Free Agent Market: With Hunter Pence re-signed by the Giants, the top available OF's on the free agent market are Shin Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury and Nelson Cruz. All 3 will command contracts within hailing distance of Hunter Pence's. They will all most likely come with a Qualifying Offer attached. None of them play LF, although I am sure they could. Whether they would want to is another story. If someone else out there has a favorite sleeper target, I'd like to hear about it. To my eye, the rest of the OF FA market is a dry, dusty wasteland. Based on Brian Sabean's dismissal of it, I'm guessing he sees it in a similar light. In short, the Giants are not going to solve their perceived LF problem through this year's FA market.
One guy who may or may not come available later in the offseason is Justin Ruggiano from Miami. He's been pushed aside by Marcel Ozuna and Jake Marisnek and is arbitration eligible with an estimated arbitration award by MLBTR of around $3 M. He had a down year in BA(.220) but still hit 18 HR's and stole 15 bases. His BABIP of .265 would suggest room for his BA to rebound. He could be available on the cheap if the Marlins non-tender him. A trade would stick the Giants with the arbitration case and would cost a low level prospect. Just a thought. We'll talk more about him later in the post.
Trade Market: We'll get this out of the way up front: Giancarlo is not coming here! Again, if anyone has a favorite trade target not named Giancarlo Stanton, I'm all ears. Mark Trumbo is probably available, but he is terrible defensively in LF and the Angels are not going to just give him away. Sabes more or less dismissed the trade market too and I have to say I'm not seeing it either.
Brandon Belt: Brandon Belt has played a few innings of LF in the past and seems like he has the tools to be at least passable out there, if not above average. He certainly has the bat to play there. If he were to make the move, it would open a hole at first base. Buster Posey is the obvious in-house candidate, but Sabes declared at the State of the Giants presser that Buster will be the starting catcher next year. Brett Pill is great guy to root for, but do you really turn 1B over to him? If you would, hasn't Pill actually played more LF than Belt the last 2 seasons?
On the surface, the FA market at 1B looks more promising, but Mike Napoli is going to be expensive and has long term health concerns and the Mariners have declared they are going to slap a QO on Kendrys Morales which makes him a lot less appealing. There is Mark Trumbo on the trade market, but again, the Angels are going to want some serious pitching in return. That leaves IFA Jose Abreu. The Giants seem to be doing some serious tire kicking on him, but the CW has him more likely going to an AL team.
I think most people see Gregor Blanco as more of a 4'th OF. I have to say that is pretty much how I think of him too, but recently something caught my eye that made me re-think that. I think it was someone here made a comment that Blanco's WAR score over the last 2 years is approximately equal to Carlos Beltran's. Wait! What? I decided to look up Blanco's stat sheet on Fangraphs. Sure enough, he had a WAR of 2.3 in 2012 and 2.8 in 2013 while Beltran's 2 year WAR was 5.3, just 0.2 higher than Blanco's 5.1. I decided to look up leaders by WAR and found that in 2013, Blanco's 2.8 was the 28'th highest in MLB. That's right, 28'th highest!
There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball. That means that, base on WAR criteria, there are at least 3 MLB teams on which Gregor Blanco would have been the top OF! Now, there are some caveats to this. WAR is not a perfect measure of value and is dependent on a combination of hitting, fielding, baserunning and position value. Right off the bat, Blanco gets much of his WAR value from defense and he got extra credit for playing CF more than he played LF due to Pagan's injury. On the other hand, before you go looking for a replacement and bump him down to #4, you better be sure you are getting an upgrade. While WAR is not a perfect measurement, it also is not terrible and should be take seriously, especially since his 2 year average is also very respectable suggesting that the 2.9 is not a fluke.
While I am completely on board with the Giants exploring other options for LF this offseason, they could do a lot worse than stand pat with Blanco and possibly a RH hitting platoon partner. Juan Perez anyone?
Brandon Belt: Brandon Belt has played a few innings of LF in the past and seems like he has the tools to be at least passable out there, if not above average. He certainly has the bat to play there. If he were to make the move, it would open a hole at first base. Buster Posey is the obvious in-house candidate, but Sabes declared at the State of the Giants presser that Buster will be the starting catcher next year. Brett Pill is great guy to root for, but do you really turn 1B over to him? If you would, hasn't Pill actually played more LF than Belt the last 2 seasons?
