Playing time is a huge issue in fantasy baseball. Great hitting catchers who play multiple positions or can DH in the AL are way valuable. Also, defense is not a fantasy category unless you are in a very esoteric league.
1. Mike Napoli- He's always been a monster at the plate. Mike Scioscia hated him for some reason. Freed in Texas. May regress a little in BA, but a solid bet to put up huge power numbers again.
2. Carlos Santana- Will play every day in some capacity so will put up big counting stats. BA hurts some, but that should improve.
3. Brian McCann- Playing time is an issue, but he's good enough to still give you big time numbers.
4. Matt Wieters- just a continuation of his normal progression will yield very good numbers, but I think he could break huge.
5. Joe Mauer- Seems a lot healthier this year. Can DH and play some 1B, so should rack up the PA's if he stays healthy. Probably won't crack 20 HR's again in the Twins new ballpark.
6. Miguel Montero- solid numbers are almost a guarantee.
7. Buster Posey- I love Buster Posey as much as anybody, but for fantasy purposes, he has to prove he can stay on the field after that horrific injury.
8. Alex Avila- Had a breakout last year. Can he sustain it?
9. Ryan Doumit- Sleeper alert! Doumit is the reason I might wait on drafting a catcher until late. He's a beast at the plate and he's going to play every day in some capacity with the Twins.
10. Yadier Molina- Great catcher, but defense don't count in fantasy. Solid BA, but not much help otherwise.
11. Jesus Montero- should hit for average and doubles power, but not that park is death to RH power hitters.
12. Wilson Ramos- hit 16 HR's last year and is still very young.
13. Jarrod Saltalamacchia- Also hit 16 HR's last year. A bit of a post hype sleeper?
14. Jonathan Lucroy- I picked him up last year when McCann got hurt. Should have just kept him because McCann was terrible after he came back.
15. Kurt Suzuki- He's bulled up some to try to hit for more power. His past numbers with a few more HR's would be quite interesting.
16. Salvador Perez- He's on enough sleeper lists that he's probably overvalued now.
17. Nick Hundley- Had a strong second half last year, but the park he plays in is a big negative and the Padres acquired Yasmani Grandal for a reason.
18. Wilin Rosario- With Iannetta gone has a clear path to PT and you have to like any hitter in Coors. Very unproven.
19. Devin Mesocoro- Everybody seems to agree he's going to be great. What's not clear is how much PT he'll get from Dusty until Jocketty trades Hanigan.
IMO, Napoli and Santana are in a top tier. They are draftable in the top 20. Catcher is not as thin as it has been in the recent past. In a 10 team league, you can afford to wait, especially if you miss out on Napoli or Santana or don't want them for some reason. In a 12 team league, it gets a bit more dicey and you might want to grab one before the top 6 or 7 go off the board.
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball; Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Major League Baseball; Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Fantasy Focus: 2012 All Breakout Team
Everybody who plays fantasy baseball is interested in "breakout" candidates, players who elevate their games to a higher level and establish themselves as baseball stars. These are distinctly different than Rookie of the Year candidates as well as distinctly different than "sleepers." I will define breakout candidates as players who are no longer eligible for rookie of the year, and who are already well known enough that they are not "sleepers" which implies most people are not expecting much from them. Breakout candidates may or may not come with high expectations already.
C Matt Wieters, Orioles. Wieters was the #4 overall draft pick in 2007. He has hit OK, but not nearly as well as anticipated and has therefore been labeled a disappointment. He has, however, improved each year and with 2 full seasons under his belt may be poised for a breakout into full blown stardom. What may hold him back is the fact that he's a switch-hitter who struggles against RHP's. On the other hand, once he figures out RHP's he should put up monster numbers.
1B Eric Hosmer, Royals. The #2 overall pick in 2008. Hosmer was drafted out of HS. Last year was his MLB debut. He appeared in 128 games with a slash line of .293/.334/.465 with 19 HR and 11 SB. He has all the tools and skills to break out big time in 2012 if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.
1B Justin Smoak, Mariners. Also a first round draft choice in 2008 by the Texas Rangers. Some Giants fans would have preferred the Giants draft him over Buster Posey. He was traded to the Mariners for Cliff Lee in 2010. He's been a disappointment so far, but hit over .300 for the month of September last year.
2B Dustin Ackley, Mariners. Ackley is another highly touted prospect who has been labeled as a disappointment but may just not have had enough time to establish himself. He made his MLB debut last year and put up a line of .273/.348/.417, 16 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB in 333 AB's. You can approximately double all his counting stats to project to a full season which comes out pretty darn good for a 2B let alone a rookie 2B. It only takes a small improvement over the course of a full season and you have an All-Star level performer.
SS Dee Gordon, Dodgers. Sorry to say it, but all this guy has to do is hit about .250 and he may end up with 80 SB's. He seems to play pretty good D too, though not as good as Brandon Crawford. He should be able to prop his BA up with his speed as he has kept his K rate below 15% throughout the minors and his MLB debut. As for Crawford? I would consider him more of a sleeper than a breakout candidate.
3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays. Highly rated prospect traded from the BrewCrew to Toronto in the Shawn Marcum trade. He made his MLB debut last year and went .293/.373.,580 with 9 HR and 7 SB in 171 AB. His minor league record and pedigree suggest that those number just might be sustainable which would translate to a monster full season.
3B Mike Moustakas, Royals. Yet another high first round draft pick by the Royals, Moustakas put up a decent line last year in his MLB debut, .263/.309/367, but he hit .282 in August and .353 in September. Might not hit for a lot of power right away, but he looks like he's going to be a star, possibly as soon as 2012.
3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants. I suppose you could say Pablo has already broken out, but between his ongoing conditioning program and Lasik surgery to fix his eyes, I'm thinking we ain't seen nothin' yet. I don't think a .330 BA with 40 HR's is out of the question.
OF Dexter Fowler, Rockies. Fowler seems to have hit a plateau the last 3 years, but he seemed to shift into a higher gear after the All-Star break last year with a line of .288/.380/.498. He has the tools to do even better than that.
OF Desmond Jennings, Rays. Highly touted rookie who the Rays have developed slowly, too slowly for some fans taste. He put up a line of .259/.356/.449 with 10 HR and 20 SB in 247 AB in is MLB debut last year.
OF Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays. Last year was a disaster for the star-crossed young phenom. I think the Jays will give him a fair chance to bounce back and he certainly has the tools and skills to pull off a breakout.
OF Austin Jackson, Tigers. Another toolsy guy who has been so-so in his MLB career so far. Has the tools to break out at any time.
P Steven Strasburg Nationals. Hard to think of a guy hyped as much as Strasburg as having a breakout season, but that's exactly what I expect in his first full season back from TJ surgery.
Brandon Belt would be on this list if I thought he was going to be a starter for the Giants all season, but I expect to see him start out 2012 in Fresno.
Who do you think might "break out" in 2012?
C Matt Wieters, Orioles. Wieters was the #4 overall draft pick in 2007. He has hit OK, but not nearly as well as anticipated and has therefore been labeled a disappointment. He has, however, improved each year and with 2 full seasons under his belt may be poised for a breakout into full blown stardom. What may hold him back is the fact that he's a switch-hitter who struggles against RHP's. On the other hand, once he figures out RHP's he should put up monster numbers.
1B Eric Hosmer, Royals. The #2 overall pick in 2008. Hosmer was drafted out of HS. Last year was his MLB debut. He appeared in 128 games with a slash line of .293/.334/.465 with 19 HR and 11 SB. He has all the tools and skills to break out big time in 2012 if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.
1B Justin Smoak, Mariners. Also a first round draft choice in 2008 by the Texas Rangers. Some Giants fans would have preferred the Giants draft him over Buster Posey. He was traded to the Mariners for Cliff Lee in 2010. He's been a disappointment so far, but hit over .300 for the month of September last year.
