Spring Training Update: Still A Quiet Spring

Not much new to report here and that's a very good thing.  

Tom Murphy C's oblique is still hurting him.  Melvin's quote:  He had an uncomfortable night.  Doesn't sound like baseball activity is in his near future.

Tyler Fitzgerald 2B is feeling better and has started baseball activity.

Landon Roupp RHP was named starter of the first exhibition game vs the Rangers in Surprise. He is scheduled to work 2 innings which seems pretty significant.

Heliot Ramos OF impressed everybody with a live batting practice HR off the scoreboard in LF off Justin Verlander RHP.

Memba Alexander Canario OF?  He was just DFA'd by the Cubs to make room on their 40-man roster for Justin Turner 3B/1B/DH.  We are getting close to being able to close the books on the Giants trade to acquire Kris Bryant 3B/OF in 2021.  Caleb Killian RHP was the other Giants prospect going to the Cubs. He has pitched fairly well in the minor leagues but has failed to impress in 3 small samples at the MLB level.  The Giants made a great run in 2021 but fell just short.  Bryant contributed to that effort.  It was a trade worth making.  It was also the right decision to let him go in free agency.  He has been mostly terrible for the Rockies who are stuck with a 7 yr/$182 M contract.

Spring Training Update: Burning Questions

 The Giants enter the spring training exhibition season with surprisingly few positional uncertainties.  The starting players for all eight postions appear to be set.  At least 4 of the 5 SP's seem set as well as 7 RP's.  That leaves just up to 5 reserve positions including DH, 1 SP and 1 RP for the rest of the roster to compete for.  So where are the question marks? 

Will everybody remain in The Best Shape Of Their Life through the end of spring training?  The biggest health question marks as we approach live games are in no particular order Tom Murphy C(already in the training room), Wilmer Flores 1B/DH, Jung Hoo Lee CF, Mike Yastrzemski OF, Justin Verlander SP, Robbie Ray SP, Keaton Winn RHP.  Of course injuries can hit any player at any time, but these are the ones I am kind of holding my breath on.  As always, the #1 goal of spring training is to get to Opening Day with the roster intact.

Who is the #5 Starting Pitcher?  Logan Webb RHP, Justin Verlander RHP, Robbie Ray LHP and Jordan Hicks RHP are all but named to the rotation.  It appears the #5 spot is Kyle Harrison LHPs to lose.  Other in the competition include Hayden Birdsong RHP, Landon Roupp RHP and Keaton Winn RHP if he is healthy. 

Who is the 8'th member of the bullpen?  Ryan Walker RHP(CL), Camilo Doval RHP, Tyler Rogers RHP, Sean Hjelle RHP and Erik Miller LHP appear to be locks. Less certain are Spencer Bivens RHP and Randy Rodriguez RHP but they appear to have the inside track.  The last spot is most likely reserved for a LHP.  Bob Melvin says he is looking for a lefty pitcher who can go multiple innings. That seems to be a signal that Joey Lucchesi LHP is the man until proven otherwise, but Tristan Beck RHP and Landon Roupp RHP will make their cases.  Options, or lack thereof do not seem to be an issue except for Lucchesi.

Who is the back up catcher?  We've discussed this in depth in a previous post.  If it's Murphy, I hope the Giants find some way to keep Sam Huff in the organization.

Is there room on the roster for both Wilmer Flores and Jerar Encarnacion?  When facing LHP's, Wilmer can play 1B and Jerar can DH, but what about against RHP's?  LMWJ would play 1B so would you rather have Jerar or Wilmer at DH?  If your answer neither and you want a LH bat, then Jake Lamb seems to be the guy and there is definitely not room for Wilmer, Jerar and Lamb.

Who is the reserve middle infielder?  Assuming Fitz is the starting 2B the options are Casey Schmitt, Osleivis Basabe and Brett Wisely.  Since Adames and Fitz both hit RH, a LH batter would be ideal but Wisely has had a couple of seasons to show he can hit at the MLB level and has not done so.  I am curious to see if Schmitt's apparent improved plate discipline is sustained but Basabe is probably the better fielder at SS and therefore more versatile.

Will all 5 positional bench players bat right handed?  Probably not ideal which would tend to favor at least one of Wisely, Lamb or Grant McCray making the team.

So here's how it shakes out:

Starting Position Players:

C  Patrick Bailey

1B:  Lamonte Wade Jr/Wilmer Flores platoon.

