Hot Stove Update: Heating Up

The Hot Stove League is heating up with 3 significant deals reported in the first 2 days of the week leading up to the Winter Meetings.   So what's going on?

The Mets agreed to terms with Devin Williams RHP on a 3 yr/$51 M contract.  The deal includes a $6 M signing bonus paid in 3 installments.  There is also $15 M in deferrals plus a $1 M assignment bonus in the event of a trade.  There does not seem to be in opt-out.  

Devin Williams RHP.  DOB:  9/21/1004.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  

2025(Yankees):  4-6, 4.79, 62 IP, 13.06 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 18 Saves, 15 Holds, 4 Blown Saves, 2.69 FIP.

Another case of a veteran shut-down closer coming off a down season.  Once again, while the usual peripheral numbers look like it's due to bad luck, if you drill down to the third layer of stats, Williams gave up harder contact than in previous seasons.  The Mets obviously think this is a blip and he'll positively regress to his mean over the next 3 seasons but that's a lot of money being dropped on a Closer who lost his job amid an ERA over 4 last season.  Man! The market for underperforming closers is white hot!

The Angels signed troubled SP Alek Manoah to a 1 yr/$1.95 M contract.  \

Alek Manoah RHP.  DOB:  1/9/1998.  6' 6", 285 lbs.  

2025(MiLB- 4 levels):  1-1, 3.96, 38.2 IP, 8.15 K/9, 5.35 BB/9.  

After bursting on the scene in 2022, Manoah's career fell on hard times.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2024 and spent the first half of 2025 rehabbing.  When time came to bring him off the 60-day IL the Blue Jays did not have room and DFA'd him.  The Braves claimed him but then non-tendered him making him a free agent.  It's a little surprising he got a MLB deal at all but the Angels reportedly inquired of the Blue Jays about him in the past.  It's a $2 M lottery ticket that seems like the longest of longshots but stranger things have happened.

The Blue Jays continued to show they are serious about repeating as AL champs by signing Cody Ponce to a 3 yr/$30 M.  Ponce was once a second round draft pick by the Brewers in the 2015 draft(wow! That's like a lifetime ago!).  He got some pre-draft buzz for touching triple digits on the fastball.  Ponce made it to the major leagues but struggled and never found traction.  He went to Japan and also struggled there.  He landed in the KBO and had breakout numbers:  17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.6 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.  This was accompanied by reports of much improved conditioning and better stuff.  I can understand the excitement here and maybe the BJ's can afford to take a risk on upside but there are real questions about strength of competition here for a guy who is a one season wonder.  The contract is not backbreaking if it doesn't work out.

2024 Draft Review: First Round

We will do some draft reviews to fill time during lulls in Hot Stove League action.  The draft occurs so late in the season now many of the new professional players do not see game action until the following season.  The ones who do see action do not accumulate a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions.  We'll therefore start our reviews with the 2024 draft which was heavy on college hitters.  Everybody loves rankings and grades.  We will assign grades to each pick just for fun.  Note that grades are based on performance to date only, not to future value or prospect rankings.

1.  Guardians:  Travis Bazzana 2B, College.

2025(AA):  .256/.364/.426, 5 HR, 9 SB, 12.7 BB%, 24.1 K%, 228 PA.

2025(AAA):  .225/.420/.438, 4 HR, 2 SB, 24.2 BB%, 26.7 K%, 120 PA.

Although multiple 2024 first rounders already made their MLB debuts, making it to AAA in a player's first full pro season is still impressive.  Numbers suggest Bazzana may be too passive at the plate and needs to sacrifice a few walks to bring his K rate down and his BA up.  Fangraphs scouting report says he is not a good defender.  Grade B.

2.  Reds:  Chase Burns RHP, College.

2025(MiLB):  7-3, 1.77, 66 IP, 12.14 K/9, 1.77 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB.

2025(MLB):  0-3, 4.57, 43.1 IP, 13.9 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 0.86 GB/FB, 2.65 FIP.

Numbers suggest he'll be an ace.  Scouting report says triple digit FB with a grade 70 slider.  Missed time with a grade 1 flexor strain and used as a reliever after he came back on Sept 11.  Injury risk something to watch going forward.  Grade A.

3.  Rockies:  Charlie Condon OF, College.

2025(A+):  .312/.431/.420, 3 HR, 15.6 BB%, 21.0 K%, 167 PA.

2025(AA):  .235/.342/.465, 11 HR, 10.5 BB%, 28.3 K%, 237 PA.

Power hitter who looks like he's going to be a 3-true outcomes kind of hitter.  Those guys can be a little slower to develop.  AA in first full pro season is still nothing to be ashamed of.  Grade B.

