We have looked at the starting pitchers who are ranked as top 50 free agents as well as a few others ranked in MLBTR's Honorable Mention list, aka bargain bin. Let's look at some of MLBTR's SP trade candidates. The advantage of acquiring a veteran pitcher via trade is they are already under contract, usually for a shorter number of years which allows the acquiring team to avoid the risk of a 5-7 year contract. In reviewing this list it's important to remember that most of these pitchers probably won't be traded. We also don't know what their current teams may be asking for on return or what Buster Posey and the Giants may be willing to give up in trades. We limit our speculation to each pitcher's record, contract status(with MLBTR projected contracts for arbitration-eligible players) and reasons why they may be available.
Mackenzie Gore LHP, Nationals. DOB: 2/24/1999. 6' 2", 193 lbs. $4.7 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027. 5-15, 4.17, 159.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.
Long considered an elite pitching prospect. Tremendous first half of 2025 but had a brutal stretch in July. Missed some time due to minor injuries. Starting to get more expensive in arbitration, Nationals are rebuilding, he's likely to go to free agency and would bring back a haul of prospects. Has pitched more like a #3 SP than ace but young enough to put his elite stuff together and break out. Likely price would be multiple prospects including two top 100's.
Joe Ryan RHP, Twins. DOB: 6/5/1996. 6' 2", 205 lbs. $5.8 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027. 13-10, 3.42, 171 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.
Less stuff and upside than Gore but with better present command. Twins have not signaled a full rebuild but consensus is they will listen to offers on Ryan and Pablo Lopez RHP. The Twins would obviously be looking for at least one top 100 prospect in return.
Mitch Keller RHP, Pirates. DOB: 5/4/1996. 6' 3", 212 lbs. Under Contract: $54.5 M through 2028($18.17 M AAV). 6-15, 4.19, 176.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.
Keller is a innings-eater #3-4 SP type who would be mainly a salary dump by the Pirates and thus would not cost a top prospect. The Giants could use a trade for him to clear out some of their OF logjam and/or get the Pirates to eat a small percentage of Keller's contract.
Sonny Gray RHP, Cardinals. DOB: 11/7/1989. 5' 10", 190 lbs. 14-8, 180.2 IP, 10 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 25 HR. Under Contract: 1 yr/$$35 M plus a $5 M buyout on a $30 M option for 2027. Player opt out on the option if it is exercised.
Giants reportedly had interest in Sonny Gray at the trade deadline. Was that a Bob Melvin connection? The one year salary commitment is insane and would eat up most of the Giants Pre-CBT money by itself. A deal would likely require the Cardinals to pay off part of the salary and/or take a bad contract in return. Giants don't really have any contracts they are looking to dump right now. Gray is 36 years old. His K/BB still looks great but his HR rate ballooned over the last 2 seasons limiting his effectiveness. Could adding Brendan Donovan to the trade package make Gray's salary more palatable for the Giants?
Pablo Lopez RHP, Twins. DOB: 3/7/1996. 6' 4", 225 lbs. 5-4, 2.74, 75.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9. Under Contract: $43.5 M through 2027($21.75 M AAV).
Great numbers but two stints on the IL. Salary is below market value if fully healthy. Would probably require a top prospect in return.
Freddy Peralta RHP, Brewers. DOB: 6/4/1996. 6' 0", 198 lbs. $ 8 M club option for 2026, free agent Nov 2026. 17-6, 2.70, 176.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9.
Elite SP at a bargain salary but for just one season. Would take a substantial package in return as BrewCrew not obligated to trade him.
Sandy Alcantara RHP, Marlins. DOB: 9/7/1995. 6' 5", 200 lbs. Under Contract: $17 M through 2026 plus a $2 M buyout on a $21 M team option for 2027).
Rough comeback year from Tommy John surgery but posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 8 starts. Marlins might want to try to further rebuild his value and aim for a midseason trade. Depends on how badly they want to cut payroll for 2026.
