The Giants and Dodgers played a game today and nobody cares. The game is almost certainly not what you checked in to read about. So a few minutes after game time I opened Gameday and was shocked to see that Sean Hjelle was pitching. I texted my friend questioning why Kyle Harrison LHP was a late scratch. He replied "big trade". I thought he was joking for a second but then it sunk in. Wow! What a block....ahem....Buster! OK, we'll get to the trade but let's get the Game Wrap out of the way first.
A bullpen game wasn't quite enough to hold back the Dodgers enough to take the weekend series. Key Lines:
Jung Hoo Lee CF- 1 for 5, 3B, 2 RBI. BA= .265. Lee's 5'th triple of the season drove in two runs to cap a 3-run rally in the 4'th inning.
Mike Yastrzemski RF- 2 for 3, BB, R. BA= .248. YtY stared the Giants 4'th inning rally with a 2-out single.
Christian Koss 2B/3B- 1 for 4, R, RBI. BA= .217. Christian Koss followed Logan Porter's walk with an RBI single to drive in YtY with the Giants first run. He then scored on Lee's triple.
Daniel Johnson PH- 1 for 1, HR(1), R, RBI. BA= .235. Johnson's PH HR in the 8'th closed the gap to 5-4. Alas, it was too little, too late.
Sean Hjelle RHP- 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K's. ERA= 4.70. Not a terrible start considering the late notice(Harrison had already gone down to the bullpen to warm up) and the craziness of the trade. He got touched for a run in each of the first two innings then settled down to get through 3.2 IP and leave with the lead.
Joey Lucchesi LHP- 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 0 K. ERA= 27.00. Lucchesi was a late add to the roster, got roughed up and took the loss.
So, the Giants lose the series but it's way better than a sweep and the win Friday night sure still feels good. I am sure by the end of the season nobody will remember this game....at least for the game.
So....how about that trade?
Literally minutes before game time, the Buster Posey swung a blockBuster trade with the Red Sox for disgruntled slugger Rafael Devers 3B/DH. In return the Giants give up Kyle Harrison LHP who was scratched from the game he was supposed to start, Jordan Hicks RHP, James Tibbs III OF and Jose Bello RHP. Tibbs and Bello are minor leaguers but Tibbs was last year's first round draft pick so he's not a trivial part of the trade package.
There is a lot to unpack here. Rafael Devers is an elite hitter in MLB. Until this season he looked like the player the Red Sox would build their future around after they signed him to a 10-year/$315 M contract before the 2024 season. Then they went out and signed Alex Bregman to a free agent contract this offseason and asked Devers to move to first base. Devers felt like he was the top dawg on the team and had not done anything to lose his primary position and refused to play first base stating he did not feel comfortable there. Devers became the full time DH but was clearly still not happy and the Red Sox were not happy with him. Buster Posey sensed an opportunity and did not wait around. At worst, Devers will be what I have said all along is the Giants biggest need: A lefty hitting power bat who could play DH, 1B or RF. So I am fine if at least for the rest of this season Devers is the DH. Here is the profile on Devers:
Rafael Devers 3B/DH. DOB: 10/24/1996. B-L, T-R. 6' 0", 235 lbs.
2025: .271/.400/.494, 14 HR, 16.7 BB%, 23.0 K%, 330 PA.
Which is pretty close to being on pace for his career average season.
I think we are all pretty familiar with what the Giants gave up:
Kyle Harrison LHP. DOB: 8/12/2001. 6' 2", 209 lbs.
2025: 1-1, 4.56, 23.2 IP, 9.51 K/9, 3.42 BB/9. Promising young pitcher. Third round draft pick out of HS in 2020 but got late first round money in his bonus. Stuff can be electric but with inconsistent command. Unorthodox low-slot delivery.
Jordan Hicks RHP. DOB: 9/6/1996. 6' 2", 217 lbs.
