th round of the 2019 draft. Extremely small pro sample size so far. The DSL graduate lefties struggled a bit in their stateside debuts.
DSL:
None.
Nobody on the DSL Giants pitching staff stood out in 2019 as we saw mostly high scoring games all season.
Overall SP is the thinnest position in the organization, the worst in my memory. The 2019 draft and 2018 international signings did not add much.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
2019 Giants Depth Charts: Right Field
Right field in Oracle Park is a unique defensive challenge as it requires someone with the standard RF arm strength but also enough speed to track down balls in Triples Alley. Remember the catch Grego Blanco made to save Matt Cain's perfect game? I bet you do!
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mike Yastrzemski
Austin Slater
Jaylin Davis
Joe McCarthy
You might want to flip-flop Slater and Davis. The top guy will be the weaker half of a L-R platoon. The strong half is YtY's to lose unless Farhan decides to sell high on him over the winter. Personally, I have mixed feelings about that notion. YtY is great story and kept on producing throughout the season. On the other hand, I can't quite shake the feeling he just had the best season of his career. Is Joe McCarthy a nugget or just more gravel in Farhan's sluice box?
AAA:
None.
AA:
None.
Wouldn't be shocked if Heliot Ramos ended up in RF, though.
A+:
Sandro Fabian
Dalton Combs
Fabian is an interesting prospect. 2020 is a critical year in his development, like close to make-or-break. Dalton Combs is a hitter, but probably more of a 1B type. Definitely won't be covering RF in Oracle Park unless they completely cut off Triples Alley.
A:
Franklin Labour
Mikey Edie
Labour hit for power in 2019. Not sure he has the defensive chops to play RF at higher levels. Mikey Edie has some tools but has never found traction on his career.
Short Season:
Harrison Freed
Any of the CF's on the roster, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario or Jairo Pomares could move over to RF in the future. At this point, Freed is more than just an organizational guy, but not much more.
Rookie(AZL):
George Bell
Bryan Hernandez
A couple of lotto tickets.
DSL:
Robert Gomez
Yohan Polanco
I have no clue about either of these kids!
MLB 40 Man Roster:
Mike Yastrzemski
Austin Slater
Jaylin Davis
Joe McCarthy
You might want to flip-flop Slater and Davis. The top guy will be the weaker half of a L-R platoon. The strong half is YtY's to lose unless Farhan decides to sell high on him over the winter. Personally, I have mixed feelings about that notion. YtY is great story and kept on producing throughout the season. On the other hand, I can't quite shake the feeling he just had the best season of his career. Is Joe McCarthy a nugget or just more gravel in Farhan's sluice box?
AAA:
None.
AA:
None.
Wouldn't be shocked if Heliot Ramos ended up in RF, though.
A+:
Sandro Fabian
Dalton Combs
Fabian is an interesting prospect. 2020 is a critical year in his development, like close to make-or-break. Dalton Combs is a hitter, but probably more of a 1B type. Definitely won't be covering RF in Oracle Park unless they completely cut off Triples Alley.
A:
Franklin Labour
Mikey Edie
Labour hit for power in 2019. Not sure he has the defensive chops to play RF at higher levels. Mikey Edie has some tools but has never found traction on his career.
Short Season:
Harrison Freed
Any of the CF's on the roster, Hunter Bishop, Alexander Canario or Jairo Pomares could move over to RF in the future. At this point, Freed is more than just an organizational guy, but not much more.
Rookie(AZL):
George Bell
Bryan Hernandez
A couple of lotto tickets.
DSL:
Robert Gomez
Yohan Polanco
I have no clue about either of these kids!
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Thoughts on Minor League Reform and Giants Manager Search
We have a request for thoughts on MLB's proposed minor league reform. I agree there is a huge amount of room for improvement in the whole talent acquisition/minor league/player development axis, but as always, the devil is in the details. The proposal, as I understand it, is a radical reorganization of the minor leagues eliminated A- and R+ short season leagues. Camp leagues like the AZL and GCL would remain. The draft would be held later in the summer after the college playoffs are completed. Whole new leagues would be carved out of current ones to create more regionality for organizations. Cities with substandard facilities would be at risk for elimination. The draft would be shortened to around 20 rounds as there would be less need to draft players just to fill rosters. The benefits would be increased regionality, improved facilities and presumably higher pay for players, although jobs would be contracted. There would be a creation of a "Dream League" for undrafted players and minor league free agents which would be some sort of hybrid between affiliated leagues and independent leagues presumably with more support from MLB than indy leagues currently receive.
