Thursday, February 12, 2026

Hot Stove League Update: DrB's Final Grades

 Hey team!  I really appreciate the comments and grades for the Giants offseason.  I specifically asked for grades for Buster Posey(and by extension his assistants in the front office).  In this post I will give you my grade for Buster Posey et al and also for the organization which I think had a better Hot Stove League than Buster did personally((I will explain although maybe Buster gets all the credit by virtue of sitting in the hot seat where he gets blamed for bad luck and therefore maybe should get credit for good luck?).  Here are the grades:

Buster Posey B: Buster came into the 2025/2026 Hot Stove League with multiple holes to fill and one big limitation.  We can argue endlessly about whether Giants ownership can or should be spending money to match the Dodgers.  I do believe that if Buster went to ownership with a player he felt he needed to give them a serious shot at not just the postseason but a championship, ownership would give him the green light even if it put them over the CBT threshold.  I also believe there were no players on this year's market Buster would do that for.  I also agree with Buster and Greg Johnson that too many simultaneous 5 and 6 year contracts are asking for disaster down the road.  So for all practical purposes, the CBT threshold was the upper limit of the payroll he would end up with and there were not going to be any long term contracts handed out.  So with that situation as the starting point, let's look at the holes he filled:

Manager:  Wow!  Buster gets extra points just for the publicity the Tony Vitello hiring generated.  Might actually be the biggest story of the Hot Stove League.  He backed that up by bringing in a team of diverse but highly respected coaches who are expected to do what FZ and Gabe Kapler claimed they would do with their coaching staff.  Now if all this turns out to be the right Manager and right coaching staff, Buster looks like a genius.  If it fails, it may take Buster down with it so he may have bet his entire tenure on this one move.

Starting Pitching Depth:  With Justin Verlander RHP a free agent, he needed to be replaced.  Beyond replacing Verlander, He needed additional starting depth.  He had a bevy of young starting pitchers who might step up but he had that last year and came up short.  He needed at least 2 veteran arms more than he needed one top-end SP.  On top of all that, the price of pitching was insane.  Buster ended up with Adrian Houser RHP and Tyler Mahle RHP two veteran SP's coming off strong seasons but with injury histories.  Signing pitchers with injury histories to discounted short term contracts is a Moneyball GM's wet dream.

Right Field/Outfield DefenseBuster faced a two-headed monster in the outfield with a hole to fill in RF and a CF coming off one of the worst defensive performances in MLB.  He solved both problems with one move signing Harrison Bader CF, one of the best defensive CF's in baseball, to 2 year contract.  That basically forced Jung Hoo Lee OF to move to RF where his more range limitations and strong arm should be a better fit.  

Second Base:  A lot of us would be happy if Casey Schmitt IF was the presumptive starting 2B but Buster has been clear on his desire to increase contact and decrease strikeouts.  When the opportunity arose to snag the top contact hitter in all of MLB at a discounted price and just one year to boot, Buster did not hesitate.  Luis Arraez is the Giants new 2B on 1 yr/$11 M.  Buster is counting on Arraez work ethic and IF coach Ron Washington to make him at least playable at 2B.

DH:  Whether Bryce Eldridge starts the season in AAA or in the Opening Day Lineup, it's clear Buster and the Giants intend for him to get his big shot at MLB stardom this season.  He may be shagging fly balls in the outfield but the bulk of his PA's will come as either DH, 1B or both, splitting the positions with Rafael Devers.  There is some risk in this move but I love the commitment and if it works out, Buster comes out of it looking like a genius.

Bullpen/Closer:  This is where I knock Buster down by a letter grade.  I don't see how Ryan Walker RHP can come to camp as the presumptive Closer but here we are.  I get that Moneyball dogma says you don't spend top dollars on Closers or bullpen arms and somebody will alway step up, it didn't last season and it looks like there are fewer options this year.  Prices for Closer-quality bullpen arms were insane and signing one would have made it difficult to fill the other holes and remain under the CBT threshold but if the season ends up imploding, the Closer role is the most likely to be ground-zero.  

Giants sign Top international free agent Luis Hernandez for $5 M.  The groundwork was laid for this long before Buster took over as POBO so he does not get complete credit but for the second year in a row, the Giants under his leadership traded for international bonus pool money, something they almost never did in the past.  This enabled the Giants to not only meet Hernandez' asking price but also sign other international players.  Based on review of the Giants transaction log, that extra money has already been spend on new signings.  So Buster gets at least partial credit for continued tangible commitment to the international market.  

Giants Win the Draft Lottery:  Well, they didn't exactly win it in terms of grabbing the #1 overall pick but they moved all the way up from #15 to #4 which should yield another top prospect and give another shot in the arm to a farm system that has found serious Helium.  So, this is pure luck and Buster gets no credit.  Maybe Randy Winn gets credit for being the Giants representative in the room, or may Buster does get credit for choosing Randy Winn to be there.  In any event, I would bet a lot of money that Randy Winn is the rep at the next Draft Lottery.

Organizational Grade: A-(higher grade due to adding Luis Hernandez and moving up 11 spots in the 2026 draft).  

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