2B:  Tyler Fitzgerald

3B:  Matt Chapman

SS:  Willy Adames

LF:  Heliot Ramos

CF: Jung Hoo Lee

RF:  Mike Yastrzemski

Bench(pick 5 out of 4 categories):  

C:  Tom Murphy vs Sam Huff

MI:  Casey Schmitt vs Brett Wisely vs Osleivis Basabe

4'th OF:  Luis Matos vs Marco Luciano vs Grant McCray

5'th OF/DH:  Jerar Encarnacion vs Jake Lamb vs Matos/Luciano/McCray

Starting Rotation:

Logan Webb RHP

Justin Verlander RHP

Robbie Ray LHP

Jordan Hicks RHP

Kyle Harrison LHP vs Hayden Birdsong RHP

Bullpen:

Ryan Walker(Closer) RHP

Camilo Doval RHP

Tyler Rogers RHP

Sean Hjelle RHP

Erik Miller LHP

Pick 3:  Spencer Bivens RHP, Randy Rodriguez RHP, Joey Lucchesi LHP, Tristan Beck RHP, Landon Roupp RHP, Enny Romero LHP.

Spring Training Update: No News Is Good News

Sorry there isn't much to discuss out of spring training so far and that's probably a very good thing.  Most hard news generated in early spring training is related to injuries.  If the most vigorous discussion is related to back up catcher, we can all breath a sigh of relief and count our blessings.  

Based on the few on-field reports I've seen it seems the most impressive swings in live batting practice were from Willy Adames who homered on the second pitch he saw and Bryce Eldridge who had a nice looking hack at a left-handed delivery from Raymond Burgos.  There was also a swing by Jerar Encarnacion off Camilo Doval which may or may not have left the ballpark.

We're just 4 days away from the first spring exhibition game against the Rangers in Surprise, AZ.  I am all rested up from last season and ready to post daily Game Wraps so stay tuned.

Spring Training Update: Tom Murphy Gets MRI And Other Notes

 I am pretty sure this does not come as a shock to anyone here but Tom Murphy C, who came to camp in the best shape of his life, is going for an MRI after missing several bullpen sessions.  Murphy has a long history of injuries of all imaginable types so it raised some of our eyebrows when we heard the Giants were counting on him to be the back up catcher behind Patrick Bailey who faded in the second half of the last two seasons.  It seems whatever bothered Murphy's knee last season is fully healed but now it's his back, described as back spasms.  Sigh.

The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is Sam Huff who actually looks like a better than decent hitter and is reportedly good at framing and blocking and has a strong arm albeit possibly with a release on the slow side.  As for non-roster catchers there is Max Stassi who has health issues of his own.  He has not played since 2022 and in the meantime underwent hip resurfacing surgery.  What is hip resurfacing, you ask?  I didn't know either so I looked it up.  It's basically lining both the ball and socket of the hip joint with metal.  Yikes!  I am not sure if anyone has ever played major league baseball after undergoing that procedure.  You will have to color me skeptical.  

Back up catcher seems like it could be an area where Buster could have been more aggressive in the Hot Stove League especially with Patrick Bailey's history of fading in the second half.  And yes, I get it, back up catcher is about as close to a fungible asset as you are going to get, back spasms are usually a benign condition that gets better spontaneously and Sam Huff will probably do just fine if it comes to that. Not Buster's fault but Joey Bart would sure look good in a Giants uniform right now.

*************************************************************************************

It's official!  Lamonte Wade Jr is in the best shape of his life.  He concentrated all offseason on healing his hamstring and getting his legs in better condition with a running program. Now he is volunteering to play some outfield.  He did mention that his loss of power last year was due to weakness in his legs after the hamstring injury which prevented him from driving the ball.  I seem to recall some commentary about it looking like that's what was happening last year.  Stay healthy, LMWJ!  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: The Post-Prospects

We've talked a lot about the "post-prospects", players who have too much MLB experience to qualify as rookies and therefore don't conform to the "rules" of who can be included in prospect rankings.  On the other hand, they have not yet established any role on the team and might well start the season playing in the minor leagues or they may well emerge as future Giants stars.  Let's break it down and look at this group of players who could well determine whether the Giants have a successful season in 2025 or not.  I am just going to run through the 40-man roster starting with the pitchers rather than trying to rank them.