2B Dustin Ackley, Mariners. Ackley is another highly touted prospect who has been labeled as a disappointment but may just not have had enough time to establish himself. He made his MLB debut last year and put up a line of .273/.348/.417, 16 2B, 7 3B, 6 HR, 6 SB in 333 AB's. You can approximately double all his counting stats to project to a full season which comes out pretty darn good for a 2B let alone a rookie 2B. It only takes a small improvement over the course of a full season and you have an All-Star level performer.
SS Dee Gordon, Dodgers. Sorry to say it, but all this guy has to do is hit about .250 and he may end up with 80 SB's. He seems to play pretty good D too, though not as good as Brandon Crawford. He should be able to prop his BA up with his speed as he has kept his K rate below 15% throughout the minors and his MLB debut. As for Crawford? I would consider him more of a sleeper than a breakout candidate.
3B Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays. Highly rated prospect traded from the BrewCrew to Toronto in the Shawn Marcum trade. He made his MLB debut last year and went .293/.373.,580 with 9 HR and 7 SB in 171 AB. His minor league record and pedigree suggest that those number just might be sustainable which would translate to a monster full season.
3B Mike Moustakas, Royals. Yet another high first round draft pick by the Royals, Moustakas put up a decent line last year in his MLB debut, .263/.309/367, but he hit .282 in August and .353 in September. Might not hit for a lot of power right away, but he looks like he's going to be a star, possibly as soon as 2012.
3B Pablo Sandoval, Giants. I suppose you could say Pablo has already broken out, but between his ongoing conditioning program and Lasik surgery to fix his eyes, I'm thinking we ain't seen nothin' yet. I don't think a .330 BA with 40 HR's is out of the question.
OF Dexter Fowler, Rockies. Fowler seems to have hit a plateau the last 3 years, but he seemed to shift into a higher gear after the All-Star break last year with a line of .288/.380/.498. He has the tools to do even better than that.
OF Desmond Jennings, Rays. Highly touted rookie who the Rays have developed slowly, too slowly for some fans taste. He put up a line of .259/.356/.449 with 10 HR and 20 SB in 247 AB in is MLB debut last year.
OF Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays. Last year was a disaster for the star-crossed young phenom. I think the Jays will give him a fair chance to bounce back and he certainly has the tools and skills to pull off a breakout.
OF Austin Jackson, Tigers. Another toolsy guy who has been so-so in his MLB career so far. Has the tools to break out at any time.
P Steven Strasburg Nationals. Hard to think of a guy hyped as much as Strasburg as having a breakout season, but that's exactly what I expect in his first full season back from TJ surgery.
Brandon Belt would be on this list if I thought he was going to be a starter for the Giants all season, but I expect to see him start out 2012 in Fresno.
Who do you think might "break out" in 2012?
Monday, January 16, 2012
Fantasy Focus: 2012 Savvy Vets Keepers
I haven't posted anything about the Savvy Vets, my fantasy baseball team, or fantasy baseball in general for awhile. Savvy Vets is in a 10 team league, standard 5X5 H2H rules. We are allowed to keep 3 hitters and 3 pitchers from the previous year. The problem in choosing "Keepers" is that Savvy Vets is thin in top tier players but very deep in 2'nd tier guys. Here's the full roster:
C Brian McCann
1B Paul Konerko
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Chipper Jones
SS Alexei Ramirez
IF Michael Morse
OF Justin Upton
OF Omar Infante
OF Coco Crisp
UT David Ortiz
UT Eric Hosmer
SP CC Sabathia
SP Michael Pineda
SP Ervin Santana
SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Matt Cain
RP Craig Kimbrel
RP Mark Melancon
RP Brad Lidge
P Frank Francisco
P Bobby Parnell
BN Chris Young(OF)
BN Bartolo Colon
BN Madison Bumgarner
BN Derek Holland
BN Bud Norris
DL Jonathan Sanchez
Comments:
Closers are insanely overvalued in this league. Between the RP and P categories, it's possible to have 5 closers in your starting lineup. We have at least 3 managers who hoard closers. If you want to compete in the Saves category, you have to take reliable closers early and often. Many of them are keepers. I tried punting Saves one year and found that the numbers really work against you if you punt any one category.
Justin Upton and CC Sabathia are the 2 obvious keepers here.
I feel like I have to keep Kimbrel because of the severe shortage of closers in the draft.
I've narrowed my options for the final 2 hitters to Paul Konerko, Michael Morse, Brian McCann and Eric Hosmer. Konerko has been one of the steadiest performers in baseball over the last 5 years, but he's starting to get to an age where you expect him to start the declining years of his career. Hosmer is a young stud who could break out or he could have a sophomore slump and have his breakout a year or 2 down the road. Morse had a breakout season last year. Was it a fluke?
Choosing the last pitching keeper has the most players to choose from. Strasburg probably has the highest long term ceiling, but the Nats will probably limit his innings in 2012. Meanwhile, I've got Cain and Bumgarner as sentimental favorites with Pineda and Derek Holland also worthy of consideration. Do I take one of them over Strasburg? Do I take the risk of having to punt Saves and keep one of them over Kimbrel?
What 3 hitters and 3 pitchers would you keep if you were managing Savvy Vets?
C Brian McCann
1B Paul Konerko
2B Jemile Weeks
3B Chipper Jones
SS Alexei Ramirez
IF Michael Morse
OF Justin Upton
OF Omar Infante
OF Coco Crisp
UT David Ortiz
UT Eric Hosmer
SP CC Sabathia
SP Michael Pineda
SP Ervin Santana
SP Stephen Strasburg
SP Matt Cain
RP Craig Kimbrel
RP Mark Melancon
RP Brad Lidge
P Frank Francisco
P Bobby Parnell
BN Chris Young(OF)
BN Bartolo Colon
BN Madison Bumgarner
BN Derek Holland
BN Bud Norris
DL Jonathan Sanchez
Comments:
Closers are insanely overvalued in this league. Between the RP and P categories, it's possible to have 5 closers in your starting lineup. We have at least 3 managers who hoard closers. If you want to compete in the Saves category, you have to take reliable closers early and often. Many of them are keepers. I tried punting Saves one year and found that the numbers really work against you if you punt any one category.
Justin Upton and CC Sabathia are the 2 obvious keepers here.
I feel like I have to keep Kimbrel because of the severe shortage of closers in the draft.
I've narrowed my options for the final 2 hitters to Paul Konerko, Michael Morse, Brian McCann and Eric Hosmer. Konerko has been one of the steadiest performers in baseball over the last 5 years, but he's starting to get to an age where you expect him to start the declining years of his career. Hosmer is a young stud who could break out or he could have a sophomore slump and have his breakout a year or 2 down the road. Morse had a breakout season last year. Was it a fluke?
Choosing the last pitching keeper has the most players to choose from. Strasburg probably has the highest long term ceiling, but the Nats will probably limit his innings in 2012. Meanwhile, I've got Cain and Bumgarner as sentimental favorites with Pineda and Derek Holland also worthy of consideration. Do I take one of them over Strasburg? Do I take the risk of having to punt Saves and keep one of them over Kimbrel?
What 3 hitters and 3 pitchers would you keep if you were managing Savvy Vets?
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Fantasy Focus: Hanley Ramirez
There is an article up on Fake Teams entitled Now Is the Time to Buy on Hanley Ramirez. The thesis of the article is basically that Hanley's poor season was due to a low BABIP(Batting Average on Balls In Play) and his low BABIP was due to bad luck, therefore he is lkely to bounce back to his normal awesome self next season. Since his Average Draft Position has dropped considerably from his previous #1 or #2 overall, he is now undervalued and should be drafted aggressively.
