Hot Stove League Review: Royals

The Royals are rebuilding through the farm system and seem to be content to let that process run its course without trading vets for prospects or significant spending on the free agent market.  That translated into a quiet offseason for the Royals.  Key Lines:

Free Agents Lost:  Cheslor Cuthbert(IF), Jorge Bonifacio(OF), Jacob Barnes(RHP), Trevor Oaks(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Alex Gordon(OF- re-signed), Maikel Franco(3B), Jesse Hahn(RHP- re-signed), Trevor Rosenthal(RHP- signed minor league deal but selected for MLB club with $2 M guarantee).

Trades:  Acquired Chance Adams(RHP) from the Yankees for Cristian Perez(SS).

Rule 5 Draft:  Stephen Woods Jr. from the Rays.

Minor League Free Agents:   Greg Holland(RHP), Humberto Arteaga(IF- re-signed after being DFA's from MLB roster), Braden Shipley(RHP), Matt Reynolds(IF), Erick Mejia(UT).

Sold: Franchise to John Sherman, previously a minority owner.

Hired:  New Manager, Mike Matheny.

Summary:  Maybe the inactivity was due to uncertainty at what ownership level, but it still has to be disheartening for the fanbase.  The Royals actually have some pretty good players like Salvador Perez coming back at catcher, Whit Merrifield and last years AL HR champ, Jorge Soler, SS Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier, who could either be trade chips or building blocks to add to.  GM Dayton Moore did neither the rubbed salt in the wound by hiring a manager who was widely considered a disaster in his last stop managing the Cardinals.  BTW, Stephen Woods is a former Giants prospect.

Grade F

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Mario Zabala

Mario Zabala OF, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 195 lbs.

Mario Zabala has tools to spare.  PG's numbers include a 6.28 60 yd dash, 93 MPH OF Velocity, 100 MPH Exit Velocity.  On top of that, he'll be just 1 month down the road from his 18'th birthday on draft day.  Only negative I can see is he already has a fairly mature looking body that looks like it might not age well.  On the other hand, when your tools are already that loud, you don't necessarily need projectability.  Physically I am going to say he reminds me of a young Orlando Cepeda(hey!  I've been doing some historic pieces and they look similar).  Another fairly obvious comp would be current Giants prospect, Heliot Ramos, also from Puerto Rico(Zabala attends IMG Academy in Florida but is from Puerto Rico).  Fangraphs has him ranked #104 while I could not find him listed in MLB Pipeline's top 150.  I saw one mock draft that has him going to the Giants at #68 overall(comp pick) which would be A-OK with me.

Blast From The Past: Juan Marichal 1960

The first few seasons after the Giants moved to San Francisco must have been an incredible time to be a fan.  No less than three future Hall of Fame players made their MLB debuts as Giants over 3 consecutive seasons, Orlando Cepeda in 1958, Willie McCovey in 1959 and Juan Marichal in 1960.  All three players announced their greatness immediately with outstanding debut performances.

The Giants were one of the first teams to aggressively scout and sign players from Latin American and established a virtual pipeline in the late 1950's and early 1960's.  Juan Marichal had made a name for himself pitching for the Dominican Republic's Air Force team.  In his youth, he was a sidearmer.  After signing with the Giants, their minor league coaches convinced him to throw overhand.  Marichal added in the big leg kick to help him come over-the-top.  By the time he reached the major leagues in 1960, he was able to throw all five of his pitches, FB, Curve, Slider, Changeup and Screwball from 3 arm angles, overhand, 3/4 and sidearm.  Generally speaking, it's not a great idea to throw that many different pitches as it dilutes the pitcher's best pitches, but Marichal seemingly could throw all of them equally well and with amazing ease.

Juan's MLB debut on July 19, 1960 at age 22 could not have gone much better.  He retired the first 18 Phillies he faced and finished with a complete game, 1-hit shutout with 1 BB and 12 K's.  He followed that up by allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in another complete game in his second start against the Pirates.  He topped that off with a 10 inning complete game win while allowing 2 runs on 7 hits against the Braves.  He was less spectacular in his subsequent starts but finished the season with a record of 6-2 with a 2.66 ERA.  6 of his 11 starts were complete games.  Wow!

Juan went on to have a bit of a sophomore slump in 1961 finishing 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA.  He improved to 18-11 with a 3.36 ERA in the Pennant winning year of 1962.  He then broke out in all of his Hall of Fame glory in 1963 with an amazing record of 25-8 with a 2.41 ERA and an incredible 321.1 IP.  1963 was the first of 6 20-win seasons.

It all started with that amazing debut as a rookie in 1960.  Can you imagine attending that game and here's this rookie making his first start kicking his front leg up over his head and delivering a bewildering array of pitches from every imaginable arm angle?  Add in that the Phillies hitters were completely baffled and it must have been an unforgettable experience!

*Parts of biographical information from Juan's SABR biography and stats from Baseball Reference both linked to the left.

Hot Stove League Review: Tigers

The Tigers are treading water, sitting at the top of the draft, waiting for the farm system to kick in with the next homegrown core.  Sound familiar?  Does Miggy Cabrera still play for them?  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Edwin Jackson(RHP), Matt Moore(LHP), Gordon Beckham(IF), Tyson Ross(RHP), Matt Wotherspoon(RHP), Jose Fernandez(LHP), Zac Reininger(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  CJ Cron(1B/DH), Jonathan Schoop(2B), Ivan Nova(RHP), Cameron Maybin(OF), Austin Romine(C).

Trades:  Acquired Eric Haase(C) from the Indians for cash. Acquired Dario Agrazal(RHP) from the Pirates for Cash.

Rule 5 Draft:  Rony Garcia(RHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Jorge Bonifacio(UT), Zack Godley(RHP), Alex Wilson(RHP), Hector Santiago(LHP), Kennys Vargas(1B/DH), Jordy Mercer(SS), Christopher Smith(RHP).

Suspension:  Victor Alcantara(RHP- 80 games).

Summary:  Now in their 4'th season of rebuilding, the Tigers signed some low cost players who give them a semblance of a major league roster while waiting for the farm system to catch up and accumulate another high draft pick.  In looking over their top prospect list, I'm not sure I'm seeing an end in sight.

Grade D.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Two More College Catchers

Dillon Dingler C, College(Ohio St).  B-R, T-R.  6'3", 210 lbs.

2018:  .244/.332/.369, 8 2B, 3B, 4 HR, 176 AB.
2019:  .291/.392/.424, 9 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 165 AB.
2020:  .340/.404/.760, 4 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 50 AB.

Extremely athletic and tooled up for a catcher.  Dillon Dingler played CF for the Buckeyes his freshman season.  He moved back behind the plate for his sophomore season which was interrupted early by a hamate fracture.  Fully recovered for 2020, he came out smoking before the season was shut down.  He's got natural power that was probably blunted by after effects of the fracture in 2019 but was evident this year.  He runs a sub-6.6 60 yard dash so could easily play corner OF if not CF.  His arm is above average.  Fangraphs has him ranked #42 with an up arrow.  MLB Pipeline has him at #24.

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Michael Rothenberg C, College(Duke).  B-S, T-R.  6'3", 210 lbs.

2018:  253/.372/.385, 4 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 91 AB.
2019:  .269/.390/.481, 10 2B, 3B, 11 HR, 33 BB, 45 K, 212 AB.
2020:  .341/.531/.585, 4 2B, 2 HR, 13 BB, 9 K, 41 AB.

Tremendous raw power from both sides of the plate.  Runner up in a college HR derby with a video of one shot that cleared the LF bleachers.  Improved his plate discipline and power in 2019 and may have been starting a breakout campaign in 2020 before the season was cut short.  Superior student who also gets high marks for field leadership and handling of pitchers.  Most scouts peg him as a defense first catcher, but I think there is a high offensive ceiling in there too.  Fangraphs has him ranked #141.  MLB Pipeline does not have him in their top 150.  I really like this kid and think he could be a tremendous value in 3'rd or 4'th round.

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Some perspective on catching in the 2020 draft:  There are no Adley Rutschmans or Joey Barts in this draft but multiple catchers who could go in the first 2-3 rounds.  We previously profiled the top 3 in Tyler Soderstrom, Patrick Bailey and Austin Wells.  Soderstrom, Bailey and Rothenberg are all switch-hitters.  Wells bats lefty and Dingler righty.

Soderstrom easily has the highest ceiling and seems to have some helium.  HS catcher demographic is frightfully high risk.  He is probably a lock to go top 20 and 50-50 top 15 and an outside shot at top 10.  Bailey is considered the top college C prospect who would be a safer pick than Soderstrom and could also go top 10 but more likely top 15-20.  I absolutely love Wells' bat, but scouts are starting to see him as more of a 1B in the pros which greatly diminishes the value of the bat.

Blast From The Past: Willie McCovey 1959

Here's a fun fact:  The Giants signed Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda at the same tryout camp in  1954.  Cepeda made the Majors first in 1958 and immediately had a huge season winning ROY and contending for MVP.  Both players were first basemen which left Willie Mac blocked from here to there.  McCovey forced the issue the following season by destroying the PCL with a .372 BA with 29 HR in just 95 games.  The Giants brought him up on July 30 and tried to find another position for Cepeda because he still had better wheels than Mac who battled foot and knee issues almost from the beginning of his pro career.

The Giants were facing the Phillies in Seals Stadium on July 30 with their ace, Robin Roberts, on the mound.  The Giants 2,3 and 4 hitters in the lineup were Willie Mays, Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda. Wow!  McCovey played 1B and Cepeda started at 3B.  Willie Mac got the Giants only hit of the first inning, a single to RF with 2 outs.  Mac came up again in the 3'rd inning with 2 outs and Ed Bressoud at 3B and Mays at first.  Mays stole 2B drawing an overthrow that allowed Bressoud to score but Mays got thrown out at 3B trying to advance on the error, leaving Wille Mac to lead off the 4'th inning.

Willie McCovey led off the 4'th inning with a triple to CF.  He later scored on a Fielder's Choice error to make the score 2-0.  After the Phillies evened the score in the top of the 5'th inning, the Giants struck back with 3 runs in the bottom of the inning which included RBI singles by both Willie Mays and McCovey who also scored on a wild pitch after moving to 3B on a single by Cepeda.

Willie Mays led off the 7'th inning with a double and advanced to 3B on a passed ball.  McCovey followed with his second triple of the game to drive in Mays and later scored on a single by Daryl Spencer.  Willie Mac missed out on a chance for a 5 for 5 when Mays made the final out of bottom of the 8'th inning.  The Giants won the game 7-2 behind Mike McCormick.  Willie McCovey's final line was 4 for 4, 2 3B, 3 Runs 2 RBI's.  Now THAT is how you announce yourself to the major leagues!

