Hot Stove Review: Brewers

Last season the Brewcrew won 89 games and came within a bullpen meltdown of advancing past the wildcard game instead of the ultimate World Series winners, the Nationals.  In response, the Brewers front office chose to modestly reduce payroll while spreading free agent money over a large number of smaller contracts.  Here is a summary of the moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Yasmani Grandal(C), Mike Moustakis(3B), Drew Pomeranz(LHP), Gio Gonzalez(LHP), Jordan Lyles(RHP), Matt Albers(RHP), Travis Shaw(IF-non-tendered), Jimmy Nelson(RHP- non-tendered), Hernan Perez(IF-non-tendered), Junior Guerra(RHP- non-tendered).

Free Agents Signed:  Avisail Garcia(OF- 2 yr/$20 M), Josh Lindblom(RHP- 3 yr/$9.125 M), Justin Smoak(1B), Brett Anderson(LHP), Eric Sogard(IF), Brock Holt(IF/OF), Jedd Gyorko(IF), Alex Claudio(LHP), David Phelps(RHP), Ryon Healy(IF).

Trades:  Acquired Chad Spanberger(1B) from the Blue Jays for Chase Anderson(RHP), Acquired Omar Narvaez(C) from the Mariners for Adam Hill(RHP) and Competitive Balance Round Draft Pick(B), Acquired Luis Urias(IF) and Eric Lauer(LHP) from the Padres for Trent Grisham(OF) and Zach Davies(RHP), Acquired Mark Mathias(IF) from the Indians for Andrew Melendez(C).

Contract Extensions:  Christian Yelich(OF)- 7 yrs/$188.5 M in addition to pre-existing 2 yrs/$26.5 M), Freddy Peralta(RHP)- 5 yrs/$15.5 M.

Minor League FA Signings:  Logan Morrison(1B/OF), Shelby Miller(RHP), Keon Broxton(OF), Justin Grimm(RHP), Mike Morin(RHP), Jace Peterson(IF), Andres Blanco(IF), Tuffy Gosewich(C).

Summary:  There's a lot to unpack here.  Brewers make a big, longterm commitment to Christian Yelich, so it's hardly a teardown.  The rest, much like the Giants, is a collection of potential undervalued players, breakout candidates and midseason trade pieces. Also like the Giants, this approach will look a whole lot better if rosters increase to 29 or 30 players for a compressed regular season.  As for specific moves I liked here, I would say I am surprised Brock Holt cost as little as he did.  Luis Urias could be their SS of the future.  Ryan Healy has huge power and could have a breakout season if he can stay healthy and field a position.  This team could really use an ace starter which they did not acquire.

Grade C+.

Blast From The Past: Jim Hearn 1951

This is a story that needs to be shared.  In all my years as an obsessed Giants fan, I had never really heard of Jim Hearn before I started researching the 1951 season.  I guess you could call Hearn the Giants #3 starter after Larry Jansen and Sal Maglie and ahead of swingman Dave Koslo.  He was one of several Giants who had career or near-career years in 1951.

Jim Hearn was big for that time at 6'3", 205 lbs.  His first sport was basketball.  He played center on his high school team and played basketball at Georgia Tech.  He played semi-pro baseball in the summers which is where he was discovered by a scout for the Cardinals and signed a pro baseball contract.  He did not start pitching until after he turned pro and had trouble adjusting to the nuances of pitching.  He threw hard but after a promising rookie season in 1947, he struggled with command and pitch-tipping issues.  "Big Jim" was a gentle giant and the Cardinals owner and manager accused him of a lack of dedication and of preferring golf to baseball.  He was released early in the 1950 season and the Giants paid the $10,000 waiver claim.

Giants Manager Leo Durocher immediately confronted Hearn about his dedication to baseball saying if his heart wasn't completely in it, he might as well say so and not waste more time.  Hearn apparently satisfied Leo.  The Giants pitching coaches lowered his arm slot to give his fastball more sink.  This adjustment paid immediate dividends and he broke out, finishing the season with a record of 11-4 and a 2.49 ERA. That success produced an uproar in St Louis about how Manager Eddie Dyer could have misjudged him so badly and ultimately led to Dyer being fired.  For his part, the New York press dubbed him the "Miracle Man."  He was not as dominant in 1951 but the potent Giants offense was enough to propel him to a 17-9 W-L record with an ERA of 3.62.  He also won Game 1 of the playoff against the Dodgers and Game 3 of the World Series against the Yankees.

Jim Hearn pitched 5 more seasons for the Giants but with uneven success due to a series of nagging injuries.  Durocher became frustrated and resurrected his suspicions that Big Jim was thinking more about golf than baseball.  Hearn finished his career pitching mostly in relief in three seasons with the Phillies.  After retirement from baseball, he opened a Golf Center in his hometown of Atlanta which became his lifelong post-baseball career.

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I found most of the biographical information for this post on the SABR website. It also apparently appears in a book entitled The Team That Time Won't Forget:  The 1951 New York Giants, published by SABR.  Check it out!

Hot Stove Review: Cardinals

We move on from the NL West to the NL Central in our Hot Stove Reviews.  The Cardinals have a cohort of aging players but are coming off a 91 win season, so chose to mainly stand pat in the Hot Stove League.  Here are the moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Marcell Ozuna(OF), Michael Wacha(RHP), Tony Cingrani(LHP), Williams Perez(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Adam Wainwright(re-signed), Matt Wieters(re-signed), Kwang Kim(LHP), Brad Miller(IF).

Trades:  Acquired Austin Dean(OF) from Marlins for Diowill Burgos(OF), Acquired Matthew Liberatore(LHP), Edgardo Rodriguez(C) and Future Considerations from the Rays for Jose Martinez(1B) and Randy Arozarena(OF) and Future Considerations.

