Saturday, September 27, 2014

Thoughts on Yasmany Tomas

Right now, the fastest and easiest way for MLB team to dramatically upgrade their talent is to sign a player who has defected from Cuba.  There are several reasons for this:  1.  Teams do not have to wait their turn in a draft cue to sign them.  2.  If they have a certain number of years of experience in Cuban baseball, they are not subject to the spending limitations of other international free agents.  3.  The MLB free agent market has all but dried up leaving very few impact FA's available from year to year.  4.  There have been enough signings of Cuban players now to know that worries about level of competition were probably unfounded.  These guys are ready to play right away, for the most part.

The latest Cuban defector to come available, or at least soon be available, is OF Yasmany Tomas.  Tomas has played CF in Cuba, but has a relatively short, heavy body type that projects more as a corner OF, probably LF.  There are a couple of videos available of Tomas on Youtube(I don't have a link, but they are very easy to find if you just go to Youtube and search his name) including one of a moonshot HR he hit against an asian team in international competition.

I made a comment awhile back that I see a very quick, short, powerful swing without much, if any extra movement in it.  With the body type and the position he plays, my comp was Kevin Mitchell, a former Giants LF who hit a few HR's in his day.  Although the body type is not exciting, I assume that if he played CF in Cuba, he has enough tools to play LF in MLB.  Beyond that, you are looking at a player for his bat and not much else.  I think the bat has a chance to be special.

Kiley McDaniel, of Fangraphs, wrote up a scouting report on Tomas on 9/25/2014 entitled Scouting Yasmany Tomas that largely agrees with what I have said about him in prior comments.  Kiley posted some video from a relatively recent international tournament which demonstrates his swing mechanics quite well, but also shows him looking heavy and slow.  Like other recent Cuban FA's, he has reportedly gotten himself into the Best Shape of His Life and looks much better now.  If you look up the Fangraphs article, be sure to scroll down into the Comments to find an in-depth analysis of Tomas' swing in answer to a questioner who thought his hands looked slow.  Here is the key paragraph that explains what I see, but does a much better job of explaining than I:

"Tomas generates above average bat speed, but doesn't load his hands as far back as most sluggers.  Almost all power hitters load their hands(maximum distance from contact) about as far back as possible….and Tomas does not do this.  This means he has the power and bat speed of a big time power hitter with the short path of a contact hitter."  Now, I have to confess that differences in bat speed through the strike zone are a very tough for me to see, but I completely agree with Kiley's description of Tomas load mechanism compared to most power hitters.  Think Joe Panik with light tower power!

Now, none of this guarantees Tomas success in MLB.  Swing mechanics is only part of the equation.  I would describe Angel Villalona's swing mechanics in similar terms, but pitch recognition and strike zone discipline have held Angel V back big time.  In the tournament where the video on Fangraphs was filmed, Tomas faced elite U.S. amateur pitchers, many of whom were eventual first round draft picks and did not fare well, generating just 3 singles and a ton of K's against them.  Of course, he also appeared to be out of shape at the time, which BTW raises other questions about his long term value.  Still, the swing mechanics combined with the track records of other Cuban players is enough to convince me that Tomas' bat is for real.

It just so happens that Tomas projects to a position, LF, that the Giants desperately need to upgrade for next season.  It also happens that the Giants have shown serious interest in other Cuban FA's such as Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo reportedly coming in second in the bidding for both.  It may or may not be relevant information that Tomas is represented by Jay Alou, who obviously has family ties to the Giants organization, and Tomas recent workout was held at the Giants Dominican baseball academy, although attended by over 100 scouts and MLB execs.

I don't know how far the Giants are willing to go to sign one of these talented Cuban FA's.  So far, their strategy seems to have been to make a strong offer, but not get involved in a bidding war.  Now, I am not one of those guys who presumes to know more about the Giants financial situation than they do, or at least what the Giants SAY their situation is.  If they don't have the money to sign another big, longterm contract, then so be it.  So far it is hard to take too much issue with the way the Giants go about their business.  Their reported behavior in the Abreu and Castillo cases would suggest that there is money in the pot to spend on the right player. I will say this:  Based on everything I know about Yasmany Tomas, if they are going to spend big on a Cuban FA, or any FA for that matter, Tomas is a guy who I think the money would be well spent on.

