We've had more questions and comments about the upcoming MLB Amateur Draft which is now about 3 weeks away during All-Star week. Despite having the 9'th worst record in MLB last season the Giants dropped 4 slots to pick at #13 due to teams below them moving up into the top 10 via the draft lottery. This year's draft appears to be deep but relatively weak at the top. It seems strong for college pitchers and a couple of standout high school pitchers. Historically the best ROI is for college hitters but this year's crop is unimpressive. There is a bevy of highly ranked HS shortstops but none who separate themselves.
It's an article of faith that you don't draft for need at the MLB level. While I believe in taking the best player available, especially in the first round, I think a case can be made for using later rounds to fill organizational needs. Having said that, the Giants are in a weird position where they don't have any outstanding organizational strengths or glaring weaknesses. They have a cadre of pitchers who are near MLB ready but the pitching is much less impressive at lower levels as the last few drafts and international signing periods went hitter heavy. I would say the Giants thinnest organizational position is catcher and catching is extremely thin throughout MLB right now.
With all that in mind, let's run through MLB Pipeline's top 25 draft prospects and see who the Giants might select at #13(once again they don't have a second round pick and projecting past the first two rounds is pretty much impossible).
1. Ethan Holliday SS/3B(HS). 18 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 4", 210 lbs. Almost the consensus #1 draft prospect. A physical monster with elite MLB bloodlines. Questions about hit tool have quieted during his senior season. Some mock drafts still have him dropping to his dad's old team(Rockies) at #4. It's extremely unlikely he'll be on the board at #13.
2. Seth Hernandez RHP(HS). 18 yo, 6' 4", 190 lbs. Almost perfect pitcher's frame with oodles of projection and a full arsenal of pitches. The first names that pop into my head when I see him on video are Michael Kopech and Walker Buehler. He's got a smooth, drop-and-drive delivery but if you look closely there is a lot of effort. Huge ceiling and a likely fast mover but obvious injury risk. Several mocks have him going 1-1 to the Nationals. There is a lot of aversion to drafting HS pitching in the first round so there is a chance he could drop, but probably not to #13.
3. Kade Anderson LHP(College). 20 yo. 6' 2", 179 lbs. 12-1, 3.18, 119 IP, 35 BB, 180 K's. Stock went way up with a complete game shutout in the College World Series but that raises workload questions. consensus is growing that he's the top college pitcher and some mocks have him going 1-1 to the Nationals.
4. Jamie Arnold LHP(College). 21 yo. 6' 1", 188 lbs. 8-2, 2.98, 84.2 IP, 27 BB, 119 K's. Smaller framed LHP with a delivery that reminds some observers of Chris Sale. Outstanding FB/Slider combo with a changeup he'll need to use more in the pros.
5. Eli Willits SS(HS). 17 yo. B-S, T-R. 6' 1", 180 lbs. Son of former MLB'er Reggie Willits. Youngest prospect in the draft. True SS who could also play CF due to speed. Plus hit tool, athleticism and speed. May not have the size for future power but hit 10 HR at PG All American.
6. Aiva Arquette SS(College). 21 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 5", 220 lbs. .354/.461/.654, 19 HR, 7 SB, 310 PA. Arquette emerged as the top college position prospect in the draft. Scouts think he is athletic enough to play SS long term despite his size. Plenty of present power with more to come. College hitters tend to rise in the draft for obvious reasons so he's almost surely a top 10 pick and possibly top 5.
7. Billy Carlson SS(HS): 18 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 1", 185 lbs. .365, 6 HR, 116 PA. True shortstop with more of an all-around profile than any one outstanding tool.
8. Kyson Witherspoon RHP(College). 20 yo. 6' 2", 206 lbs. 10-4, 2.65, 95 IP, 23 BB, 124 K. 5 pitch mix with a FB that touches 99 MPH. Projects as MLB SP with expected development of his secondary pitches. Young for class. Has a twin brother Malachi who also pitches for Oklahoma but is not as highly regarded as a prospect.
9. Liam Doyle LHP(College). 21 yo. 6' 2", 220 lbs. 10-4, 3.20, 95.2 IP, 32 BB, 164 K. High velocity 4-seam FB that he works up in the zone. Less command of secondary pitches which he will need to become a MLB SP.
10. JoJo Parker SS(HS): 18 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 2", 200 lbs. .465, 13 HR, 158 PA. More of a bat-first SS who will likely move to 3B or 2B in the pros. Plus hit tool with gap-to-gap approach with average to above-average power potential. One source linked him to the Giants.
11. Kayson Cunningham SS/2B(HS). 18 yo. B-L, T-R. 5' 10", 182 lbs. .445(PG career). 60 hit and run tools with some power. May be more of a 2B in the pros.