The Giants were 0.5 games out of first place but coming off a 4-game losing streak.  McCovey continued to tear the cover off the ball getting a hit in each of his first 7 games while batting .467.  He later started a 22 game hit streak on August 17.  The Giants led the NL by 2 games with 8 to play, but lost 7 of those 8 to finish in third place, 4 games behind the Dodgers who would go on to beat the White Sox in the World Series.  McCovey finished the season with a BA of .354 and 13 HR's while winning Rookie of the Year after Orlando Cepeda won the same award the previous season.

Willie McCovey had to struggle for playing time over the next 3 seasons as Cepeda understandably thought he deserved first dibs on the regular 1B job.  Mac did not help himself by struggling against lefthanded pitchers and found himself mostly platooning and occasionally playing out of position in LF.  Still, he hit 51 HR's in 943 PA over those three seasons.  In the category of What Might Have Been, Mac could easily have hit another 50 HR's had he played full time those three seasons.  When he was finally given 627 PA in 1963, he crushed 44 HR's to equal the number on his jersey.  With Orlando Cepeda injured most of 1965 and traded early in 1966, Willie McCovey finally became the undisputed starting first baseman for the Giants and reeled off 6 consecutive seasons with more than 30 HR's including 45 and an MVP in 1969.  His 4 hit game with 2 triples in his MLB debut remains one of the more remembered parts of San Francisco Giants lore among longtime Giants fans.

Hot Stove League Review: Twins

The Twins are coming off a AL Central championship and a major league record 307 home runs.  They used the Hot Stove League season to double down on power and make modest additions to a mediocre pitching staff.  Key Moves:

Free Agent Losses:  Kyle Gibson(RHP), Jason Castro(C), CJ Cron(1B/DH), Jonathan Schoop(2B), Sam Dyson(RHP), Ronald Torreyes(IF), Trevor Hildenberger(RHP), Kohl Stewart(RHP), Stephen Gonsalves(LHP), Martin Perez(LHP- declined option).

Free Agent Signings:  Josh Donaldson(3B- 4 yrs/$92 M), Michael Pineda(RHP-re-signed 2 yr/$20 M), Jake Odirizzi(RHP- Accepted QO), Homer Bailey(RHP- 1 yr/$7 M), Sergio Romo(RHP- 1 yr/$5 M), Alex Avila(C), Rich Hill(LHP), Tyler Clippard(RHP).

Trades:  Acquired Kenta Maeda(RHP) and Jair Camargo(C) from the Dodgers for Brusdar Graterol(RHP) and Luke Raley(OF).  Acquired Hunter McMahon(RHP) from the Nationals for Ryne Harper(RHP).

Waiver Claim:  Matt Wisler(RHP) from the Mariners.

Extension:  Miguel Sano(3B/1B-3 yr/$30 M).

Minor League Free Agents:  Jhoulys Chacin(RHP), Cory Gearrin(RHP), Danny Coulombe(LHP), Blaine Hardy(LHP), Ryan Garton(RHP), Juan Graterol(C), Parker Bridwell(RHP), Juan Minaya(RHP), Lane Adams(OF).

Summary:  Twins lose 61 HR's from last season(Castro, Cron, Schoop) and gain 46(Donaldson, Avila) so maybe the Donaldson signing was a priority after all?  Still seems like the bigger priority was bolstering the pitching staff.  Kenta Maeda saved their Hot Stove season by demanding a trade from the Dodgers.  He was originally part of a 3-team trade to send Mookie Betts to the Bad Guys, but when the BoSox balked at Graterol's medicals, the Twins-Dodgers part of the trade was converted to a separate deal.  Maeda is a better than average SP, but has not proven to have the stamina to be more than a "five and dive" guy.  Homer Bailey will try to prove his comeback is not a fluke on a low-cost 1 year deal and the Twins will try to get a month or two out of Rich Hill(he's great when he's healthy).  Here's a fun fact:  Sergio Romo has signed contracts guaranteeing a grand total of just under $39 M in his MLB career not counting TV ads for Cadillac dealerships, etc.  Love that!  Kid from Brawley, CA deserves every penny of it.

Grade:  B.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Six College Shortstops

Nick Loftin SS, College(Baylor).  B-R, T-R.  6'1", 180 lbs.

2018:  .302/.366/.437, 12 2B, 6 HR, 5 SB, 21 BB, 20 K, 222 AB.
2019:  .323/.386/.502, 18 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 17 BB, 17 K, 235 AB.
2020:  .298/.339/.544, 4 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 57 AB.

Patient hitter with gap power who can stick at SS.  Possible power projection in body.  Up arrow on Fangraphs ranking at #23.  MLB Pipeline has him at #36.

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Anthony Servideo SS, College(Mississippi).  B-L, T-R.  5'10", 175 lbs.

2018:  .226/.314/.306.
2019:  .287/.429/.388
2020:  .390/.575/.695, 3 3B, 5 HR, 9 SB, 24 BB, 16 K, 59 AB.

Can stick at SS, but bat has not been impressive before this season which ended before adequate sample size.  Had a big Opening Day lefty vs lefty against Reid Detmers.  Has speed and an ability to take a walk but has to sell out for power.  Bleach blond hair is apparently a tradition for starting SS at Ole Miss.  #63 on Fangraphs updated list.  #111 on MLB Pipeline.

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Zavier Warren SS, College(Central Michigan).  B-S, T-R.  6'0", 190 lbs.

2018:  .277/.393/.308, 195 AB.
2019:  .333/.429/.474, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 14 SB, 240 AB.
2020:  .328/.469/.406, 64 AB.

Similar profile to Servideo except a switch-hitter.  #107 on MLB Pipeline.  #167 for Fangraphs who has him listed as a 3B.  Was a catcher in high school.

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Alika Williams SS, College(Arizona St).  B-R, T-R.  6'2", 180 lbs.

2018:  .280/.333/.333, 5 SB, 13 BB, 17 K, 186 AB.
2019:  .333/.429/.474, 12 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 9 SB, 33 BB, 28 K, 213 AB.
2020:  .250/.359/.344, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, 9 BB, 4 K, 64 AB.

Patience and gap power at the plate. Strong Cape Cod League.  Can stick at SS in the pros.  Some projection in the frame.  Fangraphs ranked #65.  #40 MLB Pipeline.

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Hayden Cantrelle SS, College(Louisiana-Lafayette).  B-S, T-R.  5'11", 175 lbs.

2018:  .287/.407/.426, 13 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 18 SB, 209 PA.
2019:  .309/.426/.504, 13 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 28 SB, 236 PA.
2020:  .136/.332/.237, 59 AB.

Athletic 2-sport star in HS as a QB who drew college interest.  Was one of 6 D1 college players with 25 XBH and 25 SB last season.  Draft stock took a hit with a slow start this spring in SSS.  Projects as an average defender at SS, plus at 2B.  Fangraphs rank #80.  119 MLB Pipeline.

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Trei Cruz SS, College(Rice).  B-S, T-R.  6'2", 200 lbs.

2018:  .279/.392/.438, 13 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 219 AB.
2019:  .305/.393/.519, 11 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 6 SB, 233 AB.
2020:  .333/.510/.519, 7 2B, HR, 54 AB.

Grandson of Jose Cruz and son of Jose Cruz Jr., memba them?  More power projection than others on this list, but less likely to stick at SS.  #179 on Fangraphs list.  #127 on MLB Pipeline.

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Giants have 5 picks in top 100(first 3 rounds).  All six of these players are draftable in my opinion, but outside the top 100.  Maybe rounds 4-5?  Was reading something yesterday that makes me think the draft might go 10 rounds.

Your 1958 San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants did not have a set lineup in their inaugural 1958 season as they featured several rookie callups midseason and platoons at more than one position.  I will list their Opening Day lineup then other key position players, starting rotation and bullpen.  As I mentioned in the Stu Miller post, they had several "swingman" pitchers who functioned as a "committee" for the #4 and #5 starting pitchers.

Opening Day Lineup:

Jim Davenport 3B     .256/.343/.406, 22 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 70 R, 41 RBI, 493 PA.
Jim King LF               .214/.343/.393, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI, 66 PA.
Willie Mays CF          .347/.419/.583, 33 2B, 11 3B, 29 HR, 31 SB, 121 R, 96 RBI, 685 PA.
Willie Kirkland RF    .258/332/.447, 25 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 3 SB, 48 R, 56 RBI, 470 PA.
Orlando Cepeda 1B   .312/.342/.512, 38 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, 15 SB, 88 R, 96 RBI, 643 PA.
Daryle Spencer SS     .256/.343/.406, 20 2B, 5 3B, 17 HR, 71 R, 74 RBI, 626 PA.
Danny O'Connell 2B  .232/.340/.314, 12 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 44 R, 23 RBI, 368 PA.
Valmy Thomas C        .259/.321/.357, 5 2B, 3 HR, 14 R, 16 RBI, 160 PA.

Other Key Position Players:

Leon Wagner LF               .317/.371/.534, 9 2B, 13. HR, 31 R, 35 RBI, 241 PA.
Felipe Alou OF                  .253/.325/.390, 9 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 4 SB, 21 R, 16 RBI, 204 PA.
Ray Jablonski IF               .230/.287/.461, 15 2B, 3B, 12 HR, 28 R, 46 RBI, 251 PA.
Bob Schmidt C                  .244/.306/.412, 20 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 46 R, 54 RBI, 432 PA.
Hank Sauer LF                 .250/.354/.436, 8 2B, 12 HR, 27 R, 46 RBI, 274 PA.
Whitey Lockman LF/2B  .238/.311/.328, 5 2B, 2 HR, 15 R, 7 RBI, 141 PA.
Ed Bressoud IF                  .263/.331/.328, 5 2B, 3 3B, 19 R, 8 RBI, 154 PA.          

Starting Rotation:

Johnny Antonelli LHP   16-13, 3.28, 241.2 IP, 41 G, 34 GS, 13 CG, 3 Sv.
Ruben Gomez RHP        10-12, 4.38, 207.2 IP, 42 G, 30 GS, 8 CG, 1 Sv.
Mike McCormick LHP  11-8, 4.59, 178.1 IP, 42 G, 28 GS, 8 CG, 1 Sv.

Swingmen:

Stu Miller(RHP)            6-9, 2.47, 182 IP, 41 G, 20 GS, 4 CG.
Al Worthington(RHP)  11-7, 3.63, 151.1 IP, 54 G, 12 GS, 1 CG, 6 Sv.
Ramon Monzant(RHP) 8-11, 4.72, 150.2 IP, 43 G, 16 GS, 4 CG, 1 Sv.
Paul Giel(RHP)              4-5, 4.70, 92 IP, 9 GS.