Brady Singer RHP, Reds. DOB: 8/4/1996. 6' 5", 215 lbs. Arbitration- $11.9 M. Free Agent Nov 2026. 14-12, 4.03, 169.2 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9.
Affordable innings eater who might not require a huge return. Reds have a relative pitching surplus and are looking to add a hitter or two. Depending on how the Giants view Heliot Ramos going forward, I could see a 1 for 1 trade for him or the Reds might want to just dump the salary commitment and re-allocate the $$.
Kyle Freeland LHP, Rockies. DOB: 5/14/1993. 6' 4", 204 lbs. 5-17, 4.98, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Under Contract: $16 M through 2026, $17 M vesting player option at 170 IP for 2027.
Affordable innings eater whose numbers are significantly better outside Coors Field. A trade would probably benefit both Freeland and the Rockies. Mainly a salary dump so would not require a top prospect in return. Prickly personality was on display in a benches-clearing incident with the Giants in 2025. If I'm Buster Posey I'm kicking the tires on Freeland.
Luis Severino RHP, A's. DOB: 2/20/1994. 6' 2", 2018 lbs. 8-11, 4.54, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. Under Contract: $42 M through 2027($21 M AAV). Can opt out after 2026.
Coming of a down season after signing a big contract. Hated the Sacramento ballpark and had much better numbers on the road. Buster might want to kick the tires on Sevy too.
Luis Castillo RHP, Mariners. DOB: 12/12/1992. 6' 2", 200 lbs. 11-8, 3.54, 180.2 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. Under Contract: $45.5 M through 2027($22.75 AAV), $25 M vesting option for 2028.
Mariners have a plethora of pitchers and might want to shed salary. The salary might be a bit rich for the Giants taste but Greg Johnson indicated they may be willing to pay more AAV for a shorter obligation and Castillo is a serious pitcher. He's also a former Giants farmhand who got away.
Tarik Skubal LHP, Tigers. DOB: 8/18/2020. 6' 3", 240 lbs. 13-6, 2.21, 195.1 IP, 11.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9. Arbitration $17.8 M. Free agent Nov 2026.
The White Whale! One of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. Tigers would be looking to get a huge prospect haul in return and the receiving team gets just one season before he hits free agency but what a season it could be!
Comment: To my eye it looks like Freeland and Severino are the most likely targets for the Giants in this list. We can dream on Skubal but would Buster part with Eldridge? Would we want him to? I could also see a package deal for Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan given the Giants prior interest in Gray and need for a player with Donovan's versatility and bat.an
Do the Giants have any "top 100" players other than Eldridge and 18-yo Josuar Gonzales to trade?
ReplyDeleteIsn't Eldridge all but untouchable? Especially for just 1 year of Skubal?
Perhaps very few minor leaguers are sure things, but the Giants' prospects as a group don't rank in the top half of team systems, for example ESPN's and Baseball America (both #24), but they are #14 in Fangraphs.
SF does better in quantity than quality, so there are numbers "available" for trade but to trade for a 1-year return seems less than ideal, plus who knows what we'll have when the MLB-MLBPA contract expires after the 2026 season.
I think this is going to be the most likely scenario this offseason. None of the FA pitchers are great fits for various reasons but mostly money for the difference makers. Giants fans need to prepare for losing prospects if they want to have a chance to compete next year.
ReplyDeleteIf I had my choice I would sign and trade for Skubal and give him the 10 years $375. He is the only pitcher I would give that contract to and it would take Eldridge and maybe more. If there was a package centered around Skubal and Torkelson for Eldridge and Ramos I would be onboard.
Another leaser option would be Joe Ryan and maybe there would be a package available that could bring Buxton to the bay with Ryan.
A third option would be Alcantara and possibly Xavier Edwards along with him. Again this would likely take Eldridge and more.