On the surface, the FA market at 1B looks more promising, but Mike Napoli is going to be expensive and has long term health concerns and the Mariners have declared they are going to slap a QO on Kendrys Morales which makes him a lot less appealing. There is Mark Trumbo on the trade market, but again, the Angels are going to want some serious pitching in return. That leaves IFA Jose Abreu. The Giants seem to be doing some serious tire kicking on him, but the CW has him more likely going to an AL team.
I think most people see Gregor Blanco as more of a 4'th OF. I have to say that is pretty much how I think of him too, but recently something caught my eye that made me re-think that. I think it was someone here made a comment that Blanco's WAR score over the last 2 years is approximately equal to Carlos Beltran's. Wait! What? I decided to look up Blanco's stat sheet on Fangraphs. Sure enough, he had a WAR of 2.3 in 2012 and 2.8 in 2013 while Beltran's 2 year WAR was 5.3, just 0.2 higher than Blanco's 5.1. I decided to look up leaders by WAR and found that in 2013, Blanco's 2.8 was the 28'th highest in MLB. That's right, 28'th highest!
There are 30 teams in Major League Baseball. That means that, base on WAR criteria, there are at least 3 MLB teams on which Gregor Blanco would have been the top OF! Now, there are some caveats to this. WAR is not a perfect measure of value and is dependent on a combination of hitting, fielding, baserunning and position value. Right off the bat, Blanco gets much of his WAR value from defense and he got extra credit for playing CF more than he played LF due to Pagan's injury. On the other hand, before you go looking for a replacement and bump him down to #4, you better be sure you are getting an upgrade. While WAR is not a perfect measurement, it also is not terrible and should be take seriously, especially since his 2 year average is also very respectable suggesting that the 2.9 is not a fluke.
While I am completely on board with the Giants exploring other options for LF this offseason, they could do a lot worse than stand pat with Blanco and possibly a RH hitting platoon partner. Juan Perez anyone?
Wow, sounds to me like evidence that WAR is BS. Everyone here loves their stats but Gregor Blanco is no Carlos Beltran I'm sorry. The Cuban would be interesting and let Belt and Pill fight it out for LF with Gregor as the 5th OF. Otherwise I really don't see any options that make sense here. We don't have any trade chips that we are willing to deal and there aren't any impact OF's out there for the taking. The only guy that comes to mind that makes even a little sense is Alex Gordon. I don't know what it would take to get him but that would be the guy I would try to go after but no idea if it even makes sense (I'm pretty sure someone else suggested this a while back so whoever it was may be able to comment one way or the other). One other player I would like to see them try to get for 1B would be Encarnacion from Toronto. That team is a mess and Encarnacion would look really nice batting 4th in our lineup!
ReplyDeleteI think you can forget Alex Gordon and Encarnacion.
DeleteI will just say that while WAR has it's limitations, it is most certainly NOT BS!! Sure, I'd rather have Beltran when he's healthy, but he's missed a lot of games in the last 2 years and that is reflected in his WAR. There is value in showing up to play every day! Also, Beltran doesn't move around in the OF as well as he used to and so he gives up runs on D that you don't see when you only look at a slash line.
Correction on Beltran: He actually has had 600+ PA's in each of the last two seasons and his offense certainly blows Blanco out of the water, but his D has fallen off dramatically which hurts his fWAR tremendously. He's now had 3 consecutive seasons of negative UZR's in the double digits so it is likely not a fluke. His bad D we saw in RF in 2011? That was for real and probably the reason why the Giants did not try to re-sign him.
DeleteThe Giants probably don't use UZR but they have their own proprietary defensive metrics and have insisted on good D from their OF for many years now.
Hard to take comment seriously when stating that Belt would "battle" Pill for LF. The battle was over years ago, Pill has not even been a starter at the MLB level.