Closer:

Marv Grissom RHP     7-5, 3.99, 65.1 IP, 0 GS, 35 GF, 11 Sv.

As you can see, Willie Mays and Orlando Cepeda carried the main offensive load.  Leon Wagner provided an offensive boost after his callup and Hank Sauer still had some thump left in his bat. The most striking thing about the roster, to me, was the versatility of the pitching staff.  Whether that was the best way to use them is an interesting question.

Steve Dalkowski RIP

Steve Dalkowski(LHP), a legendary pitcher who never made it to the major leagues, died on March 23, 2020 of complications of COVID 19.  He was living in a care facility in Connecticut due to dementia believed to be caused by longstanding alcoholism.  Dalkowski was signed by the Orioles to a $4000 bonus out of high school in 1957 after striking out 24 batters in a game.  His pitches were never measured by a radar gun, but some observers estimate he may have hit 110 MPH.  He was challenged to throw and ball through a 1 inch thick wooden fence and successfully did so from 15 feet.

The reason Dalkowski never made the major leagues was extreme wildness.  He piled up huge strikeout number and equally huge walk numbers.  In 1960 in the California League he struck out 262 batters in 170 IP but also walked 262.  In two separate games he struck out 21 and walked 21.  Earl Weaver was his manager in AA in 1962.  Now, Weaver didn't have access to the computerized statistical spreadsheets today's managers do, but he was way ahead of his time in so many ways.  According to Dalkowski's Wikipedia biography, Weaver had him narrow down his pitch repertoire to just his fastball and slider.  He told Dalkowski to simply aim the fastball at the middle of the strike zone and depend on velocity and pitch movement to do the rest.  That was his best ERA season and he walked fewer than a batter an inning.  He appeared to be finally headed to the majors but felt a pop in his elbow during a spring training game in 1963, immediately lost velocity and never got it back.  In retrospect, he almost certainly suffered a UCL tear.  Tommy John surgery had not been invented.  Ted Williams batted against him and called him the hardest thrower in history and said he never wanted to face him again.

Steve Dalkowski was the inspiration for the character Nuke LaLoosh in the movie Bull Durham and it is said that Brendan Fraser's character in the movie The Scout was also based on him.

RIP

Hot Stove League Review: White Sox

The White Sox have some of the very best young players in all of MLB and their contention window could open as early as this season, if we have one.  They made that more likely by filling important and a big extension for the top prospect in baseball.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Yolmer Sanchez(2B), Ryan Cordell(OF), Jon Jay(OF), Charlie Wilson(OF), Ryan Goins(IF), Ivan Nova(RHP), Josh Osich(LHP), Dylan Covey(RHP), Manny Banuelos(LHP), Hector Santiago(LHP), Juan Minaya(RHP), Odrisamer Despaigne(RHP).

Free Agent Signings:  Yasmani Grandal(C- 4 yr/$73 M), Dallas Keuchel(LHP- 3 yr/$55.5 M), Jose Abreu(1B- re-sign(accepted QO then signed 2 year extension $32 M)), Edwin Encarnacion(1 yr/$12 M), Steve Cishek(RHP- 1 yr/$6 M), Gio Gonzalez(LHP- 1 yr/$5 M).

Trades:  Acquired Jonah McReynolds(3B) from the Rangers for Welington Castillo(C) and $250 K international bonus pool.  Acquired Nomar Mazara(OF) from the Rangers for Steele Walker(OF).

Waiver Claim:  Tayron Guerrero(RHP) from Marlins.

Extensions:  Yoan Moncada(3B- 5 yrs/$70 M), Luis Robert(6 yrs/$50 M), Aaron Bummer(LHP- 5 yrs/$16 M), Leury Garcia(UT- 1 yr/$3.5 M).

Minor League Free Agents:  Ross Detwiler(LHP), Andrew Romine(IF), Gorkys Hernandez(OF), Cheslor Cuthbert(IF), Caleb Frare(LHP), Ryan Burr(RHP), Nicky Delmonico(LF/1B), Bryan Mitchell(RHP), Matt Skole(DH/1B), Adalberto Mejia(LHP), Zach Putnam(RHP), Christian Friedrich(LHP).

Summary:  Yasmani Grandal is a huge upgrade at C.  Keuchel probably is not going to win any more Cy Young Awards but provide desperately needs veteran leadership for the rotation and takes pressure off some young, high ceiling arms.  EE can still mash at DH.  Perhaps the biggest move was locking up Robert to a team friendly extension allowing him to start on Opening Day without any service time implications.  This team is ready to gel and enter their contention window and these moves accelerate the process.

Grade A.

I'm Back

Hey team!  Thank you for the kind words and for reading and commenting.  Just needed a day to catch my breath.  I'll start back with regular posts later today.

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How do you think the 49'ers did in the draft?  Were you surprised by the moves?  My head tells me they probably played it smart.  They are in a place where they need quality more than quantity and you should alway take the best players you can get regardless of position, but the fanboy in me was disappointed they passed on one of the "big 3" receivers.  Also, it seems to me CB and OT are bigger needs than DT.

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Appreciate the suggestion of post about Giants future.  Here's my rough posting plan for next month or two:  1.  Finish Hot Stove Series.  2.  Do a few more historic posts(those are a lot of work and part of reason I needed a break).  3.  Will do a few more draft profiles of individual players then try some rankings or mock drafts and short lists of potential picks for 5 top picks in first 3 rounds.  BTW, does anyone else think it's possible the reason why Farhan did not trade MadBum and Smith at the deadline is he knew this is a deep draft and thought he could get more value for the compensation picks than in trades?  4.  After Hot Stove series is completed I will address State of Giants and try to do a series of State of for every team in MLB.  5. Will do more COVID updates as I deem appropriate.   May get more opinionated on that.  May not get to all of these but I think we have a ways to go before any Game Wraps or Down on the Farm posts are possible.

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Hope everybody is still well.  Stay safe!

Apology

I just want to apologize for misjudging the comment to the Mariners Hot Stove post.  I'll try to do better.

I am going to take a day or two to regroup.  Next post probably Friday 4/24/2020.

Looking forward to the NFL draft.  I don't follow football that much anymore, but hey, it's some live action related to sports!

Hot Stove Review: Rangers

The Rangers started out the Hot Stove League season with a run at Anthony Rendon, but were quickly outbid.   Coming off a run of success in signing mid-level SP's, they went back to that well with a couple of free agents and a trade.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  David Carpenter(RHP), Logan Forsythe(2B), Hunter Pence(OF).

Free Agents Signed:  Kyle Gibson(RHP), Jordan Lyles(RHP), Robinson Chirinos(C), Joely Rodriguez(LHP), Todd Frazier(3B).

Trades:  Acquired Corey Kluber(RHP) from the Indians for Emmanuel Clase(RHP) and Delino DeShields(OF).  Acquired Steele Walker(OF) from the White Sox for Nomar Mazara(OF).  Acquired Sam Travis(1B) from the Red Sox for Jeffrey Springs(LHP).  Acquired Adolis Garcia(OF) from the Cardinals for Cash.

Minor League Signings:  Cody Allen(RHP), Greg Bird(1B), Tim Dillard(RHP), Matt Duffy(3B), Tim Federowicz(C), Brian Flynn(LHP), Wei-Chiang Huang(RHP), Taylor Jungmann(RHP), Derek Law(RHP), Rob Refsnyder(2B), Yadiel Rivera(IF), Blake Swihart(C), Edinson Volquez(RHP).

Summary: Rangers continue an interesting plan which has had mixed success so far.  Probably not quite a contending team yet, even if the mid-level pitching FA's pan out.

Grade C.

*********************************************************************************

Someone responded to the Mariners Hot Stove League Review with a rant about how the Giants are in the same position as the Mariners with a lot young players who they need to find out what they can do.  Uh, no they are not.  If you think so, and also think Farhan Zaidi is a smart GM, why do you think he brought in a bunch of vets off the waiver wire just before spring training to block said young players?  Mauricio Dubon, Logan Webb and Tyler Rogers will get their looks, but almost all of the Giants top prospects are at least a half season away from being ready for their MLB debut.

Hot Stove League Review: Mariners

This was the offseason that Trader Jerry finally figured out he was spinning his wheels with all those trades and decided to go with a full blown youth movement.  His main goal in the offseason was clearing out the dead wood including franchise icon, Felix Hernandez.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Keon Broxton(1B), Ryon Healy(1B), Wade LeBlanc(LHP), Arodys Vizcaino(RHP), Felix Hernandez(RHP), Tommy Malone(RHP), Domingo Santana(OF), Tim Beckham(IF).

Free Agents Signed:  Kendall Graveman(RHP), Patrick Wisdom(3B), Yoshihisa Hirano(RHP), Taijuan Walker(RHP).

Trades:  Acquired Nestor Cortes(LHP) from the Yankees for International Bonus Money.

Rule 5 Draft:  Yohan Ramirez(RHP).

Waiver Claims:  Sam Haggerty(2B), Nick Margevicius(LHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Wei-Yin Chen(LHP), Manny Banuelos(LHP), Carlos Gonazalez(OF), Collin Cowgill(OF), Cody Anderson(RHP- released), Rymer Liriano(OF).

Major League Contract:  Evan White 1B.

Summary:  While I suspect the Mariners have no expectations of competing this season, they do have good young players who they need to give opportunities to.  The best course was to not block them with a bunch of FA signings or to break them up with a flurry of trades.  It must have taken an extreme amount of self-discipline for Trader Jerry to carry out that plan but he did.  If there is a pattern here, it's several small bets on players bouncing back from injuries.  Not much of an offseason but prudent in the longterm.

Grade C.

Blast From the Past: Stu Miller 1958

One of the more interesting things I have noted in researching these historical posts is the tremendous differences in how pitching staffs were managed in the 1950's compared to the 21'st century game.  You would think that with 4 man rotations and the emphasis on complete games, there would be an even clearer demarcation between SP's and RP's.  Not so.  For example, the three main SP's for the 1958 Giants were Johnny Antonelli, Ruben Gomez and Mike McCormick who started 34, 30 and 28 games respectively.  Antonelli and Gomez both threw over 200 innings.  Yet Antonelli, Gomez and McCormick appeared 7, 12 and 14 times in relief respectively while Antonelli earned 3 Saves with 1 each for Gomez and McCormick.