4.  A's:  Nick Kurtz 1B, College. 

2025(AAA):  .321/.385/.655, 7 HR, 10.3 BB%, 26.8 K%, 97 PA.

2025(MLB):  .290/.383/.619, 36 HR, 12.9 BB%, 30.9 K%, 489 PA.

The K rate may give some pause but it's pretty darn hard to top that for a first full pro season.  Grade A.

5.  White Sox:  Hagen Smith LHP, College.

2025(AA):  3-3, 3.57, 75.2 IP, 12.85 K/9, 6.66 BB/9. 

Missed some time with elbow soreness with MRI showing no structural damage.  Worked on mechanical issues while on the IL.  AA is a strong placement for first full season.  Has been described as having a "killer" FB/slider combo.  Grade B.

6.  Royals:  Jac Caglionone OF, College.

2025(AA):  .322/.394/.553, 9 HR, 10.9 BB%, 21.1 K%, 175 PA.

2025(AAA):  .357/.426/.705, 11 HR, 9.3 BB%, 15.5 K%, 129 PA.

2025(MLB):  .157/.237/.295, 7 HR, 7.8 BB%, 22.4 K%, 232 PA.  

Fast riser who destroyed AA and AAA pitching before struggling to make the adjustment to MLB.  Impressive first full pro season with expectations for improvement with experience in the league.  Grade A

7.  Cardinals:  J. J. Wetherholt SS, College.

2025(AA):  .300/.425/.466, 7 HR, 14 SB, 16.0 BB%, 14.5 K%, 275 PA.

2025(AAA):  .314/.416/.562, 10 HR, 9 SB, 12.7 BB%, 14.9 K%, 221 PA.

All signs point to Wetherholt being an elite, 5-tool middle infielder as soon as Opening Day 2026.  Although scouting reports have him doing just fine at SS, the Cardinals may prefer to keep Masyn Winn there and put J. J. at 2B since his bat plays more than well there too.  Grade A.

8.  Angels:  Christian Moore 2B, College.

2025(AA):  .234/.342/.323, HR, 5 SB, 14.4 BB%, 27.4 K%, 146 PA.

2025(AAA):  .292/.370/.483, 5 HR, 4 SB, 10.1 BB%, 29.0 K%, 138 PA.

2025(MLB):  .198/.284/.370, 7 HR, 3 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.7 K%, 184 PA.

The Angels have a history of drafting college hitters and rushing them to the majors.  Moore may have jumped a bridge too far but now he knows what adjustments he needs to make.  K rate was high even in the minors so that is an area that needs work.  Grade B.

9.  Pirates:  Konnor Griffin SS, HS.

2025(A):  .338/.396/.536, 9 HR, 26 SB, 6.5 BB%, 22.9 K%, 231 PA.

2025(A+):  .325/.432/.510, 7 HR, 33 SB, 12.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, 234 PA.

2025(AA):  .337/.418/.542, 5 HR, 6 SB, 7.1 BB%, 21.7 K%, 98 PA.

First HS player drafted.  Griffin had a fantastic first full season.  Making AA and performing well there is almost unheard of for the first full season for a player drafted out of HS.  Word is the Pirates are considering giving him a chance to win the starting SS job out of spring training.  Looks ike a special player.  Grade A.

10.  Nationals:  Seaver King SS, College.

2025(A+):  .263/.307/.380, 3 HR, 12 SB, 4.6 BB%, 21.6 K%, 194 PA.

2025(AA):  .233/.287/.313, 3 HR, 18 SB, 6.4 BB%, 20.7 K%, 357 PA.  

Free swinger who doesn't make up for an extremely low walk rate with low enough K rate or hard contact.  AA is an aggressive placement even for a player drafted out of college, but he obviously needs some work on his approach at the plate.  Grade C.

11.  Tigers:  Bryce Rainer SS, HS.

2025(A):  .288/.383/.448, 5 HR, 9 SB, 13.4 BB%, 22.1 K%, 149 PA. 

Was coming along just fine in A ball when he dislocated his right shoulder and underwent season-ending surgery which is not good for any player, let alone a shortstop.  Grade C.

12.  Red Sox:  Braden Montgomery OF, College.

2025(A):  .304/.393/.493, 3 HR, 6 SB, 11.9 BB%, 22.6 K%, 84 PA.

2025(A+):  .260/.348/.445, 8 HR,5 SB, 11.0 BB%, 24.1 K%, 290 PA.

2025(AA):  .272/.364/.416, HR, 3 SB, 10.5 BB%, 28.7 K%, 143 PA.  