Avoided Arbitration:  John Gant(RHP).

DFA/Release:  Dominic Leone(RHP).

Minor League Free Agent:  Oscar Hernandez(C).

Summary:  As mentioned, the Cardinals have a lot of age on this team and a shaky OF situation, particularly with the loss of Ozuna.  The addition of Kim bolsters the rotation and could be very good.  A scouting report from spring training games is on Rotographs.  Seems Kim has pretty good command of multiple pitches which help his low 90's FB play up.  Cards also seem to be counting on highly ranked prospect, Dylan Carlson, being ready to step up in OF. They seem to be confident enough in their depth to trade away Martinez and Arozarena for highly rated pitching prospect, Liberatore which was a nice move for the future.  Cardinals have a long history of mid-level prospects stepping up.  Can they keep doing that as the core of Yadier Molina, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter and Waino(plus Dexter Fowler) move into the twilight of their careers?

Grade:  Grade C+.

Blast From The Past: Wes Westrum 1951

Perhaps the most overlooked hero of the Giants legendary 1951 season was a defense-first catcher with a penchant for suffering broken fingers named Wes Westrum.  Westrum's career got off to a slow start serving as a backup catcher for his first three seasons before a breakout campaign in 1950 in which he batted just .243 but with an OBP of .385 and 23 HR's.  Like his Giants team, he got off to a slow start in 1951 due to another broken finger, but once he got healthy he recorded the highest OPS and fWAR of his career.

One of the best kept secrets in baseball lore is that Billy Beane did not invent Moneyball.  It you look at the walk rates and OBP's of the hitters in the 1951 Giants lineup, you will find numbers that put any of Billy Beane's teams to shame.  It's really hard to put into words the beauty of Wes Westrum's 1951 batting line, so here it is for you to stare in wonder at for yourself:

.219/.400/.418, 12 2B, 20 HR, 21.9 BB%, 19.6 K%, fWAR= 4.1, 474 PA.

Like several of his teammates, Wes Westrum's playing career tapered off after that pennant winning season.  He played a lesser role on the 1954 championship team and retired to coaching before the Giants moved west after the 1957 season.  He later went on to manage the Mets and Giants.  The first time I heard of Wes Westrum was as manager of the Mets in the very first MLB game I listened to an the radio.  Of course, I had no idea of his connection to the Giants.  He had a reputation as patient manager who was willing to let young players with high ceilings make their mistakes for the future good of the teams he managed for.

Hot Stove Review: Rockies

The Rockies are coming off a disheartening 91 loss season with a pitching meltdown the main culprit for the howmanyeth time.  Naturally, you might expect Rockies management to get busy in the offseason and try to shore up the pitching.  Well......not so fast!  Instead of, you know, signing free agents and making trades around the Hot Stove, GM Jeff Bridich chose to let his biggest and highest paid star, Nolan Arenado, who by the way does not seem like the troublemaking type, seethe in disgust over Bridich's lack of action to improve the team and wonder about trade rumors involving him!  Nice!  Here's a list of the moves Bridich made this offseason(it's not a long list):

Free Agents Lost:  Yonder Alonso(1B), Rico Garcia(RHP), Tyler Anderson(LHP), DJ Johnson(RHP), Chad Bettis(RHP), Drew Butera(C), Sam Howard(RHP), Pat Valaika(IF), Harrison Musgrave(LHP), Roberto Ramos(1B/OF).

MLB Free Agents Signed:  Jose Mujica(RHP).

Trades:  None.

Extensions:  Trevor Story(SS)- 2 yrs/$27.5 M.  Scott Oberg(RHP)- 3 years/$13 M.

Minor League Free Agents:  Eric Stamets(SS), Daniel Bard(RHP), Ubaldo Jimenez(RHP), Tim Collins(LHP), Elias Diaz(C), Kelby Tomlinson(IF), Chris Owings(IF), Mike Gerber(OF), Tim Melville(RHP), Zac Rosscup(RHP).

Summary:  Hard to imagine a more disheartening and infuriating Hot Stove outcome from a fan's perspective.  Nolan Arenado was obviously none too pleased himself and he's already guaranteed his $ millions.  The fact ownership did not step in and try to mediate between Arenado and Bridich says a lot and points to a much deeper problem than just the guy sitting in the GM chair.

Grade:  F!

RIP Jim Wynn

1967 is the year I started following the Giants and Major League Baseball in earnest.  I was 10 years old and spent my summer vacation listening to Giants games on a portable radio set up on our back porch while throwing balls at a pitchback.  We lived up in the mountains on the east side of the Napa Valley.  It used to get pretty hot in the early afternoons but then a nice westerly breeze would come up and cool everything down.  That's about as idyllic as it gets.  Talk about summertime and the livin's easy!  Evening games were harder to catch because evenings were family time and reception on the old radio tended to fade in and out.

I don't have a specific recollection of listening to a game between the Giants and Astros in Houston on June 15. I probably didn't because it was an evening game.  I do have vague memories of the Giants getting beaten up pretty badly in Houston by an Astros team that seemed to lose to everyone else in the NL.  I recall not understanding why the Astros were so bad because they had a couple of really good young hitters in Jim Wynn and Rusty Staub as well as an aging Eddie Mathews.  They also had a young lefthanded pitcher with a baffling screwball named Mike Cuellar.  This was the fourth game of a midweek set with the Giants losing 2 of of the first 3.  Juan Marichal was a late scratch and Bob Bolin took the mound for the Giants facing Cuellar.  Game details come from an account of the game written up on the SABR website.

