Got my BA in the mail yesterday. It has the top 10 prospects from the NL West teams. Here's what they have for the Giants:
1. Kyle Crick, RHP. BD 11/30/1992. 6'4", 225 lbs. Drafted 2011 Supplemental First Round(HS).
High A: 3-1, 1.57, 69 IP, 39 BB, 95 K.
2. Edwin Escobar, LHP. BD 4/22/1992. 6'1", 195 lbs. Obained in trade with Texas Rangers for Ben Snyder in 2010. High A: 3-4, 2.89, 75 IP, 17 BB, 92 K's. AA: 5-4, 2.67, 54 IP, 13 BB, 54 K.
3. Chris Stratton, RHP. BD 8/22/1990. 6'3", 186 lbs. Drafted First Round 2012(College).
Low A: 9-3, 3.27, 132 IP, 47 BB, 123 K.
4. Adalberto Mejia, LHP. BD 6/20/1993. 6'3", 205 lbs. Signed Dominican Republic 2011 $350 K.
High A: 7-4, 3.31, 87 IP, 23 BB, 89 K.
5. Mac Williamson, OF. BD 7/15/1990. 6'4", 245 lbs. Drafted 2012 3'rd round(College).
High A: .292/.375/.504, 25 HR, 10 SB.
6. Christian Arroyo, SS. BD 5/30/1995. 6'1", 180 lbs. Drafted 2013 First Round(HS).
Rookie AZL .326/.388/.511, 2 HR, 3 SB in 184 AB.
7. Heath Hembree, RHP. BD 1/13/1989. 6'4", 205 lbs. Drafted 2010, 5'th Round(College).
AAA 1-4, 4.07, 55 IP, 16 BB, 63 K, 31 Saves. MLB 0-0, 0.00, 8 IP, 2 BB, 12 K.
8. Ty Blach, LHP. BD 10/20/1990. 6'2", 200 lbs. Drafted 2012, 5'th Round(College).
High A 12-4, 2.90, 130 IP, 18 BB, 117 K.
9. Joe Panik, 2B. BD 10/30/1990. 6'1", 195 lbs. Drafted 2011 First Round(College).
AA .257/.333/.347, 4 HR, 10 SB, 58 BB, 68 K.
10. Clayton Blackburn, RHP. BD 1/6/1993. 6'3", 220 lbs. Drafted 2011, 16'th Round(HS).
High A 7-5, 3.65, 133 IP, 35 BB, 138 K.
Comment: I can't find too much to argue about with this list. There are two additional prospects who I think deserve consideration for top 10 placement: OF Gustavo Cabrera and RHP Keury Mella:
Cabrera is a true 5 tool prospect who convinced me his bat will play with his second half performance in the DSL. Unfortunately, his entire future career is currently in the balance due to a severe laceration to his right wrist suffered in an apparent freak home accident. I'm not sure how you rank a prospect like that which will be the subject of a future post. Prior to the accident, I was actually toying with the thought of ranking him #2 overall!
Keury Mella had a nice AZL campaign in 2013 and lit up the fall instructional league with a 96 MPH fastball and an imposing demeaner on the mound. If you have not seen the videos, look them up! I think Cove Chatter still has links to them. Cove Chatter is linked to the left. It is my belief that Mella may well be the #2 pitching prospect in the system right now. As you can see, that is saying a lot!
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Phil Hughes to the Twins
RHP Phil Hughes has agreed to terms with the Minnesota Twins for a reported 3 years/$24 M according to MBLTR.
Well, I think we just found out why Sabes folded his cards and signed Ryan Vogelsong to a 1 year deal. I really envisioned Hughes signing a deal similar to Dan Haren and Josh Johnson, a 1 year deal with a team that plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium which would allow him to rebuild his value and sign a bigger deal next year. Seems like the Twins and he had other ideas. I've always liked Phil Hughes and I think he has a lot of upside, but there is serious risk there too. Given the Giants overall situation, I much prefer a 1 year deal for Vogey to a multiyear deal for Phil Hughes.
The Twins have now added Ricky Nolasco and Hughes. Given the pathetic state of the Twins pitching last year, Nolasco and Hughes cannot be worse and give them some serious upside, especially pitching in that stadium.