Toolsy switch-hitter whose college career ended with a right ankle fracture which required surgery.  He worked his way through 3 levels in his first pro season which ended a little early with a right foot fracture from a foul ball.  He seemed healthy in the Arizona Fall League so hopefully no residual effects.  Giants might want to file that ankle surgery history away in case they ever want to trade for him or sign him as a free agent in the future(only a hint of sarcasm here).  Grade C.

13.  Giants:  James Tibbs III OF, College.

2025(A+):  .246/.379/.478, 12 HR, 3 SB, 16.4 BB%, 17.6 K%, 256 PA.  

2025(AA-Red Sox):  .207/.319/.267, HR, 2 SB, 13.8 BB%, 28.3 K%, 138 PA.

2025(AA- Dodgers):  .269/.407/.493, 7 HR, 5 SB, 17.3 BB%, 21.4 K%, 168 PA. 

Tibbs showed elite plate discipline and some power at A+ level in the Giants organization.  He was traded to the Red Sox in the Rafael Devers deal who were unimpressed by his performance with their AA club. He was shortly flipped to.....the Dodgers?!  Yikes!  His numbers with the Dodgers AA affiliate were more similar to his Giants A+ numbers.  He's reputed to be defensively challenged and does not hit lefties well.  Fangraphs projects him as a platoon outfielder.  Grade C(But hey!  If he helped land Devers, we may be undervaluing his selection for the Giants).

14.  Cubs:  Cam Smith OF, College.

2025(MLB):  .236/.312/358, 9 HR, 8 SB, 8.7 BB%, 27.8 K%, 493 PA.

Traded to the Astros in the deal for Kyle Tucker, Smith had Giants fans grinding their teeth when he opened the season in an Astros uniform and got off to a hot start.  It was like "hey!  How did the Giants draft Tibbs ahead of this guy?"  Well, the honeymoon didn't last long for Smith and just a few days ago Astros GM Dana Brown said Smith could begin next season in AAA "if he hasn't turned the corner."(Per Fangraphs).  Tough to grade this one but we'll give him a C.

15.  Mariners:  Jurrangelo Cijntje P, College.

2025(A+):  4-7, 4.58, 74.2 IP, 10.00 K/9, 4.22 BB/9.

2025(AA):  1-0, 2.67, 33.2 IP, 9.89 K/9, 4.28 BB/9.

Switch pitcher who Fangraphs scouting report says has a starter's mix from the right side and a lefty specialist mix from the left.  Walk rate needs to come down a notch.  Grade C.

16.  Marlins:  P. J. Morlando OF, HS.

2025(A):  .226/.361/.353, 5 HR, 6 SB, 15.5 BB%, 26.6 K%, 233 PA.  

Strong walk rate but high K rate suppresses BA and usable power.  Grade D.

17.  Brewers:  Braylon Payne OF, HS.

2025(A):  .240/.354/.382, 8 HR, 31 SB, 15.2 BB%, 30.1 K%, 342 PA.  

Almost identical numbers as Morlando.  Impressive SB's.  Grade D.

18.  Rays:  Theo Gillen OF, HS.

.267/.433/.387, 5 HR, 36 SB, 19.8 BB%, 23.1 K%, 324 PA.  

Managed to keep K rate in manageable range despite an extreme walk rate.  Able to turn walks into doubles with SB's.  Grade C.

19.  Mets:  Carson Benge OF, College.

2025(A+):  .302/.417/.480, 4 HR, 15 SB, 15.1 BB%, 18.5 K%, 271 PA.

2025(AA):  .317/.407/.571, 8 HR, 4 SB, 12.4 BB%, 15.9 K%, 145 PA.

2025(AAA):  .178/.272/.311, 3 HR, 3 SB, 8.7 BB%, 18.4 K%, 103 PA.

Ran out of gas at the AAA level.  Per Fangraphs, David Stearns says Benge has an opportunity to win a starting OF job at the MLB level in spring training.  Grade B.

20.  Blue Jays:  Trey Yesavage RHP, College.

2025(A):  3-0, 2.43, 33.1 IP, 14.85 K/9, 2.16 BB/9.  

2025(A+):  1-0, 1.56, 17.1 IP, 17.13 K/9, 5.71 BB/9.

2025(AA):  1-1, 4.50, 30 IP, 13.80 K/9, 3.30 BB/9.

2025(AAA):  .0-0, 3.63, 17.1 IP, 13.50 K/9, 5.71 BB/9.

