Hey team! We've wrapped up our Hot Stove League Coverage and DrB's 2026 Giants Top 50 Prospects. We await the first exhibition games of spring training. We find ourselves in the silly time when we're trying to figure out roster spots and predict Rafael Devers is going to hit 50 home runs(I think it was Glen Kuiper who predicted that) from live batting practices. So we've got a couple of days with nothing to write about except parsing some comments the manager made to the press. So, let's open it up. You are all welcome to post your thoughts and burning questions in the comment section. I will do my best to answer or respond. As always it's my blog and I reserve the right to hit the button on comments I deem less than constructive.
Otherwise, let's hear it.
It appears that 2026 will bring the Robo-Ump challenges to MLB as a regular feature. It appears that they are also going to get rid of the rectangular strike zone box on the telecasts. What impact might this have on gameplay or gamesmanship in your opinion?
ReplyDeleteGood question. Hard to say until we see it in action. I watched an extended interview of Buster Posey by Glen Kuiper on The Youtube. Based on that I would say Buster takes it very seriously. He said he already has the analytics department looking at what situations where a contested ball/strike comes up are the highest leverage and strongly hinted they plan to keep their powder dry for those situations. I saw another interview with Adrian Houser by Alex P where Houser said he plans to leave it completely up to the catcher because they are in a better position to judge and are more objective.
DeleteI read an article article that Bailey’s value may actually go up with the ABS system. Since he’s such a good framer and knows the strike zone so well he should be able to determine when it’s a good time to challenge.
DeleteI will look for that article link, but in the meantime I found this interesting YouTube piece on how good Bailey is defensively:
https://youtu.be/SeCMKAkw__4?si=ScYYrmdXKsuJnpYu
Here’s the article. It’s actually just a paragraph inside where they mention that Bailey should be able to win his fair share of challenges since he knows the zone so well:
Deletehttps://aroundthefoghorn.com/sf-giants-gm-thinks-patrick-bailey-could-actually-improve-with-mlb-rule-change
Sadly, I don't believe the strike zone box will be going away. The only thing that will change is that when they mark the location of the pitch on screen, there won't be a determination as to whether it's a ball or strike. (They do this by having the marked location a different color for ball or strike, or a different shading.) Like that makes a difference.
DeletePersonally I really dislike the box. It's lazy. It clutters the screen. It detracts from actually watching the pitch and its movement. It's often not even accurate as to the strike zone. It prompts knee-jerk acrimony from fans because a box validates their belief in a "bad" call.
And mostly, I personally like that split second moment as the catcher catches the pitch, where I assess the pitch for myself and make the call in my own mind, before the umpire (or ABS) makes its the call.
Whether the batter checked his swing is not any part of this, right?
ReplyDeleteIs just about where the pitch was – a called ball or strike – when the batter did not swing?
Not sure. Any other readers have some insight?
DeletePer Google AI it appears the challenge system only applies to location in or out of the strike zone.
DeletePredict how many career MLB IP will be accumulated among the mid-minors LHPs: Whittman, Choate, Bertrand, Lonsway, Carmouche, Zwack, Wynja?
ReplyDeleteI'd say those guys are all closer to being released than pitching in the majors so I'll take the under on 100 innings for all 7 combined.
DeleteSchmitt and/or Koss and/or Fitzgerald?
ReplyDeleteIs it "power" or "defense" or "versatility"?
Will Spring Training be fully determinative?
Is there only room for 2 of the 3?
Plenty of reasons to like both Schmitt and Koss. Schmitt seems to have more power potential but Koss seems to have a better all-around game with possibly a bit better range at shortstop. There is a path for both Schmitt and Koss to make the team if the Giants carry just one reserve OF but that would likely mean both Matos and Encarnacion get DFA'd.
DeleteI am not seeing room for Fitz to make the team.
DeleteLets get some lineup projections out there. I’ve heard a few iterations but I think this is the one I would like to see opening day:
ReplyDeleteArreaz 2B
Adames SS
Devers 1B
Chapman 3B
Eldridge DH
Ramos LF
Lee RF
Bader CF
Bailey C
I would flip Lee and Eldridge but otherwise that looks about right.
DeleteAdames strikes out way too much to be hitting second. I'd put Lee there. Stick Adames at 6th and move Ramos down to 7th.
DeleteI say, by the end of the season, Birdsong will be the closer. And be very successful in the role.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to say Blade Tidwell. Dude is a monster!