DeleteI am very much interested in a minor league deal for Grady Sizemore. Thoughts on that? I mean he does know how to take pitches and he probably isnt slow even after the surgeries although the SBs are probably history for him. maybe a little power too. theres really no reason not to give him a shot, the risk is incredibly small.
ReplyDeleteI think it is way past time for people to stop fantasizing about Grady Sizemore. When was the last time he actually played a game? That dude is DONE!
DeleteGrady Sizemore was a WAR horse from 2005-2008: 5.7, 7.8, 6.2, 7.2. He fell off to 1.8 in 2009 playing in just 106 games, -0.4 in 2010 and 0.1 in 1011 which is the year he played his last MLB game. Put a fork in him. He is DONE!!
DeleteBTW, Juan Perez, little Juan Perez ran up a WAR of 1.6 in under 100 AB's this season. Amazeballs!!
ReplyDeleteMike Morse - the Beast! He can fake LF, and then you super sub in Blanco or Perez. I agree, LF is just not that much of a priority for the Giants. Unfortunately for the saber folks who love to treat relievers like replacement parts, that's been the Giants approach to LF lately. Hey, if everybody is filling one need, maybe there is value somewhere else?
ReplyDeleteI would look at Trevor Plouffe as a trade candidate, he can also play 3b if Pablo pulls his usual. How about a 2-fer - go for Danny Murphy and Eric Young Jr. on the Mets? Sabean will have to throw in a shiny prospect, for sure...
Nate McClouth looks too lite, and David Murphy looks too expensive. Ruggiano was tied with Alex Rios for 18th in Hrs for OFs ages 26-32. Which is where you have to look.
Hoping for a bounce back from Chris Young could result in good defense, low BA and some open the box magic.
Giants should have taken my advice and signed Ryan Raburn last year...
Just looked up Trevor Plouffe. Just what is it you see in him? I'm really curious!
DeleteSaw a note that Michael Morse got shut down at the end of the season with a wrist injury that "could require attention in the offseason."
DeleteI kind of like Ruggiano's chances of bouncing back from a low BABIP season. Nice combination of speed and power and he gives you plus D in the OF. I'd wait and see if the Marlins non-tender him rather than trade for him, though.
How does tell whether a low BABIP is from bad luck or persistent weak contact (due to various {potentially} irreversible reasons, such as impaired eyesight, non-diagnosed injury, aging, getting figured out, refusing to adjust mechanical issues, etc)?
DeleteIt's a general question, not specific to any particular player.
The answer is, you can't, unless you watch the player on a daily basis and pick up flaws in their stance, approach, etc. That is the biggest criticism of the Sabers and their knee-jerk BABIP comments. They have no interest in looking under the hood to see what's making that grinding noise.
DeleteI guess my point here about Blanco is that if you could replace him with a Shin-Soo Choo, then sure, you'd do that in a heartbeat, but that Choo-Choo ain't coming to this town. When you realize, though, that Blanco had a WAR of 2.9 last year and 5.1 over the last 2 years, then the Chris Youngs and Dan Murphys and Justin Ruggianos of the world, the guys you are hoping might have a bounceback season don't seem so attractive anymore. Certainly not something you are going to go out and spend several $ M on.
Plouffe has flashed some good months where the bat really looks alive with a good power profile. If he had busted out all the way, he's untouchable. The Twins have a heavy hitter prospect coming fast in Sano, and while they have some good SP prospects now have really struggled to bring anything besides speedy CFs to the battle in the past few years. What Plouffe is to me is a gamble trying to snag a guy who is taking time to figure things out, his stats don't pop out at you, but he has flashed that ability in bursts. That's basically what I see. With the added bonus of being able to play LF, good arm for 3B. He mashes lefties right now, hasn't totally figured out how to be a good regular. (278/346/495 LHP 227/284/382 RHP)
DeleteGreat point about Ruggiano BABIP'in 264 this year.
http://puckettspond.com/2013/10/03/using-trevor-plouffes-september-performance-to-find-his-future-role/
DeleteHere's a twins fan view on him. Basically when do they cut bait on him is what the gist of that is. Superutility? Sounds good to me. Power potential? Yup. And a rep for... wait for it... being a hacker. The guys who just don't understand OBP, they might just be interested in somebody like that.