2025(MLB Regular Season):  1-0, 3.21, 14 IP, 10.29 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

2025(MLB Postseason):  3-1, 3.58, 27.2 IP, 12.69 K/9, 3.58 BB/9.

Whirlwind season capped by pitching well in the World Series.  It doesn't much better than that.  Grade A.

21.  Twins:  Kaelen Culpepper SS, College.

2025(A+):  .293/.385/.479, 9 HR, 15 SB, 10.5 BB%, 16.2 K%, 247 PA.

2025(AA):  .285/.367/.460, 11 HR, 10 SB, 8.9 BB%, 18.5 K%, 270 PA.

This is why I do these reviews.  Kaelen Culpepper has never been on my radar screen but wow!  It's hard to find anything to quibble with in these numbers.  There is some question whether he is SS or 3B. The Twins have Brooks Lee at SS and Royce Lewis at 3B so they have time to let Culpepper polish his game in AAA but I could see him challenging for a starting MLB job as early as spring training 2026.  Grade B

22.  Orioles:  Vance Honeycutt OF, College.

2025(A+):  .171/.284/.275, 5 HR, 32 SB, 12.8 BB%, 40.8 K%, 436 PA.

There were always questions about Honeycutt's hit tool and this is ugly.  Grade F

23.  Dodgers:  Kellon Lindsay SS, HS.

2025(A):  .274/.379/.400, 3 HR, 11 SB, 14.3 BB%, 31.7 K%, 161 PA.

Lindsey got off to a decent start in the Cal League.  I saw him play in May shortly before he went on the IL.  He's athletic looking with some speed but his wiry frame may be too light to develop much power.  Ended up missing most of the season with a shoulder impingement.  Reports say he should be ready to play in the spring but not sure what that is based on.  Grade D

24.  Braves:  Cam Caminiti LHP, HS.

2025(FCL):  0-1, 7.24, 13.2 IP, 9.88 K/9, 1.32 BB/9.

2025(A):  2-3, 2.08, 56.1 IP, 11.98 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.

First HS pitcher drafted.  I was kind of hoping the Giants would draft him at #13.  He's about where you would expect a HS pitcher to be after first full pro season.  Grade C.

25.  Padres:  Kash Mayfield LHP, HS.

2025(A):  1-5, 2.97, 60.2 IP, 13.05 K/9, 4.15 BB/9.

Padres always go for upside in the draft and it's paid off well over the years.  Mayfield is right about where you expect for a HS pitcher's first full pro season.  The K/9 is particularly encouraging.  The walk rate is a bit higher than ideal but can come down with experience.  Grade C

26.  Yankees:  Ben Hess RHP, College.

2025(A+):  4-3, 3.51, 66.2 IP, 12.69 K/9, 4.46 BB/9.

2025(AA):  3-1, 2.70, 36.2 IP, 11.05 K/9, 3.19 BB/9.

Hess is slightly ahead of the curve after pitching well at AA in his first full pro season.  Grade B

27.  Phillies:  Dante Nori OF, HS.

2025(A):  .262/.363/.381, 4 HR, 37 SB, 13.1 BB%, 14.9 K%, 502 PA.

2025(A+):  .279/.396/.326, 13 SB, 15.1 BB%, 15.1 K%, 53 PA.

2025(AA):  .190/.227/.286, 2 SB, 4.5 BB%, 9.1 K%, 22 PA.

Impressive speed and plate discipline.  Grade B

28.  Astros:  Walker Janek C, College.

2025(A+):  .263/.333/.433, 12 HR, 30 SB, 7.5 BB%, 26.6 K%

A+ is an appropriate placement for first full season for a college draftee.  Line is significant improvement over .175/.214/.289 from 2024.  Grade C

29.  D'Backs:  Slade Caldwell OF, HS.

2025(A):  .294/.460/.454, 3 HR, 13 SB, 20.4 BB%, 28.7 K%, 216 PA.

2025(A+):  .238/.370/.311, 12 SB, 15.7 BB%, 25.3 K%, 300 PA.

A+ is aggressive for first full season for HS draftee.  Secondary stats look like a 3-true outcomes guy but without the home runs.  Compact frame with speed as best tool.  Grade C.

30.  Rangers:  Malcolm Moore C, College.

2025(A+):  .195/.300/.276, 2 HR, 4 SB, 8.3 BB%, 19.4 K%, 242 PA.

He's going to have to be a Patrick Bailey level defender to overcome those hitting stats.  Grade F.

Comment:  I learned a lot from this exercise.  The 2024 draft class is generally considered relatively weak, yet I was surprised at how well most of the prospects are doing.  It is also clear to me that teams are fast-tracking their first round prospects way more than, say, 10 years ago when it was rare for a drafted player to reach the majors in their first full season.  I wish us Giants fans had a first rounder to track to the majors but hopefully the next 3-4 seasons of Rafael Devers makes us forget about James Tibbs III.

