DrB's 2020 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #1 Marco Luciano

 Marco Luciano SS.  DOB:  9/10/2001.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 178 lbs.  

2021(A):  .278/.373/.556, 18 HR, 5 SB, 12.3 BB%, 22.1 K%, 308 PA.

2021(A+):  .217/.283/.295, HR, SB, 6.9 BB%, 37.2 K%, 145 PA.

2021(AFL):  .253/.356/.373, 12.6 BB%, 32.2 K%, 87 PA.

Marco Luciano was the top international prospect signed by the Giants in 2018 for $2.6 M.  Considering they also signed Luis Matos and Jairo Pomares that year, that's saying something.  Although Luciano was not necessarily the top overall international prospect in 2018, he was ranked by analysts as having the top tools.  So far, he has lived up to the hype. The top tool is power.  With a filled out frame, 2021 was a breakout power year mostly for A level San Jose.  Video of his 2021 performance put together by Sean Bialaszek shows Luciano spraying home runs to all fields with the kind of easy power you see from the top hitters in the game.

The 36 games for A+ Eugene were a bit of faceplant, but it was a late season promotion and Luciano was the youngest player in the league.  His numbers recovered somewhat for the Scottsdale Scorpions in the AFL and he was likely one of the youngest players in that league too.  

He's slipped a bit in Fangraphs overall prospect rankings, mainly due to a concern about whether he can remain as shortstop.  Apparently the rap is with throwing accuracy, not arm strength.  Giants Farm Director, Kyle Haines, was less specific but also voiced concerns.  "He's not going to be Brandon Crawford.  I don't see that."  If Luciano has to move off SS, it obviously affects his future value in prospect rankings, but the bat looks like it should easily play anywhere on the field.  I think we are talking 35-40 HR/year over multiple seasons.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #2 Luis Matos

Luis Matos OF.  DOB:  1/28/2002.  B-R, T-R.  5'11", 160 lbs.  

2021(A):  .313/.358/.494, 15 HR, 21 SB, 5.7 BB%, 12.4 K%, 491 PA.

I am not sure I remember the Giants having a true 5-tool CF since Willie Mays.  Maybe Chili Davis?  Let me introduce you to Luis Matos, who has a chance to be that guy.  Not the next Willie Mays, mind you.  That's an impossible ask, but Matos has a legitimate shot at being the best Giants CF since Willie Mays.  He is coming off a tremendous age 19 season in A ball with a relatively low BB% being the only question mark.

Fangraphs capsule summary:  "Matos has plus-plus bat speed and the wheels to stay in center field, with only his aggressive approach holding him back from the 55 tier."  In my opinion, that's being just a bit nitpicky for a 19 yo kid.  If the low BB% was tied to a high K rate, there would be real reason for worry.  As it is, he really only needs to be slightly more selective and has plenty of time to figure it out. 

Marco Luciano has more present power and probably more future power potential, but with serious questions about his ability to stick at SS, Luis Matos is closing in fast on a legitimate claim for #1 Giants prospect.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #3 Joey Bart

 Joey Bart C.  DOB:  12/15/1996.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 238 lbs.

2021(AAA):  .294/.358/.472, 10 HR, 7.5 BB%, 29.4 K%, 279 PA.

2021(MLB):  2 for 6, 0 BB, 2 K.

Joey Bart was the Giants #2 overall draft pick in 2018 after an outstanding junior season at Georgia Tech, somewhat of a catcher factory school.  He's a huge, hulking dude but surprisingly athletic for his size.  While he does not project to be an elite defensive catcher, he's more than adequate.  The big question is with the bat.  The raw power is immense, but is it usable?  After a rough MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he was assigned to AAA last year with hopes of dominating.  Although his slash line looks solid on the surface it came with a K rate approaching the red zone.

After Buster Posey's retirement, FZ gave Bart a vote of confidence saying he showed he is ready.  That has not completely quieted the doubters and talks of the Giants going out and getting another veteran C to start the season have grown louder as the lockout has stretched on.  If you look at what's available on the FA market, any reasonable person would conclude the Giants are probably better off to role with Bart and Casali and hope Ricardo Genoves(if he doesn't get nabbed in the Rule 5 Draft) and Patrick Bailey are ready to stand in the gap if necessary.  Being handed the starting C job from day one of the season, whenever it occurs, is a tremendous opportunity that few prospects get.  It's up to Bart to grab it by the throat.  We'll all be watching with interest.  If he taps into a fraction of his power potential, he'll be a plus.  Taking over as the #1 catcher immediately after Buster Posey has to be intimidating.  Us fans need to realize nobody is going to replace Buster Posey but maybe someday we say the same about Joey Bart.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #4 Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos OF.  DOB:  9/7/1999.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 188 lbs.