Bottom line is if we want to compete next year I think the smartest way is to use Eldridge as a trade chip and upgrade the rotation that way. Hopefully we get another piece along with them to fill one of our other many holes but one more potential Ace in this rotation next to Webb and Ray gives us a very good chance.
Do we know if 10 years $375 gets Skubal?
DeleteHe might just want to go down south for a half billion...
Doc, what an outstanding list and commentary! this is why i pay for premium
ReplyDeleteplus membership. thanks. -es
Thank you for the kind words.
DeleteEldridge could be traded for top tier front-line pitching - SF has Devers at first who could be backed up by re-signing Dominic Smith. Ramos is also tradeable - he's at peak value right now and you've still got Matos, Gilbert, Lee, Encarnacion, McCray, Meckler and Dean any of which could play defensive LF better than Ramos.
ReplyDeleteCouple of questions….
ReplyDelete1. How much money do they want to spend this offseason?
2. What prospects are untouchable?
3. How much more important is the present than the future?
My guess is they don’t want to spend more than $35-$40 million but would go over for the right player(s). Eldridge should fetch the best return but Josuar and Davidson are on other teams radars too. I would prefer not to lose them but Eldridge, Level, Jordan, and Whisenhunt are all attractive top 10 prospects in our system and could get us an Ace. If the present is significantly more important than the future and increasing the payroll by $100 million this offseason isn’t an option then what is the best they could get for those 4 prospects?
If they could get Alcantara and Edwards for them I would do it. Sign Bellinger and Scherzer after that and drop the mic. Rotation set, second base and leadoff set, RF and middle of the order bat set, budget met kind of, bullpen would be a work in progress but if Roki can close in the WS for the hated ones then maybe Birdsong can do it for us? Would this lineup and rotation work:
2B Edwards
1B Devers
SS Adames
RF Bellinger
3B Chapman
LF Ramos
CF Lee
DH Schmitt
C Bailey
Webb
Ray
Alcantara
Scherzer
Rouppe
That would be a serious team.
DeleteOut of those pitchers, here are my likes and dislikes in order. Salary, age and prior stats are my guide:
DeleteLikes-Order needs more research.
Like, but won't happen
Tarik Skull-Clearly the best of the group, but this is not going to happen.
Freddy Peralta-Brewer are not going to let him go.
Likes
Sandy Alcantara-Has some distance between his TJ surgery. Go get him.
Pablo Lopez-Looks good, doctors say MRI showed no elbow damage.
Joe Ryan-Local guy. Biggest issue is giving up the long ball. Perhaps Oracle against left handed hitters will serve him well.
Mackensie Gore- Slow start to his career, could sustain his first half in 2025 for a whole season
Brady Singer-Like his IP, and his SO to BB ratio looks solid. Don't know much about him. If he is available, you got to ask yourself, why?
Luis Castillo-Getting a bit long in the tooth (32 YO), but hey, bring him back to the Giants as an end game guy.
Mitch Keller- Like, but has been a 4+ ERA guy for the most part. An alternative if whiffing on all of others. End game as well.
Dis-Likes
Sonny Gray-Too old, too expensive
Kyle Freeland-I don't think he has great stuff in or out of Coors. Because of the brawl he started last year probably wouldn't go well in the clubhouse.
Luis Severino-No thanks.WHIP not great.
This all sounds right to me.
DeleteMaybe the Marlins would throw in Kyle Stowers, too
DeleteSome thought that Tony Vitello might be able to bring his pal to SF, but "...at 41 yo, Max Scherzer wants another shot at a World Series: ‘I still can do this’!" (From The Athletic)
ReplyDeleteDoes his quest for a WS and Verlander's want for Ws, are either potential Giants?
Kodai Senga is also on the trade block.
ReplyDeleteIs there some reason why the Giants would want to trade for Kodai Senga?
DeleteOther than injuries I didn’t know he was terrible pitcher lol
DeleteI guess he pitched kind of good before his most recent injury but was terrible in the second half and there is quite a litany of injuries.
Delete