Hot Stove League Update: Ryan Helsley Signs With Orioles

Ryan Helsley signed a free agent contract with the Baltimore Orioles for 2 yr/$28 M with an opt-out after one year.  That's pretty rich for a guy who sported a 4.50 ERA with 9 Blown Saves in 2025.  Let's break it down:

Ryan Helsley RHP.  DOB:  7/18/1994.  6' 2", 235 lbs.  

2025:  3-4, 4.50, 56 IP, 10.13 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 21 Saves, 9 Blown Saves, .342 BABIP, 14.5 HR/FB%, 1.29 GB/FB, 7.4 Barrel %, 41.7 Hard Hit %, 4.14 FIP.

Helsley throws hundos and has been an elite closer but got roughed up in 2025.  On the surface this would appear to be due to bad BABIP luck but if you dig down a bit, he also has a significant bump up in Barrel % and Hard Hit %, so for some reason he became more hittable and it was probably not just due to the whims of the BABIP gods.  The Orioles disappointing season was largely due to a bullpen failure.  With Felix Bautista not due back until August at the earliest, signing an established Closer became a priority.  The Orioles obviously believe that Helsley's rough season was mostly due to bad luck and are counting on a bounce back.  

Scouting the 2026 Draft: Derek Curiel

Derek Curiel OF, College(LSU).  DOB:  5/24/2005.  B-L, T-L.  6' 2", 175 lbs.  

2025:  .345/.470/.519, 7 HR, 3 SB, 16.4 BB%, 17.3 K%, 323 PA.

At one point there was talk of Curiel being a first round pick out of high school but his stock fell after a disappointing senior season.  He opted to play college ball at LSU and had an impressive freshman season as an ultra high contact leadoff hitter.  Played mostly LF and will try to further raise his stock by moving to CF as his primary position as a draft-eligible sophomore.  Current gap power will have to generate more home runs if he has to play corner OF in the pros.  

Hot Stove League Update: Giants Sign Sam Hentges

Sam Hentges:  If you are like me, his name was only vaguely familiar and you had to look him up.  Anyway, the Giants signed someone named Sam Hentges to a $1.4 M major league contract which filled up their 40-man roster, which means the next player they sign to a major league deal will bump someone off the 40-man roster and it will almost certainly not be Hentges.  So, who is Sam Hentges?

Sam Hentges LHP.  DOB:7/18/1996.  6' 6", 245 lbs.  No options, free agent 2028.

2024(Guardians):  0-0, 3.04, 23.2 IP, 10.27 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, 1.35 GB/FB.  

Big lefty reliever who put up elite numbers with the Guardians for 4 seasons.  A shoulder injury in 2024 led to surgery and he missed all of the 2025 season.  He also underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee in Sept. 2025.  He is expected to be healthy enough to start spring training on time and compete for a bullpen spot for the regular season.  Still, it's a bit unsettling that he has yet to prove he's healthy.  There is tremendous upside if he is, especially with team control of his contract for 2 additional seasons.  Interesting the Giants elected to non-tender Joey Lucchesi with a MLBTR predicted salary of $2 M but are willing to pay Hentges $1.4 M with no guarantee he'll be healthy enough to pitch.

Happy Thanksgiving

 Hey team!  Happy Thanksgiving everybody!  I am thankful for this blog, having the ability to write down my thoughts in a way readers seem to appreciate and for you all who read and add your comments which all makes this the best Giants oriented blog out there.

Hot Stove League Update: Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease

 Dylan Cease has something to be thankful for tomorrow, a 7 yr./$210 M contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.  Although Cease was ranked as one of the top free agents on this year's market, his case is not without concerns.  Let's break it down:

Dylan Cease RHP.  DOB:  12/28/1995.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  8-12, 4.55, 168 IP, 11.52 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 0.88 GB/FB, 11.9 HR/9.  

Dylan Cease can be counted on to take the ball every 5'th game rain or shine.  He's made at least 32 Starts for the 5 seasons although he does not go deep into game averaging just over 5 IP/Start.  While his high K rate is an asset it, along with a relatively high walk rate, contributes to early exits.  As for why his ERA has underperformed his peripheral stats for the third season in a row, the walks, flyball tendency and generous HR/FB are contributing factors.

Comment:  Although there is a lot to like in Dylan Cease, 7 yr/$210 M is a big commitment to a pitcher who consistently underperforms their secondary stats.