A perfect lead-in to this post came today via Kevin Gausman's Twitter account. He says the Giants never made him an offer. OK, I actually wasn't necessarily under the impression the Giants did make him an offer, but apparently some folks did and Kev is settin' the record straight. From this bit of information, I think it's fairly safe to conclude the Giants knew what Gausman's market was, weren't comfortable with it and did not want to insult him with what they wanted to pay for whatever reason. Maybe they are totally against any and all 9 figure contracts or maybe Gausman's second half performance made them think he is not worth that much even if some other pitcher might be.
That brings us to the idea that if the Giants weren't interested in signing Kevin Gausman after he resurrected his career in SF, they might well be interested in signing someone who could replicate what Gausman did in his two seasons in SF, which is pitch himself from being nearly out of a baseball job into a 9 figure contract, albeit with some other team. My job here it to convince you, and maybe FZ, that pitcher is Carlos Martinez.
Carlos Martinez RHP. DOB: 9/21/1990. 6' 0", 200 lbs.
2021(Cardinals): 4-9, 6.23, 82.1 IP, 6.23 K'9, 3.94 BB/9, 50.2 GB%, 4.75 FIP.
Except for the GB% that is a terrible line, no doubt. But the GB% is elite, one of the highest in MLB and the Giants seem to like GB pitchers which makes sense when you have a GG shortstop and a near GG 3B picking it in the IF. I took a look at Martinez' Game Logs. What I found was 7 QS out of 16. That projects to 14 over a full season of 32 Starts(Martinez' season ended with a torn thumb ligament on July 4). There were only 30 pitchers in all of MLB with more than 14 QS. Logan Webb had 14 QS in 2021. Martinez had two disaster starts in which he gave up a total of 18 ER in 3.2 IP. If you take out those two starts, his ERA for the remaining 78.2 IP is 4.46. not great, but not terrible either.
Per Fangraphs, Carlos Martinez threw 5 types of pitches in 2021. All were right around average in quality. I could be interpreting the headings wrong but it looks like the Cut Fastball was his worse pitch and he threw it 22% of the time. Pitchers do not need to throw 5 different pitches and the Giants coaching staff are known to be good at identifying pitches to drop. They are also known to be good at improving the effectiveness of already good pitches. Fangraphs also shows solid FB velocity at 93.8 average MPH.
Carlos Martinez is already significantly better than his pitching line would indicate. He's been an elite pitcher in the past. MLBTR does not list him as even Honorable Mention in their top 50 FA's which means his signing price should be around 1 yr/$5 M. He will undoubtedly be looking to replicate Gausman's career resurrection with some team and what team is more likely to help him get there than the Giants?
Would be worth the gamble.
ReplyDeleteGood analysis - FZ pick him up! I like Sonny Gray and Sean Manaea from the trade options you listed as well.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your assessment of the Giants and the "no offer" status to Gausman. Let's look at recent big money decisions for starting pitchers for the Giants:
ReplyDeleteNot signing Bumgarner looks pretty good right now.
The Cueto signing did not pay off mainly due to injuries.
Smardzija signing was not great.
I would want to know more about the torn ligament in Carlos Martinez' thumb. seems like a crucial part of the pitching hand, with the release of the ball. I looked and Martinez has pitched 3 innings in winter ball (this year) and given up 4 ER for the Aquilas Cibaenas.
You've gotten my attention! Nice info.
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