Hot Stove Update: Padres Put Pedal To The Metal

 One day after stirring up the fire in the Hot Stove with the blockbuster trade for Blake Snell, the Padres kept right on dealing signing Ha-Seong Kim IF, a very talented infielder from the KBO, and then swung a trade for Yu Darvish RHP in a move to further bolster their rotation.

The deal for Kim is 4 years/$25 M with an additional $5 M going to his former team in a posting fee.  Kim has mostly played SS in the KBO but is believed to be talented at multiple defensive positions.  Most analysts think he will start at 2B for the Padres or else fill a "super-utility" role.  Over the last 2 KBO seasons, Kim has slashed a .307/.393/.500 line with 49 HR and 56 SB's in 1247 PA.  Kim hits RH while Jake Cronenworth, they guy he is seeming to displace at 2B is a LH batter who slashed .285/.354/.477 himself, so the Padres have some serious juggling to do.  Gotta think Kim will hit leadoff in the Padres lineup.

The deal for Yu Darvish is interesting in that the Padres send Zach Davies RHP the other way along with 4 second tier prospects.  Darvish has a far stronger K/9 than Davies but Davies is a savvy pitchability guy who racks up Quality Starts and keeps his team in games.  Davies career ERA is only a few ticks higher at 3.79 to 3,47 for Darvish and while Darvish had a spectacular 2.01 in 2020, Davies was not shabby at 2.79.  So the Padres may not be getting as much of an upgrade as most people seem to think and the still might need to add a SP before the Hot Stove embers die out. The Padres also acquired Darvish' personal catcher from the Cubs in Victor Caratini.  

Not much to talk about from the Cubs end.  They made it clear they are rebuilding and looking to shed payroll while collecting minor league talent in volume.

Overall, the Padres are a better team than they were 3 days ago, and they were already very good.  They did pay a big price for that upgrade, but the probably don't care as they appear to have locked in a seriously contending roster for the next 3 seasons.

Hot Stove Update: Padres Acquire Blake Snell

The Padres signaled they are all in for competing immediately with the Dodgers in the NL West with a blockbuster trade in which they sent 4 highly regarded prospects to the Rays for pitching star and former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell LHP.  The prospects going to the Rays are Luis Patino RHP, Francisco Mejia C, Blake Hunt C and Cole Wilcox RHP.  

Snell needs not introduction as he is coming off a stellar postseason run and was the center of a controversial manager decision in the final game of the World Series when Kevin Cash pulled him with 1 out and a runner on first base in the 6'th inning against the Dodgers.  The Padres needed a frontline SP after losing Mike Clevinger for the entire 2021 season to Tommy John surgery.  Snell bolsters a rotation that included Dinelson Lamet RHP, Zach Davies RHP and Chris Paddack RHP.  Top pitching prospect Mackenzie Gore also remains in the picture.  Snell comes with 3 years on a relatively team friendly contract which will pay him a total of $39 M.

While this is a terrific win-now trade for the Padres, it comes with a big price as they give up a significant portion of their impressive farm system although as mentioned they retain their top pitching prospect in Gore.  Snell is not without his downsides either.  Despite ace level performance when he's in games, he has averaged less than 5 innings per start over his career and has an elbow surgery of his own(removal of loose bodies in 2019) in his rearview mirror.  

The trade is more of a head-scratcher from the Rays side and has to be frustrating for their fanbase.  After coming this close to winning it all in 2020 and Snell signed for a decent cost certainty over the next 3 years, the conventional wisdom would be to add on and make another run in 2021.  Instead, the Rays lose both Charlie Morton to free agency and now Snell, albeit for a huge haul in prospects.  It's very hard to see them replacing those two for a lower price in 2021.  It's possible the Rays see themselves taking a step back in 2021 while building for another run in 2022 or 2023. 

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Sad to report the passing of yet another HOF player from my childhood in Phil Niekro RHP.  Niekro was famous for his dancing knuckleball and incredible longevity in the game.  He made 26 starts in his age 48 season.  Sad to say there have been so many passings over the past year I have not been able to keep up with posts for all of them.  RIP Phil Niekro.  

