Hot Stove League Update: Ryan Helsley Signs With Orioles

Ryan Helsley signed a free agent contract with the Baltimore Orioles for 2 yr/$28 M with an opt-out after one year.  That's pretty rich for a guy who sported a 4.50 ERA with 9 Blown Saves in 2025.  Let's break it down:

Ryan Helsley RHP.  DOB:  7/18/1994.  6' 2", 235 lbs.  

2025:  3-4, 4.50, 56 IP, 10.13 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 21 Saves, 9 Blown Saves, .342 BABIP, 14.5 HR/FB%, 1.29 GB/FB, 7.4 Barrel %, 41.7 Hard Hit %, 4.14 FIP.

Helsley throws hundos and has been an elite closer but got roughed up in 2025.  On the surface this would appear to be due to bad BABIP luck but if you dig down a bit, he also has a significant bump up in Barrel % and Hard Hit %, so for some reason he became more hittable and it was probably not just due to the whims of the BABIP gods.  The Orioles disappointing season was largely due to a bullpen failure.  With Felix Bautista not due back until August at the earliest, signing an established Closer became a priority.  The Orioles obviously believe that Helsley's rough season was mostly due to bad luck and are counting on a bounce back.  

Scouting the 2026 Draft: Derek Curiel

Derek Curiel OF, College(LSU).  DOB:  5/24/2005.  B-L, T-L.  6' 2", 175 lbs.  

2025:  .345/.470/.519, 7 HR, 3 SB, 16.4 BB%, 17.3 K%, 323 PA.

At one point there was talk of Curiel being a first round pick out of high school but his stock fell after a disappointing senior season.  He opted to play college ball at LSU and had an impressive freshman season as an ultra high contact leadoff hitter.  Played mostly LF and will try to further raise his stock by moving to CF as his primary position as a draft-eligible sophomore.  Current gap power will have to generate more home runs if he has to play corner OF in the pros.  

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Sam Hentges

Sam Hentges:  If you are like me, his name was only vaguely familiar and you had to look him up.  Anyway, the Giants signed someone named Sam Hentges to a $1.4 M major league contract which filled up their 40-man roster, which means the next player they sign to a major league deal will bump someone off the 40-man roster and it will almost certainly not be Hentges.  So, who is Sam Hentges?

Sam Hentges LHP.  DOB:7/18/1996.  6' 6", 245 lbs.  No options, free agent 2028.

2024(Guardians):  0-0, 3.04, 23.2 IP, 10.27 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 1.35 GB/FB.  

Big lefty reliever who put up elite numbers with the Guardians for 4 seasons.  A shoulder injury in 2024 led to surgery and he missed all of the 2025 season.  He also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee in Sept. 2025.  He is expected to be healthy enough to start spring training on time and compete for a bullpen spot for the regular season.  Still, it's a bit unsettling that he has yet to prove he's healthy.  There is tremendous upside if he is, especially with team control of his contract for 2 additional seasons.  Interesting the Giants elected to non-tender Joey Lucchesi with a MLBTR predicted salary of $2 M but are willing to pay Hentges $1.4 M with no guarantee he'll be healthy enough to pitch.

Happy Thanksgiving

 Hey team!  Happy Thanksgiving everybody!  I am thankful for this blog, having the ability to write down my thoughts in a way readers seem to appreciate and for you all who read and add your comments which all makes this the best Giants oriented blog out there.

Hot Stove League Update: Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease

 Dylan Cease has something to be thankful for tomorrow, a 7 yr./$210 M contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Although Cease was ranked as one of the top free agents on this year's market, his case is not without concerns.  Let's break it down:

Dylan Cease RHP.  DOB:  12/28/1995.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  8-12, 4.55, 168 IP, 11.52 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 0.88 GB/FB, 11.9 HR/9.  

Dylan Cease can be counted on to take the ball every 5'th game rain or shine.  He's made at least 32 Starts for the 5 seasons although he does not go deep into game averaging just over 5 IP/Start.  While his high K rate is an asset it, along with a relatively high walk rate, contributes to early exits.  As for why his ERA has underperformed his peripheral stats for the third season in a row, the walks, flyball tendency and generous HR/FB are contributing factors.

Comment:  Although there is a lot to like in Dylan Cease, 7 yr/$210 M is a big commitment to a pitcher who consistently underperforms their secondary stats.  