Well, I think we just found out why Sabes folded his cards and signed Ryan Vogelsong to a 1 year deal. I really envisioned Hughes signing a deal similar to Dan Haren and Josh Johnson, a 1 year deal with a team that plays in a pitcher-friendly stadium which would allow him to rebuild his value and sign a bigger deal next year. Seems like the Twins and he had other ideas. I've always liked Phil Hughes and I think he has a lot of upside, but there is serious risk there too. Given the Giants overall situation, I much prefer a 1 year deal for Vogey to a multiyear deal for Phil Hughes.
The Twins have now added Ricky Nolasco and Hughes. Given the pathetic state of the Twins pitching last year, Nolasco and Hughes cannot be worse and give them some serious upside, especially pitching in that stadium.
Down on the Farm: AFL Wrap- Kyle Crick
Kyle Crick is the undisputed top prospect in the Giants organization. He had a tremendously successful High A campaign for San Jose compiling a record of 3-1, 1.57, 68.2 IP, 39 BB, 95 K's. The only negatives being some shaky control and an early season oblique injury that caused him to miss 6 weeks of the season. He was sent to the AFL to make up for some of that lost time. While he started off a bit shaky(he gave up 3 ER in 2 IP in his first appearance), he finished with a flourish, 4 consecutive scoreless IP with a composite line of 0-0, 0.00, 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 12 K's. He reportedly consistently hit 96-98 MPH with a changeup in the high 80's.
The logical place for him to begin 2014 is AA Richmond. He still needs better consistency in his control and how to pitch his way out of trouble, but the stuff is there. Although it might be better for him to spend the entire year in the minors, if he's pitching well and the need arises, I could see him being available for MLB duty as early as midseason.
The logical place for him to begin 2014 is AA Richmond. He still needs better consistency in his control and how to pitch his way out of trouble, but the stuff is there. Although it might be better for him to spend the entire year in the minors, if he's pitching well and the need arises, I could see him being available for MLB duty as early as midseason.
Scouting the Draft: Sean Reid-Foley
Sean Reid-Foley is yet another HS RH power arm out of Florida. He's big and solid, listed at 6'3", 208, by PG and BLF, but looks shorter but heavier to me in the video. BA has him at 6'1", 218 which looks about right to my eye. His 4S FB goes 91-95 according to a BA scouting report. BLF has him at 88-92 maxed out at 94. He also has a 2S that is a tick slower, a slider and a changeup that he does not use often.
His HS stat line for last year: 6-3, 1.00, 70.1 IP, 33 BB, 117 K. He has also performed very well in showcase events. In one Florida event scouted by BA he struck out 6 batters in 3 IP allowing 1 hit and 1 walk.
BLF has him ranked at #15. BA has him at #31. Matt Garrioch at Minor League Ball has him all the way down at #67 which would put him well into the second round.
His HS stat line for last year: 6-3, 1.00, 70.1 IP, 33 BB, 117 K. He has also performed very well in showcase events. In one Florida event scouted by BA he struck out 6 batters in 3 IP allowing 1 hit and 1 walk.
BLF has him ranked at #15. BA has him at #31. Matt Garrioch at Minor League Ball has him all the way down at #67 which would put him well into the second round.
Friday, November 29, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Giants Agree to Terms With Ryan Vogelsong
The Giants have agreed to terms with Ryan Vogelsong on a 1 year contract with a base salary of a reported $5 M plus incentives that could take it up into the $7-8 M range. My first reaction to this news is, whytheheck didn't they just pick up his option and avoid all the drama? I mean, for a team whose owner brags about not chiseling players and making them feel wanted, well, this seems like small potatoes to me!
Alex P over on Giants Extra brings up a quote from Sabes that I didn't remember to the effect that the Giants won't make Vogey compete for a spot in the rotation. If that is true, then Sabean is likely done shopping for starting pitching this offseason and will now turn his attention to finding a LF, most likely via trade.
So, let's stand back and look at what the Giants accomplished with re-tooling the rotation. They replaced Zito with Huddy.......and that's it! They now have to hope for major bounceback seasons from 3/5's of the rotation! Man, I just don't know. That's a whole lot of hoping! Not that it won't happen, but when you couple the declines in performance with loss of velocity for Cainer, Timmy and Vogey, I have to think there's at least 1 or 2 of those that aren't coming back. Huddy is not young and he's coming off a major injury, albeit not to his arm, so he's far from a given either.