This thesis is a classic example of how a superficial understanding of BABIP can lead to misleading and even inaccurate conclusions. First of all, Hanley Ramirez only had 385 Plate Appearances last season, so he obviously had more problems than just a low BABIP, but let's just assume that the injury was an isolated incident that he will be fully recovered from by the start of next season. Is it safe to assume that his low BABIP was due entirely to bad luck and the Baseball Gods will smile on him once again in 2012? Let's take a closer look at some statistics that are readily available which might shed some light on the subject:
Here are Hanley's BABIP's starting in 2006: .343, .353, .329, .379, .327, .275! Aha! Luck, you say! Here's a couple more to consider:
1. GB/FB ratios from 2006: 0.81, 0.67, 0.85, 0.64, 1.01!, 1.08!
2. Line Drive % from 2006: 19%, 21%, 19%, 22%, 20%, 16%!
First, the significant jump in GB% reduces opportunities for HR's and XBH's. This jump occured in 2010. Second, his LD% took a dive in 2011 taking away opportunity for both singles and XBH's. So, there is a reason besides luck for Hanley's poor BABIP afterall: HE DIDN'T HIT THE BALL AS HARD!
There may be reasons why he didn't hit the ball as hard:
1. The most obvious reason for him not hitting the ball as hard is injury. If you are injured, you may not be able to swing as hard, or elevate sinking pitches as well, or the swing may be altered in some other way.
2. Pitchers may have figured out something about him and are pitching him differently. This hypothesis could be studied through PitchFx, but would be laborious and time consuming.
3. Off field issues such as deconditioning of substance use. As far was I know, Hanley hasn't failed any drug tests. He has definitely had attitude issues that were evident on the field.
4. Development of a mechanical flaw in the swing.
Hanley Ramirez definitely may bounce back next season. He is obviously a great athlete who should be entering the prime of his career. If his injury is fully healed, if the new stadium and some new teammates improve his mood and attitude, if he readjusts to any adjustments opposing pitchers may have made, yeah, he's a great candidate for a bounceback season. Make no mistake, though. Hanley Ramirez' poor season in 2011 was most likely NOT due to bad luck, well, unless you consider injuries bad luck.
Attributing changes in BABIP to luck as the first option, stops the mind from asking further questions and digging for reasons behind the reasons. If a player experiences a significant change in BABIP over a full season, a search for underlying causes should be undertaken and the change in BABIP should be attributed to luck only if that search fails to turn up likely explanations.
This thesis is a classic example of how a superficial understanding of BABIP can lead to misleading and even inaccurate conclusions. First of all, Hanley Ramirez only had 385 Plate Appearances last season, so he obviously had more problems than just a low BABIP, but let's just assume that the injury was an isolated incident that he will be fully recovered from by the start of next season. Is it safe to assume that his low BABIP was due entirely to bad luck and the Baseball Gods will smile on him once again in 2012? Let's take a closer look at some statistics that are readily available which might shed some light on the subject:
Here are Hanley's BABIP's starting in 2006: .343, .353, .329, .379, .327, .275! Aha! Luck, you say! Here's a couple more to consider:
1. GB/FB ratios from 2006: 0.81, 0.67, 0.85, 0.64, 1.01!, 1.08!
2. Line Drive % from 2006: 19%, 21%, 19%, 22%, 20%, 16%!
First, the significant jump in GB% reduces opportunities for HR's and XBH's. This jump occured in 2010. Second, his LD% took a dive in 2011 taking away opportunity for both singles and XBH's. So, there is a reason besides luck for Hanley's poor BABIP afterall: HE DIDN'T HIT THE BALL AS HARD!
There may be reasons why he didn't hit the ball as hard:
1. The most obvious reason for him not hitting the ball as hard is injury. If you are injured, you may not be able to swing as hard, or elevate sinking pitches as well, or the swing may be altered in some other way.
2. Pitchers may have figured out something about him and are pitching him differently. This hypothesis could be studied through PitchFx, but would be laborious and time consuming.
3. Off field issues such as deconditioning of substance use. As far was I know, Hanley hasn't failed any drug tests. He has definitely had attitude issues that were evident on the field.
4. Development of a mechanical flaw in the swing.
Hanley Ramirez definitely may bounce back next season. He is obviously a great athlete who should be entering the prime of his career. If his injury is fully healed, if the new stadium and some new teammates improve his mood and attitude, if he readjusts to any adjustments opposing pitchers may have made, yeah, he's a great candidate for a bounceback season. Make no mistake, though. Hanley Ramirez' poor season in 2011 was most likely NOT due to bad luck, well, unless you consider injuries bad luck.
Attributing changes in BABIP to luck as the first option, stops the mind from asking further questions and digging for reasons behind the reasons. If a player experiences a significant change in BABIP over a full season, a search for underlying causes should be undertaken and the change in BABIP should be attributed to luck only if that search fails to turn up likely explanations.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Fantasy Focus: All Breakout Team
The Giants had a scheduled off day today. Jonathan Sanchez got in his regular work throwing 85 pitches in a minor league game. He got knocked around by the kids a bit, but said he was just trying to throw strikes and work on his changeup. Here's my All-Breakout team, which is not exactly the same thing as an All-Sleeper team:
C: Matt Wieters. Orioles. Wieters is back on after a disappointing sophomore campaign. I think he's going to break huge this year. Guy just has so much power and was so good in college and the minors.
1B: Billy Butler. Royals. Hit .318 last year with 15 HR's. Look for the power to take another step forward. Brandon Belt deserves mention here too. Gotta think it's almost a lock that he's up fairly early in the season if not on the opening day roster and all indications are he'll rake from day 1.
2B: Gordon Beckham, White Sox. Raked in the second half last year. Should pick up where he left off now that he's settled in at 2B. Honorable mention goes to Neil Walker of the Pirates.
3B: Chase Headley, Padres. Hate to say it, but I think Headley may be primed to be a more athletic version of Adrian Gonzalez, well, maybe not quite as much power, but double digit steals to make up for it. Honorable mention goes to Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates and Ian Stewart of the Rockies. Pablo Sandoval to have a re-breakout year!
SS: Reid Brignac, Rays. Once a highly touted prospect, he didn't develop quite as fast as anticipated, but hit a HR every 18 AB's last year after his callup. That, my friends, projects to 33 HR's over a full season...from the SS position! Honorable Mention: Alcides Escobar who I think will make the BrewCrew regret trading for Zack Grienke who seems injury prone and very full of himself for a guy coming off a down year.
OF: Jose Tabata, Pirates. If you are looking for 40+ steals with some power projection, look no further than Tabata.
OF: Brett Gardner, Yankees. Already a pretty good player, it sounds like Gardner is going to lead off for the Yankees. With a .380 OBP and Plus-plus speed, he could score 140 runs!
OF: Dexter Fowler, Rockies. Dang! I keep coming up with names from Giants division rivals here! Maybe it's just because I know the division better and am a bit paranoid? I know Fowler has his doubters, but I think he just might ultimately be a better player than Carlos Gonzalez.
OF Honorable Mention: Will Venable, Padres. There I go again, but Venable has enough power for Petco and a great deal of speed. Only question is whether he will hit for enough average.
SP: Jonathan Sanchez, Giants. He was good last year, but I think that's only the tip of the iceburg. He's always had elite stuff and now he's learning how to harness it.
SP: Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays. Another guy with elite stuff who's struggled to harness it. Ready to take the next step. Some analysts are calling his 17 K game from last year one of the most dominant of all time.
SP: Edwin Jackson, White Sox. Another guy with elite stuff who's had trouble controlling it.
SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals. Now more than a full year post-TJ. Another guy with elite stuff.
SP: Gio Gonzalez, A's. A lot like Jonathan Sanchez.
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves. A lot of people are predicting this one. I think he will ultimately beat out Venters for the Braves closing job. What did he have, something like 17 K/9 last year? Unreal!
RP: Daniel Bard, Red Sox. Could be the closer in Boston by June.
RP: Ryan Madson, Phillies. Was a beast in the NLCS. LIke Bard in Boston, he could be the closer in Philly by June.