The Giants managed an early 1-0 lead until Wynn led off the fourth inning with a drive to left that reached the second deck in the Astrodome, a truly prodigious blast.  In the sixth inning with the score tied 2-2, Wynn sent another Bob Bolin pitch into the bleachers.  Wynn came up again in the 8'th inning, this time facing lefty Bill Henry.  He lined a pitch over the left field wall to become the first player to hit three home runs in the Astrodome.  The Astros went on the win the game 6-2 and Jim Wynn ultimately hit 37 home runs that season to finish second to Hank Aaron for most in the NL.

Jim Wynn stood just 5'9" and weighed maybe 160 lbs but was wiry strong and a true 5-tool athlete.  Some sportswriter coined the nickname "Toy Cannon", a name he hated at first because he thought it called attention to his short stature, but later came to embrace.  He was a patient hitter at the plate who drew a lot of walks but when he did swing, he aired it out and tended to either hit it a long way or strike out.  His three true outcomes style would probably be more appreciated in today's game.  He also played most of his home games in the Astrodome which severely suppressed home runs.  Despite all that, he fashioned a fine career line of .250/.366/.436 with 291 career HR's and 225 SB's. My memories of him tormenting Giants pitchers are accurate as he hit more HR's off Giants pitchers in his career(37) than against any other team.   He was traded to the Dodgers for Claude Osteen before the 1974 season and led the Bad Guys to an NL Pennant, but a World Series loss to the A's.  His career tailed off after that and his MLB career was over by 1977.

Jim Wynn died yesterday at the age of 78.  RIP.

Blast From the Past: Sal Maglie 1951

I've always thought of Sal Maglie as a Dodgers because he was the losing pitcher in Don Larsen's World Series Perfect Game.  The bulk of Maglie's career was with the Giants with 1951 being his best season by a fairly wide margin.  Maglie got a late start on his career.  His first MLB season was at age 28 for the Giants, but then he took a 5 year detour through the Mexican League before Commissioner Happy Chandler lifted the ban on Mexican League jumpers which allowed Maglie to resume his Giants and MLB career in 1950 at age 33.

Maglie had a distinctive and intimidating pitching style.  Like Ryan Vogelsong, who we all know and love, he was a gentleman who became a different person on the mound.  Talk about a game face!  Maglie did not shave on game days and wore a frightful scowl on his face.  He did not try to throw strikes on the inside corner, preferring to come in high and off the plate so the pitch seemed to graze the hitter's chin.  All his other pitches were on the outer half of the plate.  That's how he got the nickname "Sal the Barber" because he seemed to shave hitter's chins with his fastball.

Sal Maglie was a vital cog in the Giants pennant winning drive in 1951 putting together a 23-6 W-L record with a 2.93 ERA.  Again, it is interesting to look up stat lines of star pitchers from the past and see shockingly low K rates.  I wonder if any pitcher could be successful in today's game with that approach?

Like his teammate, Larry Jansen, Maglie developed back problems which sapped his effectiveness in future seasons.  He did go 14-6 with a 3.26 ERA for the World Series Winning Giants in 1954.  He pitched part of a season for the Dodgers in 1956 culminating in his losing the perfecto to Don Larsen when he pitched very respectably himself allowing 2 runs in 5 hits in 7 IP.

After his playing career ended he had two stints as pitching coach for the Boston Red Sox.  While several pitchers, including Bill Monbouquette, Earl Wilson, Dick Radatz and Jim Lonborg credit Maglie with boosting their careers, he lost his job twice due to new managers, Johnny Pesky and Dick Williams, wanting to pick their own pitching coaches.

A few years ago, my family and I visited my brother-in-law who was living in Niagara Falls, NY.  I recall driving past a metal sign marking Sal Maglie's home in Niagara Falls.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: TJ McCants

TJ McCants SS/2B, HS.  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 180 lbs,

5 tool player, although maybe comes up a bit short on arm strength.  Long, lean projectable build with a smooth swing.  6.63 60 yd dash.  82 IF velocity, but PG says he throws well from lower arm angles and gets rid of the ball quickly on the run.  91 MPH exit velocity.  Video reminds me a lot of a larger, even more projectable version of Grant McCray, the Giants 3'rd round pick from last season.  Fangraphs boys say he is "raw as sushi," but think scouting heavy teams will like his projectability.  Remember, FZ loves "tools" and places a lot of faith in player development.

Hot Stove Review: Padres

With a farm system cranking out exciting young players and the signing of an elite free agent, the Padres were expected to make some noise in the NL West in 2019.  Instead, they limped home in last place in the NL West.  AJ Preller has been in the GM chair now long enough for Padres ownership to expect to see some return on their investments.  2020 is likely a make or break year for AJ Preller and his job.  Let's look at the offseason moves Preller made to try to take the Padres to the next level.

Free Agents Lost:  None.

Free Agents Signed:  Drew Pomeranz(LHP-4 years), Pierce Johnson(RHP), Craig Stammen(RHP- re-signed).

Trades:  Acquired Zach Davies(RHP) and Trent Grisham(OF) from the Brewers for Luis Urias(IF) and Eric Lauer(LHP).  Acquired Jurickson Profar(IF) from the A's for Austin Allen(C).  Acquired Tommy Pham(OF) and Jake Cronenworth(SS) from the Rays for Hunter Renfroe(OF) and Xavier Edwards(SS) and a PTBNL.  Acquired Emilio Pagan(RHP) from the Rays for Manuel Margot(OF) and Logan Driscoll(C/OF).

Retired:  Ian Kinsler(2B).

Minor League Free Agents:  Abraham Almonte(OF), Jerad Eickhoff(RHP), Gordon Beckham(IF), Juan Lagares(OF), Daniell Camarena(RHP), Brian Dozier(2B).