DeleteMy hunch as well.
DeleteAnd don't forget Will Bednar who seems to finally be healthy and reportedly throwing 99+ heat.
DeleteTidwell might be feeling some level of comfort seeing his former Tennessee coaches TonyV and Frank Anderson in camp. Bedner has a good shot to show what he can do. Excited for the season to start.
DeleteBlade has an 80 grade name for a closer and it would be awesome to see him slicing through opposing lineups to finish off victories.
DeleteI’m glad to see Bednar coming back around. His college program rode him like a 20 dollar mule to the College WS. On the way the coach got big ups and they won, but on the down side they rode him like a 20 mule, and he was damaged goods IMO when the Giants drafted him, and his arm needed a full year and a half to recover from the overwork. I’m not sure I’d ever trust his shoulder to be 150+ innings in a season, but he could be a very high quality relief arm. /PH
DeleteIs anyone else questioning a lineup that has to depend on Chapman in the cleanup spot? (By the way, Baggs has Encarnacion as the DH with Eldridge starting the season in Sacramento.) An argument could be made to move either to #4 in the hitting order and push Chapman back.
ReplyDeleteMy analysis says the cleanup spot has the best chance of coming in the first inning with at least one runner on base. The trade-off is each time you move down a spot in the batting order, you lose 15-20 PA's over the course of the season. Current analytics seem to favor putting your best hitters higher in the lineup. In that paradigm, Chapman batting fourth is not a big deal.
DeleteOverwhelmingly, Chapman's worst splits are historically batting 4th, whether it's BA, OBP, SLG, or OPS.
DeleteIf it weren't so conclusive, one could suggest a small sample size, but that does not prevail.
He is good (but not as good) batting 4th:
1142 PAs: .223/.318/.420/.738 which is OK, but he really is better "down the order."
This is not going to happen, but here is Chapman batting 7th:
639 PAs: .262/.352/.501/.853, far better than batting 4th but only half the sample size.
If batting positions 6 & 7 are combined (a comparable sample size):
1487 PAs .258/.344/.484/.828 (some rounding error)
Chapman is too good to bat that low, and they don't have the "better bats" to hit in front of him.
However, he is really good, historically, batting 2nd or 3rd (combined more PAs than batting 4th) with OPS's comfortably over .800:
2nd: 782 PAs .258/.339/.494/.832
3rd: 433 PAs .233/.323/.501/.825
This would suggest putting Chapman in front of Devers, still getting Devers' power up in the 1st inning with a runner on base.
Chapman behind Devers does protect him, but shouldn't Devers have protection behind him?
Could Ramos or Lee or Bader be that batter?
All data is from:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=chapmma01&year=Career&t=b
I am..I still think, amongst many other issues, the Giants are one bat short...I guess they could be averge if everything works well but it would have been optimum to have one bigger bat (I don't men Bader) to move both Adames and Chapman and their inconsitiences just one spot lower in terms of lineup and, more importantly, importance..Iunderstand funds aren't unlimited but would have made better use of the Arraez (who I don't mind) and Bader money.. OTOH, they are short term deals.Maybe all this waits until the emergence of ELDRIDGE (or he is traded becasue of the log jam) sometime within the next 2 years.
DeleteSteveVA
Bold Predictions: 1. Eldridge hits 25 HR's, Devers hits 40 and the lineup is just fine. 2. Kids step it up and make the bullpen a plus.
DeleteI would have Arreaz and Ramos hitting one and two. With Devers hitting behind him, Ramos is likely to see more fastballs.
ReplyDeleteI believe both will get on base a lot setting up Devers and Adames for a possible big inning.
Arreaz 2B
Ramos LF
Devers 1B
Adames SS
Chapman 3B
Lee RF
Bader CF
Eldridge DH
Bailey C
I like the first four in this lineup. Ramos saw the most pitches on the team last year and having him and Arraez batting one and two to lead off the game will allow the team to get a better idea of the opposing pitcher’s stuff. If Eldridge is developing well I might slot him after Adames to set up alternating lefties and righties throughout the order.
DeleteWith all the talk above of Chapman's different hitting tends in particular spots in the order, I took a look at Willy Adams as well.
DeleteTurns out hitting 4th in the order is by far his best stats trend performance. He might be the right guy for the spot as his power really jumped at Oracle towards the end of the season. Would move Chapman, Eldridge and Lee down and lengthen the lineup.
Otherwise I agree that Arreaz and Heliot should be atop the order at 1-2.