RP Honorable Mention: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers. If Broxton blows up again, which I think he will, Jansen is my pick to emerge as the closer as Kuo can't pitch in back-to-back games.
Who do you think is going to break out this year?
C: Matt Wieters. Orioles. Wieters is back on after a disappointing sophomore campaign. I think he's going to break huge this year. Guy just has so much power and was so good in college and the minors.
1B: Billy Butler. Royals. Hit .318 last year with 15 HR's. Look for the power to take another step forward. Brandon Belt deserves mention here too. Gotta think it's almost a lock that he's up fairly early in the season if not on the opening day roster and all indications are he'll rake from day 1.
2B: Gordon Beckham, White Sox. Raked in the second half last year. Should pick up where he left off now that he's settled in at 2B. Honorable mention goes to Neil Walker of the Pirates.
3B: Chase Headley, Padres. Hate to say it, but I think Headley may be primed to be a more athletic version of Adrian Gonzalez, well, maybe not quite as much power, but double digit steals to make up for it. Honorable mention goes to Pedro Alvarez of the Pirates and Ian Stewart of the Rockies. Pablo Sandoval to have a re-breakout year!
SS: Reid Brignac, Rays. Once a highly touted prospect, he didn't develop quite as fast as anticipated, but hit a HR every 18 AB's last year after his callup. That, my friends, projects to 33 HR's over a full season...from the SS position! Honorable Mention: Alcides Escobar who I think will make the BrewCrew regret trading for Zack Grienke who seems injury prone and very full of himself for a guy coming off a down year.
OF: Jose Tabata, Pirates. If you are looking for 40+ steals with some power projection, look no further than Tabata.
OF: Brett Gardner, Yankees. Already a pretty good player, it sounds like Gardner is going to lead off for the Yankees. With a .380 OBP and Plus-plus speed, he could score 140 runs!
OF: Dexter Fowler, Rockies. Dang! I keep coming up with names from Giants division rivals here! Maybe it's just because I know the division better and am a bit paranoid? I know Fowler has his doubters, but I think he just might ultimately be a better player than Carlos Gonzalez.
OF Honorable Mention: Will Venable, Padres. There I go again, but Venable has enough power for Petco and a great deal of speed. Only question is whether he will hit for enough average.
SP: Jonathan Sanchez, Giants. He was good last year, but I think that's only the tip of the iceburg. He's always had elite stuff and now he's learning how to harness it.
SP: Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays. Another guy with elite stuff who's struggled to harness it. Ready to take the next step. Some analysts are calling his 17 K game from last year one of the most dominant of all time.
SP: Edwin Jackson, White Sox. Another guy with elite stuff who's had trouble controlling it.
SP: Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals. Now more than a full year post-TJ. Another guy with elite stuff.
SP: Gio Gonzalez, A's. A lot like Jonathan Sanchez.
RP: Craig Kimbrel, Braves. A lot of people are predicting this one. I think he will ultimately beat out Venters for the Braves closing job. What did he have, something like 17 K/9 last year? Unreal!
RP: Daniel Bard, Red Sox. Could be the closer in Boston by June.
RP: Ryan Madson, Phillies. Was a beast in the NLCS. LIke Bard in Boston, he could be the closer in Philly by June.
RP Honorable Mention: Kenley Jansen, Dodgers. If Broxton blows up again, which I think he will, Jansen is my pick to emerge as the closer as Kuo can't pitch in back-to-back games.
Who do you think is going to break out this year?
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Fantasy Focus: Ranking Andres Torres
As I'm starting to put together my draft board for the 2011 version my Savvy Vets fantasy baseball team, I've been looking at some mock draft and some early fantasy magazine player rankings. I try to not let my real life allegiances affect my judgement when it comes to my fantasy draft, but I can't help but notice where some of the Giants players are ranked on other draft boards. One really interesting name that keeps jumping out at me is Andres Torres. My Yahoo Sports fantasy mag has him ranked at #178 on their overall draft board and #55 among OF's.
Even if you look at Andres Torres' overall numbers from last season, he performed better than those rankings. Now, I understand that a big portion of his 6 WAR campaign was due to defense, which doesn't help you in fantasy baseball, but did you know that Andres was one of only 9 players in all of MLB with at least 15 HR's and 25 SB's last year? Here's something else to consider when looking at Andres' performance last year. He essentially missed the first and last months of the season! He started out the season on the bench and only got into 15 games in April. He also missed most of September with an appendectomy and was not feeling 100% in the games he did play. After a poor NLDS, the monster from May, June, July and August returned for the NLCS and WS. Monster, you say? In those 4 months, when Andres was fully healthy and in the starting lineup daily, he put up a line of .279/.363/.449 with 38 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, and 22 SB. Had he been starting from day 1 and healthy in September, he projected to some pretty stupendous numbers. How do 21 HR's and 33 SB's grab your fantasy? How about 111 runs and 85 RBI's? Just for comparison, Jayson Werth had 106 runs, 85 RBI's, 27 HR's, but only 13 SB in 2010. Yahoo Sports has Werth ranked #42 overall and the #14 OF.
Now, I understand that these rankings are not based on last year's performances, but on how fantasy baseball managers think a player is likely to perform in the upcoming year. Jayson Werth's 3 consecutive seasons of solid production count for more than a 1 year breakout for a player like Andres Torres. If you are looking for clues that maybe Torres' season was not a fluke though, I'll throw out 2 points to consider: 1. Torres' line as a reserve in 2009 was .270/.343/.533 with a projection of 24 HR and 24 SB over a full season of PA's. 2. His performance in the NLCS and WS, after fully recovering from his appendectomy was right in line with his performance over the middle 4 months of the regular season.
Now, don't get me wrong here. I'm not advocating for drafting Andres Torres ahead of Jayson Werth in your fantasy draft, but if you are looking for a guy who is likely to outperform his ADP in the later rounds of your draft, you could do a whole lot worse than Andres Torres.
Even if you look at Andres Torres' overall numbers from last season, he performed better than those rankings. Now, I understand that a big portion of his 6 WAR campaign was due to defense, which doesn't help you in fantasy baseball, but did you know that Andres was one of only 9 players in all of MLB with at least 15 HR's and 25 SB's last year? Here's something else to consider when looking at Andres' performance last year. He essentially missed the first and last months of the season! He started out the season on the bench and only got into 15 games in April. He also missed most of September with an appendectomy and was not feeling 100% in the games he did play. After a poor NLDS, the monster from May, June, July and August returned for the NLCS and WS. Monster, you say? In those 4 months, when Andres was fully healthy and in the starting lineup daily, he put up a line of .279/.363/.449 with 38 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, and 22 SB. Had he been starting from day 1 and healthy in September, he projected to some pretty stupendous numbers. How do 21 HR's and 33 SB's grab your fantasy? How about 111 runs and 85 RBI's? Just for comparison, Jayson Werth had 106 runs, 85 RBI's, 27 HR's, but only 13 SB in 2010. Yahoo Sports has Werth ranked #42 overall and the #14 OF.
Now, I understand that these rankings are not based on last year's performances, but on how fantasy baseball managers think a player is likely to perform in the upcoming year. Jayson Werth's 3 consecutive seasons of solid production count for more than a 1 year breakout for a player like Andres Torres. If you are looking for clues that maybe Torres' season was not a fluke though, I'll throw out 2 points to consider: 1. Torres' line as a reserve in 2009 was .270/.343/.533 with a projection of 24 HR and 24 SB over a full season of PA's. 2. His performance in the NLCS and WS, after fully recovering from his appendectomy was right in line with his performance over the middle 4 months of the regular season.