Summary:  4 years for Drew Pomeranz is an almost laughable overpay.  Profar is coming off a rough season and needs a big bounceback.  Zach Davies can eat innings, but is not the ace this rotation desperately needs.  Tommy Pham might be a better all-around player than Hunter Renfroe, but does not have Renfroe's freakish power.  A very odd Hot Stove performance for a GM in the hot seat with a team that has expectations of contending.  Oh, and he's still stuck with Wil Myers and his contract.

Grade:  D.

Blast From The Past: Larry Jansen 1951

Larry Jansen was a key member of the 1951 Giants.  It was the last of a run of consecutive seasons as a workhorse starting pitcher.  After kicking around semi-pro and minor league gigs for years, including stints with the San Francisco Seals, Jansen finally broke in with the New York Giants in 1947 at the age of 26.  Pitching success in those days focused on Wins, Losses and ERA.  Jansen was an immediate success going 21-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 248 IP.  His bread and butter pitch was the slider which he used to induce soft contact rather than as a strikeout pitch.  Jansen was a contact pitcher whose highest K/9 was 5.27 in 1950.  He also walked very few.  I assumed he got a log of groundball outs, but per Baseball Reference, his GO/AO was right around 1.  He was known for using few pitches per start and short games, often clocking in at less than 1 hour.

Jansen's other 20-win season came in 1951 going 23-11 with an ERA of 3.04.  Like the team, he got off to a sluggish start to the season.  At one point his record stood at 5-5, but then he reeled off 7 Wins out of 9 Starts.  Although he remained a workhorse down the stretch, he developed back issues which affected his performance which carried over into the World Series which may have been the main reason why the Giants lost the series to the Yankees.

The back problems persisted and led to a steady downward trend in his stat lines through the end of his Giants career in 1954.  He staged a brief comeback with the Reds in 1955.  Larry Jansen was later hired by Alvin Dark to be the Giants pitching coach a position he kept through several managers through 1971.  It was speculated that Jansen fell out of favor with his Giants bosses due to over-emphasizing the slider.  Jansen believed it was because he was critical of the Giants penchant for callup up young SP's before they had learned a third pitch, which he considered essential for MLB SP success.

Larry Jansen was an essential member of the Giants famous 1951 NL Pennant winning team and a very good Giant throughout his long life of 89 years.

Hot Stove Review: Diamondbacks

A funny thing happened on the way to a rebuild for the D'backs.  They skipped the teardown part.  After trading away Zack Grienke and his enormous contract, they re-allocated that money in a series of smaller, yet significant deals to add to a team that surprisingly finished with a winning record of 85-77 last season.  Here is a rundown of their Hot Stove League highlights going into the 2020 season:

Free Agents Lost:  Adam Jones(OF), Wilmer Flores(IF- Team Option declined), Jarrod Dyson(OF), Yoshihisa Hirano(RHP), Alex Avila(C), Abraham Almonte(OF- refused minor league assignment).

Free Agents Added:  Stephen Vogt(C), Junior Guerra(RHP), Madison Bumgarner(LHP), Kole Calhoun(OF), Hector Rondon(RHP).

Arbitration(Non-tendered):  Steven Souza(OF), Caleb Joseph(C), Taijuan Walker(RHP).

Arbitration(Signed):  Nick Ahmed(SS), Archie Bradley(RHP), Robbie Ray(LHP), Andrew Chafin(LHP), Matt Andriese(RHP), Jake Lamb(IF), David Peralta(OF).

Trades:  Acquired Starling Marte(OF) from the Pirates for Liover Peguero(IF), Brennan Malone(RHP), International Bonus Pool money.

Minor League Free Agents:  Edwin Jackson(RHP), Jon Jay(OF), Mark Leiter(RHP), Dalton Pompey(OF), Trayce Thompson(OF).

Suspension:  Domingo Leyba(2B- 80 games).

Summary:  Starting pitching was not thought to be a need going into the Hot Stove League, but Bumgarner steps into the #1 SP role at a fraction of Zack Grienke's cost.  They also get younger and more powerful by replacing Adam Jones with Kole Calhoun.  They found the final puzzle piece in the trade for Starling Marte which allows them to move Ketel Marte back to 2B with Starling taking over in CF.  Stephen Vogt replacing Alex Avila is probably a lateral move, but Vogt pairs nicely with a young Carson Kelly as a catcher tandem.

These moves might leave them a Closer short and they may eventually regret trading Brennan Malone, but this is a team that will likely compete for a Wild Card playoff spot in 2020, if and when.

Grade B+.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Tanner Witt

Tanner Witt 3B/RHP, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'6", 200 lbs.

Tanner Witt is a two-way HS player who has been scouted mainly as a RHP with an eminently projectable body and a mid-90s FB with room for more velocity.  Recently, he's garnered more attention for his hitting while drawing comps to Kris Bryant.  Tall hitters often have long swings and trouble controlling the strike zone, but on video his swing strikes me as being short and quick to the ball with natural power.  On the mound, I see some extraneous elbow action, but otherwise an easy, loose high 3/4 delivery without a lot of visible effort.  I'm guessing MLB teams are going to see him as a pitcher and want him to concentrate on it. Fangraphs has him ranked #45 with an up arrow. They seem to see him more as a hitter.  MLB Pipeline has him at #67 as a RHP.  PG scouts him as a RHP but had good things to say about the bat too.    He's committed to Univ of Texas.  He may choose to preserve his options as a two-way player or hope to vault into the top 5 or 10 as either a hitter or pitcher 3 years down the road.  I don't know if he is related to the Bobby Witts but his dad, Kevin, was a #28 overall pick for the Blue Jays and played parts of 5 seasons for 4 teams and is currently a hitting instructor in the Marlins system.