Marv Grissom served as a classic Closer making zero starts with 51 relief appearances finishing 35 games while earning 11 Saves.  The rest of the pitching staff would be described as swingmen who divided up starts and relief appearances.  The most remarkable of these was Stu Miller, a diminutive RHP whose stuff was described by sportswriter Jim Murray as "slow, slower and reverse."  His best pitch was a changeup which Murray described as a "butterfly."  Miller did not like these characterizations and insisted that he threw a standard repertoire of fastball, curve and straight change.  He reasoned that his fastball had to be better than credited or the other two pitches would not have been effective.  Miller also resented jokes about his size and disputed that he was ever blown off the mound in Candlestick Park, but that is a story for another post.

Stu Miller came up through the Cardinals organization but after NL hitters got used to his stuff, he struggled with high ERA's and was eventually traded to the Phillies who quickly gave up on him.  He found his way to the New York Giants in 1957 where Bill Rigney found a role for him pitching out of the bullpen.  Throughout his career, Miller had more success out of the bullpen than as a starter, but he was so good and so durable that he was often pressed into service as a SP.  That was the case in 1958 where he made 21 relief appearances and 20 starts for a total of 182 IP and a league-leading 2.47 ERA.  Al Worthington, Ramon Monzant and Paul Giel were used in a similar manner with 12, 16 and 9 starts and 42, 27 and 20 relief appearances respectively with less success.

Miller would pitch a total of 6 seasons for the Giants through their pennant winning run in 1962 before being traded to the Orioles.  He went on to pitch 5 seasons with the Orioles and was a major contributor to their 1966 championship run.  After retirement, he settled in Cameron Park, CA with his wife Jayne.  They died in 2015 one month apart after 62 years of marriage.

*Biographical information gleaned from SABR and stats from Baseball Reference, both sites linked to the left.

Hot Stove League Review: Oakland A's

The A's won 97 games in 2019 and still finished 10 games behind the division winning Astros.   The Astros had disastrous offseason which maybe opened a window of opportunity in 2020 for the A's.  Unlike the Astros, the A's did not lose any star players in the offseason, but then again, they did not add any either, choosing to depend on some young players to stay healthy and take the next step to becoming stars in their own right.  Time will tell if that strategy pays off.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Tanner Roark(RHP), Brett Anderson(LHP), Homer Bailey(RHP), Dean Kiekhefer(LHP), Matt Harvey(RHP), Jharel Cotton(RHP- DFA), Josh Phegley(C- non-tendered), Ryan Buchter(LHP- non-tendered), Blake Treinen(RHP- non-tendered).

Free Agents Signed:  Jake Diekman(LHP- re-signed).

Trades:  Acquired Austin Allen(C) and PTBNL or Cash from the Padres for Jurickson Profar(2B).  Acquired Vimail Machin(IF) from the Phillies for Cash.  Acquired Tony Kemp(UT) from the Cubs for Alfonso Rivas(IF).  Acquired Burch Smith(RHP) from the Giants for Cash.

Waiver Claim:  T.J. McFarland(LHP) from the D'Backs.

Minor League Free Agents:  Lucas Luetge(LHP), Zach Lee(RHP), Carlos Perez(C), Jaime Schultz(RHP), Ryan Goins(2B), Nathan Orf(IF), Brian Schlitter(RHP), Ryan Court(1B), Zac Reininger(RHP), Donnie Hart(LHP).

Summary:  The A's chose to essentially stand pat, cut their rental players loose and gamble that some young players like Sean Murphy(C), Ramon Laureano(CF), Jesus Luzardo(LHP) and AJ Puk(LHP) will step it up to bolster a strong core.  These young players are all highly respected and can very plausibly do that, but it's still a gamble with a championship window standing wide open in 2020.

Grade C.

RIP Glenn Beckert

Before Alan Trammel and Lou Whitaker manned the keystone for the Tigers, there were a couple of outstanding SS/2B combos in the National League of the late 1960's when I cut my teeth following games on the radio.  There was Gene Alley and Bill Mazeroski of the Pirates and Don Kissinger and Glenn Beckert for the Cubs.  Meanwhile it didn't seem fair that the Giants were stuck with Hal Lanier and Tito Fuentes.  I mean Tito had some decent seasons but he and Lanier were a far cry from what other teams had on the field.  Even after Chris Speier took over at SS in 1971, it was just not up to the Pirates and Cubs standards.

Glenn Beckert was a mainstay at 2B for the Cubs during my introductory years to major league baseball.  From 1966- 1970, he hit between .280 and .300 every season.  He then had a career year in 1971 batting .345.  After that his career tailed off with an accumulation of injuries not a small contribution.  By today's standards, Beckert would be considered to have an empty BA.  He didn't walk much and had almost no power, but in those days, it was extremely unusual for a middle infielder to hit for power.  So, Beckert contributed with good defense and lots of base hits.

Glenn Beckert was not a superstar or hall of fame by any stretch, but he was a solid player and a recognizable name from my childhood store of baseball memories.  He died of "natural causes" last week in Florida at the age of 79.  RIP.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo 3B, HS.  B-R, T-R.  6'4", 205 lbs.

5-tool HS player out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS in Florida(yeah, that one).  Hit, power and throw are all plus.  run and catch are average.  Projects as a 3B but 6.81 60 could put him in a corner OF spot.  94 IF velocity on throws means he could play RF.  The bat could be special and enough to play at 1B if he reaches potential.  Batting stance is a bit unorthodox.  PG compared to Jeff Bagwell, but on video, both size, physique and stance reminds me more of Hunter Pence.  Like Pence, he's long and lean with broad shoulders and room to add strength.  Sets up with weight on back foot with R knee bent and front foot extended.  While Pence brings the front foot back in a huge leg kick, Mayo just give is a quick toe-tap and fires hands from the wide base while shifting his weight forward.  Good student committed to Florida so teams will have to gauge signability.  Fangraphs has him ranked at #100.  I did not find his name in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

Hot Stove League Review: Astros

The Astros Hot Stove League season was dominated by news of MLB's investigation into the sign stealing scandal which served to distract attention from losing their best pitcher. and possibly the best pitcher in MLB, to free agency.  Oof!  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Gerrit Cole(RHP), Wade Miley(LHP), Hector Rondon(RHP), Collin McHugh(RHP), Will Harris(RHP), Robinson Chirinos(C), Aaron Sanchez(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Dustin Garneau(C), Joe Smith(RHP- re-signed), Martin Maldonado(C- re-signed).

Trades:  Acquired Blake Taylor(LHP) and Kenedy Corona(OF) from the Mets for Jake Marisnek(OF).  Acquired Austin Pruitt(RHP) from the the Rays for Peyton Battenfield(RHP) and Cal Stevenson(OF).

Suspension:  Francis Martes(RHP).

Summary:  So, winning or losing the Hot Stove League season vs the Regular Season do not necessarily correlate and often don't, but make no mistake, this was a disastrous Hot Stove performance.  Not only did they lose their ace SP with no replacement, but they lost their GM and Manager and many of the players were publicly humiliated by the Commissioner's report on the sign stealing scandal.  I mean, is there a lower grade than F?

Grade:  F-minus!

Blast From the Past: Who In the World is Willie Kirkland? 1958

I case you are wondering, the title of this post came from Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?  OK, with that out of the way, the San Francisco Giants first ever Opening Day lineup, appropriately enough, included 4 rookies:  Bob Schmidt(C), Jim Davenport(3B), Orlando Cepeda(1B) and Willie Kirkland(RF).  Davvy and Cepeda are well known to Giants fans but you don't ever hear or read much about Schmidt or Willie Kirkland.  So, who in the world is Willie Kirkland?

I was actually not able to find much information about Willie Kirkland even though he had a not-insignificant MLB career.  He does not have a SABR biography to date.  Like Leon Wagner, Kirkland was born in the South but grew up in the Detroit, Michigan area.  He was signed by the Giants out of high school in 1952 and worked his way up the farm system ladder.  His MLB debut was delayed by a year of military service in 1957.  He was the Giants primary RF and Opening Day starter there in his rookie campaign of 1958.  His batting line was a respectable .258/.332/.447, 25 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 470 PA.  That improved to .272/.335/.475 22 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 511 PA in 1959 and .252/.315/.454, 21 2B, 10 3B, 21 HR, 567 PA in 1960.

Somewhat inexplicably, the Giants traded him and LHP Johnny Antonelli to the Indians for Harvey Kuenn after the 1960 season.  Kirkland had his best power season for the Indians in 1961 with a line of .259/.318/.474, 22 2B, 5 3B, 27 HR, 525 PA.  His production fell off dramatically after the 1961 season as he never hit above .231 the rest of his career through 1966.  For his part, Harvey Kuenn had little power but proved to be a good OBP man and played a significant role in the Giants 1962 pennant run.  Johnny Antonelli was done and 1961 was his final season in which he pitched just 58.2 innings for two teams, so the trade worked out well for the Giants.

Willie Kirkland extended his baseball career playing in Japan.  I was not able to find any other information about his post-MLB life.  He is apparently still alive at the age of 86.

Hot Stove Season Review: Angels

Maybe it's because the Angels feel they've lost ground in the SoCal market to the Dodgers over the past few seasons or maybe it's because they've looked into the not-so-distant future and seen the Mike Trout window closing, maybe a bit of both, but the Angels were clearly looking to make a big splash or even two coming into this last Hot Stove League Season.  If you believe the rumors, they had designs on signing both of the top two free agents on the market, Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, in that order.  Of their needs, pitching was what everybody could and can see.  Alas, it seems Gerrit Cole played on a Yankees travel ball team as a kid and had his heart set on pitching in the Big Apple. Key Lines:

Free Agent Losses:  Kole Calhoun(OF), Trevor Cahill(RHP), Justin Bour(1B), Luis Garcia(RHP), Kevan Smith(C), Nick Tropeano(RHP), Adalberto Mejia(LHP), Kaleb Cowart(IF), Miguel Del Pozo(LHP), Kean Wong(IF), Jake Jewell(RHP), Luis Madero(RHP).

Free Agent Signings:  Anthony Rendon(3B- 7 yrs/$245 M), Julio Teheran(RHP- 1 yr/$9 M), Jason Castro(C- 1 yr/$6.85 M).

Trades:  Acquired Dylan Bundy(RHP) from the Orioles for Isaac Mattson(RHP), Zach Peek(RHP), Kyle Bradish(RHP), Kyle Brnovich(RHP).  Acquired Garrett Williams(LHP) from the Giants for Zack Cozart(IF) and Will Wilson(SS/IF).  Acquired Matt Andriese(RHP) from the D'Backs for Jeremy Beasley(RHP).  Acquired Kyle Kellar(RHP) from the Marlins for Jose Estrada(C).  Acquired Parker Markel(RHP) from the Pirates for Cash.