Now, don't get me wrong here. I'm not advocating for drafting Andres Torres ahead of Jayson Werth in your fantasy draft, but if you are looking for a guy who is likely to outperform his ADP in the later rounds of your draft, you could do a whole lot worse than Andres Torres.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Hot Stove Update: Jays Dump Vernon Wells' Contract; Manny Gets Chump Change
The Hot Stove had a flare up as the weekend approached, and what a flare up it was! In a surprising almost shocking move, the Blue Jays were able to rid themselves of a contract many considered to be one of the most untradable in baseball by sending Vernon Wells to the LA Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. News of the trade brought snorts, guffaws and outright derision of the Angels form all corners of the baseball blogosphere while Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulis was toasted as the latest greatest GM in the game. While I don't love the trade from the Angels viewpoint, I don't think it's nearly as bad as the pundits are making it out to be. Here's the breakdown:
From the Blue Jays perspective, the biggest factor in the trade, by far, is getting out from under Wells' contract in which he is owed $86 M over the next 4 years. Vernon Wells is not a terrible player, and he is coming off a pretty good season, but for a team like the Blue Jays who are trying to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees on a limited budget, it was imperative that they have more payroll flexibility going forward. It almost didn't matter who the Jays got in return, I'm sure they would have been happy to simply give the contract away for nothing. As it happened, the Angels had a couple of lesser contracts they wanted to dump so they sent Napoli and Rivera to the Jays. A lot of analysts are crowing about what a great value the Jays got in Napoli. I'm not so sure. Napoli and Rivera are both terrible fielders with no real positions. The Jays are already not a good defensive team and if Rivera and Napoli play in the field, they will be even worse. I don't expect either player to have a long term career with the Jays.
It's a little more complicated from the Angels perspective. The Angels were looking for an outfielder, mainly a left fielder, and had missed out on Carl Crawford. I think it's pretty clear now that the Angels problems with signing Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre were not so much the $$$$/season, but the number of years. The Angels also had a logjam of DH types and really had no use for either Napoli or Rivera.
A lot of fans think Napoli should have won the every day catcher job over a year ago, but Mike Scioscia obviously did not like Napoli's work behind the plate, possibly with good reason. Napoli's Catcher ERA(the ERA of Angels pitchers in games he caught) was consistently >5.00 for several years running while it was <4 for Jeff Mathis and Bobby Wilson. Catcher ERA is a notoriously controversial statistic fraught with all kinds of built in biases, but Napoli had amassed enough of a track record so there was probably something significant here, and more than a run difference in ERA is huge. Rumor has it that Napoli had trouble remembering pitch sequences in pitcher/catcher meetings much to the dismay of the coaching staff. In short, Napoli was not going to catch a lot of games for the Angels. They have Kendry Morales coming back at 1B and Bobby Abreu set to be the DH, so the Angels were going to have to pay Napoli $6 M to do a lot of sitting on the bench. Rivera's situation was even worse as he was coming off a down year and has always been a minus fielder. By sending Rivera and Napoli to the Jays, the Angels get back about $11 M of Wells' $23 M salary and they have another $45 M coming off the books next year.
Assuming he is healthy, a big assumption I know, Wells gives that Angels a pretty good leftfielder who can hit for power. It enables them to field a much better defensive team with possibly a more productive lineup. The worst part of getting Wells is the contract, but the Angels are a team that is not afraid to spend a lot of money. Well's contract won't be the albatross for them that it was for the Blue Jays.
I don't know what other options might have been open to the Angels. It's not a trade that makes them an automatic favorite to win the AL West, but it may well have been their best option if they wanted to remain competitive in the short term. I don't think it's as bad a trade for the Angels as it's being portrayed on many other sites.
Manny Ramirez signed a bottom-of-the-barrel 1 year/$2 M contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. Oh how the mighty, or Manny, have fallen! Dude is coming off a 2 year/$45 M contract with the Dodgers and White Sox. The Rays also got another Scott Boras client in a package deal. Johnny Damon signed for about $4 M, a larger amount than what Manny got. The difference likely being that Damon can still play a shaky LF while Manny can't play any position at all. DH's just don't get big contracts these days! If Manny still brings a bat, and if he can stay healthy not having to play in the field, this move could pay off big time for the Rays. The losers in all this may be Desmond Jennings who was penciled into LF for the Rays, and all the fantasy baseball dynasty league owners who have him on their rosters.
From the Blue Jays perspective, the biggest factor in the trade, by far, is getting out from under Wells' contract in which he is owed $86 M over the next 4 years. Vernon Wells is not a terrible player, and he is coming off a pretty good season, but for a team like the Blue Jays who are trying to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees on a limited budget, it was imperative that they have more payroll flexibility going forward. It almost didn't matter who the Jays got in return, I'm sure they would have been happy to simply give the contract away for nothing. As it happened, the Angels had a couple of lesser contracts they wanted to dump so they sent Napoli and Rivera to the Jays. A lot of analysts are crowing about what a great value the Jays got in Napoli. I'm not so sure. Napoli and Rivera are both terrible fielders with no real positions. The Jays are already not a good defensive team and if Rivera and Napoli play in the field, they will be even worse. I don't expect either player to have a long term career with the Jays.
It's a little more complicated from the Angels perspective. The Angels were looking for an outfielder, mainly a left fielder, and had missed out on Carl Crawford. I think it's pretty clear now that the Angels problems with signing Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre were not so much the $$$$/season, but the number of years. The Angels also had a logjam of DH types and really had no use for either Napoli or Rivera.
A lot of fans think Napoli should have won the every day catcher job over a year ago, but Mike Scioscia obviously did not like Napoli's work behind the plate, possibly with good reason. Napoli's Catcher ERA(the ERA of Angels pitchers in games he caught) was consistently >5.00 for several years running while it was <4 for Jeff Mathis and Bobby Wilson. Catcher ERA is a notoriously controversial statistic fraught with all kinds of built in biases, but Napoli had amassed enough of a track record so there was probably something significant here, and more than a run difference in ERA is huge. Rumor has it that Napoli had trouble remembering pitch sequences in pitcher/catcher meetings much to the dismay of the coaching staff. In short, Napoli was not going to catch a lot of games for the Angels. They have Kendry Morales coming back at 1B and Bobby Abreu set to be the DH, so the Angels were going to have to pay Napoli $6 M to do a lot of sitting on the bench. Rivera's situation was even worse as he was coming off a down year and has always been a minus fielder. By sending Rivera and Napoli to the Jays, the Angels get back about $11 M of Wells' $23 M salary and they have another $45 M coming off the books next year.
Assuming he is healthy, a big assumption I know, Wells gives that Angels a pretty good leftfielder who can hit for power. It enables them to field a much better defensive team with possibly a more productive lineup. The worst part of getting Wells is the contract, but the Angels are a team that is not afraid to spend a lot of money. Well's contract won't be the albatross for them that it was for the Blue Jays.
I don't know what other options might have been open to the Angels. It's not a trade that makes them an automatic favorite to win the AL West, but it may well have been their best option if they wanted to remain competitive in the short term. I don't think it's as bad a trade for the Angels as it's being portrayed on many other sites.
Manny Ramirez signed a bottom-of-the-barrel 1 year/$2 M contract with the Tampa Bay Rays. Oh how the mighty, or Manny, have fallen! Dude is coming off a 2 year/$45 M contract with the Dodgers and White Sox. The Rays also got another Scott Boras client in a package deal. Johnny Damon signed for about $4 M, a larger amount than what Manny got. The difference likely being that Damon can still play a shaky LF while Manny can't play any position at all. DH's just don't get big contracts these days! If Manny still brings a bat, and if he can stay healthy not having to play in the field, this move could pay off big time for the Rays. The losers in all this may be Desmond Jennings who was penciled into LF for the Rays, and all the fantasy baseball dynasty league owners who have him on their rosters.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Fantasy Impact: Sleeper Alert- Jaime Garcia
The Cardinals named Jaime Garcia as their #5 starter yesterday, then he went out and had another quality start against the Twins in a spring training game: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.
