The Giants have a certain reputation for drafting, signing and developing prospects who, while sometimes successful, do not adhere to classic statistical thought of how to be a successful hitter. In short, they have had a lot of kids come through their system who swing a lot, strike out a lot and not take many walks. In even shorter terms, hackers. Nate Schierholtz, Lance Niekro, Brett Pill, Francisco Peguero, Gary Brown, even the successful ones like Pablo Sandoval tended to hack a lot! Buster Posey was the big exception, but Buster Posey was close to a no-brainer pick high in the first round.
Then with pick #29 in the first round of the 2014 draft, the Giants took Joe Panik. The commentators on MLB Network did not have him on their draft boards. Bud Selig mispronounced his name. The Commentators shrugged and said, "well, the Giants do what they want to do!" ESPN analyst Keith Law criticized the pick heavily. But, Joe Panik was not a typical Giants hitting draftee. If you looked closely at his college stat lines, he was an unusually disciplined hitter:
2009: .332/.426/.513
2010: .374/.477/.621
2011: .398/.509/.642
While the walk rates were strong, what you don't see in the stat line was a strongly reversed K/BB. Most hitters strike out more than they walk, some by a large margin. While hitters with reversed ratios are not rare in college baseball, a ratio of almost 1/2 is. Panik had almost twice as many BB's as K's.
Panik signed immediately, again unusual for a first round draft pick, and was assigned to Salem-Keizer, the more advanced of the two short season leagues the Giants have affiliates in. He raked the league going .341/.401/.467. He had 28 BB's and 25 K's in 270 AB, not quite a 1/2 ratio, but reversed ratios are exceedingly rare in pro ball.
He was promoted to High A San Jose for 2012, a moderately aggressive placement. He stumbled in mid-season but finished strong and ended up with a .297/.368/.401 line. Again he had that slightly reversed K/BB with 54/58.
Joe was invited to spring training in 2013, but suffered an early hamstring strain that would plague him until almost mid-season, a little know fact about his 2013 AA season. He struggled to a .257/.333/.347 line. He struck out more than he walked, but just barely with 68 K's against 58 BB's in 522 AB's. It should also be noted that his 27 doubles and 4 triples were exactly the same as the number he hit with San Jose. He hit 3 fewer HR's, but mostly hit a lot fewer singles suggesting an element of BABIP bad luck. When park and league factors were included he actually hit about as well as he did in San Jose the year before.
In 2014, a fully healthy Joe Panik again raked the PCL for AAA Fresno to a slash line of .321/.382/.447 and continued to show that excellent K/BB of 33/27. He has pretty much continued that line at the MLB level.
If you dig deeper into Panik's plate discipline, you find some interesting numbers in how he handles pitches in and out of the strike zone. He swings at 26% of pitches outside the strike zone which is one of the lower numbers among Giants hitters. He swings at about 60% of pitches within the strike zone which is also one of the lower numbers. He is judicious with his swings! The one number that really jumps out at you, though is his contact rate on pitches swung at inside the strike zone, 94%, the highest among Giants hitters with 100 PA's or more! When he swings at a strike, he is going to make contact! His overall swing an miss percentage is right at 5% which is one of the lowest on the team. We don't have those numbers from the minor leagues, but his similar K and BB rates would suggest they are not much different.
Lastly, is the drafting and development of Joe Panik by the Giants an anomaly or does it represent a shift in philosophy? The Giants have accumulated several other hitters in the system with similar plate discipline profiles, and many of those hitters are doing quite well including Matt Duffy, Andrew Susac, Christian Arroyo and Ben Turner are a few hitters in the system showing similar K and BB tendencies, although there are still a fair share who like to hack away. Brian Sabean is a guy who tends to go back to what has worked. With the success of Joe Panik and other contact oriented prospects in the system, it will be interesting to see if Sabes goes back to that well more in the future.