Waiver Claims:  Mike Mayers(RHP), Jose Quijada(LHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Ryan Buchter(LHP), JC Ramirez(RHP), Hoby Milner(RHP), Neil Ramirez(RHP), Elliott Soto(IF).

Summary:  Any team that adds a hitter of Anthony Rendon's caliber is going to be a better team, and the Angels have never worried much about the back end of long term contracts, which makes the desperation to get rid of Cozart and his contract all the more bizarre.  Since I am a Giants fan, I am happy they were willing to sacrifice a first round draft pick to do it.  Then there is the curious trade that didn't happen.  We may never know what prospect was going to the Dodgers with Luis Rengifo for Joc Pederson and Ross Stripling.  If it was Jo Adell, then Arte Moreno probably got lucky the trade was delayed had he to act on his buyer's remorse.  If not, well, it sure seems like Pederson and Stripling would have helped the Angels a lot.  So, the big splash signing of Anthony Rendon saves an otherwise bizarre and inadequate Hot Stove Season.

Grade:  B-

Blast From the Past: The Legend of Daddy Wags 1958

Younger readers who may feel frustrated with some of Brian Sabean's and/or Bobby Evans trades over the past 20 years or so really have no idea what a bad trade looks like.  For those of us who cut our teeth on Giants of the 1960's, the litany stars who got away in bad trades is almost too long to recount.  Orlando Cepeda, the Alous, Gaylord Perry, George Foster, Gary Matthews, Garry Maddox, Bobby Bonds, Jack Clark.  I could go on.  I'm guessing some of you have never heard of Leon Wagner and fewer of you know he had a great rookie season in 1958 but was later traded and became a star for other teams.  So, pull up a chair and let me recount the legend of Daddy Wags, as he liked to call himself.

When I was a kid, my parents did not have TV in our home.  We did not get a daily newspaper.  My connection to the outside world came through radio.  I used to beg to go to the barbershop because that was the only place I had a chance to read the Sporting Green.  We used to drive down to SoCal to visit my grandparents 2-3 times a year.  They had a black and white TV and I would scour the TV Guide looking for ballgames to watch.  I have a vague recollection of finding an Angels-Indians game and seeing a lefthanded batter for the Indians named Leon Wagner rake 2 XBH's in his first two AB's.  I've looked for that game on game logs on Baseball Reference but have not been able to find it, so maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.  I just remember thinking to myself that Leon Wagner would look very good in a Giants uniform.  Little did I know at the time, but he started his career wearing a Giants uniform!

Leon Wagner was a 3-sport star from Michigan in high school.  He went to Tuskegee Institute on a football scholarship but dropped out after 3 semesters to work in the auto industry.  A Giants scout literally signed off of a sandlot in 1954.  He raked at every level of the Giants farm system with an interruption for military service.  The Giants had an unsettled left field situation in their inaugural San Francisco season in 1958 and Wagner got his promotion to MLB on June 22.  He crushed the ball for a .317 BA with 13 HR's in 240 PA's.  Unfortunately, he was not a good fielder and committed 5 errors in left field.  Although he always insisted that he was actually a good defensive outfielder, his managers saw him as having bad hands, taking bad routes to the ball and a weak throwing arm.  Manager Bill Rigney preferred the better fielding Jackie Brandt for LF in 1959 and Wagner was traded to....you guessed it....the Cardinals.

Wags didn't play much for the Cardinals in 1960 and might have washed out of MLB entirely had it not been for expansion in 1961.  He was traded to the Angels where he enjoyed 3 really good seasons, again with Bill Rigney as his Manager.  He loved Southern California where he was an eager entrepreneur who started a clothing store("Buy your Rags from Daddy Wags!) and a record store.  He was traded to the Indians after the 1963 season in a move that was widely criticized by Angels fans and sportswriters.  Although he hit well for the Indians for several years and was loved by Indians fans, he left his heart in Southern California and maintained his businesses there.  All in all, from 1961-1965 he averaged 30 HR's and 90 RBI's for the Angels and Indians.  He hooked on with the Giants at the tail end of his career and got 15 PA's in 1969 and retired as a Giant.

Wags started a movie career after retirement appearing in a small role in the John Cassavetes movie A Woman Under the Influence and a bigger role in The Bingo Long Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings.  Unfortunately, he did not get any more significant roles and his businesses struggled.  Sadly he ended up addicted to drugs and alcohol and lived on the streets for years.  He was found dead on January 3, 2004 in a shed behind a video store he had converted into a makeshift home. It's been said that if Leon Wagner was born 10 years later, he might have been a very successful DH.

And that is the legend of Daddy Wags, one more Giants trade that helped other teams.

*Biographical info gleaned mostly from SABR biography and stats from Fangraphs.

Hot Stove League Review: Nationals

We'll wrap up the NL half of our Hot Stove League review with the defending World Series Champion Nationals.  Teams that win World Series generally do so because of good players.  Those good players then expect, rightfully so, to get paid for their accomplishments which often leads to some very tough decisions for management.  Do sign those players to long term contracts which may weaken the team 3-5 years down the road or do you let them go and essentially start team building all over again?  Giants fans know the scenario all too well.

The Nationals were faced with a whole raft of free agents at the end of their run including two of their very best players, Anthony Rendon and Steven Strasburg.  They ended up splitting their bet, letting Rendon go while signing Strasburg to a 7 year contract.  They also ended up re-signing several of their veteran role players, but it is unlikely they will not miss Rendon's enormous offensive contributions.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Jeremy Hellickson(RHP-retired), Gerardo Parra(OF), Brian Dozier(2B), Anthony Rendon(3B), Fernando Rodney(RHP), Jonny Venters(LHP), Matt Adams(1B), Logan Ondresek(RHP), Koda Glover(RHP- retired), Hunter Strickland(RHP).

Free Agents Retained:  Steven Strasburg(RHP- 7 yrs), Daniel Hudson(RHP), Howie Kendrick(UT), Asdrubal Cabrera(IF), Yan Gomes(C), Ryan Zimmerman(1B), Javy Guerra(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Kyle Finnegan(LHP), Will Harris(RHP), Starlin Castro(2B), Eric Thames(1B/LF).

Trades:  Acquired Ryne Harper(RHP) from the Twins for Hunter McMahon(RHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Fernando Abad(LHP), David Hernandez(RHP), Carlos Tocci(OF), Mac Williamson(OF), Welington Castillo(C), Kevin Quackenbush(RHP), Emilio Bonifacio(UT), JB Shuck(OF), Allen Webster(RHP).

Summary:  The Nationals apparently think they have a replacement for Rendon in rookie Carter Kieboom.  That's big burden to put on a rook.  They will hope Starlin Castro is enough of an upgrade at 2B and for OF's Victor Robles and Juan Soto to progress up their development curve to make up the difference.  Strasburg should be excellent for another 2-3 years and not so good on the back-end of the contract, but the Nationals have never concerned themselves with the back-end years of longterm contracts going all the way back to Jayson Werth.  They will hope they kept the right veteran role players for another run in 2020.

Grade C.

Blast From the Past: Jim Davenport Dodger Destroyer 1958

I recall a postgame interview on KSFO sometime back the late '60's with Jim Davenport.  I always thought that was a classy name for a ballplayer and was a bit of a curiosity to me because my grandmother always called the sofa in the living room the "davenport."  He and I also shared a first name.  Anyway, in this postgame interview Lon mentioned that Jim had a history of playing well against the Dodgers.  Jim kind of laughed and said he might not have had a big league career at all were it not for hitting very well agains the Dodgers in his rookie season.  Boy, did he ever!

Jim Davenport was an infielder for the Giants for 13 seasons from his rookie season in 1958 through 1970, mostly playing 3B but also some SS and 2B.  His first major league AB was also the first AB for any San Francisco Giant, leading off the bottom of the first inning against the Dodgers in Seals Stadium.  He struck out, but ended up with 2 hits in 4 AB's plus a Sac Fly for the game as the Giants won 8-0.  Game 2 of that series, he went 1 for 4.  Game 3 he went 4 for 5 with a double.  The teams moved south for the second half of a home-and-home series and he went 3 for 5 with a double.  Game 2 he went 2 for 4 with a double and a BB. Game 3, 1 for 4, BB.  All told in those first 6 games in San Francisco Giants history, his composite line was 13 for 26, 3 2B, 2 BB, SF.

"Davvy" didn't do much more at the plate until May 9 when the Giants met the Dodgers again to start another home-and-homer with 2 games in each city.  Game 1, he went 3 for 5, 3B in an 11-3 Giants win.  Game 2, he went 1 for 4.  Game 3 in LA 2 for 4, 2 BB.  Game 4, 2 for 5, 2 BB.  The Two teams would not meet again until August 8 in LA.  Game 1, 1 for 4.  Game 2, 3 for 4, HR.  Then in the series finale, a stupendous 5 for 6, 2B, 2 HR!

The Giants and Dodgers would later hook up for 9 consecutive games including 2 doubleheaders starting August 29 in Seals Stadium.  Davvy went 1 for 4 in Game 1.  2 for 4, 2 HR, BB in Game 2.  1 for 2, BB, HBP in Game 3(2'nd game of a DH.  Hmm....wonder why the HBP?).  2 for 4 in Game 4.  1 for 5 in Game 5.  In Game 6(game 2 of another DH), he went 0 for 7 in 16 innings.  It was the first time he went hitless against the Dodgers.  After two more 0 for 4's, he went 2 for 6 in the final meeting between the Giants and Dodgers in 1958.  Overall, his split line against the Dodgers was .406/.463/.635, 5 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 10 BB, HBP, SF in 108 PA.  He hit just .213 against the rest of the league.  So, how did he do against the Dodgers the rest of his career?  As you might expect, being good sabermetricians and all, he regressed to the mean hitting just .232 for a career BA against the Dodgers of .260 just .002 above his overall career BA.

Jim Davenport was a Dodger killer as a rookie in 1958.  Were it not for that magical run, his career might have ended after his rookie season.  Instead, he parlayed it into a 13 year MLB career with more coaching and managing after he retired.

Hot Stove League Review: Marlins

Despite finding themselves in the still-early stages of a complete rebuild, the Marlins were quite active in the Hot Stove League including spending money on some veteran talent which may keep them from being horrible in 2020.  Key moves:

Free Agent Losses:  Starlin Castro(2B), Wei-Yin Chen(LHP), Jarlin Garcia(LHP), JT Riddle(SS/CF), Tayron Guerrero(RHP), Tyler Kinley(RHP), Hector Noesi(RHP), Bryan Holaday(C), Jose Quijada(LHP), Brian Moran(LHP), Martin Prado(IF- Retired), Curtis Granderson(OF- Retired).