I had never heard of Jaime Garcia before this spring and I'm guessing a lot of other fantasy baseball players are in the same boat. Garcia is 23 years old, 6'2", 200 lbs LHP drafted by the Cardinals in round #22 in 2005. He worked his way up through the system, but missed most of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back late in the year with the AAA Memphis Redbirds to post a 2-0, 3.86, 21 IP, 9 BB, 22 K's record. He then went on to star in the PCL playoffs. He's always posted strong K rates when healthy. BA's Prospect Handbook ranks him as the Cards' #2 prospect for this year. He throws a low-90's sinking fastball, but his best pitch is a hammer curveball. He's added a hybrid cutter/slider to his repertoire.
He's had a strong spring: 0-0, 1.93, 18.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K's, GO/AO= 2.64. As a starter for a very good hitting team, the Cardinals, Garcia is definitely draftable in deeper leagues and should be watched closely in shallower ones. Don't be shocked if he puts up some very big numbers. Remaining healthy might be the biggest concern.
I had never heard of Jaime Garcia before this spring and I'm guessing a lot of other fantasy baseball players are in the same boat. Garcia is 23 years old, 6'2", 200 lbs LHP drafted by the Cardinals in round #22 in 2005. He worked his way up through the system, but missed most of 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He came back late in the year with the AAA Memphis Redbirds to post a 2-0, 3.86, 21 IP, 9 BB, 22 K's record. He then went on to star in the PCL playoffs. He's always posted strong K rates when healthy. BA's Prospect Handbook ranks him as the Cards' #2 prospect for this year. He throws a low-90's sinking fastball, but his best pitch is a hammer curveball. He's added a hybrid cutter/slider to his repertoire.
He's had a strong spring: 0-0, 1.93, 18.2 IP, 5 BB, 16 K's, GO/AO= 2.64. As a starter for a very good hitting team, the Cardinals, Garcia is definitely draftable in deeper leagues and should be watched closely in shallower ones. Don't be shocked if he puts up some very big numbers. Remaining healthy might be the biggest concern.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Fantasy Impact: Sleeper Alert- Adam Moore
I will differentiate Sleepers from Breakout Players by defining a breakout player as someone you expect to be good at some point in their career and you are just trying to time when they make the jump from the usual adjustment period to the MLB to that of a full fledged star. Sleepers, on the other hand, are players nobody expects much of but go ahead and blossom into good players if not stars. Garrett Jones would be an example of a sleeper last year, probably Ben Zobrist too, Jason Bartlett too.
Sleepers, by there very definition are difficult, if not impossible, to predict, because of people seriously think they might be good, then they aren't really sleepers, right? So we'll refine our definition a bit and say that a Sleeper is a player who nobody, or very few people thought had a chance to be good before this season.
Our first Sleeper Alert will be for Adam Moore, C, Seattle Mariners. With Kenji Johjima and Jeff Clement gone, an opportunity was created in Seattle that doesn't come along all that often for a young prospect who hasn't gotten a lot of attention. That's the "perfect storm" that may have lifted Adam Moore's career off the ground. Moore got a look last season and has gotten the bulk of PT this spring. He looks like the odd on favorite to win the starting catcher job with Seattle this season.
First the basics: BD- 05-08-1984. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs.
What makes Moore a nice fantasy sleeper choice is that he's always been a good hitting catcher. Part of the reason why he is not well known is he basically only had one college season of record after starting out in JC ball and then tranferring from Nebraska to UT Arlington, a good program to be sure. His line from UT Arlington was a fine .350/.445/.563 with 10 HR's and 22 doubles in 254 AB's. The Mariners drafted him in the 6'th round in 2006 and played at two levels that first summer of his pro career: Short Season: .317/.348/.460 with 9 doubles in 63 AB. Low A; .267/.342/.430 with 7 HR's in 165 AB's, a pretty good line for the Midwest League, a fairly extreme pitcher's league.
2007 was a strong season in high A ball: .307/.371/.543 with 22 HR's. High Desert in the California League is very friendly to hitters so these numbers could be discounted. He continued to hit well the following season in AA in the fairly neutral Southern League: .319/.396/.506 with 14 HR's and 34 doubles.
2009 was not as impressive: AA: .263/.371/.411 with 3 HR's in 95 AB's. AAA: .294/.346/.429 with 9 HR's and 19 doubles in 340 AB's. He appeared in 6 games for Seattle hitting just .217/.250/.391, but the Seattle brass was impressed enough with him to not go after a starting catcher in free agency this offseason. Moore appears to be in line for the starting catcher job and has gotten the bulk of spring training AB's in preparation: .344/.447/.438.
I generally don't recommend drafting sleepers unless you are in a deep league, or a league that only uses players from the NL or AL. I do recommend putting them on your watch list so if one of your drafted players get injured or is having a terrible year, you are ready to pounce before other owners in your league.
What do you think about Adam Moore?
Sleepers, by there very definition are difficult, if not impossible, to predict, because of people seriously think they might be good, then they aren't really sleepers, right? So we'll refine our definition a bit and say that a Sleeper is a player who nobody, or very few people thought had a chance to be good before this season.
Our first Sleeper Alert will be for Adam Moore, C, Seattle Mariners. With Kenji Johjima and Jeff Clement gone, an opportunity was created in Seattle that doesn't come along all that often for a young prospect who hasn't gotten a lot of attention. That's the "perfect storm" that may have lifted Adam Moore's career off the ground. Moore got a look last season and has gotten the bulk of PT this spring. He looks like the odd on favorite to win the starting catcher job with Seattle this season.
First the basics: BD- 05-08-1984. B-R, T-R. 6'3", 210 lbs.
What makes Moore a nice fantasy sleeper choice is that he's always been a good hitting catcher. Part of the reason why he is not well known is he basically only had one college season of record after starting out in JC ball and then tranferring from Nebraska to UT Arlington, a good program to be sure. His line from UT Arlington was a fine .350/.445/.563 with 10 HR's and 22 doubles in 254 AB's. The Mariners drafted him in the 6'th round in 2006 and played at two levels that first summer of his pro career: Short Season: .317/.348/.460 with 9 doubles in 63 AB. Low A; .267/.342/.430 with 7 HR's in 165 AB's, a pretty good line for the Midwest League, a fairly extreme pitcher's league.
2007 was a strong season in high A ball: .307/.371/.543 with 22 HR's. High Desert in the California League is very friendly to hitters so these numbers could be discounted. He continued to hit well the following season in AA in the fairly neutral Southern League: .319/.396/.506 with 14 HR's and 34 doubles.
2009 was not as impressive: AA: .263/.371/.411 with 3 HR's in 95 AB's. AAA: .294/.346/.429 with 9 HR's and 19 doubles in 340 AB's. He appeared in 6 games for Seattle hitting just .217/.250/.391, but the Seattle brass was impressed enough with him to not go after a starting catcher in free agency this offseason. Moore appears to be in line for the starting catcher job and has gotten the bulk of spring training AB's in preparation: .344/.447/.438.
I generally don't recommend drafting sleepers unless you are in a deep league, or a league that only uses players from the NL or AL. I do recommend putting them on your watch list so if one of your drafted players get injured or is having a terrible year, you are ready to pounce before other owners in your league.
What do you think about Adam Moore?
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Fantasy Impact: All Breakout Team
The Holy Grail in fantasy baseball is to land that breakout player. A player who other owners ignore and you draft late, or pick up on the free agent market, and he busts out to unexpecedly(to everyone but you) carry your team to the championship. So, who is this year's Ben Zobrist or Zack Grienke? I probably don't know any more than you do. It's always fun to try to predict who might have that big breakout season and make you look like a genius though. One disclaimer: You never want to build your team around hopes for a breakout season. It's always fun to prognosticate, but you are much more likely to get results from players who have established track records of productivity in the major leagues. Still, you also want to try to grab 2 or 3 breakout candidates late in the draft rather than settle for the mediocre proven production that may be still available. Here's my All-Breakout team for 2010. Criteria is that they are no longer Rookie of the Year eligible.:
Catcher: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles- This one is a no-brainer. He's on pretty much everybody else's list too, so he's very unlikely to be a bargain on draft day. My only caveat is that I think his breakout will be so huge, it may be worthwhile to grab him right behind the elite hitters even if you already have Joe Mauer on your team. Wieters will probably out-perform a lot of utility players so you aren't hurting yourself by carrying two catchers. In the process, you deny another team the luxury of having a breakout, elite hitting catcher to compete with you.