Hot Stove Update: Pirates Dump Josh Bell to the Nationals

 Hey team!  Hope everybody is having a peaceful and safe holiday season.  The Pirates gave their fans a lump of coal to put in their Christmas stocking with a Christmas Eve trade of Josh Bell 1B to the Nationals for a couple of second tier pitching prospects, Eddy Yean and Will Crowe.  Bell had a breakout season in 2019 hitting 37 HR's but 27 of those came in a huge first half.  He's been in a sustained slump every since and slashed just .226/.305/.364 with 8 HR's in 223 PA in a shortened 2020.  On top of all that, Bell is 1B only defensively and not a good one at that with strongly negative defensive metrics for his full career.  Although he is a switch-hitter, he has a severe split favoring the left side of the plate(.271 to .233) which further limits his effectiveness.  

Given all that, it's not surprising Bell did not bring more back in return.  He is arbitration eligible for 2021 and 2022 and is due a raise on his $4.8 M salary from 2020.  The Pirates did not want to take that one and were willing to accept a couple of arms in return.  On the Nationals end, they are taking a relatively small risk on some big upside if Bell can return to 2019 form.  They can still re-sign Ryan Zimmerman as a RH bat off the bench and R side of a 1B platoon.  If the DH is here to stay, Bell's potential value increases even more.

Wil Crowe is a high floor/low ceiling former 2'nd round draft pick.  He had a rough 3 appearances in the majors in a 2020 MLB debut but projects as a 4/5 SP who can eat some innings.  Yean is a hard-throwing 19 yo RHP who has not appeared above A ball.  He may have a higher ceiling than Crowe but a longer path to reach it.

Overall, this is a reasonable yet disappointing trade return for the Bucs which does not seem to do much to jumpstart their rebuild while the Nationals did not give up much to take a chance one some serious offensive upside, especially if the DH comes back to the NL in either 2021 or 2022.  The Giants could use Bell's power potential, but don't have roster room for another 1B-only type right now, so this trade does not impact them.

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The Rangers signed the less well known Japanese FA pitcher, Kohei Arihara, to a 2-year contract for $6.2 M.  They will pay an additional 20% posting fee of $1.24 M to the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters which keeps the total package under $10 M.  Arihara reportedly has a 7 pitch mix with a FB that sits in the low 90's.  He depends on command and deception to get results which are modest by Nippon Professional Baseball League standards with a career ERA of 3.74 with a 6.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 which is close to his 2020 season line.  Arihara's signing is within the price and peformance range that the Rangers have shopped in over the past several seasons.  He should keep the Rangers in most games he pitches and eat significant innings for a modest price.  The Giants could use a pitcher of like Arihara but there are still lots of other options on the FA market for a similar price.

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I hope everybody is staying vigilant practicing social distancing and mask wearing.  For those of you who recall my posts early in the pandemic, nothing happening now is even slightly surprising.  The fundamentals of SARS-2 Coronovirus have not changed a bit since Day 1.  It is a virus spread through respiratory droplets which is approximately twice as contagious as seasonal influenza and 10-100 times as deadly. That is really all you need to know about it.  Hospitals across the nation, especially in California, are packed with extremely sick patients and in danger of running out of nursing staff and, get this, oxygen!  Yep, when we are blowing 40 liters per minute per patient that is a whole helluva lot of the life-saving gas! I don't want to even think about the consequences of running out.

I got the first dose of the vaccine through my hospital on Monday.  I barely felt the injection going in but woke up that night with a very sore shoulder.  The discomfort was already starting to wane by morning and was completely gone by 72 hours.  I did not experience any fever or constitutional symptoms.  Most of my colleagues have had very similar experiences.  The vaccine rollout is going much slower than expected with only approximately 2 million doses given out of 10 million shipped  and out of the 20 million target for the end of the year.  Unfortunately the biggest barrier to a higher vaccine rate is hesitancy on the part of potential recipients.  Since the main initial target is healthcare workers, I find this deeply disturbing.  We should know better and set a positive example.  I strongly urge all of my readers to get vaccinated as soon as possible unless you have a specific contraindication which should be listed clearly on consent forms and online information sites.

Stay safe, everybody!

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign John Brebbia

 John Brebbia RHP.   DOB:  5/30/1990.  6'1", 200 lbs.  

Career:  6-7, 3.14, 175 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2 Saves.  

The Giants signed Brebbia to a 1 year/$800 M contract after he was non-tendered by the Cardinals.  He was a stellar reliever for the Redbirds for 3 seasons before missing 2020 with TJ surgery in June 2020.  June 2021 is the absolute earliest he will be available to pitch for the Giants and more likely not until August or September, but the Giants now control his contract through the arbitration process through 2023.  