Free Agents Signed:  Corey Dickerson(OF- 2 yrs/$17.5 M), Brandon Kintzler(RHP), Francisco Cervelli(C), Matt Joyce(OF), Yimi Garcia(RHP).

Trades:  1.  Acquired Jonathan Villar(IF/OF) from the Orioles for Easton Lucas(LHP).  2.  Acquired Steven Tarpley(LHP) from the Yankees for James Nelson(3B) and cash.  3.  Acquired Angeudis Santos(IF) from the Red Sox for Austin Brice(RHP).  4.  Acquired Jose Estrada(C) from the Angels for Kyle Keller(RHP).  5.  Acquired Deowill Burgos(OF) from the Cardinals for Austin Dean(OF).

Waiver Claim:  Jesus Aguilar(1B) from the Rays.

Rule 5 Draft:  Sterling Sharp(RHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Matt Kemp(OF), Brad Boxberger(RHP), Sean Rodriguez(UT), Josh Smith(RHP), Ryan Lavarnaway(C), Pat Ventitte(RHP/LHP), Ryan Cook(RHP).

Summary:  A mixture of present value pickups and future lottery tickets which is all appropriate for a team in the middle of a rebuild although I would like to see more teams rebuild the way the Reds are doing it.  It's not clear to me why they let Jarlin Garcia get away, but as a Giants fan I'm happy they did.  Steven Tarpley looks like he has a chance to be a better lefty reliever, but hey!  You can never have too many of those, right?  Kintzler is a guy I thought the Giants might be interested in who will bolster the bullpen at a nice price.  The big coup was trading for Jonathan Villar who the Orioles inexplicably jettisoned.  It also did not cost them anything to hope for a rebound season from Jesus Aguilar who was 6'th in voting for MVP in 2018.

Grade C+.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Joey Wiemer

Joey Wiemer OF, College(Cincinnati).  B-R, T-R.  6'5", 215 lbs.

2018:  .266/.387/.411, 8 2B, 5 HR, 9 SB, 25 BB, 36 K, 158 AB.
2019:  .263/.360/.408, 13 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 21 SB, 32 BB, 59 K, 240 AB.
2020:  .264/.435/.396, 4 2B, HR, 5 SB, 14 BB, 9 K, 53 AB.
2019 CCL:  .271, 8 2B, HR, 8 SB, 16 BB, 27 K, 129 AB.

Joey Wiemer is a 5-tool college OF with tremendous athleticism for his size.  His PG scouting report coming out of HS had him at 90 MPH off the mound and 93 MPH from the OF and a 6.73 60 yd dash and 93 MPH exit velocity.  He is tall with long arms and legs and a brawny build that can carry more, although there is plenty of present strength.  Physically he reminds me a lot of Jayson Werth.  Plate discipline numbers look good, but the concern here is with his relatively low BA's in college which often translate to 40 points lower in the pros, although he was able to maintain his typical stat line in the Cape Cod League. He also still hasn't really tapped into his power.  I'm not sure what to make of the swing.  He starts out holding the bat high over his head then brings his hands into load position as the pitch is delivered.  The first part of the swing seems pretty direct to the ball, but then he just unleashes his whole body with a lot of pull action and head movement, at least to my eye.  One reaction I had from the video was it reminds me of a slow-pitch softball swing, but then so did Bryce Harper's swing when he was a draft prospect.

The ceiling here is sky high but with a ton of risk.  Swing probably needs to be completely re-worked, always a risky proposition.  Fangraphs has him ranked at #73 while. MLB Pipeline does not have him in their top 100.

Blast From the Past: Orlando Cepeda 1958

The final 3 seasons on New York were forgettable for Giants fans as the team aged dramatically around Willie Mays who remained a great player.  With a new start in San Francisco, the Giants were ready to start a youth movement and had farm system to do it.  With an active Latin American presence and George Genovese scouting the African American community, the Giants had one of the more impressive runs of "homegrown" talent graduate from 1958 through the early '70's.  Unfortunately they squandered much of it, especially in the later years.

The 1958 rookie class included names like Jim Davenport(3B), Bob Schmidt(C), Willie Kirkland(OF), Leon Wagner(OF), and Felipe Alou(OF), but the biggest star of that group was Orlando Cepeda(1B).  Cepeda was from Puerto Rico, the son of a professional baseball player from the Puerto Rican league.  His mother was just 4'11", but he grew into a strapping 6'2", 210 lbs and oh my!  He could hit a baseball hard!  He made his MLB debut on Opening Day 1958 and doubled in 5 AB.  He remained the regular first baseman for the season as the Giants finished in third place in the NL behind the Braves and Pirates.  Cepeda batted fifth in the Giants lineup on most days and raked all season long.  I could be wrong, but I believe his batting line that season was the best by a Giants rookie in franchise history, at least in the San Francisco era.  Here it is in all it's glory:

.312/.342/.512, 38 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, 15 SB, 88 R, 96 RBI, 643 PA.

The most surprising part of that line to me?  The 15 SB's.  I never realized that Cepeda was ever that mobile before I researched this post.  In fact, he had double digit SB's in each of his first 5 MLB seasons peaking at 23 in 1959.

The transition from New York to San Francisco was not a smooth one for either the players or the fans.  The team's stars, Willie Mays and Johnny Antonelli loved playing in New York and had trouble adjusting to life on the left coast.  San Francisco fans resented the comparison with the Big Apple and  didn't love the transplanted players.  Orlando Cepeda loved San Francisco and had never played in New York.  With an ebullient personality and his outstanding performance on the field, he quickly established himself as the local fan favorite even if that love did not necessarily extend to his managers.

The arrival of Willie McCovey the following season led to an ongoing dilemma of how to get both players on the field.  Despite that tension, Cepeda average 32 HR's/season over the next 6 years.  He Led the NL in HR's and RBI's with 46 and 142 respectively in 1964, but finished second in the MVP voting to Frank Robinson of the Reds.  As McCovey's career blossomed and both he and Cepeda became more tied to first base, the Giants and Cepeda became more and more frustrated with each other.  Cepeda missed most of the 1965 season with an injury.  The Giants finally traded him in 1966 to the Cardinals for Ray Sadecki, but that's a whole story in itself.  Cepeda's rookie season and subsequent 6 year run remains one of the greatest in Giants history.

Hot Stove League Review: Phillies

The Phillies audacious plan to buy their way to contention in 2019 fell way short.  They doubled down on that bet this year with a 9 figure contract to bolster their pitching for 2020 and beyond.  Key moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Cesar Hernandez(2B- non-tendered), Maikel Franco(3B- non-tendered), Corey Dickerson(OF), Logan Morrison(1B/OF), Drew Smyly(LHP), Juan Nicasio(RHP), Jason Vargas(LHP- option declined), Pat Neshek(RHP-option declined), Jared Hughes(RHP- option declined), Mike Morin(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Zack Wheeler(RHP- 5yr/$118 M), Didi Gregorius(SS- 1 yr/$14 M), Tommy Hunter(RHP).

Trades:  Aquired Kyle Garlick(OF) from the Dodgers for Tyler Gilbert(LHP).  Acquired Cristopher Sanchez(LHP) from the Rays for Curtis Mead(IF).

Waiver Claims:  Deolis Guerra(RHP), Reggie McClain(RHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Neil Walker(2B), Josh Harrison(IF), Francisco Liriano(LHP), Logan Forsythe(2B), Anthony Swarzak(RHP), Bud Norris(RHP), Blake Parker(RHP), Ronald Torreyes(IF), TJ Rivera(IF), Mikie Mahtook(OF), Matt Szczur(OF), Phil Gosselin(IF), Christian Betancourt(C/OF/RHP).

Summary:  The Phillies top priority coming into the Hot Stove League was bolstering a very thin pitching rotation.  Zack Wheeler brings a scary injury history, but is coming off 2 consecutive healthy and productive seasons with the Mets.  Signing Wheeler has the added benefit of weakening a division rival who also has designs on contending.  The Phils may still be a SP short and it's curious they did not try harder to keep Drew Smyly.  Didi Gregorius won't have the short RF porch of Yankee Stadium to aim at for HR's but Citizen's Bank Park is also hitter-friendly and should give him a great shot at a comeback season to boost his stock on a bridging contract.  Expanded rosters may enable the Phils to keep Kyle Garlick as a potent RH bat off the bench.  They also bolstered their shaky bullpen, but more with quantity than quality.

Grade B.

COVID 19 Update and Thoughts on Starting the MLB Season

It's been a little over 2 weeks since I last posted about COVID 19.  Wow!  It seems like over 2 years! Our world, countries and communities have changed dramatically since then.  We have been forced in a matter of a few days to completely rethink how we interact not just with society in general but with co-workers, customers, close friends and even family.  After 2 brutal and traumatizing weeks, it looks like the U.S. might, I say MIGHT, be close to the apex of the COVID 19 pandemic.  On that shred of hope, stock markets are up and we hear talk of "opening up the country" and yes, having professional sports seasons in one form or another.  With that background I again offer my thoughts on where we are in the pandemic and where we might be going.  Again, I will try to stick to facts as I understand them.  Any opinions I express are mine and do not necessarily reflect those of the leadership of my medical group or profession.

To date, the U.S. has recorded almost 470, 000 known cases and almost 17, 000 deaths.  The Case Fatality ratio for known cases is right around 3.5% which is remarkably similar to the experiences of other countries at similar stages.  That percentage may grow since deaths often occur 2-3 weeks after diagnosis.  It will also likely grow if the healthcare system is overwhelmed.  Worldwide, the known case-fatality ratio is approximately 5%.  The true case-fatality ratio is likely much lower because we do not know the true denominator for cases due to lack of available testing.  On the other hand, if you get sick enough to seek medical attention and get tested, you have at least a 3.5% chance of dying which is....well....terrifying.  If you get sick enough to need ventilator support, you have less than a 50% chance of surviving, also terrifying.  To date, there are still no proven effective therapies other than supportive care such as oxygen and ventilator support.

Some may look at the overall mortality from COVID 19 and be tempted to think this is not much different than seasonal influenza which kills between 20,000 and 50, 000 people every year.  These are probably not comparable numbers due to differences in counting methods.  With seasonal influenza, yearly death rates are not known until the entire flu season is over and are calculated based on the increase of overall death rates during flu season compared to baseline.  So far with COVID 19, death rates are based on deaths directly attributed to diagnosed cases.  In other words, we do not see large numbers of people get admitted to the hospital, suffer respiratory failure and die due to a specific diagnosis of influenza which is what we are seeing with COVID 19.  The total deaths attributable to COVID 19 will likely be much higher after this retrospective analysis is done.