Thoughts on COVID-19 and the Future of MLB

Lots of speculation from fans regarding how soon we will see MLB games this year, if at all.  I'll offer my thoughts here.  Again, I will try to base my comments on facts as we know them.  Again, any opinions I express are my own and not necessarily those of my practice group or leadership of the medical profession.  As always, I highly recommend maintaining awareness of WHO and CDC as well as state and local guidelines and instructions, and following them as much as possible.

One question that has come up is whether games could be played now in empty stadiums.  The rationale is that younger healthier players are low risk and it is safe for them, or something to that effect.  My answer is that may be a consideration down the road after we get past the current peak and are in a position closer to China or South Korea with very few new cases being reported.  Until then, we need to maintain a complete shutdown.

Fact:  If you plot a graph of Case Fatalities vs age for the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, you see three distinct peaks:  Young children and the elderly are two of the three, but the other one is at approximately age 25-40.  It is believed that the reason for this middle peak is an intense immune response in the lungs causing fatal respiratory failure.  Interestingly, the majority of fatalities in the middle group occurred within a few day of onset while fatalities for older persons tended to occur after about 10 days and are thought to be due to secondary infections.

 Fortunately, we are not seeing a lot of fatalities in young children with COVID-19.  While the average fatality age is around 80, we are hearing and seeing alarming anecdotal reports of large numbers of people age 30-50 with critical illness and death.  I personally know of at least 3 such cases within 3 degrees of separation from my own family.  So while there are differences in risk, everybody is at risk to some degree and there may be a risk peak around age 30-35.

One more point:  I read just today that Hong Kong thought they were out of the woods and relaxed the restrictions and almost immediately had a resurgence.

IMO, MLB will need to remain shuttered until we are close to zero new cases.  At that point, they could consider training and playing without fans and with rigorous screening of players and staff. That is a minimum of 3 months away. If control of the pandemic is maintained, they could gradually open up the games to fans.  I would estimate there will have to be limits for as long as 18 months to 2 years.  If they look at seat placement, they could make limited seating available as long as the seats are at least 6 feet apart with rigorous screening on entry into the park and control of traffic entering and inside the park.  As to whether it's worth that trouble and potential liability, I will have to let MLB management decide that.

I will say this,  as things stand right now, I do not envision myself risking attendance at any sporting event or entertainment venue or large conference or destination vacation for at least the next calendar year and possibly as long as two years.

The one caveat to all of the above is if an effective vaccine is developed and widely distributed, we could all go back to business as usual(until the next pandemic arises, and it will), but that is likely at least 9-12 months away too.

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In answer to comment #2, the one young man who died was 34 years old.  He had asthma(Asthma is quite common in young adults) and a remote history of testicular cancer.  No word on whether he was treated with chemotherapy.  It is possible he had residual immune suppression if he was.  The other 3, who are still alive but requiring ventilation support(one age 32 and 2 in their early 40's), have no known underlying disease.

Underlying disease has a wide range of severities.  Hypertension, obesity and asthma are considered risk factors for fatal outcomes.  Those are all quite common in people age 30-50.

While older people and people with "underlying disease" are higher risk,  deaths are not limited to them and some of the underlying diseases which increase risk are not at all uncommon even in younger people, and are not necessarily ones you would think would make them die from a virus.

Point is, we cannot afford to just throw older people and younger ones with "underlying disease" under the bus while everyone else carries on with normal activities.

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A sliver of good news out of Italy:  Number of new deaths has dropped for 2 consecutive days.  Let's all hope and pray that trend continues.  Italy started their nationwide "lockdown" 2 weeks ago with a prediction of results in about 2 weeks.  Unfortunately, U.S. cases and fatalities are still rising exponentially and we are nowhere close to a true "lockdown" anywhere, let alone nationwide.

Blast from the Past: Alvin Dark and Eddie Stanky 1951

The New York Giants of the 1940's had talented players, but they were mostly slow, lumbering power-hitting types.  Leo Durocher, whose contract was traded from the Dodgers to the Giants in the middle of the 1948 season, wanted more speed and defense.  He got his wish before the 1950 season when the Braves traded their double-play combo, Alvin Dark and Edde Stanky, to the Giants for 4 players including a couple of the aforementioned power hitters.

Alvin Dark was a 5-tool athlete who earned college scholarship offers in both football and basketball.  He was the shortstop, a superior defender with excellent bat-to-ball skills and a bit of power and speed.  Stanky was a short(5'0") scrappy second baseman, also a great defender, who made the most of his hitting ability by taking a lot of walks as well as HBP's producing OBP's over .400.  He previously played fo Durocher on the 1940's Dodgers teams.  Stanky was the perfect leadoff hitter while Dark was the perfect #2 hitter.  They played together for the Giants for just two seasons, but were as responsible for winning the 1951 pennant as anyone on the team.  For those of you who believe in "clubhouse chemistry", the 1940's Giants were the team that prompted Leo Durocher to coin his famous phrase, "nice guys finish last."  Dark and Stanky were Durocher type players who achieved both success, failure and controversy throughout their careers with their fiery personalities.

Here are the stat lines for the 1951 Giants keystone combo and their leadoff and #2 hitters:

Eddie Stanky:  .247/.401/.369, 17 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 88 R, 43 RBI, 19.4 BB%, 9.6 K%, 653 PA, 5.0 fWAR.

Alvin Dark:  .303/.352/.454, , 41 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 12 SB, 114 R, 69 RBI, 6.0 BB%, 5.6 K%, 700 PA, 5.2 fWAR.

Now, how would you like to see THAT at the top of the Giants lineup in 2020?