27 comments:

  1. Was wondering when you were going to weigh in on Tomas! Personally, I hope the Giants sign him if they think he's a good get. I trust the Giants scouts, as they correctly determined Carbonell was solid. And to me, this season (while not over) really is one where we've managed to reload without having to rebuild.

    We've added a great 2b, a critical utility guy (no worse) in Duffy and an exceptional back up catcher. Even if Belt isn't able to stay healthy, I'm very comfortable with our infield other than 3b if Posey needs to go to 1b and Susac starting as catcher (at that point, we have other guys--maybe Sanchez--who can be solid backups). Even if we move Duffy to 3b (if he's capable), then you have Arias and EA as back ups. The need for someone to spell Crawford is critical, even if not a great bat, just to allow Crawford to be rested and we have the guys on the roster for that position this year when we really didn't at the start of the year.

    Having said that, our holes at 3b (if not Duffy), LF and CF back up is troubling. I think the last one is the one that hurts the most as we've seen the team tanking with Pagan's injuries. I am very hopeful, though, that Carbonell fixes that. The only way he doesn't make the team (IMO) is if they want to keep him at AAA for at bats, but given the lack of depth, Pagan's need for rest, etc., I think they give him a shot if he can handle the pitching in spring ball.

    So that leaves two positions. Tomas would be an immediate fill of LF if he's ready. I don't mind spending the money at this juncture if he's young and will be with us for a while. We have expiring contracts (Panda and Morris this year, Scutaro, Timmy and Hudson next year, Pagan the following) so we can afford it. Plus, we are plugging key holes with home growns that helps manage the payroll--despite the ragging on the farm system, it is very likely we have a team next year where 4 of our 8 position starters are home growns, 2 of our SPs and I think probably half the pen (assuming Timmy goes to RP as the long reliever). That's better than a lot of teams. If we are able to get a solid bat there, then we can decide whether we want to take a risk on a less power bat (Duffy) at 3b, so there are other dividends. I think a roster of these position players would be awesome:

    Pagan
    Panik
    Pence
    Posey
    Belt
    Tomas
    Crawford
    Duffy

    With back ups Susac, Arias, EA, Carbonell +1 OF (maybe Perez as a place holder for Horan or Parker).

    SPs: MadBum, Peavy, Cain, Hudson +1 (Petit v. Tiimmy here, with the long guy the loser)
    RPs: Long, Cordier, Strickland, Casilla, Machi, Lopez and Affledt (with Osich in AAA to be ready).

    That to me is a very balanced team and the only noticeable weak point is our 5th starter, and we'd have several guys in AAA (Blackburn, Blach, Fleet and Crick) hopefully tuning up. In two years, those guys step in for Timmy and Hudson (at a minimum).

    In terms of short and long term financial health, we're in really good shape and Tomas really fills the noticeable gap.

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    1. Maybe I am greedy or just conservative, but I like a potential #1 or 2# starter to start his career in the #4 or #5 spot.

      So, my (relatively possible) ideal - I have other less realistic dreams - would be Madison, Peavy, Hudson, (Machi/Vogelsong and some young stud), with the bonus of Cain coming back strong.

      Can we do it? Do we have the major-league-ready internal young ace? Do we have the money? I don't know.

      BTW, PiLamBear, who is Long? Do you mean Law?

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  2. Reason 5. No loss of compensatory draft pick for foreign FA signing.

    re: 3B, does Susac have tools to play there? Sandoval was a catcher converted to 3B ,,,,,,

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    1. To me, Susac looks too big and ponderous to play 3B, but what do I know?

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    2. he is probably more valuable as a catcher - but they say Giants have a few good catchers in the minors, more good catchers than 3B men …

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  3. Dr.B, how do they compare: Cespedes, Puig, Abreu, Castillo and Tomas?