Interesting that with Anthony DeSclafini, the Giants appeared to want to defer money away from a risky 2021 revenue year to a presumably more stable future.  In this case, they are willing to make a modest up front investment to gain control of a players contract into the future.  Intriguing signing which suggest FZ and the Giants are willing to pursue any angle to get a value deal.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Anthony DeSclafani

The FZ era Giants have had a remarkable string of success with signing down-on-their-luck pitchers to modest 1 year contracts, getting bounceback performances while turning it all into a bigger payday for the pitcher the following season.  The latest bid for such a turnaround is Anthony DeSclafani RHP.  He is coming off a wretched 2020 campaign after a solid prior track record.  Let's first look at a capsule profile of the Giants new pitcher:

Anthony DeSclafani RHP.   DOB:  4/18/1990.  6'1", 195 lbs.  

2019(Reds):  9-9, 3.89, 166.2 IP, 9.02 K/9, 2.65 BB/9.

2020(Reds):  1-2, 7.22, 33.2 IP, 6.68 K/9, 4.28 BB/9.

Career:  37-39, 4.29, 656.1 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.54 BB/9.

2021(Steamer Projection):  9-10, 4.46, 163 IP, 7.90 K/9, 2.83 BB/9.

What's interesting about DeSclafani's Pitch Type list on Fangraphs is his FB velocity has gone up every year starting in 2014:  93.5, 93.7, 93.8, 94.1, 94.9, 95.2(his cutter is a tick slower which explains his lower total FB velocity than his main FB velocity).

So why was DeSclafani's 2020 season such a disaster?  Sample size?  Certainly his K/9 and BB/9 suggest he lost control of the strike zone but Eno Sarris, in a tweet reproduced on MCC, points out that both his slider and curveball flattened out in 2020, the slider more than the curve.  This may have made them more hittable within the strike zone forcing him to move them out of the zone to try for swing-and-miss pitches and thus the loss of command. 

Fixing Anthony DeSclafani seems to be a fairly straightforward project for the Giants cadre of coaches:  Maintain FB velocity while getting back the depth on the breaking pitches which should enable him to have more confidence in throwing them for strikes and harder for batters to lay off pitches that dive out of the zone.

I am totally down with this signing.  $6 M for one year is not zero risk but it is extremely low with a reasonable chance he turns in a Kevin Gausman 2020 type performance.  If FZ signs a couple more contracts like this along with a couple of minor league contract dumpster dives, I'll consider it a successful offseason.

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Speaking of minor league dumpster dives....word is Andrew Suarez LHP is close to signing a contract with a KBO team.  Since Suarez is not a FA, the Giants would get some compensation in return.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Load Up In Rule 5 Draft

As most of you know by now, I am not a big fan of the Rule 5 Draft.  It just might be the single most irrelevant event in all of sports and yes, I am aware that Johan Santana was once a Rule 5 Draftee.  Over the years, the Giants have been reasonably active in the Rule 5 Draft.  I can't recall one draftee who ever made a significant impact on the organization.  With that out of the way, let's go ahead and take a look at the players who won't likely make an impact this year.  The Giants selected Dedniel Nunez RHP from the Mets in the major league phase and made 3 selections in the minor league phase.  On the other side of the coin, they lost just one player, Jalen Miller, in the minor league phase.  Miller's path to the major leagues stalled out long ago so his exit from the organization should have close to zero impact.  Here is the breakdown for the Giants acquisitions:

Dedniel Nunez RHP.   DOB:  6/5/1996.  6'2", 180 lbs.  

2019(A/A+):  5-4, 4.39, 80.0 IP, 94 K, 23 BB.   Nunez has been a SP in the minors with a 3-pitch mix of a low-mid 90's FB, slurvy curveball and a changeup.  He reportedly had his FB up to 97 in fall instructional league prompting the Giants to think he could be a reliever at the MLB level now.  As with all Rule 5 draftees in the major league phase, Nunez will have to stick on the active roster all season or be offered back to the Mets for $50 K.  

Vince Fernandez OF.  DOB:  7/25/1995.  B-L, T-R.  6'3", 210 lbs.  

2019(AA):  .257/.346/.543, 15 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 10.6 BB%, 32.7 K%, 263 PA.  I scouted Fernandez before the 2016 draft out of UC Riverside and liked his college numbers.  He ended up going in round 10 to the Rockies.  As you can see from his line, he is a 3-true outcomes guy who is the latest to have an outside shot at turning into the Giants version of Max Muncy.  He does not have a great fielding reputation but will have an easier path to the majors if the NL permanently adopts the DH which may not happen in 2021 but seems to be eventually inevitable.  Minor league phase Rule 5 Draftees can be placed anywhere without being offered back, but Fernandez will likely start out in AAA.

