Kyle Harrison LHP. DOB: 8/12/2001. 6'2", 200 lbs.
2021(A): 4-3, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 14.32 K%, 4.74 BB%. GB/FB= 1.57.
Kyle Harrison was the Giants third round draft pick in 2020, but got late first round money as the Giants scraped together enough money from below-slot bonuses elsewhere to give him a $2.5 M signing bonus. His pro debut made that look like a smart allocation of bonus dollars as he dominated the Cal League at age 19. His FB, which was reported to be in the low 90's in HS ticked up to a reported 93-98 MPH and was backed up by a slider and changeup. That arsenal enabled him to strike out 1.5 batters per inning. Couple the K's with a strong groundball tendency is generally considered the holy grail of pitching.
He's got a strong frame with features reminiscent of Logan Webb. Fangraphs describes him as having a "noticeably strong lower half, which he uses to get low to the ground and push off the mound for a monstrous lunge toward home plate." In fact, you can think of him as being roughly a mirror image of Logan Webb! On video, the delivery looks pretty violent to me with the lunge creating a sudden acceleration with a sudden deceleration and significant recoil at the finish. That violence may explain a higher walk rate than ideal, something to watch going forward.
Let's take a look at a couple of comp seasons:
Madison Bumgarner LHP:
2008(Age 18)(A): 15-3, 1.46, 141.2 IP, 10.42 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.07. Bumgarner was a year younger, had a lower K rate, a neutral GB tendency, but a much better BB/9. The Cal league tends to favor hitters much more than the Sally. Bum made his MLB debut late the next season at age 19, came up for good midseason 2010 and won a WS game that year.
Logan Webb RHP:
2016(Age 19)(A): 2-3, 6.21, 42 IP, 6.43 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, GB/FB= 2.03. Webb had two short seasons of pro development before his age 19 A season which ended prematurely due to Tommy John surgery. Although he pitched in 2017, the surgery obviously set his development back by a couple of years and he did not make his MLB debut until 2019. He did not reach double digit K/9's until later in his pro career.
Matt Cain RHP:
2003(Age 18)(A): 4-4, 2.55, 74 IP, 10.95 K/9, 2.92 BB/9. Cainer made his MLB debut late 2005 at age 20 and never looked back.
In summary, Kyle Harrison comps favorably to 3 ace or near-ace level pitchers in relatively recent Giants history two of whom moved fast through the system. Command issues may slow his MLB ETA and I worry about injury risk with the violent delivery.
Doc, great work as always. Appreciate the time you put in for these. Don’t post much, but check in every day for updates.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the kind words.
DeleteThanks for keeping your blog going with interesting posts about Giants prospects. I'm interested to follow the progress of some of their recent pitching draftees like Harrison, Bedner, Mikulski, Swinney, and others. It coincides with the Giants hiring Brian Bridges as a national crosschecker in 2019 who is well known as a good pitching scout, and is given a lot of credit for the young pitching talent currently with the Braves. I've wondered why the Giants haven't developed good starting pitching lately until Logan Webb, has it been due to poor drafting or poor development?
ReplyDeleteI think it's become quite clear there was a disconnect between the Giants scouting and development arms which probably happened when John Barr became scouting director and Dick Tidrow became more involved in the development side. Both Chris Stratton and Tyler Beede were 4-seam/curveball dudes in college. The first thing the Giants did with both was try to convert them into 2-seam/slider guys which collided head on with the launch angle revolution. No way that happens in the FZ regime. So, I'm going to say it was mainly a development problem or at least a disconnect between the scouting and development sides of the organization.
DeleteMaybe not Tidrow. He drafted Cain, Timmy and Bum and they were all 4-seam guys and continued to be in the pros, but I definitely remember reading lots of comments about them trying to change Stratton and Beede's approach to more two-seam/slider or cutter.
DeleteI watched Harrison pitch a couple times last year when the San Jose Giants traveled to Fresno to play the Grizzlies. He certainly has a "noticeably strong lower half" which I think means he is thick and solid, which he is. He can obviously command his pitches for strikes, but can also miss with 3 or 4 in a row, hence the high walk rate. I presume the pitching gurus for the Giants will work with him on this. I don't see him moving through the system as quickly as Cain or Bum, but they were both unique generational talents. I am excited to see him progress and hopefully he will be joined by some of the recently drafted college pitchers to form the next wave of home-grown talent. APGiantsfan
ReplyDeleteI heard Krukow say on the morning KNBR show that he thought Kyle Harrison could get called up to the Giants this year. Not so sure about that, lots of pieces would have to fall in place. It would be exciting to see.
ReplyDeleteI would say there is an outside chance of Harrison making his MLB debut late this season but limits on September roster size make that more of a longshot than in past years. Most likely he earliest projected ETA is midseason 2023.
DeleteLincecum, Bumgarner, and to a slightly lesser extent if I remember correctly, Cain - all dominated the minors so thoroughly, and with each having 2 put-out pitches (FB for all 3 + Lincecum changeup & curve + Bumgarner slider + Cain all four pitches = above average) these guys were capable of coming right to the Majors and using those weapons to demoralize hitters.
DeleteI also think Harrison takes a longer rout to the Majors, and I'm glad. Would love to see him get that BB/9 under control at which point the sky would be the limit.