2021(AA):  .237/.323/.432, 10 HR, 7 SB, 10.2 BB%, 27.4 K%, 266 PA.

2021(AAA):  .272/.323/.399, 4 HR, 8 SB, 6.6 BB%, 28.4 K%, 229 PA. 

It's a bit challenging to get a good read on Heliot Ramos which is probably why his stock has slipped a bit.  The numbers are good but not dominating.  On the other hand, he split time between AA and AAA in his age 21 season which is quite young for the levels.  Of course the corollary to that is we have every right to expect him to come back this year and dominate AAA and force the MLB door open.  

The BB% at AA is encouraging.  My own "eyeball" metric for BB% is anything over 10 is excellent, 8-10 is good, 6-8 is OK.  Under 6 is a big red flag.  Of course BB% has to be interpreted in context.  In general, higher BB%'s tend to correlate with higher K rates because 1.  You can't strike out unless you get to a two-strike count first.  Patient hitters tend to have more two-strike counts.  2.  If I understand correctly, the Giants teach their hitters to not shorten up their swings and "protect the plate" on two strike counts.  They are willing to accept more K's in return for more long ball ops.  With that said, my "rule of thumb" metric for K% is <15% is elite, 15-20% is good, 20-25% acceptable, 25-30% worrisome and over 30% is "red flag" territory.  Ramos' ratios are not great but not terrible either and he appears to be capable of improvement after adjustment to level.

The last issue with Ramos is body type.  Last year, Fangraphs described him as a "boulder stacked on two Iberico hams".  Just looking at some video footage from last season, I am quite sure Heliot weighs way more than his listed 188 lbs.  Granted, almost all of that weight appears to be muscle but it's a body that appears to be at risk for not aging well and you have to wonder if it currently qualifies for being "muscle bound".  In trying to think of comps for OF's with that body type, I would put forward Kirby Puckett, Perhaps Torii Hunter, Ron Leflore and if you want to go back to my childhood days, the "Toy Cannon", Jim Wynn.  

I am almost certain the Giants will add a frontline OF before the season starts but if they don't, there is an outside chance Heliot Ramos will start the season on the 26 man active roster but more likely he goes back to AAA where the hope is he will dominate and position himself for a midseason opportunity.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #5 Kyle Harrison

Kyle Harrison LHP.  DOB:  8/12/2001.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2021(A):  4-3, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 14.32 K%, 4.74 BB%.  GB/FB= 1.57.

Kyle Harrison was the Giants third round draft pick in 2020, but got late first round money as the Giants scraped together enough money from below-slot bonuses elsewhere to give him a $2.5 M signing bonus.  His pro debut made that look like a smart allocation of bonus dollars as he dominated the Cal League at age 19.  His FB, which was reported to be in the low 90's in HS ticked up to a reported 93-98 MPH and was backed up by a slider and changeup.  That arsenal enabled him to strike out 1.5 batters per inning. Couple the K's with a strong groundball tendency is generally considered the holy grail of pitching.  

He's got a strong frame with features reminiscent of Logan Webb.  Fangraphs describes him as having a "noticeably strong lower half, which he uses to get low to the ground and push off the mound for a monstrous lunge toward home plate."  In fact, you can think of him as being roughly a mirror image of Logan Webb!  On video, the delivery looks pretty violent to me with the lunge creating a sudden acceleration with a sudden deceleration and significant recoil at the finish.  That violence may explain a higher walk rate than ideal, something to watch going forward.  

Let's take a look at a couple of comp seasons:

Madison Bumgarner LHP:

2008(Age 18)(A):  15-3, 1.46, 141.2 IP, 10.42 K/9, 1.33 BB/9, GB/FB= 1.07.  Bumgarner was a year younger, had a lower K rate, a neutral GB tendency, but a much better BB/9.  The Cal league tends to favor hitters much more than the Sally.  Bum made his MLB debut late the next season at age 19, came up for good midseason 2010 and won a WS game that year.