In California, it appears that early mitigation efforts have successfully "flattened the curve" although we have a very worrisome surge going in multiple skilled nursing and assisted living facilities filled with extremely high risk residents.  I would liken this situation a large forest at the end of a long drought with a strong Santa Ana or El Diablo wind blowing.  Very scary situation!  Just to illustrate the ripple effects of a nursing home outbreak, I know a person whose significant other worked as a skilled healthcare provider in a skilled nursing facility which suffered an outbreak.  The significant other is now on a ventilator in an ICU and the person I know is now experiencing symptoms.

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Much analysis will need to be deferred until after the pandemic has run its course and we have all the data collected but I will offer some early thoughts on lessens we have learned so far:

1.  Early containment is possible as evidenced by countries such as South Korea and Germany who were able to aggressively test and quarantine infected individuals.  We did not do this in the U.S. and it is way too late to start now.  It may become a viable strategy again if/when we get the numbers of new cases to low numbers.  Right now, testing is mainly useful for triage purposes in hospitals.

2.  Mitigation efforts are effective.  The earlier and more aggressively they are instituted, the more effective.

3.  The economic vs public health choice is probably a false choice.  Every single country and state that has tried to preserve economic activity has eventually been forced by disastrous death rates to institute aggressive public health mitigation efforts.

4.  Barring the development of an effective vaccine or antiviral drug, it remains to be seen whether mitigation reduces total cases and deaths or simply flattens the curve while maintaining the same total volume under the curve.

5.  Even if the curve is only flattened, mitigation still likely saves lives by maintaining a functioning healthcare system.  A functioning healthcare system can likely save at least 50% of lives who would otherwise be lost.

6.  Early evidence suggests that if mitigation efforts are lifted too soon and too completely, cases and deaths start to rise again almost immediately.

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So, where are we headed and what does all this mean for the future of the entertainment industry in general and professional sports in particular?

1.  Large gatherings of people in one place will likely remain prohibitively risky until/unless we have an effective and widely available vaccine and/or anti-viral agent(s).

2.  In the meantime, entertainment venues will have to either remain shut down or will have to find ways to adapt.

3.  More than just entertainment venues, things like educational activities and business meetings and conferences will need to adapt, in some cases radically, to the need for continued mitigation.

4.  MLB(and other pro sports) is likely facing a choice between a fully cancelled season and finding an adaptive way to proceed.  The idea of having a regional season concentrated in Arizona is interesting but has enormous logistical barriers and risks which will be both costly and difficult to implement.  On the other hand, we may well be as much as 2-3 years away from being able to hold a normal baseball season with games played in front large, packed stadiums, so overcoming the logistical barriers and managing the risks may be worth the cost and trouble.

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Hot Tip:  If you enjoyed the books and/or movies Moneyball, The Blind Side and The Big Short, by economist and author Michael Lewis, you may also be interested in reading his latest book, The Fifth Risk which is directly related to the government's response, or lack thereof, to the current COVID 19 pandemic.  It was written in 2017, is downright prophetic and will likely change the way you think about government.

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One more thought:  There is a lot of interest in antibody testing and possibly allowing antibody positive people full access to the economy while keeping everybody else in social and economic isolation.  I want you to stop for just a minute and think about the enormous socioeconomic implications of this idea.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Enrique Bradfield Jr.

Enrique Bradfield Jr. OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'0", 155 lbs.

4 tool athlete with tremendous speed.  Possibly fastest kid in the draft with a 6.26 60-yd dash.  FB only 74 off the mound but 85 MPH on OF throws.  Thin frame with limited room to add weight, but wiry strong.  More of a line drive stroke but barrels it up and drives outside pitches the other way.  Already has good pitch recognition skills.  Projects as a true CF/leadoff batter.  My comp is Dee Gordon but I've also seen Juan Pierre and Kenny Lofton comps.  Committed to Vanderbilt so may have to go in first round to go pro which is a bit of a stretch.  Fangraphs has him ranked #84 and calls him a "skinny 70 runner with slash and dash approach."  PG says "outstanding athlete and bat really projects."  MLB Pipeline has him ranked #79 and notes "top-of-the-scale speed and "knows his game is to see pitches, get on base, put the ball in play and let his legs do the rest....old school leadoff type hitter."  MLB Pipeline also notes he is a "....polarizing prospect because of a lack of physicality and questions over his ability to add strength."

Blast from the Past: Your 1954 World Series Champion New York Giants!

It's hard to believe that before 2010, to find the last Giants franchise team to win the World Series you had to go all the way back to 1954 when they were still in New York.  As I think I have mentioned before, I've always been fascinated by lineups.  Back in those days, managers were less concerned with playing matchups and platoons and you pretty much knew what the lineup was going to be without looking at the lineup card.  Here is the standard 1954 Giants lineup along with key bench players and the pitching rotation and key bullpen members:

Lineup:

Whitey Lockman 1B  .251/.318/.375, 17 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 2 SB, 73 R, 60 RBI, 638 PA.

Al Dark SS.                .293/.325/.446, 26 2B, 6 3B, 20 HR, 5 SB, 98 R, 70 RBI, 693 PA.

Don Mueller RF         .342/.363/.444, 35 2B, 8 3B, 4 HR, 90 R, 71 RBI, 657 PA.

Willie Mays CF          .345/..411/.667, 33 2B, 13 3B, 41 HR, 119 R, 8 SB, R, 110 RBI, 641 PA.

Hank Thompson 3B   .263/.389/.482, 18 2B, 3B, 26 HR, 3 SB, 76 R, 86 RBI, 557 PA.

Monte Irvin LF           .262/.363/.438, 13 2B, 3 3B, 19 HR, 7 SB, 62 R, 64 RBI, 512 PA.

Davey Williams 2B    .222/.284/.316, 18 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 65 R, 46 RBI, 601 PA.

Wes Westrum C          .187/.315/.305, 3 2B, 3B, 8 HR, 25 R, 27 RBI, 299 PA.

Bench:

Ray Katt C                 .255/.314/.435, 7 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 26 R, 33 RBI, 227 PA.

Dusty Rhodes OF      .341/.410/.695, 7 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 31 R, 50 RBI, 186 PA.

Starting Rotation:

Johnny Antonelli(L)  21-7, 2.30, 258.2 IP.

Ruben Gomez(R)      17-9, 2.88, 221.2 IP.

Sal Maglie(R)            14-6, 3.26, 218.1 IP.

Jim Hearn(R)            8-8, 4.15, 130.0 IP.

Don Liddle(L)           9-4, 3.06, 126.2 IP.

Relievers:

Marv Grissom(R)     10-7, 2.35, 122.1 IP, 17 Saves.

Hoyt Wilhelm(R)      12-4, 2.10, 111.1 IP, 7 Saves.

Windy McCall(L)     2-5, 3.25, 61 IP, 2 Saves.

Overall a much weaker lineup than the 1951 team except Mays and Mueller had stupendous seasons to pick up the slack for an otherwise aging group.  Dusty Rhodes put up insane numbers in a small sample(just under 1/3 of a season's worth of PA's).  He was more of a platoon LF than a bat off the bench down the stretch and in the World Series and even batted cleanup with Mays moving down the lineup late in the season.  Larry Jansen was used mostly in relief while Sal Maglie and Jim Hearn were on the downside of their careers.  Johnny Antonelli and Ruben Gomez picked them up to lead the rotation.  We profiled the key roles Marv Grissom and Hoyt Wilhelm played in our last Blast from the Past post.

Hot Stove League Review: Mets

This was Brodie Van Wagenen's sophomore Hot Stove League.  His first was widely considered a disaster after he traded potential future hall-of-famer, Jarred Kelenic, for Edwin Diaz and a rapidly aging Robinson Cano.  There were no such blockbuster trades or free agent signings this time as Van Wagenen leaned into looking for bounceback and breakout candidates, mostly on the pitching side.

Free Agents Lost:  Aaron Altherr(OF), Luis Avilan(LHP), Rajai Davis(OF), Todd Frazier(3B), Donnie Hart(LHP), Juan Lagares(OF), Joe Panik(2B), Rene Rivera(C), Zack Wheeler(RHP).

Free Agents Signed:  Dellin Betances(RHP), Rick Porcello(RHP), Michael Wacha(RHP), Brad Brach(RHP).

Trades:  Acquired Jake Marisnick(OF) from the Astros for Blake Taylor(LHP) and Kenedy Corona(OF).

Waiver Claim:  Stephen Gonsalves(LHP).

Minor League Free Agents:  Matt Adams(1B), Ryan Cordell(OF), Max Moroff(IF), Eduardo Nunez(IF), Jarrett Parker(OF), Erasmo Ramirez(RHP), Yefry Ramirez(RHP), Rene Rivera(C), Chasen Shreve(LHP), Joey Terdaslovich(1B/LF), Rob Whalen(RHP).

Summary:  Spending was probably limited by the Wilpon's ownership.  There is some upside in this collection of offseason acquisitions but a lot of risk too.  There is nothing to replace Zack Wheeler and losing Thor for the season is a big blow.  Not what you are hoping for a team that should be pushing for a postseason berth in a top 3 market.

Grade D.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Isaiah Greene

Isaiah Greene OF, HS.  B-L, T-L.  6'1", 180 lbs.

Isaiah Greene is riser on draft boards.  He's a speedy true CF prospect from Corona HS in California. 4 present tools with some projectable power.  Very fast with a 6.48 60 yd dash time.  Fell off radars his junior season trying to do too much in front of scouts, but had a strong showcase circuit this past summer and a strong early spring.  For comparison sake, he's faster than TJ McCants but the frame is less projectable.  I could see a team that took Grant McCray in round 3 last year being very interested in both Greene and McCants.

Hot Stove League Review: Braves

The Braves are coming off back-to-back NL East championships, have a nice core of brilliant young players and a strong farm system.  Having said that, it remains to be seen if they come out of this year's Hot Stove League with as good a team as they started let alone better.  Key Moves:

Free Agents Lost:  Josh Donaldson(3B), Dallas Keuchel(LHP), Julio Tehran(RHP), Matt Joyce(OF), Jerry Blevins(LHP), Billy Hamilton(OF), Francisco Cervelli(C), Anthony Swarzak(RHP), John Ryan Murphy(C).

Free Agents Signed:  Will Smith(LHP- 3 years/$40 M), Marcell Ozuna(OF-1 yr/$18 M), Cole Hamels(LHP-1yr/$18 M), Travis D'Arnaud(C- 2 yr/$16 M), Chris Martin(RHP-re-sign), Nick Markakis(OF-re-sign), Tyler Flowers(C-re-sign), Darren O'Day(RHP-re-sign), Adeiny Hecheverria(SS).

