Monday, November 10, 2025

Scouting the Hot Stove League: Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates

We have looked at the starting pitchers who are ranked as top 50 free agents as well as a few others ranked in MLBTR's Honorable Mention list, aka bargain bin.  Let's look at some of MLBTR's SP trade candidates.  The advantage of acquiring a veteran pitcher via trade is they are already under contract, usually for a shorter number of years which allows the acquiring team to avoid the risk of a 5-7 year contract.  In reviewing this list it's important to remember that most of these pitchers probably won't be traded.  We also don't know what their current teams may be asking for on return or what Buster Posey and the Giants may be willing to give up in trades.  We limit our speculation to each pitcher's record, contract status(with MLBTR projected contracts for arbitration-eligible players) and reasons why they may be available. 

Mackenzie Gore LHP, Nationals.  DOB:  2/24/1999.  6' 2", 193 lbs.  $4.7 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027.  5-15, 4.17, 159.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9.  

Long considered an elite pitching prospect.  Tremendous first half of 2025 but had a brutal stretch in July.  Missed some time due to minor injuries.  Starting to get more expensive in arbitration, Nationals are rebuilding, he's likely to go to free agency and would bring back a haul of prospects.  Has pitched more like a #3 SP than ace but young enough to put his elite stuff together and break out.  Likely price would be multiple prospects including two top 100's.  

Joe Ryan RHP, Twins.  DOB:  6/5/2996.  6' 2", 205 lbs.  $5.8 M, free agent eligible Nov. 2027.  13-10, 3.42, 171 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.  

Less stuff and upside than Gore but with better present command.  Twins have not signaled a full rebuild but consensus is they will listen to offers on Ryan and Pablo Lopez RHP.  The Twins would obviously be looking for at least one top 100 prospect in return.  

Mitch Keller RHP, Pirates.  DOB:  5/4/1986.  6' 3", 212 lbs.  Under Contract:  $54.5 M through 2028($18.17 M AAV).  6-15, 4.19, 176.1 IP, 7.7 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.  

Keller is a innings-eater #3-4 SP type who would be mainly a salary dump by the Pirates and thus would not cost a top prospect.  The Giants could use a trade for him to clear out some of their OF logjam and/or get the Pirates to eat a small percentage of Keller's contract.

Sonny Gray RHP, Cardinals.  DOB:  11/7/1989.  5' 10", 190 lbs.  14-8, 180.2 IP, 10 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 25 HR.  Under Contract:  1 yr/$$35 M plus a $5 M buyout on a $30 M option for 2027.  Player opt out on the option if it is exercised.  

Giants reportedly had interest in Sonny Gray at the trade deadline.  Was that a Bob Melvin connection?  The one year salary commitment is insane and would eat up most of the Giants Pre-CBT money by itself.  A deal would likely require the Cardinals to pay off part of the salary and/or take a bad contract in return.  Giants don't really have any contracts they are looking to dump right now.  Gray is 36 years old. His K/BB still looks great but his HR rate ballooned over the last 2 seasons limiting his effectiveness. Could adding Brendan Donovan to the trade package make Gray's salary more palatable for the Giants?

Pablo Lopez RHP, Twins.  DOB:  3/7/1996.  6' 4", 225 lbs.  5-4, 2.74, 75.2 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $43.5 M through 2027($21.75 M AAV).  

Great numbers but two stints on the IL.  Salary is below market value if fully healthy.  Would probably require a top prospect in return.

Freddy Peralta RHP, Brewers.  DOB:  6/4/1996.  6' 0", 198 lbs.  $ 8 M club option for 2026, free agent Nov 2026.  17-6, 2.70, 176.2 IP, 10.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9.  

Elite SP at a bargain salary but for just one season.  Would take a substantial package in return as BrewCrew not obligated to trade him.

Sandy Alcantara RHP, Marlins.  DOB:  9/7/1995.  6' 5", 200 lbs.  Under Contract:  $17 M through 2026 plus a $2 M buyout on a $21 M team option for 2027).  

Rough comeback year from Tommy John surgery but posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 8 starts.  Marlins might want to try to further rebuild his value and aim for a midseason trade.  Depends on how badly they want to cut payroll for 2026.  

Brady Singer RHP, Reds.  DOB:  8/4/1996.  6' 5", 215 lbs.  Arbitration- $11.9 M.  Free Agent Nov 2026. 14-12, 4.03, 169.2 IP, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9.  

Affordable innings eater who might not require a huge return.  Reds have a relative pitching surplus and are looking to add a hitter or two.  Depending on how the Giants view Heliot Ramos going forward, I could see a 1 for 1 trade for him or the Reds might want to just dump the salary commitment and re-allocate the $$.

Kyle Freeland LHP, Rockies.  DOB:  5/14/1993.  6' 4", 204 lbs.  5-17, 4.98, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $16 M through 2026, $17 M vesting player option at 170 IP for 2027.

Affordable innings eater whose numbers are significantly better outside Coors Field.  A trade would probably benefit both Freeland and the Rockies.  Mainly a salary dump so would not require a top prospect in return.  Prickly personality was on display in a benches-clearing incident with the Giants in 2025.  If I'm Buster Posey I'm kicking the tires on Freeland.

Luis Severino RHP, A's.  DOB:  2/20/1994.  6' 2", 2018 lbs.  8-11, 4.54, 162.2 IP, 6.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $42 M through 2027($21 M AAV). Can opt out after 2026.  

Coming of a down season after signing a big contract.  Hated the Sacramento ballpark and had much better numbers on the road.  Buster might want to kick the tires on Sevy too.

Luis Castillo RHP, Mariners.  DOB:  12/12/1992.  6' 2", 200 lbs.  11-8, 3.54, 180.2 IP, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.  Under Contract:  $45.5 M through 2027($22.75 AAV), $25 M vesting option for 2028.

Mariners have a plethora of pitchers and might want to shed salary.  The salary might be a bit rich for the Giants taste but Greg Johnson indicated they may be willing to pay more AAV for a shorter obligation and Castillo is a serious pitcher. He's also a former Giants farmhand who got away.

Tarik Skubal LHP, Tigers.  DOB:  8/18/2020.  6' 3", 240 lbs.  13-6, 2.21, 195.1 IP, 11.1 K/9, 1.5 BB/9.  Arbitration $17.8 M.  Free agent Nov 2026.  

The White Whale!  One of the very best pitchers in all of baseball.  Tigers would be looking to get a huge prospect haul in return and the receiving team gets just one season before he hits free agency but what a season it could be!

Comment:  To my eye it looks like Freeland and Severino are the most likely targets for the Giants in this list.  We can dream on Skubal but would Buster part with Eldridge?  Would we want him to? I could also see a package deal for Sonny Gray and Brendan Donovan given the Giants prior interest in Gray and need for a player with Donovan's versatility and bat.an

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