Make no mistake. We can talk about adding a bat for LF till the cows come home, but the 2014 season will be a success or failure on the performance of the starting rotation. At this point, I'm not sure how much confidence I have in that.
Alex P over on Giants Extra brings up a quote from Sabes that I didn't remember to the effect that the Giants won't make Vogey compete for a spot in the rotation. If that is true, then Sabean is likely done shopping for starting pitching this offseason and will now turn his attention to finding a LF, most likely via trade.
So, let's stand back and look at what the Giants accomplished with re-tooling the rotation. They replaced Zito with Huddy.......and that's it! They now have to hope for major bounceback seasons from 3/5's of the rotation! Man, I just don't know. That's a whole lot of hoping! Not that it won't happen, but when you couple the declines in performance with loss of velocity for Cainer, Timmy and Vogey, I have to think there's at least 1 or 2 of those that aren't coming back. Huddy is not young and he's coming off a major injury, albeit not to his arm, so he's far from a given either.
Make no mistake. We can talk about adding a bat for LF till the cows come home, but the 2014 season will be a success or failure on the performance of the starting rotation. At this point, I'm not sure how much confidence I have in that.
Down on the Farm: AFL Wrap- Andrew Susac
Andrew Susac was the Giants second round draft pick in 2011 out of Oregon State. He's used to wearing orange and black! The Giants gave him an aggressive assignment for his first professional experience in 202 playing for high A San Jose. One thing to remember about college catchers is they do not generally call pitches as it is standard practice for the coaches to call pitches from the dugout. That makes for a significant adjustment when they hit pro ball. Susac's first pro season was spent making this and other defensive adjustments. On the offensive side of the ball, he has a good season but maybe not quite what Giants prospect watchers were hoping to see:
.244/.351/.380, 9 HR, 55 BB, 100 K in 361 AB. The 12.9% walk rate is excellent while the 23.5% K rate is manageable, especially coming from a guy who walks that much. Obviously you would like to see more power.
AA and the Eastern League is usually kryptonite for Giants hitting prospects, but Susac actually improved his numbers there in 2013: .256/.362/.458, 12 HR, 42 BB, 68 K in 262 AB. That is good for a 13.5% walk rate and a 21.9% K rate. He started out much stronger than his final numbers. His numbers declined as the season progressed and he ultimately had to shut it down early due to injuries.
The AFL presented a test. Was the decline in numbers over the course of the season due to normal regression or due to fatigue and injuries? While the AFL cannot fully answer that question due to sample size, it can be a gauge. Susac came out and crushed it! .360/.507/.480, 2 HR, 16 BB, 11 K in 50 AB.
Depending on where the Giants think Susac is with his defense, I would expect him to be the starting catcher for AAA Fresno in 2014. At this point, the bat looks promising, even exciting. The big question will be whether he can survive the physical demands of playing the catcher position.
.244/.351/.380, 9 HR, 55 BB, 100 K in 361 AB. The 12.9% walk rate is excellent while the 23.5% K rate is manageable, especially coming from a guy who walks that much. Obviously you would like to see more power.
AA and the Eastern League is usually kryptonite for Giants hitting prospects, but Susac actually improved his numbers there in 2013: .256/.362/.458, 12 HR, 42 BB, 68 K in 262 AB. That is good for a 13.5% walk rate and a 21.9% K rate. He started out much stronger than his final numbers. His numbers declined as the season progressed and he ultimately had to shut it down early due to injuries.
The AFL presented a test. Was the decline in numbers over the course of the season due to normal regression or due to fatigue and injuries? While the AFL cannot fully answer that question due to sample size, it can be a gauge. Susac came out and crushed it! .360/.507/.480, 2 HR, 16 BB, 11 K in 50 AB.