Hot Stove League Update: Cardinals Trade Sonny Gray....to the Red Sox

 The Chaim Bloom Cardinals rebuild started in earnest with a salary dump trade of Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for two pitching prospects plus another PTBNL or cash.  Speaking of cash, the Cardinals are sending $20 M to the Red Sox to cover part of Gray's hefty salary, more on that later.  Let's break down the players involved first:

Sonny Gray RHP.  DOB:  11/7/1989.  5' 10", 190 lbs.  14-8, 4.28, 180.2 IP, 10.01 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 1.28 GB/FB.  Contract:  1 Yr/$35 M with $5 M buyout on a $30 M club option for 2027(Reworked in the trade to 1 yr/$31 M with a $10 M buyout on a mutual option for for 2027).

Gray's main positive is durability.  He averaged 177 IP over his last 3 seasons.  His K and BB rates remained strong but his ERA bumped up to the third highest of his career due to a .329 BABIP.  On the surface you might think he is due for a positive regression but he also had a FB/GB, HR/FB and Hard Hit% significantly higher than his career averages.  

Richard Fitts RHP.  DOB:  12/17/1999.  6' 3", 230 lbs.  2-4, 5.00, 45 IP, 8.00 K/9, 3.20 BB/9.  Pre-arbitration, 2 options.

2021 6'th round draft pick out of Auburn. Big body with a 95 MPH FB.  Has been a SP but may have more of a Reliever profile.  

Brandon Clarke LHP.  DOB:  4/10/2003.  6' 4", 220 lbs.  A/A+:  0-3, 4.03, 38 IP, 14.21 K/9, 6.39 K/9, 2.42 GB/FB.  Rule 5 eligible Dec. 2027.

Former 5'th round draft pick. Big lefty with tremendous stuff but has a wild hair up his nose.  Reliever profile.  

Comment:  Gray may be entering the the downside of his career With the money the Cardinals are including in the deal, Gray will essentially cost the BoSox $21 M for one season since mutual options are almost never exercised but both parties.  Gray may be entering the the downside of his career, but Sox are getting a reliable SP who will grind out innings and keep them in most games at a reasonable price.  Since this was mainly a salary dump by the Cardinals they get a couple of pitching prospects who profile as relievers but likely no future stars.  

The Giants were rumored to be interested in Gray at last year's trade deadline which led to speculation they may pursue a trade for him this offseason.  I have a feeling his ship sailed away from San Francisco when Bob Melvin, his former manager with the A's was fired.  I think the Giants can find as good or better SP option for a lower price this offseason.

Hot Stove League Update: Mets and Rangers Trade Contracts

This trade seems to be more of a contract trade than a player trade although it makes some sense as a player challenge trade too Yesterday, the Rangers sent Marcus Semien 2B and his 3 yr/$72 M remaining contract to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo OF and the remaining 5 yr/$101.5 M of his contract. Let's break it down into components:

Mets take:

Marcus Semien 2B.  DOB:  9/17/1990.  B-R, T-R.  6' 0", 195 lbs.  Contract:  7 yr/$175 M, now 3 yr/$72 M, $24 M AAV.

2025:  .230/.305/.364, 15 HR, 11 SB, 9.4 BB%, 17.4 K%, 127 PA, 2.1 fWAR.  

Fangraphs still rates Semien as a plus defender but the bat has gone relatively cold over the past two seasons and the 3 yr sequence of this fWAR value is 6.5, 4.3, 2.1.  Note that part of his down season was injury related and his Steamer projection for 2026 is a small rebound to 3.1 fWAR which is valued close to his AAV.

Rangers Get:

Brandon Nimmo OF.  DOB:  3/27/1993.  B-L, T-R.  6' 2", 206 lbs. Contract:  8 yr/$162 M, now 5 yr/$101.5 M, $19.25 M AAV(Rangers get $5 M from Mets to partially offset the contract difference).

2025:  .262/.324/.436, 25 HR, 13 SB, 7.7 BB%, 21.6 K%, 587 PA, 3.0 fWAR.  

Nimmo is not a CF anymore but he is still a good fielder in LF.  His fWAR value peaked at 5.5 in 2022 then dropped to 4.2, 2.8, 3.0.  FWIW his Steamer projection for 2026 is 2.5 fWAR.  

There are some convoluted reasons why this trade helps balance both rosters.  Beyond that, the Mets are taking on a higher AAV for a shorter duration while the Rangers lower their AAV but take on a longer commitment.  Both players will be the same age(38) at the end of their respective contracts.  The trade appears to be even although I can see Semien bouncing back from his injury more easily than Nimmo changing his career trajectory.