Nice write up and great summary of the FG piece. I'd say Duffy and Blake Miller seem next in line for middle infielders with strong hit tools, Duffy seemingly with more patience. Arroyo seems to be more of a hack as he has some relatively low walk rates. Not sure how well that bodes for him, but is cause for concern unless he goes the Freddy Sanchez route to MLB stardom. Duffy looking MLB capable and Miller seems to be following in his footsteps.
ReplyDeleteArroyo's numbers:
Delete2013 Rookie AZL 9.1% BB, 15.3% K
2014 Low A 3.2% BB, 17.6% K
2014 Short Season 6.7% BB, 11.6% K
August is the outlier and even there his K rate was under 20%. Sometime for fun, you might go to Fangraphs and look up how many prospects, or even major leaguers for that matter, have K rates under 20%. It's not all that many. Remember, there are lots of players with BB rates higher than Panik's. It's keeping the K rates down and the K/BB that really stands out about him.
…er Augusta is the outlier….
DeleteRight, thank you for posting the numbers.
DeleteWhat can I say? I'd like to see higher walk rates. May be aggressive early in the count. Contact hitters that are aggressive early in the count will have low K rates.
I am aware of the 20% line. With the strikeout epidemic in the league, the average has gone over this.
Brett Pill was not a high strike out guy - mostly because he was aggressive early in the count.
Go read the piece in Fangraphs on Panik. He talks about looking for fastballs and swinging early in the count to avoid 2 strikes because that is when the breaking balls tend to come out.
DeleteAgain, Panik is not a huge walk guy. It's his limitation of K's that combined with a good but not great walk rate that is his signature pattern.
If you watch Panik hit, it's pretty clear he is not up there trying to work walks. He's up there looking for a good pitch to hit.
Good post. Thanks! Would you say that Arroyo is cast in the same mold?
ReplyDeleteStill early, but yes, I think Arroyo is a similar type hitter.
DeleteAt your direction I read the Sarris article. A fan there brought up the comparison to Mueller. I will add another name to the mix: Kevin Seitzer. Both of those players had career averages above .290, solid major league hitters. (note they were selected in the 11th and 15th rounds of the draft, where some critics felt Panik belonged).
ReplyDeleteWould love to hear Giants front office discuss Arroyo selection in light of Panik. Each a late first round pick, each a (non-athletic) SS with a good eye and consistent hitting stroke. Each likely to convert to 2B.
What was the thought? Draft two similar players in the hopes that one pans out as the 2B solution? And now that it appears that Panik will stick what will happen to Arroyo? And for that matter Duffy, Blake Miller, Adrianza, and the rest of the top minor league middle infielders?
I would not be surprised if one day Crawford were traded (if the return piece was strong) and one of the other young infielders joins Panik in the infield.
I believe draft picks are made in close to a vacuum as far as future MLB team needs go. If they think a shortstop is the best player available 5 years in a row, they will draft 5 SS's in a row and sort it out later.
DeleteLooked up Mueller and Seitzer. I would say those comps are right on the money. Muller put up a 23.5 WAR in 11 seasons while Seitzer put up 26.7 in 12 seasons. You get that out of a #29 overall pick and you've done good.
DeleteHopefully, years from now we can say the same thing about Posey and Susac … a lot of lively debate as you know about how that pans out. Certainly looks like Susac is starter material and not merely a MLB bench player.
DeleteI grew up watching the Dodgers call up all those home grown stars - and let's not even count all of the Dodgers that made ROY (many of whom were flashes in the pan I might add). Could this be the Golden Age for the Giants organization in developing position players? Are we on the cusp of developing MLB talent at the position player level? is the drought over? The time for ridicule and sneering over? Will Panik and Susac and others (Horan et. al) join Posey and Belt and Crawford (I hesitate to say Sandoval because he could be leaving …) as home grown MLB starters? I would like to think so …
Joe Panik is making Sabean and the Giants Brass look pretty smart right now. Good business and successful people identify a market inefficiency and take the risk to capitalize on it while the demand is low or non-existent. I think that the Giants management saw that strikeout rates have become astronomical along with decreasing power numbers without PEDs that they needed to find a better plan. Their plan was simple and focused on finding more hitters like Buster Posey. Buster is a professional hitter that displays bat control and keeps his K:BB ratio better than 1:2. Where it is difficult to find hitters like this with power (Pujols and Posey) unless you want to pay out the nose via top 10 draft pick or mega contracts, they decided to look for precursors to this profile. They are looking to draft hitters that control the zone, even if they don't show power when they are selected. The hope is that they can find a guy that grows into his body and that his power develops while keeping his approach.