12. Marek Houston SS(College). 21 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 3", 205 lbs. .354/.458/.597, 15 HR, 19 SB, 298 PA. Top defensive SS who has improved as a hitter. Power may not translate to pros.
13. Steele Hall SS(HS). 17 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 0", 180 lbs. .484, 8 HR, 148 PA. Young for level. Defense-first SS with at least 70 speed. Bat may develop but is not his current strength. Several analysts seem to think the Giants are looking at HS SS's and at least one mock draft has them taking Hall.
14. Tyler Bremner RHP(College). 21 yo. 6' 2", 190 lbs. 5-4, 3.49, 77.1 IP, 19 BB, 111 K. A bit on the slight side for pitcher with loose arm action. Has a plus FB that gets to 98 MPH and a 65-70 grade changeup but the slider regressed this year. Swingman in college who never established himself as a true SP. Stock is down from preseason rankings. I just don't see him as a top-half first round talent.
15. Jace LaViolette OF(College). 21 yo, B-L, T-L. 6' 6", 230 lbs. .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 262 PA. Preseason #1 draft prospect on some boards. Elite size and athleticism and solid plate discipline but with horrific swing-and-miss tendencies. He could turn into a lefty-hitting Dave Kingman but more likely comp is Hunter Bishop. He would be a hard pass on my board.
16. Kruz Schoolcraft LHP(HS). 18 yo, 6' 8", 229 lbs. My "white whale" in this draft. Immense size with residual room to fill out. 2-way HS player who profiles better on the mound. Already has a solid 3-pitch mix with a FB/Slider/Change. Drop and drive 3/4 delivery which takes away some of his height advantage but still has great leverage on his pitches. Repeats his delivery well despite his height. To my eye he has the highest ceiling in the entire draft and a better than decent chance of reaching it. Giants have a long history of successfully developing HS pitching prospects.
17. Gavin Kilen 2B(College). 21 yo. B-L, T-R. 5' 11", 187 lbs. .357/.441/.671, 15 HR, 6 SB, 245 PA. Contact hitter who likes to swing early in the count. Scouting report reminds me of Joe Panik.
18. Daniel Pierce SS(HS). 18 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 0", 185 lbs. Coach's kid with average to above-average tools across the board. Bat profiles as hit over power.
19. Brendan Summerhill OF(College). 21 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 3", 200 lbs. .343/.459/.556, 4 HR, 11 SB, 207 PA. Across the board average to above-average tools. Contact hitter with projectable power. Bat would play better in CF where he may have enough speed. Played CF in the Cape Cod League but RF in college this season.
20. Luke Stevenson C(College). 20 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 1", 200 lbs. .251/.414/.552, 19 HR, 290 PA. More of a defense-first catcher with some pop in his bat. Low BA result of struggles against off-speed pitches.
21. Ike Irish C/OF(College). 21 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 2", 200 lbs. .364/.469/.710, 19 HR, 11 SB, 258 PA. More of a bat-first catcher who played mostly RF this spring after fracturing a scapula when hit by a pitch. Unclear if he's a catcher or OF in the pros.
22. Wehiwa Aloy SS(College). 21 yo. B-R, T-R. 6' 2", 201 lbs. .350/.434/.673, 21 HR, 9 SB, 311 PA. Solid college bat who has the tools to stick at SS in the pros but could also play 2B or 3B.
23. Sean Gamble 2B/OF(HS). 18 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 1", 188 lbs. .413, 4 HR. More average to above-average tools across the board. May be able to maximize his talent in CF. MLB Pipeline comps him to Bryson Stott.
24. Devin Tayler OF(College). 21 yo. B-L, T-R. 6' 1", 215 lbs. .374/.494/.706, 18 HR, 12 SB, 269 PA. Could turn into an elite lefty power bat, possibly the best college bat in the draft, but with defensive limitations to LF.
25. Slater de Brun OF(HS). 18 yo. B-L, T-L. 5' 10", 187 lbs. Undersized but ultra-athletic HS OF who MLB Pipeline comps to Corbin Carroll which is high praise.
Summary: Let's face it. This is a down year for college bats which makes it a relatively weak draft. Although there are some solid players here, there are just 3 that jump out and make me say, "holy Toledo! This kid could be a superstar!", Ethan Holliday, Seth Hernandez and Kruz Schoolcraft. Although HS pitchers are the widely considered the highest risk draft demographic, the Giants have had more success developing them than any other position including Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Logan Webb and Kyle Harrison. A lot of teams won't go near HS pitchers in the first round so there is an outside chance Hernandez is still on the board at #13 and a strong chance Schoolcraft is. If he is, Schoolcraft is my guy and it's not a particularly close call. If the Giants scouts really, really like one of the HS SS's over the others, well, OK. Of the college bats likely to be available I guess Aloy and Taylor interest me the most but man, I want Kruz Schoolcraft!
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