Tristan Beck RHP.  DOB:  6/24/1996.  6' 4", 165 lbs(he definitely weighs more than 165 lb!).  Drafted 2018 Round 4(ATL).

2024(AAA):  0-1, 7.90, 13.2 IP, 11.20 K/9, 1.98 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  0-0, 1.69, 16.0 IP, 7.88 K/9, 2.25 BB/9.

Beck might be a bit too established to be a post-prospect but since we love to talk about players we're all about inclusivity here.  Beck pitched 85 innings  with a 3.92 ERA in 2023 in a swingman role.  He was expected to make the 2024 team in a similar role but  experienced numbness in his throwing hand in spring training leading to a diagnosis of a subclavian artery aneurysm.  Yikes!  He underwent surgery and came back to pitch well in a small sample late in the season.  If he remains healthy through spring training he is a good bet to make the Opening Day roster as a swingman/long reliever.  He does still have 2 options despite being 28 years old which tends to work against him in this situation.

Hayden Birdsong RHP.  DOB:  8/30/2001.  6' 4", 215 lbs.  Drafted 2022 Round 6.

2024(AA):  4-2, 2.05, 48.1 IP, 11.36 K/9, 3.72 BB/9.

2024(AA):  1-0, 5.00, 9 IP, 14.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9.

2024(MLB):  5-6, 4.75, 11.00 K/9, 5.38 BB/9.

Birdsong was rushed into the gap when the Giants starting rotation fell apart and pitchers who were expected to recover from injuries didn't.  He showed electric stuff with a FB that averaged 96 MPH, a diving curveball and a better than decent changeup, but his command was inconsistent.  With Kyle Harrison likely ahead of him on the SP depth chart, he may well start the season in AAA barring an injury to the projected starting 5.  Has 3 options.

Kyle Harrison LHP.  DOB:  8/12/2001.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  Drafted 2020 Round 3($2.5 M bonus).

2024(MLB):  7-7, 4.56, 124.1 IP, 8.54 K/9, 3.04 BB/9.  

I forgot Harrison spend all season on the active roster last season(except when on the IL).  He started strong but faded in the second half with reduced velocity and eventually went on the IL with shoulder soreness which sounds kind of ominous.  Report out of spring training camp have him in the Best Shape of His Life with his velocity back up.  Harrison's explanation is he had an ankle injury that altered his motion that had a cascade effect.  He says that's all corrected.  He's the guy the Giants want to take the #5 SP role so it's probably his job to lose. Potential to be a Madison Bumgarner level ace if he stays healthy.  Has 3 options.

Spencer Bivens RHP.  DOB:  6/28/1994.  6' 5", 205 lbs.  Signed as free agent out of indy ball in 2022.

2024(AAA):  5-1, 2.92, 49.1 IP, 7.66 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.95 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  3-1, 3.14, 48.2 IP, 6.84 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.61 GB/FB, 1 Save, 2 Starts

Bivens has a great story line and pitched really well in multiple roles.  His FB runs 95 MPH, he throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground.  Throws 3 types of fastball, slider and changeup but relies on the sinker for 50% of his pitches.  Really, really deserves to be on the 2025 Opening Day roster. 2 options.

Landen Roupp RHP.  DOB:  9/10/1998.  6' 2", 205 lbs.  Drafted 2021 Round 12.

2024(ACL):  0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 21.6 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

2024(AAA):  0-1, 3.80, 21.1 IP, 12.66 K/9, 5.91 BB/9. 1.77 GB/FB.

2024(MLB):  1-2, 3.58, 50.1 IP, 8.40 K/9, 4.65 BB/9, 1.60 GB/FB.

Roupp has not been a highly rated prospect but impressed when thrown in the gap last year.  He throws a 94 MPH sinker and a hammer curveball with an occasional changeup.  Made 4 starts in 23 appearances and can pitch in a swingman role.  There are only so many roster spots for that role though and he has plenty of competition.  2 options.

Keaton Winn RHP.  DOB:  2/20/1998.  6' 4", 238 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 5.

2024(MLB):  3-8, 7.16, 55.1 IP, 7.81 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 1.67 GB/FB.  

Winn has the size and stuff to be a MLB star.  FB goes 96 MPH backed up by a splitter.  His big problem is staying healthy.  History of Tommy John surgery.  His season ended in July with ulnar nerve transposition surgery.  2 options.  It would not be a surprise to see him start the 2025 season in the 60-day IL.