Depending on where the Giants think Susac is with his defense, I would expect him to be the starting catcher for AAA Fresno in 2014. At this point, the bat looks promising, even exciting. The big question will be whether he can survive the physical demands of playing the catcher position.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Hot Stove Update: Giants Play DFA Roulette
The Giants made a flurry of pre-Thanksgiving moves that are likely to leave a few people feeling not so thankful this Thanksgiving. I guess in this game for every unthankful person, there is a thankful one.
it all started off with the official signing of Javier Lopez which resulted in Jose Mijares being outrighted to Fresno. Mijares refused to accept the assignment and is now a free agent. That is a bit interesting because the Giants then turned right around and signed up LHP Jose De Paula who had recently been DFA'd himself by the Padres. Also coming to light was a prior signing of RHP Erik Cordier who is 28 years old and a longterm AAA pitcher with several organizations. These two signings resulted in the DFA'ing of Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero, moves that may not sit will with some Giants prospect watchers if they end up in other organizations.
Let's take a look at the lefty shuffle first because the Giants drew some attention from our favorite commentator over on Fangraphs for their priorities here. Dave Cameron was asked the following question in his chat yesterday: "Are situational lefties that rare teams need to give them 3 year deals or teams just reluctant to use younger "kids"?
Cameron: "The Giants are certainly paying prices like its a severe inflationary period. I think they could have just kept Mijares and given him Lopez' role and been fine."
No, Dave! The Giants are not overvaluing lefty specialists! You are undervaluing high leverage, late inning situations and not accounting for the fact that there are about twice as many good lefthanded hitters in the major leagues as good lefthanded pitchers. That value becomes magnified in the postseason. Here's just one situation that the Giants could well face in the 2014 postseason: Dodgers have runners on base in a tie game, late innings, Adrian Gonzalez at the plate. Would you rather have Lopez facing him or Mijares? Before you scoff at that answer, you might want to check in with Charlie Manuel or Jim Leyland and get their opinion. Brian Sabean is wearing 2 rings in no small part due to his willingness to overpay for lefty relievers. What's the value of that? Not sure Dave has a formula for that yet.
Another point that was overlooked about Mijares: MLBTR estimated his arbitration award at $2.1 M. Now, while Javier Lopez is pretty much irreplaceable, Mijares is clearly a fungible asset. There is no way the Giants were going to tender him a contract and risk that kind of payment for a fungible asset.
I have to say, when you follow kids through the minor league system, you become attached to them. We do not know as yet if this is the end of the road for Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero in the Giants organization, but it is certainly possible. Sad faces all around if it is. Monell had probably been passed by Andrew Susac on the catching depth chart after Susac's successful AFL stint. That would leave Monell at no better than 4'th behind Posey, Sanchez and Susac and possibly 5'th with Quiroz in the mix. Monell also was not likely to get much playing time in Fresno with Susac likely moving up to AAA.
Francisco Peguero was once one of the most highly regarded prospects in the Giants system regularly making BA's Giants Top 10. His development was slowed by a series of knee injuries. He's a player with a CF offensive game but who is now relegated to playing corner positions. Last year, he was clearly passed on the depth chart by Juan Perez who can play CF and play it very well. Pegs was out of options and had virtually no chance to making the 25 man roster so would have been exposed to waivers eventually anyway.
Monell and Peguero were replaced on the 40 man roster by LHP Jose De Paula and RHP Erik Cordier. De Paula was recently DFA'd by San Diego De Paula will be 26 yo this next season. He has been used mostly as a starter in the minors with his most recent stop at AA Midland where he put up a line of 4-6, 3.86, 74.2 IP, 11 BB, 57 K, GO/AO= 1.27. FB is reportedly 90-92 MPH. He has a pretty significant L-R split. It has been suggested that his future may be as a lefty specialist. He has at least 2 option years left so eases the 25 man active roster crunch for the Giants.
Erik Cordier is a 28 year old minor league journeyman most recently pitching for Indianapolis, the Pirates AAA team. He's a big dude at 6'4", 250 lbs who reportedly throws very hard, up to 100 MPH. Like many hard throwers, he has struggled with his control. His most recent line was 4-2, 4.58, 53 IP, 28 BB, 65 K, 4 Saves exclusively out of the bullpen. He has one option left. He's yet another in a long line of high velocity RHP's the Giants will try to harness for future bullpen duty.
