Scouting the Draft: Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin 1-1 Smackdown

This smackdown has nothing to do with the Giants as these two are near locks to go 1-2 overall in the June 10 draft, but it's an interesting debate as to which one the Tigers should take at #1 overall and who the Orioles should hope they pass on.  They are near polar opposites in player type with Spencer Torkelson the classic slugging first baseman and Austin Martin the tooled up athlete who can play any number of premium positions.  Here's the breakdown:

Spencer Torkelson 1B/DH, College(Arizona St).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 220 lbs.

2018:  .320/.440/.734, 12 2B, 25 HR, 38 BB, 44 K, 206 AB.
2019:  .351/.446/.707, 17 2B, 23 HR, 41 BB, 45 K, 242 AB.
2020:  .340/.598/.780, 4 2B, 6 HR, 31 BB, 15 K, 50 AB.

It is impossible to find fault with the offensive numbers.  On video, his size, body type, batting stance and swing are reminiscent of Steve Garvey, although the muscles packed into his proximal arms and legs look more like Dan Uggla.  Despite the bad body, Torkelson moves well around the 1B bag and there's even talk of him being able to play a passable 3B or LF, although I would say there is a 90% chance he is strictly a 1B/DH.  That profile, especially for a B-R, T-R is generally considered a big negative, but is likely to gain value in the near future when/if the universal DH comes to pass.

Austin Martin SS/3B/CF, College(Vanderbilt).  B-R, T-R.  6'0", 170 lbs.

2018:  .338/.452/.414, 14 2B, 1 HR, 22 SB, 35 BB, 46 K, 222 AB.
2019:  .392/.486/.604, 19 2B, 4 3B, 10 HR, 18 SB, 40 BB, 34 K, 268 AB.
2020:  .377/.507/.660, 6 2B, 3 HR, 3 SB, 10 BB, 2 K, 53 AB.

Superior athlete with 5 tools who has put up terrific numbers with the premiere college baseball program in the country and against the toughest competition(SEC).  Projects as more of a gap power/20-25 HR guy but the hit tool is tops.  There is not a lot of projection left in the body. The one oddity that gives some pause is he is consistently listed as a SS on draft rankings, but hasn't really played the position for Vandy.  He was expected to move from 3B to SS in 2020 but played mostly CF amid concerns about his arm strength.  CF is also considered a premium position but a SS with his hit tool would be supremely valuable.  Problem is I am not sure he quite has the speed for CF in the majors either.

Summary:  The fact is, neither of these players is the perfect 1-1 candidate.  There are miles of distance between them and, say, an ARod or a Ken Griffey Jr or a Bryce Harper to name three.  I would rank both of them behind Adley Rutschman from last year.  The strength of this draft is not in the top tier.  It's in the depth, especially college pitching.  On the other hand, both of them should be solid MLB regulars and allow their respective drafting teams to not worry about their roster spot for at least the first 6 years of their MLB careers, which will start sooner than later.

If I was convinced Martin was a MLB shortstop, it would be an easy call for him, but it's not clear he has the arm for SS and is not even clear he quite has the speed for CF.  He could easily end up at 2B which would not be a disaster, but also not what you are looking for in a 1-1.  With Tork, what you see is what you get.  A big muscular guy who's got a great hit tool which allows his tremendous raw power to play in games.  That's enough to make his positional limitations close to a non-factor.

DrB's Verdict:  Spencer Torkelson!

PS:  I went into this with Austin Martin ranked #1 on my board but after doing all the research, I changed my mind and will flip them in my next ranking.