Casey Schmitt IF.  DOB:  3/1/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6' 2", 215 lbs.  Drafted 2020 Round 2.

2024(AAA):  .274/.343/.469, 16 2B, 13 HR, 11 SB, 9.3 BB%, 20.9 K%, 335 PA.

2024(MLB):  .252/.283/.477, 4 2B, 6 HR, 3.5 BB%, 22.1 K%, 113 PA.

Casey Schmitt has a pitchers arm with athleticism to play multiple infield positions including SS.  He has toonder in his bat.  His big problem has been swinging at absolutely everything in or out of the strike zone.  As you can see his walk rate improved significantly in AAA and his swing decisions were noticeably better in a late call up last season.  There is a back up infielder role up for competition.  Can he sustain his newfound plate discipline enough to win it?  He could be a terrific super-utility guy.  1 option.

David Villar IF.  DOB:  1/27/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 215 lbs.  Drafted 2018 Round 11.

2024(AAA):  .260/.361/.441, 26 2B, 16 HR, 12.4 BB%, 25.7 K%, 482 PA.

2024(MLB):  .257/.270/.457, 4 2B, HR, 2.7 BB%, 35.1 K%, 37 PA.

Villar is the forgotten man.  He has consistently put up good numbers in the minor leagues but consistently struggled at the MLB level(although his cup of coffee last season was not THAT bad).  His primary position is 3B which is now blocked and Jerar Encarnacion, of all people, is ahead of him on the 1B/DH depth chart.  Fangraphs says he has an option but all other sources say he is out of options which, if true, means he probably won't be a Giant by the start of the season.  I think he still has an Adam Duvall-esque future but like Duvall will probably achieve it with another organization.

Jerar Encarnacion OF/1B/DH.  DOB:  10/22/1997.  B-R, T-R.  6' 4", 250 lbs.  Signed as free agent out of indy ball May 2024.

2024(AAA):  .352/.438/.616, 10 HR, 12.3 BB%, 24.0 K%, 146 PA.

2024(MLB):  .248/.277/.425, 5 2B, 5 HR, 4.2 BB%, 28.8 K%, 119 PA.

Encarnacion showed off light-tower power last season after the Giants signed him out of the Mexican League.  Honestly, his numbers don't look much different than David Villar's but for some reason Bob Melvin is talking him up as a potential DH option with not one word about Villar which I am sure tells us something about their relative chances of making the Opening Day active roster.   Encarnacion is also out of options.  He is pretty much a one-dimensional player but it's intriguing to think about what he might do with 600 PA's in a season.

Marco Luciano OF.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6' 1", 178 lbs.  Amateur free agent July 2018.

2024(AAA):  .250/.380/.380, 9 2B, 10 HR, 4 SB, 16.9 BB%, 26.8 K%, 384 PA.

2024(MLB):  .211/.259/.303, 5 2B, 3B, 6.2 BB%, 34.6 K%, 81 PA.

What a long strange trip it's been for Marco Luciano.  He was the Giants top ranked prospect for several years with glowing scouting reports, especially for the bat.  He was in line to be the Giants SS of the future starting with Opening Day 2024 but between Nick Ahmed and a late spring injury that did not happen.  He didn't start his minor league season until mid-May.  When Ahmed collapsed and Luciano finally got a chance to start at SS he made a series of almost comical errors which opened the door for Tyler Fitzgerald who grabbed the opportunity.  It all happened so fast it was hard to tell if it was just rookie nerves, the yips or he's just a bad fielder.  After Jorge Soler was traded, FZ basically said the DH job was Luciano's to lose. He DH'd a total of 7 games then disappeared again.  Was that Bob Melvin's decision or FZ's?  Luciano is back in camp this spring saying he felt lost at the plate most of last season and worked all offseason to get comfortable again.  Melvin says he will play exclusively corner OF.  He has 1 option.  Is his pro career salvageable?  

Luis Matos OF.  DOB:  1/28/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5' 11", 160 lbs.  Amateur Free Agent July 2018.  

2024(AAA):  .258/.328/.451, 22 2B, 14 HR, 8 SB, 7.5 BB%, 10.7 K%, 375 PA.

2024(MLB):  .213/237/.347, 5 2B, 5 HR, 3.2 BB%, 15.4 K%, 156 PA.