Late word on MLBTR has the Giants nearing a contract agreement with Ryan Vogelsong which really makes a lot of sense for both sides. That would be a nice Thanksgiving present for the Vogelsong family!
it all started off with the official signing of Javier Lopez which resulted in Jose Mijares being outrighted to Fresno. Mijares refused to accept the assignment and is now a free agent. That is a bit interesting because the Giants then turned right around and signed up LHP Jose De Paula who had recently been DFA'd himself by the Padres. Also coming to light was a prior signing of RHP Erik Cordier who is 28 years old and a longterm AAA pitcher with several organizations. These two signings resulted in the DFA'ing of Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero, moves that may not sit will with some Giants prospect watchers if they end up in other organizations.
Let's take a look at the lefty shuffle first because the Giants drew some attention from our favorite commentator over on Fangraphs for their priorities here. Dave Cameron was asked the following question in his chat yesterday: "Are situational lefties that rare teams need to give them 3 year deals or teams just reluctant to use younger "kids"?
Cameron: "The Giants are certainly paying prices like its a severe inflationary period. I think they could have just kept Mijares and given him Lopez' role and been fine."
No, Dave! The Giants are not overvaluing lefty specialists! You are undervaluing high leverage, late inning situations and not accounting for the fact that there are about twice as many good lefthanded hitters in the major leagues as good lefthanded pitchers. That value becomes magnified in the postseason. Here's just one situation that the Giants could well face in the 2014 postseason: Dodgers have runners on base in a tie game, late innings, Adrian Gonzalez at the plate. Would you rather have Lopez facing him or Mijares? Before you scoff at that answer, you might want to check in with Charlie Manuel or Jim Leyland and get their opinion. Brian Sabean is wearing 2 rings in no small part due to his willingness to overpay for lefty relievers. What's the value of that? Not sure Dave has a formula for that yet.
Another point that was overlooked about Mijares: MLBTR estimated his arbitration award at $2.1 M. Now, while Javier Lopez is pretty much irreplaceable, Mijares is clearly a fungible asset. There is no way the Giants were going to tender him a contract and risk that kind of payment for a fungible asset.
I have to say, when you follow kids through the minor league system, you become attached to them. We do not know as yet if this is the end of the road for Johnny Monell and Francisco Peguero in the Giants organization, but it is certainly possible. Sad faces all around if it is. Monell had probably been passed by Andrew Susac on the catching depth chart after Susac's successful AFL stint. That would leave Monell at no better than 4'th behind Posey, Sanchez and Susac and possibly 5'th with Quiroz in the mix. Monell also was not likely to get much playing time in Fresno with Susac likely moving up to AAA.
Francisco Peguero was once one of the most highly regarded prospects in the Giants system regularly making BA's Giants Top 10. His development was slowed by a series of knee injuries. He's a player with a CF offensive game but who is now relegated to playing corner positions. Last year, he was clearly passed on the depth chart by Juan Perez who can play CF and play it very well. Pegs was out of options and had virtually no chance to making the 25 man roster so would have been exposed to waivers eventually anyway.
Monell and Peguero were replaced on the 40 man roster by LHP Jose De Paula and RHP Erik Cordier. De Paula was recently DFA'd by San Diego De Paula will be 26 yo this next season. He has been used mostly as a starter in the minors with his most recent stop at AA Midland where he put up a line of 4-6, 3.86, 74.2 IP, 11 BB, 57 K, GO/AO= 1.27. FB is reportedly 90-92 MPH. He has a pretty significant L-R split. It has been suggested that his future may be as a lefty specialist. He has at least 2 option years left so eases the 25 man active roster crunch for the Giants.
Erik Cordier is a 28 year old minor league journeyman most recently pitching for Indianapolis, the Pirates AAA team. He's a big dude at 6'4", 250 lbs who reportedly throws very hard, up to 100 MPH. Like many hard throwers, he has struggled with his control. His most recent line was 4-2, 4.58, 53 IP, 28 BB, 65 K, 4 Saves exclusively out of the bullpen. He has one option left. He's yet another in a long line of high velocity RHP's the Giants will try to harness for future bullpen duty.
Late word on MLBTR has the Giants nearing a contract agreement with Ryan Vogelsong which really makes a lot of sense for both sides. That would be a nice Thanksgiving present for the Vogelsong family!
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