Ronnie Williams RHP.  DOB:  1/6/1996.  6'0", 1709 lbs. 

2019(A+):  3-2, 3.70, 24.1 IP, 8.14 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 1 Save.                                                                            2019(AA):  2-3, 4.24, 34.0 IP, 9.53 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 1 Save.

Last scouting report I could find was in Fangraphs from 2017.  FB 88-93, potential plus changeup, average curveball.  Probably an organizational arm.

Mitchell Tolman 2B.  DOB:  6/8/1994.  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 195 lbs.  

2019(AA):  .254/.340/.344, 18 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 10 SB, 10.2 BB%, 21.7 K%, 461 PA.                                  2019(AAA):  .273/.368/.576, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13.2 BB%, 18/4 K%, 38 PA.

Probably an organizational player but intriguing plate discipline, a little speed and a smidgen of AAA experience.  Can the Giants development gurus unlock some power?

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There was a fairly dramatic announcement of a reshuffling of the lower minor leagues.  The Giants retain their affiliation(I think they actually own the team) with the San Jose Giants, but the Cal League is downgraded to low A.  The Northwest League gets a big upgrade from Short Season A to A+ with the Giants affiliate moving from Salem-Keizer to Eugene.  The Eugene Emeralds have historic ties to the Giants and have state of the art facilities funded by Nike.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Sign Wisler; Re-sign Tromp

Righthanded and late-inning relievers are fairly high on the Giants Hot Stove shopping list this winter.  On Day 2 of the virtual Winter Meetings, they signed recently non-tendered Matt Wisler RHP to a 1 year/$1.15 M contract with up to $500 K in incentives.  Wisler is known mostly for who he's been traded for, from the Padres to the Braves for Craig Kimbrel and from the Braves to the Reds for Adam Duvall.  Now, there's a name that's a trigger for some Giants fans!  That trade may make some Giants fans think we've come full circle with it.  Hm....maybe we can now finally forget about Adam Duvall and his trade?  

Wisler started his career as a SP racking up innings for the Braves, but with very mixed results and ultimately unacceptably high ERA's. He reinvented himself as a reliever and boy did he ever!  He's gone from a fairly standard 4-pitch mix SP to a 2-pitch reliever, except with a severe reverse split on the usage of his FB and Slider.  Here are those percentages over the course of his career(taken from Fangraphs):

2015:  FB 61.8%(93.3), SL 23.4%, CB 5.3%, CH 9.5%.

2016:  FB 59.2%(92.8), SL 29.2%, CB 5.7 %, CH 5.8%.

2017  FB 56.0%(92.5), SL 37.3%, CB 4.6%, CH 1.8%.

2018:  FB 49.7%(92.3), SL 46.9%, CB 3.0%, CH 0.5%.

2019:  FB 29.2%(92.8), SL 70.5%, CB 0.3%.

2002:  FB 16.6%(91.9), SL 83.4%.

His ERA's over that span:  4.71, 5.00, 8.36, 4.28, 5.61, 1.07.  

FIP's:  4.93, 4.85, 5.20, 4.69, 4.23, 3.35.  

Now, his slider is a swing and miss pitch as his K/9 rates testify:  5.94, 6.61, 6.12, 7.20, 11.05, 12.43.

It is also a pitch that is a bit hard to command as his walk rate ballooned up to 4.97 in 2020.  Add in a LOB of 99.3% and a HR/FB that dropped from 18..2% to 5.7% and you can see why the Twins may have thought that ERA was not sustainable.  On the other hand, a 1 yr/$1.15 M contract won't generally buy you a 1.07 ERA so it's not like that's what the Giants paid for here.

One thing that may have drawn FZ's attention is 25.1 IP in 18 Appearances with 4 "Openings" included.  11 of his 18 appearances lasted more than 1 inning.

A couple of Comps:  1.  Remember Luke Gregerson and his steady diet of sliders when he was with the Padres?  His slider usage with the Padres ranged from 49.6%(2009) to 68.6%(2012).  It dropped way off with future teams.  2.  Sergio Romo has averaged a 54.1% Slider rate over the course of his career with 3 seasons greater than 60%.  

So, heavy slider use is sustainable but I am not aware of any precedent for over 70% let alone 83.4%.