2025: 1-5, 6.47, 7.95 K/9, 3.70 BB/9. Signed to be starter for a modest 4 yr/$44 M contract. Although he pitched well in a few starts, he seemed to wear down quickly and not have the stamina for the role. His reliance on a high-velocity sinker probably results in too much contact for today's game. The Giants are able to offload the remainder of his contract which is about $30 M and what role he's going to fill is someone else's problem.
James Tibbs III OF. DOB: 10/1/2002. B-L, T-R. 6' 0", 201 lbs.
2025(A+): .245/.377/.480, 12 HR, 16.3 BB%, 17.9 K%, 252 PA.
Tremendous plate discipline with power but with borderline BA. I always worry guys with that profile in the lower minors won't maintain an adequate BA at higher levels. If you ask me to pick one name as comp I would say Michael Conforto whose career is worthy of a first round draft pick but if that's his ceiling, it's probalby a risk worth taking for an established hitter like Devers.
Jose Bello RHP. DOB: 5/29/2005. 6' 1", 164 lbs.
2025(ACL): 1-0, 2.00, 18 IP, 14 K/9, 1.50 BB/9.
Fangraphs scouting report: "Advanced righty who commands a backend starter's mix. He's very young but isn't an overtly projectable, high-upside prospect. Instead he's more of a high-floored, backend starter type." In other words, he's probably not going to turn into Luis Castillo down the road.
So who wins this trade? Only time will tell but I agree with the McCovey Chronicles Bluesky feed: "My sadness and concerns notwithstanding, the team in the Giants position wins this trade going away 9 times out of 10." And that's even if Devers never takes the field on defense again. Look, young pitchers are young pitchers. Prospects are prospects. Most of even the most promising ones end up with less than average MLB careers. Devers is an established elite hitter who gives the Giants lineup exactly what it desperately needs, a legitimate lefthanded-hitting cleanup hitter whether it's at DH or if they find a position he can and will play. A great bold trade for Buster Posey and I love that he didn't wait around for the trade deadline to make his move.
Buster fleeced the Red Sox on this one. I’m floored the Sox weren’t able to get a better package than this, but the ink is dry so that ain’t our problem!
ReplyDeleteHere are my contributions to the discussion:
Your last paragraph about prospects is key. The amount of top prospects that never pan out or under perform expectations is actually statistically the norm.
Even if Harrison was an established #3 starter, I’d still do this deal. Buster not waiting around to find out if he can hook a real big fish in free agency and risk losing out all together is the aggressive, no-Farhan style the players admire and will fight for - instead he just went out and made it happen behind the scenes with no leaks and pulled a disgruntled star out of the AL East. Anyone worried about the Devers contract and lack of defense should realize that with inflation, we may see a $1billion dollar / 15 year deal by the time his deal ends. Juan Soto, while a better hitter and younger, is being paid more than 2x Devers. Elite, top 10 MLB hitters don’t grow on trees and we now have one for at least a 3-5 year window of his prime.
Andy in SoCal
Looking at what the Giants gave up here:
ReplyDeleteHarrison- looks like he might be good. But still hasn't proved anything. And, with the young guns coming down the pike, we don't really have time to wait. He might turn into something special for the Sox. Maybe not.
Tibbs- might be the next Bryan Reynolds. Might be the next Adam Duvall. Or might be the next Mac Williamson/Wil Wilson. We'll find out in time.
Hicks- most surely will be punted on by the Sox. He won't be missed in SF. Am glad that his ridiculous contact went with him.
Bello? Next, please.
A great pickup by the Giants. Just hope his attitude is a little better with a change of scenery.
When I saw this trade come up on my phone while having lunch with family, it was stunning and reacted "NO WAY"! What little concern I had of Buster , GM ZM, and front office being too cautious and inexperienced, is no longer the case. Buster and the front office doing a great job taking steps to build up the team. This is a great trade for Giants, agree that the team acquiring the star player usually comes out ahead. Example is Dodgers trading for Mookie Betts. Rafael Devers is one of the top 10 hitters in MLB. I try to draft him each year for my fantasy team. Kyle Harrison has the arm to develop into a #3 MLB starter in a rotation. It'll probably take a couple more years to get a better idea as to whether Harrison reaches his potential. Maybe Hicks needed a change of scenery to help his career. Its worth giving up a top pitching prospect like Harrison if you get back a quality hitter like Devers for multiple years. Hopefully he^ll come with a good attitude and not mess with the chemistry this team seems to have.