Stanky left the Giants after the 1951 season to be player-manager of the Cardinals and quickly ramped down his playing career to concentrate on pulling the strings from the dugout.  Dark played 6+ seasons for the Giants and was also part of their 1954 World Series Championship team.  He also went on to have a successful and controversial career as a manager of multiple teams including the pennant winning 1962 Giants, but that's a story for another day.

Hot Stove Review: Dodgers

The Dodgers are coming off their 7'th consecutive NL West division championship(and 31'st consecutive failure to win the World Series).  Thus they came into the Hot Stove League season looking for a game-changing addition which would make them prohibitive favorites to win it all in 2020.  They may have accomplished that by adding one of the top 5 players in all of baseball(for just one season), but gave up a lot in a blockbuster trade.  They seemed to have another big trade set up with the Angels that fell through.  We'll take a look at that one too.  Here's the summary:

Free Agents Lost:  Rich Hill(LHP), Hyun-Jin Ryu(LHP), Russell Martin(C), Jedd Gyorko(IF), David Freese(IF).

Free Agents Signed:  Blake Treinen(RHP), Jimmy Nelson(RHP), Alex Wood(LHP).

Trades:  1.  Acquired Mookie Betts(OF) and David Price(LHP) from the Red Sox for Alex Verdugo(OF), Connor Wong(C) and Jeter Downs(SS).  2.  Sent Kenta Maeda(RHP) and Jair Camargo(C) to the Twins for Brusdar Graterol(RHP) and Luke Raley(OF).  Graterol was originally supposed to be flipped to the Red Sox but failed their physical(he's had widely reported injury issues).  The Dodgers ended up keeping him and sending Downs and Wong to the Red Sox instead.  The Dodgers also had another trade set up with the Angels which did not involve any players exchanged in the first two trades but was apparently contingent on them.  The trade was Joc Pederson(OF), Ross Stripling(RHP) and Andy Pages(OF) for Luis Rengifo(IF) and an unnamed prospect.  This trade was delayed while the Dodgers and Red Sox ironed out their trade.  Angels owner, Artie Moreno, reportedly became disgusted with the delay and cancelled the trade.  This is a curious development as the trade appeared to be much more favorable for the Angels, unless the unnamed prospect was Jo Adell, in which case, the Dodgers were stupid to not remove the contingency part of the trade and just complete it.  Got all that?

Arbitration(Non-tendered- lost):  Yimi Garcia(RHP).

Arbitration(Signed/Avoided):  Scott Alexander(LHP), Austin Barnes(C), Cody Bellinger(OF), Enrique Hernandez(UT), Julio Urias(LHP), Ross Striping(RHP), Corey Seager(SS), Max Muncy(2B/1B- 3 year contract), Chris Taylor(OF- 2 year contract).

Arbitration(player won):  Pedro Baez(RHP).

Summary:  The addition of Betts gives the Dodgers a crazy good lineup with even crazier good positional depth.  The losses of Ryu and Maeda are significant.  The rotation has a lot question marks after Kershaw(who is suddenly a bit of a question mark himself) and Walker Buehler probably should be considered the ace of the staff now.  Price is coming off an injury plagued season but seemed healthy in spring training.  He can be a solid #3 if he stays healthy.  Urias can be a star if he stays healthy.  The bullpen needed more depth with Kenley Jansen possibly on the downside of his career.  Treinen is coming off a down season and has to bounce back.  Graterol might eventually be a Closer, but has an injury history of his own and is only on the roster because he failed his physical with the Red Sox. But maybe the Dodgers don't need more than average pitching with their positional strength. They can also add a pitcher in a midseason trade(they still have Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling as potential trade chips).

Looking ahead, the Dodgers have some age creeping up on them, especially on the pitching side, Betts is a free agent at the end of the season and their farm system is not what it was a couple of years ago.  Their "window" may be down to 1 year and they need to hope the pitching doesn't implode.

Grade B.

Blast from the Past: Monte Irvin's 1951 Season

Apologies for fewer posts.  Historical pieces and offseason reviews take a bit longer to research and write up than Game Wraps.  We all know the story of the 1951 Giants.  We know about Willie Mays callup from the minor leagues.  How he lit a spark to a team that trailed the Dodgers by 9 games.  We know about Bobby Thomson's home run.  I've always been fascinated by the other players on that team and how really good they were.  The MVP by fWAR of the 1951 Giants and ranked #6 in MLB was Monte Irvin.

Monte Irvin was a star for the Newark Eagles of the Negro National League.  He was a 5-tool SS/CF up until WW II in which he served for 3 years in the European Theatre with a segregated engineering unit.  His ears were damaged in the war which caused loss of balance but he was still able to play, albeit with a reduction in tools and performance.  After Jackie Robinson's tremendous success, Dodgers GM Branch Rickey was looking for other black players and wanted to sign Monte Irvin.  Eagles business manager, Effa Manley, was by now wise to the economic impact of losing star players to the major leagues.  She demanded compensation from Rickey and threatened to sue if she didn't get it.  Rickey backed off.  The Giants eventually paid $5000 for Irvin's contract in 1949.

Irvin's MLB career got off to a slow start as he batted just .224 in 93 PA in 1949.  He was 30 years old.  He progressed to a slash line of .299/.392/.497 in 432 PA in 1950 for an fWAR of 3.2.  1951 was, by far, his best MLB season.  Irvin did not just serve as a mentor for Willie Mays.  He was the star of the 1951 team in his own right.  Playing both corner OF positions and 1B, he fashioned an outstanding batting line of .312/.415/.514, 19 2B, 11 3B, 24 HR, 12 SB, 94 R, 121 RBI, 13.5 BB%, 6.7 K%, 657 PA, 6.4 fWAR.  Just look at that!  I would call that Vottoesque for a comp with a current player.  he finished third in the NL MVP balloting behind Roy Campanella and Stan Musial.  The Giants went on to lose the World Series to the Yankees in 6 games but Monte Irvin had a great series with 11 hits, a .458 BA and a steal of home in Game 1.