Comments:
1. The draft needs to be shortened. Some teams already start punting picks at about round 25. Most teams punt picks after round 30.
2. There is a need for more regionality as distances right now are ridiculous and not conducive to player health and development.
3. It is true that many players are currently drafted and signed for no other reason than to fill out rosters, so there is room for consolidation.
4. The trend toward more teaching and applying learned skills and less reliance on simply relying on more innings and more PA's for player development, which I think is a good thing.
5. Most organization currently use AAA more as an extended MLB bench than for player development. It's not clear if reorganization would change this.
Concerns:
1. There are already large gaps in talent and skills between levels which may get worse with reorganization.
2. Elimination of jobs to fund a pay raise seems unnecessary and disingenuous.
3. Converting the Northwest League to full season is going to produce a lot of rainouts in April and May.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants manager search grinds on. Early word was Zaidi planned to interview 7-8 candidates. I think he's already done that but we keep hearing more names added to the list. I honestly don't have much of an opinion about who would make a good manager except this: I think Gabe Kapler would be a big mistake and I am intrigued by Will Venable.
I saw all I need to see of Kapler during a in-game interview in a game against the Giants. After pulling Jake Arrieta from the game, he had what appeared to be a tense discussion in the dugout. When asked about what he said to Arrieta, Kapler responded in a faux drill sergeant voice "I told him he was a warrior and had given everything he had and left it on the field and it was time to let his teammates take if from here" or something to that effect. My reaction was the same as when I heard Bobby Valentine talk on broadcasts, "Sheesh! Can you imagine listening to that every day you go to work?" So, it's a definite no for me on Kapler.
Will Venable might be the perfect mix of new blood and Giants history. He's young, Princeton educated. Has experience in several organizations.....and he's Max and Molly's kid! He has also lived in Japan and the Dominican Republic. I'll assume he is well versed in statistics and how to use them. The next Giants manager is going to be constantly compared to Bruce Bochy which could lead to difficult relationships with the press and fans. What he would have going for him is Kruk and Kuip who absolutely fawned over him every time he came to town with a visiting team. So, I'd be on board with Will Venable. The only downside for me would be how many times I had to listen to Kruk and Kuip go on about "Max and Molly's Kid"!
Comments:
1. The draft needs to be shortened. Some teams already start punting picks at about round 25. Most teams punt picks after round 30.
2. There is a need for more regionality as distances right now are ridiculous and not conducive to player health and development.
3. It is true that many players are currently drafted and signed for no other reason than to fill out rosters, so there is room for consolidation.
4. The trend toward more teaching and applying learned skills and less reliance on simply relying on more innings and more PA's for player development, which I think is a good thing.
5. Most organization currently use AAA more as an extended MLB bench than for player development. It's not clear if reorganization would change this.
Concerns:
1. There are already large gaps in talent and skills between levels which may get worse with reorganization.
2. Elimination of jobs to fund a pay raise seems unnecessary and disingenuous.
3. Converting the Northwest League to full season is going to produce a lot of rainouts in April and May.
*********************************************************************************
The Giants manager search grinds on. Early word was Zaidi planned to interview 7-8 candidates. I think he's already done that but we keep hearing more names added to the list. I honestly don't have much of an opinion about who would make a good manager except this: I think Gabe Kapler would be a big mistake and I am intrigued by Will Venable.
I saw all I need to see of Kapler during a in-game interview in a game against the Giants. After pulling Jake Arrieta from the game, he had what appeared to be a tense discussion in the dugout. When asked about what he said to Arrieta, Kapler responded in a faux drill sergeant voice "I told him he was a warrior and had given everything he had and left it on the field and it was time to let his teammates take if from here" or something to that effect. My reaction was the same as when I heard Bobby Valentine talk on broadcasts, "Sheesh! Can you imagine listening to that every day you go to work?" So, it's a definite no for me on Kapler.