I like Blanco enough that I would be OK with him as a starter, all things being equal.
ReplyDeleteHowever, Posey is going to play 1B extensively in 2014, the Giants do not want a repeat of this season when his power petered out. So Hanchez will get a lot of starts at C and Posey most times will end up at first. We could keep Belt there then shift to LF but Bochy does not like to shift regulars like that, if he can help it, so I do not see how Belt not get made into LF. And this pursuit of abreu, who at best can play first, shows that they are OK with Belt in left.
If Pill does not tickle your fancy, then it at least means picking up a lower level starter who would be OK with missing starts (else why would they come here knowing Posey plays some at first?). Plus, Duvall and Villalona could battle for the spot, having done OK in AA, so they could leave the position in flux, just in case someone forces the Giants hand.
I somehow don't think Sabes is looking at it like that. He was pretty emphatic that Posey is the starting catcher. They are not going to basically sacrifice a position so he can play a few games at first base. More likely they will have Belt shag some flies in the OF this offseason and play some LF in spring training then have him play out there a few games when Buster plays 1B.
DeleteI was not saying Posey was not the starting catcher. It was noted in the pressed about Posey not getting enough rest, and as I noted in a comment here, Posey played a lot more games at catcher and less at first this season over last. The logical way to fix that is to play Posey at first more often. But Bochy also do not like to move around a starting player, keeping him at one spot.
DeleteBelt before did not deserve that curtesy but now that he is one of our better hitters, the only way Bochy can keep him at one spot is to move him to LF.
This also works for our offense better, I think. We can pick up a good LHH who is a platoon guy on the cheap, Pill could take the LHP starts, and Posey could take any starts, as necessary. There seem to be more LHH at first.
And this is not a sacrifice. It is about giving Pill more chances to start, plus perhaps a free agent flier, like they did with Huff. Arias could also play first. By mid season, maybe Duvall or Villalona is ready. Or if an OF, they could shuffle back Belt to first and do what you suggest. The Giants have been, as you put it, sacrificing a position every year to give their position prospects a spot they could win. I just think first makes the most sense this coming season.
I understand you were not saying Buster won't be the starting catcher. What I'm saying is that the Giants are not going to downgrade 1B from Belt to Pill just so they can play Buster at 1B a few more games. I understand your reasoning. I just don't agree with it and I don't think the Giants are going to do it.
DeleteCool, OK, I was just reacting to your second sentence, seemed to imply that I didn't know that.
DeleteI would point out that the Giants have downgraded a position each year in order to leave a spot open for prospects that they either want to give a chance or to leave a spot open for them. They did that for a number of years to give Bowker and Schierholtz a spot to win, they did that with 3B for Frandsen until he unfortunately blew out his Achilies, they did it last season by platooning Blanco and Torres in LF to leave a spot for Kieschnick, Peguero, and Brown to come up and show them something, ironically it was Perez who showed the most (sudden thought, if Perez is so good defensively and Brown was rated higher in the minors defensively, could we expect as much from him defensively?).
You see it as downgrading 1B. I see it as shifting the position of openness from LF to 1B, with Belt moving to LF, And they could always shift it back during the season if one of the AAA outfielders finally break out, Belt probably won't be bothered as long as he's in the lineup.
I don't know where on Earth you get this crazy notion from, ogc, but the Giants have never, ever intentionally downgraded a position to leave it open for future prospects! That is just fanciful thinking!
DeleteThe Giants went with Blanco/Torres because Blanco put up a 2.3 WAR in 2012 and there was nobody better available on the FA market or by trade. It was NOT to leave a spot open for prospects!
DeleteI know the chances of this happening are slim to none but if they were sign Jose Abreu to play first base you don't think they could swing a deal for Giancarlo Stanton. The marlins are in the market for a first baseman. Belt is young and controllable for 4 more years. They could offer a package centered around Belt and Kyle Crick and 2 more pretty good prospects possibly Susac and Blackburn or Escobar. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteGiancarlo is not coming here!
DeleteMarlins are dark horse favorites for Abreu for their 1B hole!