Matt Wisler's pitch mix and level of success will be an interesting storyline for 2021.

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The Giants also re-signed Chadwick Tromp C presumably to a minor league contract after non-tendering him as a non-arbitration eligible player earlier in the Hot Stove season.

Hot Stove Update: Giants Make Arbitration Decisions

 Arbitration Deadline Day came for the Giants on Wednesday evening.  As usual, the Giants played it close to the vest and did not reveal their decisions until late in the day.  Here's the final scorecard:  The Giants avoided arbitration by coming to terms with 6 players, offered arbitation to 2 others and "non-tendered 2.  They also created some extra 40-man roster space by "non-tendering 3 pre-arbitration eligible players.  BTW, I did not know they could even do that!  Here's the breakdown:

AGREED TO TERMS:

Alex Dickerson OF:  $2.1 M.  Dick has had more than his share of injury issues but when he's been healthy has always raked.  $2.1 M on a 1 year deal is a major bargain for the Giants.

Darin Ruf OF/1B:  $1.25 M.  It's not entirely clearly where and how Ruf fits if there's no DH, but like Dick, he rakes and wasn't half bad in the field either.  The bat alone is worth the money with minimal risk in a 1 year contract.

Austin Slater OF:  $1.15 M.  Slater's bat came alive last season but he also once again missed significant time with injury.  Maybe FZ figures he can get 1 full season out of Slater and Dick combined for a total cost of $3.25 M?  That's actually a pretty good deal!

Jarlin Garcia LHP:  $950 K.  The 3-batter rule has made LHP's who can get RH batters out incredibly valuable.  Garcia had a 0.49 ERA in 18.1 IP last year.  This deal is a steal for the Giants.

Wandy Peralta LHP:  $925 K.  Ditto Garcia.  Peralta did not have the gaudy ERA but made 25 appearances last for 27.1 IP.  Another steal for FZ.

Trevor Gott RHP:  $700 K.  Not sure what the fascination is with Gott.  He's not been very good in 2 stints with the Giants.  This is one I might have passed on. but not because of the money which is minimal.

AGREED TO ARBITRATION:

Donovan Solano 2B:  MLBTR Projected Salary- $2.2-3.8 M.  I keep waiting for "Donnie Barrels" to wake up from his coma but he just keeps barreling 'em up in his sleep.  This is a good deal even if the Giants have to pay up on the top end of the range.

Reyes Moronta RHP:  MLBTR Projected Salary- $800 K.  Of course the two sides can continue negotiation up to the moment they enter the arbitration hearing. lt seems like it would make a lot of sense for both sides to agree to $800 K and avoid the drama.  Giants obviously willing to gamble that much on Moronta's health for next season.

"NON-TENDERED":

Daniel Robertson UT:  This was widely expected but disappointing to me.  Robertson is a rare utility guy who will give you at least league average D at shortstop and he hit very well in an extremely small sample after a late acquisition last year.   I have a feeling Robertson is going to latch on somewhere and blossom but FZ seems to have his heart set on a lefty hitting utility IF and Robertson hits from the wrong side of the plate.

Tyler Anderson LHP:  Anderson did not pitch great for the Giants last year but swingmen who can eat innings don't necessarily grow on trees and the Giants are woefully short of "bulk innings" guys.  On the other hand, there was a lot of cost uncertainty in offering arbitration and pitching is plentiful on the FA market, especially after "non-tender" day.

PRE-ARBITRATION "NON-TENDERS":  

Melvin Adon RHP:  Stinks for Adon as he just blew out something in his arm after hitting 101 MPH on a pitch in winter ball.  Word is the Giants will re-sign him to a minor league deal and just wanted to clear out the 40-man roster spot.  But, would that have happened without the injury?

Rico Garcia RHP:  Just wasn't very good.  Fungible asset.  Giants have better uses for the 40-man roster spot.

Chadwick Tromp C:  Flashed a bit of power but not much else.  Look for FZ to sign a lefty hitting C to back up Buster Posey with Joey Bart getting a sprinkle of salt in Sacramento.  

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The White Sox hired away the Giants Assistant Pitching Coach, Ethan Katz, to be their head pitching coach.  The Giants responded by hiring J.P. Martinez who had been the Twins Assistant Pitching Coordinator.  Maria Guardado of sfgiants.com astutely points out that FZ and Kap are dedicated to continuing player development at the MLB level and have shown a strong preference for young coaches with a player development background.