Logan Webb RHP:

2016(Age 19)(A):  2-3, 6.21, 42 IP, 6.43 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, GB/FB= 2.03.  Webb had two short seasons of pro development before his age 19 A season which ended prematurely due to Tommy John surgery. Although he pitched in 2017, the surgery obviously set his development back by a couple of years and he did not make his MLB debut until 2019. He did not reach double digit K/9's until later in his pro career.

Matt Cain RHP:

2003(Age 18)(A):  4-4, 2.55, 74 IP, 10.95 K/9, 2.92 BB/9.  Cainer made his MLB debut late 2005 at age 20 and never looked back.

In summary, Kyle Harrison comps favorably to 3 ace or near-ace level pitchers in relatively recent Giants history two of whom moved fast through the system.  Command issues may slow his MLB ETA and I worry about injury risk with the violent delivery.

DrB's 2022 Giants Top 50 Prospects Profiles: #10 - 6

 10.  Aeverson Arteaga SS.  DOB:  3/16/2003.  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 170 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .294/.357/.503, 9 HR, 8 SB, 10.2 BB%, 30.5 K%, 226 PA.

The Giants gave Arteaga a 7 figure bonus during the 2019 international signing period.  His pro debut was delayed due to COVID restrictions but he turned heads with homers in 4 consecutive games in July in Arizona.  Fangraphs scouting report cautions that the Giants complex is a bit of a wind tunnel, but raves about his defense and speed.  He should get a chance to prove the doubters wrong with San Jose in 2022.  He has plus defensive tools across the board making all the plays and throws.  Marco Luciano may be a better all-around prospect, but Arteaga appears to have a significantly better chance to be the Giants SS of the future, especially if he can hit at all.

9.  Hunter Bishop OF.  DOB:  6/25/1998.  B-L, T-R.  6'5", 210 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  .160/.313/.200, 15.6 BB%, 31.3 K%, 32 PA.

2021(A):  .000/.111/.000, 11.1 BB%, 77.6 K%, 9 PA.

2021(A+):  .167/.333/.250, 13.3 BB%, 26.7 K%, 15 PA. 

2021(AFL):  .262/.373/.381, 6 BB, 20 K, 51 PA.

#10 overall pick in FZ's first Giants draft in 2019.  Put up some extreme 3 true outcomes numbers in his pro debut.  2021 data very limited by injuries but a major disappointment to say the least.  Bishop's stock rebounded a bit in the AFL capped off by a HR in the Fall Stars game, but he remains a low contact hitter whose value will likely be completely dependent on power.  He gets ranked this high mainly on draft pedigree and what Fangraphs scouting report calls "exceptionally loud tools."  He desperately needs a full healthy season at no lower than A+ level in 2022.

8.  Patrick Bailey C.  DOB:  5/29/1999.  B-S, T-R.  6'1", 210 lbs.

2021(A+):  .185/.290/.296, 2 HR, 11.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, 155 PA.

2021(R AZ):  .400/.571/.400, 28.6 BB%, 14.3 K%, 7 PA.

2021(R A):  .322/.415/.531, 7 HR, 13.5 BB%, 22.7 K%, 207 PA.

2021(AFL):  .292/.375/.417, HR, 12.5 BB%, 30.4 K%, 56 PA.

#13 overall pick in the 2020 draft.  Pro debut was a faceplant in A+ ball, but Bailey got his feet under him in San Jose and dominated the Cal League after a short tune up in the complex in AZ.  That success carried over into the Arizona Fall League raising hopes for a more successful 2022 season at higher levels.  Fangraphs is enthusiastic enough to rank him as the Giants #3 prospect.  A successful switch-hitting catcher is incredibly valuable.  He just needs to keep hitting.

7.  Jairo Pomares OF.  DOB:  8/4/2000.  B-L, T-R.  6'1", 185 lbs.

2021(A):  .372/.429/.693, 14 HR, 6.7 BB%, 24.1 K%, 224 PA.

2021(A+):  .262/.269/.505, 6 HR, 1.0 BB%, 31.7 K%, 104 PA.