ReplyDeleteUsing this approach, I think the Giants will continue to "overdraft" according to the draft "experts" because they like to zig when the rest of the industry is zagging. I really have to applaud the Giants for giving Sabean a chance to reinvent himself after all those Barry Bonds years. He has earned enough good will to take some risks or WTF picks that may not be entirely understood on draft day, but becomes more clear after. It appears that Sabean's goal is to have a longer lineup that does not struggle to make contact. I think he still remembers how frustrating and deflating getting beat by guys like David Eckstein, Mark Ellis and Adam Kennedy can be to another team's psyche. Just by being an annoyance and not getting themselves out very often, these types of players can really wear out opposing pitchers focus and then leave a cookie in the hit zone. I think a great lineup for AT&T park consists of a long lineup that consists of players that can hit close to .300 with average pop from 10-15 HRs while limiting strikeouts.
Bravo Giants brass.
my two cents
This is also the profile that they found in Scutaro. Perhaps it's the profile they searched for, given the pattern we now see among recent draftees.
DeleteI think that would be a great lineup for many parks.
DeleteAgreed. Clint, that post is worth at least $1.00!
DeleteSabean wouldn't know a market inefficiency if it slapped him in the face, and there is probably nothing wrong with that. Posey's K:BB has only once been 1:2, normally it is close to 1:1. Sabean always treated minor leaguers as ways to get veteran players, so they only had to be good enough to look good to another team when that team needed salary relief (which is has worked, the SFG have been a very competitive team for years because of it). Sabean could care less what the talking heads think, he knows the only opinion that matters is the one inside the industry and if you believe what he says, the SFG systems is fine based on all the request he got for their minor leaguers. If anyone deserves credit for a change it is Bobby Evans and John Barr, it is under their watch that the system has produced MLBers. BuyLowSellLower is correct and it isn't a realistic way to build a team because there aren't enough guys like that to go around. Despite what Billy Beane tries, there are only a few ways to build a WS winning team and the SFG org may have finally learned this.
DeleteI completely disagree with you about Sabean and market inefficiencies. He's been seeking them out his entire career. It's just that he doesn't brag about it and the sabermetric writers don't recognize it because they are so busy writing and talking about the market inefficiency du jour which is often already run it's course and become overvalued. What about signing aging vets on the cheap who only have a year or two left in the tank? That's a market inefficiency! What about outfielders who cover a lot of ground but might not hit like a classic corner OF? That's a market inefficiency Sabes was fishing in long before Fangraphs discovered UZR. What about lefty relievers? Fangraphs may think they are worthless. Sabes sees them as a value that other people think are worthless. That is a market inefficiency!
DeleteDon't try to tell me that Brian Sabean does not know anything about market inefficiencies!
We are looking at different sides of the same coin.
DeleteWhile season isn't over, I do have to wonder what happens to SS next year. You have Crawford (who at times is a super star, but seems to be up and down), EA (who has potential to be better, but we've not seen it yet because of injuries), Panik/Duffy (could Panik move back to SS if Duffy takes 2b?). You also only spot for one platoon guy, with Arias under contract, but we could put Duffy at AAA and have EA on the roster. Good problem to have but interesting nonetheless.
ReplyDeletePanik / Arroyo: two no. 1 SS picks. Then Duffy and other deep draft picks doing well in the minors. It does make one wonder. Add Crawford stumbles and anything is possible.