Will Venable might be the perfect mix of new blood and Giants history. He's young, Princeton educated. Has experience in several organizations.....and he's Max and Molly's kid! He has also lived in Japan and the Dominican Republic. I'll assume he is well versed in statistics and how to use them. The next Giants manager is going to be constantly compared to Bruce Bochy which could lead to difficult relationships with the press and fans. What he would have going for him is Kruk and Kuip who absolutely fawned over him every time he came to town with a visiting team. So, I'd be on board with Will Venable. The only downside for me would be how many times I had to listen to Kruk and Kuip go on about "Max and Molly's Kid"!
Sunday, October 20, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Selected Picks From #21
This will be the last installment of the series. Rather than just plow through #21-30, I'll review selected picks we scouted and profiled before the draft just to see how their pro debuts turned out. Again, grades are for fun and not necessarily predictive of future success or failure.
#21 Braves: Braden Shewmake SS. College(Texas A&M).
A: .318/.389/.473, 18 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 201 AB.
AA: .217/.288/.217, 46 AB.
Skipped short season entirely in an aggressive assignment. Solid performance. Hyperaggressive late promotion to AA which did not go so well. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#22 Rays: Greg Jones SS. College(UNC Wilmington).
Short Season: .335/.413/.461, 13 2B, 4 3B, HR, 19 SB, 191 AB.
Strong numbers at an appropriate level although with a lot of K's. Grade A-.
*********************************************************************************
#23 Rockies: Michael Toglia 1B. College(UCLA).
Short Season: .248/.369/.483, 7 2B, 9 HR, 145 AB.
Switch-hitting power hitter with deceptive athleticism. As you can probably tell, I'm not in love with true outcomes approaches at low levels, but that's Moneyball come of age, the new orthodoxy. It's going to be interesting to follow these guys development and see how it turns out. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#24 Indians: Daniel Espino RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 0-1, 1.98, 13.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K.
Short Season: 0-2, 6.30, 10 IP, 5 BB, 18 K.
Unusually aggressive promotion for a HS pitcher. Maintained dominant K rate in SSS against the older competition. Grade A.
*********************************************************************************
#29 A's: Logan Davidson SS. College(Clemson).
Short Season: .239/.345/.332, 7 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 205 AB.
More 3 true outcomes without much power. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#31 Dodgers: Michael Busch 2B. College(UNC).
2 levels: .125/.371/.125, 24 AB.
Pro debut season cut short by injury. Grade Incomplete. I think this guy was a defensively challenged 1B/OF/DH in college so the 2B designation is inneresting. Maybe the Dodgers think they are grooming the next Max Muncy?
*********************************************************************************
#33 D'Backs: Brennan Malone RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 1-2, 5.14, 7 IP, 5 BB, 7 K's.
Pitched one inning of Short Season ball. Grade C(SSS)(BTW, I really liked what I saw in pre-draft videos).
*********************************************************************************
#34 D'Backs: Drey Jameson RHP. College(Ball St).
Short Season: 0-0, 6.17, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 12 K.
Small RHP who put up interesting numbers for Ball St. Very small sample here, but the walks are not encouraging. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#35 Marlins: Kameron Misner OF. College(Missouri).
2 Levels: .270/.388/.362, 9 2B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 163 AB.
Intriguing athleticism. Nice plate discipline but no power. Aggressive early promotion to A ball where he got most of his AB's. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#39 Twins: Matt Wallner OF. College(Southern Mississippi).
2 Levels: .258/.357/.452, 21 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 24 BB, 80 K's, 252 AB.
Twins like to draft toolsy HS kids in round 1 and college sluggers in round 2. Nice power here, but K rate is off the charts in Rookie+ league. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#46 Marlins: Nasim Nunez SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .211/.340/.251, 5 2B, 3B, 28 SB, 175 AB.
Defensive HS SS. Bat was always going to be a project. Intriguing SB's. Grade C.
*********************************************************************************
#49 Reds: Rece Hinds SS. HS.
Rookie+: .000, 8 AB.
Huge power potential. Not sure what happened here. He assigned on June 18 but got only 8 AB's. Injur? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#51 Giants: Logan Wyatt 1B. College(Louisville).
3 Levels: .278/.388/.377, 6 2B, 3 HR, 26 BB, 29 K, 151 AB.
Nice ratios. More power would be nice. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#54 Twins: Matt Cantarino RHP. College(Rice).
2 levels: 1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 8 BB, 31 K.
I might have preferred the Giants draft this college pitcher instead of Wyatt at #51 given how thin pitching is in the organization. Will watch their respective development with interest. Grade B+.
