Thursday, May 15, 2025

Thoughts on Josh Naylor

I meant to include this in yesterday's Game Wrap.  As I watched Josh Naylor over the last three games I got to thinking he would look great in the middle of the Giants lineup.  A legitimate left handed power bat between Adames, Chapman and Flores.  As you all know I don't have much patience for revisiting trades that should or shouldn't have been made and I'm not going to belabor it beyond this post but Naylor sure looks like a missed opportunity for Buster Posey and Zach Minasian.  Yes, he's a 1 year rental before free agency.  Yes, he will probably command way more in free agency than he's worth, AND.....the D'Backs didn't give up a whole lot for him.  I went back and looked up my Hot Stove League Update from that trade and here's what I said at the time:

The Hot Stove is sizzling today.  No sooner had Christian Walker signed with the Astros and Paul Goldschmidt with the Yankees than the D'Backs moved aggressively to fill their hole at 1B with Josh Naylor in a trade with the Guardians.  The DBacks send Slade Cecconi RHP and Competitive Balance Round B draft pick to the Guardians.  

D'Backs get:

Josh Naylor 1B.

2024:  .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 6 SB, 9.2 BB%, 16.6 K%, 633 PA, 2.3 fWAR.

Good hitter, bad body.  Negative defensive metrics drag down his WAR value.  Free Agent next offseason.


Guardians get:

Slade Cecconi RHP.

2024: (AAA):  4-2, 3.06, 47 IP, 10.34 K/9, 2.68 BB/9.
2024(MLB):  2-7, 6.66, 77 IP, 7.48 K/9, 1.99 BB/9.

Former #33 overall draft pick in 2020.  I liked him from my predraft research.  Excellent control but is command within the zone a problem?  He gave up 16 HR in 77 IP.  Maybe was too afraid of walking batters?  Back of rotation pitching option for the Guardians.

Summary:  D'Backs win the trade in the short term but downgrade their defense at 1B and only control Naylor's contract for 1 season.  Cecconi's numbers could well improve with experience.  Naylor would have been an interesting bridge to Bryce Eldridge but I get the feeling Buster Posey is not that into bridge contracts and 1 year rentals.

Then, no sooner had the news sprung on the Naylor trade but the Guardians reunited with Carlos Santana on a 1 yr/$12 M contract.

Carlos Santana 1B/DH:

2024:  .238/.328/.420, 23 HR, 10.9 BB%, 16.7 K%, 594 PA, 3.0 fWAR.

Santana had a solid season for the Twins in 2024 and actually had positive defensive WAR value at age 39.  How much longer can he keep it up?

Summary:  Assuming Josh Naylor was going to leave in free agency, the Guardians may have actually upgraded 1B for 2025 by trading him and signing Santana.  Again the question is how much longer can Santana keep up this level of play?  Santana has also been discussed in blogs as a possible bridge option at 1B for the Giants.  I think Buster has other priorities and is likely to stick with LMWJ and a RH platoon bat for 1B until Bryce Eldridge is ready.

The one thing the D'Backs gave up in the trade the Giants couldn't match was the Competitive Balance Draft pick which the Giants did not possess.  Was that what the Guardians really wanted in the trade?  As I have said several times, those draft picks are not just about getting an extra player in the draft but they come with Bonus Pool money which can be used to upgrade the entire draft.  Otherwise it looks like a deal the Giants could easily have topped for a guy who would be a huge difference maker in their lineup.


2 comments:

  1. In context, back then we were also looking at projecting Encarnacion to a 162 game schedule and I think Encarnacion and Naylor would have been about the same defensively. Naylor has more power and probably slightly better average. As you said, the difference was probably that the Diamondbacks could offer a competitive balance pick and bonus pool money. Since the initial post, three things went wrong: Encarnacion was injured, Wade experienced hitting problems, and Eldridge was injured. If one of those three things went right, we probably would not be revisiting the possible Naylor trade right now.

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    1. I see the advantage of Naylor over Encarnacion is the lefty power which the Giants are woefully short of. I don't think the plan was ever to have Eldridge be a factor at the MLB level this year. The advantage of Naylor over Wade Jr was power. Of course during the Hot Stove League season we didn't know LMWJ's BA and OBP would crater too.

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