Doc mentioned it in an earlier post, but yeah, wow, Devers is carrying a lot of extra weight into ST. I'm a big believer in his talent, but being this out-of-shape is a little concerning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1r9jbbe/turn_up_the_volume_thats_what_a_ball_sounds_like/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
The image looked a bit compressed and other videos shot in ST do not make him look fat. The coach looked compressed also.
DeleteSomebody mentioned the closer spot but what abut the bullpen as a whole?...Question marks in every role and considering that the only time the Giants played half decent baseball last year was when the bullpen was lights out in the 1st half...Anyways, my two tiered questions are..how devastating to the team psyche and season will a failing out of the gate ( possible) bullpen be? Also, if it does fail, will Vitello take the advice and learn from masters like Bochy or even Baker regarding bullpen management? He hasn't leaned on others for many years
ReplyDeleteSteveVA
SteveVA
I predict we're going to see some younger pitchers step up in the bullpen.
DeleteAny predictions on who the Giants select at #4 in the draft? Any dark horse candidates? I will throw out Spangler at below slot.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking they could cut across the grain and take Cameron Flukey RHP.
DeleteOn the pitching front let’s keep our eyes on Jackson Flora, from UCSB, which seems to be developing into somewhat of a pitching incubator. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets snagged by the Twins right before us.
DeleteCoach Checketts has developed an impactful list of Gauchos who have had success in the MLB. McGreevey (Cardinals), Bieber, Bremner ($2 pick by the Angels) and others
DeleteMy bold predictions:
ReplyDelete1)Adames, Ramos and Chapman all hit over 30 HRs.
2) Ryan Walker regroups and becomes the closer again.
3)Landon Roupp throws 150innings with a 3.50 ERA
4)Some time after the All-Star break, Jesus Rodriquez is called up as the 3rd catcher/occasional DH/bat off the bench.
5) Trevor McDonald becomes the 5th starter after the inevitable SP injury
The Giants appear to have signed a few highly regarded International Prospects in the past few years. (At least the ones not from Japan). Can you recall any International prospects from Venezuela or the caribbean in the past 10 years that have made a splash at the MLB level? I am hoping these young guys make it but they are often very young and perhaps the delayed gratification makes it harder for me to have high hopes for them.
ReplyDeletePer Google AI, young international players to recently make an immediate impact include Jackson Chourio(Brewers), Julio Rodriguez(Mariners) and Elle De La Cruz(Reds). I might add you O'Neil Cruz(Pirates), but he had a down year in 2025.
DeleteDoval within the last ten years. Going back further: Sandoval, Moronta, and Feliz.
DeleteA little off topic, but does anyone know how to watch games on TV? Looks like NBC BayArea Sports is again just showing a few selected spring training games ... does every team just do that? Can I subscribe to MLB TV or something for a month or two and see all of the Giants' exhibition games?
ReplyDeleteI am looking at that myself. Unfortunately the only way to get the Giants broadcast feed for spring training games is via NBC Sports Bay Area and they only show a handful of games and only ones played in Scottsdale. You can increase that number by subscribing to MLB TV which includes NBCSBA plus other team's broadcasts for some of the away games but you are probably not going to get more than 50% of the total spring games no matter what you sign up for. I am just getting ready to sign up for my MLB TV package for the season as I write this.
DeleteI don't know if you allow links, but this reddit post shares who is broadcasting Giants ST games. TV & Radio. Whether the Giants are broadcasting, or the opponent, or both.
Deletehttps://www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/comments/1r7tbey/how_to_watch_or_listen_to_giants_spring_training/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Bo Davidson will have a breakout season in Richmond then Sacramento and force the Giants to call him up late in the year. I like the scouting reports on him.
ReplyDeleteJoel Peguero finished very strong in his 17-game debut in 2025, and Doc has suggested the 29-yr old rookie as a possible closer.
ReplyDeleteHis 35 games with the River Cats didn't show a lot other than he could strike out a lot of batters, but the PCL can be unkind to pitchers.
Why was he mostly, almost entirely, electric for the Giants?
Because he could roll out of bed throwing hundos?
DeleteGotta have something to back it up though. Or like Carson Seymour found out, dudes in the big leagues will put your really awesome fastball right into the bleachers if you've got nothing else to throw...
DeletePeguero seems to get great spin and movement tho, so I can imagine a wipeout slider being feasible for him at some point.
SF fan in MI