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    1. Cespedes and Puig are more of the 5-tool variety players. Castillo has a chance to be a player like that. Abreu is an all-bat player, and a great one at that. As he has shown this year, he's got more power than most players could ever dream of. Most of the reports on Tomas are calling his power 70-grade, but there are questions about his hit tool. There were similar questions about Abreu's hit tool, and he busted out a .314/.379/.574 line his rookie year...

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    2. Thanks, both of you.

      I am not familiar with the power grade. Is that 70 out of 100?

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    3. 70 on a scale of 20-80. Don't ask me where the 20-80 scale comes from. It's just the standard scouting scale.

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  4. Outside of Pagan staying healthy for a whole year, I can't see any faster/better/cheaper way to improve the offense than getting a Cuban. Tomas seems to fit LF, great. Forget Panda, pay the Cuban!

    I see Gary Brown in CF today, we will find out something.

    All AAA/backups team today, this is fun.

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    1. Brown's speed definitely played today, as did his range in CF. I'm sorry, but he should totally be on the playoff roster over Perez. The Giants are short on outfielders at the moment, so you'd think one of those two would HAVE to make it!

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    2. i hope brown makes the roster also … and that he starts tomorrow as well
      considering how cold Perez has been and that Brown is acknowledged to be a better defender and
      perhaps the best CF defensively in the organization - he has a shot. why would management select
      Perez over Brown?

      i do not want to see Dominguez selected over Brown either …

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  5. I don't understand why you think Giants will sign Tomas. Just leads to more disappointment when they don't sign him. You have a Jay Alou connection and a workout at Giants complex...Giants strategy will be to make a good offer, but not good enough. Trust me I want Tomas and whatever it takes money wise to sign him. I just don't like talking about it until after he is signed with Giants. Until then I will be doubtful. Giants are kings of due diligence. Normally they sign guys who we think that aren't in on.

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    1. Please point out in my post where I said I think the Giants are going to sign Tomas.

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  6. You DIDN'T say you think the Giants will sign him and that was a mistake on my part for assuming you did after reading your post. My mistake.

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  7. We have always been cool! And your blog is COOL!

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  8. I'd have to think it's either Tomas or Panda. I'm not sure when the signing period will begin with Tomas, but if it's before Panda can be resigned, I imagine they'll make an offer. If he bites and he becomes a Giant, Sabes will offer Panda the minimum required to net us a compensatory draft pick...and, fingers crossed, maybe he'll take it. Most likely not, though. If Tomas doesn't sign, they have to get Panda back.

    If I had to choose between the two, I'd pick Sandoval. In my opinion, left field will be easier to fill (whether it be a position change for Belt or a platoon of sorts) from within.

    Lucky

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    1. I know I am in the minority on this, but I do not see Tomas and Sandoval as linked. The fact, if true, that the Giants made serious offers to Abreu and Castillo suggests to me that there is a pot of money that is not tied to Pablo's re-signing. I think the Giants have their price on Sandoval and aren't going to budge. I believe that means he's going to sign with another team who will offer significantly more.

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  9. Somebody else probably wants Tomas just as bad as the Giants (see Abreu & Castillo) and Sabes draws a line in the sand as he does with Sandoval. So both players sign at St. Elsewhere.

    How about working a trade for Leonys Martin of the Rangers? He's Cuban and has a friendly deal. His offense rates slightly below average production but is trending in the right direction and moving into the prime age bracket. HIs defense rates very well and he swipes bags. An infusion of speed and defense could help the Giants more than an infusion of power. Can't really expect Angel Pagan to stay on the field and it would probably be advisable to push him to left at some point.

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    1. ...and besides, if Giants commit big money to left field, where are they going to play Belt when Posey plays 40+ games at first.

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    2. I don't think the Rangers would trade Martin, but I do expect a big shakeup down in Texas, so I suppose anything is possible. Belt will sit on the bench when Posey plays 1B(I think you threw that in there just to annoy me, right?).

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    3. I do agree that if the Giants really want one of these high-profile Cuban players, they are going to have to do a little bidding.

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  10. Yasmany Tomas!

    And another thing: He's young, so going up to 8 years or something crazy buys his peak years not his mid-thirties decline.

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    1. Agreed, although he may have similar body issues to Pablo and the Giants don't seem to want to go a day over 3 years with him.

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