First Base: Daric Barton, Oakland A's- First base was tough as there are very few first basemen who aren't already established hitters in MLB. Barton was supposed to be the centerpiece of the Mark Mulder trade to St Louis, it seems like forever ago as he has never been able to stick at the MLB level. He's going to get another chance this year as Chris Carter is probably not quite ready. Barton is having a strong spring and should win the starting job. He won't hit for the kind of power you want from a first baseman, but he'll hit for a high average with a great OBP and doubles power.
Also consider Chris Davis, Texas Rangers.
Second Base: Howie Kendrick, LA Angels- Kendrick's MLB career has been a disappointment so far. He had one false start with a demotion to the minors and several nagging injuries, but he ended up hitting .291/.334/.444 with 10 HR's and 11 SB's in 374 AB's. A full healthy season with an upward career trajectory could easily lead to a batting championship, with HR's and SB's in the high teens.
Third Base: Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies- IStew was the darling of prospect watchers for years. He has shown prodigious power at the MLB level already, but is challenged t make contact and has been blocked at his normal position by Garrett Atkins so has been moved around a lot. With Atkins gone, he'll have a clear shot at the starting 3B gig in Colorado. With just a bit higher BA, he could easily put up 30-40 HR's.
Also consider Gordon Beckham, White Sox.
Shortstop: Stephen Drew, Arizona D'Backs- Drew was my pick for breakout shortstop last year, which should tell you something right there, but I'm not sure what. Drew has the talent and seemed poised for a breakout last year after a nice second half in 2008. Alas, he was plagued by nagging injuries and regressed. These kinds of players can keep on regressing and Drew appears to be possibly following the same path of a career full of nagging injuries, but they can also bust out bigger than anyone once they finally have a healthy season. Drew may be in a "perfect storm" situation where his normal development curve converges with a healthy season and enables him to play up to his prodigious potential.
Also consider Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves.
Outfield: BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays- Pretty much every thing I said about Stephen Drew could also be said about Bossman Jr. He stole 42 bases last year and we know he has the power potential. He is now a full year removed from shoulder surgery. Here's a player who might slip fairly far on draft day because he's disappointed so many times, but that could make him the bargain of the year.
Outfield: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds- One rule of thumb in looking for breakout candidates is to look for players who were highly rated as prospects, but got off to slow starts in MLB. Some players just need to adjust, others may simply fall victim to small sample sizes early in their career. Bruce showed the power last year, was hampered by an injury and struggled to make consistent contact. Again, all it takes is health and a slightly better BA and he's putting up 30-40 HR seasons.
Outfield: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals- At one point was a consensus top 5 prospect. Struggled a bit while the Cards promoted him aggressively. Put up good enough numbers last year that he's a good bet to show his full potential this year.
Starting Pitcher: Brett Anderson, Oakland A's- As good as he was last year, his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit unlucky. Combine that with his natural career trajectory, and you could easily have a Zack Grienke-like season. This is widely predicted enough that he may not be a bargain on draft day though.
Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants- Another breakout that is being fairly widely predicted. Sanchez has the raw stuff to hang with anybody. Fastball in the mid-high 90's and emerging secondary stuff. He was terrific for the Giants last year after the no-hitter and has always had great K-rates. Just his natural career trajectory could easily take him to the next level this year.
Starting Pitcher: Phil Hughes, New York Yankees- Once one of the most highly rated pitching prospects in baseball, Hughes has struggled after an impressive start to his MLB career. He pitched very well out of the bullpen last year and could break big if he wins the #5 starting pitcher slot for the Yanks, as if the Yankees need another dominant starting pitcher!
Starting Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers- Another highly rated prospect who lost 2008 to an injury and was disappointing in 2009. Look for him to put it all together this year. Bonus is he's a great hitter for a pitcher too!
Starting Pitcher: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds- Another highly rated pitching prospect who has been a huge disappointment in multiple MLB opportunities. Finally started to put it together last last season going 3-1, 2.41, 37.1 IP, 16 BB, 35 K's. in September and October. Probably the riskiest pick of the 5 pitching breakout candidates, but if he has finally figured it all out, he could become a dominant starter as soon as this season.
Relief Pitcher: Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs- Many observers believed Marmol should have been the closer from the beginning of last season for the Cubs. He actually struggled a bit in the setup role after a dominating 2008, but Kevin Gregg struggled even more as the closer and Lou Piniella made the change late in the season. Look for Marmol to become one of the elite closers this year with the position settled.
Catcher: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles- This one is a no-brainer. He's on pretty much everybody else's list too, so he's very unlikely to be a bargain on draft day. My only caveat is that I think his breakout will be so huge, it may be worthwhile to grab him right behind the elite hitters even if you already have Joe Mauer on your team. Wieters will probably out-perform a lot of utility players so you aren't hurting yourself by carrying two catchers. In the process, you deny another team the luxury of having a breakout, elite hitting catcher to compete with you.
First Base: Daric Barton, Oakland A's- First base was tough as there are very few first basemen who aren't already established hitters in MLB. Barton was supposed to be the centerpiece of the Mark Mulder trade to St Louis, it seems like forever ago as he has never been able to stick at the MLB level. He's going to get another chance this year as Chris Carter is probably not quite ready. Barton is having a strong spring and should win the starting job. He won't hit for the kind of power you want from a first baseman, but he'll hit for a high average with a great OBP and doubles power.
Also consider Chris Davis, Texas Rangers.
Second Base: Howie Kendrick, LA Angels- Kendrick's MLB career has been a disappointment so far. He had one false start with a demotion to the minors and several nagging injuries, but he ended up hitting .291/.334/.444 with 10 HR's and 11 SB's in 374 AB's. A full healthy season with an upward career trajectory could easily lead to a batting championship, with HR's and SB's in the high teens.
Third Base: Ian Stewart, Colorado Rockies- IStew was the darling of prospect watchers for years. He has shown prodigious power at the MLB level already, but is challenged t make contact and has been blocked at his normal position by Garrett Atkins so has been moved around a lot. With Atkins gone, he'll have a clear shot at the starting 3B gig in Colorado. With just a bit higher BA, he could easily put up 30-40 HR's.
Also consider Gordon Beckham, White Sox.
Shortstop: Stephen Drew, Arizona D'Backs- Drew was my pick for breakout shortstop last year, which should tell you something right there, but I'm not sure what. Drew has the talent and seemed poised for a breakout last year after a nice second half in 2008. Alas, he was plagued by nagging injuries and regressed. These kinds of players can keep on regressing and Drew appears to be possibly following the same path of a career full of nagging injuries, but they can also bust out bigger than anyone once they finally have a healthy season. Drew may be in a "perfect storm" situation where his normal development curve converges with a healthy season and enables him to play up to his prodigious potential.
Also consider Yunel Escobar, Atlanta Braves.
Outfield: BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Rays- Pretty much every thing I said about Stephen Drew could also be said about Bossman Jr. He stole 42 bases last year and we know he has the power potential. He is now a full year removed from shoulder surgery. Here's a player who might slip fairly far on draft day because he's disappointed so many times, but that could make him the bargain of the year.
Outfield: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds- One rule of thumb in looking for breakout candidates is to look for players who were highly rated as prospects, but got off to slow starts in MLB. Some players just need to adjust, others may simply fall victim to small sample sizes early in their career. Bruce showed the power last year, was hampered by an injury and struggled to make consistent contact. Again, all it takes is health and a slightly better BA and he's putting up 30-40 HR seasons.