ReplyDeleteI’m going to be the lone dissenter of this trade. Devers being a hitter only as early as 28 does not bode well for his aging curve.
ReplyDeleteI did not see a lot of surplus value on his 250m dollar contract alone the value of the 3 players sent back.
- Fan
Surplus value is only relevant if your team has a limited payroll. We've had to endure almost endless carping about the Giants ownership being cheap and not willing to compete with the high-payroll teams despite the fact we have not seen a concrete example where that was the case. While I am sure those complaints are not gone forever, they should quiet down for the time being.
DeleteThink David Ortiz
DeleteI totally understand the point about the money, but that doesn't justify why they had to burn the additional prospect capital on-top of it.
DeleteI am just confused why it required such a bundle of prospects to take on what the calculators say is a bad contract.
- Fan
Because Buster saw an opportunity and wasn't going to be beaten to the punch like a certain pencil-necked geek did over and over because he spent too much time worrying about underwater contracts.
DeleteBTW, does anyone else remember Dr Demento?
DeleteWas that a radio show in the 70s? Bay Area, maybe late night KSFO or KFRC?
Delete-mooneyball
I was living in SoCal during the late 70's and Dr Demento was on one of the LA FM rock stations on Sunday evenings. He used to play a song about Pencil-necked Geeks.
DeleteI won't add much more to what has been said, other than to say that I'm guessing that Hicks was unhappy about about being demoted and that Harrison was unhappy about no longer being the young star. I don't know how the exact fielding arrangement is going to work out, since it means that Wilmer returns to first base and shares it with Dominic Smith (I assume that Encarnacion is gone, or at best will be a reserve outfielder). That the Giants have the DH for the future is a remarkable turn of events.
ReplyDeleteI have a feeling in the case of those two non-star players, their feelings about their situations on the team did not play a factor in the trade at all.
DeleteI think you're correct. What I really had in mind was that it is a tribute to Giants leadership that they were able to move two players who at least at this point were not living up to their potential and were likely unhappy with their situation as "non-stars," thereby getting Devers and clearing up some of their own problems at the same time.
DeleteAgree Buster was able to unload a couple of less-than-ideal situations in the deal, especially with Hicks who just didn't work out as a SP. Concern now it is puts some pressure on Verlander to stay healthy and possibly on Carson Whisenhunt to be ready sooner than later. Giants pitching is less deep today than before the trade but getting an impact bat was a bigger priority. Buster will worry about pitching depth then he has to.
DeleteQuick take....All year I wanted Buster to be looking to get a bat or two..He did that in spades..Bold, bold move in getting one of the best bats in the game..for the next 8 years!!!..How it transforms the Giants lineup is crazy...And while I love Harrison, and Tibbs was one of their best OF prospects, you gotta give to get and i have zero problem with the price...
ReplyDeleteWhere he plays is a totally diffefent story...Automatically the best Giant bat, Devers plays every game, plain and simple..First off, If SCHMIIDT joins Chapman on the DL, does Devers step right in at 3B for a bit? But, given a healthy Chapman, who plays 1B and DH? ..Will it just be WIlmer/Smith platooning at 1B and Devers just DHing this year? or does DEVERS step in to become the full time 1B with the platooining at DH? Not a huge concern for this year, they will work it out..
But what about next year? With ELDRIDGE likely ready and only able to play 1B, does DEVERS stay as just a DH for his Giant career? Will he be happy with that? Or does Eldrige leanr to play the OF??? But i guess that is for the off season and next year to think about!