Matos signed with the same international class as Marco Luciano.  At one point Matos rose to near the top of several Giants prospect rankings.  He has run hot and cold through most of his pro career and has had some extremely hot streaks at the MLB level which he was not able to maintain.  He went on another tear in the Venezuelan Winter League with a .300/.345/.536 line with 20 2B, 10 HR in 235 PA.  He has a better than decent chance to win a 4'th or 5'th OF role but will compete with Jerar Encarnacion, Marco Luciano and Grant McCray.  He also has 1 option.

Spring Training Update: News and Notes

Pitchers and catchers reported a few days ago and "best shape of his life" stories are in full swing.  I am happy to see that Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, Jordan Hicks and Tom Murphy are all, in fact, in the best shape of their lives, or at least some variation of the theme.  

Hello!  I bet you, like me, forgot Joel Peguero RHP was signed to a minor league deal in the Hot Stove League.  Bob Melvin just casually mentioned that he hit 101 MPH in throwing sessions.  OK, I'm not sure hitting 101 in the first throwing session of the spring is a good idea but wow!  I decided I better find out a bit more about Joel Peguero.  Fangraphs rates his FB as a 70(yes, I would say so) and his slider as a 55/60.  He put up this line in AA in the Tigers organization last season:  3-0, 3.14, 51.2 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1.70 GB/FB.  A name to keep an eye on.  My guy is still Enny Romero LHP.  You heard it here first!

For those of us anxious about the backup catcher role, Tom Murphy C is reportedly.....in the best shape of his life and the favorite for the role although Max Stassi and Sam Huff are also options.

For those of us worried about whether Jordan Hicks RHP can handle a SP load for longer than 2 months, he is reportedly "bulked up" from last season.  Hopefully that's good bulk and not Pablo Sandoval bulk.  

Lastly Bob Melvin his musing out loud about having LMWJ bat leadoff to take advantage of his elite OBP and move Jung Hoo Lee to third in the order as Melvin thinks there's more power in his tank.  

DrB's 2025 Giants Top 50 Prospects: #1 Bryce Eldridge

Bryce Eldridge 1B.  DOB:  10/20/2004.  B-L, T-R.  6' 7", 223 lbs.  Drafted 2023 Round 1

2024(A):  .263/.323/478, 14 2B, 10 HR, 2 SB, 7.4 BB%, 26.6 K%, 229 PA.

2024(A+):  .335/.442/.618, 11 HR, 3B, 12 HR, 16.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 215 PA.

2024(AA):  .270/.325/.459, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 7.5 BB%, 20.0 K%, 40 PA.

2024(AAA):  .226/.314/.226, 11.4 BB%, 31.4 K%, 35 PA.

2024(AFL):  .293/.348/.512, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6.5 BB%, 34.8 K%, 46 PA.

In 2010 the Giants had a first base prospect who blew through 3 levels in his first pro season then hit .372 in the AFL.  The Giants were coming off winning a World Series but with a patchwork group of misfits and were in desperate need of more thump in the lineup.  He had a good spring and made the Opening Day roster.  To some observers he seemed awfully wide-eyed, struggled with big league pitching and got sent down which was an emotionally traumatic experience. He spent the rest of the season shuttling between AAA and the Giants.  He batted .225 at the MLB level but showed his power potential with 9 HR's in 209 PAs.  

I am sure Buster Posey remembers Brandon Belt's difficult rookie season and does not want to repeat that with Bryce Eldridge.  In a recent interview with Brodie Brazil, Bob Melvin backed that up saying Eldridge is a special hitter and a highly motivated prospect but he's just 20 years old and had a long whirlwind season playing at 4 levels plus the Arizona Fall League.  Melvin said he needs to slow down and build up AB's in the upper minors but when he arrives he will have that experience and confidence to be the special hitter he can be.

Although I think the Giants farm system is underrated and there are more good prospects in it than Eldridge, he is the shining star, The Franchise if you will.  He has tremendous size and raw power and a swing that allows him to control the strike zone despite his length.  He still needs some coaching and experience to polish up his defensive game at first base but has the athleticism to eventually be a plus defender there.  Absolute worst case scenario is he has more than enough bat to justify carrying him as a dedicated DH.  

It's hard to say when we will see him in a Giants uniform during the regular season.  It probably depends partly on how well LMWJ and Wilmer Flores remain healthy and productive as a first base platoon but we will likely see Bryce Eldridge in the majors at some point in 2025 even if it's a late-season call up.