A fractured ankle suffered on a slide into 3B in spring training limited Irvin to 46 games in 1952.  He played better in 1953 for a bad Giants team without Willie Mays who was serving the second year of army duty.  Mays was back in 1954 and Irvin contributed a .262 BA with 19 HR's as the Giants won the World Series in 4 games against the Cleveland Indians.

Irvin's final playing season was 1956 with the Cubs.  He went on to have a distinguished post-playing career in various roles for MLB.  The Giants retired his #20 in 2010.  He joined other Giants living Hall of Famers in throwing out the first pitch for the 2010 World Series.  He passed away in 2016 at the age of 96.

*Biographical facts were taken from Monte Irvin's SABR biography and Stats are from Fangraphs.

Hot Stove Review: Giants

By request, we'll try to review offseasons for as many teams as we can.  We'll start with the Giants then NL West then rest of NL.  We'll do AL if we have time and don't burn out.  With the very real possibility of losing the entire season looming, reviewing with offseason seems a bit futile, but hey, maybe we can just declare winners based on offseason performance.  Aaanyway.....here is a summary of Giants key offseason moves(way too many for a comprehensive list):

Free Agents Lost:  Madison Bumgarner(LHP), Will Smith(LHP), Steven Vogt(C.)

Non-tendered(lost):  Kevin Pillar(OF).

MLB Free Agents Signed:  Kevin Gausman(RHP).  Drew Smyly(LHP), Wilmer Flores IF(2 yrs), Hunter Pence(OF.)

Trades:  Zack Cozart(IF) and Will Wilson(IF) from the Angels for cash or PTBNL(Giants take on full $12 M of Cozart's remaining contract and release him, essentially paying $12 M for the last year's #15 draft pick, Wilson).

Non-tendered(Re-signed):  Joey Rickard(OF), Tyler Anderson(LHP), Rico Garcia(RHP),

Avoided Arbitration:  Donovan Solano(IF), Alex Dickerson(OF), Wandy Peralta(LHP).

Rule 5 Draft:  Dany Jimenez(RHP).

Minor League Contracts:  Yolmer Sanchez(IF), Billy Hamilton(OF), Trevor Cahill(RHP), Tyson Ross(RHP), Darin Ruf(1B/OF), Rob Brantly(C), Tyler Heineman(C), Drew Robinson(IF).

Waiver Claim:  Jarlin Garcia(LHP).

Summary:  Nice collection of potentially undervalued, breakout and bounceback players.  That's not the stuff you generally build championship teams with, but you might find a piece or two for the longterm puzzle and you might create some nice trade opportunities at the trade deadline.  Late in the offseason FZ went into churn mode and brought in a huge number of spring training invitations which created several roster dilemmas without clearly making the team better.

Loss of Madison Bumgarner hurts, but after more of the story came out it was probably never in the cards and probably for the best to move on.  Failure to get a more established RH bat for the OF, frontline SP and Closer meant offseason did not generate much enthusiasm to overcome the pain of losing Bummy.  Best move was for the future with the Will Wilson trade.

Grade:  C+.

Down on the Farm: Giants Sign International Prospect

Hmm.....I thought it was a bit odd the Giants seemed to leave money on the table last July 2.  I figured if Farhan knew he wasn't going to use all of his bonus pool money, he would have traded it.  Well, we may now know why and it's pretty darn exciting stuff.  Per Alex P on NBC Bay Area, the Giants have signed a 16 year old prospect from the Dominican Republic who is being compared by some to Fernando Tatis Jr.  In fact, Javier Alexander Francisco Estrella is a protege of Fernando Tatis Sr.

This kid is listed at 6'2", 175 lbs and if you look at the video, the Fernando Tatis Jr comp is inescapable.  Tall, lean, athletic looking.  Long levers but graceful, powerful motions.  Reportedl a true 5-tool athlete.  I could not find any info on what he signed for, but I would think he would be in great demand.  He as apparently eligible to be signed on July 2.  No word on why he did not sign then or why his name does not show up on any of last year's July 2 prospect lists.

Hopefully we'll find out more as time goes on, but based on the available information and a snipped of extremely impressive video, I would think he is immediately a top 10 Giants prospect.  If he is what he appears to be, and I realize we are working with very little information, the Giants farm system, which was alread rated top 10 by some analysts, just got a whole lot stronger.  Check it out!

COVID 19 Update: Help Us Help You!

I am a medical professional.  The numbers keep pouring in and are overwhelming, both scientific and economic.  It's easy to become fatalistic, give up and say, "what will be will be."  There is nothing I can do about it anyway.   I imagine if I feel that way, the average person out there must be feeling it even more.  The numbers, to be sure, are extremely sobering.  We are in the greatest fight to save our civilization as we know it since World War 2.  But, in the overwhelmingly bleak numbers, there is clear evidence that this fight is winnable, that the worst case scenario can be avoided.  It's up to us, individually and collectively.  If you follow the numbers nothing is surprising and the weapons to fight back clear.

For a quick review, Covid-19 is a respiratory virus transmitted from host-to-host through droplets dispersed in the air in a 6 foot radius around people who are infected.  It can also be transmitted through direct contact with hosts and with surfaces droplets have landed on as well as through fomites, or dormant viruses, on surfaces.  But the main route of transmission seems to be through airborne droplets.  Here are a few statistical facts:

1.  On average, each person infected with the virus transmits it to approximately 2-2.5 other people.  Incubation period is 5-6 days.  In every country and community where the virus has gained a foothold and left unchecked, the number of new cases has doubled every 6 days.  Every. Single. Time!