DeleteFor whats its worth, there is a report by a MLB.com writer Joe Frisaro that the Giants are also "a favorite" to sign Jose Abreu according to a source.
DeleteLG
Since Belt had an fWAR last year of 4.0, and Stanton had 2.3, I am not so sure I would want to offer the Marlins Belt plus three of our best minor-league pitching prospects for Stanton. I know that Pato notoriously gives himself the pleasure of believing in his unaided eye over whatever the best stats say (as see above in this thread), but I would hate to see a refusal to look at the numbers become pandemic among many bloggers here. In two of the last three years, Stanton has produced less in terms of fWAR than Belt did in 2013; and the great hoo-ha over having him makes me wonder whether long-ball glamor, on particular display in one year, 2012, but not so much in the other two of Stanton's brief career, has oudazzled a more rational perspective.
DeleteI would add that Belt and Stanton had about the same wRC+ last year (B 139, S 135, but with B having more ABs). If I understand this stat correctly, it suggests that Belt might be about as valuable in LF as Stanton, assuming the same so-so standard as to fielding and 2013 performance as one's measure. It's true that Stanton was quite superior in 2012 to anything Belt has shown so far, but per contra, also true that Belt made the crucial adjustments at the plate, as to grip and placement in the batter's box, only midway through 2013, so that his 2013 numbers are likely to be less good than his capabilities promise.
DeleteI'll say it again. WAR has it's limitations, but it is a very useful way of estimating the overall value of a player, especially when it extends over multiple years.
DeleteI agree with Campanari here. I am not sure I would trade Belt straight up for Stanton, let alone add in Kyle Crick and other prospects. Between Stanton's injury issues an Belt's upward career trajectory, Belt may well have the brighter future of the two.
Anyway, it's really a moot issue. Florida is not going to trade Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and even if they did, he would not be coming to the Giants.
I really hope this is the last Giancarlo Stanton trade proposal we see here.
Im a fan of signing Mike Moorse. I believe that it would provide insurance for Fat Panda, while bumping up Belt to the 3hole. Bat Moorse sixth and Panda 7th. That would prolly be the most talented LU since #25 left. Problem in real life is does he want to come here. Thats really the only "upgrade" from Blanco. Everything else is a sideways move. Pitching is where we have to win in the winter.
ReplyDeleteIn what way would signing Michael Morse have anything at all to do with Pablo Sandoval?
DeleteMorse is a fearsome hitter when he's health, which is almost never. He has played 1 full season in his entire career!
He is not just a poor fielder. He is an astonishingly bad fielder by any measure you want to use. His career UZR is -63 and most seasons he has been in double-digit negative range. He is pretty much a statue out on the field with stone hands and no arm to boot!
He hit just .215 this last season. The latest word on him is he was shut down by the Orioles on 9/28 with a wrist injury that will probably "require attention in the offseason."
If Morse is willing to come to camp on a minor league deal and prove he is healthy in spring training, yeah, OK, but I would not risk anything more on him.
those are all true risks. The benefit is he might be a dumpster dive. He can do one thing very well, hit home runs, and he has hit for high average in the NL with WAS for 3 years. I think there's some good risk-reward there, and its a short term gamble that can get discarded for the trade market if it isn't working out. Basically Morse is a prove-out version of Brett Pill.
DeleteI knew LF would be a point of contention with us "arm chair GMs" this offseason. So, my take:
ReplyDeleteAs much as everyone wants a power bat, to me, that and LF should not be our offseason priority. Pitching, pitching, pitching. We got Pence locked up, and can count on Posey have a better overall season, a healthy Pagan, a progressing Belt, and a more healthy Panda. So pitching has to be the next area we improve upon, even if the leftover resources means Blanco is platooning with Perez next season.
For real.
All other options at this point require gambles with unknown players, position changes, and big contracts. But when all of our bats are healthy, they are capable of scoring. As of right now, though, our rotation becomes pretty hittable after Cain and Bumgarner. That's the hole that needs to be filled.
But if I am going to pursue someone that makes sense, it would probably be via trade or a FA pickup to platoon with Blanco/Perez/Pill.
