The Hot Stove was humming on Thanksgiving Eve. Drew Pomeranz and his family will have a whole of $$$$ to be thankful for tomorrow after he signed a 4 year, yes you read that right, 4 year/$34 M free agent contract with the San Diego Padres. Gulp! OK, I suggested awhile back that Drew Pomeranz was quietly the most dominating reliever in MLB after his trade to the Brewers. I got that from a Fangraphs article. Anyone who doubts the power of Fangraphs in MLB just needs to look at the contract Drew Pomeranz just signed. Goes to show how an "undervalued" player can suddenly become overvalued if enough people become convinced of their undervalue and start a bidding war and how once you name a sleeper or undervalued player, you just took away their sleeper /undervalue status.
OK yeah, it was a good idea while it lasted and the Giants have a lot of money to spend, but even I would never advocate for giving that kind of contract to Drew Pomeranz. So, wish him, but not the Padres the best. Giants fans can be thankful they got Mauricio Dubon out of the whole Drew Pomeranz experience. Happy Thanksgiving!
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The Padres also made a significant trade with the Brewers sending SS/2B Luis Urias and LHP Eric Lauer to Beertown for OF Trent Grisham and RHP Zach Davies. Not sure what to make of this trade. Davies and Lauer are soft-tossing innings-eater types without exciting peripheral stats. Davies has 2 years of arbitration left while Lauer is still pre-arbitration. I will say Zach Davies has turned in sub-4.00 ERA's in 3 of 4 seasons while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. He's a nice pitcher for the back-end of your fantasy pitching staff for W's and ERA although he's not going to help you much with K's.
Luis Urias has been a highly touted Padres prospect, but his AAA numbers coming out of El Paso are suspect and he hasn't found traction at the MLB level. Grisham was a pop-up prospect last year who has a so-so run in the second half for the BrewCrew before an unfortunate fielding gaffe ruined his and the Brewers postseason. The Padres apparently want Grisham to be a platoon partner with Manuel Margot in CF. The Brewers apparently want Urias to challenge Orlando Arcia at SS where it is unclear he is a significant upgrade.
IDK, it seems like there is less here than meets the eye. I'll call it a wash with maybe a slight edge to the BrewCrew.
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In a move that should get the attention of the commissioner and the MLBPA, the Orioles put IF/UT Jonathan Villar on Release Waivers. Villar had a tremendous season last year putting up and fWAR of 4.0 with 24 HR's and 40, that's right, 40 SB's. How is that not worth an estimated arbitration value of $10 M? Any team claiming Villar will be on the hook for arbitration and the O's were already apparently unsuccessful in trading him. If he goes unclaimed he becomes a FA where he will almost certainly get more total $$ but possibly at a lower AAV. Yo Farhan! I'm still waiting to be impressed. You get Villar and I will be impressed!
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RHP Kyle Gibson signed a FA contract with the Rangers for 3 years/$30 M. This seems about right for an innings eater SP who pitches to contact with a sinker which is exactly what the whole launch angle thing was designed to counteract. Despite his high GB rates he gives up a lot of HR's. Not going to get much help from his home crib on that.
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Kind of hard to figure why the Orioles couldn't get something better than nothing for Villar! A 1-year middle-infielder rental that hits and runs like Villar would be worth someone that would fit into Baltimore's Top 30 somewhere, but they say they didn't get an offer they wanted. So they take nothing? Go figure.
ReplyDeleteThis will work to Villar's benefit as a FA so the MLPBA shouldn't get too bent out of shape.
Just a few thoughts on Thanskgiving day while lying in bed sick...
ReplyDeleteThere are at least 9 teams by my count who are in rebuilding mode (Orioles, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Pirates, DBacks, and the Giants). At what point does "Tanking" to rebuild end up being riskier than the reward? If 9 teams are doing it you run the chance of being the 9th worst team in the league which gets you a much much less of a sure thing in the draft compared to a top 3 pick.
I'm wondering what the worst case scenario as a Giants fan could be next season and the 9th pick in the draft could be it. It would probably mean that Farhan didn't spend any money this offseason which makes sense when you're tanking. It would also make the Giants unwatchable but just good enough to be better than the other 8 teams trying to tank as well.
Although Belt and Posey and Craw and Longo aren't good enough as a core to compete for a playoff spot, they are just good enough to draw a few fans and win a few games. If this is the strategy for rebuilding (draw fans with old washed up stars from the WS years while trying not to win thus getting a better draft pick) I could see this strategy blowing up in their face.
Farhan has shown his ability to go crawling through other teams garbage while occasionally finding something that doesn't stink but is he capable of evaluating high end free agents as well like Rendon or Cole or Strasburg and the impact one or two of them would have not only on our record but attendance?
We laugh at teams like San Diego and their signings of Hosmer and Machado (best options at the time) but you have to make some additions through free agency to create a core to build around or supplement when needed. This is a pretty good free agent class and after not getting anyone last year, if they don't sign anyone significant this offseason we could be looking at some very dark years.
This leaves only one of two options in my mind this offseason. Trade Posey, Craw, Belt, and Longo for anything you can get and fully commit to the rebuild or sign some of the high end free agents and try to win not only this year but provide a foundation for your core for years to come. Anything in between is foolish and risky at best.
IMO, the Giants will never tank as an overt strategy.
ReplyDeleteThey may appear to tank, especially if anything untoward happens to their two aged starting pitchers, and the
Core Four C-IFers continue their regression which should be expected although we may hope that 2 or 3 of them hang around a 2 WAR. If they combine for a total of 5, SF could get some success if they can get something very positive from the OF. Where could that come from?
YtY might continue and produce 3+.
Pillar will be very lucky to do as well as last year but he, @ 31yo, is likely to continue his regression.
Dickerson could put up a 4-5 but he's far more likely to be hurt and play less than 100 games.
Duggar is still an unknown other than good D and bad health.
If they add 2 OFers who combine for 10 WAR AND an enhanced pitching staff holds up, they could contend for a WC like they did miraculously last year through July.
Over/under on that? 10-1 against.
That said, Farhan will make some moves to look like they're trying or attendance will tank and they'll be giving away food at Oracle to get people in. It's 100-1 that won't happen.
OTOH, Belt might be tradable without costing the Giants too much to move him, then they could move Longoria to 1B and make a splash on Rendon. That plus something positive in the OF and a credible SP, they could be interesting.
Otherwise, if Bumgarner goes to Atlanta or St Louis, that will make a good team to look at!
I've read that 2020 is a make or break year for Padres GM Preller and Angels GM Eppler. Both teams have had losing records the past 4 seasons. I'm willing to be patient with Zaidi/Harris since it takes time along with smart moves to turn things around. I may be the only one who thinks Zaidi did a good job with making the roster more flexible payroll wise, thanks to whiffing on Harper. I've wondered if Evans/Sabean had gone to a soft rebuild route in 2018, Evans would still be GM today. I think Zaidi will look at the trade route and selected free agents to improve the roster, but I'll be surprised if there is a blockbuster move.
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