Outfield: Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals- At one point was a consensus top 5 prospect. Struggled a bit while the Cards promoted him aggressively. Put up good enough numbers last year that he's a good bet to show his full potential this year.
Starting Pitcher: Brett Anderson, Oakland A's- As good as he was last year, his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit unlucky. Combine that with his natural career trajectory, and you could easily have a Zack Grienke-like season. This is widely predicted enough that he may not be a bargain on draft day though.
Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco Giants- Another breakout that is being fairly widely predicted. Sanchez has the raw stuff to hang with anybody. Fastball in the mid-high 90's and emerging secondary stuff. He was terrific for the Giants last year after the no-hitter and has always had great K-rates. Just his natural career trajectory could easily take him to the next level this year.
Starting Pitcher: Phil Hughes, New York Yankees- Once one of the most highly rated pitching prospects in baseball, Hughes has struggled after an impressive start to his MLB career. He pitched very well out of the bullpen last year and could break big if he wins the #5 starting pitcher slot for the Yanks, as if the Yankees need another dominant starting pitcher!
Starting Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers- Another highly rated prospect who lost 2008 to an injury and was disappointing in 2009. Look for him to put it all together this year. Bonus is he's a great hitter for a pitcher too!
Starting Pitcher: Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds- Another highly rated pitching prospect who has been a huge disappointment in multiple MLB opportunities. Finally started to put it together last last season going 3-1, 2.41, 37.1 IP, 16 BB, 35 K's. in September and October. Probably the riskiest pick of the 5 pitching breakout candidates, but if he has finally figured it all out, he could become a dominant starter as soon as this season.
Relief Pitcher: Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs- Many observers believed Marmol should have been the closer from the beginning of last season for the Cubs. He actually struggled a bit in the setup role after a dominating 2008, but Kevin Gregg struggled even more as the closer and Lou Piniella made the change late in the season. Look for Marmol to become one of the elite closers this year with the position settled.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Hot Stove Update: Fernando Rodney Signs With Angels
The LA Angels announced the signing of righthanded RP Fernando Rodney to a 2 year contract for a total of $11 M. What makes this signing somewhat curious is the fact that Rodney saved 37 of 38 games for Detroit last year, and the Angels already have a closer, Brian Fuentes, who had the most Saves in baseball last year, 48. Fuentes is signed to a multiyear contract which pays him $9 M in 2010 with a vesting option for another $9 M in 2011.
While Rodney and Fuentes both saved a lot of games last year, neither was what you would exactly call a "shut down" closer. Fuentes blew 7 saves, and Rodney's secondary stats were just not very good:
Fuentes: 1-5, 3.93, 48 Saves, 55 Save Opps, 55 IP, 24 BB, 46 K's. His splits were dominant against lefthanded hitters, but not good at all against righthanded hitters with an OBPa of >.350 and a SLG % against of >.450.
Rodney: 2-5, 4.40, 37 Saves, 38 Save Opps, 75.2 IP, 41 BB, 61 K's. Note the relatively high ERA and the downright terrible walk rate!
It would appear that the Angels are paying closer prices for not just one, but two closers! Possibilities:
1. The Angels just found out that Jose Arredondo will be out for the season. With a lot of closers looking for work this offseason, they grabbed the opportunity to put a closer talent into the setup role.
2. The Angels don't trust Fuentes and wanted to have a pitcher with closing experience as a backup.
3. The Angels looked at Fuentes numbers against righthanded batters and are planning to run a closer platoon, if you will, with Rodney closing against some teams with righthanded heavy lineups. Variations on this theme could have Rodney pitching the 8'th and then extending into the 9'th for a tough RH batter to two, or vice versa.
4. Maybe the Angels are eyeing Fuentes' vesting option and thinking of using Rodney to keep Fuentes from reaching the threshold?
It all may work out marvelously for the Angels, but it also has the makings of a disaster. Fuentes is a risk to go Brad Lidge on the Angels at any time. Rodney's secondary stats don't support sustainability as a setup man, let alone a closer!
Fantasy Impact: Big. No matter how bad a closer's secondary stats are, the overwhelmingly important stat from a fantasy standpoint is Saves. The most important factor in maintaining saves for most closers is the lack of competition for the position. Last year, Brad Lidge was about as bad as a closer can get, but Charlie Manuel stuck with him and he kept on getting Saves, and kept right on having fantasy value. My fantasy team advanced in the playoffs because Brad Lidge got a couple of Saves that won the Saves category for me that week! Nobody wants to draft a closer only to have him replaced midseason and you weren't quick enough to drop your closer and grab the replacement off the FA list. The Chicago Cubs with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol are a classic example. Up until yesterday, Brian Fuentes was looking like a sure bet for at least 35-40 saves, probably more with the way Mike Scioscia manages. Now, who knows? Fantasy options now include: 1. Stay away from the situation completely. 2. Draft Fuentes and keep your fingers crossed. 3. Try to draft both Fuentes and Rodney. The only saving factor in this situation is that Mike Scioscia tends to be a stickler for defined roles, so if he names a closer early, he will likely stick with it.
While Rodney and Fuentes both saved a lot of games last year, neither was what you would exactly call a "shut down" closer. Fuentes blew 7 saves, and Rodney's secondary stats were just not very good:
Fuentes: 1-5, 3.93, 48 Saves, 55 Save Opps, 55 IP, 24 BB, 46 K's. His splits were dominant against lefthanded hitters, but not good at all against righthanded hitters with an OBPa of >.350 and a SLG % against of >.450.
Rodney: 2-5, 4.40, 37 Saves, 38 Save Opps, 75.2 IP, 41 BB, 61 K's. Note the relatively high ERA and the downright terrible walk rate!
It would appear that the Angels are paying closer prices for not just one, but two closers! Possibilities:
1. The Angels just found out that Jose Arredondo will be out for the season. With a lot of closers looking for work this offseason, they grabbed the opportunity to put a closer talent into the setup role.
2. The Angels don't trust Fuentes and wanted to have a pitcher with closing experience as a backup.
3. The Angels looked at Fuentes numbers against righthanded batters and are planning to run a closer platoon, if you will, with Rodney closing against some teams with righthanded heavy lineups. Variations on this theme could have Rodney pitching the 8'th and then extending into the 9'th for a tough RH batter to two, or vice versa.
4. Maybe the Angels are eyeing Fuentes' vesting option and thinking of using Rodney to keep Fuentes from reaching the threshold?
It all may work out marvelously for the Angels, but it also has the makings of a disaster. Fuentes is a risk to go Brad Lidge on the Angels at any time. Rodney's secondary stats don't support sustainability as a setup man, let alone a closer!
Fantasy Impact: Big. No matter how bad a closer's secondary stats are, the overwhelmingly important stat from a fantasy standpoint is Saves. The most important factor in maintaining saves for most closers is the lack of competition for the position. Last year, Brad Lidge was about as bad as a closer can get, but Charlie Manuel stuck with him and he kept on getting Saves, and kept right on having fantasy value. My fantasy team advanced in the playoffs because Brad Lidge got a couple of Saves that won the Saves category for me that week! Nobody wants to draft a closer only to have him replaced midseason and you weren't quick enough to drop your closer and grab the replacement off the FA list. The Chicago Cubs with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol are a classic example. Up until yesterday, Brian Fuentes was looking like a sure bet for at least 35-40 saves, probably more with the way Mike Scioscia manages. Now, who knows? Fantasy options now include: 1. Stay away from the situation completely. 2. Draft Fuentes and keep your fingers crossed. 3. Try to draft both Fuentes and Rodney. The only saving factor in this situation is that Mike Scioscia tends to be a stickler for defined roles, so if he names a closer early, he will likely stick with it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