DeleteWhat's interesting though about Panik and Arroyo, they were drafted at SS but both have questions regarding their ability to ultimately field that position. I think it may be more of a shift in philosophy regarding approach at the plate then loading up on shortstops. I still think they value defense at that position and a guy like Ehire would have the inside track for that IMO.
ReplyDeleteYou are probably right, few people expected either on to stick at SS and Ehire wouldn't have been given the few chances this year (before he got hurt) if they didn't value defense at SS. I suspect that Arroyo will continue to play there even if he shows he can't handle it to keep him mentally right when it comes to batting as he move up. Eventually, there will come a level at which his batting can't overcome his lack of range and he'll have to move to second. After that he will reach max value when his batting has peaked and he has become comfortable at second base and if there is no spot for him in the bigs, then it is only fair to make him trade bait.
DeleteAs for Ehire, it will be really interesting to see what happens to him this off season. Some people don't think the Giants can hide him. If that is the case, the brass missed an opportunity to trade him, albeit at a low price since he has no more options and has never shown much hit tool. OTH, the market seems to say he isn't of much value, so it probably isn't a big loss if they can't keep him. I thought the Giants weren't good enough to be giving him a roster spot this year and that the Giants have had plenty of time to analyze batting, but it hasn't cost them yet.
I suspect that the Evans and Barr are traditionalist that want power on the corners and high contact up the middle and value anything that works better in AT&T.
I was curious on Marco Scutaro and retirement. If he can no longer perform baseball duties can he be forced to retire? I am sure we will be on the hook for his salary next year but is there any loophole where we aren't? We usually do not have this problem and it is usually due to the player's performance where we release, DFA, etc.
ReplyDeleteI do not believe Scutaro can be forced to retire.
DeleteDoc, do you think if Scutaro gets enough rest and is healthier next year, that he has value as a spot starter against nasty lefties when Panik needs a rest and as a RH bat off the bench?
DeleteI could see a possible lineup of:
LF ? (with Morse a FA this is a ? for now)
CF Pagan
RF Pence
4th OF: Blanco (or Brown if he shows something, or a FA)
1st: Belt
2nd: Panik
SS: Crawford (or EA if he shows something in spring)
3rd: Sandoval (I see the Giants biting the bullet and throwing $$ to keep Panda, there are no other FA 3rd basemen, he's still got potential to get better, and he's a homegrown player and marketing dream who is great in the clubhouse)
INF: Ishikawa
INF: Scutaro
INF: Duffy
INF: EA
Catcher: Posey
Backup: Susac
That is 14, which only leaves 11 spots for pitching, so there would probably need to be some tweaks. Since Duffy and Belt both have the ability to play a little OF, I only have the Giants with 4 official outfielders.
I also wonder, with Susac's emergence, if the Giants will ask/suggest that Posey moves to 1B, and then Belt could fill the hole in LF in-house. I know Posey wants to stay at catcher, but with the splits and for his long-term health/career, I wonder if the Giants gently (not so gently?) push him towards 1B.
It seems unlikely that Marco Scutaro is going to play again.
DeleteIt's great that Giants did something that they aren't known for finding hitters. We have forgotten what the Giants have been great at...drafting/finding STARTING PITCHING!!! Next season could potentially have 2 spots open. Any guys in minors who could hold down a spot? I'd say no to Heston, Kickham, and Petit. None of the minor league starting pitchers have taken a step forward. We have seen our prospect hitters Susac, Panik, Miller, and etc make strides forward. Panik looks great at 2nd. Carbonell looks great for me in LF. Resign Panda. 2 open spots in rotation and I hope Dick Tidrow has one prospect ready.
ReplyDeleteExcellent write up Doc. Panik's been a big part of the team's resurgence. I was among those who thought he was an overdraft but been encouraged by his development in the minors and he's proving all the doubters wrong. All these draft "experts" thought he would amount to nothing more than a "solid utility player." Great story and hope he can keep it up during this stretch run.
ReplyDeleteMinor typo. You accidentally wrote down 2014 draft instead of 2011. Keep up the great work.