Jairo Pomares has a sweet swing and toonder in his bat.  As you can see, he got extremely swing happy after his promotion to A+.  That's something to watch going forward.  His walk rate plunged after a midseason promotion in 2019 too and that corrected after he became more comfortable at the level.  The power appears to be legit, though.  He's still young enough to take his time adjusting to levels as he moves up.

6. Will Bednar RHP.  DOB:  6/13/2000.  6'2", 229 lbs.

2021(R AZ):  0-0, 0.00, 2 IP, 13.5 K/9, 4.50 BB/9.

2021(A):  0-0, 1.80, 5 IP, 5.40 K/9, 0.00 BB/9.

Bednar's stock rose dramatically through the 2021 college season culminating in domination of the College World Series.  The Giants made him the 13'th overall pick in the draft.  Bednar has a strong, sturdy frame.  His fastball velocity ranges from 92-97 MPH.  He commands it to both sides of the strike zone and can effectively elevate it in two strike counts.  His best pitch is a sharp slider which he can throw in and out of the zone.  Per Fangraphs scouting report he rarely used his changeup in college but it's not a bad pitch and should quickly contribute to his pro repertoire.  Beyond potential injuries, I see no reason for him to not move quickly with a possible mid-late season MLB debut. Fun Facts:  1.  Will Bednar's brother, David, is a reliever for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  2.  The Giants have taken Mississippi State alums in the first round of three drafts:  Will Clark 1B 1985, Chris Stratton RHP 2012 and Bednar.

Hot Stove Update: Fangraphs Publishes Five Year Projections For Seiya Suzuki

One of the more anticipated developments to follow the end of MLB's lockout, whenever that occurs, is the signing of Japanese free agent Seiya Suzuki.   Anticipation is running particularly high for Giants fans since their team is thought to be on Suzuki's short list of teams he is interested in signing with.  Suzuki put up spectacular numbers with the Hiroshima Carp in 2021:

.317/.433/.639, 38 HR, 9 SB, 533 PA.  

What that might translate to in MLB has been a mystery due to lack of MLB stats to plug into projection systems.  Dan Szymborski fixed that with a just-released ZIPS projection on Fangraphs based on comparative data from prior players with stats from both leagues.  Better yet, the projections are for 5 seasons, the projected duration of a Suzuki contract.  So without further ado, here they are:

2022:  .287/.351/.480, 23 HR, 12 SB, 529 AB, 2.6 fWAR.

2023:  .285/.350/.488, 23 HR, 10 SB, 502 AB, 2.5 fWAR.

2024:  .282/.349/.479, 21 HR, 10 SB, 489 AB, 2.2 fWAR.

2025:  .281/.347/.479, 21 HR, 9 SB, 474 AB, 2.1 fWAR.

2026:  .278/.341/.466, 19 HR, 8 SB, 457 AB, 1.6 fWAR.

It's important to understand that these numbers represent the mean of a range of possible outcomes.  Obviously it is highly unlikely that a player would put up such consistent numbers for 5 seasons.  Some seasons would likely be better and some worse.  The system also does not account for catastrophic injuries.  

You may be interested in how these projections compare to other potential free agent signings:

Kris Bryant(2022):  .261/.351/.463, 23 HR, 7 SB, 590 PA, 3.1 fWAR.

Nick Castellanos(2022):  .287/.340/.534, 31 HR, 3 SB, 603 PA, 2.6 fWAR.

Tommy Pham(2022):  .246/.346/.397, 15 HR, 14 SB, 537 PA, 1.5 fWAR.

Andrew McCutchen(2022):  .232/.336/.426, 19 HR, 6 SB, 470 PA, 1.0 fWAR.

J.D. Davis(2022):  .262/.342/.430, 12 HR, 2 SB, 371 PA, 1.3 fWAR.(possible trade candidate).

Of course Kris Bryant and Nick Castellanos are projected to cost significantly more than Seiya Suzuki, but I'm not so sure because Suzuki's market seems to have heated up during the lockout while Bryant's and Castellanos' seem to have cooled.  I'm not sure why Bryant's fWAR projects higher, maybe due to positional versatility?  Castellanos' value obviously takes a hit on defense.  Pham and Cutch would be bargain shopping deals and Davis' WAR value takes a hit due to a history of part time play with the Mets.