Fangraphs is out with their top 50 free agent list along with contract estimates. Adding at least one SP this offseason is a Giants priority so let's look at what's available on the free agent market. Remember if we use the CBT threshold as the Giants spending limit, They have a total of about $60 M AAV to spend and they have more needs than just adding a SP.
Tier 1:
Dylan Cease RHP. Age 30. 8-12, 4.55, 168 IP, 11.52 K/9, 3.80 BB/9, 3.56 FIP. Estimated Contract: 5 yr/$130-155 M, $26-31 M AAV.
Gives you innings but ERA has been higher than FIP for past 3 seasons.
Framber Valdez LHP. Age 32. 13-11, 3.66, 192 IP, 8.77 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 2.57 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 5 Yr/$134-150 M, $28-30 AAV.
Makes up for lower K/9 with extreme groundball ratio. Appeared to hit his catcher with a pitch on purpose last season.
Ranger Suarez LHP. Age 30. 12-8, 3.20, 157.1 IP, 8.64 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 1.32 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 5 Yr/$125-130 M, $25-26 AAV.
Gets by with less than elite stuff with excellent command of a 5-pitch mix. Has spent time on IL 3 straight seasons and has never pitched 160 innings in a season.
Tier 2:
Michael King RHP. 30 yo. 5-3, 3.44, 73.1 IP, 9.33 K/9, 3.19 BB/9, 4.42 FIP. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/22 M- 4 yr/$88 M.
Coming off a down season with injuries. Might just accept a QO from the Padres.
Merrill Kelly RHP. 37 yo. 12-9, 3.52, 184 IP, 8.17 K/9, 2.35 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/$21 M- 2 yr/$32 M.
37 yo but still a reliable innings-eating SP.
Shota Imanaga LHP. 32 yo. 9-8, 3.73, 144.2 IP, 7.28 K/9, 1.62 BB/9, 4.86 FIP, 0.54 GB/FB. Estimated Contract:
Extreme flyball pitcher who doesn't get many K's. That is generally a prescription for disaster. Imanaga mitigates it with an extremely low walk rate. Numbers fell off a cliff in the second half last year.
Zac Gallen RHP. 30 yo. 13-15, 4.83, 192 IP, 8.20 K/9, 3.09 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$36-54 M. coming off one if his worst seasons.
2025 was the highest ERA of his career.
Tatsuya Imai RHP. 27 yo. 10-5, 1.92, 163.2 IP, 9.79 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.45 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 4 yr/$64 M-5 yr/$100 M.
Stats are from the NPB.
Brandon Woodruff RHP. 32 yo. 7-2, 3.20, 64.2 IP, 11.55 K/9, 1.95 BB/9. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$34 M-3 yr/$66 M.
Elite stuff and numbers when healthy. Has missed a lot of time to injury the last two years.
Chris Bassitt RHP. 36 yo. 11-9, 3.96, 170.1 IP, 8.77 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.40 GB/FB. Estimate Contract: 1 yr/$17 M-2 yr/$36 M.
At least 170 IP the last 4 seasons. Consistently puts up sub-4.00 ERA's.
Tier 3:
Lucas Giolito RHP. 31 yo. 10-4, 3.41, 145 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.48 BB/9, 4.17 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$28 M-2 yr/$36 M.
Long considered to have breakout potential. Has never quite lived up to expectations and very much runs hot and cold.
Cody Ponce RHP. 31 yo. 17-1, 1.89, 180.2 IP, 12.55 K/9, 2.04 BB/9, 1.30 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$16 M-3 yr/$24 M.
Big, hard thrower. Up and down career. Reportedly reworked his game and his body last season for the KBO. Prior to that had mixed results in the NPB. Can KBO numbers be trusted to translate to MLB?
Tyler Mahle RHP. 31 yo. 6-4, 2.18, 86.2 IP, 6.85 K/9, 3.01 BB/9, 3.37 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$26-32 M.
Pitches to contact with some success when healthy. Has struggled with injuries for the past 4 seasons.
Zack Littell RHP. 30 yo. 10-8, 3.81, 186.2 IP, 6.27 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 4.88 FIP. Estimated Contract: 2 yr/$20-24 M.
Contact pitcher who can eat innings. Hated Gabe Kapler and had an on-field meltdown punching his ticket out of San Francisco at the time. Would Buster Posey hold that against him?
Justin Verlander RHP. 43 yo. 4-11, 3.85, 152 IP, 8.11 IP, 3.08 BB/9, 0.77 GB/FB. Estimated Contract: 1 yr/$10-15 M
I am sure the Giants would be happy to have him back on another 1 yr/$15 M contract. Get 'er done, Buster then get another SP in this price range.
Comment: I would think bringing Verlander back plus adding someone like Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt on 1-2 year deals makes a lot of sense for what the Giants rotation needs. Maybe Mad Max Scherzer who did not make Fangraphs Top 50 FA list.
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