Trades:  None.

Minor League Free Agents:  Felix Hernandez(RHP), Josh Tomlin(RHP), Charlie Culberson(IF), Yonder Alonso(1B), Chris Rusin(LHP), Yangervis Solarte(IF), Peter O'Brien(C), Rafael Ortega(OF).

Summary:  A mixed bag here.  Ozuna is an upgrade in the OF at a nice price but doesn't fill the hole left by Josh Donaldson at 3B. Will Smith helps the bullpen if he is fully healthy which I am not convinced of, but at a big price.  Hamels might have some gas left in the tank but had shoulder issues in spring training.  Braves have to hope Austin Riley can get is K's under control and some of their pitching prospects can get over the AAA-MLB hump.

Grade:  C.

Blast From the Past: Grissom and Wilhelm 1954

Seems like the Giants have always been known for strong relief pitching from the Fab Four or whatever their nickname was with the championship teams of the 2010's to Felix Rodriguez and Robb Nenn of the 2000's, Greg "Moon Man" Minton and Gary Lavelle in the 80's.  The World Series champion 1954 team had an elite pair in Closer Marv Grissom and setup man Hoyt Wilhelm.

Both players arrived in MLB in their late 20's due in part to service during WW II.  Grissom was given a tryout by the Giants because he pitched against a service team in Okinawa managed by Johnny Mize who recommended him to Giants management.  Wilhelm served in the European theatre and received a Purple Heart from the Battle of the Bulge.  He taught himself the knuckleball as a kid from a picture showing Dutch Leonard's grip.  He seemed to be on a career minor league track when he was noticed by Leo Durocher who thought he could find a MLB role for him.

Grissom and Wilhelm saved and won many a game for the 1954 Giants.  It was a career year for Grissom but the just the beginning of a legendarily long and successful career for Wilhelm who went on to pitch for many MLB teams in multiple roles and eventually set a record for games played with over 1000.  Both pitchers usually went more than one inning and averaged right around 2 innings per appearance.  Here are their pitching lines for the regular season:

Marv Grissom:  10-7, 2.35, 56 G, 122.1 IP, 19 Saves.

Hoyt Wilhelm:  12-4, 2.10, 57 G, 111.1 IP, 7 Saves.

Their combined 22-11 record was like having another SP and their combined Wins and Saves of 48 gave them roles in just under half of the team's wins.  The pair made a total of 3 Appearances in the 1954 World Series pitching 5 shutout innings with Grissom earning a W in Game 1 and Wilhelm a Save in Game 3.

*Biographical information from SABR website and Stats from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Justin Lange

Justin Lange RHP, HS.  6'4", 190 lbs.

Justin Lange is yet another highly projectable pitcher in this draft class.  The frame is classic with plenty of room for added size and strength, which he may have already added.  PG has his FB at 93, but other less reliable reports have him touching triple digits this spring.  He's got a well-coordinated delivery that uses his whole body.  Releases is low 3/4.  Think a lefty version of Madison Bumgarner with a little less extension and a little more elbow action. Brady Singer is another comp that comes to mind.  Fangraphs has an up arrow next to his name at #64.  I don't see him in MLB Pipeline's top 100.

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Question about the impact of draft changes brought on by COVID-19 pandemic from the previous Scouting the 2020 Draft post.  Like Scott Thompson said in his comment, it's very hard to know, especially since new draft rules have yet to be finalized.  I'll offer what thoughts I can.

I think they have to keep the 2020 and 2021 drafts separate as combining them would be just too chaotic from a scouting/ranking standpoint.  It's totally understandable to push it back by a month or two or three until we have more clarity regarding how the pandemic is progressing or hopefully regressing.

As for length of the draft, look, the draft does not need to be 40 rounds.  Just look at the players drafted in rounds 30-40 and you know those rounds are purely for ****'s and giggles anyway.  The other dirty secret of the draft is that somewhere around the 15'th round, most teams aren't drafting potential future MLB'ers but drafting to fill out minor league rosters.  So, cutting the draft down to 5 rounds might be a bit extreme but if the purpose of the draft is competitive balance, that's really all you need, maybe even less!

The most disturbing part of the proposed plan is limiting the bonuses for undrafted free agents to $10 K.  Basically the MLBPA threw amateur players under the bus to free up money to support guys who are already union members.  Understandable, but that does not make it right.  Seems like there must be some avenue for a lawsuit in there somewhere.

As for how these changes might affect draft strategy, I have no idea.  I think you still go for the best player available at each draft slot.  I've never understood why you would take less than the BPA in round 1 where at least half the value of the draft is found, to save money for lesser players later in the draft where success is, at least statistically, a lot less likely.

With the Giants having 5 picks in the top 100 and an extremely deep draft, they have a chance to really turbocharge their farm system.  The system is currently stocked well enough so they can afford to take some HS players who might take longer to develop.  The system is weakest in pitching by a wide margin.  Statistically, the best return from the first round is college hitting so if a great college hitter is available there, I think that's what you take, but I'd like to see at least 3 of the top 5 picks used on pitching which is extraordinarily deep in this class.

Hot Stove League Review: Pirates

The Pirates got off to a stumbling start in the Hot Stove League.  Manager Clint Hurdle was given the boot after the season.  GM Neil Huntington spent a month searching for a replacement only to get the ax himself which then kicked of a GM search.  By the time Ben Cherington was hired to start the rebuild the Hot Stove League was halfway done.  Given all that drama, the resulting moves were not nearly as bad as they could have been.

Free Agents Lost:  Melky Cabrera(OF), Elias Diaz(C), Francisco Liriano(LHP), Steven Baron(C), Corban Joseph(C).

Free Agents Signed:  Jarrod Dyson(OF), Guillermo Heredia(OF), Luke Maile(C), JT Riddle(SS/OF).

Trades:  1.  Traded Starling Marte(OF) to the D'Backs for Liover Peguero(SS) and Brennan Malone(RHP).  2. Traded Dario Agrazal(RHP) to the Tigers for cash.  3.  Traded Parker Markel(RHP) to the Angels for cash.

Waiver Claim:  Sam Howard(LHP) from Rockies.

Minor League Free Agents:  Derek Holland(LHP), Robbie Erlin(LHP), John Ryan Murphy(C), Andrew Susac(C), Charlie Tilson(OF), Socrates Brito(OF), Tom Koehler(RHP- retired), Jake Elmore(SS/OF), Hector Noesi(RHP), Phillip Evans(IF).

Summary:  Pirates are in a rebuild phase.  I don't know too much about Liovar Peguero, but I scouted Brennan Malone for last year's draft and like him a lot.  Lot's of risk for very young pitching prospects, though.  Dyson is a decent short term replacement for Marte.  The lost free agents were all dead wood types.

Grade C.

Scouting the 2020 Draft: Bobby Miller

Bobby Miller RHP, College(Louisville).  6'5", 220 lbs.

2018:  6-1, 2.97, 66.2 IP, 21 BB, 55 K.
2019:  7-1, 3.83, 80.0 IP, 38 BB, 86 K.
2020:  2-0, 2.31, 23.1 IP, 9 BB, 34 K.

The pitching in this draft class just keeps getting deeper and deeper.  I don't think I've profiled Bobby Miller before but just noticed him sitting at #21 on the Fangraphs ranking.  He was well regarded as a 2-way player out of HS in 2017.  He's bean strictly a pitcher with Louisville where he has both started  and relieve with more success as a SP.  Big and strong with a classic pitchers body.  Very muscular in the upper legs and butt.  He has long arms with a long backswing and a 3/4 delivery.  FB has been clocked as high as 99 MPH.  Some effort in the delivery but strong enough to maintain velocity deep into games.  Effort sometimes leads to loss of command.  Backs up FB with a sharp slider, a split change and traditional change with lower velocity. MLB Pipeline ranks him at #48.

Blast From The Past: Dusty Rhodes 1954

The scout who signed James Lamar Rhodes to a contract gave him the nickname "Dusty" because "all ballplayers named Rhodes were called Dusty."  The story goes that the day he was signed, Dusty Rhodes played a semipro game in Alabama barefoot because he didn't know he was going to play and left his spikes at home.  He cultivated a reputation for being a country bumpkin in the big city with a taste for nightlife and alcohol.  He later downplayed this part of his life as a self parody for entertainment value.  For more colorful anecdotes of Dusty's off-field exploits, look up his biography on the SABR website.

He was a terrific lefthanded hitter but a terrible outfielder and spent a 7 year MLB career as a 4'th OF/lefthanded bat off the bench.  After struggling in a PH role his first two seasons, he became one of the best PH's in the history of the game.  His career year by a wide margin was 1954.  Here is his batting line for the regular season:

.341/.410/.695, 7 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 12.4 BB%, 12.0 K%, 186 PA.

That success carried over into the World Series in which Rhodes won Game 1 in extra innings with a pop fly HR down the RF line that travelled a little more than 257 feet.  He basically won Game 2 with a bloop single to drive in the tying run and later got up from a knockdown pitch by Early Wynn to hit a bullet of the RF roof as the Giants won the game 3-1.  He got his 4'th and final hit of the series in game 3 with a bases-loaded 2-run single to extend the Giants lead to 3-0 in an eventual 6-2 win.

He continue to enjoy success in a part-time/bench role in 1955 but his career tailed off after that.  After spending a very successful year in the AAA PCL in 1958, he played one season for the San Francisco Giants in 1959 exclusively as a PH.

Spring Training Update: Giants Release 17 Players

The Giants cleaned out some of their spring training logjam from both their major and minor league camps.  When and if spring training resumes, the focus will be on getting quickly determining the Opening Day rosters and getting players in shape to start the season.  These guys were not going to be in that mix, but let's give them a tip of the cap for a noble effort.

Jerry Blevins LHP- maybe a bit of a surprise but Jarlin Garcia and Wandy Peralta are also veteran lefties who were much more impressive in the early camp and have more potential longterm value.

Matt Carasiti RHP- Impressive in early camp but underwent TJ surgery.

Brandon Guyer OF- Strictly a RH platoon option, his exit ticket was probably punched when the Giants signed Hunter Pence. They also have Joey Rickard who can play that role quite well.

Minor leaguers released include Jamie Callahan(RHP), Israel Cruz(RHP), Dylan Davis(RHP), Logan Harasta(RHP), Trevor Horn(RHP), Andy Rohloff(RHP), Ben Strahm(RHP), Deiyerbert Bolivar(LHP), Chris Corbett(C), Kyle McPherson(2B), Gio Brusa(OF), Mikey Edie(OF), Jose Layer(OF), Randy Norris(OF).

No real surprises in this list.