Spring Training Update: Churning the Rotation

For the first time since 2010, the Giants start spring training without a pitcher who played on a Giants championship team on the roster.  Their projected rotation has a chance to be very good or a disaster. No modern MLB team can expect to get through a full season with 5 starting pitchers.  With that in mind, FZ concentrated on extending depth instead of retaining or adding an ace although it seems like he could have done both.  It's probably not a good idea to get too emotionally attached to this year's rotation no matter how good, as any or all could well be traded by the midseason deadline.  Let's break it down:

Jeff Samardzija:  Of the current SP's on the roster, Shark had the best season last year and deserves to be the Opening Day starter.  He's in the final year of a 4 year contract.  He's pitched well in 2 of the 3 years so far with an injury plagued lost year in season 2.  Early spring training reports are encouraging.  If he pitches well and the Giants don't do so well, he is a prime candidate for a midseason trade.

Johnny Cueto:  Johnny Cueto missed most of the last 2 seasons with a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery.  He came back at the end of last season but go pounded pretty bad.  He's documented his offseason fitness program on social media and might actually be in the Best Shape of His Life.  He may be the linchpin of the rotation.  As we all know, at his best, he is an ace, but we'd sure like to see him prove it on the field.

Kevin Gausman:  Kevin Gausman is like an older version of Tyler Beede.  A guy who has had elite tools since high school, but has never completely put it all together.  He was pounded mercilessly as a  SP with the Braves through the first 4 months of last season and was finally put on waivers.  The Reds picked him up and he was much better out of their bullpen.  Overall, his secondary stats were much better than is 5.72 ERA with a 10.03/2.81 K/BB, FIP 3.98, xFIP 4.05.  He's going to try to parlay a 1 year/$9 M contract with the Giants into a free agent payday next Hot Stove season.  The Giants are counting on him to bolster the rotation, although some analysts think he could be a dominating Closer.

Drew Smyly:  Giants fans may remember Drew Smyly from when he pitched out of the Tigers bullpen in the 2012 World Series.  He went on to have a couple of pretty good seasons as a SP for the Rays before missing the 2017 and 2018 seasons with a torn UCL and Tommy John Surgery.  He started 2019 with the Rangers and got pummeled for an ERA of over 8.  He then hooked on with the Phillies who were managed by Gabe Kapler and pitched much better down the stretch including a 10 K's in 6.1 IP performance in his final start.  Like Kevin Gausman, he'll try to parlay a 1 year deal into a FA payday come next Hot Stove season.

Tyler Beede:  After a disastrous 2018, Tyler Beede went back to the basics of 4-seam FB, curveball and changeup with a big jump in FB velocity and improved results.  More encouragingly, he got better as the season went along dropping his first half ERA of 5.64 to 4.73 after the All-Star break.  We'll have to wonder what might have been in his final start when he struck out 7 batters in 3.1 perfect innings before leaving with an oblique strain.  Beede has the tools to be an ace.  Maybe the Giants new development team can apply the finishing touches and get him there?

Logan Webb:  Logan Webb was all poised for a breakout season in 2019 and he had one, it just started 2 months later than expected due to a substance suspension.  Webb has steadfastly maintained he has no knowledge of taking any banned substance so hopefully that's in his rearview mirror now.  He pitched in Rookie, A level, AA, AAA and MLB last season.  Although his overall MLB ERA was 5.22, his secondary stats were better with an xFIP of 3.89 and a dominant GB/FB of 2.11.  Over his last 3 starts he pitched to an ERA of 3.18.  He was limited to 102 IP last season due to the suspension so don't look for him to pitch 200 innings this season.  He's reportedly reworking his breaking ball so we could even see him sent out to work on that in Sacramento to start the season. Otherwise, he's probably first in line for a rotation spot if one of the first 5 falter.