Lucky
I haven't parsed all of the Sabean presser yet, but I think the Giants agree based on that. The priorities that I got was that Sabean is pursuing Lincecum right now and that they are going to get another starter no matter what happens with Lincecum, which to me implies that should Lincecum sign elsewhere, the Giants will continue to pursue another starter.
DeleteMeanwhile he downplayed both getting free agents and international free agents, if I remember right.
giants prob wasnt that they didnt have a lf, it was that they had no depth for either cf or rf and therefore the plan to platoon, went down the toilet
ReplyDeletemore important for the org to work on depth in every position
ot...if you all havent seen, donnie (i really dont know) baseball, is getting ripped for his on field moves in game 2....pretty much why i picked the bums to fold in the post....reg season is diff than post and even though donnie dumdum has been there as a player, it didnt transfer
oh, and the whole "vin is broadcasting all post season on radio" huge scam....only does the first and last 2....false advertising...im gonna sue
flem sounds great on national radio
doofus done lost another job when his employers finally realized that he cant win in post season...he will get you there, but thats it...and for the second time, he played the race card
i know he wants a ring...he really should find a place that is close, and become a special assistant
bacci
Depth is an obvious concern. Certainly, we didn't have enough. At the same time, you can't always plan for the degree of injury bug we got early in the year.
DeleteWe definitely need to make sure there's plan B somewhere, whether on the bench or waiting in the minors. As far as the farm goes, we'll be in a little better shape as players move up a level. Perez is on the cusp of filling a Blanco-type role, Escobar could easily be considered an option if one of our starters goes down (and maybe/probably a late-season callup anyway), Hembree and Dunning will be ready to contribute.
Still, no veterans. I'm sure some will be added.
Lucky
Torres had a terrible year at the plate and on defense. That is what got exposed when Pagan went down. Blanco did OK but went into a terrible slump in July and August when everyone else was slumping too.
DeleteIMO, Scutaro's defensive problems and Pablo being out of shape and terrible on D in the first 2/3's of the season were bigger factors than the OF. Also, the pitching was the biggest factor of all in the outcome of the season.
Bacci! Where you been? Slumming it over at Pav's blog. Donnie Baseball went agro when he should have just had his guy pitch to one of the worst hitters in baseball. Pitching chance and an intentional walk? Wow. And that young lefty has been good for them, but he hasn't really been tested yet. Jason Hey Hey says hello!
DeleteI hate to say it, but Wilson looks good. Ground balls, weak at that, is what he's getting. Haven't seen one bit of hard contact yet and he hasn't been walking fools either. He is experienced and motivated to prove out. Still a wack job though.
I agree doc, most of the defensive problems were infield related (and the pitchers definitely helped out on that front). Who would have thought that Torres would struggle with LF? But he did.
Giants need depth to cover 2B, SS and 3B. That's why this Alexander Guerrero guy makes a ton more sense than Abreu.
Bacci,
DeleteI don't think that's really fair to Dusty. Is it Dusty's fault that Cueto got shelled? Is it Dusty's fault that all of his best hitters are LH and sitting ducks for a pitcher like Liriano? It's certainly not his fault that Jocketty ignored his pleas to trade for Marlon Byrd who ended up with the Bucs!
Dusty might have been fired anyway, but Jocketty pulled the trigger when Dusty stood up for his batting coach and told Jocketty, "if you are going to fire him, why don't you fire me instead?"
The single most important job of MLB manager is keeping peace and good spirits in the clubhouse and dugout. Dusty is very good at that. The second most important job is managing the pitching staff. That's where I think Dusty comes up just a bit short. I don't think he really understands pitching, so he plays it strictly by the book and becomes unimaginative in critical situations.
Tyler Colvin is a FA. Never really put it together, but top pick/prospect, and has shown flashes. He just decided to get out of the Rockies organization.
ReplyDeleteI liked Colvin, got him in my old keeper league. I wouldn't mind a flier with him in LF.
DeleteAgain, I can understand why you might bump a Blanco down to 4'th OF for a 5 WAR OF like Shin-Soo Choo, but why on Earth would you dump a guy who has earned 5.1 WAR over the last 2 seasons so you can take a flier on someone you pull out of the dumpster?
Delete