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#55 Angels: Kyren Paris SS. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .300/.462/.400, 10 AB.
Extreme tools. Nice spot in the draft to take a shot. Very SSS. Grade Incomplete.
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#84 Padres: Hudson Head OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .283/.383/.417, 7 2B, 3 3B, HR, 3 SB, 120 AB.
Signed way above slot. Solid rookie ball debut. Grade B.
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#89 Mets: Matthew Allan RHP. HS.
2 Levels: 1-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 14 K.
Another way above slot sign. Has kind of a Matt Cain feel about him. SSS. Grade Incomplete.
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#94 Nationals: Drew Mendoza 3B. College(Florida St).
A: .264/.377/.383, 12 2B, 4 HR, 34 BB, 57 K, 201 AB.
3 true outcomes approach even in college. Aggressive to start him off in A ball, but needs to produce more dingers. Eh, Grade B.
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#122 D'Backs: Glenallen Hill Jr. SS. HS.
Rookie AZL: .206/.289/.363, 4 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 17 BB, 63 K, 160 AB.
A name of interest to Giants fans. You can see the tools in the numbers, but extreme plate discipline and contact issues. Grade C-.
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#128 Rays: Graeme Stinson LHP. College(Duke).
Rookie(GCL): 0-1, 13.50, 0.2 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.
Top ranked college pitcher this time last year. Spectacular stock crash. Injury? Grade Incomplete.
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# 149 Twins: Will Holland SS. College(Auburn).
Rookie+: .192/.299/.376, 7 HR, 8 SB, 125 AB.
Low assignment out of a major college program. Some power and speed but extreme contact issues. Grade D.
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#204 Reds: Eric Yang C. College(UCSB).
Rookie+: .290/.428/.420, 9 2B, 4 HR, 162 AB.
I liked Yang's numbers for UCSB. Thought he was one of the top players in that conference. Placement a bit low and an extreme hitter's league. Grade C+.
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#234 Reds: Quin Cotton OF. College(Grand Canyon).
Rookie+: .283/.376/.409, 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 8 SB, 8 CS, 237 AB.
Stock fell off his junior season. Low placement in an extreme hitter's league. Decent numbers but the speed won't play with 50% CS rate. Grade C+.
#21 Braves: Braden Shewmake SS. College(Texas A&M).
A: .318/.389/.473, 18 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 11 SB, 201 AB.
AA: .217/.288/.217, 46 AB.
Skipped short season entirely in an aggressive assignment. Solid performance. Hyperaggressive late promotion to AA which did not go so well. Grade A.
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#22 Rays: Greg Jones SS. College(UNC Wilmington).
Short Season: .335/.413/.461, 13 2B, 4 3B, HR, 19 SB, 191 AB.
Strong numbers at an appropriate level although with a lot of K's. Grade A-.
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#23 Rockies: Michael Toglia 1B. College(UCLA).
Short Season: .248/.369/.483, 7 2B, 9 HR, 145 AB.
Switch-hitting power hitter with deceptive athleticism. As you can probably tell, I'm not in love with true outcomes approaches at low levels, but that's Moneyball come of age, the new orthodoxy. It's going to be interesting to follow these guys development and see how it turns out. Grade B.
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#24 Indians: Daniel Espino RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 0-1, 1.98, 13.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K.
Short Season: 0-2, 6.30, 10 IP, 5 BB, 18 K.
Unusually aggressive promotion for a HS pitcher. Maintained dominant K rate in SSS against the older competition. Grade A.
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#29 A's: Logan Davidson SS. College(Clemson).
Short Season: .239/.345/.332, 7 2B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 205 AB.
More 3 true outcomes without much power. Grade C.
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#31 Dodgers: Michael Busch 2B. College(UNC).
2 levels: .125/.371/.125, 24 AB.
Pro debut season cut short by injury. Grade Incomplete. I think this guy was a defensively challenged 1B/OF/DH in college so the 2B designation is inneresting. Maybe the Dodgers think they are grooming the next Max Muncy?
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#33 D'Backs: Brennan Malone RHP. HS.
Rookie(AZL): 1-2, 5.14, 7 IP, 5 BB, 7 K's.
Pitched one inning of Short Season ball. Grade C(SSS)(BTW, I really liked what I saw in pre-draft videos).