Trevor Cahill:  It sure seems like Trevor Cahill has been around forever.  He was a second round draft pick by the A's in 2006 but will be just 32 yo on March 1.  The Giants signed him late.  He struggled last year in the Angels rotation, but was solid for the A's in 2018.  His best recent season was 2016 when he pitched out of the bullpen to a 2.74 ERA.  I'm thinking he'll compete for a long relief/swingman role and try to move up as the season progresses.

Tyler Anderson:  Tyler Anderson was a solid member of the Rockies rotation until last season when he struggled to an ERA over 11 and missed most of the season with a meniscus tear in his knee.  He was signed to a MLB contract but was expected to start the season on the IL.  He's reportedly ahead of schedule and could pitch in games this spring.  He'll likely try to establish a long relief/swingman role and try to advance it from there.  He has 1 MiLB option and is not FA eligible until 2022.

Shaun Anderson:  Shaun Anderson impressed early last season pitching several Quality Starts in the first half.  He struggled in the rotation in the second half but then had a jump in velocity when moved to the bullpen and even saved a couple of games.  His last appearance was a disaster against the Dodgers giving up 4 runs in 0.1 IP.  So Anderson is at a crossroads in his career.  Is he a starter or reliever?  Even at higher velocities he seemed to lack a strikeout pitch.  Likely starts the season in Sacramento.

Andrew Suarez:  Andrew Suarez was a second round draft pick in 2015.  Worked his way up the minor league ladder.  Made his MLB debut in 2018 and started 29 games(Wow!  I didn't realize it was that many!) with a respectable ERA of 4.49(xFIP 3.77).  Found himself back in Sacramento through most of first half of 2019.  Came up in August and pitched out of the bullpen.  From August 2 through the end of the season, he logged a 2.70 ERA in 20 relief innings.  He's got a starter's repertoire but after his performance in relief the coaches may have him pegged as a lefty reliever who can face 3 or more batters.

Conner Menez:  Another lefty starter in the minors whose future may be in the bullpen.  Conner Menez' first 3 MLB appearances were starts that didn't go so well.  He came back up in September making 5 scoreless relief appearances with 8 K's in 4.1 IP.  He may be a left reliever now too.

Dereck Rodriguez:  DRod struggled in 2019 logging a 5.64 ERA over 99 IP.  Is secondary stats were not much better with a 5.14 xFIP.  Gotta say, his stuff has never been that impressive and it seemed like he was doing it with smoke and mirrors in 2018.  Without a significant jump in velocity or the addition/refinement of some other K pitch, it's really hard to see a role at the MLB level going forward.  Could get lost in The Churn.

Tyson Ross:  Longtime Giants nemesis who is now inside the tent.  Tyson Ross has been plagued by injuries in recent years with just 1 decent season out of the last 4.  He's become something of a 1-pitch(slider) pitcher, but when it's on, the slider is very good.  Longshot to make the active roster as either a starter or reliever.

Luis Maduro:  FZ picked Luis Maduro up in The Churn claiming him off waivers from the Angels then successfully passing him through waivers giving the Giants a year to see if they can turn him into something. Unimpressive stats, but the scouting reports are more promising as he sports mid-90's velocity with a 4 pitch mix to back it up.  The Fangraphs Boys describe his low 3/4 delivery as "aqueous."  Spring training invite, but he'll start season in Sacramento or Richmond.

Sean Hjelle:  Sean Hjelle is in camp for a prospect look-see.  He'll likely start the season in AA Richmond but the Giants seem to be high on him.  If/when he makes his first start in the majors, he'll be the tallest pitcher in history to do so.

Putting It All Together:

If everything goes according to plan, I project the 5 starters to be Shark, Cueto, Gausman, Smyly and Beede.   Logan Webb will be in either extended spring training or Sacramento to work on his breaking ball and limit is innings.  Trevor Cahill will be the long man out of the bullpen and available to start if needed.  Tyler Anderson likely starts the season on the DL but will try to work his way into a MLB swingman role.  Everybody else on this list starts the season in the minors or gets lost in The Churn.