2.  China and South Korea demonstrated that this exponential growth in the number of cases can be blunted or reversed through aggressive testing and quarantining.

3.  In average risk populations, Case Fatality Ratios(CFR's) can be held at approximately 2% as long as the healthcare system is not overwhelmed(CFR's can be held lower than 2% in lower risk populations such as South Korea).  So far in the U.S., the healthcare system has mostly had capacity to treat all affected patients through supportive care and our CFR is holding at 2%.  

4.  In average risk populations, if the healthcare system is overwhelmed, CFR's rise to around 4%.  In Italy, a country with a high risk population AND an overwhelmed healthcare system, CFR's have ballooned to a horrifying 7-8%.  We cannot let the number of cases increase to the point of overwhelming the healthcare system!

These numbers are based on known, confirmed cases.  Real CFR's may be lower due to uncounted cases, but the above numbers have remained remarkably stable as the totals climb.  As us baseball fans know so well, the larger the sample, the more likely it won't regress.

So, what does this data tell us?  The bad news is this virus has the capacity to kill in numbers none of us have ever witnessed.  The good news is that aggressive preventive measures can limit the number of infections with the added benefit of allowing the healthcare system to save up to half of infected patients who would otherwise die.

This is why it is imperative that each and every one of us must practice social distancing, not just to stay disease free ourselves, but to "flatten the curve"(and eventually reverse it) and give us, your healthcare professionals, a fighting chance to save those who are not fortunate enough to escape infection.  Despite having no proven effective treatments for the virus itself, healthcare professionals can save lives through aggressive supportive care, but you need to give us a fighting chance.  To paraphrase the immortal Jerry Maguire, "We need you to help us, help you!"

For details of how to help us, visit the CDC website for best practices for social distancing.  You may also wish to review my prior post entitled Thoughts on Novel Coronavirus(COVID-19).  I have come to sum it all up in one simple principle:  Your probability of becoming infected is directly proportional to the number of people you come within 6 feet of.  Simple as that.  Every other recommendation is based on that fact.

RIP Johnny Antonelli

As a lifelong Giants fan, I was vaguely aware of a pitcher named Johnny Antonelli.  That is a shame because Johhny Antonelli had a long, successful run pitching for both the New York and San Francisco Giants and was a major contributor to the last World Series championship the Giants won before 2010.  Johnny was a native of New York state. Unfortunately, he was not pleased with the Giants move to San Francisco and was open about his feelings for the new city.  San Francisco fans, in turn hated him, which is probably why he was not more well known to Giants fans like me. Johnny Antonelli died on February 28, 2020 at the age of 89.

Johnny Antonelli was a locally renowned lefthanded high school pitcher in the state of New York.  His father, a railroad track worker, tireless wrote to scouts and organized showcase games for his prodigy son.  Johnny impressed the scouts enough to spark a bidding war and signed with the Boston Braves for what was then a huge bonus of $52, 000 in 1948.  For comparison sake, veteran star pitcher Johnny Sain was making just $22, 000 that season.  As a "bonus baby", Antonelli had to be kept on the MLB roster for at least 2 seasons.  The Braves won the NL pennant in 1948 behind the pitching of Sain and Warren Spahn, so Johnny Antonelli was used mostly to pitch batting practices.  You may recall a saying that sprung out of the season, "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain." The veterans resented Johnny's large bonus and refused to award him any World Series shares before the commissioner intervened and awarded him several hundred dollars.

Antonelli pitched more over the next two seasons with mixed success, then spent 2 seasons in the military.  He played on military teams which served the same purpose as minor league games.  He came back in 1953 and went 12-12 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves.  He was then traded to the Giants in a 6 player trade that involved Bobby Thompson going the other way.  Needless to say, trading away the hero of 1951 was not popular with Giants fans, but Johnny won them over with the best season of his career going 21-7 with a 2.30 ERA.  He then started and won game 2 of the 1954 World Series and Saved game 4 in relief of Hoyt Wilhelm as the Giants swept the Indians.

Although his subsequent career was a bit up and down, he went on to win 20 games with a 2.86 ERA in 1956 and won 19 games with a 3.10 ERA for the 1959 San Francisco Giants.  Despite pitching well for the San Francisco Giants, Antonelli hated the city of San Francisco, was not fond of playing in Seals Stadium and spoke out about the wind in Candlestick Park.  San Francisco fans in turn considered him a snobby New Yorker and heaped boos and scorn on him.  His ERA ballooned in 1961 and the owner of the Cleveland Indians became convinced that all Johnny needed was a change in scenery and worked out a trade that sent Harvey Kuenn to the Giants.  Alas, Johnny did not turn his career around with the Indians and he retired to his hometown in New York state.

Johnny invested the money he earned from baseball in a tire store.  He expanded the business into a chain of stores selling Firestone tires and became a successful and very wealthy businessman in his won right.  He remained in contact with Giants ownership and made regular appearances at Giants reunions and alumni events.

So, RIP Johnny Antonelli.  I believe San Francisco fans should forgive him for hating the city on the opposite coast from his home and consider him a forever Giant.  If you would like to read an excellent article about Johnny Antonelli, look up a recent one on Hardball Times.  There is also a nice career summary on the SABR website.

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Again, thanks to readers and commenters for the positive response to my posts about the COVID-19 pandemic.  We'll try to delve into some Giants and baseball history to fill the space where Game Wraps and Down on the Farm would otherwise be.  I will also try to put together some offseason summaries for the Giant and other MLB teams per a reader request.