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#34 D'Backs: Drey Jameson RHP. College(Ball St).
Short Season: 0-0, 6.17, 11.2 IP, 9 BB, 12 K.
Small RHP who put up interesting numbers for Ball St. Very small sample here, but the walks are not encouraging. Grade D.
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#35 Marlins: Kameron Misner OF. College(Missouri).
2 Levels: .270/.388/.362, 9 2B, 2 HR, 11 SB, 163 AB.
Intriguing athleticism. Nice plate discipline but no power. Aggressive early promotion to A ball where he got most of his AB's. Grade B.
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#39 Twins: Matt Wallner OF. College(Southern Mississippi).
2 Levels: .258/.357/.452, 21 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 24 BB, 80 K's, 252 AB.
Twins like to draft toolsy HS kids in round 1 and college sluggers in round 2. Nice power here, but K rate is off the charts in Rookie+ league. Grade C.
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#46 Marlins: Nasim Nunez SS. HS.
Rookie(GCL): .211/.340/.251, 5 2B, 3B, 28 SB, 175 AB.
Defensive HS SS. Bat was always going to be a project. Intriguing SB's. Grade C.
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#49 Reds: Rece Hinds SS. HS.
Rookie+: .000, 8 AB.
Huge power potential. Not sure what happened here. He assigned on June 18 but got only 8 AB's. Injur? Grade Incomplete.
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#51 Giants: Logan Wyatt 1B. College(Louisville).
3 Levels: .278/.388/.377, 6 2B, 3 HR, 26 BB, 29 K, 151 AB.
Nice ratios. More power would be nice. Grade B.
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#54 Twins: Matt Cantarino RHP. College(Rice).
2 levels: 1-1, 1.44, 25 IP, 8 BB, 31 K.
I might have preferred the Giants draft this college pitcher instead of Wyatt at #51 given how thin pitching is in the organization. Will watch their respective development with interest. Grade B+.
*********************************************************************************
#55 Angels: Kyren Paris SS. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .300/.462/.400, 10 AB.
Extreme tools. Nice spot in the draft to take a shot. Very SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#84 Padres: Hudson Head OF. HS.
Rookie(AZL): .283/.383/.417, 7 2B, 3 3B, HR, 3 SB, 120 AB.
Signed way above slot. Solid rookie ball debut. Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#89 Mets: Matthew Allan RHP. HS.
2 Levels: 1-0, 2.61, 10.1 IP, 5 BB, 14 K.
Another way above slot sign. Has kind of a Matt Cain feel about him. SSS. Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
#94 Nationals: Drew Mendoza 3B. College(Florida St).
A: .264/.377/.383, 12 2B, 4 HR, 34 BB, 57 K, 201 AB.
3 true outcomes approach even in college. Aggressive to start him off in A ball, but needs to produce more dingers. Eh, Grade B.
*********************************************************************************
#122 D'Backs: Glenallen Hill Jr. SS. HS.
Rookie AZL: .206/.289/.363, 4 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 19 SB, 17 BB, 63 K, 160 AB.
A name of interest to Giants fans. You can see the tools in the numbers, but extreme plate discipline and contact issues. Grade C-.
*********************************************************************************
#128 Rays: Graeme Stinson LHP. College(Duke).
Rookie(GCL): 0-1, 13.50, 0.2 IP, 0 BB, 1 K.
Top ranked college pitcher this time last year. Spectacular stock crash. Injury? Grade Incomplete.
*********************************************************************************
# 149 Twins: Will Holland SS. College(Auburn).
Rookie+: .192/.299/.376, 7 HR, 8 SB, 125 AB.
Low assignment out of a major college program. Some power and speed but extreme contact issues. Grade D.
*********************************************************************************
#204 Reds: Eric Yang C. College(UCSB).
Rookie+: .290/.428/.420, 9 2B, 4 HR, 162 AB.
I liked Yang's numbers for UCSB. Thought he was one of the top players in that conference. Placement a bit low and an extreme hitter's league. Grade C+.
*********************************************************************************
#234 Reds: Quin Cotton OF. College(Grand Canyon).
Rookie+: .283/.376/.409, 14 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 8 SB, 8 CS, 237 AB.
Stock fell off his junior season. Low placement in an extreme hitter's league. Decent numbers but the speed won't play with 50% CS rate. Grade C+.
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