Gonna be so much more fun to watch the lineup now
SteveVA
Doesn't sound like Eldritch has the athletic ability to play OF, he's barely passable at 1B. For that reason I'd love to see Devers be able to transition to 1B perhaps next year, or later this year.
DeleteThere is a reason why Eldridge is playing the minor leagues.
DeleteI echo what almost all above are saying that this is a huge opportunity/win that the Giants took. The deal makes me much more likely to get out to the park. The Giants did not give up that much IMHO. What this trade shows is that Buster cares about the present. On paper, this trade looks great for the next 3 1/2 years. The last 4 years of Devers at $30M not so much. Look, championships won't happen by having a league average bat at every spot in the lineup. Devers gives a bat to be feared by opposing pitchers, he should make those around him better. As the Red Sox come to town next weekend, some dynamic baseball ahead. Go Giants!
ReplyDeleteLast four years of Devers contract don’t look bad at all. Basically takes him through his age 36 season and most sluggers continue to take through that age. Plus 30 million a season really isn’t that much now a days and it will be even less through his last four years of the contract considering how much more money other will make
DeleteI don't see it as a terrible contract even in the last 2-3 years.
DeleteA side benefit (?): Giants don't need to rush Eldridge to the major leagues.
ReplyDeleteAmong other stats, such as HRs and RBIs, Devers leads the Red Sox in walks: who will protect him from being walked whenever there is a threat and an open base?
ReplyDeleteIs Chapman enough?
There are a lot of very smart people who study baseball statistics who will tell you lineup protection doesn't exist. I'm not one of them but I think it's an overrated concept.
DeleteLike Barry, we might see him walked with the bases loaded: bases loaded, 9th inning, lead of 2 — sound familiar?
DeleteI don't think we'll see that happen.
DeleteThe Devers traded spared the Giants from being forced to call up Brett Wisely after Schmitt got hurt
ReplyDeleteCan he play 2B? Turn a DP?
ReplyDeleteUm...no. That is not going to happen.
DeleteA lot of excitement with this trade and agree with a lot of the points people made about it. Based on how the drama unfolded between him and the Red Sox during the offseason, he seems to have a big ego and a "me first" personality, totally contrary to selfless gritty players that Posey seems to want.. Of course, there's probably more to the drama that happened in the background that we fans do not know about.
DeleteI think it's probable the issues between Devers and Red Sox management go deeper than simply him being asked to play 1B and him refusing.
DeleteDevers may have felt uncomfortable playing in the city of Boston.
DeleteSigning a 10-year contract he didn't have to sign would argue against that hypothesis.
DeleteYou are probably right but all it can take is one drunken comment or even wrong intonation to undo a city’s reputation.
DeleteAfter doing some research into Craig Breslow, my theory is Breslow is probably very much of a Farhan/Gabe Kapler "smartest guy in the room" personality. And we all know Giants players openly revolted against that.
DeleteBreslow admitted to some deficiencies in communication and he likes using the word alignment. Sounds like Breslow has a lot of young manager-speak in him. I can see how things unraveled in Boston
DeleteDevers is home-grown and at age 28 probably saw himself as the face of the franchise and then the Sox sign Bregman and move Devers. it was a recipe for a disgruntled employee. yeah he could be more of a team player but there it is. -es
ReplyDeleteAgree. The way it was or wasn't communicated to him by management may make a big difference too.
DeleteMaybe sort of like Brandon Crawford and Carlos Correa?
DeleteLooks almost exactly like Correa/Crawford. The main fault was bad communication.
DeleteThere are so many examples of superstar players being asked to play another position with no qualms being made, e.g. Harper, Tatis, Machado, Mookie. Even players who were known to be divas like Hanley Ramirez and A-Rod went through position changes without issues (at least not publicly known). I have a feeling there's more to the story with everything that went down behind the scenes between Devers and the Red Sox.
ReplyDeleteFrom my reading into Craig Breslow, he seems to give off a lot of Farhan/Kapler "smartest guy in the room" vibes. We all know the Giants players openly revolted against that.
Delete